Does Climate Change Cause Extreme Weather Now? Here’s a Scorcher of a Reality Check

Reposted from RealClear Investigations

By Eric Felten, RealClearInvestigations
August 17, 2021

The Pacific Northwest was hit with a record-shattering heat wave in June, with temperatures over 35 degrees higher than normal in some places. On June 28, Portland, Ore., reached 116 degrees. Late last week the region suffered another blast of hot weather, with a high in Portland of 103 degrees. The New York Times didn’t hesitate to pronounce the region’s bouts of extreme weather proof that the climate wasn’t just changing, but catastrophically so.

To make that claim, the Times relied on a “consortium of climate experts” that calls itself World Weather Attribution, a group organized not just to attribute extreme weather events to climate change, but to do so quickly. Within days of the June heat wave, the researchers released an analysis, declaring that the torrid spell “was virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.”


Cliff Mass, Pacific Northwest atmospheric scientist: An inconvenient dissenter from blaming climate change for extreme weather. Wikimedia

World Weather Attribution and its alarming report were trumpeted by Time magazine, touted by the NOAA website , and featured by CBS NewsCNBCScientific American, CNN, the Washington PostUSAToday, and the New York Times, among others.

The group’s claim that global warming was to blame was perhaps less significant than the speed with which that conclusion was provided to the media. Previous efforts to tie extreme weather events to climate change hadn’t had the impact scientists had hoped for, according to Time, because it “wasn’t producing results fast enough to get attention from people outside the climate science world.”

“Being able to confidently say that a given weather disaster was caused by climate change while said event still has the world’s attention,” Time explained, approvingly, “can be an enormously useful tool to convince leaders, lawmakers and others that climate change is a threat that must be addressed.” In other words, the value of rapid attribution is primarily political, not scientific.

Inconveniently for World Weather Attribution, an atmospheric scientist with extensive knowledge of the Pacific Northwest climate was actively running weather models that accurately predicted the heatwave. Cliff Mass rejected the notion that global warming was to blame for the scorching temperatures. He calculated that global warming might have been responsible for two degrees of the near 40-degree anomaly. With or without climate change, Mass wrote, the region “still would have experienced the most severe heat wave of the past century.”

Mass has no shortage of credentials relevant to the issue: A professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, he is author of the book “The Weather of the Pacific Northwest.”

Mass took on the World Weather Attribution group directly: “Unfortunately, there are serious flaws in their approach.” According to Mass, the heatwave was the result of “natural variability.” The models being used by the international group lacked the “resolution to correctly simulate critical intense, local precipitation features,” and “they generally use unrealistic greenhouse gas emissions.”

World Weather Attribution
World Weather Attribution was organized to quickly attribute extreme weather events to climate change. World Weather Attribution

World Weather Attribution was organized to quickly attribute extreme weather events to climate change. World Weather Attribution

WWA issued a “rebuttal” calling Mass’ criticisms “misleading and incorrect.” But the gauntlet thrown down by Mass did seem to affect WWA’s confidence in its claims. The group, which had originally declared the heatwave would have been “virtually impossible without human-caused climate change,” altered its tone. In subsequent public statements, it emphasized that it had merely been making “best estimates” and had presented them “with the appropriate caveats and uncertainties.” Scientists with the attribution group did not respond to questions about Mass’s criticisms posed by RealClearInvestigations.

But what of the group’s basic mission, the attribution of individual weather events to climate change? Hasn’t it been a fundamental rule of discussing extreme temperatures in a given place not to conflate weather with climate? Weather, it is regularly pointed out, refers to conditions during a short time in a limited area; climate is said to describe longer-term atmospheric patterns over large areas.

Donald Trump once joked, on a cold day in 2017, that he could go for some global warming

 … and his comment was denounced as “scientifically ridiculous” by Anthony Leiserowitz of Yale University, above.  But today it’s hardly unusual for climate advocates to conflate weather with climate.Yale School of the Environment

When Donald Trump joked, on a cold day, that he could go for some global warming, he was chastised for confusing weather with climate. The director of Yale University’s project on climate change communication, Anthony Leiserowitz, denounced Trump’s comment as “scientifically ridiculous and demonstrably false.”

“There is a fundamental difference in scale between what weather is and what climate is,” Leiserowitz added. “What’s going on in one small corner of the world at a given moment does not reflect what’s going on with the planet.”

Until recently, at least, climate scientists long warned against using individual weather events to ponder the existence or otherwise of global warming. Typically, that argument is used to respond to those who might argue a spate of extreme cold is reason to doubt the planet is warming. Using individual weather events to say anything about the climate is “dangerous nonsense,” the New Scientist warned a decade ago.

Perhaps, but it happens all the time now that climate advocates have found it to be an effective tool. In 2019, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago found that three-fourths of those polled said their views about climate change had been shaped by extreme weather events. Leah Sprain, in the book “Ethics and Practice in Science Communication,” says that even though it may be legitimate to make the broad claim that climate change “may result in future extreme weather,” when one tries “arguing weather patterns were caused by climate change, things get dicey.” Which creates a tension: “For some communicators, the ultimate goal – mobilizing political action – warrants rhetorical use of extreme weather events.” But that makes scientists nervous, Sprain writes, because “misrepresenting science will undermine the credibility of arguments for climate change.”

Which is exactly what happened with the World Weather Attribution group, according to Mass: “Many of the climate attribution studies are resulting in headlines that are deceptive and result in people coming to incorrect conclusions about the relative roles of global warming and natural variability in current extreme weather,” he wrote at his blog. “Scary headlines and apocalyptic attribution studies needlessly provoke fear.”

Sweltering in Portland.(AP Photo/Nathan Howard)

Covering the back-and-forth between the World Weather Attribution and Mass, the Seattle Times labeled the local atmosphere academic “a controversial figure.” The newspaper noted that “Mass has sometimes gotten into very public disputes with other scientists.” He has also been critical of the news media — “including the Seattle Times,” wrote the Seattle Times — for what he says is alarmist coverage of the climate. The Seattle Times did not respond to questions from RCI.

The newspaper was not wrong that Mass has disagreed with his fellow climate scientists. He didn’t hesitate to take on any and all comers at the Real Climate blog. But he doesn’t think that should make him controversial. “Science is all about conflict,” Mass has said. “Somebody has an idea; and then someone else criticizes it.”

Mass also counts as “controversial” because he spoke out last summer against the rioting and looting taking place nightly in Seattle. A recurring segment he had on Tacoma public radio was canceled after Mass – on his own blog, not on the radio —  likened the shattering of glass in Seattle to the shattered glass of Kristallnacht, the Nazi anti-Semitic pogrom.

The blogging professor laments that atmospheric sciences have been “poisoned” by politics. “It’s damaged climate science,” he told RCI.

And not just politics – Mass also says that the accepted tenets of global warming have become a sort of religion. Consider the language used, he says, such as the question of whether one “believes” in anthropogenic climate change. “You don’t believe in gravity,” he says. The religious metaphor also explains why colleagues get so bent out of shape with him, Mass says: “There’s nothing worse than an apostate priest.”

That goes even for those who are merely mild apostates. Mass doesn’t dispute warming, he merely questions how big a problem it is. “We need to worry about climate change,” he has said. “But hype and exaggeration of its impacts only undermine the potential for effective action.”

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August 17, 2021 2:08 pm

But it isn’t just the Pacific NW, is it?

This year it is record heat in Lapland, Siberia, W coast of Greenland, Greece, Sicily and Spain. Plus heatwaves in E Europe/Russia, Turkey, Iran…

Plus epic rain in Germany and China, exceptional Monsoon rain, heavy Japanese rainy season…

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 2:10 pm

So the Texas freeze and the coffee killing freeze in Brazil are just weather, as they do not fit The Sky is Falling CAGW narrative?

Marty Cornell
Reply to  Tom Halla
August 17, 2021 2:35 pm

yes. check your history

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 2:23 pm

There is epic rain in China all the time. This one occurred in 1931 and made the recent one there look like an afternoon shower.

Monsoons ebb and flow mostly due to the ENSO state. Next year when Japan goes through a normal season you going to come back here and tell us global warming has ebbed?

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 2:23 pm

Antarctic sea ice above 1979 levels griff. Aren’t you embarrassed to still be posting here? It’s OK, I know the answer.

…. and that’s before we even get to talking about Arctic Sea Ice levels and your credentials in incompetence on polar bears.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 2:27 pm

Yup. That is why this time of year is called summer. And some summers are hotter than others in some places. Happens every year. It’s called natural variability.

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 2:27 pm

But Griff, why are you conflating weather with climate? And, BTW, I’m still waiting for you to explain why we should sacrifice our lifestyle w/ drastic infrastructure changes when the Chinese are building coal-fired power plants as fast as they can. You do realize that we all share the same atmosphere don’t you? Sigh, I’m beginning to suspect that you suffer from the weirdly prevalent self-loathing syndrome that liberals carry like a torch…

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 2:28 pm

State your case in front of Chairman Xi and President Putin. They may have a work camp lined up for you and other espionage defendants.

Reply to  ResourceGuy
August 22, 2021 4:03 am

Russia isn’t the Soviet Union.

It has fewer political dissidents behind bars than the US.

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 2:56 pm

You’re lying again, griff. While the areas you mentioned set some records, with the exception of Spain they were either just local records or just daily records. Spain was the only one that set an All-time record for the country/region.

The highest temperature ever recorded was in the year;

Lapland – 1914,
Siberia – 1898,
Greenland – 1915,
Greece, 1977,
Italy – 2007,
Spain – 2021.

Here’s a list of the year of the hottest recorded temperature by continent.

North America – 1913,
South America – 1905,
Australia – 1960,
Europe – 1977,
Asia – (tie) 1942 and 2017,
Africa – 1931.

Try to look beyond the dishonest alarmist headlines, for a change.

Reply to  meab
August 17, 2021 3:06 pm

Wasn’t Australias hottest day around 1913 too ?

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 17, 2021 3:21 pm

The heatwave across Eastern Australia in 1896 that saw > 400 people die was probably the record.

But the BoM reckons that bit of (inconvenient) history can be ignored.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 17, 2021 10:51 pm

According to trove Australia, date unspecified, interior NSW over 130F.

“The equipment provided was not always up to the task. On the equipment provided for one of his later expeditions he remarks:
“The thermometers sent from England, graduated to 127 degrees only, were too low for the temperature into which I went, and consequently useless at times, when the temperature in the shade exceeded that number of degrees” Charles Sturt.”

Circa 1828. Of course Sturt was apparently a “know-nothing” /s

comment image

Last edited 2 months ago by lee
Climate believer
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 18, 2021 6:03 am

That temperature is unconfirmed at the moment, but if it does stand then it will break the record currently held by Athens of 48°C in 1977 for continental Europe.

44 years later Siracusa Sicily might get their 48.8°C into the record books, quite likely with all the heat hysteria floating around at the moment.

In 1999 Sicily recorded a temperature of 48.5°C, but this was never confirmed.

Gunga Din
Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 3:01 pm

And yet it was “cold enough” for my little spot on the globe to delay the normal emergence of the 17 year cicada by a few weeks.

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 3:04 pm

griff, the world is in change, all what happen you lament about are signs of the start of a coming cooling.time.

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 3:08 pm

Hi Griffo
On this 17 of August around 2 pm, hottest part of the year hottest part of the day it was 17C (63F) in SW London, most dismal August we are having here in the UK, as far as I remember, going back to late 1970s.
We have not seen more than an hour or two of sun for two or three weeks now.

B Clarke
Reply to  Vuk
August 17, 2021 3:51 pm

July we had for two weeks a summer its been fairly miserable since, mid West.

Reply to  Vuk
August 17, 2021 5:21 pm

I remember the summer of 1975 in London. Hot as hell!

Richard Page
Reply to  Optimus
August 18, 2021 6:19 am

But short duration – it was more of a spike in temperatures than a sustained increase.

Reply to  Vuk
August 18, 2021 6:09 am

Strewth we have been known to get 17c in Melbourne Australia in winter at times
In fact last weekend it was 19c both Saturday14 and Sunday 15 August last month of southern winter

Richard Page
Reply to  Vuk
August 18, 2021 6:18 am

The pattern IS changing. During the warm period of the late 70’s and 80’s we saw a pattern of overall warm weather with less extreme spikes of temperature. We appear to be going back to the pattern of the 60’s and especially early 70’s with overall cooler weather but with quite extreme high and low short-term spikes in temperature. The mean temperature will be lower but we’re likely to see hotter spikes occasionally. Of course that means when we see cold spikes they’re likely to be far lower as well.

Reply to  Vuk
August 22, 2021 4:05 am

See! The Climate is changing!

Gunga Din
Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 3:20 pm

The 1930’s, Griff.

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 3:46 pm

If you truly believe mankind is causing atmospheric heating, then just answer this simple question …

Reply to  John Shewchuk
August 17, 2021 7:31 pm

That background music would go well with Biden’s clown show, Build Back Burka.

Reply to  Scissor
August 17, 2021 7:38 pm

Or even a Biden video called — Make America Weak Again.

Mark Kaiser
Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 4:11 pm

I agree griff. Don’t forget The Roman Empire, Atlantis, Shangri-La, Never neverland and Hogwarts. They’ve been hit especially hard.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 4:20 pm

Well golly gee wilikers dumbfu$k, my air conditioner has been off for over a week in what is usually the hottest part of the summer. I guess that means we have global cooling going on.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Trying to Play Nice
August 17, 2021 4:49 pm

Your AC has been off?
Do you happen to live somewhere the grid has gone Green? 😎

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Gunga Din
August 18, 2021 11:37 am

No, the “grid going green” is going to result in the AC being off all the time, not just for a week.

Ron Long
Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 5:57 pm

griff, steal the children’s book “goldilocks and the three bears” and have someone explain the pictures to you, as regards weather: somewhere there is drought, somewhere there is flooding, and somewhere it is just right.

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 6:14 pm

Some warming Phoenix has not broke a hundred this week(the averaage high is about 106 this time of the year). Barely did last week, we are have 70 degree nights that is nearly 20 degrees below the normal. So some places are warmer and some places are colder big deal.

Last edited 2 months ago by MAL
Tom Abbott
Reply to  MAL
August 18, 2021 6:39 am

It was just weeks ago that Griff was getting exercised over some high temperatures around Phoenix. See, Griff, it was only temporary.

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 6:15 pm

Wow, out of the millions of places in the world, a half dozen had record heat this year.
Such a thing has never ever happened in the world. (Warning, extreme sarcasm.)

Epic rain in Germany happens every year, ditto for other places in the world.

Rich Davis
Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 8:21 pm

Did I miss your reply?

In which time period would you prefer to live your life?

[__] Benign low CO2 1675-1750
[__] “Dangerous” CO2 1950-2025

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 9:03 pm

Do you notice how often griff gets in with the first or second comment? They get paid more for that. 

They’re probably using some software to keep refreshing the WUWT home page so they can jump in right away when a new article is added. The software would also send an alert to their phone.

By the way, griff, what are your pronouns?

Richard Page
Reply to  Ralph Dave Westfall
August 18, 2021 6:23 am

Griffy has very simple pronouns, as befits his mind. The singular or plural forms of ‘idiot’ or ‘moron’ are perfectly acceptable.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Ralph Dave Westfall
August 18, 2021 6:40 am

“Do you notice how often griff gets in with the first or second comment? They get paid more for that.”

I wondered about that. The early bird gets the worm, right Griff?

Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 9:47 pm

It’s called weather. Most of the time weather is average but every now and then it gets extreme. It’s been doing that as long as the Earth has been around.

You didn’t mention the good old Oroville Dam in California, always in the climate change news.

In 2017 the dam almost failed when it was overtopped because of too much precipitation and high water levels reportedly due to CLIMATE CHANGE!!!
Now the dam can’t crank out hydroelectric power because not enough precipitation and low water levels reportedly due to CLIMATE CHANGE!!!

Ain’t CLIMATE CHANGE!!! magical?

Hari Seldon
Reply to  griff
August 17, 2021 10:19 pm

Dear Mr. Griff,

Info only for you directly from Germany: You can delete Germany from your list. The first epich rain in Germany has been documented in 1342 (“Magdalenenhochwasser”), and the death toll was about 60 000 (sixty thousand). The epic rain in the Ahr-walley in 2021 was only a small brother of the epic rain in 1804 in the same Ahr-walley (in 1804 was the water level at least 2 times higher), etc. To get a feeling about the “catastrophal global warming” in Germany, hier sind die actual temperature data from yesterday in our small German village (a mess station of the German MET has also been located in our village):

—Highest temperature yesterday (17. August 2021): 19 degrees Celsius
—Highest temperature on the same day (17. August) during the last 30 years: 32 degrees Celsius in 1998
—Average highest temperature on 17. August during the last 30 years: 25 degrees Celsius

—Lowest temperature yesterday (17. August 2021): 13 degrees Celsius
—Lowest temperature on the same day (17. August) during the last 30 years: 11 degrees Celsius in 1992
—Average lowest temperature during the last 30 years: 15 degrees Celsius

And so was also in May-June-July. In April we had even freeze.

Summary: The numbers speaks for themselves.

Another comment to the “epic rain” not in Germany, but a reference to Germany. According to the war diary of the German elite SS armoured division “Adolf Hitler”, the start of the offensive at Kursk (Russland) on 5. July 1943 had to be delayed significantly due to “an epic rain”. So let me allow to qualify “epic rain” as “business as usual” in the history of mankind.

Climate believer
Reply to  griff
August 18, 2021 1:45 am

A useful idiot– a person who is easy to persuade to do, say, or believe things that help a particular group. Otherwise known as Griff.

Compared to the last ten years July was generally colder over huge areas of the Arctic.
The Kara Sea coastline still remains locked in ice, blocking northern sea routes.
The southern route of the Northwest Passage through the channels of the Canadian Archipelago is still locked in ice and seems unlikely to open in any significant way this year. 

Greenland’s cumulative mass balance is above the 81-10 average, even after two extensive melt events.

In the Antarctic, sea ice extent increased faster than average during July, particularly in the latter half of the month. By the end of the month, extent was above the ninetieth percentile and was eighth highest in the satellite record.

ARCTIC Temp 202107 versus last 10yr 1200km AIRSv7.gif
Climate believer
Reply to  Climate believer
August 18, 2021 1:48 am

July 2021 vs July over the last ten years has been much colder in a lot of the world.

EQUATOR 202107 vs last 10yr 1200km AIRSv7.gif
Joao Martins
Reply to  griff
August 18, 2021 2:08 am

By saying that, Griff, you would NOT get your diploma if you had studied in the high school where I did. Back then, the confusion of weather and climate was a “capital” mistake (not only in my high school, at least in all high schools of my country; most certainly also in other countries).

Last edited 2 months ago by Joao Martins
Reply to  griff
August 18, 2021 3:38 am

Let’s ignore Holland,Belgium,France,Portugal,Germany being below normal for a couple of weeks now.

To bed B
Reply to  griff
August 18, 2021 3:55 am

It’s not even the Pacific NW, let alone just.

“Before the 2021 heat wave occurred, Lytton, along with the nearby community of Lillooet, shared the second-highest temperature ever recorded in Canada.[18] On July 16 and 17, 1941, the temperature reached a then-record 44.4 °C (111.9 °F) on both days in both communities.”

That is a lot less than the 49.6 on the 29th of June but Lillooet wasn’t so hot

“On 27 June 2021, the temperature reached 44.8 °C (112.6 °F).”

Just a peculiarity of the weather system or

“The next day, 30 June 2021, a wildfire swept through the valley in which Lytton is located, destroying much of the village.”

Regardless, the sort of weather system that occurred wasn’t a one in a 1000 year event. You can not even claim a one in a hundred. The record is too poor, too short and too corrupted by local changes to say that breaking a heat record by a degree makes it now a one in 1000 year event or due to climate change.

As pointed out elsewhere, a region that is 1.5% of Earth’s land area experienced extreme heat. If perfectly random, such an actual one in 100 year event affecting 1.5% of the globe happens somewhere every one and half years. A one in a thousand somewhere every 15.

Reply to  griff
August 18, 2021 4:22 am

Griffypoo, you really have to pay more attention. One summer does NOT make climate change. PERIOD! And the fact that you’ve ignored snow on the beaches of Brazil about 10 years ago (give or take a few) says LOTS about you. I hope you get snowed in some day. Then you can find out what it’s like to shovel your way off your front steps. Read up on the Chicago Blizzard of 1967 and the Next Big Deal in Chicago’s Snowy Weather in February 2011. Happens all the time.

Now, be a good fellow and go make yourself some ice tea and take a chill pill, willya?

Last edited 2 months ago by Sara
Al Miller
Reply to  griff
August 18, 2021 10:53 am

Please explain (with real actual science) the late 1800’s through the 1930’s extreme heat events for all of us children.

Bill Powers
Reply to  griff
August 19, 2021 9:24 am

At any moment in human history some place on the planet has had, is having or will have bad “Climate” as you alarmist have come to refer to the natural variability of weather events.

For example, while this weather event in Pacific Northwest, USA was happening, those of us in the Mid-Atlantic USA were have an unusually pleasant summer.

You know Griff, it is quite strange, to the rest of us, how selective you alarmists are about your end of days observations.

August 17, 2021 2:10 pm

Great essay. Don’t know why the unusual freezes and snows in Brazil, South Africa, Argentina, Australia and New Zealand this winter haven’t made the headlines with this same group?

Rud Istvan
Reply to  rbabcock
August 17, 2021 2:28 pm

It was supposed to be global warming, not global cooling.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  rbabcock
August 17, 2021 3:02 pm

Yes, like the 3 day heatwave on Greenland that melted enough snow and ice to flood Florida to a depth of 3″ or whatever the metric was. But the previous and subsequent unprecedented gains failed to trouble the typesetters.

August 17, 2021 2:14 pm

I really despise the concept of appealing to authority to do something about people spreading propaganda, but it really is long past time that scientists are held to account for their predictions when they fail to manifest themselves.

We might concede the future is in some ways predictable, but to terrorise the public with predictions into the future that even financial institutions won’t consider is just criminally irresponsible.

Neil Ferguson has proven to be spectacularly wrong from a public perception but is still allowed to spread his predictions, doubtless under cover of “If we hadn’t taken the actions I recommended we would all be dead”.

This lunacy continues.

The upshot is that, this is the end of science if it all continues.

Last edited 2 months ago by HotScot
Reply to  HotScot
August 17, 2021 2:30 pm

I’m in the private sector (thank God), but I did have an Adjunct teaching position in the University of California system for 25 years and what I predicted would happen 20 years ago is starting to happen. Many people just think that all scientists are worthless nutjobs right now. and some will be out of work because they didn’t expose the climate liars. I tried. I failed.

Thomas Gasloli
Reply to  philincalifornia
August 17, 2021 4:47 pm

“Many people just think all scientists are worthless nutjobs…”
Well, not all, just the ones at the universities and the CDC.😃

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Thomas Gasloli
August 18, 2021 6:50 am

I got a call from supposedly the CDC out of Chicago yesterday.

I didn’t answer it as it looked like a spammer to me. At least, I haven’t heard that the CDC was calling everyone in the United States so I assumed it was a spammer/scammer.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Thomas Gasloli
August 18, 2021 11:45 am

And NASA, and the EPA, and so on, and so on, and so on.

Brent Qually
Reply to  HotScot
August 17, 2021 5:42 pm

I used to have great respect for scientists, but now view them with great suspicion as part of their new cohort that includes politicians, lawyers, Nigerian princes, etc.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Brent Qually
August 18, 2021 6:54 am

All the scientific associations have been corrupted over alarmist climate science. Their focus is politics now, not science.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Brent Qually
August 18, 2021 11:46 am

Snake Oil Salesmen seems to fit nicely all too often.

Last edited 2 months ago by AGW is Not Science
Reply to  HotScot
August 17, 2021 6:20 pm

How does that old Russian quote go?

The future is perfectly predictable, it’s the past that is always changing.

Reply to  HotScot
August 17, 2021 7:55 pm

This really hurts as someone who spent 40 years doing science as honestly as I could.

Reply to  HotScot
August 17, 2021 10:33 pm

Fergusons predictions have been spectacularly wrong for the last 20 years

Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Reply to  Redge
August 18, 2021 3:19 am

and fergusons still employed and walks free
there really is NO justice!

Rud Istvan
August 17, 2021 2:23 pm

Having lost the climate predictions battle (polar ice, children knowing snow), losing the renewables work (NOT) at moderate penetration battle, the warmunists now move on to the rapid response weather is climate (NOT) propaganda battle. Where folks like Cliff Mass can blow them up on attribution. Cliff explained the recent heat cause was a fuehn wind, like people in northern Italy and Bavaria experience regularly.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 17, 2021 8:17 pm

foehn or Föhn

Reply to  Rich Davis
August 17, 2021 8:46 pm

Commonly called a CHINOOK wind in Eastern Washington when the winds descend the slopes of the Cascades during winter, the snow eater has arrived when temperature suddenly goes up and the gutters quickly fill a small river.

Was a regular event during the 1960’s and 1970’s, haven’t seen one in 40 years now.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Sunsettommy
August 17, 2021 9:44 pm

Every year in Alberta

Just ask DiCaprio

H. D. Hoese
August 17, 2021 2:25 pm

Decades ago I was told from good authority that the legal profession would become corrupt when they allowed advertising. World Weather Attribution, among others, looks like advertising. Let the buyer beware!

August 17, 2021 3:01 pm

It’s not clear, if these “World Weather Attribution” guys are faster than griff with their attributions. 😀

Rich Davis
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 17, 2021 8:19 pm

Are you kidding? The griifter attributes predicted events that don’t even happen, long before they don’t happen.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 18, 2021 11:54 am

Well, this “climate attribution science” is fast because it doesn’t take much “analysis.”

Basically, it goes like this:

Temperature hot, or “above average” = “climate change”
Weather “bad” = “climate change”

Temperature cold, or “below average” = “natural variation”
Weather “good” = “natural variation”

A six year old can apply their methodology in no time at all.

The better trick, of course, is to understand that attribution “science” = pure propaganda.

August 17, 2021 3:07 pm

Many regions are impacted by multiple weather patterns.
These weather patterns can be cold weather, hot weather, modulating related.
Recent extreme events in SE Australia have been caused be cold weather patterns which alarmists say should be reduced by CO2.

Here in Melbourne Australia alarmist say the Sub Tropical Ridge STR will become stronger, more frequent and move more south.
The STR will push the Souther Annular Mode SAM further south and reduce the likelihood of East Coast Lows ECL
SAMs and ECLs bring are cold weather events that bring rain.
An extreme rain SAM or ECL event is evidence that CAGW is wrong.

August 17, 2021 3:13 pm

This article demonstrates a misunderstanding of Attribution modeling.
Unless this author, and others of the same ilk, include an accurate description of how attribution (or, more accurately, causal) modeling, he is no more credible than the old-school deniers.

Reply to  chris
August 17, 2021 3:21 pm

Attribution modeling is the method advertisers use to determine the value of different channels on their marketing efforts.

Dave Fair
Reply to  chris
August 17, 2021 4:08 pm

You can model anything after-the-fact. Cliff Mass modeled it accurately before-the-fact without relying on CliSciFi practitioners’ lies. Did you read Cliff’s explanation of the unusual weather event? There is no such thing as a “climate” event nor even the most extreme event being caused by climate change. Honest scientists pointed that out long ago, but now remain silent when the “attribution” hustlers begin shouting headlines.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  chris
August 17, 2021 4:44 pm

Please list the “old-school deniers” of whom you type.

Reply to  Carlo, Monte
August 17, 2021 9:02 pm

Looks like that ain’t gonna happen. I’d be interested in what old-school deniers are supposed to be denying. Arrhenius (1896)? Canals on Mars?

Reply to  chris
August 17, 2021 6:23 pm

Is attribution modelling the buzz word being suggested by the latest talking points memo?

Reply to  MarkW
August 17, 2021 8:56 pm

Probably. As with everything else these loonies chant, it’s just missing the word phony- in front of it.

Reply to  chris
August 17, 2021 8:49 pm

LOL, Dr. Mass and his fellow Meteorologist’s very accurately modelled the heatwave event days before it arrived.

Then explained what happened afterwards in detail, it seems you missed the blog articles on this two months ago……

Joao Martins
Reply to  chris
August 18, 2021 2:36 am

“include an accurate description of how attribution (or, more accurately, causal) modeling”

“Attribution” or, as you like better, “cause” of WHAT?

If your point is getting reparation money from someone, you must specify the cause of the injury and make a relation to a wrongdoing of that someone.

That is to say, segregating (separating, detaching) something, in your insurance policy, from its stated “Act Of God”, and specifying what is that special “cause” and how it produces its effects.

This is a very crude summary of what is called climate, or weather, “attribution”.

It is not searching for the truth: it is just searching for an acceptable, “reasonable” chain of events going (backwards) from the injury which justifies asking for reparation back to whatever you wish that may convince the jury or the judge.

Nothing else.

It is called “justice”, not “science”.

John Bell
August 17, 2021 3:13 pm

The weather CHANGES! So get scared and pay me more…MORE!!

Bruce of Newcastle
August 17, 2021 3:27 pm

The Oregon heatwave in June was clearly a jet stream blocking event, with a big Rossby wave channeling hot air up from the deserts of Baja California. The same style of Rossby wave patterns were behind the record temperatures in Spain and Greece in the last few weeks.

We’ve been seeing alternate events of hot then cold then hot then cold in the mid latitudes from these jet stream patterns. The Texas cold event and near statewide blackout was an example of such a cold air intrusion from the high latitudes.

We are in the same phase of the 11 year solar cycle as when the Great Moscow Heatwave occurred in 2010, which was a blocked sinuous jet stream. Whereas the Oregon heatwave was linked to the jet stream getting stuck on the Rockies, the Moscow one got stuck on the Urals and the heatwave extended for a month.

At that time on the other side of the same Rossby wave Pakistan was hit by devastating floods in 2010. From the same pattern. This year we’ve seen similar floods in Germany and China.

Solar scientist and IPCC lead author Mike Lockwood pointed out in 2010 that low solar activity leads to increased occurrences of jet stream blocking. We are again at the bottom of the solar cycle and guess what?

August 17, 2021 3:35 pm

The IPCC intentionally muddies the water on extreme weather events.
They highlight extreme precipitation and extreme drought which are not opposites.
This is to fool people like Griff who believe that more rain equals flood and less rain equals drought and both occur at the same place.

August 17, 2021 3:44 pm

Another cog in the CNN industrial lie production complex.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  WXcycles
August 17, 2021 4:46 pm

Project Veritas caught them red-handed stating that, now that Trump is no longer President, they are shifting to around-the-clock climate fear hyping.

Reply to  Carlo, Monte
August 17, 2021 6:25 pm

It’s more than just Trump being out of office, they were crowing about how much they helped to drive him from office.

August 17, 2021 3:51 pm

Actual global climate-change is measured via mapping sedimentary deposits, not by clowns with thermometers, satellites and supercomputer models.

That scale of time duration isn’t ever going to change, no matter how much the ignorant time-wasters with GCMs want the ocean and atmosphere weather-cycles to be called a ‘climate-change’. They really have no clue what a global climate change is, very few non-geologists do have a grasp of what a global climate-change is.

Last edited 2 months ago by WXcycles
alastair gray
Reply to  WXcycles
August 17, 2021 4:22 pm

A Vailed threat then, a fourth or fifth order cycle. Maybe yoy should lay out the evidence more explicitly

Reply to  alastair gray
August 17, 2021 5:29 pm

It was done in great detail over the past 150 years of sedimentology research. People who think otherwise need only go and get an education about it from the one actual SCIENCE discipline that deals specifically with understanding the Earth and nothing else. It’s the same discipline from which the sub-discipline of palaeoclimatology arose, which is what the post-modern media “climatology” drivel and fluff pretends to be a part of, but isn’t, it’s rejected by people who understand what real global climate change actually looks like in sedimentary sequences.

If people really want to understand what global climate-change actually is, just study sedimentology, a specialization sub-discipline of geology, and you’ll grasp why all this IPCC junk is quite irrelevant fluff, and actually totally anti-science.

It deliberately ignores people like Bob Carter, an actual marine sedimentologist (i.e. an expert in climatic and sea-level change with time) plus he was an actual palaeoclimatic expert.

Thus the IPCC clowns made sure they ignored and excommunicated, and professionally crucified him. Especially the the corrupt and utterly gutless clowns at JCU’s upper echelon. Which tried to do the same thing to Peter Rudd.

If you want it laid out in detail with a literally rock-solid case, just read Professor Bob Carter’s books and other famous geo authors like Professor Ian Plimer that went to great length to educate people as to why the UN IPCC are pushing a load of completely anti-science nonsense.

Last edited 2 months ago by WXcycles
Reply to  WXcycles
August 17, 2021 8:08 pm

Thank you, thank you, thank you. I knew that there had to be some actual geologists/geophysicists still out there! All hope is not lost after all.

Chris Hanley
August 17, 2021 5:03 pm

“virtually impossible without human-caused climate change”.

Whatever the likelihood of or not of such extreme events in a generally warming global climate, ‘human-caused’ has been smuggled into the statement gratuitously to add to unjustified alarm.

Last edited 2 months ago by Chris Hanley
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Chris Hanley
August 18, 2021 12:04 pm

“Climate change” has also been “smuggled into the statement gratuitously to add to unjustified alarm;” there is no scientific basis for the suggestion that warmer climate leads to “more extreme” weather. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Michael in Dublin
August 17, 2021 5:30 pm

We need to worry about climate change

Sorry, but I believe the statement of Clintel and the over 900 scientists and professionals from all over the world that have stated, “There is no climate emergency.” I have been very impressed by a number of their supporters with their careful and cogent reasoning and their calm approach and sensible emphasis on adaption.

Last edited 2 months ago by Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
August 17, 2021 9:13 pm

Orbit geometry alone ensures massive climate changes. Within this millennium, ice will begin to accumulate on the high ground surrounding the North Atlantic and global oceans will be receeding. All existing marine infrastructure will need to be relocated as the oceans fall 30m over the next 12,000 years.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
August 18, 2021 12:05 pm

Agreed. Cliff Mass is still mired in the “belief” that human CO2 emissions have an “influence” on “climate,” in the absence of anything but “hypothetical bullshit” in support of that notion.

Peter W
August 17, 2021 5:51 pm

Personally, I am rapidly becoming a fan of Milankovitch Cycles, especially the big 100,000 year cycle. While the cycle is a long one, the interesting thing about it is that it both comes on rapidly, and departs equally rapidly. roughly speaking, the shape of earth’s orbit changes between nearly circular to more elliptical. When it is primarily circular our climate is relatively even. When it goes more elliptical, we get short, hot spells and longer cold spells.

I have been fascinated by that December conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in the evening sky; the two largest planets working to elongate earth’s orbit. It was followed very shortly by the notable cold spell which affected Texas so severely, and about 6 months later we have been having all these extreme heat waves. It will be interesting to see what we have for weather in about another six months.

Reply to  Peter W
August 18, 2021 12:03 am

It is not so much the eccentricity as the precession. The current cycle of glaciation began in 1585. The was the last time that perihelion occurred before the austral summer solstice. Since then, the Southern Hemisphere oceans have been getting less sunlight but the NH getting more. But SH winters get increasing sunlight and NH winters reducing sunlight.

More sunlight in the boreal summer increases the evaporation but less winter sunlight with higher atmospheric water means more snowfall. Snow begins to accumulate again.

The trend in SH cooling are already evident and it is likely that the greater annual variation in solar input is already apparent in the NH. In 12,000 years perihelion will align with the boreal summer solstice; that is when rate of glaciation will peak in the current precession cycle.

Before the current eccentricity related cycles linking 3 or 4 23,500 year precession cycle, glaciation was purely the precession cycle. Deep glaciation appears to have been caused by the closing of the Panama isthmus.

August 17, 2021 10:10 pm

World Weather Attribution, a group organized not just to attribute extreme weather events to climate change, but to do so quickly.”

Lol. Time is of the essence!

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Mike
August 18, 2021 12:09 pm

Yes, because the “rectangle addicted” crowd must have the “message” saturate them before their flea-like span of attention causes them to forget about the “weather news” the latest “climate” bullshit is being connected to.

Vincent Causey
August 18, 2021 12:25 am

I’d love to see these “weather is climate” propagandists spinning if future temperatures start cooling leading to unusual cold spells. Then it will be back to “weather isn’t climate.”

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Vincent Causey
August 18, 2021 12:10 pm

What tangled webs they weave…

Reply to  AGW is Not Science
August 18, 2021 1:07 pm

Not really. It’s a pretty straight line to “Global warming causes global cooling”. That’s where we’re headed. It’s already started.

August 18, 2021 12:57 am

Conspiracy to commit fraud is a crime. Either weather is climate or it is not. You can’t claim it’s not when it’s extremely cold and that it is when it’s extremely hot.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Doonman
August 18, 2021 12:10 pm

Sure you can. Just watch the “news.”

August 18, 2021 4:21 am

Ahhhh, climate change…!!!! That moment in time when things don’t “average out”, but manifest wild swings before they settle down. You could say the same thing about tornadoes, y’know.

But I have to ask: do all these Climate Changelings have short-term memory loss? Have they forgotten those nasty winters we’ve had since AD 2000, in which blizzards were almost as common as peas and carrots on your dinner plate?

Extreme weather events are W-E-A-T-H-E-R, not climate change. There are no sudden shocks, unfortunately for the CCMongers. A heat wave does not make anything but hot weather and runs up your electric bill. A cold wave does not make anything but (sometimes bitter) cold weather and runs up your heating bill.

What these uninformed souls do not understand (and likely never will) is that in order to have a real shift in the climate, the weather does not simply become extreme. It hits a prolonged episode of bad weather, like the drought that caused the Dust Bowl: that could have gone on for decades if the monsoonal flow out of the Gulf of Mexico hadn’t shifted back to normal. And even then, it was a drought and frequently quite cold, not a heat wave that lasted for ten years. It was Bad Weather, NOT climate change.

If anything happens at all, the planet will get chilly and the snow lines north and south will start to creep toward each other. That is something to worry about, if you really have to worry.

Still don’t understand what their objection is to a warm, user-friendly planet…..

Last edited 2 months ago by Sara
Reply to  Sara
August 19, 2021 12:44 am

That’s not what the UK Met Office says. and it gives stats to prove it.

Bruce Cobb
August 18, 2021 4:49 am

Can one fantasy cause another? Well yes, in the fantasy-land of “Climate Change”, any all things are possible.

Coach Springer
August 18, 2021 7:21 am
  1. I have a sense that the article needed to be a lot shorter.
  2. Sorry, Cliff. There needs to be an actual empirical explanation supported by unadjusted data before we go crediting any degrees of temperature to weather events. The assumption that 1.4 degrees is added to every temperature I experience every day is not supported.
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Coach Springer
August 18, 2021 12:13 pm

Agreed. And (also) in particular, the “need for action” needs to be justified. It isn’t.

Reply to  Coach Springer
August 19, 2021 12:44 am

Well exactly: a global rise of x degrees is not evenly distributed across all parts of the world, with temperature rises evenly applied across the year.

Ulric Lyons
August 19, 2021 7:04 am

Here is my advice for Anthony Leiserowitz

comment image

Bill Taylor
August 22, 2021 8:14 am

climate change “causes” no weather event and NEVER has…..the climate is a set of statistics, it is NOT a force, it has NO power and again NEVER causes any weather event.

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