Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to researchers, climate worriers should consider moving to asylums, small isolated cold climate countries, which they see as lifeboats or arks which maximise their chance of surviving the coming climate apocalypse.
Tasmania among best places to survive global societal collapse, new study finds
Tasmania has been ranked one of the top five places in the world to survive a global collapse in society, according to a British study.
Key points:
- A UK study rated Tasmania one of the best places to survive a collapse in society
- Scientists say Tasmania’s climate, agricultural resources and electricity supply make it an ideal refuge should “things go pear-shaped”
- However, they say the state could not cope with an influx of people
Tasmania has been listed alongside New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom and Ireland as potential havens of the future.
The study, published in the journal Sustainability, found Tasmania could become recognised “as Australia’s ‘local refuge (lifeboat)’ as conditions on the continental mainland may become less amenable to supporting large human populations in the future”.
While many people have already moved to Tasmania to escape the heat in other states, some doomsday preppers are weighing up the island state as a post-apocalyptic option.
…
Professor Byrne said there is no data on how many people move to Tasmania each year fearing the impact of future climate change scenarios.
“There’s no doubt in my mind that we’re seeing the edge of this effect right now.
“That’s why I’m here.”
Professor Byrne moved to Tasmania with his family from the Gold Coast in 2018.
“I’ve worked in the field of climate change adaptation for quite a while now and have become increasingly concerned about what the global models are telling us … about the intensity and scale of the change that’s happening,” he said.
“When the opportunity came to move down here to Tasmania, it was a no-brainer.”
…
The following is the study which triggered this excitement, respect to whoever decoded the abstract.
An Analysis of the Potential for the Formation of ‘Nodes of Persisting Complexity’
by Nick King and Aled Jones *
Human civilisation has undergone a continuous trajectory of rising sociopolitical complexity since its inception; a trend which has undergone a dramatic recent acceleration. This phenomenon has resulted in increasingly severe perturbation of the Earth System, manifesting recently as global-scale effects such as climate change. These effects create an increased risk of a global ‘de-complexification’ (collapse) event in which complexity could undergo widespread reversal. ‘Nodes of persisting complexity’ are geographical locations which may experience lesser effects from ‘de-complexification’ due to having ‘favourable starting conditions’ that may allow the retention of a degree of complexity. A shortlist of nations (New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia and Ireland) were identified and qualitatively analysed in detail to ascertain their potential to form ‘nodes of persisting complexity’ (New Zealand is identified as having the greatest potential). The analysis outputs are applied to identify insights for enhancing resilience to ‘de-complexification’.
Read more: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/15/8161/htm
I think all the climate worriers moving to their chosen asylums is potentially a win / win scenario. They get to live out their fantasies without suffering the angst of having to endure more than a few days per year of warm weather. The rest of us get to live our lives without having to endure their endless eco-proselytisation and demands that normal people conform to their beliefs.
The losers will be the current inhabitants of cold climate countries, who will have to put up with an influx of climate zealots demanding they turn down their home heating thermostats.
Mutton every night in the dark.
There won’t be any, all these countries are islands, they will be flooded, all the way up to the mountain tops. /sc
“[those islands] will become so overly populated, that [they] will tip over and capsize.”
— Hank Johnson (D – GA)
Now, we need some new grad degree for Island Capsize Engineer.
BA, Capsizing Island Studies
Stoppit would you. Idiots have feelings too.
That was my first thought–these are all islands, the first to be submerged in the rising seas. Kind of like 0bama buying a seaside estate on Martha’s Vineyard. Watch what they do not what they say.
If New Zealand is going to be submerged, there won’t be much dry land anywhere, except the major mountain ranges.
That is probably true, if they even make through the apocalypse.
New Zealand keeps rising due to earth quakes. The one a few years ago raised much of the south island’s west coast by several meters.
Actually Patrick it was the east coast near Kaikoura, so a dramatic fall in sea level there!
However, more importantly please tell these potential refugees we don’t want any more climate idiots here, thanks very much. We already have far too many of them infesting Queen Jacinda’s government.
Where I live the sea level is falling.
Tasmanian devils aren’t rodents but carnivorous marsupials. Rodents are placentals. The dog-sized devils are also bigger than rodents, capybaras excepted.
Dunno whether they’re good to eat or not, but are sadly susceptible to cancer, perhaps from inbreeding due to range restriction.
Thanks, fixed
I still wouldn’t call them rat-like. They are carnivorous, ie predators and scavengers of mammals and birds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_devil#Feeding
Sounds like rats to me. A little less timid perhaps.
Whatever–they look like nasty little things.
They are prepared the same way as for a galah (Aussie parrot if you haven’t heard of them).
Place in pot of water with a rock and heat over an intense flame.
When the rock is soft, throw out the galah and eat the rock
G’Day John,
“When the rock is soft, …”
The way I heard it, about 65 years ago, “When you can stick a fork in the rock, …”
Just a slightly more graphic description. (Dad-blamed old-timers.)
G-dayJohn,
Come on man get with it!
Just this week some tosser (a world renowned chef who I had never heard of) stated that teaching the children – or university students — how to use a fork and knife was “wasist”
They should use their fingers.
theyre carrion eaters
you really would NOT wanna eat one
the possums are tasty im told by a local
pity its illegal to do so now
Depends on how hungry I am, mate. With enough capsicum, it’s all good!
I have had possum in a stew but would not want to eat it any other way as it is very rich.
It’s cows these days. NZ feeds china while polluting land, streams and rivers with uncountable amounts of cow poo and wee.
Would this be an appropriate and advantageous time to get a don’t-let-them-back law passed?
Absolutely. Then we can enjoy the more temperate climes without these nutters.
Asylums? Best place for ’em ever!
You know they won’t move. Most of them don’t really believe this crap anyway. What “climate crisis” are we talking about anyway?
Thanks for the tip, when is it due?
On a day that ends in the letter y.
That’s wickedly funny!
What’s wrong with Alaska?
Clearly the authors have never seen the giant cabbages grown during long summer days in the Matanuska Valley.
https://images.app.goo.gl/AsCGqybHxCKaEiBu9
Plus, moose and caribou meat.
Florida is the most “moved to state” in the country….they are escaping the heat
Alaska will be the land of Mordor once Climate Change is done with it! 140 degree in the shade, oceans covering all but the highest peaks, and no child will ever know what snow is…
(yes, sarcasm)
And the growth of a more smoke-able plant: Matanuska Thunder F**k.
Professor Byrne is a “no-brainer”. That is, he literally has no brain.
Easy for Dr. Byrne to make his no-brainer move, because he doesn’t have one.
…. probably didn’t have a job either. No brain, no job – what else do you have left but climate crackpottery.
No, it sounds like he “works” for the government or his wife’s family has some money.
Yeah, that’s kinda what I said – climate crackpottery.
Eric, will you please elaborate a bit further on the meaning of “asylum”?
Loony bin. You have to be crazy to want to live there.
Tasmania etc will be happy to wellcome houndreds of thousand refugees and agricultural resources and electricity supply will be even then enough 😀
The U.S. has hundred of thousands of economic refugees on our border. Would you like to have some of them come to your place? Maybe we can work something out.
Drooling Joe and Kameltoe say they are climate refugees.
Their population growth is about 1% per year right now so I don’t think there are too many climate refugees. Although, from the official website, it looks as if white folks aren’t desired.
We’re full! Try Macquarie Island. And the last thing we want is these jackasses.
Who knew before this new ‘paper’ that decomplexification was the same as global societal collapse, caused by climate change caused by anthropogenic global warming? Or that qualitative assessment would identify Tasmania as an asylum refuge?
Greta Thunberg will be surely soon be sustainably setting sail for Tasmania, to provide it another complexified Tasmanian Devil equivalent.
Her reaction no doubt:
Greta claims that the lack of action on climate change has “stolen her childhood”.
Yet the additional warming and additional CO2 fertilization could only have been a BENEFIT to Sweden.
I wish people would “steal” from me by adding lots of money to my bank account!
(Maybe I have not yet been contacted by the right Nigerian prince?)
Climate change did not steal her childhood, on the other hand skiving school for a false cause is robbing her of a proper education, something she has the means to achieve. I didn’t have any chance of college or university for reasons I won’t divulge. When I missed my chance the universities were still educating kids now it seems they are more into brain washing them, God forbid they might learn to think for themselves. Perhaps she should keep skiving after all.
The most important thing I learned from College (other than you do not want to have a hangover) is to never trust anything you are taught…research and decide for yourself.
It seems we took different paths to the same conclusion, although I have had many hangovers and after a wonderful evening with my wife of 34 years I think I might have another in the morning.
Some day your prince will come, PI
I got the princess!
However, she is a little high maintenance.
Consequently, I am still waiting on my $9,000,000 from a global warming research grant, or a Nigerian prince, or the sale of 18 of my finger paintings for the bargain price of $500,000 each!
If you want to get a proper princess, you have to first be a frog. You need to google:
climate change turns humans into frogs guardian
or:
climate change turns humans into frogs bbc
They’ll probably have some Top Tips on how to get her to kiss you too, but you can’t have any kids, or a car.
What did Tasmania do to deserve that, Rud?
There was a Heinlein story containing the secondary tale of the historian who absolutely predicted the second world war. He was so certain that he resigned, emigrated, became a planter at the place he was sure he and his family could ride out whatever conflict came along. He settled with his family on the island of Iwo Jima.
Every one of those Islands in the study is at the end of a long supply and logistics chain that each society totally depends upon. None is self-sufficient, and can support only a small human population, if any, without alot of shipping. In a disaster, they’ll be the first to go.
Wasn’t it just last week someone brought up the entire Easter Island lesson again? Byrne wasn’t listening.
The preppers and survivalists scoped all this stuff out in the 80’s. Not a lot has changed.
Your Heinlein story reminds me of the true story of Wilmer McClain:
Wilmer McLean (May 3, 1814 – June 5, 1882) was an American wholesale grocer from Virginia. His house near Manassas, Virginia, was involved in the First Battle of Bull Run in 1861. After the battle, he moved to Appomattox, Virginia to escape the war, thinking that it would be safe. Instead, in 1865, General Robert E. Lee surrendered to Ulysses S. Grant in McLean’s house in Appomattox. His houses were, therefore, involved in one of the first and one of the last encounters of the American Civil War. He lived in his house with his wife, Virginia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilmer_McLean
And as soon as Lee and Grant’s meeting ended Federal officers started taking the furniture they used as souvenirs.
You forgot to mention that early in the Civil War neither side had an effective graves and registration organization.
After a battle, one army tended to retreat and the other army tended to advance, leaving the dead where they fell…
Usually.
Quite a few of the photographs for Antietam and Gettysburg, the photographers moved the dead to where they gave a picture more impact.
The Union officers present at the signing started offering McLean substantial sums for the furniture used during the occasion.
They won’t be the first to “go.” They’ll be the first to fall back in a Feudal-Dark Ages living conditions for the masses.
For instance, the manufacturing base in New Zealand is almost non-existant. Agriculture exports, movie-film industry, and tourism are the big 3 money makers there in terms of generating foreign currency reserves to buy manufactured goods from China, North America, and Europe. NZ would still have agriculture (sheep, cattle) for their population to subsist, but living conditions would rapidly deteriorate for most except those with super wealth needed to have their own yacht and/or private airstrip to to escape-bring in small amounts of goods on their private jets and buy-off the politicians to allow it.
Please stop making this type of comment. Griff had started packing…
…. aaaah, that explains why he’s been slacking off on keeping us updated with daily polar sea ice updates.
5th lowest for date, since you ask…
Ha ha yes – what 3 days since you were crowing about it being the 3rd lowest. Above 2007 !!! There’s some Arctic beating down IR for you.
Dare you click on the Antarctica button? Will it go a whole whadam over 1979 again.
Noooo please no.
I’m staying right here.
I live in the finest country on the planet.
(which is why I’m so keen on seeing it not baked or flooded)
I’m glad to hear that and happy that you enjoy it. It has baked and flooded before though, as a geologist I can prove that to you; it will bake and flood again with or without you or me in it. The only thing you and I might disagree with is the effect that you and I have; you hold the view that man’s influence is approaching that of the Gods, and I believe that man is much closer to the ants.
You are convinced it is warming because of man; I am not. I think the only thing that will decide is if it obviously cools again, and a study of even the most recent geologic past suggests strongly that it will. I live on a hillside overlooking the Fraser River 100m below me, a magnificent view. I did my post-graduate thesis work in the Juneau Icefields where the exposed rocks were between 1,000m thick ice. Just 12,000 years ago right where my house is there was that same 1,000m of ice. 12,000 years is an instant in geologic time.
Could it go back again to 3,000′ of ice? Yep, and in that same instant. There are forces much bigger than you or I that apply.
Well just continue to import from the sweat labour in the hot climes.
Joel,
“Feudal-Dark Ages living conditions for the masses.” is a little too optimistic. Think neolithic. When I said they’d be the first to go, I meant that they’d quickly go to able to support of less than a tenth of their current populations — or a fraction of their pre-colonial populations. Medieval sustainment capabilities are actually of much higher order than I’d imagine would be the case in any of those places, and most of the native, pre-colonial resources those stone-aged people exploited are all but completely gone, even in Great Britain and Ireland.
Aren’t we all headed toward Feudal-Dark Ages living conditions? I could handle the UK if they could handle me. And I can be pretty self sufficient if needed.
They are not thinking this through. If things get as bad as the doomsters claim the newcomers to those islands are apt to wind up as no more than “meat on the hoof.”
Meat is the one thing we DON’T need on our island. We have about 100 cows and 200 sheep, and a 1000 wallaby per person. Mind you, if it’s eat the likes of the doomsters or live with them… that’d be a hard one. Can we use them for bait? 🙂
While I wonder if we will survive the folly of our politicians in Ireland, I would certainly be even more depressed if I were living in the UK and fear that NZ is ignoring that they are simply going through a lull in the storm.
I’m afraid that the ‘no brainer’ was Prof Byrne himself.
How they rank ordered them:
New Zealand: 5.6 sheep for every person (still a far cry from the peak of 22 per person in 1982)
Iceland: 2.5 sheep person.
Scotland: 1.25 sheep per person.
Ireland: 1.02 sheep per person.
I suspect Messiers Jones and King may have other motivations.
Tasmania: 4.07 sheep per person.
I live on an island off the coast of Tas. We’re WAY up on that. Most of Tassie’s people live in two cities. Take those out and it’s hundreds of sheep per person.
Great work Joel!
You have now provided the solution to CAGW.
By using “cargo cult” science, we can solve global warming. All we have to do is increase the sheep population across the entire developed world.
(At least according to Blackwood’s trenchant analysis.)
The Liberal media with their COVID 24/7 scaremongering now about Delta strain are doing a pretty good job of making more sheeple.
Catch up you lot, it’s cows, possums and rabbits these days.
And kangaroos and camels
Yes we have camels in Australia, lots and lots of camels. They were imported during the 19th century from Afghanistan for transport in the semi desert areas but released into the wild when no longer needed. Australia has the largest population of feral camels and the only herd of dromedary (one-humped) camels in the world.
“According to researchers, climate worriers should consider moving to asylums”. I agree with this!
Never mind Tasmania and those other places, if you want to escape the burning hell on earth just go ahead and move to Iceland. Oops! Volcanoes are causing trouble on Iceland. Me, I’m a Death Valley survivor, thanks to cold “survival liquids”, so I’m sure predicted future warming won’t affect me.
I think Iceland was on the list. Along with somewhere in Colorado and Alaska.
Preppers would probably be better off in the U.S. If the U.S. government fails its citizens, there are always the American individual States to fall back on. The Red States. The Blue States are part of the problem.
icelands nice summer day is 15c with cold winds
cant see much food grown there unless in protected greenhouses?
sure not seeing trees of worth either in the volcano footage etc
grazing looks damned sparse too
It’s very odd that I have yet to see any climate refugees in Scotland. Perhaps climate worriers would be even more depressed by the Scottish weather.
It’s no mystery why Scotsmen left their home country to run sugar plantations and export businesses all over the world, almost all in warm-tropical locations, in the 19th Century.
Scottish novelist Robert L. Stevenson died in Samoa.
Just wait until November…
The weather in Glasgow in November.
https://en.climate-data.org/europe/united-kingdom/scotland-257/r/november-11/
Average temperature 5.5C.
Some years ago, I attended my daughter’s graduation in Glasgow in December. My husband, who could not attend, informed me that it would be so mild I did not need winter clothes or gloves. Fortunately one of the shops on Sauchihall Street had the needed items.
Now CC will cause “global societal collapse”. Who knew? As Gilda Radner said…. It’s always something”.
I’ll make do with Minnesota. While we don’t have Tasmanian Devils, we can make do with wolves, bears, and wildcats.
Why not Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Antarctica?
All 5 have volcanoes?
Maybe NZ should be ranked #1 in countries most susceptible to geology related disasters.
The incidence of rebound shaking in Greenland might keep you awake at night.
Why not Mars? Ideal for Alarmists…
“I’ve worked in the field of climate change adaptation for quite a while now and have become increasingly concerned about what the global models are telling us … about the intensity and scale of the change that’s happening,” he said.
Pity that the professor was unaware of this before uprooting his family:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/07/30/climate-scientists-realize-models-yield-implausibly-hot-forecasts-of-future-warming/
I love how ‘models’ are telling him stuff that’s happening, that isn’t actually happening.
I take it the threat of all the polar ice melting has been put on the back burner, so to speak
If they would promise to stay and to give up their citizenship so they can no longer vote here, I’d be willing to help with air fare and logistics.
My condolences to Tasmania, etc.
NO. Please no. Please please no. What has Tassie done to deserve this? New Zealand will suit them much better.
Besides these two IYI’s referencing the fictional “Anthropocene” in their manuscript, they also consider societal collapse becoming more likely as the world becomes more connected, interdependent, and natural resource-intensive. They see a fragile structure.
Clearly these two authors see the modern world from the eyes of a modern Socialism-Communism movement. They see a top-down organized, bureaucratic world system, not unlike that of the USSR and its 5-year plans of a directed economy. This is indeed a fragile system, as the collapse of USSR proved. BlackSwan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes about in his book Anti-Fragile.
What we have had in the West for over 200 years of the Industrial Revolution has been Capitalism, with profit motive, and a bottom-up (grassroots style) organization of economic activities. That bottom-up organization of Western Capitalism is key, and it is Anti-Fragile, as Taleb describes. Ehrlich, Holdren and many others have failed in the predictions of collapse because they do not understand resilience, creative-destruction, and anti-fragility concepts.
Anti-Fragile structures become more resilient the more they are stressed. Economic recessions, occasional depressions and the allowance for entire industries to collapse and rise again in new structures is what makes Western Capitalism anti-Fragile. These stressors strengthen the system.
But it is Capitalism that is now under direct attack by the Left and their COMITERN allies across the Western world and from the UN itself.
As long as Western-style, free market Capitalism exists, and is allowed to exist in its mostly free form of creative-destruction and thus innovation and unleashing human capital, then the Marxist envisioned total collapse will never happen.
Yes, there will be recessions, and even depressions, but these are essential to establishing anti-fragility. The shale fracking revolution is just the latest “capitalism” example of this unleashing human capital to bring new energy resources to the system, further confounding the Marxist doomsayers.
‘Robust’ is a word that comes to mind…
Robust and resilient are synonyms that means structures are able to withstand serious shocks and perturbations. Taleb makes it clear that “anti-fragile” goes a step beyond and means that shocks and impulses , while being somewhat destructive, lead to longer term strenthegning. The immune system of mamals is once sych example. It is only through repeated varied exposures in youth that we acquire “anti-fragile” immune systems that get stronger with challenges assuming we survive.
“global societal collapse”
Where in the IPCC reports was this utter SF scenario ever mentioned?
No, it wasn’t. In fact, they stated that any problems brought on by warming would me entirely mitigated by changes in technology and society.
It only exists in the fevered imaginations of Climate Worriers.
This is a Hollywood toe in the water for a new movie series.
See: Lost, 199 episodes.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0411008/episodes/?ref_=tt_ov_epl
Could be quite entertaining – lock-down popcorn anyone?