Simon Lee, University of Reading
The UK, along with large parts of northern Europe, is in the grip of an unusually cold period of weather thanks to a flow of cold easterly winds from Siberia. On the morning of February 11, the village of Braemar in the Scottish Highlands recorded -23.0°C, the UK’s coldest temperature since 1995 and coldest February temperature since the 1950s.
The cold air outbreak has been dubbed “The Beast from the East Two”, the sequel to another extremely cold spell in late February-early March 2018 (although it should be noted that outbreaks of cold easterly winds have occurred more than twice, and indeed much more severely).
These two cold spells bookend a volatile four years of winter weather. In February 2019, the UK experienced a “winter heatwave” when the temperature reached 21.2°C at Kew Gardens in London. The following year saw the country’s wettest February in a record stretching back to 1862, with winter storms Ciara and Dennis producing some of the rainiest individual days on record.
Extreme cold, a heatwave, a deluge, and another cold snap: the succession of different extremes raises questions about climate variability and climate change.
Why the UK’s weather varies so much
Western Europe is at the mercy of the Atlantic jet stream – a band of westerly winds which steer powerful weather systems, flanked by cold air to its north and warmer air to its south. The jet stream is extremely variable and fluctuations in its strength and position are the main reason why the region can have such varied weather.
In both 2021 and 2018, the jet stream was unusually weak and shifted southward, allowing cold air to flood out of the Arctic. In early 2020, the jet stream was supercharged, keeping colder air locked up and instead pushing in mild, moisture-laden air and storm systems from the Atlantic. In 2019, it buckled northwards, allowing a dome of high pressure to develop over the UK under which the temperature skyrocketed.
These different patterns all fall within natural climate variability. The weakened jet stream in 2018 and this year, as well as the strengthened jet stream in 2020, are all linked to variability in the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex – effectively a vast low-pressure system around 30km above the surface, which fluctuates in strength from year to year.
But we do know that climate change is likely to make winters milder and wetter in the UK, largely because warmer air can hold much more water. This is supported by recent observations: the winters of 2013-14, 2015-16 and 2019-20 all rank in the top five wettest on record. Recent research has shown that climate change has also made exceptionally warm winter days – such the 20°C heatwave in February 2019 – around 300 times more likely, although they remain rare because the specific atmospheric configuration required is so unlikely.
So there is evidence to support climate change having amplified the extreme heat of 2019 and the rain of 2020. But what about cold weather and climate change? It is important to remember that extremely cold weather can still happen in a warming climate. If climate change is like loading a die, then rolling a one is still possible. Just because you roll a one every so often does not tell you that the die is not loaded. For that, you need to look at longer periods of time, to see if you are rolling more sixes and fewer ones.
The Central England Temperature (CET) is the world’s longest-running continuous instrumental temperature record, with data from 1659. It gives a clear indication of how even the coldest winters in recent times pale in comparison with those of the past. A winter with an average temperature below 2°C used to occur about once per decade. Central England has now not had a winter that cold since 1978-79 – a never-before-observed gap of four consecutive decades and counting.
Despite plenty of cold spells in the past few decades, no one under the age of 42 has lived through what could be considered a historically cold winter season in central England.
Thus, while weather extremes will continue to occur at both ends of the spectrum as part of a natural, jet stream-driven rollercoaster, the evidence supports the projections that warmer, wetter winter weather is winning.
Simon Lee, PhD Student in Atmospheric Science, University of Reading
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Leftists are about to learn that most of the beneficial warming we’ve enjoyed since 1979 has been from PDO and AMO warm cycles, and NOT from CO2 forcing, which this insane CAGW hoax is supposed to be all about.
Both the PDO and AMO are approaching their 30-year cool cycles, which is one of the reasons for the bitter winters we’ve been suffering through….
Once the PDO/AMO properly enter their respective 30-year ocean cool cycles, these cold events will become more frequent and global temps will start trending downward, as they did from 1945~1977, and from 1880~1915.
Leftists’ silly “Polar Vortex” mantra to explain away any weather event they don’t like is getting tedious… Polar Vortexes happen every other year or so, and are NOT caused by CO2..
2 years before the coldest period since the warmer 1940s
The Ten warmest winters in CET are, in order….
1869 6.8
2016 6.7
1834 6.5
1989 6.5
2007 6.4
1975 6.4
1686 6.3
1990 6.2
1796 6.2
2020 6.2
And yes, most of the winters that averaged below 2C were during the Little Ice Age
COLDEST period in10,000 years. !
Everybody in the UK should be CHEERING that those brutally cold winters are not occurring much any more.
Linear trend in winter averages is a steady 0.04ºC/decade,since 1660, with no sign of any acceleration.
There is absolutely ZERO evidence of any human CO2 warming in the CET winter temperatures.
The 10 warmest Summer averages in CET are…
1977 17.8
1827 17.6
1996 17.4
2004 17.3
2019 17.3
2007 17.2
1847 17.1
1984 17.1
1948 17.0
1934 17.0
The Trend in the summer averages is 0.01ºC/decade with no sign of any acceleration.
There is absolutely ZERO evidence of any human CO2 warming in the CET summer temperatures.
It has become a little milder in the UK in winter in the past few decades although there is nothing to suggest that the winters could not become colder in the next few decades. People use a straight line through data as though it is the long term trend but it is not because we have had years in the UK where we have had colder than average temperatures. While not accepting that this change is exactly cyclical these up and downs in temperature continue over long time periods, think of the little ice age and the medieval warm period or even ice ages, it is never a straight line through the small amount of data that we have.
Quote: “…the succession of different extremes raises questions about climate variability and climate change.”
Back in the 1970s, that’s what global cooling was supposed to cause. Here’s an excerpt from a 1974 CIA report about the looming threat of a return to the neo-boreal conditions of the Little Ice Age (global cooling):
The Warmunists have done their best to consign the Global Cooling Scare of the 1970’s to the memory hole as it completely punctures their narrative.
Stratospheric intrusion in the US is expanding westward ( Colorado).
Climate science involves many different inter-related natural systems on earth – it’s more than just the human influence or carbon dioxide/greenhouse gas emissions. Some climate drivers are natural and cyclical – like the repeating patterns of El Nino, Southern Oscillation. Some are spontaneous and unexpected – like volcanoes or large wildfires.
(1) “Grindelwald Fluctuation’ (1560-1630) – Little Ice Age – What We Can Learn From The Past Is Prepare. – YouTube
There were extreme weather events back in the little ice age
Weird weather in Bristol during the Grindelwald Fluctuation (1560–1630) – Jones – – Weather – Wiley Online Library
Who is this lloydo moron going on about ”its the observed data” nonsense.
Isnt it obvious that all the really cold winters or decades were before 1900.
Ya know during the little ice period, how is comparing that era to todays era of a natural thawing anything to do with actual science.
Since 1900 its clearly cyclical until the 80s then any government data after that has to be taken with a huge pinch of salt as the east anglia guys are the same guys in the climate gate scandal, and who in their right mind after reading those puts 2 penneths worth trust in those shysters.
oops during the little ice age period
This is a priceless discussion. Good to see that we still have some people who can put together some priceless put downs – “Jesus Christ on a bike in the afternoon” just folded me up.
Meanwhile in the real world, England are way behind on first innings, all out for 134 on a DUST BOWL wicket and India are batting again…….sob……..sniffles.. ..
Just wait till we get the Indians over here in UK and trap them on an absolute SOGGY in Leeds…..
See, there is relevance after all….. weather variability….
Blasphemist. It never rained in Leeds before 1980.
My Mum lives there now, literally at the Kirkstall Lane End.
Apologies to people who have no idea what I’m talking about. Brian clearly does.
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute, usually a shrill voice for warming alarm, concedes: “cold waves like the one currently occurring in Europe may become more frequent.” This has caused consternation among fellow climatarians.
https://notrickszone.com/2021/02/13/january-mean-temps-in-northern-europe-stall-top-climate-scientist-concedes-cold-waves-more-frequent-ahead/
Ha ha ha ha. They may not become more frequent either. I think it’s great that the climate crisis is now the climate alarmist crisis, as eminently proven by loydo up-thread. She may be one brick short of legoland, and still doesn’t know the difference between linear and logarithmic functions but I’d miss her if she left.
Oh. My. God Neptune the Weather God!!!! He has committed Blasphemy!!! He will be cast into the Outer Darkness along with the rest of us twidgets, over here with the good food and drink and the fire in the fireplace. He will need comfort to get over not being One Of Them anymore.
Popcorn, anyone?
You forgot to mention, it’s because of Global Warming, that is the real reason for the split of the polar vortex.
And it is -30 Celsius in St.Paul MN as I write this. St. Paul is well south of any point in England.
In a post truth era of the progressive loonies, facts no longer matter.
Catastrophic man-made global warming is what ‘climate change’ was supposed to be about. The loonies want us to believe ‘climate change’ is responsible for anything and everything because the most basic premise of their supposition is not backed up by any discernible evidence.
It seems to me that Mother Nature refuses to cooperate with the IPCC, and real world observational data on climate refuses to cooperate with the climate change modellers and their GIGO models.
I don’t care who you are or where you are, but some of the creative cussing in these comments is hysterical!!!! Thank you for making the day that much lighter!
I have fed the birds, including the Cardinal and the chickadees and juncos and various sparrows and, am now awaiting the next dump of snow on my house. So far it appears that we have a wind chill of -22F, temp of barely 8F, and pending snow somewhere up there in the clouds. Total snow to date (since Feb. 2) is about 14 inches, but I haven’t measured it just yet. Just happy I decided to replace the old furnace last fall with a new, more efficient unit that has slightly dropped my gas bill.
Not to worry: it is part of a short-term cycle that seems to occur about every 10 years, the last episode being February 2011. Is anyone (besides Joe Bastardi and the guys who run WUWT) tracking these cycles or do I have to do all the work for you?
Have a nice cozy day.
“…we do know that climate change is likely to make winters ..”
What jumps out to me is that Simon Lee implicitly accepts the existence of “Climate Change” and that this change in climate is not within the range of natural variation.
However, if the variation he assumes is natural then there is no basis for his conclusion.
This brings to mind a recent article by Dr. Curry where she laments that the more recent climate “scientists” no longer have a background in the basic sciences (physics, chemistry etc). They start with the assumption (presumably from their professors, or even the nature of the program in which they are enrolled) that change is dangerous and man made, and instead have studied mathematics in order to build models to extrapolate from that assumption.
Climate scientists haven’t learned about climate cycles yet. They’re not the sharpest pencils in the box. If they were, they might have chosen to become real scientists.
That’s a very interesting photograph. The caption refers to Braemar and shows a building displaying the sign, “Great North Railway of Scotland”. But the railway line never reached Braemar. The end of the line was at Ballater, some 17 miles away from Braemar. Maybe there’s an explanation why a building in Braemar displays the sign of the GNoSR. Or maybe that building isn’t in Braemar.
I think they got it right, actually. I did spend some time up there once, in winter too, and it was wonderful – Inverness, Aviemore, etc., but never made it to Braemar.
https://outaboutscotland.com/braemar-in-aberdeenshire/
…… and, while I’m yammering on, spent some time on the Orkney Islands too. What a great place for understanding pre-climate liar climate history.
Can anyone answer the question I asked our junior school teacher when I was about eleven. The wet and dry thermometers you get the humidity figure from those tables mean you get a different answer if the ground it wet and dry from different evaporation so the number is never the real temperature is it? Surely it is always low by an amount determined by the evaporation cooling of the mandatory grass surrounding area by between zero and around ten degrees.
The BBC reports the anomalous freeze in Texas – remarkably without including the “but it’s caused by global warming” steer. A curious change of practice.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56058372
“Extreme cold, a heatwave, a deluge, and another cold snap: the succession of different extremes raises questions about climate variability and climate change.“
What questions?. The article clearly states these changes are within normal expected variability of the weather. It isn’t generally disputed that we have gradually moved into a warmer period than the little ice age a century and a half ago, so no reason to be surprised if cold extremes have lessened and average temperatures risen marginally. But these weather events say nothing about overall climate change nor are they proof of the widely publicized theory that human CO2 emissions (about 5% of total global emissions) are the primary control knob of tropospheric temperature, or that they will drive dangerous changes in climate. Those conclusions are only supported in the heads of undisciplined climate modelers and their model outputs.
Academic research was a good part of my job early in my career. I stopped as soon as I realized what was expected of me and what would be rewarded. It wasn’t what the public might think – good, honest and objective research with conclusions that would support good policy. The incentives were all around notoriety, prestige, money and power. If someone accidentally found some nugget of truth and told the world about it (before trying to make boat load of money on it) that was just a fortunate bonus.
It’s not cold enough to close the climate courts. The lawyers can work from home.
From the article: “Thus, while weather extremes will continue to occur at both ends of the spectrum as part of a natural, jet stream-driven rollercoaster, the evidence supports the projections that warmer, wetter winter weather is winning.”
You consider that evidence, do you?
I consider it pure speculation. No evidence involved. You are seeing what you expect to see.
Are all these measurements since the 1600’s made with the same type of instruments, in the same geographic location using the same methods? After all, doesn’t the scientific method require such methodology in order to compare data? just asking
Can we have CET summer temps to see how GH gases cause less cold, rather than more warmth?