Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The planned construction of 2,500 new power plants, most of them fossil fuel, has dashed hopes that Africa would leapfrog the developed world’s reliance on fossil fuels by going straight to renewable energy.
Climate change: Africa’s green energy transition ‘unlikely’ this decade
Matt McGrath – Environment correspondent
Tue, 12 January 2021, 2:03 am AESTFossil fuels are set to remain the dominant source of electricity across Africa over the next decade, according to a new study.
Researchers found that around 2,500 power plants are planned, enough to double electricity production by 2030.
But the authors say that less than 10% of the new power generated will come from wind or solar.
The authors say that Africa now risks being locked into high carbon energy for decades.
They argue that a rapid, decarbonisation shock is needed to cancel many of the plants currently planned.
Until now, there has been a widely shared view that African countries would “leapfrog” directly to renewable energy sources, and away from old world coal, oil and gas.
…
Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55620848
The abstract of the study;
A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success
Galina Alova, Philipp A. Trotter & Alex Money
Published:Energy scenarios, relying on wide-ranging assumptions about the future, do not always adequately reflect the lock-in risks caused by planned power-generation projects and the uncertainty around their chances of realization. In this study we built a machine-learning model that demonstrates high accuracy in predicting power-generation project failure and success using the largest dataset on historic and planned power plants available for Africa, combined with country-level characteristics. We found that the most relevant factors for successful commissioning of past projects are at plant level: capacity, fuel, ownership and connection type. We applied the trained model to predict the realization of the current project pipeline. Contrary to rapid transition scenarios, our results show that the share of non-hydro renewables in electricity generation is likely to remain below 10% in 2030, despite total generation more than doubling. These findings point to high carbon lock-in risks for Africa, unless a rapid decarbonization shock occurs leading to large-scale cancellation of the fossil fuel plants currently in the pipeline.
Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-00755-9
No doubt African nations will come to their senses when they realise renewables are the cheapest form of energy (do I need the /sarc?).
Sounds like the folks of the dark continent don’t believe hysterical Whiteys
Three little problems prevent Africa’s advancement:
corruption
incompetence
maladministration
Please quit talking about the U.S.
You are right.
The Fed corrupts everyone they can, and send the CIA to drag the rest out in public to shove a knife up their anus.
Incompetent Bolshevik-trained rich kids from Florida descend upon Africa to teach us how to grow GMO crops that always fail because we cannot afford the fertilisers and chemicals needed for GMO to grow profitably enough to afford the next season’s GMO seed.
Maladministration is the excuse offered when so-called Aid Packages to Africans are actually loans, at interest, designed to be forever unpayable, and only given under the rules of Good Governence, where all that “Aid” money has to be spent on IMF-approved projects, using IMF-approved suppliers, at IMF-approved prices, meaning 90% of that money actually ends up back in the pockets of those who taxed YOU for that ‘Aid’ they the “administer” on your ignorant behalf.
Very observant from a guy in Dublin to have noticed that!
Your countries would literally be better off if you refused foreign aid and shot any local who took the money and stashed it in Switzerland.
Yeah, but, as I said; any president that refuses their “aid” gets dragged out onto the town square and assassinated as brutally as possible, by the CIA. You will not believe the things the CIA gets up to, and in the end, they are merely a division of the Federal Reserve, a PRIVATE corporation with private shareholding and private profit motives. Also, “stashing the money in Switzerland” is a very tiny bit of the problem:
https://greenpets.co.za/index.php/en/12-paranoid-goy/173-charity-fraud
The reasons for their backwardness go deeper. But we should not go into them here. 🙊You can research them and find them out if you do historical reading about the continent. I hope China isn’t dumb enough to repeat Europe’s foolish colonial path 💩
A huge oil/gas find in Africa is said to be Texas size. Also, Exxon/Mobil found a sizeable offshore deposit a few years ago. This should perk the CCP ears up, eh?
Pretty much explains the story.
Where, exactly would those reserves be. Just asking, so we will know which “African dictator” the CIA will next drag out onto the street and assassinate with a knife up his ass, like they did with our beloved and respected Colonel Gadhafi, may his soul haunt Hillary forever, the cackling psychopath bitch!
Reliable power is just one aspect.
Western “green” NGOs also try to prevent them using DDT for malaria control, prevent use of modern farm equipment for efficient farming (CO2 don’t you know), pesticides, herbicides, the list goes on. You know, everything that allows comfortable modern life in developed countries.
These people truly believe subsistence farming is the model and we need to force Africa to remain in that mode.
I repeat, there will eventually need to be Climate Change POLICY crimes against humanity trials, these trials should be held in the poorest African country and the punishments should be meted out by those kept in poverty by our green imperialist NGOs and politicians.
Pay back will be a beeatch
I agree, almost. Subsistence farming is NOT promoted. As a matter of fact, Monsanto and their Chief Evangelist, Baal Gates, spend billions “gifting” GMO tech and factory farm methods, disrupting traditional food sources, bankrupting entire tribes, and the peasants die of hunger and insecticide pollution right next to heavily-secured farms growing nothing but luxury crops for export to richer nations.
Did you know that the infamous Ethiopian famine of the eighties happened right after The Holy Investor realised Ethiopia is the perfect place to grow GMO tomatoes?
This is a life and death issue for many Africans.. great choice!
“A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success”
There we have it folks. If the greens accept the ‘machine learning’ process of climate prediction, they must therefore accept the machine learning process of fossil fuel prediction.
and what exactly would [unless a rapid decarbonization shock] be Im wondering???
“The planned construction of 2,500 new power plants, most of them fossil fuel, has dashed hopes that Africa would leapfrog the developed world’s reliance on fossil fuels by going straight to renewable energy.”
Of course. They need real power that really works, and they need it yesterday. Unicorn farts and rainbows (plus some energy storage fairy dust to be delivered Real Soon Now) just won’t to it.
and Moonbeams, don’t forget Moonbeams 💩
“The authors say that Africa now risks being locked into high carbon energy for decades. “
That sounds bad but I can almost guarantee that this is by policy maker design. Why? Because you can grow an economy faster on fossil fuels vs intermittent energy.