New study ties solar variability to the onset of decadal La Nina events

Authors apply a 22-year solar clock to find an elusive correlation


Research News

A new study shows a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, suggesting that solar variability can drive seasonal weather variability on Earth.

If the connection outlined in the journal Earth and Space Science holds up, it could significantly improve the predictability of the largest El Nino and La Nina events, which have a number of seasonal climate effects over land. For example, the southern United States tends to be warmer and drier during a La Nina, while the northern U.S. tends to be colder and wetter.

“Energy from the Sun is the major driver of our entire Earth system and makes life on Earth possible,” said Scott McIntosh, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and co-author of the paper. “Even so, the scientific community has been unclear on the role that solar variability plays in influencing weather and climate events here on Earth. This study shows there’s reason to believe it absolutely does and why the connection may have been missed in the past.”

The study was led by Robert Leamon at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County, and it is also co-authored by Daniel Marsh at NCAR. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s sponsor, and the NASA Living With a Star program.

Applying a new solar clock

The appearance (and disappearance) of spots on the Sun — the outwardly visible signs of solar variability — have been observed by humans for hundreds of years. The waxing and waning of the number of sunspots takes place over approximately 11-year cycles, but these cycles do not have distinct beginnings and endings. This fuzziness in the length of any particular cycle has made it challenging for scientists to match up the 11-year cycle with changes happening on Earth.

In the new study, the researchers rely on a more precise 22-year “clock” for solar activity derived from the Sun’s magnetic polarity cycle, which they outlined as a more regular alternative to the 11-year solar cycle in several companion studies published recently in peer-reviewed journals.

The 22-year cycle begins when oppositely charged magnetic bands that wrap the Sun appear near the star’s polar latitudes, according to their recent studies. Over the cycle, these bands migrate toward the equator — causing sunspots to appear as they travel across the mid-latitudes. The cycle ends when the bands meet in the middle, mutually annihilating one another in what the research team calls a terminator event. These terminators provide precise guideposts for the end of one cycle and the beginning of the next.

The researchers imposed these terminator events over sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific stretching back to 1960. They found that the five terminator events that occurred between that time and 2010-11 all coincided with a flip from an El Nino (when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average) to a La Nina (when the sea surface temperatures are cooler than average). The end of the most recent solar cycle — which is unfolding now — is also coinciding with the beginning of a La Nina event.

“We are not the first scientists to study how solar variability may drive changes to the Earth system,” Leamon said. “But we are the first to apply the 22-year solar clock. The result — five consecutive terminators lining up with a switch in the El Nino oscillation — is not likely to be a coincidence.”

In fact, the researchers did a number of statistical analyses to determine the likelihood that the correlation was just a fluke. They found there was only a 1 in 5,000 chance or less (depending on the statistical test) that all five terminator events included in the study would randomly coincide with the flip in ocean temperatures. Now that a sixth terminator event — and the corresponding start of a new solar cycle in 2020 — has also coincided with an La Nina event, the chance of a random occurrence is even more remote, the authors said.

The paper does not delve into what physical connection between the Sun and Earth could be responsible for the correlation, but the authors note that there are several possibilities that warrant further study, including the influence of the Sun’s magnetic field on the amount of cosmic rays that escape into the solar system and ultimately bombard Earth. However, a robust physical link between cosmic rays variations and climate has yet to be determined.

“If further research can establish that there is a physical connection and that changes on the Sun are truly causing variability in the oceans, then we may be able to improve our ability to predict El Nino and La Nina events,” McIntosh said.


About the article:

Title: Termination of Solar Cycle and Correlated Tropospheric Variability
Authors: Robert J. Leamon, Scott W. McIntosh, and Daniel R. Marsh
Journal: Earth and Space Science DOI: 10.1029/2020EA001223

This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

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Clyde Spencer
April 5, 2021 6:08 pm

Alright, Willis. Here’s your invitation.

Dave Yaussy
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
April 5, 2021 6:32 pm

You beat me to it, Clyde. I’ll be convinced if it survives Willis’s scrutiny

John Tillman
April 5, 2021 6:11 pm

Solar cycles drive ENSO. Well, duh!

Using the 22-year cycle, with hard, physical change indicator, however is noteworthy, rather than more fungible 11-year quasi-cycle.

Dennis G Sandberg
Reply to  John Tillman
April 5, 2021 7:45 pm

this is news? I thought I heard that in physical geography about 50 years ago.

Reply to  John Tillman
April 5, 2021 7:51 pm

They make it sound like terminator events are well defined and uncontroversial. There seems to be more ambiguity about El Ninos and La Ninas. As far as I can tell, all the definitions of those events require that they last a certain amount of time.

Ever since the time of Herschel, people have been trying to tie sunspots to the climate. As far as I can tell, that has resulted in approximately zero successful predictions.

If these termination events can be shown to reliably correspond with a decrease in sea surface temperature, that is a big deal. On the other hand, on closer examination, the effect could just evaporate.

This study could upset some apple carts. For that reason I’m guessing that it will be carefully scrutinized by those with various dogs in various races.

Reply to  commieBob
April 6, 2021 4:27 am

As far as I can tell, that has resulted in approximately zero successful predictions.

On global scale, that seems to be right, not so sure on local scale.

April 5, 2021 6:12 pm

Nah it’s all about volcanos…:)

Reply to  Mike
April 5, 2021 7:04 pm

Mike, see my response to Burl, below.


Reply to  Bob Tisdale
April 5, 2021 10:44 pm

I was being sarcastic and pre-empting Mr Burl

Reply to  Mike
April 6, 2021 6:27 am

You’re correct to be sarcastic. Burl should stick to folk/children’s music.

ht/ Burl Ives

Last edited 1 year ago by beng135
Burl Henry
Reply to  Mike
April 6, 2021 7:10 am

Rats! I thought that there was at least one unbiased mind on this site.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Burl Henry
April 6, 2021 9:50 am

Just because someone disagrees with you does not prove that they are biased. A truly open mind would entertain the possibility that it is you who is biased.

Burl Henry
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
April 6, 2021 7:03 pm

Clyde Spencer

Have you considered that I may be correct? Or are biased?

Burl Henry
Reply to  Burl Henry
April 6, 2021 7:04 pm

I meant to say Or are you biased.

Burl Henry
April 5, 2021 6:31 pm


With very few exceptions, a La Nina is preceded by a VEI4 or larger volcanic eruption. Check it out.

Reply to  Burl Henry
April 5, 2021 7:03 pm

Burl, wasn’t that a hypothesis proposed by Michael Mann?


Burl Henry
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
April 6, 2021 6:51 am


I have no idea, but if he did, at least he got that right.

You do need to view my article “A Graphical Explanation of Climate Change”

The only thing that our climate responds to is changing levels of SO2 aerosols in the atmosphere.

Reply to  Burl Henry
April 6, 2021 11:50 am

You dishonest people keep popping up here.You obviously don’t know what you are talking about.It’s like you all are on a list,and one drops off and the next one takes over.

Reply to  Burl Henry
April 5, 2021 7:42 pm

A La Nina is preceded by sunspots in the northern hemisphere of the sun. This is an excellent time to pay attention to this as the solar minimum gradually comes to an end. SDO currently shows that a northern sunspot will come into view in the next several days. Watch how temps in the 3.4 region will start dropping when that sunspot appears just as they have done over the last several months since the beginning of the year, and for the entire record of the MEI versus the sunspot record.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Burl Henry
April 6, 2021 10:06 am


However, those “very few exceptions” can be very important. You might be engaging in cherry picking.

Have you read this:

Burl Henry
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
April 6, 2021 8:27 pm

Clyde Spencer:

The exceptions are as follows:

  1. If there is a gap of ~ 3 years or more between VEI4 or higher eruptions, temperatures will rise enough to form an El Nino, because all of the circulating volcanic SO2 aerosols in the atmosphere have settled out, even if there are also industrial SO2 aerosols in the atmosphere. For example, there were no eruptions between May 1937 and May 1943, which caused the 1939-1943 El Nino years…
  2. If Industrial aerosols are reduced enough by global Clean Air efforts, an El Nino will form. This was the cause of both the 1997-98 and the 2015-16 super El Ninos.

No cherry picking–just subtle causes.

Reply to  Burl Henry
April 6, 2021 5:38 pm

Don’t those exceptions indicate whatever correlation may exist is likely not causational?

Burl Henry
Reply to  BrianB
April 6, 2021 8:29 pm


See above.reply to Clyde Spencer.

Abolition Man
April 5, 2021 6:50 pm

Could GCR flux be affecting cloud formation enough to link solar cycles to ENSO? It’s only one of the many intriguing questions this study raises! I look forward to learning more as the wizards of WUWT put their knowledge and skills to work!

Reply to  Abolition Man
April 6, 2021 9:19 am

Also, if the link holds up, what happens during periods of prolonged solar minimums? (Sporer, Maunder, Dalton, etc) Does the ENSO phenomenon cease? If so, the current era that we are in is not a climate normal but one state of a binary system.

This work has huge implications if true, as it could challenge a lot of assumptions and answer a lot of questions. IMHO

Last edited 1 year ago by Anon
April 5, 2021 7:01 pm

I’ve studied ENSO, i.e. the physical processes that create El Nino and La Nina events, and explained them in relatively easy-to-understand terms, as you may recall. The ENSO record goes well earlier than the 1960s, though before the 1950s, the record is questionable.

So why start their study in the 1960s? Even if the ENSO record is questionable before the 1950s, how does their hypothesis perform during those earlier times?


Burl Henry
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
April 7, 2021 6:25 am

Bob:I am not aware of your study. Could you provide a link.

April 5, 2021 7:09 pm

They are just now finding this? Sheesh

Somebody better tell them there are back to back low cycles in the record and more than two as long as we are doing remedial work.

April 5, 2021 7:36 pm

I don’t mind being educated, so I have a couple of questions:

 For example, the southern United States tends to be warmer and drier during a La Nina, while the northern U.S. tends to be colder and wetter.

Why would anywhere be wetter (especially around where I live in the SF Bay Area)?

Also, does this negate any GCR theory, for example anisotropy of cosmic ray flux and cloud formation?

Reply to  philincalifornia
April 6, 2021 9:33 am

Hi Phil,

You might find this interesting/helpful:ño–Southern_Oscillation#On_precipitation

And for a more “hands-on” experience I suggest:,-124.048,3

There you can see all of the Trade Wind patterns across the globe. If you keep an eye on this site, as we go into an El Nino, it is amazing, as you will see many of the trade wind patterns you are accustomed to actually reverse.

If you are a visual learner type person, I think it is a great way to see/experience all types of macroscopic weather behavior in addition to ENSO, like the seasonal Indian and African Monsoons, etc.

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Anon
April 6, 2021 11:02 am

G’day Anon,

… visual learner …” Spot on.

I’m keeping an eye on the winds (earth.nullschool) in the north-west quadrant of the Indian Ocean. When the first Portuguese sailors rounded the Cape of Good Hope and sailed up the east coast of Africa they ran into Indian and Indonesian traders. They learned that the winds reversed direction during the year – which meant they were not tacking to windward for any part of their journey. The Europeans now had an ocean route for trade with the East.

Since about the recent equinox I’ve noticed that the north-east trades no longer dominate that stretch of ocean.

Ulric Lyons
April 5, 2021 8:19 pm

El Nino episodes soon after sunspot minimum are more reliable and have already been noted. The La Nina conditions for the terminators of cycles 19 and 20 were not very strong, not even official La Nina episodes:

Reply to  Ulric Lyons
April 6, 2021 6:32 am

Since ENSO cycles are so frequent, you’re pretty much always going to have an El Nino episode “soon” after a sunspot minimum.

Last edited 1 year ago by beng135
Ulric Lyons
Reply to  beng135
April 6, 2021 2:49 pm

Less than 50% chance. They occur there because of lows in the solar wind speed.

Joel O'Bryan
April 5, 2021 8:30 pm

Well since 1960, 61 years obviously has passed. There has been slightly less than 3 (x 22 year) Hale cycles, no matter how one slices it up. They claim you have to use Hale cycles to see the effect on ENSO.
“In the new study, the researchers rely on a more precise 22-year “clock” for solar activity derived from the Sun’s magnetic polarity cycle,”

But then they switch it up to use Schwab 11 yr cycles and use the 5 “terminator events” between 1960 and 2011 for their findings to get the effect.

When I line up the NOAA ENSO ONI index values by La Nina,

with the Solar cycle sunspot record from 1950 to today, or alternatively with Solar flux F10.7 record from 2005 to present, here:

I get nothing that looks like a correlation. It simply works when it does and you have to conveniently ignore when it doesn’t work. Look at the 1999-2001 strong La Nina conditions that coincided with SC23 2000-2001 solar cycle maximum. No match to their claim.

Last edited 1 year ago by Joel O’Bryan
John Tillman
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 5, 2021 8:42 pm

More sunshine on the tropical Pacific produces more Los Niños. Less sunshine makes for more Las Niñas. Pretty simple, really.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  John Tillman
April 5, 2021 8:51 pm

If it was that simple, smart folks (who have looked) would have figured it out before now using essentially the same data as these investigators.

If it was “simple,” then ENSO would follow an 11/22 yr pattern if SC was pacing the La Nina recharge of tropical Pacific OHC. No one has been able to find such a pattern that holds up to longer term scrutiny as NOAA’s ONI index goes back to 1950 and the SC record obviously much longer than that.

Don’t get me wrong. I think there is evidence that its the sun and internal cycles wot done it, the warming since 1980. But this study is not convincing to me. I see a La Nina in 2000-2001 that coincided with SC23 Max and thus got an extra helping of OHC boost, and thus Trenberth’s “step up” in the surface temp records. I think with the current La Nina coinciding with SC24/25 minimum and SC25 slow to rise, we may see a step down in the GMST record in a few years..

Last edited 1 year ago by Joel O’Bryan
John Tillman
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 5, 2021 8:58 pm

Super Niños and Niñas fit remarkably well.

As the Team likes to say, “It’s just physics”. In this case of reality, rather than GIGO models, it is just physics.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 6, 2021 12:26 pm

I believe that global warming alarmism has been a deliberately-fabricated false crisis since its inception many decades ago – it is false propaganda fabricated by scoundrels for political and financial gain – scary stories concocted by wolves to stampede the sheep.
My recent paper is published at the link below. It attacks the false climate science of the global warming hysterics, and their dismal record of ~79 failed very-scary predictions of CO2-caused runaway global warming. The warmists’ predictive track record is 100% false to date – they have perfect negative credibility. Nobody should believe them – about anything.
The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence. In 2002 we predicted global cooling to start circa 2020, and the data continues to support our prediction (which was published one year before Theodor Landscheidt’s famous 2003 cooling prediction).
Global Lower Troposphere Temperatures have declined 0.6C in 13 months, from an anomaly of +0.59C in February 2021 to only -0.01C in March 2021. We’ll see where temperature trends from this point forward.
I also attack the Covid-19 lockdown, which looks more and more like another deliberate scam. There is now no question that the lockdown has caused many times more harm than good, as Willis E and I independently published over one year ago, on 21March 2020. My latest paper, soon to be published, proves that there were NO significant excess deaths up to 30June2020 in both Alberta and Canada – the last seven years of total deaths were all “on trend” with no “death bump” from Covid-19 up to mid-2020 – further evidence that there was no rational justification for the Covid-19 lockdown.
The linkage of these two scams by the usual suspects confirms the fraud – prominent leftists all over the world made the same absurd claim, “To solve Covid-19 we must solve Global Warming!”, a concept not even logical enough to be specious.
Further confirmation of the fraud is their “final solution”, the “Great Reset”, a totalitarian global political system similar to that of the Chinese Communist Party, with a few wealthy Princes at the top looking down on all the poor slaves below.
The Climate-and-Covid fraudsters are relying upon the remarkable stupidity of the average person – and as George Carlin said, “Half of them are stupider than that!”
Best, Allan
By Allan MacRae, March 21, 2021

April 7, 2021 1:31 am

Nice to see this important relationship snapping back into shape after a period of minor delinquency.

April 7, 2021 7:53 am

Allan, your lack of precision is enough to drive even an american mad (😖). Not to worry though — even bartemis was guilty of the same malady. It seems that you’ve (we all’ve) have been waiting a long time for this day. If cooling should persist*, not only is the CO2 causes warming correlation dead, but the emissions drive CO2 growth rate correlation, too. FWIW, ferdinand stated (about 4 years ago) that if temps fall — obviously for an extended period of time — and the CO2 growth rate with it, then he’s willing to concede the point…

relegated to lurker status for a year now, fonzie

*i’m gambling that cooling will not persist. the warm blob off vancouver’s coast doesn’t seem to be going anywhere any time soon. northern hemisphere is still having difficulty cooling off because of it.

Reply to  fonzie
April 7, 2021 11:48 am

Great to hear from you fonz. I hope you are correct and I am wrong – humanity suffers during cold periods.
Also, I’m getting old and hate the cold.
Best regards, Allan

However, here is my first major conclusion from my above paper:

CONCLUSION: Dangerous global cooling will continue, it will be sporadic, moving from continent to continent with the polar vortex, and could last for decades.

April 12, 2021 8:57 am

Typo correction:
Global Lower Troposphere Temperatures have declined 0.6C in 13 months, from an anomaly of +0.59C in February 2020 to only -0.01C in March 2021.

Update: [Told you so, two decades ago – 1Sept2002 Calgary Herald.]

Why don’t you good people listen to your old Uncle Allan, who cares for you and only wants the best for you? The global warming alarmists could not be more wrong – we’ve known that since forever.

Many of you will suffer and some will die if you don’t start to listen to reason and experience, and reject the fraudsters of false CO2-driven global warming. Bundle up!

In 2002, co-authors Dr Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian, Dr Tim Patterson, Paleoclimatologist, Carleton U, Ottawa and Allan MacRae, P.Eng. (now retired), McGill, Queens, U of Alberta, wrote:

1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
Allan MacRae published in the Calgary Herald on September 1, 2002:
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
Allan MacRae modified his global cooling prediction in 2013:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”

John Tillman
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 6, 2021 1:32 pm

I failed to mention the effect of UV variation on ozone, hence trade winds. Still a solar effect, but less simple.

Izaak Walton
April 5, 2021 8:51 pm

I find this a very odd paper. They state that they have five termination events and 13 El Nino to La Nina transitions. So even if 5 La Ninas are caused by the solar cycle that still leaves 8 that weren’t. And they make no mention of the transistions that don’t line up with solar termination effects.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 6, 2021 6:37 am

Interesting. I find you a very odd poster.

John Francis
April 5, 2021 9:15 pm

Still, it never mentions CO2. Wonderful!

April 5, 2021 11:33 pm

“Thus, it is entirely plausible that since changes in the (upper) atmosphere brought on by a strengthened Brewer‐Dobson circulation, weakened Pacific Walker circulation, and less cloudy Western Pacific, enables the relatively constant terminator‐driven changes to have sufficient “impact” to flip the system from El Niño to La Niña, independent of the actual mechanism that couples solar changes to clouds and ENSO.”

Abolition Man
Reply to  ren
April 6, 2021 6:50 am

Is it possible that there is enough inertia in the system that the switch between La Niña and El Niño conditions is like a super emergent phenomenon?
The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool builds up, the Walker Circulation weakens and shifts to the east, and the PDO shifts from negative to positive. The high heat capacity of the Pacific muddles the boundary, while volcanic activity adds another driver into the equation.
The solar cycle could be the primary driver while inertia and stratospheric volcanic particulates serve to counter or exacerbate the current phase of the PDO. The negative phase has more frequent La Ninas, while the positive has more El Niño’s; but there is overlap. It’s almost like there is an occasional harmonic that takes some time to dampen out!

Last edited 1 year ago by abolition man
Reply to  Abolition Man
April 6, 2021 7:42 am

Yes, when the magnetic activity of the solar wind decreases there is stagnation. El Niño conditions are preferred, leading to heat loss in the oceans on a timescale of decades. In this situation, an increase in solar activity at the beginning of the solar cycle will initiate La Niña.

April 5, 2021 11:48 pm

Let’s turn our attention to the solar equatorial dipole. After an initial increase, you can see another decrease in the strength of this dipole. I predict that this leads to a double La Niña peak, similar to what happened in 2012. image

April 6, 2021 2:52 am

The reason were all here isn’t because of the sun, its because of what’s going on beneath our feet. The electric dynamo generates a electromagnetic field that protects us by deflecting the solar wind around Earth, if it didn’t we would look like our to closest planets Venus and Mars.
“The diurnal and seasonal variabilities of the electric field are shown at the ENSO timescale. Major differences are visible between the El Niño electric field and the La Niña electric field, especially during the Austral summer months. The time from 16 to 22 UTC and January through April has an enhanced electric field in the La Niña years. This gives supporting evidence that natural variation in the Earth’s climate can also be observed in the measured electric field.”
Relationship between the global electric circuit and electrified cloud parameters at diurnal, seasonal, and interannual timescales – Lavigne – 2017 – Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres – Wiley Online Library

Last edited 1 year ago by jmorpuss
April 6, 2021 3:47 am

Southern Oscillation Index correlates to the equatorial tectonic activity. Lack of correlation in 1960’s may be due to excessive Pacific ocean nuclear testing (needs updating)

Reply to  Vuk
April 6, 2021 3:49 am

there is a further year on year correlation of the multi-variant ENSO

Reply to  Vuk
April 6, 2021 2:14 pm

Abstract from Lightning and Electrical Activity during the 2006 Eruption of Augustine Volcano

Lightning and other electrical activity were measured during the 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano. We found two phases of the activity, the explosive phase corresponding to the explosive eruptions and the plume phase. We classified the lightning into three types, vent discharges, near-vent lightning, and plume lightning. Vent discharges are small, 10 to 100 m sparks, that occur at rate as great as 10,000 s-1 at the mouth of the volcano during the energetic explosive eruptions. The vent discharges were observed six different times.

Near-vent lightning appears to develop upward from the volcanic cone into the developing column during explosions. This lightning is small, in the range of 1 to 7 km, and short, 0.01 to 0.1 s. The behavior of the near-vent lightning indicates an overall positive charge in the ejecta. The plume lightning resembled intracloud thunderstorm lightning. Often it was branched, spanned more than 10 km, and lasted more than 0.5 s

Lightning and Electrical Activity during the 2006 Eruption of Augustine Volcano (
Tropospheric and Ionospheric Anomalies Induced by Volcanic and Saharan Dust Events as Part of Geosphere Interaction Phenomena

AbstractIn this work, we assessed the possible relation of ionospheric perturbations observed by Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions (DEMETER), Global Positioning System total electron content (GPS TEC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-derived outgoing longwave-Earth radiation (OLR), and atmospheric chemical potential (ACP) measurements, with volcanic and Saharan dust events identified by ground and satellite-based medium infrared/thermal infrared (MIR/TIR) observations.
Geosciences | Free Full-Text | Tropospheric and Ionospheric Anomalies Induced by Volcanic and Saharan Dust Events as Part of Geosphere Interaction Phenomena | HTML (

Reply to  jmorpuss
April 6, 2021 2:38 pm

Kamchatka volcano ‘exploding’ on 22 /12/ 2020 throwing fine ash particles (electrically charged trough friction with gasses-occasionally results in lightning) into lower layers of stratosphere, entered polar vortex few days later, splitting it and under the influence of bifurcated N. Hemispheres magnetic field (Hudson Bay and Central Siberia peaks) resulted in very weak vortex that couldn’t keep polar jet stream into tight zonal circulation allowing meridional excursions taking freezing cold Arctic air as far south as Texas by mid February. see my prediction here image

Last edited 1 year ago by vuk
April 6, 2021 4:33 am

Suspicious Observers mention this paper and says told You so about the 22 Year cycle.:

Loren C. Wilson
April 6, 2021 5:04 am

There are transitions from El Nino to La Nina that do not occur at the same time as the end of the solar cycle. For this hypothesis to survive, they have to provide some explanation of the off-cycle transitions.

Reply to  Loren C. Wilson
April 6, 2021 6:41 am

They covered three Hale cycles, even 3 out of 3 may not be sufficient, Hale cycles can be accurately derived from SCs since 1700, my graph above shows that SOI index data goes back to 1880 (not sure how good it is before 1950), i.e. seven Hale cycles back. Five or at push four out of seven might be credible.

Last edited 1 year ago by vuk
April 6, 2021 5:51 am

Next thing they’ll discover are the Milankovitch cycles.

April 6, 2021 6:39 am

As a professional engineer involved with vibrations for more than a half century, I’m accustomed to “Oscillations” having a frequency that does not vary much from cycle to cycle. Also, as one who huddled through the “Great Texas Cold Spell” in February, the coldest spell for over 120 years, I can appreciate that a ‘tendency’, as in “ the southern United States tends to be warmer and drier during a La Nina” is just a ‘tendency’, and not a prediction.

Nevertheless, calling what in my field would be a “forced response” to be an “oscillation” is quite a stretch. Don’t get me going on the difference between a ‘force’, and a ‘forcing’, either.

Forgoing my attempt at dry humor, it’s obvious to me that many involved in Climate ‘Science’ have a different meaning for some common words that is different from tradition. This always makes communication difficult. No matter how many times ENSO is called an ‘Oscillation’, to me, it is not. Attempts to find periodicity in an ‘oscillation’ that is not periodic, doesn’t strike me as particularly worthwhile, either. I say, don’t give control of the language to those who destroy the language.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Tom
April 6, 2021 7:16 am

… many involved in Climate ‘Science’ have a different meaning for some common words that is different from tradition.

And, it seems that the different meanings are by design, to manipulate the emotions of people, rather than clearly communicate.

Jackie Pratt
April 6, 2021 7:21 am

So if we accept their conclusion the solar cycle is a driver, everyone would agree it is not the only.
Shouldn’t the authors of the research at least mention what the other drivers are, and what weighting might apply?

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