Guest post by Leo Goldstein
The COVID-19 epidemic and the response to it have devastated the economy. However, the alternative energy stock indexes quadrupled on average, including 150% growth before the US elections.
Alt-energy (alternative energy) market performance can be captured in the performance of the leading alt-energy ETFs (exchange traded funds): QCLN, PBW, and TAN. In addition to alt-energy, these ETFs also hold non-energy manufacturing and service companies, critically dependent on climate alarmism. Thus, the assets of any of these ETFs can be used as a financial index, tracking climate alarmism.
After sustaining no growth and moderate losses for five previous years, alt-energy gained an average of 150%, during the first year of COVID-19 (October 25, 2019 to October 30, 2020; see Fig. 1 below). Even more telling, most of these gains happened in the period of draconian and highly politicized lockdowns; see Fig. 2 below.
There is no economic explanation for this steep increase in alt-energy’s valuation. A society under shutdowns or lockdowns consumes less energy and thus, all energy stocks would consequently suffer. Even alt-energy corporations, mainly producing carbon credits, would suffer, because carbon credits are bought mainly by businesses producing or consuming real energy. Additionally, the significant loss of income due to the sudden downturn of the economy would leave little or no funds for anything other than dealing with the current crisis.
One possible explanation for alt-energy’s growth is the expanding political powers of climate alarmism / global governance. Many entities openly celebrated the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity for a power grab, starting with “address[ing] the climate emergency and transition to net zero carbon emissions“. On June 3, 2020, Klaus Schwab, the Head of the World Economic Forum, called for a Great Reset, stating:
“There are many reasons to pursue a Great Reset, but the most urgent is COVID-19.”
“[the pandemic] has shown how quickly we can make radical changes to our lifestyles. Almost instantly, the crisis forced businesses and individuals to abandon practices long claimed to be essential, from frequent air travel to working in an office. Likewise, populations have overwhelmingly shown a willingness to make sacrifices …“
Alt-energy ETFs valuation quadrupled between Oct 25, 2019 (pre-pandemic) and February 12, 2021 (the first date of this writing). Of course, nearly half of these gains happened after the November 3rd elections. Since this is an expected outcome for political rackets, when their party wins, this article only covers the period before the election: Oct 2019 – Oct 2020.
During this period, the S&P 500 index, capturing some of the largest corporations, only grew by 8%. Small businesses are mostly devastated, and employment in the private sector is in shambles. The following charts compare alt-energy with S&P 500.
The blue line represents the S&P 500. The pink, brown, and violet lines represent alt-energy ETFs. The green and red bars at the bottom of the graph are trade volumes, not used. All time periods start and end on Friday. The charts show changes from the first day in the period, in percent.
Chart 1. The first 12 months of COVID-19 globally; Oct 25, 2019 – Oct 30, 2020; weekly
Notice the jump of the alt-energy ETFs in February 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic.
Chart 2. 6 months of irrational shutdowns, May 1, 2020 – Oct 30, 2020; daily
May 1, 2020 to October 30, 2020, was the period of unjustifiable shutdowns and lockdowns. Some states had shutdowns and others had lockdowns, after it was clear that COVID-19 had a low fatality rate, especially among younger people. By this time, COVID-19 treatments and prophylaxis were found and “the curve” had been bent. See the COVID-19 hospitalization rates and the death rates (which are about four weeks behind).
- This article was first drafted before alt-energy failed Texas. The Texas blackouts have shown how dependent we are on reliable electric power supply from the grid. There are almost no local emergency power options. Even gas-powered heating units need electricity to work. In many cases, people lost their internet services (thanks to Obamanet, in part) even before losing power. Most people are totally dependent on the Internet for information, emergency and/or evacuation orders, etc. Many do not even have AM/FM radios. This is a big problem that hopefully states will address.
- It should be noted that before the pandemic, alt-energy ETFs had relatively low beta. Beta values for PBW, TAN, and QCLN were 1.0, 1.2, and 1.5, respectively, measured against S&P 500.
- Big Tech is another economic sector that showed significant gains during the shutdowns and lockdowns. In Big Tech’s case, the causation is well known. Lockdowns forced most business interactions and personal relationships to take place through the Internet, which is dominated by Big Tech. My observation from early June has remained correct – countries suffering under the “rule” of Big Tech (Americas and Europe, excluding Russia and Ukraine) suffered the worst outcomes during COVID-19, especially when adjusted to indoor population densities and healthcare capacities.
- Alt-energy or “clean energy” refers to energy sources other than fossil fuels, nuclear, and large-scale hydro.