Potsdam Institute Predicts Imminent Gulf Stream Collapse, Widespread Cooling

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to Niklas Boers of the Potsdam Institute, if we don’t curb global warming, a large scale “Day After Tomorrow” style cooling event could strike in as little as two decades.

Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse

A shutdown would have devastating global impacts and must not be allowed to happen, researchers say

Damian Carrington
Environment editor @dpcarrington
Fri 6 Aug 2021 01.08 AEST

Climate scientists have detected warning signs of the collapse of the Gulf Stream, one of the planet’s main potential tipping points.

The research found “an almost complete loss of stability over the last century” of the currents that researchers call the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The currents are already at their slowest point in at least 1,600 years, but the new analysis shows they may be nearing a shutdown.

Such an event would have catastrophic consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and West Africa; increasing storms and lowering temperatures in Europe; and pushing up the sea level in the eastern North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.

The complexity of the AMOC system and uncertainty over levels of future global heating make it impossible to forecast the date of any collapse for now. It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away. But the colossal impact it would have means it must never be allowed to happen, the scientists said.

“The signs of destabilisation being visible already is something that I wouldn’t have expected and that I find scary,” said Niklas Boers, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who did the research. “It’s something you just can’t [allow to] happen.”

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/climate-crisis-scientists-spot-warning-signs-of-gulf-stream-collapse

The abstract of the study;

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Niklas Boers 
Published: 

Nature Climate Change volume 11, pages 680–688 (2021)Cite this article

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.

Read more (paywalled): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4

Sadly Boers’ study is paywalled, which I find a little surprising.

I mean if you wanted to warn people about an imminent comet strike, would you charge money for people to read your warning, or would you forget self interest and try to spread the news as far and fast as possible, in the hope of producing a response?

So why would anyone charge money for people to see their warning about what they claim is an imminent global climate catastrophe?

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Ric
August 6, 2021 2:06 pm

Run to the hills!

Great song by Iron Maiden.

Bryan A
Reply to  Ric
August 6, 2021 2:19 pm

AMOC amoc amoc amoc The A M O C is running amoc

Charlie
August 6, 2021 2:08 pm

It’s just part the tiresome climate porn frenzy that inevitably happens in the run up to COP meetings.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Charlie
August 6, 2021 3:13 pm

See comment below. And disproven every time raised. PIK has a memory problem. Stuck on panic.

Richard Page
Reply to  Charlie
August 7, 2021 8:48 am

PIK does love that film. Do they get a kickback every time they mention it? Or are they just superfans? I mean, I like the star wars films but I don’t refer to them online ad nauseam (OK – that was one Yoda reference, that was all!).

August 6, 2021 2:08 pm

The PIK has an obsession. Since years, at least since the day Rahmstorf was in cinema viewing “The Day After Tomorrow” he and his complices are proclaiming the end of the AMOC.

THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW – some comments on the movie

Interestingly, Greenlands ice lost, often blamed as reason this summer was a relative small one….

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 2:15 pm

It’s always fun to slap Rahmstorf’s photo page up here.
He really does seem to be in love with himself (-:

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 2:21 pm

Any reason the picture isn’t shown ?

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 2:33 pm

You posted a link and people have to click on it. If you want it to show, download it yourself and use the icon in the bottom right corner of the comment box to attach it.

He does look as if he really admires himself. Smarmy twit (excuse the English slang)

Reply to  Smart Rock
August 6, 2021 2:45 pm

You see, the other pictures are shown, linked the same way.

icisil
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 3:40 pm

Some sites don’t allow hot linking to pictures. Hit or miss.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 2:27 pm

A sort of copy of
comment image

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 2:31 pm

Rahmstorf imitated his ancient boss:
comment image

Both with the same obsession of “globalism”.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 5:26 pm

There’s a face I wouldn’t trust … and with good reason. He has never been right in any of his dire warnings.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 9:13 pm

Who is Rahmstorf and what is his connection with this story? Does he work with Boers at Postdam?

Reply to  Alastair Brickell
August 7, 2021 1:20 am

He studied under Rahmstorf and Rahmstorf is the boss of the departement
And Rahmstorf is obsessed of AMOC slow down.

Sara
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 7, 2021 4:14 am

That photo says ‘god complex’ in a rather annoying way.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 4:19 pm

I admire a guy who takes personal responsibility for saving the whole world. Not.

H B
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 5:17 pm

In this day and age why is this link http not the secure https especially from a institution

Dave Fair
Reply to  Steve Case
August 6, 2021 4:18 pm

He is a sneaky-looking little bastard.

Reply to  Steve Case
August 6, 2021 8:40 pm

Let’s ignore Rahmstorf for now and diss this guy Niklas Boers for his junk science.

Reply to  DMacKenzie
August 7, 2021 6:03 am

And who teached the junk science ?
Right, Rahmstorf 😀

Reply to  Steve Case
August 6, 2021 9:40 pm

Does he love himself ? 😉

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 4:02 pm

Sadly I have to admit that Rahmstorf graduated from my Oceanography department a year or two ahead of me. That was UCNW Bangor as it was then in the early 1980s.

He has since been given an honourary award by my old Uni. Not sure why he got one and I didn’t. Isn’t science scepticism?

Anyway, anyone says I’m not a climate scientist I can point at Rahmstorf and say I graduated from the same Uni, the same department and did most of the same courses.

I probably covered the carbon cycle better than him too as I did joint hons. with soils. Don’t know what his joint was, his cv doesn’t say.

Peter East
Reply to  ThinkingScientist
August 6, 2021 4:18 pm

Maybe he was smoking his joint!

Paul Milenkovic
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 6:58 pm

Roland Emmerich also says that he is well aware that things could not happen in such a short space of time and that he knows the difference between weather and climate, but that they had to construct their own private theory to squeeze the theme into a 2-hour blockbuster movie format. To portray the dramatic effects of a major climatic disaster within a short time span, they simply took known weather extremes – tornados, storm surges, cyclones, hail storms and blizzards – and amplified those.”

I had no idea that Mr. Emmerich, who is one of the well-respected movie directors of our time, also made the movie “Sharknado”?

A storm that would draw up ocean water and then rain live sharks down on people. Obviously this is fiction, but the possibility of ravenous sharks raining out of the sky needs to be developed within the time limits of a movie?

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Paul Milenkovic
August 7, 2021 12:39 pm

So the director of a movie just demonstrated he knows more about the science of Climate Change™ than these supposed experts that rolled and smoked a fat one with wrote this paper?

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 7, 2021 2:07 am

Emmerich was really annoyed that Gore stole his stryofoam glaciers for his epic, a cinema preview.

Sara
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 7, 2021 4:12 am

They’re still wearing winter clothing up in Iceland. Anything to do with the gaseous emissions of Geldingadair will likely be dismissed by the Greenbeaners and those they worship.

Capitalist-Dad
August 6, 2021 2:10 pm

So if we don’t stop global warming (by surrendering our liberty and our money) we face catastrophic cooling? Got it. The scammers have no sense of irony. P.S. Scammers, kiss my bum.

Reply to  Capitalist-Dad
August 6, 2021 2:12 pm

Now you know why when it warms it gets colder 😀

chickenhawk
Reply to  Capitalist-Dad
August 6, 2021 3:59 pm

These idiots pretend that nuclear power doesn’t exist.

Joel Snider
Reply to  chickenhawk
August 6, 2021 8:27 pm

Well, they kill it off wherever possible. They’ll pretty much go after any energy source.

ex-KaliforniaKook
Reply to  chickenhawk
August 7, 2021 12:20 pm

In his world nuclear power may not exist. “neurotic is a man who builds a castle in the air. A psychotic is the man who lives in it.”

Reply to  Capitalist-Dad
August 6, 2021 7:47 pm

So that means that high levels of atmospheric CO2 can trigger an Ice Age? Which model runs do they have showing that?

Reply to  BobM
August 7, 2021 4:54 am

None at the moment, but give them a few months and it will be exactly as predicted

Joel Snider
Reply to  Capitalist-Dad
August 6, 2021 8:26 pm

Getting ahead of the narrative.
Remember, ALL weather proves AGW

It’s climate change when it’s cold,
Global Warming when its hot,
And a Pause when it stands still…

Rick W Kargaard
Reply to  Joel Snider
August 7, 2021 8:19 am

The world is their toy

Joel Snider
Reply to  Rick W Kargaard
August 7, 2021 12:07 pm

A marvelous ploy.

ResourceGuy
August 6, 2021 2:12 pm

I’ll stick with the Max Planck Institute for real German research.

Rapamycin changes the way our | EurekAlert! Science News Releases

Reply to  ResourceGuy
August 6, 2021 3:25 pm

Rapamycin changes the way our EurekAlert! Science News Releases?
Now that is a powerful medicin!

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Hans Erren
August 7, 2021 4:44 pm

dummy

dodgy geezer
August 6, 2021 2:12 pm

looks like they have noticed that the Earth is now in a cooling trend, and are anxious to keep the scare going….

Reply to  dodgy geezer
August 6, 2021 2:24 pm

First steps of an tactical retreat ? 😀

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 2:41 pm

They never retreat. They are just attacking on the eastern front. They have the doomsday weapon – CO2. It can cause runaway warming, runaway cooling and (horror or horrors!) it can even make the climate stay the same. Defence is not possible; the only permitted outcome is abject surrender (and give up your SUV).

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Smart Rock
August 6, 2021 3:57 pm

Just last year the PIK predicted 80% probability of an El Niño then the La Niña arrived. It’s hard to give their predictions much credence.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Smart Rock
August 6, 2021 7:27 pm

Notice the ‘high gas-mileage’ vehicle that Biden has apparently just exited:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1423386062999769091

It might actually get slightly better gas mileage than his personal ’60s-vintage Corvette Stingray — ~17 MPG highway; 11 city. When is he going to trade in his Corvette on a Tesla?

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 3:27 pm

Cooling is of course also predicted climate change.

icisil
Reply to  dodgy geezer
August 6, 2021 3:44 pm

Bring out the variants.

Dave Fair
Reply to  icisil
August 6, 2021 4:23 pm

From his photos, it looks like the brought out the varmints.

August 6, 2021 2:12 pm

AOC says the world will end 2031. So the collapse will have to wait a bit longer. How come no one is blaming the Russians anymore?

Rud Istvan
Reply to  John Shewchuk
August 6, 2021 3:21 pm

Mark, if you want to keep posting off topic here, suggest you first do some homework. Read all of my first ebook, Gaia’s Limits. It is rather exhaustive on your favorite topic. Then read the first of two energy sections of later ebook Blowing Smoke. Covers the same ground later in time, and in ‘sound bites’ you can even use here. Lots of images in both to help you understand.
Be glad I have mostly ignored you here on this to now. Persist off topic, I might change my mind.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 3:33 pm

Clowns is a bit dramatic. I prefer entertainers … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6J4l3g4ygc

chickenhawk
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 4:01 pm

quit being a schmuck. just try to stay on point.

MarkW
Reply to  chickenhawk
August 6, 2021 5:03 pm

Off topic, wrong, and have a really bad memory.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  chickenhawk
August 6, 2021 6:01 pm

That’s your complaint?

MarkW
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 5:01 pm

So you are too much of a coward to leave on your own. Instead you will repeatedly violate site policies, and then proclaim yourself the winner when you finally get banned.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  MarkW
August 7, 2021 8:39 am

Which site policy? Posting off topic comments? That would be most people who comment here, period.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 6:14 pm

Mark, you are on the worlds most highly acclaimed science site (see the awards). You have to have a ‘take’ in your offerings here if you want to have an impact.

Clearly, you are not a scientist of any kind, but that’s okay. Climate stuff impacts, society, the economy, ecology, education, the politics/policy options … there is something for everyone. Choose the best of what you’ve got in what you are comfortable with and you will have ‘a take’ and maybe an impact.

Cheers, enjoy.

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Gary Pearse
August 7, 2021 12:45 pm

It’s 97%. Don’t you even know your own catechism?

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 7:34 pm

You come across as someone dealing with Dunning-Kruger Effect, spoiling for a fight. Considering Rud’s demonstrated abilities and accomplishments, you have probably more than met your match. It might be wise to just put your tail between your legs and quietly slink off into the night.

Reply to  John Shewchuk
August 6, 2021 3:30 pm

The figure of 53 years is based on known reserves in the USA. There is no need for more reserves than the business time horizon; typically 20 years. When reserves get low, the business invests money to find new reserves.

China’s coal reserves and access to global coal reserves are possibly the biggest threat to fossil fuel availability. This century could see costs going up until other reliable energy sources are exploited. USA has the largest known coal reserves so that presents a great export opportunity that is not yet fully realised. With China’s man in the presidency, that opportunity should open up.

China is fostering the US coal supply chain to increase market competition in the hope of forcing prices down. However Australia has simply found new markets to replace the reduction in sales to China.

Sadly CO2 levels will likely peak around 800ppm and fall thereafter due to falling availability of fossil fuels. In the long run, depleting atmospheric CO2 is a serious risk to life on Earth.

Reply to  RickWill
August 6, 2021 3:58 pm

My impression is, you don’t understand the way WUWT works, or you won’t.
Discussions are in general based on the title story.
If actuality is important, you may write an OT comment, if you are polite, you write “sorry for OT, but….”

Clown show may be what you are presenting here.

B Clarke
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 4:48 pm

Then you should hang on and wait, you can’t force your topic,

Join in on current topics , don’t make enemies make friends.

Chill out

MarkW
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 5:06 pm

You really do believe that we have some kind of obligation to only talk about the things you want to talk about.
Off topic, wrong, bad memory and delusional

MarkW
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 5:07 pm

Off topic, wrong, bad memory, delusional and amazingly whiny.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 5:13 pm

You haven’t submitted an article. You’ve sent a tip about an article. I’ve offered multiple times in emails that you are welcome to submit an article. You’re simply a whiny troll who thinks you can control a conversation you joined years too late.

We have an entire category devoted to peak oil.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/tag/peak-oil/

Joel Snider
Reply to  Charles Rotter
August 7, 2021 12:11 pm

Funny how he misrepresents himself, isn’t it?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 6:04 pm

Peak oil has been discussed here numerous times. You are late to the party.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 6, 2021 6:53 pm

I’m smart. I know things. Look at the things I know. I need to show how smart and right I am. Look at the things.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 6, 2021 8:49 pm

Once again, the troll demonstrates that the core support for his delusion lies in a complete inability to understand the terms he uses.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 7, 2021 4:19 pm

I have submitted an article about this topic and will see if it gets posted.

If you continue spamming about it you reduce your chances IMO. But that appears to be what you want.

MarkW
Reply to  RickWill
August 6, 2021 5:05 pm

It really is amazing how you skillfully manage to completely ignore the point that Rick brought up and attempt to divert into something where you haven’t been refuted yet

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
August 6, 2021 8:50 pm

The fact that you are so dismissive of coal just goes to prove what an idiot you are. Coal can be converted to both oil and gas.

Regardless, I wasn’t talking about just coal.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  RickWill
August 6, 2021 7:39 pm

I can help raise the extremely low quality bar on this site.

I haven’t seen any contributions so far. Only confirmation of you dealing with with Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 7, 2021 9:41 am

Methinks he wants to get banned so he can mount it as a trophy over the fireplace.

Reply to  Carlo, Monte
August 7, 2021 4:20 pm

Monte, after this latest round I am certain you are correct.

MarkW
Reply to  John Shewchuk
August 6, 2021 5:02 pm

Not only off topic, but utterly wrong.
At least you are consistent.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
August 6, 2021 6:57 pm

Who is not allowing you to reply?
I’m seeing dozens of posts by you.
Is it my fault that you are incapable of actually presenting a rational argument,
Just proclaiming the same thing over and over again makes you sound a lot like griff.
Finally, as others have pointed out, we have talked about peak oil. Many times. What you want is to turn this into a peak oil all the time site.
If that’s what you want, go start your own site. Don’t attempt to hijack a site that others have built and has been used by many people for years.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  MarkW
August 6, 2021 7:49 pm

And, contrary to his claim, Charles says that “ingraham” has NOT submitted an article for publication. Doesn’t exactly present a picture of someone who can be trusted.

I’m reminded of the old saying about how one only has one chance to make a good first impression. Ingraham has blown it!

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 6, 2021 8:16 pm

267 words. Here’s the first. I didn’t realize calling his comment an article was serious.

Wind Turbines and Betz’s Law

Betz’s law shows that as air flows through a certain area, and as wind speed slows from losing energy to extraction from a turbine, the airflow must distribute to a wider area. As a result, geometry limits any turbine efficiency to a maximum of 59.3%. As a converse, 40% of the energy goes to waste or damaging the blade (in the ideal case; in reality more). Thus, wind turbines work by damaging themselves.

Gasoline engines simply deform; wear out. Rigid wind turbines fail catastrophically and must be made to repel any strain placed on them. Therefore a rigid wind turbine is more or less physically impossible because it works by damaging itself, and you must play a losing game to pay more in structural strength than you are producing in energy.

If this doesn’t convince you wind turbines don’t work, you can study their steel consumption. It requires around 400 tons of water to make a ton of steel. If it costs 10mwh per ton to heat something- imagine your home oven cooking a turkey, as a lower bound- then that is 4 gwh per ton of steel. A turbine might contain a hundred tons of steel and produce a few dozen gwh. Just on the basis of steel energy use the EROI of wind turbines is poor.

None of this is conclusive; perhaps wind turbines somehow sustain damage easier than they make it, although you’d expect it to be easier to destroy than to create. It simply shows how Betz’s law demonstrates the Sisyphean nature of wind energy. 

References

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betz%27s_law

https://www.wesa.fm/economy-business/2016-09-30/how-the-steel-industry-uses-billions-of-gallons-of-pennsylvania-water

Reply to  Charles Rotter
August 6, 2021 8:17 pm

Here’s the other even shorter, sent after my comment about him not sending posts.

There is not enough oil to matter

World oil reserves are 2 trillion barrels. Of these, 20% each are in Venezuela or Canada, which are heavy oil. These are essentially useless; Canadian production doubled since 2000 and living standards were flat. 

The Middle East countries, especially Saudi and UAE are investing in co2 EOR, also known as carbon capture. This is often considered a stupid idea but that is for another article. Iran is basically embargoed and doesn’t care about liberals. This knocks out another 40% of global reserves. 

Only 500 billion barrels or 14 years of production are even economically relevant or relevant to Co2. Given carbon targets are usually expressed in terms of decades there simply isn’t enough oil to matter either in sustaining human existence or for carbon targets. 

References 

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/oil.html

https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Slide-deck_Building-Momentum-for-….pdf

MarkW
Reply to  Charles Rotter
August 6, 2021 8:59 pm

I love how he declares that heavy oil is useless.
EOR is considered a stupid idea? By who, him?
Sheesh, I’ve been convinced that this guy has no connection with the real world, and with every post he proves it.

MarkW
Reply to  Charles Rotter
August 6, 2021 8:57 pm

Naked assertions and really bad science.
I have no idea why this wasn’t rushed to the printers.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  MarkW
August 8, 2021 3:39 pm

One-hundred thirty words!. How is he supposed to justify assertions when his writing is so terse? Between the two ‘articles,’ he has the makings of an abstract. The illustrations were probably the best part.

MarkW
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 6, 2021 8:56 pm

Wah, wah, wah.
YOu were told about submitting articles just a few hours ago.
1) Unless you had the articles already queued up, it would be impossible to write two articles in that time frame.
2) Supplying a link is not submitting an article. What is it about trolls, not only do they think they have a right to dominate every conversation, they complain when other people don’t do their work for them fast enough.
4) Your evidence that your “article” was rejected is that they haven’t been posted minutes after they were submitted.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  MarkW
August 7, 2021 9:45 am

Would Monsieur perhaps like some cheese with his whine?

Reply to  MarkW
August 7, 2021 4:22 pm

MarkW – I would say Mark I. just got his wish. His “articles” were just published above 🙂

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
August 6, 2021 8:52 pm

It really is amazing how dumb you are.
1) The articles have been way more than one a year.
2) Comments on all articles are closed when they reach a certain age.

Reply to  John Shewchuk
August 7, 2021 11:59 am

That was popular during Trump’s time, and link him to Putin, etc.
But, with Biden in, the MEDIA focus has shifted, on purpose.
No matter what, Biden will never be at fault, because he is THEIR harmless STOOGE

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  John Shewchuk
August 7, 2021 12:47 pm

Why have y’all wasted so many replies on this troll? If he had a point to make, he would have provided references. Or at least clues where to go to verify his absurd claims.

B Clarke
August 6, 2021 2:13 pm

Of course of course, GSM people have been predicting cooling for years started last year, la nina is kicking in oceans cooling phase kicking in 30 year oscillation, global warmests know this so they have to act know to blame co2 , thats why we have seen the ramped up scaremongering recently with the new buzz phrase ( it’s already started).

So we take drastic actions to avoid warming when they admit cooling ( the reasons are lies) its a recipe for suffering world wide.

Burgher King
August 6, 2021 2:20 pm

Quick! Inject the Gulf Stream with an AMOC-tailored vaccine which can prevent it from becoming infected with the SARS-CO2 virus!

Ted
Reply to  Burgher King
August 6, 2021 5:29 pm

Simple, use off shore solar and wind to power propellers that keep the Gulf Stream flowing. It saves the planet while helping to provide more test beds and data for increasing future efficiency! Hang on a second while I create a shell corporation with that promises to use profits to support electing officials that care about science and apply for some grants.

Robert of Texas
August 6, 2021 2:22 pm

“So why would anyone charge money for people to see their warning about what they claim is an imminent global climate catastrophe?”

A) Because it isn’t true
B) Greed
C) Because alarmists are dum enough to pay for it
D) All of the above

Correct answer: D – All of the above

I just can’t wait for the giant glacier that is going to wipe out New York and a lot of the liberal East Coast. Then the giant earthquake that is going to make California slide off into the ocean.

None of this is true of course, but the liberals are dum enough to believe it.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Robert of Texas
August 6, 2021 3:25 pm

The big earthquake is more likely to be from the now overdue Cascadia Fault, and it will probably wipe out Portland and Seattle, not Cali. Cali will likely continue as a best in class GND crash test dummy.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 5:43 pm

The last big earthquake on the Cascadia Fault offshore (west of) Vancouver Island was a disaster The high water mark was reportedly ~200 vertical feet above tidewater. Wiped out most of the native tribes on the west coast of Vancouver Island.

It caused damage as far away as coastal Japan.

Years ago I tried to warn the Canadian government that we needed a much better tsunami warning system – don’t think I was heard.

This could have a significant impact on house prices in Surrey and Delta.
 

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
August 6, 2021 10:51 pm

Yeah the last one in year 1700, it was devastating!

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Sunsettommy
August 7, 2021 12:53 pm

…but didn’t they identify that it had something like a 150 year cycle, it lurches about every 150 years, so that makes it 150 years overdue already? Now I don’t even know where to go to find that article, so that I can argue with facts at my fingertips!

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
August 7, 2021 8:43 am

Wiped out most of the native tribes on the west coast of Vancouver Island.”

Racist earthquake!

Robert Hanson
Reply to  Robert of Texas
August 6, 2021 4:11 pm

“So why would anyone charge money for people to see their warning about what they claim is an imminent global climate catastrophe?”

The answer is so obvious:

As Instapundit keeps saying, I’ll believe in AGW when the people telling me about it act like they really believe it. 🙂

Robert Hanson
Reply to  Robert Hanson
August 6, 2021 4:15 pm

I suppose “act” is the wrong word. More like when the people telling me about it live their lives like they really believe it.

starzmom
Reply to  Robert of Texas
August 6, 2021 6:32 pm

I too am looking forward to the major imminent catastrophe. I don’t think it will happen.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Robert of Texas
August 6, 2021 7:52 pm

I think we would all be better off if New York were to be walled off rather than have the residents see an advancing glacier front and scatter like rats leaving a sinking ship.

August 6, 2021 2:25 pm

It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away.

Hmmm, Within the decade? Niklas Boers doesn’t look very old.

The most important lesson in Climate Science: Never make an unfounded assertion on a timeline that expires before you do. [Attribution: Bob Kutz 2018]

Ty Hallsted
Reply to  Steve Case
August 7, 2021 2:23 am

Operative word in his prediction is “could” – allowing a wrong prediction to bear no consequences for the claimant.

markl
August 6, 2021 2:38 pm

So it’s on to a new boogeyman. Of course everyone will let the past predictions of catastrophic warming slide and pretend like they were just a bad dream …. won’t they? This would take us back to the pre AGW predictions of an ice planet. How many times do they get to flip flop before the people see the man behind the curtain?

Peter W
Reply to  markl
August 6, 2021 5:12 pm

The man named Milankovitch?

August 6, 2021 2:42 pm

Facebook, etc., should ban these entities and people for excessive, fake, fear-mongering not based on any science evidence.

The Gulf Stream comes from the always-warm Mexican Gulf.
It is produced by the earth’s rotation towards the East.
That cause the Gulf Stream to be pressed against the US East Coast.
A part of that Gulf Stream veers off towards Europe. It warms the European West Coast, all the way to Murmansk, Russia

Reply to  willem post
August 6, 2021 2:51 pm
Tom Johnson
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 6, 2021 5:27 pm

The earth not only turns, but it’s moving at over 1000 mph at the equator. It’s dragging a whole lot of water and air along with it there, too, and it’s all quite warm. Meanwhile, at the poles, all are moving at only about one revolution per day, and are quite cold. As long as that stays, and that warmer water rises (at least that above 39F), and colder water sinks, there will be ocean circulation. I don’t believe a few fractions of a degree either way will change that in the least.

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Tom Johnson
August 7, 2021 12:58 pm

So what happens if we keep sticking windmills up into that wind, and each one takes a little bit more energy out of that wind? Does the wind eventually stop? Is the increase in force causing the Earth to slow down its rotation, or speed up? Aren’t the recommendations from Gang Green then making the situation, or at least the coming disaster, worse? So many questions! So little funding to research them all!!!

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 7, 2021 8:46 am

“Gulf Stream safe if wind blows and Earth turns”

I would add: And the continents retain their current configuration. The Isthmus of Panama is an important factor.

Mark Kaiser
Reply to  willem post
August 6, 2021 3:16 pm

Good point willem.

So the real study should be to determine how much new CO2 is needed to slow the earth’s rotation.

Reply to  Mark Kaiser
August 6, 2021 8:12 pm

Or how much is needed to blow completely through and wash away Panama and/or Costa Rica and open a new Atlantic/Pacific stream. I foresee a new study on all the climate refugees, followed by the freezing of Europe. Wow, what a movie…

Drake
Reply to  BobM
August 7, 2021 3:09 pm

So what you are saying is a couple hundred well placed nuclear deices opening a large enough path through the isthmus of Panama could get the geentards of Europe off our (the US) backs by giving them enough trouble to handle without acting all superior?

As long as we don’t help bail them out, I am all for it.

What do you think griff?

Tom in Florida
August 6, 2021 2:42 pm

Now you’ve done it. I don’t think Griff can stand another thing to be paranoid about. This one could break the camel’s back. Poor Griff, worry….worry…..worry….worry

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 6, 2021 4:33 pm

The Griff persona is a Trolling Device reflecting memes fed by its controllers and, therefore, cannot worry.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 6, 2021 5:41 pm

Either that or he’s just a wind sock that only detects one wind direction and hangs there , all limp, in any other wind condition.

DonK31
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 6, 2021 5:55 pm

If Griff and Nancy Pelosi did not exist, then someone would have to invent them.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 7, 2021 8:47 am

I think it’s a login used by multiple people. Sometimes it engages, its tone changes, etc.

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
August 7, 2021 1:02 pm

You may be right. About a month ago, I nearly fainted from surprise, “Griff” said something remotely correct.

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 7, 2021 1:01 pm

I was starting my Summer vacation, got the car loaded in 97° F outdoors, in full sun. I finally got the car rolling, the air conditioner had just begun to reduce my rate of sweating, when I saw a sign: “CAUTION: BRIDGE ICES BEFORE ROAD”. GREAT!!!! I thought. Now I have something else to worry about on this trip!

Chaswarnertoo
August 6, 2021 2:48 pm

FFS.

Ed Zuiderwijk
August 6, 2021 2:51 pm

Someone tell mother nature’s thermodynamics agency that from now on heat will not anymore flow from warm to cold.

Davide
August 6, 2021 3:02 pm

Global Warming leads to Global Cooling, unless the temperature just stays the same, then it’s just on a break.

Isn’t their predicted cooling a good thing?

It will prevent the planet from melting and restore the polar ice cap and save all the Polar Bears, how is that bad?

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Davide
August 7, 2021 8:49 am

There’s always warming or cooling. Glaciers are always receding or advancing, sea levels are always rising or falling. There is no stasis.

Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 3:02 pm

Well, I had to do a bit of refresher research before commenting on this new but really old PIK climate alarm.

PIK has been spouting this same ‘official’ AMOC weakening nonsense since at least 2015. Their problem is that a moored buoy array called RAPID was deployed across the entire North Atlantic at 26N latitude in 2004 precisely to measure this AMOC climate possibility. And it has as yet detected NO weakening.

So, to paraphrase Feynman, ‘It doesn’t matter how beautiful your (PIK) theory is. If contradicted by observation, it is just WRONG!’

Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 3:09 pm

As often as published, as often it was disproven 😀

aussiecol
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 3:47 pm

Like putting lipstick on a pig, Hey Rud.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  aussiecol
August 6, 2021 5:01 pm

Well, we used to raise pigs on my dairy farm second barn special enclosure (needed concrete and steel). We NEVER used lipstick. And they all ended as butchered pork and maybe your bacon.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 5:45 pm

It’s only the really ugly pigs that can use a touch of lipstick and some rouge, like PIK’s science.

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 7, 2021 1:04 pm

Now you’re being insensitive to the feelings of really ugly pigs. I need my safe space, or I may not survive this hate!

Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 6:26 pm

Rud did you ever use ‘companion feeding’. My pigs loved fresh cow pizzas.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Gary Pearse
August 6, 2021 7:59 pm

It seems that pigs and dogs will eat anything — including road apples.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 7, 2021 8:52 am

My dog eats: rocks, deck boards, weeds, rope, blankets, headphones, cat poop, glasses…

I’ve concluded that he’s a goat.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
August 7, 2021 2:30 pm

Dogs are very wise to possible hardship. Never pass up an opportunity to pee and never pass up a free meal.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 7, 2021 6:10 pm

I forgot to mention deer poop. That’s his favorite treat. If we let him out in the yard, he will not come back in until he’s consumed every speck of the stuff.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
August 7, 2021 6:19 pm

Charming! 🙂

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
August 8, 2021 3:44 pm

My veterinarian has called the cat poop in the litter box “tootsie rolls for dogs.’ Dog are not discriminating eaters! Keep that in mind the next time one tries to lick your mouth.

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 7, 2021 1:05 pm

There’s a surprising amount of undigested grain in those road apples. Ask any sparrow or starling.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Red94ViperRT10
August 8, 2021 3:46 pm

I did ask a sparrow. It ignored me and just flew off. It might have been a liberal sparrow.

J Mac
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 4:08 pm

Interesting. Was not aware of RAPID moored buoy array. Thanks!

Sunny
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 4:12 pm

The mass news media picked up on it and ran the whole “the world is ending”

Dave Fair
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 4:35 pm

About the same time ARGO was fully deployed. It, too, shows no significant change.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 6, 2021 5:12 pm

The difference is, ARGO had three specific purposes, see my previous post on ARGO intent. None involved AMOC.
The RAPID buoy system was precisely for measuring AMOC. That they agree is a nice coincidence.

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 7, 2021 1:07 pm

The fact that you can get two different experiments to measure the same phenomenon and agree on the data is more than just a happy coincidence, it’s pretty good experiment planning. Twice!

Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 5:56 pm

Can anyone confirm that this PIK study says:
CO2-driven global warming will cause the AMOC to weaken and Europe to suffer extreme cold? That is, warming causes cooling?

If that is the PIK hypo I say it is false.
Earth was probably warmer in the 1930’s and nothing happened to the AMOC.
Earth is now cooling so the hypo is already expired/disproved.

Just more alarmist nonsense.

David A
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 6, 2021 11:09 pm

That and SL being two meters higher within warmer then present periods in the current interglacial, and the Gulf Stream carried on just fine.

Ferdberple
August 6, 2021 3:02 pm

as little as two decades.
======
Always post retirement when the pension is secure

August 6, 2021 3:16 pm

Could fossil fuel warming be just combustion heat, not radiative whatnot?

https://ptolemy2.wordpress.com/2021/08/06/could-fossil-fuel-warming-be-just-combustion-heat-not-radiative-whatnot/

August 6, 2021 3:16 pm

“around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and West Africa;”

The Pied Pipers of PIK surely aren’t going to be able to put this one over! The piper’s tune we know is mesmerizingly intoxicating, but fortunately it diminishes logarithmically with repetition.

The poker tells have proven prescient. The climate worriers have, indeed, been deeply concerned about being six yrs into a possible 30yrs cold period. And the fair number of (sceptical) climate scientists who have predicted this from timing of natural climate variation and quietening down of solar activity – “Die Kalte Sonne”, Willie Soon, David Archibald …

Gavin Schmidt and his former boss at GISS, the Father of End-of-World- Rising-Boiling-Seas Climate – Jim Hansen have thrown in the towel, agreeing climate models run away too hot and we could be heading into a 30yr cooling. Are they going to give PIK Pipers in to lead the parade?

Mark D
August 6, 2021 3:29 pm

“It’s something you just can’t [allow to] happen.”

Oh puny human what CAN you do about it?

I’m guessing every day is a bad day for Niklas Boers

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Mark D
August 7, 2021 1:13 pm

The weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do, and there’s nothing you can do about it. Just as King Canute demonstrated that the tide was gonna do what the tide was gonna do, and not even he The King could stop it. Furthermore, IF Humanity’s Sins of Emission had anything to do with our climate, we have already emitted ~300 years of Industrial Revolution (I’m counting from the invention of the steam engine in, what, 1753(?) so more like 270 years, but who’s counting) to get us to this point, the genie is truly out of the bottle and there ain’t no putting her back!

August 6, 2021 3:47 pm

The northern hemisphere has increasing sunlight with that trend to continue for 12,000 years. The latitudes with greatest increase in sunlight is the northern tropics. That increases evaporation from northern tropics, which increases the flow in the deep water return channel between 500m and 2000m. The consequence is increased flow in the surface return layers that take tropical heat north.
comment image

The increase in August and September sunshine over the tropical North Atlantic will cause more atmospheric water just before cooler boreal winters than now – guess what that causes?

Dave Fair
Reply to  RickWill
August 6, 2021 4:41 pm

Wouldn’t that lead to a strengthening of the Gulf Stream and a small reduction in the amount of heated water remaining in the equatorial region?

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  RickWill
August 7, 2021 1:17 pm

Except no one has been able to find that “…deep water return channel…”, not between 500m and 2000m, not deeper, not shallower, not anywhere. It’s my contention that the Gulf Stream continues to release heat, thereby dropping its temperature, until it is no longer a “warm current” carrying heat from the equator to the Arctic, but rather a cold current coming from the Arctic and removing heat from the atmosphere as it goes, and all at about the same depth as the Gulf Stream. But otherwise, I agree with you, the Gulf Stream isn’t going away.

Wayne Townsend
August 6, 2021 3:59 pm

Hedging their bets in case of a cooling trend. Call this a climatological Put.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Wayne Townsend
August 7, 2021 11:30 am

That was my immediate take on this as well.

August 6, 2021 4:02 pm

Immediate drastic reduction of CO2 would solve this problem, but the time for debate has ended. Donate first, but we must act now! NOW!

Red94ViperRT10
Reply to  Mario Lento
August 7, 2021 1:18 pm

You forgot to use the hysteria font.

Reply to  Red94ViperRT10
August 7, 2021 3:51 pm

agreed. Append as follows: “…but we must act now, NOW! –or you will all die

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