Tasmanian devil, ferocious bad tempered carnivorous rat like Marsupial, native to Tasmania. Author John Cummings link

Claim: Tasmania, New Zealand, Iceland, UK & Ireland the Best Places to Survive the Climate Crisis

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to researchers, climate worriers should consider moving to asylums, small isolated cold climate countries, which they see as lifeboats or arks which maximise their chance of surviving the coming climate apocalypse.

Tasmania among best places to survive global societal collapse, new study finds

By Fiona Blackwood

Tasmania has been ranked one of the top five places in the world to survive a global collapse in society, according to a British study.

Key points:

  • A UK study rated Tasmania one of the best places to survive a collapse in society
  • Scientists say Tasmania’s climate, agricultural resources and electricity supply make it an ideal refuge should “things go pear-shaped”
  • However, they say the state could not cope with an influx of people

Tasmania has been listed alongside New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom and Ireland as potential havens of the future.

The study, published in the journal Sustainability, found Tasmania could become recognised “as Australia’s ‘local refuge (lifeboat)’ as conditions on the continental mainland may become less amenable to supporting large human populations in the future”.

While many people have already moved to Tasmania to escape the heat in other states, some doomsday preppers are weighing up the island state as a post-apocalyptic option.

Professor Byrne said there is no data on how many people move to Tasmania each year fearing the impact of future climate change scenarios.

“There’s no doubt in my mind that we’re seeing the edge of this effect right now.

“That’s why I’m here.”

Professor Byrne moved to Tasmania with his family from the Gold Coast in 2018.

“I’ve worked in the field of climate change adaptation for quite a while now and have become increasingly concerned about what the global models are telling us … about the intensity and scale of the change that’s happening,” he said. 

“When the opportunity came to move down here to Tasmania, it was a no-brainer.”

Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/tasmania-among-best-places-to-survive-global-collapse/100333892

The following is the study which triggered this excitement, respect to whoever decoded the abstract.

An Analysis of the Potential for the Formation of ‘Nodes of Persisting Complexity’ 

by Nick King and Aled Jones *

Human civilisation has undergone a continuous trajectory of rising sociopolitical complexity since its inception; a trend which has undergone a dramatic recent acceleration. This phenomenon has resulted in increasingly severe perturbation of the Earth System, manifesting recently as global-scale effects such as climate change. These effects create an increased risk of a global ‘de-complexification’ (collapse) event in which complexity could undergo widespread reversal. ‘Nodes of persisting complexity’ are geographical locations which may experience lesser effects from ‘de-complexification’ due to having ‘favourable starting conditions’ that may allow the retention of a degree of complexity. A shortlist of nations (New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia and Ireland) were identified and qualitatively analysed in detail to ascertain their potential to form ‘nodes of persisting complexity’ (New Zealand is identified as having the greatest potential). The analysis outputs are applied to identify insights for enhancing resilience to ‘de-complexification’.

Read more: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/15/8161/htm

I think all the climate worriers moving to their chosen asylums is potentially a win / win scenario. They get to live out their fantasies without suffering the angst of having to endure more than a few days per year of warm weather. The rest of us get to live our lives without having to endure their endless eco-proselytisation and demands that normal people conform to their beliefs.

The losers will be the current inhabitants of cold climate countries, who will have to put up with an influx of climate zealots demanding they turn down their home heating thermostats.

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July 30, 2021 10:07 am

Mutton every night in the dark.

Reply to  Rob_Dawg
July 30, 2021 11:25 am

There won’t be any, all these countries are islands, they will be flooded, all the way up to the mountain tops. /sc

Pillage Idiot
Reply to  Vuk
July 30, 2021 12:08 pm

“[those islands] will become so overly populated, that [they] will tip over and capsize.”

— Hank Johnson (D – GA)

Reply to  Pillage Idiot
July 30, 2021 12:48 pm

Now, we need some new grad degree for Island Capsize Engineer.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Pauleta
July 30, 2021 1:00 pm

BA, Capsizing Island Studies

Reply to  Rich Davis
July 30, 2021 7:30 pm

Stoppit would you. Idiots have feelings too.

Reply to  Vuk
July 30, 2021 4:51 pm

That was my first thought–these are all islands, the first to be submerged in the rising seas. Kind of like 0bama buying a seaside estate on Martha’s Vineyard. Watch what they do not what they say.

Reply to  starzmom
July 30, 2021 7:54 pm

If New Zealand is going to be submerged, there won’t be much dry land anywhere, except the major mountain ranges.

Reply to  ATheoK
July 31, 2021 5:28 am

That is probably true, if they even make through the apocalypse.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Vuk
July 30, 2021 7:39 pm

New Zealand keeps rising due to earth quakes. The one a few years ago raised much of the south island’s west coast by several meters.

Alastair Brickell
Reply to  Patrick MJD
July 31, 2021 11:50 pm

Actually Patrick it was the east coast near Kaikoura, so a dramatic fall in sea level there!

However, more importantly please tell these potential refugees we don’t want any more climate idiots here, thanks very much. We already have far too many of them infesting Queen Jacinda’s government.

Chris Norman
Reply to  Vuk
July 31, 2021 4:24 pm

Where I live the sea level is falling.

John Tillman
Reply to  Rob_Dawg
July 30, 2021 12:32 pm

Tasmanian devils aren’t rodents but carnivorous marsupials. Rodents are placentals. The dog-sized devils are also bigger than rodents, capybaras excepted.

Dunno whether they’re good to eat or not, but are sadly susceptible to cancer, perhaps from inbreeding due to range restriction.

John Tillman
Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 31, 2021 4:26 pm

I still wouldn’t call them rat-like. They are carnivorous, ie predators and scavengers of mammals and birds.


Reply to  John Tillman
July 30, 2021 4:52 pm

Whatever–they look like nasty little things.

John in Oz
Reply to  John Tillman
July 30, 2021 8:04 pm

They are prepared the same way as for a galah (Aussie parrot if you haven’t heard of them).

Place in pot of water with a rock and heat over an intense flame.

When the rock is soft, throw out the galah and eat the rock

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  John in Oz
July 30, 2021 10:10 pm

G’Day John,

“When the rock is soft, …”

The way I heard it, about 65 years ago, “When you can stick a fork in the rock, …”

Just a slightly more graphic description. (Dad-blamed old-timers.)

Patrick healy
Reply to  Tombstone Gabby
July 31, 2021 6:45 am

Come on man get with it!
Just this week some tosser (a world renowned chef who I had never heard of) stated that teaching the children – or university students — how to use a fork and knife was “wasist”
They should use their fingers.

Reply to  John Tillman
July 31, 2021 4:10 am

theyre carrion eaters
you really would NOT wanna eat one
the possums are tasty im told by a local
pity its illegal to do so now

John Tillman
Reply to  ozspeaksup
July 31, 2021 4:21 pm

Depends on how hungry I am, mate. With enough capsicum, it’s all good!

Reply to  ozspeaksup
August 12, 2021 11:14 pm

I have had possum in a stew but would not want to eat it any other way as it is very rich.

Chris Norman
Reply to  Rob_Dawg
July 31, 2021 4:23 pm

It’s cows these days. NZ feeds china while polluting land, streams and rivers with uncountable amounts of cow poo and wee.

Len Werner
July 30, 2021 10:09 am

Would this be an appropriate and advantageous time to get a don’t-let-them-back law passed?

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Len Werner
July 30, 2021 12:47 pm

Absolutely. Then we can enjoy the more temperate climes without these nutters.

climate worriers should consider moving to asylums

Asylums? Best place for ’em ever!

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
July 30, 2021 1:55 pm

You know they won’t move. Most of them don’t really believe this crap anyway. What “climate crisis” are we talking about anyway?

Derek Wood
July 30, 2021 10:11 am

Thanks for the tip, when is it due?

Reply to  Derek Wood
July 30, 2021 1:18 pm

On a day that ends in the letter y.

Reply to  gringojay
July 30, 2021 10:28 pm

That’s wickedly funny!

John Tillman
July 30, 2021 10:15 am

What’s wrong with Alaska?

Clearly the authors have never seen the giant cabbages grown during long summer days in the Matanuska Valley.


Plus, moose and caribou meat.

Reply to  John Tillman
July 30, 2021 1:36 pm

Florida is the most “moved to state” in the country….they are escaping the heat

Robert of Texas
Reply to  John Tillman
July 30, 2021 2:30 pm

Alaska will be the land of Mordor once Climate Change is done with it! 140 degree in the shade, oceans covering all but the highest peaks, and no child will ever know what snow is…

(yes, sarcasm)

Dave Fair
Reply to  John Tillman
July 30, 2021 5:12 pm

And the growth of a more smoke-able plant: Matanuska Thunder F**k.

Bruce Cobb
July 30, 2021 10:21 am

Professor Byrne is a “no-brainer”. That is, he literally has no brain.

Brent Qually
July 30, 2021 10:23 am

Easy for Dr. Byrne to make his no-brainer move, because he doesn’t have one.

Reply to  Brent Qually
July 30, 2021 1:00 pm

…. probably didn’t have a job either. No brain, no job – what else do you have left but climate crackpottery.

Dave Fair
Reply to  philincalifornia
July 30, 2021 5:13 pm

No, it sounds like he “works” for the government or his wife’s family has some money.

Reply to  Dave Fair
July 30, 2021 7:33 pm

Yeah, that’s kinda what I said – climate crackpottery.

Joao Martins
July 30, 2021 10:27 am

Eric, will you please elaborate a bit further on the meaning of “asylum”?

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Joao Martins
July 30, 2021 10:43 am

Loony bin. You have to be crazy to want to live there.

Krishna Gans
July 30, 2021 10:41 am

Tasmania etc will be happy to wellcome houndreds of thousand refugees and agricultural resources and electricity supply will be even then enough 😀

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Krishna Gans
July 30, 2021 3:38 pm

The U.S. has hundred of thousands of economic refugees on our border. Would you like to have some of them come to your place? Maybe we can work something out.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 30, 2021 5:15 pm

Drooling Joe and Kameltoe say they are climate refugees.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Krishna Gans
July 30, 2021 4:16 pm

Their population growth is about 1% per year right now so I don’t think there are too many climate refugees. Although, from the official website, it looks as if white folks aren’t desired.

Dav Freer
Reply to  Krishna Gans
July 31, 2021 3:28 am

We’re full! Try Macquarie Island. And the last thing we want is these jackasses.

Rud Istvan
July 30, 2021 10:43 am

Who knew before this new ‘paper’ that decomplexification was the same as global societal collapse, caused by climate change caused by anthropogenic global warming? Or that qualitative assessment would identify Tasmania as an asylum refuge?
Greta Thunberg will be surely soon be sustainably setting sail for Tasmania, to provide it another complexified Tasmanian Devil equivalent.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Rud Istvan
July 30, 2021 11:55 am

Her reaction no doubt:

Pillage Idiot
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 12:14 pm

Greta claims that the lack of action on climate change has “stolen her childhood”.

Yet the additional warming and additional CO2 fertilization could only have been a BENEFIT to Sweden.

I wish people would “steal” from me by adding lots of money to my bank account!

(Maybe I have not yet been contacted by the right Nigerian prince?)

Reply to  Pillage Idiot
July 30, 2021 1:17 pm

Climate change did not steal her childhood, on the other hand skiving school for a false cause is robbing her of a proper education, something she has the means to achieve. I didn’t have any chance of college or university for reasons I won’t divulge. When I missed my chance the universities were still educating kids now it seems they are more into brain washing them, God forbid they might learn to think for themselves. Perhaps she should keep skiving after all.

Robert of Texas
Reply to  Notanacademic
July 30, 2021 2:32 pm

The most important thing I learned from College (other than you do not want to have a hangover) is to never trust anything you are taught…research and decide for yourself.

Reply to  Robert of Texas
July 30, 2021 3:23 pm

It seems we took different paths to the same conclusion, although I have had many hangovers and after a wonderful evening with my wife of 34 years I think I might have another in the morning.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Pillage Idiot
July 30, 2021 1:21 pm

Some day your prince will come, PI

Pillage Idiot
Reply to  Rich Davis
July 30, 2021 2:43 pm

I got the princess!

However, she is a little high maintenance.

Consequently, I am still waiting on my $9,000,000 from a global warming research grant, or a Nigerian prince, or the sale of 18 of my finger paintings for the bargain price of $500,000 each!

Reply to  Pillage Idiot
July 30, 2021 7:48 pm

If you want to get a proper princess, you have to first be a frog. You need to google:

climate change turns humans into frogs guardian


climate change turns humans into frogs bbc

They’ll probably have some Top Tips on how to get her to kiss you too, but you can’t have any kids, or a car.

Dav Freer
Reply to  Rud Istvan
July 31, 2021 3:29 am

What did Tasmania do to deserve that, Rud?

July 30, 2021 10:45 am

There was a Heinlein story containing the secondary tale of the historian who absolutely predicted the second world war. He was so certain that he resigned, emigrated, became a planter at the place he was sure he and his family could ride out whatever conflict came along. He settled with his family on the island of Iwo Jima.

Every one of those Islands in the study is at the end of a long supply and logistics chain that each society totally depends upon. None is self-sufficient, and can support only a small human population, if any, without alot of shipping. In a disaster, they’ll be the first to go.

Wasn’t it just last week someone brought up the entire Easter Island lesson again? Byrne wasn’t listening.

The preppers and survivalists scoped all this stuff out in the 80’s. Not a lot has changed.

Reply to  dk_
July 30, 2021 10:57 am

Your Heinlein story reminds me of the true story of Wilmer McClain:

Wilmer McLean (May 3, 1814 – June 5, 1882) was an American wholesale grocer from Virginia. His house near Manassas, Virginia, was involved in the First Battle of Bull Run in 1861. After the battle, he moved to Appomattox, Virginia to escape the war, thinking that it would be safe. Instead, in 1865, General Robert E. Lee surrendered to Ulysses S. Grant in McLean’s house in Appomattox. His houses were, therefore, involved in one of the first and one of the last encounters of the American Civil War. He lived in his house with his wife, Virginia.


Reply to  RicDre
July 30, 2021 1:59 pm

And as soon as Lee and Grant’s meeting ended Federal officers started taking the furniture they used as souvenirs.

Reply to  RicDre
July 30, 2021 8:16 pm

You forgot to mention that early in the Civil War neither side had an effective graves and registration organization.

After a battle, one army tended to retreat and the other army tended to advance, leaving the dead where they fell…

Quite a few of the photographs for Antietam and Gettysburg, the photographers moved the dead to where they gave a picture more impact.

The Union officers present at the signing started offering McLean substantial sums for the furniture used during the occasion.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  dk_
July 30, 2021 11:11 am

They won’t be the first to “go.” They’ll be the first to fall back in a Feudal-Dark Ages living conditions for the masses.
For instance, the manufacturing base in New Zealand is almost non-existant. Agriculture exports, movie-film industry, and tourism are the big 3 money makers there in terms of generating foreign currency reserves to buy manufactured goods from China, North America, and Europe. NZ would still have agriculture (sheep, cattle) for their population to subsist, but living conditions would rapidly deteriorate for most except those with super wealth needed to have their own yacht and/or private airstrip to to escape-bring in small amounts of goods on their private jets and buy-off the politicians to allow it.

Len Werner
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 11:39 am

Please stop making this type of comment. Griff had started packing…

Reply to  Len Werner
July 30, 2021 1:03 pm

…. aaaah, that explains why he’s been slacking off on keeping us updated with daily polar sea ice updates.

Reply to  philincalifornia
July 31, 2021 1:42 am

5th lowest for date, since you ask…

Reply to  griff
July 31, 2021 1:51 pm

Ha ha yes – what 3 days since you were crowing about it being the 3rd lowest. Above 2007 !!! There’s some Arctic beating down IR for you.

Dare you click on the Antarctica button? Will it go a whole whadam over 1979 again.

Reply to  Len Werner
July 30, 2021 4:56 pm

Noooo please no.

Reply to  Len Werner
July 31, 2021 1:42 am

I’m staying right here.

I live in the finest country on the planet.

(which is why I’m so keen on seeing it not baked or flooded)

Len Werner
Reply to  griff
August 1, 2021 11:33 am

I’m glad to hear that and happy that you enjoy it. It has baked and flooded before though, as a geologist I can prove that to you; it will bake and flood again with or without you or me in it. The only thing you and I might disagree with is the effect that you and I have; you hold the view that man’s influence is approaching that of the Gods, and I believe that man is much closer to the ants.

You are convinced it is warming because of man; I am not. I think the only thing that will decide is if it obviously cools again, and a study of even the most recent geologic past suggests strongly that it will. I live on a hillside overlooking the Fraser River 100m below me, a magnificent view. I did my post-graduate thesis work in the Juneau Icefields where the exposed rocks were between 1,000m thick ice. Just 12,000 years ago right where my house is there was that same 1,000m of ice. 12,000 years is an instant in geologic time.

Could it go back again to 3,000′ of ice? Yep, and in that same instant. There are forces much bigger than you or I that apply.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 1:25 pm

Well just continue to import from the sweat labour in the hot climes.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 1:58 pm

“Feudal-Dark Ages living conditions for the masses.” is a little too optimistic. Think neolithic. When I said they’d be the first to go, I meant that they’d quickly go to able to support of less than a tenth of their current populations — or a fraction of their pre-colonial populations. Medieval sustainment capabilities are actually of much higher order than I’d imagine would be the case in any of those places, and most of the native, pre-colonial resources those stone-aged people exploited are all but completely gone, even in Great Britain and Ireland.

Reply to  dk_
July 30, 2021 5:01 pm

Aren’t we all headed toward Feudal-Dark Ages living conditions? I could handle the UK if they could handle me. And I can be pretty self sufficient if needed.

Joe Shaw
Reply to  dk_
July 30, 2021 8:24 pm

They are not thinking this through. If things get as bad as the doomsters claim the newcomers to those islands are apt to wind up as no more than “meat on the hoof.”

Dav Freer
Reply to  Joe Shaw
July 31, 2021 3:39 am

Meat is the one thing we DON’T need on our island. We have about 100 cows and 200 sheep, and a 1000 wallaby per person. Mind you, if it’s eat the likes of the doomsters or live with them… that’d be a hard one. Can we use them for bait? 🙂

Michael in Dublin
July 30, 2021 10:46 am

While I wonder if we will survive the folly of our politicians in Ireland, I would certainly be even more depressed if I were living in the UK and fear that NZ is ignoring that they are simply going through a lull in the storm.

Ed Zuiderwijk
July 30, 2021 10:48 am

I’m afraid that the ‘no brainer’ was Prof Byrne himself.

Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 10:52 am

How they rank ordered them:
New Zealand: 5.6 sheep for every person (still a far cry from the peak of 22 per person in 1982)
Iceland: 2.5 sheep person.
Scotland: 1.25 sheep per person.
Ireland: 1.02 sheep per person.

I suspect Messiers Jones and King may have other motivations.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 10:56 am

Tasmania: 4.07 sheep per person.

Dav Freer
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 31, 2021 3:41 am

I live on an island off the coast of Tas. We’re WAY up on that. Most of Tassie’s people live in two cities. Take those out and it’s hundreds of sheep per person.

Pillage Idiot
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 12:19 pm

Great work Joel!

You have now provided the solution to CAGW.

By using “cargo cult” science, we can solve global warming. All we have to do is increase the sheep population across the entire developed world.

(At least according to Blackwood’s trenchant analysis.)

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Pillage Idiot
July 30, 2021 8:28 pm

The Liberal media with their COVID 24/7 scaremongering now about Delta strain are doing a pretty good job of making more sheeple.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 1:26 pm

Catch up you lot, it’s cows, possums and rabbits these days.

Reply to  HAS
July 31, 2021 12:40 am

And kangaroos and camels

Reply to  RexAlan
July 31, 2021 12:50 am

Yes we have camels in Australia, lots and lots of camels. They were imported during the 19th century from Afghanistan for transport in the semi desert areas but released into the wild when no longer needed. Australia has the largest population of feral camels and the only herd of dromedary (one-humped) camels in the world.

Max More
July 30, 2021 10:53 am

According to researchers, climate worriers should consider moving to asylums”. I agree with this!

Ron Long
July 30, 2021 10:57 am

Never mind Tasmania and those other places, if you want to escape the burning hell on earth just go ahead and move to Iceland. Oops! Volcanoes are causing trouble on Iceland. Me, I’m a Death Valley survivor, thanks to cold “survival liquids”, so I’m sure predicted future warming won’t affect me.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Ron Long
July 30, 2021 3:46 pm

I think Iceland was on the list. Along with somewhere in Colorado and Alaska.

Preppers would probably be better off in the U.S. If the U.S. government fails its citizens, there are always the American individual States to fall back on. The Red States. The Blue States are part of the problem.

Reply to  Ron Long
July 31, 2021 4:29 am

icelands nice summer day is 15c with cold winds
cant see much food grown there unless in protected greenhouses?
sure not seeing trees of worth either in the volcano footage etc
grazing looks damned sparse too

Bill Toland
July 30, 2021 10:59 am

It’s very odd that I have yet to see any climate refugees in Scotland. Perhaps climate worriers would be even more depressed by the Scottish weather.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Bill Toland
July 30, 2021 11:20 am

It’s no mystery why Scotsmen left their home country to run sugar plantations and export businesses all over the world, almost all in warm-tropical locations, in the 19th Century.

John Tillman
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 12:21 pm

Scottish novelist Robert L. Stevenson died in Samoa.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Bill Toland
July 30, 2021 12:52 pm

It’s very odd that I have yet to see any climate refugees in Scotland

Just wait until November…

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
July 31, 2021 1:01 am

The weather in Glasgow in November.


Average temperature 5.5C.

Reply to  RexAlan
July 31, 2021 5:36 am

Some years ago, I attended my daughter’s graduation in Glasgow in December. My husband, who could not attend, informed me that it would be so mild I did not need winter clothes or gloves. Fortunately one of the shops on Sauchihall Street had the needed items.

July 30, 2021 10:59 am

Now CC will cause “global societal collapse”. Who knew? As Gilda Radner said…. It’s always something”.

July 30, 2021 11:08 am

I’ll make do with Minnesota. While we don’t have Tasmanian Devils, we can make do with wolves, bears, and wildcats.

Curious George
July 30, 2021 11:15 am

Why not Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Antarctica?

Reply to  Curious George
July 30, 2021 12:18 pm

All 5 have volcanoes?

Maybe NZ should be ranked #1 in countries most susceptible to geology related disasters.

Reply to  Curious George
July 30, 2021 12:24 pm

The incidence of rebound shaking in Greenland might keep you awake at night.

Gregory Woods
Reply to  Curious George
July 30, 2021 2:38 pm

Why not Mars? Ideal for Alarmists…

July 30, 2021 11:19 am

“I’ve worked in the field of climate change adaptation for quite a while now and have become increasingly concerned about what the global models are telling us … about the intensity and scale of the change that’s happening,” he said.

Pity that the professor was unaware of this before uprooting his family:


Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
July 30, 2021 12:53 pm

I love how ‘models’ are telling him stuff that’s happening, that isn’t actually happening.

July 30, 2021 11:19 am

I take it the threat of all the polar ice melting has been put on the back burner, so to speak

July 30, 2021 11:34 am

If they would promise to stay and to give up their citizenship so they can no longer vote here, I’d be willing to help with air fare and logistics.

My condolences to Tasmania, etc.

Dav Freer
Reply to  MarkW
July 31, 2021 3:45 am

NO. Please no. Please please no. What has Tassie done to deserve this? New Zealand will suit them much better.

Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 11:41 am

Besides these two IYI’s referencing the fictional “Anthropocene” in their manuscript, they also consider societal collapse becoming more likely as the world becomes more connected, interdependent, and natural resource-intensive. They see a fragile structure.

Clearly these two authors see the modern world from the eyes of a modern Socialism-Communism movement. They see a top-down organized, bureaucratic world system, not unlike that of the USSR and its 5-year plans of a directed economy. This is indeed a fragile system, as the collapse of USSR proved. BlackSwan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes about in his book Anti-Fragile.

What we have had in the West for over 200 years of the Industrial Revolution has been Capitalism, with profit motive, and a bottom-up (grassroots style) organization of economic activities. That bottom-up organization of Western Capitalism is key, and it is Anti-Fragile, as Taleb describes. Ehrlich, Holdren and many others have failed in the predictions of collapse because they do not understand resilience, creative-destruction, and anti-fragility concepts.
Anti-Fragile structures become more resilient the more they are stressed. Economic recessions, occasional depressions and the allowance for entire industries to collapse and rise again in new structures is what makes Western Capitalism anti-Fragile. These stressors strengthen the system.

“Creative destruction refers to the incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones. It was coined by Joseph Schumpeter (1942), who considered it ‘the essential fact about capitalism’.

But it is Capitalism that is now under direct attack by the Left and their COMITERN allies across the Western world and from the UN itself.

As long as Western-style, free market Capitalism exists, and is allowed to exist in its mostly free form of creative-destruction and thus innovation and unleashing human capital, then the Marxist envisioned total collapse will never happen.

Yes, there will be recessions, and even depressions, but these are essential to establishing anti-fragility. The shale fracking revolution is just the latest “capitalism” example of this unleashing human capital to bring new energy resources to the system, further confounding the Marxist doomsayers.

Gregory Woods
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 30, 2021 2:40 pm

‘Robust’ is a word that comes to mind…

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Gregory Woods
July 30, 2021 8:23 pm

Robust and resilient are synonyms that means structures are able to withstand serious shocks and perturbations. Taleb makes it clear that “anti-fragile” goes a step beyond and means that shocks and impulses , while being somewhat destructive, lead to longer term strenthegning. The immune system of mamals is once sych example. It is only through repeated varied exposures in youth that we acquire “anti-fragile” immune systems that get stronger with challenges assuming we survive.

July 30, 2021 11:45 am

“global societal collapse”
Where in the IPCC reports was this utter SF scenario ever mentioned?

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Hans Erren
July 30, 2021 12:56 pm

No, it wasn’t. In fact, they stated that any problems brought on by warming would me entirely mitigated by changes in technology and society.

It only exists in the fevered imaginations of Climate Worriers.

July 30, 2021 11:47 am

This is a Hollywood toe in the water for a new movie series.
See: Lost, 199 episodes.


Could be quite entertaining – lock-down popcorn anyone?

July 30, 2021 11:55 am

Here in the mountains of Colorado the prospect of warming and rising seas doesn’t seem bad at all.

Robert of Texas
Reply to  tommyboy
July 30, 2021 2:36 pm

Yeah??? Just wait for more of the California Liberals to move into your state and see how you like it…

Before I move into any new state the first thing I will check is their gun laws.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Robert of Texas
July 30, 2021 5:26 pm

Colorado is already lost.

July 30, 2021 11:57 am

Wouldn’t Siberia be better ?

July 30, 2021 12:02 pm
John Hultquist
July 30, 2021 12:02 pm

 ” concerned about what the global models are telling us ”
[ Professor of Human Geography and Planning at the University of Tasmania Jason Byrne ]

Bless his little heart!
Don’t anyone tell Jason the models lie.

John K. Sutherland.
July 30, 2021 12:06 pm

This is really funny. The big migration, every Fall where I live in eastern Canada, is to the much warmer climate of Florida, for the winter… and not a sheep in sight as far as I know.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  John K. Sutherland.
July 30, 2021 12:51 pm

We here in South Florida call it the snowbirds migration.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
July 30, 2021 2:08 pm

I call Florida Gods Waiting room.

Gregory Woods
Reply to  John K. Sutherland.
July 30, 2021 2:42 pm

maybe other kinds of sheep…

Andy Pattullo
July 30, 2021 12:14 pm

Yes please move to the colder remoter regions to survive climate change. Don’t forget snowshoes, lots of blankets and some indestructible ID so that when they pull you from under the mile thick ice as it recedes at at the next interglacial they can at least know who was foolish enough to fall for this scam.

July 30, 2021 12:49 pm

Liar several times over: CO2 causes climate change, that there’s significant human caused climate change, that any small warming that has happened is generally bad, and that any reduction in biodiversity has anything directly to do with CO2. The last one is a big whopper if animal lovers think that giving up real fuels is going to magically restore the rain forests or the fish stocks. Case in point extensive farms of wind turbines and solar panels, and the required power lines set up in rural and forested areas, and one of the most tragic is orangutans chased out of their forest, which was mowed down for biodiesel pal oil plantations.

Peta of Newark
July 30, 2021 12:58 pm

Do you laugh or do you cry ##
How can anyone be so shallow yet at the same time is so close to working out what is going on?

here goes:
Folks have been ‘seeking asylum’ in the UK for millennia.

They DID NOT come for the nice weather.
In fact, as far as the UK goes, they studiously avoided some parts, notably:

  • Wales – mountainous and relentlessly crap weather. Nowhere to build houses or farms
  • Scotland – Similarly mountainous and wet/rainy but especially very windy. Wind drives you nuts – as it happens, there actually is a Human Element to Climate.
  • Ireland – far too close to the North Atlantic with Generally Crap Weather all the time. Reasonably good but the Atlantic storms are guaranteed to trash the best laid plans, buildings, farms, crops and people.

The 2 real reasons they came to England is that:

  1. it has Goldilocks weather – especially that it doesn’t do ‘extremes’
  2. much to do with part (1) above, England has Good Quality Soil/Dirt

Thus put (1) and (2) together and you get Goldilocks Land ** = reasonably predictable and stable weather with lots to eat

(**) surely Shirley = some anagram of England?

Hello hello enquiring and agile mind, have you cracked it, d’ya see the connection with the other places on the list?
In fact England rather becomes the odd one out, but the others are have been or are recently subject to lots of volcanism – Volcanism = new, fresh, fertile and good-growing dirt.
In fact = Goldilocks Dirt

England had some good volcanoes and naturally good quality dirt but in the way of good dirt, becomes eroded by ‘Natural Processes’.
Where England got 2 bites of the cherry and The English got as many cherries as they could eat, England regularly gets swept clean of tired, old and eroded dirt by regular Ice Ages.
Similar to how The Laurentide Sheet swept Canadia clean, ordinary ice-sheets cleaned and ploughed England – much of the English farmland soil is officially classified as ‘Glacial Till
And good-growing stuff it is. I had 259 acres f it in Cumbria. Not too far North of where the Romans came to grow wine as it happens. I could grow wine to this very day if I wanted – my grapevine here could be the star in any remake of ‘Day of the Triffids’

And Good Dirt makes for Good Climate *#
It also makes healthy happy and well adjusted people.

Until muppets like this come along advising Government hence every one else and get it all so very wrong – contemporary England being the perfect case-in-point

Thus how England somehow manages to only grow 50% of the food that’s eaten/needed and how we had (2nd only to Italy I think), THE worst per capita Covid fatality rate in the whole world.

*# The dirt does it by creating an overabundance of plant growth.
Thus: lots of dead plant material falls to the ground and becomes part of the dirt/soil. Being made of Cellulose and Lignin, that material has an epic affinity for water and it is that ‘trapped water‘ in the dirt/soil that controls the weather/climate.
Not trapped heat’ in the sky – trapped water been known about for 1,000’s of years which is why England has always been such a honeypot.
Or porridge-pot if you answer to “Goldilocks”

Which is what the muppet in this story is actually telling us, but doesn’t realise it.
so near yet so far……..

## At this mo in time, I tink ‘crying’ is the preferred option

Reply to  Peta of Newark
July 30, 2021 3:53 pm

Drunk again, peta?

Reply to  Peta of Newark
July 31, 2021 1:38 am

You don’t seem to have noticed the increase in flooding in England, summer and winter, in the last 2 decades…

Gary Pearse
July 30, 2021 1:14 pm

Thank you for not selecting Canada, eventhough it is far and away the best choice for what ails their fevered phantasies. A poker tell here. These worriers are all from little cheek-to-jowl toy countries. Vistas, solitude, self reflection … unsettle them.

Keith Rowe
July 30, 2021 1:59 pm

Weird choices. These places don’t make anything. How would these places continue civilization. They also don’t make enough food for themselves. Bizarre choices. Britain is the most obvious one, but damn can’t we just move a little further north or higher up in the next few thousand years?

Reply to  Keith Rowe
July 31, 2021 1:37 am

I suggest you check the percentage of world cities and world population which are right down there at sea level…

Reply to  griff
July 31, 2021 2:49 am

And are still there!

Dav Freer
Reply to  Keith Rowe
July 31, 2021 3:52 am

Tas is substantially a food exporter.

July 30, 2021 2:03 pm

Picked up a load of frozen White Castle slider patties from the docks in Philadelphia a few years ago. They came from New Zealand.

Robert of Texas
July 30, 2021 2:27 pm

Yes, everyone worried about climate change should immediately all move to Ireland. I am sure the Irish would be delighted.

Meanwhile here in my hot old dried-up Texas, I pray for climate change every day – rain is good.

Reply to  Robert of Texas
July 31, 2021 1:35 am

But climate science predicts the rain isn’t coming… and your aquifers are drying up… move now while someone will still buy your property. Same applies to anyone in Florida.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  griff
July 31, 2021 3:01 am

Gee Griff, do you remember back in them there oldy days when their used to be rain and people pretended it wasn’t important and great many Germans drowned.

Gee how long ago was that? Oh yea. Last month.

Well done, Griff. Get you Lord to pat you on the head next time you are summoned to his manor house.

Reply to  griff
August 1, 2021 11:58 am

Just a little above you’re going on about flooding, now you say rain’s not coming. Which is it?

July 30, 2021 2:43 pm

Once again I call for all climate emergency worriers to move to Antarctica.

The reasons are numerous.

NO oil companies, NO fracking, NO automobiles, NO coal power, NO nuclear power, NO forest fires, NO coral bleaching, NO polar bear starvation and a cooling climate which they all desperately want to live in.

Best of all, THERE IS NO RACISM anywhere.

For the life of me, I just can’t believe that there isn’t a rush to go and live there because it’s the PERFECT place to eliminate the emergencies that plague all their lives presently.

Dav Freer
Reply to  Doonman
July 31, 2021 3:53 am

It’s too white 😉

July 30, 2021 2:45 pm

Foolish man. Everyone knows if you want to survive you get a beachside property in Martha’s Vineyard like Obama and John Kerry.

michael hart
July 30, 2021 4:31 pm

“Tasmania among best places to survive global societal collapse, new study finds
By Fiona Blackwood

I think Fiona Blackwood is good evidence that some sort of societal collapse may already be underway. But not in the manner she fondly imagines.

Meanwhile, the citizens of the UK are still waiting hopefully for the “Mediterranean Climate” that the Met Office promised us a decade or so ago.

July 30, 2021 4:48 pm

”Professor Byrne said “I’ve worked in the field of climate change adaptation for quite a while now and have become increasingly concerned about what the global models are telling us…”

 Its possible anything ”could” happen ”if” you shape it the way you want.

”Professor Byrne said there is no data on how many people move to Tasmania each year fearing the impact of future climate change scenarios.”

We don’t want a state full of alarmists thankyou. Its bad enough putting up with Bob Brown and his disciple’s trying to shut Tasmanian industries down..

Craig from Oz
Reply to  aussiecol
July 31, 2021 3:03 am

‘… there is no data on how many…’

Maybe in the same way there is no data the amount of unicorns killed in traffic accidents?

Dave Fair
July 30, 2021 5:08 pm

I’m not sure the Tasmanian Devils would be very welcoming.

July 30, 2021 5:51 pm

Ummm….. the Icelanders are happy to welcome Outsiders as guests, but they REALLY do NOT want any of us moving to their island. Can’t say as I blame them, either. I truly don’t want any of The Them moving in to my neighborhood. They can’t even shovel snow off their own front steps.

Reply to  Sara
July 31, 2021 1:34 am

Really? Icelanders don’t shovel the snow??

(and why is that an issue?)

Mark Kaiser
July 30, 2021 5:53 pm

Professor Byrne said there is no data on how many people move to Tasmania each year fearing the impact of future climate change scenarios.


July 30, 2021 6:53 pm

Don’t forget Canada! Nobody remembers that area on the map that is between Alaska and Washington. We don’t care about “global warming”: we’ll just find another frozen lake to play hockey on a few hundred kilometers North.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  SpeedWeasel
July 30, 2021 10:10 pm

Global warming is the best that that has ever happened to canada

I want some more please

July 30, 2021 7:19 pm

Seems New Zealand just keeps mounting on the point and truely is the lucky country. No covid, awesome scenery, great people, strong leader for a prime minister(actually the last couple have been pretty damned fine), and now we get to be the best place on the planet for navigating climate change. Not to mention that we are near the top (if not the top) for olympic medals per capita.

Curious George
Reply to  Simon
July 31, 2021 8:35 am

An Olympic medal is a proof that you can do something totally useless better than anybody else.

Reply to  Curious George
July 31, 2021 11:32 am

Curious George…. what a sad little(or big) man you must be.

Reply to  Simon
August 1, 2021 11:59 am

What’s that about hypocrisy, Simon?

Reply to  TonyG
August 1, 2021 4:23 pm

Well? Explain? I’m not the grinch complaining about the Olympics being pointless.

Reply to  Simon
August 2, 2021 7:14 am

Knuckles, Simon. Stop being a hypocrite. (as if that will ever happen)

Reply to  TonyG
August 2, 2021 11:25 am

OK so you got nothing but ad-homs. Rather telling… and boring.

Reply to  Simon
August 2, 2021 1:17 pm

There’s that hyprocisy again, Simon. That is not “ad-hom”, it’s a demonstrable fact.

I have NEVER called you anything but Simon, but you have engaged in name-calling with me. You complain about name-calling all the time but have no problem doing it yourself, as demonstrated above.

That is by definition hypocrisy. That makes you a hypocrite. No ad-hominem in pointing out a provable fact.

Reply to  TonyG
August 2, 2021 4:29 pm

OK this is weird. You called me “Knuckles Simon” which by definition is a pure form of ad hom attack as you are attacking me personally (rather than what I am saying) and I my ad hom on you was?
I’ll look forward to this.

Reply to  Simon
August 3, 2021 6:46 am

Punctuation is important. I said “Knuckles, Simon”, as a reminder of your personal attack on me.

Reply to  TonyG
August 3, 2021 11:45 am

Well come on, what was my personal attack on you? I’m good but I’m not psychic.

Reply to  Simon
August 3, 2021 2:06 pm

Knuckles, as I keep reminding you.

But you’re too dense and hypocritical to realize it. I’m done.

Reply to  TonyG
August 3, 2021 4:14 pm

So you call me dense and then with no reference to anything say I called you knuckles? You sure are done…. I’d say over cooked.

July 30, 2021 7:50 pm

Professor Byrne moved to Tasmania with his family from the Gold Coast in 2018.

“I’ve worked in the field of climate change adaptation for quite a while now and have become increasingly concerned about what the global models are telling us … about the intensity and scale of the change that’s happening,” he said.”

Much like the california loons and NYC yankees moving to areas with friendly social people and low taxes, then promptly louse it up.

“When the opportunity came to move down here to Tasmania, it was a no-brainer.”

Just what survival skills do you bring to Tasmania, professor Byrne?

  • Can you till land and raise crops?
  • Can you harvest foods and put up preserves?
  • Can you raise animals, slaughter them and tan them for use as food and their hides for clothing and footwear?
  • Can you generate electricity?
  • Can you produce fuels for heat, cooking and transportation?

Professor Byrne moved to Tasmania with his family from the Gold Coast in 2018.

“I’ve worked in the field of climate change adaptation for quite a while now”

Obviously another urban consumer that thinks everyone else exists to take orders and to keep Byrne supplied. Or does Byrne plan to be another Alexander Pearce and live off his neighbors?

Jean Parisot
July 30, 2021 8:48 pm

Given that a D-O event is just as likely as their absurd warming preditions, how did those locals fare in the last few?

Dav Freer
Reply to  Jean Parisot
July 31, 2021 3:57 am

Badly, it would seem.

John Hultquist
July 30, 2021 10:02 pm

The sort of areas of which they write have been called “refugia” and have been studied for many years.
For example the Southern Appalachians in eastern North America have been noted as a place that both animals and plants, from areas to the north, survived the last glacial advance.
Here is an article using the term — ignore the reference to modern AGW :
How Refugia Will Protect Some Animals and Plants from Climate Change – Geography Realm

July 31, 2021 1:53 am

Hey, hands off. We don’t want an influx of climate nutters. Besides which, the British Bigotry Corporation will be so disappointed if there isn’t a climate disaster.

Craig from Oz
July 31, 2021 3:13 am

So, without bothering to point out the obvious*, the average temp at any given time in Qld is higher the one in Tasmania.

I can’t be bothered looking up the exact number, but I am very confident the delta between Qlds and Tas is greater by several degree than the number the Climate Industry(tm) has pulled out of Greta’s lint filled yellow parka pockets.

This strongly implies that if you were to travel from Tasmania to Queensland the localised climate change would of course cause you to instantly die. Cause Climate Change. Which is Real(tm). The models prove it.

Reading between the lines I think young Prof Byrne was thinking more along the importance of job offers rather than the immediate health and safety of the nearest and dearest.

I mean if you REALLY believed you were about to die the moment the sun came out from behind a cloud you wouldn’t need “the opportunity”. You would just throw the kids in the back of the carbon neutral EV, leave the front door open and the fridge still filled on your soon to be below sea level house and start driving. After all, it might be worse than you think AND already be too late.

*edit – Hmmm… was it obvious I hadn’t bothered?? Not sure I thought that sentence out fully in retrospect. If only I had modeled it first… 😛

July 31, 2021 4:09 am

been going on for some time in tassie and the older locals are NOT happy
land shortages huge price rises and more idiots on their roads
as well as the above stated bitching re wood fires for heating water use power use etc etc
states NOT able to run itself without handouts from commonwealth funds as it was
used to be about 50k pop now soaring past that.
wineries and all sorts moved there cos warming
not happening;-) lol

Captain climate
July 31, 2021 4:33 am

These people are lunatics. They legitimately think their countries will be uninhabitable for a species which lives everywhere from scorching desert to polar ice. And they think it will actually happen in their lifetimes.

Bloke down the pub
July 31, 2021 5:04 am

I would advise anyone looking for an island sanctuary to choose one that is beyond the reach of an inflatable dinghy, otherwise they’ll find their idyll interupted by thousands of others looking to join them.

Chris Norman
July 31, 2021 4:20 pm

It’s very cold in NZ. I know, I just opened my window.

Reply to  Chris Norman
August 12, 2021 11:29 pm

Ten years ago on Sunday we had the heaviest snow in Masterton I have ever known. It hung around for three days. The way it has been going recently we could be in for a repeat.

kelvin Duncan
July 31, 2021 7:22 pm

What warming are they running from?

August 2, 2021 1:11 am

This lifeboat is full yet still they come. And when we can’t import food we will find that Malthus was correct.

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