Update on Northwest US Heat Wave Predictions

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

June 24, 2021

Incredible Temperatures Are Being Predicted and Confidence Is Now High That It Will Occur

 There are two possibilities:

  • The Northwest will soon experience one of the most incredible weather situations in many decades 
  •  There is a major flaw in virtually all of our weather prediction system

Quite frankly, I am somewhat in shock looking at the raw forecast model predictions or the statistically calibrated versions of their output.  The event being predicted is so extreme and so beyond expectation that my natural inclination is to dismiss it.  

But I can’t.  Multiple modeling systems are essentially doing the same thing.  Large ensembles of many forecasts are showing similar solutions from most of the runs.

Let me show you the latest.

An important issue will be proximity to water and to get that right, high-resolution forecasts are important, so let me start by presenting the latest UW high-resolution simulations.  The situation is so extreme that I had the colors altered to better define high temperatures.

Saturday will be the transition day.  The temperatures at 5 PM, near the time of the maxima, will exceed 100 F in much of the Columbia Basin and in the northern Willamette Valley (e.g. Portland).  90s will invade the interior of southwest Washington and southern Puget Sound.  Warm, but typical of the hottest days of a typical year.


Sunday is something else.  Temperatures in the Willamette Valley surge ABOVE 108F, as do the lower elevations of the Columbia Valley.  Incredibly, some areas south of the Olympic Mountains get above 104.  Can you imagine the temperature gradients near the coast… from the 60s to over 100F in a matter of a few miles? In central Puget Sound, temperatures will rise the 80s near the water to the upper 90s a few miles inland.


And now Monday at 2 PM.   The model resolution is a bit less but the solution is absolutely amazing.  Temperatures exceeding 108F will be found in and near the western Cascade foothills, thanks to the warming easterly flow descending the barrier.  104F and higher away from the water around Puget Sound.  The Fraser River Valley will also be crazy warm.   


If this forecast verifies virtually every major observing location in the western WA and Oregon interior will achieve their all-time temperature record.  And several of these locations have observations that go back 70-120 years.
Later Monday, marine air will start to move in along the coast, resulting in Tuesday being a bit cooler west of the Cascade crest (see temperatures at 5 PM Tuesday below).  But it will be showtime for the Columbia Basin where the model is going for temperatures OVER 112 F.   It is not inconceivable that some locations in eastern Washington will tie or exceed the all-time temperatures record for the state (118F).


The highly skillful European Center model—absolutely different in every way (different data assimilation, different model, different developers)– is going for the same story.  
For Sunday, 111F in Portland and 103 in Seattle. 


And for Monday at 2 PM an earth-shaking 108F in Seattle.   You can see the cooling (orange colors) moving in on Monday afternoon.


Let me say again:  the ensembles of many forecasts show that this solution is the preferred one, with a high probability of verifying.   The National Weather Service’s most advanced statistical postprocessing system (the National Blend of Models) that combines many forecasts in an optimal way is now going for 101F on Sunday and 104F on Monday at SeaTac Airport:


And at Portland: 101F on Friday, 105F on Saturday, 112 on Sunday, and 108F on Monday.


Finally, a number of people have asked about the role of global warming on this event.   Is global warming contributing to this heatwave?  The answer is certainly yes.   Would we have had a record heatwave without global warming.  The answer is yes as well.
Our region has warmed by up to 1-2F during the past fifty years and that will enhance the heatwave.  Increasing CO2 is probably the biggest contributor to the warming
But consider that the temperature anomalies (differences from normal) during this event will reach 30-35F.    The proximate cause of this event is a huge/persistent ridge of high pressure, part of a highly anomalous amplification of the upper-level wave pattern. 
There is no evidence that such a wave pattern is anything other than natural variability (I have done research on this issue and published in the peer-reviewed literature on this exact topic).
So without global warming,  a location that was 104F would have been 102F.  Still a severe heat wave, just slightly less intense.

Let me end with the golden rule of temperature extremes:  the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming.  Think about that.
Now PLEASE do not send me emails or leave comments accusing me of helping “deniers” or calling me all kinds of names.  I had enough of this from 350Seattle activists and Charles Mudede of the SeattleStranger. I have spent my life working on weather prediction and studying Northwest weather and am trying to communicate the best science, whether or not it fits some folks’ political agendas.

_________________________________________________

The New Edition of My Book:  The Weather of the Pacific Northwest Will be Available in August

The book includes new chapters on the meteorology of Northwest wildfires and the weather of British Columbia, and the rest of the book is greatly enhanced.  It is available for pre-order on Amazon.

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Scissor
June 24, 2021 6:08 pm

Just in case, you might want to have a sweatshirt handy.

Dennis
Reply to  Scissor
June 24, 2021 7:28 pm

I would much prefer sweat shirt weather than the cold I am now experiencing here, and I believe most people do.

Steve Z.
Reply to  Scissor
June 25, 2021 3:46 am

We had below normal temps in Seattle for about six weeks in April and May.

The west facing front range of the Cascades still has visible pockets of snow, which is VERY unusual for late June.

Regardless, this heat wave will be brutal, since Seattle is the LEAST air conditioned large city in the USA.

goldminor
Reply to  Steve Z.
June 25, 2021 1:37 pm

There was snow on many ridges of Northern California into early May. That is the latest date for snow on the ground in at least the last decade. I moved here 10 years ago.

Possibly related to this change is that the Himalayas are a bit colder than on average this season. Note the section in the northwest which is still frozen. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=94.20,30.30,1685

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Scissor
June 25, 2021 6:58 pm

Yeah, turn up the airconditioner setting.

Some people are acting like 108F is overwhelmig, or something.

How long is this heatwave going to last? Three days? Five days? Oh, the Humanity!

Rasa
June 24, 2021 6:08 pm

So. In summary. It is summer and it is going to be hot. It may or may not reach previous record temperatures.
why would anyone bother to write this weather story?

Hal McCombs
Reply to  Rasa
June 24, 2021 6:25 pm

Click bait.

Reply to  Rasa
June 24, 2021 7:48 pm

Agree…from personal experience, Ephrata on the high plateau: H0t,Hot,Hot!!! (Don’t even get me started about extreme drought conditions in the desert SouthWest!)

Luke
Reply to  Rasa
June 24, 2021 9:11 pm

And several of these locations have observations that go back 70-120 years.”

So, not very long.

B Clarke
Reply to  Rasa
June 24, 2021 10:34 pm

Seems the definition of a heatwave has changed over the last few years, I’m sure when I last looked ,a heatwave was 4 days above a average temperature for a given area, now uk its been reduced to three days and the usa two days .

Rod Evans
Reply to  B Clarke
June 25, 2021 2:07 am

Hey get with the program, the BBC now has a heat wave declared if it gets warm for a day.
Had the log burner on to keep us warm here in central UK this week, at the height of summer and the longest day of the year.
I am now in the habit of carrying my winter fleece in the car when I go out just in case. This year has been ridiculously cold here, my strawberries have not ripened and people are still worrying about meeting up in doors because some cold virus might get them.
Welcome to panic central, or England as we used to be known.

B Clarke
Reply to  Rod Evans
June 25, 2021 3:22 am

I think we all know the BBC think a heatwave is called on any day its warm, my point is a heatwave was defined as 4 days now the met Office has redefined this as three. I to live in the UK, I to use woodburners, I to will be defying the ban when it comes ,England got of lightly .

Timo, not that one
Reply to  B Clarke
June 25, 2021 9:59 am

Okay B Clarke, one case of misspelling “too” could be because of a typo. Thrice means you don’t know the difference between “to” and “too” (and probably “two” as well). Oh yes, you also can’t spell “off” and have trouble knowing when to use a comma or a period.
UK schools must be a dismal failure.

Last edited 1 month ago by Timo, not that one
B Clarke
Reply to  Timo, not that one
June 25, 2021 10:23 am

Ask me if I’m bothered, I never went to school , we ” had to work down pit from 8 ” unlike you usa types who don’t grow up till your 30 .

beng135
Reply to  B Clarke
June 25, 2021 6:05 am

Now it’s a couple hrs in the afternoon. Or even a minute while during hot weather a stadium full of people watching a sports event do “the wave”.

Last edited 1 month ago by beng135
B Clarke
Reply to  beng135
June 25, 2021 7:16 am

Talking of afternoons ,its 15.15 pm just had a blast in the car ,11.c thats just not right for the end of June.

griff
Reply to  Rasa
June 25, 2021 1:39 am

Because it is a record heat wave, people will die, this is part of a continuing pattern, it is climate change

Rod Evans
Reply to  griff
June 25, 2021 5:51 am

Griff, do you know how many people died in Texas in February following the record cold wave and the inadequate energy supply reserves state policies caused?

beng135
Reply to  Rod Evans
June 25, 2021 7:47 am

Grifter doesn’t really care about actual lives. Pointing out facts such as how winter deaths are FAR greater than summer deaths makes no difference to him/her/it — same as with his marxist comrades.

Last edited 1 month ago by beng135
Komerade Cube
Reply to  beng135
June 25, 2021 1:15 pm

Griff doesn’t care about facts, he avoids them like a cat avoids carrots. He’s paid to talk trash and divert the conversation. There are no facts in Griff’s trash.

BobM
Reply to  griff
June 25, 2021 6:05 am

Do you think more people will die this year at 104 degrees than did 60-80 years ago at 102 degrees?

My guess is that with twice or more population, far fewer will die due to heat, thanks to air conditioning and reliable energy.

Did you read the part where it said the more extreme the weather the LESS it is due to climate change?

Richard Patton
Reply to  BobM
June 25, 2021 12:52 pm

Fewer people will die in PDX because of the heat than the last time we hit 107F. A LOT more people have AC then did then. Almost no one had AC in their homes back then, because MOST of the time when it got hot night temperatures dropped into the low 60s. I remember that last time well. There just wasn’t a market for AC back then.

Forrest
Reply to  griff
June 25, 2021 9:02 am

<sigh> the odds of someone dying from this is pretty small. It gets hotter than this regularly in Vegas and other places. This is a short event that MAY take some people by surprise and they do something stupid in this heat. BUT that is why you say – don’t do stupid things.

Record heat waves are not uncommon – nor are record cold spells. This would/could happen even if all temperatures around the planed were FALLING.

Do not confuse isolated weather incidents with the average temperature rising. It is one of the items about people who tout the dangers of ‘Climate Change’ and cause me to lose confidence in them and instead label them as ignorant.

Have we detected an increase in temperature from the mean. Of course we have. Is it all attributable to CO2 – no. Is some of it – yeah based on what we can tell. Is it something to be worried about? Probably not anytime soon, and in fact will most likely make the planet better inhabitable for people.

Will there be winners and losers in it? Most likely. Could it change course at anytime – yes – will it anytime soon – maybe.

How did I arrive at this point of view. BY READING AND CRITICALLY THINKING.

Griff – you are overly on the “Its Climate Change” wagon. We change climate by building solar panels, by building windmills, by creating Urban areas, by agricultural land use, de-forestation, re-forestation, ranching, removing roaming herds of animals, watering yards, not watering yards, changing swamps into livable areas, etc and so on.

No one has managed to show me that ‘Climate Change’ where the earth gets slightly warmer is a BAD thing. They have shown that it ‘CHANGES’ things but if you think of it as progressing toward a more habitable planet doesn’t it make you feel better?

Be the ‘Progressive’ that I know you are. Change is good right? Or are you a ‘Conservative’ after all?

I know I got a little snarky at the end but I am just tired of the lack of Critical Thinking that promulgates the world today.

How many people have even QUESTIONED is a warmer planet maybe a better planet? Almost none, then you see NASA say that they should be looking for a world that is slightly warmer than ours because it would be better able to sustain life.

SERIOUSLY?!?! And people just are like – oh yeah that sounds great. But they do not think of the irony that our own world is colder than it should be to adequately sustain life.

Whatever. Griff I do not know who you are but honestly you seem fixated on the negative.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Forrest
June 25, 2021 7:12 pm

“Do not confuse isolated weather incidents with the average temperature rising.”

Especially when it is *not* rising.

The U.S. has been in a temperature downtrend since the 1930’s.

The U.S. is about 1.2C cooler now than at the hottest point in th 1930’s. So “rising temperatures” are relative. They relate to what period of time is being referenced, and if we want accurate understanding of our current situation, then we need to go back in history a little bit farther than 1979 (satellite temperature reading begins). Go back to the 1930’s and the whole picture changes. Instead of a warming trend, we see we are actually in a cooling trend. We are not currently experiencing unpredecented warming, contrary to Alarmist claims.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  griff
June 25, 2021 10:45 am

It hasn’t happened Griff. Wait for reality.

Katio1505
Reply to  griff
June 25, 2021 7:52 pm

Griff

I live in the Australian tropics, and you make me smile.

mcswelll
Reply to  Rasa
June 25, 2021 7:34 am

So people like you could read it? But then I’m not sure you actually read it.

Let’s come back on Monday and discuss it.

Jake J
Reply to  Rasa
June 25, 2021 2:29 pm

I see nothing wrong with any of this, at least insofar as weather forecasts are concerned. Leaving aside the short record, we’re going to be well over 100 degrees in this region, starting Saturday afternoon. If that’s not a weather story, nothing is.

Rich Davis
June 24, 2021 6:09 pm

My take is that Cliff Mass is part of the propaganda machine hyping the hottest evah BS.

Let’s see the evidence as of Sunday night.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 24, 2021 6:29 pm

Rich, you don’t seem to read very well considering your unwarranted attack on Cliff Mass. It is a fact that the world has warmed about 2 F since the 1950s and Cliff did not say it was caused by Mankind.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Dave Fair
June 24, 2021 8:35 pm

It is a fact that the world has warmed about 2 F since the 1950s”

It’s not a fact, because we’re not measuring “global temperature”, there’s no such thing. Averaging temperature readings from different locations is meaningless, utterly. The fact is, we don’t know.

Bryan A
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
June 24, 2021 9:16 pm

I believe the world has warmed about 0.6c since 1950 about 1f
😉
https://wattsupwiththat.com/global-temperature/

Last edited 1 month ago by Bryan A
John Tillman
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
June 28, 2021 10:20 am

Portland has possibly warmed by one degree F since 1981 and more since 1965. It’s average high might even be warmer than when it hit 107 F downtown in 1942. However it was warmer in the 1930s when my dad was a lad there than the 2010s.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Dave Fair
June 24, 2021 10:04 pm

It is a fact that the world has warmed about 2 F since the 1950

According to whom and based on what? The World” is a very big place and has relatively few measuring stations … especially in critical places like the oceans, most of the Southern Hemisphere, Canada and Russia, not to mention the rest of the Arctic. I’m betting this planet hasn’t even warmed 1 degree F since 1950. It’s all guessing and averaging interpolations of other averages.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Dave Fair
June 25, 2021 7:20 pm

Cliff actually decribed the temperature trend as the last 50 years, which would put his trend beginning in the 1970’s, not the 1950’s.

He needs to start his trend in the 1930’s, to get a clear picture of the situation as far as warming and cooling go.

I’ve seen regional charts Cliff has posted in the past which went back to the 1930’s, and Cliff plainly stated those regions were in a temperature downtrend.

So why change the starting point for this article, would be my question.

I don’t think Cliff is a propaganda machine. I think he is just stating what he thinks. Most of it I agree with, and some of it I question, such as the beginning point of a long-term temperature trend, especially when we are dealing with regional tempertures which Cliff is obviously familiar with.

Smart Rock
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 24, 2021 7:56 pm

Rich, that was unwarranted. Perhaps you haven’t seen postings from Cliff Mass before. He’s an actual meteorologist, and not any kind of alarmist. This post is because he’s seeing forecasts using the current generation of models with interesting predictions of extreme high temperatures.

Current weather models are getting quite good. They work on local weather, not global, and give good projections for several days into the future. Unlike the GCMs, which try and predict weather on a global scale, for centuries into the future. What they actually predict is what they are programmed to predict, with tweaking the parameters to make sure they get the “right” answers.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Smart Rock
June 24, 2021 8:36 pm

Cliff does think CO2 will be a problem, in 50 to 100 years. I don’t see how that’s possible, considering the diminishing logarithmic returns of more CO2 in the atmosphere.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Smart Rock
June 25, 2021 9:07 am

I’ve seen his postings here (or more accurately seen re-postings here of postings he made on his blog). I’ve never liked the guy. His attitude toward skepticism is similar to somebody being helped up after a fall in the street and saying don’t touch me with your filthy hands.

Not any kind of an alarmist? He says that the heat wave is definitely caused by human CO2 emissions, so there’s that.

Jake J
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 25, 2021 2:17 pm

You didn’t read too carefully. Is this a habit with you?

Sunsettommy
Editor
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 24, 2021 8:38 pm

I see Dr. Mass as being a scientist who speaks his own mind, he isn’t a part of some propaganda, I live in the same state he lives in I know he is a good man from reading his materials over the years.

This heatwave is REAL, where I am the current predictions starting Saturday to Thursday are the following:

107, 111, 112, 113, 111, 109 Degrees F.

Tri-Cities Forecast LINK

They have always been good with summer predictions for many years, thus I am taking it seriously.

Luke
Reply to  Sunsettommy
June 24, 2021 9:14 pm

If this is accurate, my parents are older than half of these records: “And several of these locations have observations that go back 70-120 years.”

Rich Davis
Reply to  Sunsettommy
June 25, 2021 8:59 am

What I have written, I have written.

The tone is shrill and I just don’t like the guy. I think he’s basically an alarmist who got undeserved skeptic credibility by being attacked by people even more shrill. Now he’s trying to avoid the skeptic stink getting on him.

That’s still an option for me, to have an opinion?

Rich Davis
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 25, 2021 9:16 am

To be clear, my point isn’t that there can’t be a heat wave. My point is that it is hyped as proof of CAGW and that oftentimes, we are seeing week-out predictions of extreme weather that never materialize or at least turn out to be greatly exaggerated. The objective is to create a drumbeat. People eventually internalize that it’s a fact that we’re constantly having heat waves, even when most of them are over-hyped and some of them never occur. We never see the same cast of characters predicting and hyping unusually cold weather, and that alone is enough for me to call it bias.

The original posting raised the idea that it will reach 120F/49C in Portland on Sunday. Things have dialed back from that.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 24, 2021 8:42 pm

This statement by Mass:

“Increasing CO2 is probably the biggest contributor to the warming”

is evidence supporting your conclusion, Mr. Davis.

There is no data to support that assertion. None.

Therefore, it isn’t science.

It is pure speculation.

Because Mass characterizes this speculation as “science,” he appears to be intentionally promoting the human CO2 propaganda campaign.

Last edited 1 month ago by Janice Moore
Mike
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 24, 2021 10:07 pm

There is no data to support that assertion. None.”

Well there is data to support it but there is also data to support that shark attacks increase with increased use of ice-cream.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 25, 2021 8:50 am

You have picked up on the exact reason why I made the comment, Janice.

DipChip
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 25, 2021 4:45 am

I’m tracking this personal weather station and 5 day history hourly: on the Columbia east of Portland .

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KORCORBE24

Jake J
Reply to  DipChip
June 25, 2021 2:21 pm

You can track mine too. We live above the Columbia 70 miles east of Portland. The temp on the river is typically 5-7 degrees higher than it is here. As of 2:20 p.m. Friday, we’re at 88 degrees, which is 5 degrees cooler than the hot spell a little while back. Word is that Saturday and Sunday will be hotter.

https://tinyurl.com/snowdenbarn

Kenji
June 24, 2021 6:16 pm

OMG! Mt. Rainer will melt like a giant ice cream cone ! A 100ft wall of ice water will roll off it’s slopes all the way to the Seattle CHOP zone! Real wrath of Gaia kinda destruction. Dogs, cats, living together!

Hal McCombs
Reply to  Kenji
June 24, 2021 6:26 pm

Such pretty dreams you have.

beng135
Reply to  Kenji
June 25, 2021 6:13 am

And the mountain lion shall lay down with the lamb.

Last edited 1 month ago by beng135
n.n
June 24, 2021 6:16 pm

100… 80… today, 60, brrr. Too hot. Too cold. Too wet. Do the modern science [climate] hustle.

Rich Davis
Reply to  n.n
June 25, 2021 2:02 pm

Do it!
Doot doot doot da doot da doot doot doot,
Doot doot doot da doot da doot doot doot.

Do the Hustle!
The Climate Hustle!

gbaikie
June 24, 2021 6:21 pm

Well whether forecast good or not. People should live on the beach.
So need low income housing on the beach.
Without murdering anyone, we built cheap ocean settlements in which anyone who
wants to live on the beach, can live on the beach.
No more worries of hot weather and phantom worries of sea level rise.
No forest fires because politicans are incompetent.
All that needed is being able to buy ocean area at reasonable price.

gringojay
Reply to  gbaikie
June 24, 2021 8:36 pm

Venice Beach in California awaits you.

27D9B6F8-23D5-40B5-B880-C0F2CB6CE57D.jpeg
Sweet Old Bob
June 24, 2021 6:35 pm

And the jet stream contribution is ????

Stream is loopy as heck .

Felix
June 24, 2021 7:15 pm

I use an Android app “FlowX” which lets you select the model to use. None of them show any temps over 100 for Bellinghame (where I have relatives), I’ve been checking since I first heard of this. “NOAA GFS (FV3) 25km” shows a high of 85 Sunday and Monday. “CMD GDPS 15km” shows highs of 90 and 91. The others are similar.

I am really curious what they show in the next few days, and what reality brings.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Felix
June 24, 2021 8:37 pm

Bellingham.

Scott
June 24, 2021 7:21 pm

I hope you’re wrong but here in Montana we are scheduled for the low 100s with a slight respite into the high 90s beginning to build on Tuesday and continue on through the holiday weekend

Andy Espersen
June 24, 2021 7:24 pm

This amazingly clever meteorologist may well be right – but so what?? It may well be the biggest heat wave in the last 50 years – but so what??

We are in a period of warming climate – but so what?? A minute portion of the warming may well be caused by rising CO2 levels – but so what??

Let us assess the situation in a couple of weeks.

beng135
Reply to  Andy Espersen
June 25, 2021 6:17 am

Weather changes often, even every day & night!

Last edited 1 month ago by beng135
Dennis
June 24, 2021 7:26 pm

Check the real weather conditions data record and discover really hot periods in the past, not unusual when compared over the long term.

It annoys me in Australia during summers when the evening television news presenter uses emotional descriptions of the day, like hottest ever, and I smile knowing that to create a false warming trend our BoM ignores the hot conditions before 1910 because the records would not support their warming propaganda public scare campaign, climate hoax.

waza
Reply to  Dennis
June 24, 2021 10:23 pm

Dennis your are correct.
For Melbourne, Australia alarmists predict hot days (over 35 deg C) will increase from 8 per year to 16 per year in 2050.

However, there were many years pre 1910 with more than 16 hot days.

Example 1898 with 26 days over 35 deg C

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  waza
June 25, 2021 12:49 am

Yes, Waza,
The picture that speaks a thousand words:
http://www.geoffstuff.com/century_days_sydmelb.jpg
Geoff S

Dennis
June 24, 2021 7:32 pm

Not long ago I was handed a copy of the Special 100th Edition of a country district newspaper with one page for each year. I noted the several serious flooding periods and very hot periods including when birds fell exhausted from the sky.

That newspaper is from Kempsey in New South Wales on the coastal strip but a little inland from the ocean.

Ben Fox
June 24, 2021 7:45 pm

Will air- conditioner use crash the fragile grid?

Richard Patton
Reply to  Ben Fox
June 25, 2021 1:27 pm

Not in Oregon and Washington. The Utilities say that they have plenty of power to spare. Now if this heatwave had been in California (at 40deg above normal like it is forecasted here) that would be a different story.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Richard Patton
June 25, 2021 2:15 pm

Oh, you’re talking Fahrenheit I guess, but if 100 or 105 is 40F above your normal, you’re saying that normal is a high of 60-65F in late June? What an unpleasant climate. A bit of warming is in order.

Geoff Sherrington
June 24, 2021 7:54 pm

How I miss my old friend Steven Mosher, who would have often commented on climate topics like this, but has now gone fairly silent. Mosh, we miss you.
However, advertisers in my Melbourne region are heavily into promotion of MOSH. In this case, “Mens’ Online Sexual Health.” (They do not know how to use the plural possessive apostrophe, though Steven does.) Geoff S

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
June 24, 2021 8:42 pm

I don’t miss his drive-by abuse. His posts of substance were extremely rare.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
June 25, 2021 2:19 pm

And Geoff’s account of Mosh’s punctuation skill is what I like to call “inventive memory”! Let’s not even think about his capitalization!

John
June 24, 2021 8:28 pm

this is very informative
thankyou for spending time to layout the situation clearly
I hope you have a lucky cool change and don’t get exposed to such extremes
drink plenty of water and stay in a shady but breezy place if possible

RobR
June 24, 2021 8:50 pm

Off topic. Robert Felix has passed away. Many of you will recall Robert’s posts from the Ice Age Now blog.
Cause of death is unknown, but his (perhaps) final post alluded to the rapid onset of an unknown ailment that was sapping his strength and mobility.

RIP Robert Felix

Romeo Rachi
Reply to  RobR
June 25, 2021 9:59 am

My heart breaks right now. I loved his blog. He will be missed. Thank you for the updates.

nankerphelge
June 24, 2021 9:30 pm

If they are right or close they are heroes.
If they are wrong it will be Trump’s fault!

Jeff Reppun
June 24, 2021 9:46 pm

What Cliff Mass is relying on are WEATHER models, not Climate models. Generally weather models work reasonably well. Highest Washington State Temperature was 118 deg. F in 1928, repeated in 1961. Oregon record is 119 deg. F in 1898. We will see if either of both states join the 3 states that have all time high temperature records set in this century.

I consider Cliff Mass a pretty straight shooter. He does believe in climate models but gets himself in trouble when he sees claims by media and politicians that attribute weather, fire, ocean acididification, etc. to climate change when there is no actual science to support it.

angech
Reply to  Jeff Reppun
June 24, 2021 10:01 pm
..EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY
TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot temperatures of 98 to 103 likely, with
  temperatures locally 104 to 109 are possible. Overnight low
  temperatures mostly 65 to 70 degrees, but few spots such as the
  Columbia River Gorge and the Portland-Vancouver metro area may
  only cool down to the mid-70s Saturday and Sunday nights.

* WHERE...All of the lower elevations of southwest Washington
  and northwest Oregon, except for those along the coast.

* WHEN...Saturday through Monday evening.
angech
Reply to  angech
June 24, 2021 10:06 pm

Local heat and cold extremes are nothing new .
Just had a polar vortex in Australia with the coldest June day in 126 years.
Crickets.
We have also had a couple of really warm years.
If we were a “stable “climate the longer we keep records the more likely they are to be broken in either direction.
We had near 40 days of 40 C in Northern Victoria in 1981. Nothing like that since.
Best of luck Washington.

angech
Reply to  angech
June 24, 2021 10:12 pm

Pendleton in Oregon recorded the highest ever temperature of 119°F (48.3°C) on August 10, 1898, while Seneca recorded the coldest temperature of -54°F (-47.8°C) on February 10, 1933.

Ooops that was 3 centuries ago.
Not many decades.
Please ignore.

Pat from kerbob
June 24, 2021 10:12 pm

I’m putting in a formal request for max 25C every day here in calgary, sunny 6 days with 1” of rain on Wednesday.
Repeat.

I want to know my mandated personal CO2 contribution required to achieve this.

If CO2 is the knob that controls the climate I wish to be in charge.

All hail.

Mike
June 24, 2021 10:13 pm

Let me end with the golden rule of temperature extremes: the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming. ”

A nice adage. Make sure CNN and BBC hear it.

June 24, 2021 10:45 pm

Can you imagine the temperature gradients near the coast… from the 60s to over 100F in a matter of a few miles?

Surely that is gonna create the most massive convection as Pacific wet air gets sucked in and punched up into the stratosphere?

Richard Patton
Reply to  Leo Smith
June 25, 2021 1:24 pm

Actually not. The water temperature is too cold (58F as of this morning) to put enough moisture in the air to cause any action when it gets heated to those insane temperatures. When it gets this hot in the PACNW, the persistent summer low clouds over the coastal waters and beaches dissipates.

June 24, 2021 10:53 pm

The high temperatures in the NW US if it happens will be from high UV index due to clear skies today days after the solstice. These UV alert forecast and UV map links update daily:
comment image
comment image

High UVI in the SW will lead to southern hot air building north too.

June 24, 2021 11:16 pm

Interestingly, one sees more of such extreme synoptic pressure setups when the globe is in cooling mode with wavier jet stream tracks and increased global cloudiness.
In this case timing and wind direction are also important because we have the sun at maximum power this time of year and the effect is magnified by downslope warming in the easterly flow.

Richard Patton
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
June 25, 2021 1:17 pm

There is some truth in that. Philidelphia got its all-time February high temperature (I think it was 73F) in the early 1800’s during the Little Ice Age.

Alex
June 24, 2021 11:23 pm

I am in Moscow right now.
It is hot like hell here. All all-time records have been broken for three days in a row, and it is still heating up!
Yesterday I was in a train and the outside temperature was measured at 43C. All previous temperature records for the previous 145 years here were around +33C.

This heatwave IS incredible!

Forrest Gardener
June 24, 2021 11:52 pm

It would be handy to have some figures to quantify the historical accuracy of the forecasts.

stinkerp
June 25, 2021 12:55 am

Increasing CO2 is probably the biggest contributor to the (2°F over 50 years) warming

And you know CO2 is the biggest contributor how? Assuming there has been about 1°C (1.8°F) warming since 1970 as you suggest, atmospheric CO2 was 326 ppm in 1970 and is 419 now, increasing by 93 ppm or 28%. It takes a doubling of CO2 to raise temperature 1°C (ie.; 652 ppm) but CO2 has only increased a fraction of that, so how could it be the “biggest contributor” to warming? It’s evident that nature is the biggest contributor. Or the urban heat island effect which biases the temperature upward at so many weather stations.

Last edited 1 month ago by stinkerp
meab
Reply to  stinkerp
June 25, 2021 8:35 am

Usually, Cliff Mass is reasonable, but attributing the majority of the warming to CO2 is speculative. In addiition, claiming that 2 degrees of the heat wave is owing to global warming is flat false. Most of the warming has been in winter and overnight temps, NOT in summer daytime temps.

Joel Patterson
June 25, 2021 12:56 am

I live in Portland, Or. I remember the heat wave back 1981 when it hit 107 and was above 100 for five days. Hard to say if global warming is going to make this up coming heat wave even hotter. Only warmed up around 1F in 40 years. Seems more like just a freak weather event.

Reply to  Joel Patterson
June 25, 2021 3:55 am

1981 is forty years ago.
So back then we were also in the meridional phase of the climate cycle.
The intervening 30-year zonal phase of the natural 60-year climate cycle is over for now.
We must get used to this.

DonM
Reply to  Joel Patterson
June 25, 2021 4:12 pm

I was in hot humid Alabama for the first four days of that heat. I flew back to Portland and stepped off the plane at about 7pm, expecting some nice cool weather, but it felt like I was still in Alabama weather.

Coastal influenced weather in the inland valleys are very nice here in the summers. But sometimes it gets hot, like other parts of the country.

griff
June 25, 2021 1:38 am

Don’t forget Siberia: one location there just set a day minimum temp equal to previous record high…

beng135
Reply to  griff
June 25, 2021 7:58 am

Siberia sighs in relief from the most-of-the-year deadly cold.

June 25, 2021 2:12 am

An anticyclonic stream of dry northerly air flowing through Alberta in western Canada turns to flow to the west in Washington State. The air flow descends towards the Pacific ocean along the line of the Columbia River valley, warming as it loses elevation.

This is a standard Foehn Wind weather event associated with the 30-year long Meridional phase of.the natural 60-year climate cycle.
Nothing to see here, move on.

Steve Z
Reply to  Philip Mulholland
June 25, 2021 9:57 am

This is probably similar to the dry, warm Santa Ana winds (from the east) that sometimes blow in California when a big anticyclone (high-pressure area) sets up over Oregon or Idaho. The fact that this is occurring shortly after the summer solstice means that the sun’s heating power is near its maximum, with no clouds to block it out, and the cooling “marine layer” is blown farther out to sea.

This can sometimes occur in other areas with ocean to the west, and a large land area to the east, which are accustomed to winds blowing from the west off the ocean, which normally results in relatively cool summers and mild winters. About 20 years ago, along the west coast of France (where summer temperatures rarely exceed 85 F), a large anticyclone stalled over England and Scandinavia for over a week in July, sending strong easterly winds across northern France with cloudless skies, and temperatures soared above 35 C (95 F) for several consecutive days.

If such an event occurs in winter, it usually brings unusually cold weather to northern France, since the warming effect of the Gulf Stream is neutralized, and long, clear nights enable heat to be radiated into space.

The CO2 concentration in the air has very little effect on the weather, if any. We can all read “long-term averages” (over 30 years or more) for the high and low temperature for a given date, but there are lots of large deviations in both directions around these averages, most of which depend on the relative positions of high- and low-pressure areas and the jet stream relative to the location in question, and the wind direction and speed (whether it’s blowing off a large body of water, or off land or mountains).

Sara
June 25, 2021 4:20 am

Okay, well, nothing personal but I think I will continue to peruse the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers Almanac, and the National Weather Service’s forecasts, which are pretty close to the mark.

While I”m perpetually puzzled about the reaction to having a little hot summer weather, I will add here, as I have said before, that I prefer a nice, cozy warm planet over a frozen snowball.

Yooper
Reply to  Sara
June 25, 2021 5:39 am

And here in the Mid West we forecast to have rain for the next seven days. The Surface Analysis for CONUS has ten Lows from the Atlantic to the Pacific, but only two Highs.

Sara
Reply to  Yooper
June 25, 2021 6:26 am

Yes, we are and it started on Sunday evening where I am. I am happy to see it continue to drip out of the sky, kind of like watching a pitcher of iced tea sweat in the summer humidity. We do need it, rather badly, and now my lawn no longer looks like the middle of September. I’d better get a small pack of grass seed for the few bare spots.

Wayne Moore
June 25, 2021 4:29 am

Sir, I may not agree with the predictions, but you have presented the information in a concise and informative manner

Peter Morris
June 25, 2021 5:22 am

My son would be happy for a little bit of that heat. He’s got swim practice in an hour (9:15), and it’s currently 63 here in Charlotte, NC. The high is only 82, same as the last two days.

I grew up in the South. These kinds of temps are “normal,” but below what you expect for the end of June.

But all anyone talks about is when it gets too hot. Then it’s all because of our cars.

Coach Springer
June 25, 2021 6:36 am

So one (up to two) degrees warmer – in that region – than a time that caused climatistas to warn of an ice age. I sense 1 -2 degrees H(ype).

Dave
June 25, 2021 7:07 am

Somewhere on Antarctica next week it could easily be 200 degrees(f) colder than it will be in the Pacific Northwest. 200 degrees is more than the differential between freezing water and boiling water. It’s quite a remarkable planet we live on..

Wharfplank
June 25, 2021 7:56 am

Antifa will howl at the Strawberry moon over this…

Philip
June 25, 2021 9:45 am

Since most of the excess heat is the result of the compression of the air, it follows that as the air decompresses, it will become colder than “normal”.

Where is this cooling effect showing up in these models?

Jean Parisot
June 25, 2021 10:08 am

The proximate cause of this event is a huge/persistent ridge of high pressure, part of a highly anomalous amplification of the upper-level wave pattern. 
There is no evidence that such a wave pattern is anything other than natural variability (I have done research on this issue and published in the peer-reviewed literature on this exact topic).”

Ok, what are the contributing causes of these events? Is this similar to the blocking high over Siberia that got everyone excited recently? Are these patterns more likely as the jet stream meanders?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Jean Parisot
June 25, 2021 7:48 pm

“There is no evidence that such a wave pattern is anything other than natural variability”

That’s right. Lots of things are being attributed to jet stream behavior, but, as you say, there is no evidence it is anything other than natural variability (Mother Nature). Although there are some interesting conjectures.

Richard Patton
June 25, 2021 1:11 pm

I was a weather forecaster in the pre-PC days before we had access to multiple models with the ability to compare them. I had only 2 models NOGAPS (Navy) and GFS. Today the forecasters have 10 models and the ability to compare them all. When I went through forecasting school we were told to never forecast all-time record temperatures (understandable since we had so little access to different models). Now there are 7 out of 10 models with the best of them (the ECMWF) going for temperatures above 110F for PDX and even slightly higher on Monday. But it looks like all the forecasters in Portland are stuck in the “never forecast higher than the all-time record” mode even if it means you throw out all the guidance It appears to me that is what they are doing-they are only going for 1 deg F over the record. (Cowards). I think the forecasters are going to be making all kinds of excuses come Monday morning.

Mihail
June 25, 2021 1:23 pm

I think they underestimate the amount of negative latent heat that is still present in this area so early in the season. First of all the land is still quite moist after the rainy season not having ended too long ago. Also looking up the window towards the mountains you can still see quite some significant snow-pack and that not only on Mount Rainier and Baker, but on most of the ridges in the Cascades and the Olympics. The melting and evaporation can absorb a lot of the heat and then the evaporation can condensate in the high atmosphere that can increase the albedo and partially block the insolation.

Ruleo
June 25, 2021 1:23 pm

I’ve been following this for a bit. There is no way any of this is actually ‘reality’.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-119.05,37.68,417 (you can change parameters on the lower left)

Mike Maguire
June 25, 2021 3:38 pm

Cliff is one of the best, objective and extraordinarily knowledgeable meteorologists in the business. In an elite class.
In covering it myself, I went to a source from the last 2 decades, the EPA heat wave page/graphic and found that they wiped out the significance of the widespread/long lived 1930’s, Dust Bowl heat waves.
It’s like the sequel to Michael Mann’s hockey stick(that rewrote global climate history and wiped out the Medieval WARM period/optimum) ……this is some mega corrupt data altering and they are BUSTED!
See the compelling evidence that the corrupt United States EPA, in April 2021, rewrote US heat wave history to wipe out the true significance of the long lived, widespread heat waves during the Dust Bowl decade………1930’s……….to make global warming/climate change appear to be MUCH worse than it really is today.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71521

Proof that record highs are NOT increasing:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71518

Half of the record highs that still stand today, were set in the 1930’s:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71520

Mike Maguire
Reply to  Mike Maguire
June 26, 2021 9:08 am

Provided the analysis for how the EPA accomplished their wiping out the true significance of the record smashing hottest decade ever……the 1930’s:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71612

Kit P
June 25, 2021 5:20 pm

What a beautiful day in the PNW! Mt Rainier is 120 miles away and gorgeous.

The heat advisory is valid. People in Seattle are clueless. Normally their bodies are cooled by drizzle. They go a little crazy when it is nice and over do it.

Many years ago we were boat camping near Wallula Gap with a predicted high 116 degrees F. I knew I had to get my wife out of the heat and booked a hotel room. Instead I dropped her off at the ER and she had stents put in.

Association is not causation! I listened as the doctor questioned her. She had been feeling bad for a month. When I asked her 30 minutes before she said she was ‘fine’.

Back home from vacation, a neighbor called us to come over and watch his elderly mother while an ambulance took him to the ER. Based on test results there is different treatment for indigestion.

So enjoy beautiful days but do not stupidity shorten the number of those days you have.

Tom Abbott
June 25, 2021 6:56 pm

From the article: “Our region has warmed by up to 1-2F during the past fifty years and that will enhance the heatwave.”

So you are starting your determination in the 1970’s, which is the only way you can claim “our region has warmed by up to 1-2F during the past fifty years”.

If you start in the 1930’s, your region, and the entire United States and the North American continent are actually cooler than in the 1930’s, so we are in a temperature downtrend, not an uptrend. So how can it be claimed that we are warming, and this warming is implied to be unprecedented, when we are in a temperature downtrend?

From the article: “Increasing CO2 is probably the biggest contributor to the warming”

An unsubstantiated assertion.

chickenhawk
June 26, 2021 3:36 am

For those that live in the South, and have humidity, 100F heat index is common and expected. We also have years where the air temp gets to 100F and then the heat index on top. So summer can get hot, but luckily we live in a time where a room ac can be had for under $300. Ice cubes, refrigeration, air conditioning….this is life in the South. Quit freaking, these are not the End Times. Maybe even embrace it; put on the swim trunks, turn on the sprinklers, and frolic like a child!

harrywr2
Reply to  chickenhawk
June 26, 2021 5:14 am

I live near Seattle…there are no room air conditioners for sale within 100 miles.
I have things called windows which I normally open at night and close during the day.

It’s 5 AM and the windows have been opened all night…the temp in the house is down to 76 from a high of 84 at sunset . Yesterday at this time the temp in the house was 66.

Our homes don’t come with things call ‘heat pumps’…they come with ‘furnaces’. Rich people in multi-million dollars homes don’t have central air.

There have only been 3 100+ degree days in history in Seattle.

Anyone who thinks the grid is going to survive temps 12 degrees above the previous record high temp is delusional. The current forecast for Monday is 115 degrees.

If the 115 degree forecast comes to pass there will be plenty of dead bodies.

chickenhawk
Reply to  harrywr2
June 26, 2021 8:26 am

I understand that predicament. I remember the problem in Europe when a heat wave hit and the folks that suffered were in the city, with no ac, and no one to come and check on them.

If there were cheap abundant energy, reliable power grid and simple small one room air conditioners, there would be no problem.

If the power fails, hopefully there will be a central location with generator to provide for the people.

Jim Whelan
June 26, 2021 12:10 pm

Weather happens. Recod=rd high temoeratures happen. Always have always will. It’s a characteristic of chaotic systems to have the occasional highest (and lowest) values even if th previous measurements go back 50, 100o, 200, 1000 years, there will be records set.

And regarding:

Can you imagine the temperature gradients near the coast… from the 60s to over 100F in a matter of a few miles?

I live inland in Southern California, 20 miles from the coast and we frequently have 100+ degree days when it’s in the 60’s or 70’s on the coast.

Jack
June 26, 2021 1:24 pm

Unusual cold end of june temperatures in France with rain and storms.

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