France declares ‘calamité agricole’ after record cold

As we all know. It’s just weather ~cr

From The Connexion

France declares ‘calamité agricole’ after record cold: What is it?

The emergency support comes after freezing weather caused significant damage to crops

9 April 2021

The government has acknowledged the damage that many farmers had suffered to their crops as a result of the freezing weather.

By Hannah Thompson

Farmers across France will receive government support after the agriculture minister acknowledged the damage the cold had wreaked on crops; with the cold snap set to continue across the country.

Minister of Agriculture Julien Denormandie confirmed a state of “calamité agricole” – or farming disaster – yesterday (April 8), to acknowledge the damage that many farmers had suffered to their crops as a result of the freezing weather.

He told FranceInfo: “[We confirm] the implementation of what we call the calamité agricole scheme

What does that mean?

Normally, a calamité agricole is uninsurable.

But the government recognition and official definition of the situation means that it has committed to providing financial aid as compensation to the farmers and producers affected, as well as ensuring that insurers and banks will also cooperate.

Those affected will now also have access to compensation from the national agriculture risk fund, le Fonds national de gestion des risques en agriculture (FNGRA).

An official calamité agricole must be recognised by authorities before funds from insurers and other sources can be released. 

In France, the situation is most often declared due to drought, but this time it has been confirmed due to unseasonably cold temperatures, especially at night.

Mr Denormandie also said that the government had called on insurance companies to confirm their cooperation and support, as well as bankers and lenders.

He said: “We are organising a total emergency response so that support measures can be put in place as quickly as possible to ensure that no one is left behind.”

The article discusses the procedures and accounting of government aid to agriculture and includes this stark warning.

Mr Denormandie also said: “Unfortunately, we are expecting new freezes in the next few days to which we will be paying great attention, so the bill could rise. The situation is already very difficult.”

What temperatures are we talking about?

From Monday April 5, temperatures in some areas of France dropped suddenly to around 7C below the usual average. 

Wednesday April 7 was one of the coldest April days since 1930. 

Read the full article is here.

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John Dueker
April 11, 2021 6:06 pm

Coldest February in 30 years, April 9 freeze in France, when do we go back to predicting an upcoming ice age?

Scissor
Reply to  John Dueker
April 11, 2021 6:26 pm

My feet are cold, plus there is snow predicted for 5 out of the next six days and the ski season is supposed to end this week. Not sure about an ice age, but it’s definitely cooler than usual for the date.

Newminster
Reply to  Scissor
April 12, 2021 2:24 am

We’ve been living in south Burgundy for the last 11 years. The current overnight temperatures are certainly, by a fair margin, the lowest March/April temps in that time and the forecast is for more of the same for the rest of this week.
Neighbours agree that there has been nothing comparable in their lifetime in terms of the lateness of the frosts. And their lifetime in some cases goes back to the 1930s!
It is, of course, only weather but about time our climastrologists accepted that tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, droughts and heatwaves are also “only weather” and their pseudo-scientific attempts to change civilisation by claiming these events have some deeper significance are simply wrong — to put it politely!

Ron Long
Reply to  Newminster
April 12, 2021 2:37 am

Newminster, please tell us if the wine grapes were/are affected? The suspense is getting to me. Thanks.

Climate believer
Reply to  Newminster
April 12, 2021 4:35 am

Sorry but the facts don’t support your anecdotal stories.

Do you, or your neighbours not remember the severe frost at the end of April 2016? After a mild winter, there were severe black frosts recorded at the end of April, with temperatures dropping to -3.5 ° C, the buds roasted. Those of the vines of course, but also of the fruit trees, in particular the cherry trees.

2017, the same thing, in the northern part of the Chablis vineyard around the communes of Maligny, Beine, and Ligny-le-Chatel, the frost caused significant damage and the temperatures dropped to -5°C in some exposed areas.

14th April 2019 Chateau Favray, Saint-Martin-sur-Nohain, -4/-5°C.

April frosts in these regions are by no means rare, or a thing of the past.

Richard Page
Reply to  Climate believer
April 12, 2021 4:47 am

You are perfectly correct in saying that small areas have been affected in past years. However this is the first time I can remember it being so widespread across larger areas. Also the first time it has been so severe that the French are treating it as a farming disaster. It’s not that it’s happened before but the scale hasn’t been seen in our lifetimes.

Stephen Richards
Reply to  Richard Page
April 12, 2021 5:21 am

Several times in the past 10 years a sinistre ou catastrophe naturel has been declared due to frost or hail.

Climate believer
Reply to  Richard Page
April 12, 2021 8:29 am

“However this is the first time I can remember it being so widespread across larger areas.”

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to minimise the disaster, it’s a bad one, maybe one of the worst considering the state of the economy, we’ll have to wait and see. I follow these extreme episodes in France and keep records rather than relying on memory.

The extreme frosts between the 17th and the 21st of April 2017 touched 52% of the territory. That’s pretty widespread.

“Also the first time it has been so severe that the French are treating it as a farming disaster.”

Again, as Stephen points out below that’s not true. The “Le régime des calamités agricoles” is most often used after major heatwaves destroy crops, but frost and flooding are also included. It was used last October to help after the terrible floods in the Alps-Maritimes. It’s been around since the sixties and has been used many times to help viticulteurs and arboriculteurs alike after natural disasters.
This is also Macron trying to score political points with already angry farmers, but I won’t go into that.

gel_avril_2017_30.png
Climate believer
Reply to  Climate believer
April 12, 2021 8:30 am

Some of the temperatures recorded during that late April period 2017

gel_avril_2017_29.png
robin townsend
Reply to  Climate believer
April 12, 2021 5:11 am

Late March, april heavy frosts are, in my anecdotal memory, common. We pften drive to the alps for easter and temperatures of -5 to -7 are not a surprise. The bloomin wine producers have a laugh too – the dramtically reduced crop often leads to a better vintage – less work for bigger profit margin.

Stephen Richards
Reply to  Newminster
April 12, 2021 5:20 am

I live a few kms from Bordeaux. We have had snow in april and frost for the last 2 years. We lost our potato crop last year and the year before but left to themselves they recovered by summer. Frost, hail etc are not uncommon in all the wine regions frombordeaux to bergerac to bourgogne and champagne. In the est they wait for the first frost to pick their premier cru white.

beng135
Reply to  Newminster
April 13, 2021 7:24 am

Thanks for the report. Very damaging frost here in the US mid-Appalachians last mid-May. Fortunately the farmers here in the local area know not to plant vulnerable crops until third week of May.

Last edited 1 month ago by beng135
RickWill
Reply to  John Dueker
April 11, 2021 6:54 pm

Glaciation is not starting this year. Tropical Atlantic has just nudged the 30C control limit west of Africa – a bit later than previous years but bodes well for boreal summer warming.

Open ocean surface at 30C is in energy balance. It develops sufficient cloud to limit surface insolation to just enough to balance the cooling from precipitation. If North Atlantic basin does not get to 30C in any year then that will be an early indicator of energy deficiency.

Screen Shot 2021-04-12 at 11.44.44 am.png
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  RickWill
April 13, 2021 2:51 pm

Did you just write two paragraphs to say that if it gets warmer, it will have warmed, and if it is colder, is means there is cooling?

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  John Dueker
April 11, 2021 8:14 pm

More to the point, what pretzel-twisting “explanation” will result in the predicted cooling STILL being the fault of fossil fuel use?

If the result of their proposed “policies” to “fight” what is purely natural weren’t so dire, the whole charade would actually be funny.

Alan Robertson
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
April 11, 2021 11:09 pm

They’ve had the explanation out there for years; warmer makes it colder.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Alan Robertson
April 11, 2021 11:40 pm

And Oceania has has always been at war with Eurasia…

jmcguire
Reply to  Alan Robertson
April 12, 2021 1:26 pm

Aren’t those the lyrics to a song:
;”Whatever makes you warmer makes you colder” ?

Reply to  AGW is Not Science
April 12, 2021 9:06 am

“CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET”
https://electroverse.net/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset/
 
It saddens me to see this cooling happening, as we predicted in 2002 – it’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck that we tried to warn people about, and nobody would listen. I’ve always been a builder, and to watch the global warming climate fraudsters repeatedly delude idiot politicians and the public has been a depressing debacle. Trillions of dollars of scarce global resources have been squandered on warmist frauds, as our society sleepwalked towards climate-and-green-energy disaster.
 
I have repeatedly stated that our idiot politicians have brewed the perfect storm,
destabilizing the electrical grid with intermittent green energy nonsense at a time when we will need more abundant, reliable energy due to imminent global cooling. I still hope this cooling will be mild and short-lived, but I have no strong opinion, having not done the work to try to quantify it. Let’s hope it is no worse than the Dalton Minimum, and not like the Maunder.
 

Last edited 1 month ago by ALLAN MACRAE
Richard (the cynical one)
Reply to  John Dueker
April 11, 2021 8:19 pm

This has EVERYTHING to do with AGW! and ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with global cooling, because there is a HOLY CONSENSUS on the subject, you pagan unbelieving infidels! you apostates! you deserving of intifada!

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Richard (the cynical one)
April 11, 2021 9:57 pm

This cold weather is proof that the fight against fossil fuels is working.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
April 11, 2021 11:45 pm

🤣,😂,🤣

Graemethecat
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
April 12, 2021 1:51 am

Don’t laugh, this will be the next argument of the Warmunists if cooling turns out to be real.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
April 12, 2021 3:55 am

Just need to tweak things a bit. Probably just need to raise taxes on cold weather. Maybe a degree day tax on retirement savings.

Spetzer86
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
April 12, 2021 4:05 am

Just wait until they get the Thames to freeze over again! We’ll all be so much better off. Wonder how cold France was when the Thames froze on a routine basis?

Roger
Reply to  Spetzer86
April 12, 2021 8:18 am

The Thames froze two months ago.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
April 13, 2021 2:53 pm

I thought it was proof than people with their heads jammed all the way up inside their own butts, know nothing about what is happening in the world?

Vuk
Reply to  John Dueker
April 12, 2021 12:18 am

SW London hit by global warming, snowing 1C.
Sixty years ago Yuri Gagarin’s completed a single orbit of the Earth.

H.R.
Reply to  Vuk
April 12, 2021 5:35 am

Correlation isn’t causation, Vuk. 😜

Vuk
Reply to  H.R.
April 12, 2021 7:54 am

You obviously don’t believe in 60 year cycle.

H.R.
Reply to  Vuk
April 12, 2021 10:43 am

Just teasing ya.

The way those two lines read it’s as if the single orbit caused the snow 60 years later. I got your point but couldn’t pass up using that line.

I can’t tell if you’re teasing right back at me. I know English isn’t your first language, but I’ve read most all of your comments over the years** and your English is very, very – did I remember to say very? – good now. But now and then, the structure can be a little off.

**Is it 14 or 15 years now you’ve been commenting here? 16 years, maybe?

Vuk
Reply to  H.R.
April 13, 2021 12:55 am

No, I’m seriously serious, in this case as always is, it is Russians’ fault, this is second time they done it, we had snowing in SW London exactly two months ago, after Boris had a go at Putin about some guy Navalny.

Gerry, England
Reply to  Vuk
April 12, 2021 12:46 pm

Yes, my corner of Surrey had about an inch of snow this morning.

Mark Pawelek
Reply to  John Dueker
April 12, 2021 3:36 am

Predicting upcoming ice-ages, by tea-leafing, astrology, or climate modeling, requires one to show people are irresponsible for it; otherwise you will be burnt as a witch, “fossil fuel shill”, “climate denier”, or all 3.

Stephen Richards
Reply to  Mark Pawelek
April 12, 2021 5:23 am

OOh Burned three times. That’s go to hurt

Neo
Reply to  John Dueker
April 12, 2021 9:59 am

Clearly, this is the result of Global Warming .. the omnipotent force that can do anything.

TonyG
Reply to  John Dueker
April 12, 2021 12:09 pm

I don’t know, but with this recent (last few years) “polar vortex” stuff I’ve been noticing a rather familiar shape to the North American snow & ice coverage.

Greg
Reply to  John Dueker
April 12, 2021 6:16 pm

First time 25 in southern France that I lit the fire in April . Been heating for the last week.

Where’s all that “run away warming” when you need it?

Terry
April 11, 2021 6:09 pm

When I signed up for global warming and agreed to burn a lot of hydro carbons I didn’t agree to this. I want my global warming (stamps feet)

Scissor
Reply to  Terry
April 11, 2021 6:15 pm

It could be worse. In Edmonton they make the churchgoers worship outside.

starzmom
Reply to  Scissor
April 11, 2021 6:41 pm

Eek!!

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Scissor
April 11, 2021 7:13 pm

It’s been a few generations since the population snuggled up to the Gestapo and allowed places of worship to be raided and the congregation jailed or prohibited. Those were the good old days, I guess people really do miss them.

The inmates are running the asylum.

Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
Reply to  Scissor
April 11, 2021 7:57 pm

I happen to be a couple of km from the church in question. Today hundreds of people showed up. Some tore down the fence erected by the police, and afterwards, some helped put it back up again. That was interesting.

People are allowed to use the church but at limited capacity. Apparently the preacher is not willing to give his sermon multiple times to satisfy the health officials.

Other churches and mega-churches in the area seem to have no problem with the limitations. They make a simple plan and get on with it.

Jon R
Reply to  Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
April 11, 2021 8:16 pm

Really forward thinking champ!

/s

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
April 11, 2021 11:07 pm

Yeah, that’s the general reaction in all totalitarian systems. The useful idiots and goody-two-shoes come out in droves to assist the storm troopers. Odd, that. It has been found that fewer than ten percent are needed to be hard line Nazis, Communists or Fascists of any stripe. The rest are more than willing to pitch right in and help do the deed. They’ll even turn in anyone who isn’t toeing the line. Totalitarian rule is so easily brought about. Freedom is so fragile.

Most of these so called “health measures” are (possibly) well meant and at least somewhat “scientific” … and in contravention of our freedoms, rights as well as the Nuremberg Code (for medical experiments)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Code

I have no duty of care to you are anyone but my own blood. If you want to distance … feel free … wear a mask … be my guest … or even shoot up experimental drugs … go ahead. But leave me free to do my own thing without guilt. These churches are showing the way. More need to follow.

Peta of Newark
Reply to  Scissor
April 11, 2021 10:52 pm

There’s an Edmonton in London also, in more ways than one….
But UK plod being the mendacious & zombiefied thugs that they are landed in Balham, about 15 miles away
At a Jewish church as well..

Quote: Met Police officers found some worshippers without masks and not socially distancing at Christ the King on Balham High Road, London“”
April 3rd
April 12th

Disputin
Reply to  Scissor
April 12, 2021 1:53 am

Is that Edmonton, London or Edmonton Alberta?

RickWill
Reply to  Terry
April 11, 2021 7:01 pm

I have no compassion for you. If you are silly enough to believe in a myth then you are getting what you deserve – no pity from me.

You can save your money, burning hydrocarbons is not going to result in global warming – Although you can burn them to keep you warm providing you have a roof over your head to retain the heat produced. Get in now before they are carbon taxed out of your price range.

Bob Hoye
Reply to  RickWill
April 11, 2021 7:56 pm

Many readers do not require an obvious “sarc”.
But some do.

John F Hultquist
Reply to  Bob Hoye
April 11, 2021 8:00 pm

– – winking smiley face – – Poe’s Law

Smart Rock
April 11, 2021 6:14 pm

If it were a heat wave, we would be dismissing it as “just weather”.

It would be intellectually dishonest not to do the same for a cold wave.

If it started happening with some regularity, that would be different.

Scissor
Reply to  Smart Rock
April 11, 2021 6:23 pm

“We” are not the ones putting forth the CO2 warming conjecture. In hypothesis testing, observations opposite of what is expected point to the hypothesis being falsified.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Smart Rock
April 11, 2021 7:16 pm

We have not been the ones always conflating regional weather events of short duration with climatic patterns for the whole world. AGW true believers are doing the projection, not us.

Bob Hoye
Reply to  Smart Rock
April 11, 2021 7:58 pm

You should be old enough to know that it is “heat waves” and “cold snaps”.
The weather-warming El Ninos of 1998 and 2016 are over.
Temps are now flat-lying for almost twenty years.

Redge
Reply to  Bob Hoye
April 11, 2021 11:20 pm

Temps are now flat-lying for almost twenty years.

I’m sure you meant flat-lining (autocorrect again!

I think I prefer “flat-lying 😂

H.R.
Reply to  Redge
April 12, 2021 5:58 am

If you’re going to fix it, do it right, Redge.

It’s flat-out lying temps after all the massaging.

Redge
Reply to  H.R.
April 12, 2021 6:34 am

Self massaging probably

EOM
Reply to  Bob Hoye
April 12, 2021 6:52 am

In the past, “flat lying” would tell you to watch your fingers or some penchant of yours for carelessness. LATELY, such errors are almost always “auto-correct” especially for “Facebook” postings, AND you must be willing to “correct” the “community (communist) standard” “suggestion” three or four times.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  Smart Rock
April 11, 2021 8:17 pm

If it started happening with some regularity, that would be different.

Just in case it becomes important later, could you offer a defintion of ‘some regularity’?

RickWill
Reply to  Smart Rock
April 11, 2021 9:41 pm

Need to take every opportunity to call out this RGHE lunacy. All knowledgeable people should make it their duty to inform the ill-informed.

My most recent work shows how hopeless climate models are at coping with well documented trendless regions like the Nino34 – hard to have a warming trend where there is none. It means the past has to be cooled to absurd degree to produce a current temperature that resembles reality.

Attached shows the efforts of a couple of European climate prognosticators.

Slide4.PNG
Steve Case
Reply to  RickWill
April 11, 2021 10:04 pm

 RGHE = Radiative Green House Effect
It took more than a simple search to find that out.
Please define your acronyms.

RickWill
Reply to  Steve Case
April 11, 2021 11:03 pm

I apologise. I thought is had been used up thread but it was on another thread earlier today.

Scissor
April 11, 2021 6:14 pm

Children in Tahiti just won’t know what snow is.

Pauleta
Reply to  Scissor
April 11, 2021 7:26 pm

Cuba too.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Pauleta
April 12, 2021 11:37 am

And they thank you for it, i remember being in cuba on a +18C day in february, i was sweating in shorts and all the locals were wearing winter parkas.

Tom Halla
April 11, 2021 6:27 pm

Having lived through the St Valentine’s Day freeze and extended blackout in Texas, claims of global warming are even more ridiculous.
If climate change can produce results in either polarity, it is more theology than science. The Devil CO2 did it!!

fred250
April 11, 2021 6:52 pm
Craig from Oz
Reply to  fred250
April 11, 2021 8:14 pm

If only Scott Morrison had appointed more women to senior positions…

April 11, 2021 6:56 pm

only 7C below average? that can’t be right

Rick C
Reply to  billtoo
April 11, 2021 9:10 pm

Yea, saw that too. Maybe they mean 7C below the average low?

Rory Forbes
April 11, 2021 7:08 pm

I’m beginning to have no sympathy whatsoever. Initially, weather watching, weather prediction and “climatology” was a discipline directed towards agriculture … feeding people. But … modern times managed to convert man’s preoccupation with the weather into a political juggernaut of population control and a cash grab by globalists, progressives and the hard Left. Everyone got their noses in the trough, losing sight of the real purpose of trying to predict the weather … agriculture. Now people are bored by a real crisis … COLD, not a few 100ths of a degree of warmth.

dk_
April 11, 2021 7:29 pm

French eco terrorists may have a hard time convincing les gilets jaunes to give up petroleum now.

Climate believer
Reply to  dk_
April 12, 2021 1:58 am

Interesting to note that I have already seen reports that point out that the real problem isn’t the cold in April, it was the unprecedented warmth in March.

Of course, up is down, hot is cold, I forgot. They just can’t help themselves.

Ironically, many farmers planted early to try and avoid possible heatwave problems later on in the year. Farming has, and always will be a gamble against the odds.

Previous recent episodes like this happened in 1991, 1997 and 2003. Most recently I remember a very late heavy frost towards the end of April 2017 that took out a lot of vines. These people have very short memories, but that won’t stop them marking it up as yet more proof of “climate change”™.

Frost in April is not rare, and we still use the old medieval dates called the “Saints de Glace” to mark the start of the frost free period, traditionally the 11th,12th and 13th of May in France.

Reply to  Climate believer
April 12, 2021 6:53 am

Same in Germany, the name aswell.

TonyG
Reply to  Climate believer
April 12, 2021 12:20 pm

So they planted early to avoid heatwaves, discounting the possibility of frost in April. I wonder where they got that idea from?

ResourceGuy
April 11, 2021 7:39 pm

Send in La Greta to warm things up.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  ResourceGuy
April 11, 2021 8:12 pm

Too expensive. She has to pay Adult Fare now for travel.

suffolkboy
Reply to  Craig from Oz
April 11, 2021 9:07 pm

And she can legally buy a drink in a Glasgow bar, but won’t.

Paul C
Reply to  suffolkboy
April 12, 2021 2:40 am

She can’t yet, and hopefully will boycott the climate jamboree anyway. Scotland doesn’t open beer gardens until April 26th. From today in England, you can get table service in beer gardens of pubs who choose to open in the snow. I don’t think there will be much demand for ice in drinks when there is still ice on the ground.

PCman999
Reply to  ResourceGuy
April 11, 2021 9:32 pm

She’s not that big, for how long could she possibly burn? Doesn’t seem worth even the bus fare.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  ResourceGuy
April 13, 2021 2:56 pm

She is busy at the moment holding her breathe until she turns blue, in an effort to get other people to forget about self-preservation.

Last edited 1 month ago by Nicholas McGinley
markl
April 11, 2021 7:39 pm

For the moment weather always trumps climate.

ResourceGuy
April 11, 2021 7:40 pm

Welcome to Texas…yall.

Joel O'Bryan
April 11, 2021 7:45 pm

Coming to the Central and Eastern US late next weekend.

11APR2021_6-10day.jpg
John MacDonald
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 11, 2021 7:58 pm

Joel, this is just probability…what’s the value associated. I don’t much care about a 70% probability of 2 degrees below normal.

Joel O’Bryan
Reply to  John MacDonald
April 11, 2021 11:45 pm

More like highs 15 – 20 F below normal. Normal should highs in the high 70’s to low 80’s. Actual highs will be 50’s -60’s F.

Bob Hoye
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 11, 2021 8:02 pm

And Canada with the big blank area has no weather at all!
Bob, in Vancouver.

Shanghai Dan
Reply to  Bob Hoye
April 11, 2021 8:57 pm

It’s because Canada is a fiction – it’s a made up place. I mean, really – who would believe a country of Permafrost, with a GDP made of 50% oil and 50% maple syrup, where donuts and poutine are the national foods, and they run around and say “eh” every other word.

It’s like Loompa Land. A fiction.

bonbon
Reply to  Shanghai Dan
April 12, 2021 1:20 am

See Edgar Poe : Melonta Tauta, a report from the airship Skylark over the empire of Kanadaw about the the ancient Amriccans :
the ancient Amriccans governed themselves!- did ever anybody hear of such an absurdity?- that they existed in a sort of every-man-for-himself confederacy, after the fashion of the “prairie dogs” that we read of in fable. He says that they started with the queerest idea conceivable, viz: that all men are born free and equal- this in the very teeth of the laws of gradation so visibly impressed upon all things both in the moral and physical universe. Every man “voted,” as they called it- that is to say meddled with public affairs- until at length, it was discovered that what is everybody’s business is nobody’s, and that the “Republic” (so the absurd thing was called) was without a government at all.

fred250
Reply to  Bob Hoye
April 11, 2021 9:27 pm

Canada should be PRAYING for some global warming !!

That’s what makes it governments actions so HILARIOUS !! 🙂

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  fred250
April 12, 2021 3:25 am

Russia is more enlightened- it’s praying that Siberia will warm up.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  fred250
April 12, 2021 11:41 am

Its why we have a progressively more stupid govt.

Because stupid.

Same thing as saying “Trudeau”, is just shorthand

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 11, 2021 8:20 pm

If those predictions were 100% right then you know all you would hear about is how “hot” it is on the west coast.

ResourceGuy
April 11, 2021 7:50 pm

Damned that CO2!!

This is what happens with univariate models and consensus around them.

ResourceGuy
April 11, 2021 7:55 pm

Will they now tap the Paris Climate Agreement fund now?

Uncle Joe may have some cash payments for you too.

Jeremiah Puckett
April 11, 2021 8:00 pm

I still can’t understand the fear of warming. It’s a lot easier to live on a warmer planet than a colder one. It’s a lot easier to grow food on a warmer planet than a cold one. We are not seeing more tornadoes. We are not seeing more hurricanes. We are not seeing rising sea levels. Flooding can be controlled. Drought can be controlled. Israel desalinates sea water. Why can’t California?

Abolition Man
Reply to  Jeremiah Puckett
April 11, 2021 8:36 pm

Jeremiah,
It was never about fear of warming; it was about instilling fear of imaginary catastrophes in the ignorant and weakminded! The elites want unfettered control over the masses, and abundant fuel and energy provides too much freedom, mobility AND prosperity; something they feel is proper only for themselves!
They’ve known all along that the slight warming that is occurring due to natural cycles will make life even easier, with higher crop yields and expanding temperate zones. Feudalism 2.0 requires a more ignorant and docile population; and between wrecking the public education system, and bringing in an unending string of “deadly” viruses they are well on their way to the corporate Communist Utopia!
Communist China isn’t so much the enemy as it is the model they want to develop worldwide!

MarkH
Reply to  Jeremiah Puckett
April 11, 2021 9:57 pm

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken

It’s about power. Absolute political power. They want you to be afraid, because people who are afraid don’t sit down and think about things, they react, and they react in ways that can be predicted. It’s a bit like herding sheep I suppose.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  MarkH
April 11, 2021 11:43 pm

Hence, sheeple.

Bruce Ranta
Reply to  Jeremiah Puckett
April 12, 2021 5:19 am

Yesterday on Canada’s Weather Network TV they had a segment on replay about how last year was a record for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. And this year the prediction is for more of the same. A consequence of climate change.

John F Hultquist
April 11, 2021 8:04 pm

The solutions for Americans is to buy wine from grapes grown in central Washington, USA.
Most wine in the State is from central area grapes, but watch the labels. If you don’t know about label laws, then likely you will drink just about anything.

Al Miller
April 11, 2021 8:54 pm

So sick of this cr&*. It’s always news if it’s hot. It never was about climate was it. (Not a question)

suffolkboy
Reply to  Al Miller
April 11, 2021 9:13 pm

It never was about climate; it was always about global wealth redistribution by freezing assets in the ground indefinitely. Similarly The Lockdown was never about a virus; it was all about global wealth redistribution by freezing workers in their homes indefinitely. Both initiatives have been most successful in achieving their aims.

joel
April 11, 2021 9:22 pm

If you look at Ventusky, the reason is clear.
There is a big blocking high over the Atlantic blocking the Westerlies.
There was a big low center just off the coast of Norway.
The counter clockwise low and the clockwise high in tandem just pulled the North cold air over England and France. It looked epic.
BTW, that blocking high is why wind power in England has been low for a week or so. Wind power in the UK was very high during that cold snap,as the north wind poured down over England, though. But, once the low dissipated, the wind power dropped to zilch again.
So, weather is all about which way the wind blows.
Nothing knew.

PCman999
Reply to  joel
April 11, 2021 9:43 pm

What’s the point of studying weather if you can’t do anything about it. If a country deployed say 1000 jets (preferably big bombers or transports) and flew them through a blocking high, or better yet, a hurricane – would it be enough for it to change course, even move it a little?

Disputin
Reply to  PCman999
April 12, 2021 2:11 am

No, not by several orders of magnitude.

fred250
April 11, 2021 9:23 pm

Where does the Lavender colored frost come from ??

PCman999
Reply to  fred250
April 11, 2021 9:44 pm

Camera filter 🙂

fred250
Reply to  PCman999
April 11, 2021 11:36 pm

Thought it might have been another thing caused by AGW !!! 🙂

Purple Frost.

H.R.
Reply to  fred250
April 12, 2021 6:12 am

Aaaaaack! The dreaded Purple Frost!

We must immediately stop using fossil fuels, raise taxes, and form a One World Government.

Rud Istvan
April 11, 2021 9:50 pm

Variable weather IS NOT climate.
Lets not confound the two here as is oft done elsewhere.

tonyb
Editor
Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 12, 2021 12:53 am

Yes, weather is highly variable and can differ wildly day by day let alone year by year

tonyb

B Clarke
Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 12, 2021 2:01 am

Your correct, both sides of cooling ,warming tend to mix climate for weather, what does seem to be a pattern is for a least the last 3 years Europe has seen interruption and damage to the early growing season, farmers plant and plan to known season patterns ,these have been interrupted because of cold, not adverse weather not global warming. This is observed in real time eg this article.

The only group who have been anywhere near a true prediction on climate ,are the GSM people

The warmests we know are obsessive agenda driven zealots their foot soldiers blindley following the agenda like a religion.whos predictions,models have never panned out.

Then we have the people who argue the science who don’t agree with global warming the data says so, for reasons that are impossible to verify ie co2 .

fred250
April 12, 2021 12:10 am

And the UK is having to turn some COAL back on to help GAS and NUCLEAR provide the electricity…

Wind, in the doldrums yet again… UNRELIABLE.

comment image

Climate believer
Reply to  fred250
April 12, 2021 10:29 am

Germany just the same at 8:30 this morning when everything starts being turned on. Coal to the rescue.

All that nameplate wind power and solar supplying sweet fanny adams just when you need it.

German electricity.png
Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Climate believer
April 12, 2021 11:44 am

Just like Texas
And just like in Texas, any shortage is not the fault of renewables

fred250
Reply to  Climate believer
April 12, 2021 11:15 pm

Hi,

I don’t have a link to the page you got that German data from.. could you provide it, pretty please.

Climate believer
Reply to  fred250
April 13, 2021 12:26 am
fred250
Reply to  Climate believer
April 13, 2021 12:13 pm

Thanks, Great that they are showing which countries are contributing to the future biosphere wellbeing of the planet 🙂

griff
April 12, 2021 12:13 am

and?

this isn’t the start of an ice age or even any cooling trend.

fred250
Reply to  griff
April 12, 2021 11:16 pm

Certainly not a sign of “gerbil worming” though, is it,

Poor DESPERATE griff-tard. !

Graemethecat
Reply to  griff
April 13, 2021 4:28 am

Hot weather = evidence for Global Warming. Cold weather = merely weather.

Isn’t that so, Griff?

Right-Handed Shark
April 12, 2021 12:35 am

As I write this, on April 12 2021 at 08:30AM, here in the south of England (about 20 miles SW of London) it is snowing. It’s melting on contact with the ground, but snowing nonetheless. Just wanted to make a note of that here when in January next year they will be claiming that 2021 was the “Hottest year evah!”

tonyb
Editor
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
April 12, 2021 12:52 am

Yesterday here in Torbay we had our first breakfast of the year outdoors. Then the cloud moved in during the afternoon and the sun went and it turned much colder. Today we will be in town outdoors having a meal. Hope they havent gone green and have instead installed some outdoor heaters

tonyb

Graemethecat
Reply to  tonyb
April 12, 2021 1:57 am

I hope you’re well dressed when you go for your meal- indoor dining is still forbidden in the UK, and it’s bl00dy cold down here in North Cornwall!

Rusty
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
April 12, 2021 2:07 am

Had 1/4 of an inch 40 miles west of London which settled mostly on roofs and cars. Unusual, but not rare for this time of year.

marcjf
April 12, 2021 12:38 am

I’m sitting here in France watching it snow. Mind you a few weeks ago we had unseasonably good weather with lots of sunshine. But the freeze thaw sun freeze routine is playing havoc with planting and looks like the grape crop this year will be veruy limited…

bonbon
Reply to  marcjf
April 12, 2021 1:29 am

Check Robert Parker Wine Advocat on 1989 and 1990 Bordeaux. As far as I remember those record wine years (fabulous red wines) had frost in May.

B Clarke
April 12, 2021 1:11 am

Yesterday in Wales it was snowing a little bit unusual for April but what was unusual the snow was falling in a coastal area , today the snow has moved into the cambrians ,the last 3 mornings we have had a frost,,and predicted to last the week.the coastal area yesterday was + 2.5c which is unusual.

Vuk
April 12, 2021 1:59 am

Stratosphere is coldest ever for this time of the year
comment image

Last edited 1 month ago by Vuk
ren
Reply to  Vuk
April 12, 2021 4:01 am

The polar vortex, after a resurgence in late February, is still active.comment image

ren
Reply to  ren
April 12, 2021 4:06 am

During the winter-spring period, the stratosphere and troposphere at latitudes 50-80 N, intermingle.

very old white guy
April 12, 2021 3:02 am

A very simple question. Can they eat or drink money if no food is produced?

Reply to  very old white guy
April 12, 2021 6:58 am

If bread is over, it’s cake time

bonbon
Reply to  very old white guy
April 12, 2021 7:27 am

To paraphrase Marie Antoinette – let then bite Bitcoin.

Paul C
April 12, 2021 3:26 am

While the production from vineyards is likely to be down, it is often the case that small harvests produce good quality wine.
The much bigger problem is that global agricultural production has already been forecast to be impacted by the lockdowns and travel restrictions imposed during the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic. Widespread weather impacts on agriculture in both Europe and North America could add further stress on maintaining the plentiful supply of cheap food we have become used to.
The impact in the western world is likely to be on prices where there are already inflationary pressures from the money supply situation – with governments printing money to pay for their spending on the pandemic. Poorer nations are the ones more likely to suffer if there is widespread disruption to food production. Remember what happened in Ireland when potato blight devastated just the potato crop throughout Europe for just a few years.
We should be ready to push for the re-purposing of lands diverted to growing crops for bio-fuel production back to growing food crops to feed the starving (or at least crops to feed the food).

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Paul C
April 12, 2021 5:26 am

The winter wheat crop here in Kansas is doing great! Just the right temps and plenty of ground moisture. If nothing else happens it will be a bumper crop. The Kansas farmer will, once again, help feed the world.

Paul C
Reply to  Tim Gorman
April 12, 2021 7:07 am

The more labour-intensive crops such as fruit and vegetables which often rely on migrant workers for harvesting are the ones apparently suffering most from COVID restrictions. They also tend to be the most vulnerable to cold (bad) weather events. The crops which rely on fossil fuel powered machinery for planting and harvesting may be more stable. However, in areas such as the UK with a relatively short growing season, a delay in spring can feed through to a delayed harvest in wet autumnal weather. Just be aware that in a relatively free market, price volatility can be an early indicator of impending shortage. I think we are currently ok, but becoming more vulnerable to any other major events impacting food supply.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Paul C
April 12, 2021 7:39 am

Veggies like potato, cauliflower, broccoli, and lettuce are amazingly cold tolerant. I give you my garden as an example. Planted in mid-March and still going strong after even 29F temps on two separate nights, one of which we had light snow (less than 1/4″). My mulberry trees are still doing fine as well. My tomato plants got burned off and I had to replant them. But I expected that, they are *not* cold tolerant.

Yes, harvesting many veggies today is labor intensive. But there are several automated harvesters being developed for both cauliflower and broccoli. The shortage of migrant workers has provided a significant boost to these efforts. In addition, several seed companies are already developing plants more suited to automated harvesting. That’s already been done for broccoli and cauliflower. Bulk lettuce (e.g. for use in prepackaged lettuce) is already using automated harvesting.

It’s all part and parcel of farmers providing more food every year in the face of continued forecasts of doom by the CAGW crowd.

Rod Evans
April 12, 2021 4:39 am

A brass monkey refused to comment, he simply lacked the balls to say anything….
It’s getting cold out there.

Bruce Cobb
April 12, 2021 5:13 am

Meanwhile here in New Hampshire, Spring weather has arrived about 2 weeks earlier than usual. Ice-out on the big lake was declared a week ago (April 5) , while the average date is somewhere around April 23. The Spring Peepers, a clear sign of Spring peeped for the first time a couple evenings ago, which is fairly early for them. But of course, we have had early Springs – even earlier than this one, before. Are Springs earlier now than say 100 years ago? Probably by about 2 weeks I would guess. Is that a “climate disaster”? No. Is man to “blame”? No.

SAMURAI
April 12, 2021 6:22 am

There will be may more cold events like this coming, including brutally cold winters like we had this year.

The Atlantic, Pacific, Southern Ocean and Indian Ocean are all cooling:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

CAGW skeptics have been warning for decades that 30+ years of global cooling were coming when the AMO and PDO approach, then reenter their respective 30-year ocean cool cycles.

Most of the beneficial global warming we’ve enjoyed since 1980 has been from the PDO and AMO ocean warm cycles, while rising CO2 levels have had very little to do with it.

Cooling global temperatures and growing Arctic Sea Ice Extents during the 1945~1978 PDO cool cycle led many “scientists” to pronounce we were heading into a New Ice Age caused by, you guessed it, burning fossil fuels— it’s always man’s fault.

Leftists are so hilarious….

Reply to  SAMURAI
April 13, 2021 7:26 am

Good comments Sam.
Some of the recent cooling events have already been attributed by the usual (warmist) suspects as “cooling caused by global warming”.
The whole purpose of the term “Climate Change” is to create a “Non-falsifiable Hypothesis”, which Karl Popper defined as “unscientific”, aka utter nonsense. Warmer, colder, wetter, drier, windier, calmer, it’s all Climate Change according to the warmist fraudsters, and it’s all caused by fossil fuels – all warmist lies, a deliberate, decades-old scam.
In fact, as you point out, the obvious driver is the oceanic cycles, particularly the PDO, and specifically the NIno34 area SST is a good short-term predictor of global temperatures four months into the future, also impacted by major (century-scale VEI5+) volcanoes.
The Nino34 Sea surface temperatures seem to be strongly influenced by the end of Solar Cycles, particularly weak ones like SC24 – we also saw some significant cooling for a few years at the end of SC23 – that observation allowed me in 2013 to re-calibrate my 2002 prediction of measurable global cooling to start circa 2020, which is now looking pretty good.
Lest anyone thinks this is a good thing, think again. Humanity suffers during cold periods.
Besides, I’m getting old and hate the cold.

Gordon A. Dressler
April 12, 2021 6:29 am

Are there any doubts that this European-wide cold spell was caused by global warming?

Any doubts at all?

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
April 12, 2021 6:59 pm

Me?
I doubt it
I’ll put myself up as a denier target for the scientologists.

Mark Hansford
April 12, 2021 6:34 am

Would it be too much to hope that it snows in Cornwall in June for the G7 conference – that would be much harder to explain away. However as a Brit with the French seemingly hating us over Brexit and Macron spitting feathers at us – I cant say I feel much sympathy

Coach Springer
April 12, 2021 7:21 am

If Europeans are so into the global warming narrative, maybe they should have followed the U.S. example and reduced their carbon emissions instead of all that virtue signaling and finger pointing.

Steve Richards
April 12, 2021 7:23 am

I just didn’t realize that global warming was so serious!!!

April 12, 2021 11:52 am

Waiting for the after the fact prediction that cold is also climate change.

Bindidon
April 12, 2021 11:35 pm

As usual, many commenters here just need a hint on a corner getting somewhat colder somewhere on Earth, and soon do they start claiming we enter some Grrreat Coooling.

Let us take one of the examples cited in the article Charles Rotter refers to, namely Gourdon:

https://tinyurl.com/4bmm7u3f

It has a GHCN daily weather station, with id ‘FRM00007535’. There are no adjustments in this data set, the data for US stations is even rawer there than in the raw USHCN data.

You can download station data form the NOAA server, e.g. using

ftp ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/all/FRM00007535.dly

and process it.

And indeed, the lowest temperature ever recorded by FRM00007535 for April days is on top of the list for the month:

FRM00007535 2021 4 7 -4.8
FRM00007535 1996 4 4 -4.5
FRM00007535 1970 4 3 -4.3
FRM00007535 1984 4 3 -4.1
FRM00007535 1968 4 9 -4.0

But… if this was a hint on cooling, why then are there no hints to 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 etc in the months before April? Here are the top 5 for these months in Gourdon’s station data:

  • for March

FRM00007535 1971 3 7 -12.8
FRM00007535 2005 3 1 -11.7
FRM00007535 1971 3 6 -11.5
FRM00007535 1971 3 5 -8.8
FRM00007535 1971 3 8 -8.8

  • for February

FRM00007535 2012 2 9 -14.2
FRM00007535 2012 2 6 -14.1
FRM00007535 1963 2 4 -13.9
FRM00007535 1963 2 5 -13.5
FRM00007535 1963 2 3 -13.4

  • for January

FRM00007535 1985 1 16 -19.0
FRM00007535 1985 1 9 -17.8
FRM00007535 1987 1 17 -17.8
FRM00007535 1987 1 18 -17.0
FRM00007535 1967 1 10 -14.4

Last not least: here are the ten lowest departures from the monthly means of the period 1981-2010:

2012 2 -6.80
1985 1 -5.62
1974 10 -5.22
1987 1 -5.19
1971 3 -4.56
1963 2 -4.49
1985 11 -4.47
1963 1 -4.22
1972 6 -4.02
2001 12 -3.98

I can only tell you that we are here way, way away from any cooling in Gourdon:

comment image

The trend for the station data there since 1961 is 0.34 ± 0.04 °C / decade; and that for the years since 2010 I prefer not to publish.

I think I would come to similar results when looking at the data of the other places mentioned by the French News and Views website.

J.-P. D.

Reply to  Bindidon
April 13, 2021 3:17 am

Planting was one month late due to cold and wet in 2018 and 2019 across the Great Plains of North America. In 2018 the summer/fall was warm and the crops recovered. In summer 2019 there was a huge crop failure across the Great Plains, extending from the Great Lakes to the Rocky Mountains and as far South as the Texas north border.
The polar vortex goes where it goes – it can only be predicted days/weeks in advance.
We published a paper about the 2019 cold event:
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED October 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
In 2002 we published that cooling would start circa 2020 – that was one year before Theodor Landscheidt‘s famous 2003 global cooling paper. You better hope we’re both wrong.

Bindidon
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
April 13, 2021 9:18 am

Mr MacRae

1) You are always telling us how the Globe is in front of a major Cooling, but… many of your examples in fact are restricted to the Canadian Prairies and their continuation into CONUS.

Moreover, you seemed to have restricted your Prairie analysis to growth periods. A temperature chart for 1900-2021, based on the data of over 400 GHCN daily stations (a restricted set excluding as many UHI-suspected sites as possible) looks like this:

comment image

We will see how much cooling appears during the next years.

What remains however is that while CONUS’ statistics for the number of daily maxima per station per year looks decreases over the years since decades, as as been shown by John Christy, the contrary happens worldwide, as I have shown in a comment below your guest post dated October 27, 2019.

2) In this 2019 guest post, you furthermore insisted on the fact that the incoming solar cycle SC 25 would be very low compared with its predecessors; though there was newer material clearly contradicting you, you nonetheless posted – from both NASA and Leif Svalgaard – information already outdated in 2019.

Here is his somewhat more recent opinion about SC 25:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.02370

And when I look at a comparison of the first years of SC 24 vs. SC 25:

comment image

I prefer to say: Wait and see.

J.-P. D.

ren
Reply to  Bindidon
April 13, 2021 11:15 am

There is a strong decrease in UV radiation due to the lack of active sunspots.comment image

Bindidon
Reply to  ren
April 13, 2021 1:30 pm

ren

You have shown that stuff elsewhere already, and I repeat here: what you show in one little face of the whole.

J.-P. D.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Bindidon
April 13, 2021 3:38 pm

What remains however is that while CONUS’ statistics for the number of daily maxima per station per year looks decreases over the years since decades, as as been shown by John Christy, the contrary happens worldwide, as I have shown in a comment below your guest post dated October 27, 2019.”

It can’t be GLOBAL WARMING if the entire globe is not warming. It just becomes regional warming.

Bindidon
Reply to  Tim Gorman
April 14, 2021 8:44 am

” It can’t be GLOBAL WARMING if the entire globe is not warming. It just becomes regional warming. ”

Typical stuff written by a person who probably never processed any temperature data worldwide, but perfectly knows everything better about it than those who did such work.

It seems to me that, like many Pseudoskeptics, you deny the accuracy of averaging processes used everywhere in the industry by engineers.

a) CONUS: regional lack of warming

comment image

b) Globe: sum of regional warming

comment image

Any ten year old child understands that the trend visible on the graph would be flat if the increase of daily maxima per station per year was restricted to a few regions.

I this discussion was worth the extra two hours needed to produce a global graphical grid trend map corresponding to the data out of which the daily maxima chart was constructed, I would do it.

But I had to learn that persons like you, Mr Gorman, are always right.

J.-P. D.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Bindidon
April 14, 2021 2:51 pm

Typical stuff written by a person who probably never processed any temperature data worldwide, but perfectly knows everything better about it than those who did such work.”

Pure malarky. You avoided answering the question!! Why is that? You don’t *have* an answer?

“t seems to me that, like many Pseudoskeptics, you deny the accuracy of averaging processes used everywhere in the industry by engineers.”

What accuracy? You mean the *assumption* that uncertainty *decreases* when you average? That it cancels when you combine averages?

Engineers don’t combine individual, uncorrelated, measurements of different things into an average and assume that the uncertainty doesn’t grow!

Your graph is a perfect example. No uncertainty analysis associated with it at all. When you average 100 stations measuring different things at different times the uncertainty grows by a factor of TEN! That’s +/- 5C for a typical station or an interval of 10C. Your second graph goes from about eight to 23. If you have averaged 1000 stations the uncertainty becomes +/- 30C or an interval of 60C!

In other words depending on how many stations you have averaged you can’t tell *what* the actual trend is. It could be ANYTHING! The uncertainty overwhelms what you are trying to discrn.

Now, prove John Taylor and Phillip Bevington wrong in how they teach to analyze uncertainty!

Bindidon
Reply to  Tim Gorman
April 23, 2021 9:00 am

Gorman

I’m probably losing valuable time here, but leaving such a condescending, almost arrogant-looking reply without answering again: that was never a good idea. I hope the comments on this thread won’t be closed before I finish answering.

*
You did not understand anything of what I made, and hence wrote a completely redundant answer to my comment.

*
The origin of the two graphs I presented above is this one:

comment image

which was made by UAH’s Prof. John Christy out of USHCN station data, and published on Dr. Spencer’s blog some years ago.

His intention was, as is clearly visible, to show that for CONUS, the repartition of the number of daily maxima between 1895 and now, reported by over 1,000 stations, should be a hint on ‘no warming’, as the years with the highest number of daily maxima per station were in the 1930’s, and decreased since then.

As somebody asked on the blog for a worldwide extension, I first made a graph very similar to Prof. Christy’s, this time out of a considerably higher number of CONUS stations (over 18,000) present within the GHCN daily station set.

*
It is evident to me that a person with the experience of Prof. Christy would have been wondering a bit about a global extension of graph (1), should it look like this graph (3):

comment image

because of a lack of correlation between global temperatures and these global maxima per year.

How can a graph (3) look so fundamentally different from graph (2), though both were based on exactly the same set of worldwide stations?

*
A simple confirmation that something goes wrong here is to extract all CONUS stations out of the global set, and to generate the corresponding maxima, as is visible in this graph (4):

comment image

Anybody having some experience in the time series processing of station data now understands the need to perform, as I did, area weighting in order to avoid a bias due to the overhead of CONUS stations within the worldwide set: about 50 % of the set are located within CONUS, though its surface barely exceeds 6 % of the global land surface.

By distributing station data over a grid of reasonable size (I chose UAHs 2.5 degrees), this extreme imbalance is eliminated: Instead of the previous competition between 18,000 CONUS stations and 18,000 outside of it, 2,000 grid cells outside of CONUS are now competing with 200 cells inside from CONUS.

Now, a sound correlation between land surfaces and station weights exists.

And this – nothing else – explains why graph (2) is as it is. The difference between graph (2) and graph (4) in turn is explained by the fact that there are, outside of CONUS, still many corners whose station overhead distorts the reality.

*
I wouldn’t wonder if you would have had, silently, 100 % opined to graph (3), as it would have confirmed the (wrong) assumption that the Globe looks much like CONUS. It doesn’t, at all.

Near the end, you wrote:

” In other words depending on how many stations you have averaged you can’t tell *what* the actual trend is. It could be ANYTHING! The uncertainty overwhelms what you are trying to disc[e]rn. ”

I am 100% sure that, if John Christy in person had presented the two graphs of my preceding comment, you, Mr Gorman, wouldn’t even have dared to comment his job in the same way as you did concerning mine.

*
I conclude. You wrote:

” Now, prove John Taylor and Phillip Bevington wrong in how they teach to analyze uncertainty! ”

That is the typical behavior of those I like to name the Pseudoskeptics, i.e. the people always saying: “I think you are wrong. Prove me wrong!” instead of proving me wrong.

No, Mr Gorman. That’s not the right way.

The right way is
– to design, implement, validate and verify a software processing daily temperature data, taking uncertainty into consideration – in a professional, acknowledged manner;
– to download some data (e.g. GHCN daily, now 40,000 stations measuring temperature);
– to generate the time series as I did;
– to compare the results.

Feel free to knock at my door when you completed the job!
cu

J.-P. D.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Bindidon
April 23, 2021 12:12 pm

You simply aren’t listening. I’m not surprised.

“I am 100% sure that, if John Christy in person had presented the two graphs of my preceding comment, you, Mr Gorman, wouldn’t even have dared to comment his job in the same way as you did concerning mine.”

Of course I would say exactly the same thing. It doesn’t matter who jams so many independent measurements of different things together the uncertainty remains and I will tell *anyone* that!

Let me repeat: “ In other words depending on how many stations you have averaged you can’t tell *what* the actual trend is. It could be ANYTHING! The uncertainty overwhelms what you are trying to disc[e]rn. ”

You apparently don’t even know who Richard Taylor and Phillip Bevington are. They have nothing to do with climate or being climate deniers. They are professors (Taylor is a physicist) who have written treatises on how to analyze uncertainty.

You can’t write software that can overcome the uncertainty associated with jamming data from independent stations measuring different things into an analysis.

The more independent stations with measurements of different thing that you jam into the data set the larger the uncertainty becomes.

In general, if you have a series of independent measurements, designated by “n”, with a common uncertainty interval then the total uncertainty of the sum of the “n” data points will be
[latex] \delta q = \sqrt (n * \delta ^2) = \delta * \sqrt(n)[/latex]

You can argue with this all you want – you still won’t be able to refute the math.

Bindidon
Reply to  Tim Gorman
April 23, 2021 9:14 am

Gorman (suite & fin)

I forgot a last detail in the previous comment: a graph showing the temporal average of the GHCN daily station distribution over a 2.5 degree grid:

comment image

No explanation needed, I guess 🙂

J.-P. D.

fred250
Reply to  Bindidon
April 13, 2021 12:10 pm

VERY obvious that the slight warming happened around the 1998 El Nino and at the 2015 El Nino

Thanks for verifying that there is ZERO HUMAN CAUSATION in the slight NATURAL warming in this location.

Bindidon
Reply to  fred250
April 13, 2021 1:29 pm

fred250

Maybe one day you ankle biter begin to understand that not everybody writing here is interested in putting human causation in front of everything, let alone the ‘slight natural’ causes.

You are so terribly boring.

J.-P. D.

Bindidon
April 13, 2021 1:26 pm

A further check of French station data (a bit over 70 of them) confirmed my opinion: this April 2021 stuff is a nice storytelling, but it has much more to do with perfect vineyard lobbyism than with any imminent cooling.

Simply because such April cooling occurred many times before. The only two exceptions with April 2021 we find near the top of the list came from stations located at altitudes of 1500 resp. 800 m.

10% of the top 10,000 records are from years belonging to the last decade.

Cooling? What cooling?

Coolistas should keep focusing on the places promising them more success than France, e.g. … CONUS 🙂

J.-P. D.

Reply to  Bindidon
April 13, 2021 4:44 pm

Sorry Bindi, but your arguments make no sense to me.

Bindidon
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
April 14, 2021 8:45 am

Oh Noes!

That you did not need to write, Sir.

J.-P. D.

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