“Major Scientific Breakthrough”…Scientists “Step Closer To Predicting North Atlantic Climate”

Reposted from the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin on 28. May 2021

A team of scientists believe they’ve made a forecasting breakthrough, suggesting the NAO is in fact highly predictable.

Especially Europe’s winter temperatures are modulated by the North Atlantic atmospheric pressure pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

As the name implies, it describes the natural fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. These fluctuations control the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic, and thus much of Europe’s weather. It has nothing to do with CO2.

Promise of greater skill at seasonal forecasts

Having the ability to predict these fluctuations months ahead naturally would be a very useful tool for agriculture, commerce and overall preparedness.

Now German Die kalte Sonne reports in their 40th video how researchers have made “a breakthrough” forecasting the NAO. In a recent paper appearing in the journal Nature titled: “North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply“, by Smith et al.

Breakthrough: NAO highly predictable

The large team of researchers assessed climate model predictions of the past six decades and showed that “decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are in fact highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs.”

The authors say that current models underestimate the predictable signal of the North Atlantic Oscillation by one full order of magnitude.

Image: Smith et al, Nature.

Now the scientists hope “to deliver robust NAO forecasts in the future,” reports Die kalte Sonne. There’s no mention of any connection to trace gas CO2.

In September 2020, a paper by Lüdecke et al studied the correlation of AMO, NAO and sunspots with European temperatures for the period 1901–2015 and found a strong link between the NAO and central/northern Europe December-March temperatures.

In April 2021, another paper by Luedecke et al, “Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall“, showed how Africa climate variability was linked to natural oceanic and solar cycles.

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Pieter Steenekamp
May 29, 2021 2:42 am

Schadenfreude to all you science deniers.
What more proof do you want that we are doomed and human-made CO2 is causing it?

David Guy-Johnson
Reply to  Pieter Steenekamp
May 29, 2021 3:47 am

Nice sarcasm

HAS
May 29, 2021 2:58 am
lance wallace
Reply to  HAS
May 29, 2021 6:03 am

HAS–Thanks for the preprint. Figure 2a is highly risible, comparing the observed NAO to that predicted by the ensemble of 169 models. The predicted curve barely departs from the zero line while the 95% uncertainty range is 10 or 20 times larger.

Max Dupilka
Reply to  HAS
May 29, 2021 9:56 am

I read through much of the paper. For anyone wanting to do a comparison of models with observations, this paper is an excellent example of what is required in terms of a scientific presentation. And a complete explanation and analysis of the chosen models along with extensive literature review and references. A lot of work.

May 29, 2021 2:58 am

We’ve known since ~forever that increasing atmospheric CO2 does not drive weather or climate.
The only significant impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 is much-improved plant-and-crop yields.
Oh yes, increasing CO2 also drives a sect of loony climate scientists to falsely speculate about runaway global warming, to gather together and bay at the moon.

Bill Powers
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
May 29, 2021 8:16 am

“…increasing CO2 also drives a sect of loony climate scientists to falsely speculate about runaway global warming, to gather together Government Grants and bay at the moon.”

There fixed it for you Allan. Otherwise spot on.

Reply to  Bill Powers
May 29, 2021 9:12 am

Well said BIll..

Sara
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
May 29, 2021 9:12 am

Oh, come on, Allan. You gotta give them something! Without RGW, they got NOTHING! NOTHING, I tell ya! It’s their reason to get up in the morning, y’see. Without that, they are just lost souls, trying to fit together the real reason for a volcano spewing gases and magma up in Iceland, and the reason is: (wait for it!) it sits on the mid-Atlantic ridge which is splitting there. More island building for Iceland. Ditto Erta Ale in the Danakil Depression in Ethiopia. That sits on the east African rift!

Why aren’t they fussing about all the noxious gases ejected into the atmosphere by the dozens of volcanoes currently erupting, never mind those showing signs of pending eruptions? As Uncle Toba told us so very, very, VERY long ago, it only takes one very large, prolonged squawk from a major hole in the earth’s crust, whether above or below water and wer’e all doomed! DOOMED!, I tell ya!

Think of all the grants money and free stuff they’d miss out on if they turn out to be wrong….

Poor things!

Sara
Reply to  Sara
May 29, 2021 9:14 am

I meant to ask if the wandering magnetic North Pole has anything to do with stirring the magma pot below the Earth’s crust, but that’s a discussion we can have elsewhere and elsewhen.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Sara
May 29, 2021 12:08 pm

Eftsoon, perhaps.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
May 29, 2021 11:58 am

In SFO, they also moon at the bay.

george1st:)
May 29, 2021 3:01 am

It’s easy to predict the weather after it’s happened .

Reply to  george1st:)
May 29, 2021 7:50 am

Now the scientists hope “to deliver robust NAO forecasts in the future” .
A hope eternal.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  george1st:)
May 29, 2021 10:42 am

As Niels Bohr said:

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.

Samuel Goldwyn agreed when he quipped …

“… never make predictions – especially about the future”

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Rory Forbes
May 29, 2021 1:16 pm

Abraham Lincoln said, “If you got it off the Internet, chances are it’s wrong.”

Rory Forbes
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
May 29, 2021 3:06 pm

Considering the vast quantity of material on the internet, it’s more than likely Lincoln was wrong about that. The facts are there, but the trick is to recognize the difference.

Ed Zuiderwijk
May 29, 2021 3:37 am

But! But! Lysenko’s reincarnation Michel Mann has just proved that the NAO does not exist. Because they do not form in his super-duper model.

Decisions, decisions. Whom to believe is the question (eh, not really).

Scissor
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
May 29, 2021 5:38 am

Good points and I’m not buying Mann’s hair tonic.

alastair gray
Reply to  Scissor
May 29, 2021 6:37 am

If the good Michael did Liposuction he could sell the extract – as snake oil.
Non half as bad as the drooling bile that he does so successfully sell. Ad Hominem I.m afraid and against our code but I make exceptions for Distinguished Professors of being mediocre

shrnfr
Reply to  Scissor
May 29, 2021 7:27 am

Just as long as you do not use Boris Johnson’s barber, you will probably be ok.

Reply to  shrnfr
May 29, 2021 12:44 pm

Boris does not employ a barber.
Incompetent topiarist – perhaps . . .

Auto

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  shrnfr
May 29, 2021 1:20 pm

The sight impaired have a right to work, too.

David A
Reply to  Scissor
May 29, 2021 12:30 pm

Mann said he was not bald, just taller then his hair.

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
May 29, 2021 9:06 am

Yeah, my first thought was, “Poor Mikey Fraudpants.”

I wonder what sort of damage control mode he’ll go into. Don’t see blasting the reviewers and editor of Nature as an option.

lee
May 29, 2021 3:57 am

Now all they have to do is qualify exactly how much natural variation in the temperatures. And of course that’s only one basin.

Bob Hunter
Reply to  lee
May 29, 2021 9:30 am

On CNN website today: “The theory instead seems to persist mostly because of several massive coincidences.”

Except CNN was referring to COVID virus escaping from Wuhan Lab.

Sara
May 29, 2021 4:18 am

OK, but all I care about is how long I have to run the furnace to keep the house reasonably warm. Nearly June, and I’m still running it, which is NOT what normally happens around here in My Kingdom. And in addition, while there were plenty of violets as plants in my yard, NONE of them bloomed, which means it ain’t warm enough to bloom a violet. If the NAO is going to send cold weather my way (and it’s been snowing this past week up in Wisconsin), then knowing about that ahead of time makes it easier to figure the household budget.

Back to the loons…. they’re a lot more fun than the warmians!

Leo Smith
Reply to  Sara
May 29, 2021 4:34 am

I feel for you Sara. Here in England half my Alstromerias havent even sprouted and the Fuschias are well late showing signs of life, and yes, the heating is occasionally coming on.
I have spent a fortune on heating this winter.

jBW
Reply to  Leo Smith
May 29, 2021 6:30 am

just wait until boris has turned the gas off and see how much more it will cost

Scissor
Reply to  Sara
May 29, 2021 6:16 am
Klem
Reply to  Scissor
May 29, 2021 7:17 am

Luxury..

Sara
Reply to  Klem
May 29, 2021 9:22 am

Snow – 15 inches of it – this past week in Turkey, near Istanbul. I watch the cat guy who has outdoor kitties and decided it was so cold they should have an indoor shelter. Then it snowed and the silly hairballs begged to go outside and play in 15 inches of snow.

Sara
Reply to  Scissor
May 29, 2021 9:19 am

Yes, saw that, and where it’s been snowing in Wisconsin is south of that locaion. Weather radar also says snow in parts of Maine, never mind the western states that are getting it. Well, it does fill the water bodies, which is needed, too.

But we’re DOOMED!! DOOMED, I tellya!

Anyone for hot tea or hot cocoa w/small marshmallows?

Thomas Gasloli
May 29, 2021 5:51 am

“decadal variations in the North Atlantic winter climate are in fact highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs”

Say what? “Highly predictable despite a lack of agreement” and “poor predictive ability”—that doesn’t make any sense!

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Thomas Gasloli
May 29, 2021 7:49 am

They’re saying the models are crap. Looking at actual data, it’s predictable?

fretslider
May 29, 2021 5:56 am

“…assessed climate model predictions of the past six decades and showed that “decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are in fact highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs.”

This is heresy.

Expect to be burned at the stake on Twitter.

Scissor
Reply to  fretslider
May 29, 2021 6:39 am

In all things, the bar is being lowered by one side especially.

I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky.”

“I will repeat again. The NIH, and NIAID categorically has not funded gain of function research to be conducted in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”

fretslider
Reply to  Scissor
May 29, 2021 6:44 am

I thought the Clintons had their hands full running the Clinton News Network (CNN)?

The tail that woman, Miss Lewinsky’s mouth could tell….

Last edited 4 months ago by fretslider
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Scissor
May 29, 2021 10:52 am

“… but if we were funding gain of function it would not be under our name. And by the way, I never said that masks were not useful, but if I did, you heard it out of context.”

Reply to  fretslider
May 29, 2021 7:24 am

Easily avoided by avoiding Twitter. Just say “No” to social media.

taxed
May 29, 2021 6:26 am

The global jet stream has gone into LIA mode and its going to put a brake on further warming while it remains this way. Am now understanding how low sun spot activity forced changes in the global jet stream that allowed the climate cooling and the big swings in the weather patterning we saw during the LIA.
There are a number of ways these changes to the jet stream effect climate. One it allows for more air mass movement in and out of the Arctic circle. Which allows bigger swings between the weather and the timing of the seasons.
lt allows for a bigger difference within local climates,which in turn allow bigger swings within the weather. So you can have “a year without a summer in summer” in europe, but a heat wave in western Russia.
Also its now looking like it might force thunderstorms and hurricane’s within the mid Atlantic to work harder due to increased wind shear and so allowing more heat to be taken from the oceans.

Reply to  taxed
May 29, 2021 7:48 am

That are less the sunspots but the missing / reduced UV radiation that cools the thermosphere and lets shrink it.

taxed
Reply to  Krishna Gans
May 29, 2021 9:08 am

Yes if the shrinking of the thermosphere forces the other layers of the atmosphere to pest together then that goes some way to explaining what’s going on within the atmosphere and jet stream.

Reply to  taxed
May 29, 2021 9:23 am

It’s well known and studied a. o. by Lockwood, in 2010

There are also later papers.

Yooper
Reply to  taxed
May 29, 2021 9:46 am

I’ve wondered what effect the earth’s magnetic field has on the polar jet-stream and what is going to happen now that the magnetic north pole has moved and splint in two. How’s what for wildassed speculation, kinda like “climate science”, eh?

Reply to  taxed
May 29, 2021 9:55 am

The abnormal change in the thermosphere may also affect other layers of the atmosphere, and though less certain, can result in slight disruptions of satellite communications, including global-positioning system signals, Solomon said.

Scientists baffled by unusual upper atmosphere shrinkage

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Krishna Gans
May 29, 2021 1:49 pm

IIRR, although the TSI barely changes, the uv varies by an order of magnitude.

Sara
Reply to  taxed
May 29, 2021 9:31 am

If you address how this change in the jet stream will/may affect agriculture in general, and USA (for example) agriculture in particular, that would be very relevant.
For instance, winter wheat sprouts in January and is not affected by cold, comes to fruition ahead of summer wheat crops. So how might those commodities be affected by a real shift in weather patterns from a March through October growing season to an April, and possibly May, to October growing season? This isn’t trivial because a change that affects grain crops also affect fresh crops (fruits and veggies), and that needs to be taken into account.

taxed
Reply to  Sara
May 29, 2021 11:45 am

Hi Sara its looking like N America can expect colder winters as it looks like there is a greater risk of northern blocking during the winter months. During the spring and fall then l can see very large swings in both weather and temps, not just from season to season but also within the same season. As much depends in which side of the blocking pattern you are. This year l think there is likely to be early frosts and snow during the fall as am expecting the Arctic to be a little cooler this year. Planting and growing crops that are best in dealing with large swings in the weather is looking the best bet.

SAMURAI
May 29, 2021 7:10 am

A bizarre 3,000 KM long Gulf Stream cooling phenomenon has been occurring for over a year (from off the coast of North Carolina to 1,000 KM off the Southern tip of Greenland) where very cold deep-ocean plumes are punching through the Gulf Steam and causing the North Atlantic to cool.

I’ve looked for peer-reviewed papers on this phenomenon, but so far I haven’t found any.

This phenomenon partially explains the brutal winter Europe faced this past winter and may be a precursor to the AMO and NAO entering their respective cool cycles.

if anyone has any good ideas of what’s causing this phenomenon, I’d love to hear them

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ResourceGuy
Reply to  SAMURAI
May 29, 2021 12:08 pm

Great heads up

H. D. Hoese
May 29, 2021 8:15 am

The Gulf of Mexico is the meeting ground of tussles/battles between polar cold and tropical heat, variable across the northern shore. Does anybody have historical measurements of cold front numbers and penetration comparable to the same for tropical storms? It does seem like more now. Heat budgets involved, as in tropical systems, while related, are more important than numbers, as comments here point out examples.

ResourceGuy
May 29, 2021 9:47 am

Solar minimums are not created equal. Wish we could see at least a 3-cycle smoothing and correlations.

ResourceGuy
May 29, 2021 9:49 am

The word “breakthrough” is a red flag but not citing the miracle molecule makes it worthy of a full look.

Ulric Lyons
May 30, 2021 4:11 pm

If you can predict solar coronal hole stream speeds at long range, then you can predict NAO anomalies at long range.

May 31, 2021 1:06 pm

Luedeckrous!

May 31, 2021 1:08 pm

People must be setting deep learning algorithms to work on climate / weather records already. Interesting to see if they deep-learn anything.

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