African Workers Installing Pipes in a Combined Cycle Gas Power Plant in Egypt. Nicolás Adamo, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Study: Africa’s Green Energy Transition “Unlikely”

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

The planned construction of 2,500 new power plants, most of them fossil fuel, has dashed hopes that Africa would leapfrog the developed world’s reliance on fossil fuels by going straight to renewable energy.

Climate change: Africa’s green energy transition ‘unlikely’ this decade

Matt McGrath – Environment correspondent
Tue, 12 January 2021, 2:03 am AEST

Fossil fuels are set to remain the dominant source of electricity across Africa over the next decade, according to a new study.

Researchers found that around 2,500 power plants are planned, enough to double electricity production by 2030. 

But the authors say that less than 10% of the new power generated will come from wind or solar.

The authors say that Africa now risks being locked into high carbon energy for decades. 

They argue that a rapid, decarbonisation shock is needed to cancel many of the plants currently planned.

Until now, there has been a widely shared view that African countries would “leapfrog” directly to renewable energy sources, and away from old world coal, oil and gas.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55620848

The abstract of the study;

A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success

Galina Alova, Philipp A. Trotter & Alex Money 
Published: 

Energy scenarios, relying on wide-ranging assumptions about the future, do not always adequately reflect the lock-in risks caused by planned power-generation projects and the uncertainty around their chances of realization. In this study we built a machine-learning model that demonstrates high accuracy in predicting power-generation project failure and success using the largest dataset on historic and planned power plants available for Africa, combined with country-level characteristics. We found that the most relevant factors for successful commissioning of past projects are at plant level: capacity, fuel, ownership and connection type. We applied the trained model to predict the realization of the current project pipeline. Contrary to rapid transition scenarios, our results show that the share of non-hydro renewables in electricity generation is likely to remain below 10% in 2030, despite total generation more than doubling. These findings point to high carbon lock-in risks for Africa, unless a rapid decarbonization shock occurs leading to large-scale cancellation of the fossil fuel plants currently in the pipeline.

Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-00755-9

No doubt African nations will come to their senses when they realise renewables are the cheapest form of energy (do I need the /sarc?).

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Pauleta
January 12, 2021 10:03 am

Hey, there’s always the next decade to start. They should ban gas powered cars right now, it should help a lot, I guess.

I have seen predictions of 6C in 2145 (I don’t know why not 2146 or 44), which is quite scary. /s

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Pauleta
January 12, 2021 10:41 am

When making a guess based on no evidence or inventing a statistic, it’s always best to be very precise. That way others are fooled into believing your fantasies.

David Yaussy
Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 12, 2021 10:51 am

That’s correct 84.6% of the time.

max
Reply to  David Yaussy
January 13, 2021 8:37 am

But 94% of statistics posted to the internet are made up. 8D

Robert Austin
Reply to  Pauleta
January 12, 2021 1:10 pm

Pauleta,
How about all the many scary climate predictions that have not come to pass? Maybe you get some kind of subconscious pleasure out of being scared. There are many among you that would consider it bad news if climate change turned out to be a non-problem.

Monster
Reply to  Robert Austin
January 12, 2021 3:58 pm

Robert, your sarc detector seems to be malfunctioning.

michael hart
Reply to  Monster
January 12, 2021 9:35 pm

Yes. The /s term is often not understood.
Generally, I also find that sarcasm is simply not worth the effort on the internet if I want to get a point across.

Redge
Reply to  Pauleta
January 12, 2021 11:23 pm

I read it was 14th July 2145 at 1:47:33 pm

Reply to  Redge
January 13, 2021 12:56 am

Typical of you deniers, can’t even get your facts straight! Is that time East coast, West coast or just GMT?

Redge
Reply to  paranoid goy
January 13, 2021 3:01 am

MGBGT time

griff
January 12, 2021 10:05 am

Hmmm. click thru the BBC link to the original research paper and see its modelled based on some very speculative data.

fred250
Reply to  griff
January 12, 2021 12:38 pm

Thanks for showing us that models are NOT REALITY

The CHIMP5/6 models can now be totally ignored as NOT REALITY

They are the only place that atmospheric CO2 causes warming

Wouldn’t you agree, griff.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
January 12, 2021 12:52 pm

In other words, it’s standard fare for the climate alarmist set.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  griff
January 12, 2021 1:03 pm

All models are speculation based on incomplete shonky data, particularly climate models

Redge
Reply to  griff
January 12, 2021 11:26 pm

Griff,

You’ve gone from woke to woken up!

Last edited 5 months ago by Redge
Reply to  Redge
January 13, 2021 12:59 am

No, that was just the guy that comes in on Wednesdays, uses the same cubicle and username, just another of the thirteen “internet narrative steersmen” working in that particular troll farm.

Bill Toland
January 12, 2021 10:07 am

“Until now, there has been a widely shared view that African countries would “leapfrog” directly to renewable energy sources, and away from old world coal, oil and gas”.
Who has this “widely shared view”?

OweninGA
Reply to  Bill Toland
January 12, 2021 10:10 am

By the same people that can’t do math and think renewables can drive a western economy.

DonM
Reply to  Bill Toland
January 12, 2021 10:31 am

The ones that pretended to hold that view are the same ones that wanted to term coal, oil & gas as “old world”. They are the propagandists, the lairs, and the would be beneficiaries of the lie (I am leaving out the odd dupes since they are few and far between at this point in time; the ‘beneficiaries’ include those that are on board just make themselves better about their worthless lives).

True old world energy sources are wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, & slave. Galina Alova, Philipp A. Trotter & Alex Money are liars and propagandists.

Last edited 5 months ago by DonM
Notanacademic
Reply to  DonM
January 12, 2021 2:06 pm

“true old world energy sources are wind etc” even when wind was a viable proposition the miller would have chosen water to power his mill if geography allowed, it’s been known for several centuries that wind power is s**t and unreliable. Africa has suffered enough if they are to stand a chance of improving their lot (and I truly hope they do) it’s not going to be with unreliables, only an ecoloon would expect them to try.

AndyHce
Reply to  DonM
January 12, 2021 4:54 pm

I thik you greatly underestimate the number of “dupes”, the believers who understand little beyond what the party line says. They are not potential beneficiaries and they exist in great numbers, as always.

DonM
Reply to  AndyHce
January 13, 2021 10:02 am

Their benefit is that it makes them feel good about themselves.

I don’t give them an out anymore just because they are ignorant … time’s up.

Clarky of Oz
Reply to  DonM
January 13, 2021 4:24 am

Don’t forget whale oil.

Jeffrey H Kreiley
Reply to  Bill Toland
January 12, 2021 11:38 am

The new Colonialists-western Progressives.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Jeffrey H Kreiley
January 12, 2021 11:57 am

Can the progressives not see that telling African nations what to do and how to live is EXACTLY what progressives did throughout the U.S. Colonialism in the 19th and 20th century period?

If they really believed in Black Empowerment they would not be considering how Africans should live. They would be supporting their decisions.

MarkW
Reply to  Jim Gorman
January 12, 2021 12:53 pm

Telling brown skinned people what to do and how to live, is only wrong when other people do it. This thinking is quite prevalent amongst progressives in the US as well.

Jean Parisot
Reply to  Jim Gorman
January 12, 2021 4:59 pm

Just in the US?

Philip
Reply to  Bill Toland
January 12, 2021 11:49 am

It is the widely shared view of the green, anti-industrial, climate alarmist. Big champions of global poverty as idyllic, unencumbered living, and shaming/punishing people who don’t share their world view. It’s complicated. 🤣

Peter W
Reply to  Philip
January 12, 2021 5:09 pm

Exactly right. Everybody is supposed to be made equal. The way that works out is, that everybody is made equally poor. See, e.g., Cuba.

Redge
Reply to  Peter W
January 12, 2021 11:29 pm

Not every one

MarkG
Reply to  Redge
January 13, 2021 10:16 am

The people pushing for everyone to be made equal are the ones who expect to be Commissars. Since they’ve never studied history, they don’t understand that they’re always the first ones sent to the Gulag after the Revolution.

Redge
Reply to  MarkG
January 13, 2021 10:18 am

I meant not everyone is made equally poor

Notanacademic
Reply to  Bill Toland
January 12, 2021 1:53 pm

Unicorns fairies and doom pixies. Sarc but I think you knew.

Mariner
Reply to  Bill Toland
January 12, 2021 2:21 pm

Africans will dodge one bullet as their new power plants will hopefully outlast the green machine. They will walk into another by being in beholden to the Chinese for ever. The western world is forcing them into this by refusing power plant loans that are not green.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Bill Toland
January 13, 2021 4:45 am

BBC journalists allhave the same view, which they think us widely shared.

MarkG
Reply to  Bill Toland
January 13, 2021 10:15 am

Midwits.

John Bell
January 12, 2021 10:08 am

2500 power plants? WOW! the mind boggles.

OweninGA
Reply to  John Bell
January 12, 2021 10:14 am

It is still called the dark continent in part because there is very little electricity outside of large cities. 2500 plants will likely double the number on what is a very large piece of real estate. It likely still won’t extend power outside those few large cities though. Africa needs major investment in power infrastructure, and likely won’t get it while their corrupt governments steal everything that isn’t nailed down.

John Bell
Reply to  OweninGA
January 12, 2021 11:12 am

And if it can be pried up, it ain’t nailed down! 🙂

MarkG
Reply to  John Bell
January 13, 2021 10:17 am

Yes. It’s hard to build a power grid when people will just cut down the wires and sell them.

Reply to  OweninGA
January 12, 2021 8:07 pm

Y’all sound like Bill Gates.

Dave_G
Reply to  OweninGA
January 13, 2021 3:46 pm

There’s an image somewhere that illustrates just how large the continent of Africa really is. The picture super-imposes most of the Western worlds countries on top of Africa and that continent swallows them all!
2,500 power stations in the context of such a large place is just the start – there will be 10’s of thousands eventually.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  John Bell
January 13, 2021 6:54 am

That’s a lot of dung.

Joe Wagner
January 12, 2021 10:15 am

Am I missing something here?
Rather than actually going out and finding what projects are planned, they created a model and had it tell them what projects would be planned???

Thats…… well……. Mind Boggling stupid- except they get a published paper without leaving their cushy offices, so they have that going for the,

Dave Fair
Reply to  Joe Wagner
January 12, 2021 11:07 pm

Actually, they threw a bunch of data on actual past power plant and related facilities development timelines into a hopper (database) and let the computer mull over all the relationships (AI model development) until it developed some computer-world “rules” as to the likelihood of power plant development scenarios. They applied those model-world rules to the latest existing plans for power plant developments throughout Africa over the next 10 years. Frankly, I’m shocked they could even come up with 10% ‘ruinables’ in the future power plant mix. I suspect some green NGOs put the thumb on the scales for ‘ruinables.’

Tim Gorman
January 12, 2021 10:19 am

In this study we built a machine-learning model”

Once again, models all the way down. Why do so many scientists today think models = reality?

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Tim Gorman
January 12, 2021 10:45 am

They also believe that modeled output = data and use it accordingly.

ex-KaliforniaKook
Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 12, 2021 12:21 pm

The output is data. It’s just that until the model is validated, it is pretty useless data to be kept under one’s collective hat.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  ex-KaliforniaKook
January 12, 2021 12:53 pm

Oddly, I have always thought data arose from direct observation and measurement. Is the output of a random number generator data or just a statistical artifact?

Pariah Dog
Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 12, 2021 2:05 pm

It’s data that pertains to the output of the RNG. An RNG that spits out 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 is clearly not behaving correctly, but might be more useful than a climate model.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Pariah Dog
January 12, 2021 5:30 pm

Computer models have already proven to be highly successful at flummoxing apparently intelligent people and raising $billions to defraud millions of taxpayers. They support the pointless “science” of the massive AGW and “climate change” industry, globally.

Peter W
Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 12, 2021 5:12 pm

The idea that data arises from direct observation is the old-fashioned way of doing things, unless, of course, the data has been appropriately adjusted first.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Peter W
January 12, 2021 5:33 pm

So … just a guess, once the info is pulled out of one’s butt and entered into the computer model it suddenly becomes real data? I’m learning a lot today.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 12, 2021 11:13 pm

That’s how they do it: Couple the output of an unvalidated high-ECS UN IPCC climate model using RCP8.5 (data) to the input of an unvalidated academic econometric model (ala Nordhaus) and presto! … Scientific fraud at its best.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Dave Fair
January 13, 2021 12:18 am

Hey … presto change’o the modern miracle of post modern science. I’ve known these things for over 30 years and yet people still pretend it’s valid science … fewer and fewer people are resisting the nonsense. Those who are pushing it own the media and virtually every means to disseminate information.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 13, 2021 12:33 am

When power bills skyrocket, the cost of living increases unbearably and massive tax increases are proposed, voters will revolt. I’ll be one of the first to put on a yellow vest.

Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 12, 2021 5:01 pm

Calling computer output data is science mal-practice.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Dan Pangburn
January 12, 2021 5:35 pm

That’s what I thought … but what do I know. This is ‘post modern’ science we’re dealing with. It’s a different world. The Emperor’s New Clothes are just a matter of opinion.

Randy Stubbings
Reply to  Tim Gorman
January 12, 2021 10:49 am

Apparently it takes machine learning to figure out that the power plants most likely to get built are the ones that are economic.

fred250
Reply to  Randy Stubbings
January 12, 2021 12:42 pm

.. and RELIABLE.

AndyHce
Reply to  fred250
January 12, 2021 4:59 pm

Assuming the big brothers don’t prevent fuel and maintenance parts from reaching them.

DonM
Reply to  Randy Stubbings
January 13, 2021 10:08 am

well, since the window breakers are now running the show, one does have to put a little effort into figuring out what is most efficient.

Jeffery P
Reply to  Tim Gorman
January 12, 2021 12:34 pm

I blame Star Trek. Mr Spock could model anything perfectly and calculate the odds of success of an action that’s never been tried before.

michael hart
Reply to  Jeffery P
January 12, 2021 9:56 pm

Never tell me the odds.

fred250
Reply to  Tim Gorman
January 12, 2021 12:41 pm

With Africa’s very large coal reserves, and the need for RELIABLE electricity to lift the country from third world standards..

…. even a common sense model would show COAL is the way forward for most African countries.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  fred250
January 12, 2021 3:20 pm

Even the expense of building a clean coal plant would be cheaper than intermittent, unreliable solar and wind, especially with their coal reserves.

Dave Fair
Reply to  fred250
January 12, 2021 11:15 pm

Please don’t confuse the zeal to protect us all with common sense.

AndyHce
Reply to  Tim Gorman
January 12, 2021 4:57 pm

There is a cadre of them that thinks the whole universe as we experience it is nothing but someone else’s computer model.

Peta of Newark
January 12, 2021 10:25 am

UK’s energy transition is hardly a Bed-of-Roses either…
Quote:
“”All energy retailers will make large losses tomorrow“”

https://postimg.cc/F1NzSyXg

fretslider
January 12, 2021 10:31 am

Bad news for Al Jabeeba and Harrabin sidekick McGrath.

They dream of Star Trek villages.

ResourceGuy
January 12, 2021 10:39 am

The Chinese are doing the real work in Africa while the U.S. flings trinkets from diplomats.

Jeffery P
Reply to  ResourceGuy
January 12, 2021 12:40 pm

That’s because China allows bribes and makes promises it doesn’t intend to keep.

Philip
Reply to  Jeffery P
January 12, 2021 12:57 pm

Whatever China spends on building with imported Chinese labor in Africa, is offset by the debt dependency Chinese loans require of those African States in the fine print. Hard currency in dollars. It’s estimated the half of Ethiopia’s billions of external debt is owed to China in dollars. Not the Ethiopian Birr.

Peter W
Reply to  Philip
January 12, 2021 5:16 pm

Given the excess of government spending over income, are you really confident that the US dollar will end up any better than the Ethiopian Birr?

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Peter W
January 12, 2021 6:43 pm

If any trading is conducted outside Ethiopia it’s done in US dollars. The Ethiopian Birr is pretty much worthless. Last time I was there I was stuck and could not withdraw any cash as the country, in the 12-13 months after my first visit in 2006, had completely changed their banking system and if I didn’t have a PIN on my credit card I could not withdraw cash, signatures were no longer valid.

Philip
Reply to  Peter W
January 12, 2021 7:06 pm

US dollar is safe for now. Ask me again after four years of Biden-Harris.
They’re apt to pull the $US as the worlds reserve currency to placate China and Russia. We’re going back to the sniveling, head bowed, self-defacing America on the world stage. I wouldn’t be surprised if they started pulling The Wall down before Jill Biden has the WH drapes redone.

Last edited 5 months ago by Philip
Patrick MJD
Reply to  Philip
January 12, 2021 8:14 pm

Biden-Harris are going to be a disaster. But you won’t read about it in the papers.

MarkG
Reply to  Patrick MJD
January 13, 2021 10:19 am

‘The collapse of the economy was due to Trumpist infiltrators and saboteurs.’

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Philip
January 12, 2021 6:49 pm

Ethiopia has been paying large, that I know of, since 2006. Building roads that went now where and not employing locals was a big issue there. Ethiopia did actually fund most of the stonework for the dam (GRD) locally, with local hires too. However, most of the funding for the internal machinery was funded by the Chinese.

There is a hydro dam on the Blue Nile near the “Whispering Falls” (Image is on the 1 Birr note) which 75% of the water that used to fall is diverted to the dam. Then you see bright new galvanised steel pylons carrying power to Addis Abbab. What I saw then, 2006, were mud/stick huts with power meters hanging on the wall. It was a contrasting sight.

Glenn Vinson
Reply to  ResourceGuy
January 12, 2021 1:00 pm

Your right. The Chinese realize Sub-Saharan Africa cannot build nor maintain a modern society. The Chinese plan to be the camel with its head in the tent.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Glenn Vinson
January 12, 2021 4:17 pm

You are all wrong
The west and our NGOs are forcing African countries to work with China because we cut them off from financing if they want to build reliable power
No loans for power plants and no other loans as well
Colonial, imperialist, stupid

The green trifecta

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
January 12, 2021 4:46 pm

That’s also why China split out on its own to form an alt World Bank.

Mr. Lee
January 12, 2021 11:01 am

Is it me, or is the abstract poorly written? E.g., they mix tenses here:

We found that the most relevant factors for successful commissioning of past projects are at plant level:

RobH
Reply to  Mr. Lee
January 12, 2021 12:33 pm

It’s you. It makes perfect sense and the use of tenses is correct and appropriate.

Mr. Lee
Reply to  RobH
January 12, 2021 12:54 pm

No. The use of “past” in “past projects” implies that the factors took place in the past. It should be “were at plant level” or, better yet

After careful study of past projects, we found the most relevant factors, for successful commissioning, to be at plant level:

Dave Fair
Reply to  Mr. Lee
January 12, 2021 11:24 pm

“… relevant factors … are at plant level …” Don’t try to be an editor of other’s communication attempts. It was perfectly clear and grammatically correct.

Mr. Lee
January 12, 2021 11:05 am

They use the word “realization” twice in the abstract. It’s not wrong to use, but, imho, it is overwrought.

January 12, 2021 11:14 am

In Africa we don’t do green energy. Green wood is too hard to set on fire.
It has long been a concern for Africa; ya’ll white bastards had your industrial revolution, burning coal and oil, now you want to keep AFrica dark by insisting we don’t pollute?
ANyway, bro’s, go look how much pollution comes off cooking fires, electrix from coal stations have reduced that by a huge amount wherever it is available. We can spend twenty years replacing wood fires by coal stations, or two hundred years of wood smoke and green dreams we cannot afford, because the Green Freaks are using “peacekeepers” to patrol our ancestral hunting grounds turned into open-cast mines, where ya’ll each keep a piece and we don’t get to keep a very big piece of that action at all…

Mr. Lee
January 12, 2021 11:16 am

What I seem to be reading is that they predict the “renewable” energy plants will fail and the fossil fuel plants will be successfully built.

I like the phrase,

 high carbon lock-in risks for Africa

What is the “risk” here? The “risk” of producing CO2? In other words, the production of CO2 is a disaster unto itself. The people of South Africa will suffer because of all that evil CO2 in the air!

John Bell
January 12, 2021 11:23 am

OT a bit, but…is there really that much snow on ground down south now? (I’m in Michigan)
https://www.iweathernet.com/snow/snow-depth-and-percent-coverage
I thought snow was a thing of the past? Children won’t know…

RicDre
Reply to  John Bell
January 12, 2021 1:32 pm

“…is there really that much snow on ground down south now?

We had a couple of big snow storms here in Northeastern Ohio but not much is left on the ground. They are predicting more snow for this area next week.

AndyHce
Reply to  John Bell
January 12, 2021 5:04 pm

Progressive parents try to protect their offspring from evil sights. White has conclusively been proven evil, therefore …

Peter W
Reply to  John Bell
January 12, 2021 5:20 pm

AS I recall, it was a NY Stater, among others, who was predicting snow would be a thing of the past. Didn’t I read recently about a record-breaking snowfall in NYC?

Mr. Lee
January 12, 2021 11:24 am

The idea of punishing indigenous S. Africans , who have suffered the privations of being without reliable electricity, with a “decarbonisation” shock…seems a bit racist to me. As it seems to imply that they are not worthy of affordable electricity.

Peter W
Reply to  Mr. Lee
January 12, 2021 5:21 pm

But how, then, are you going to make them all sufficiently equal?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Peter W
January 12, 2021 11:27 pm

Poverty will take care of that. Socialism allocates shortages.

Steve Case
January 12, 2021 11:34 am

“The authors say that Africa now risks being locked into high carbon energy for decades.”

So what?  

CO2 is NOT 
 a Problem 

Philip
January 12, 2021 11:41 am

“Until now, there has been a widely shared view that African countries would “leapfrog” directly to renewable energy sources, and away from old world coal, oil and gas.”

These same greenies hoping Africa would also not industrialize. They could scape and dig for resources on their hands and knees under some cute name like artisanal mining, but manufacture anything more than t-shirts or sneakers for today’s favored brand, eeeek! That’s eco terrorism. Committing the social crime of contributing to climate change and earths inevitable doom. 😒

alastair gray
Reply to  Philip
January 12, 2021 11:57 am

Go for it Africa !! don’t let the Greenies achieve their 1 bn population at your expense

Dave Fair
Reply to  alastair gray
January 12, 2021 11:29 pm

Yes, let Planned Parenthood do it for you.

fred250
January 12, 2021 12:03 pm

Slightly OT.

Report on the grid separation in the EU the other day

https://notrickszone.com/2021/01/12/europes-near-electricity-black-friday-was-triggered-in-france-due-to-polar-cold-wave/

The Macaroon shutting down a couple of nuclear power plants

NO WIND over the whole grid

etc etc

Was bound to happen sooner or later…

….. but will it be enough for the necessary wake-up call. !

AndyHce
Reply to  fred250
January 12, 2021 5:07 pm

Not for those using the opium pipes in the green dens. Everything is a drug dream.

Peter W
Reply to  fred250
January 12, 2021 5:25 pm

“but will it be enough for the necessary wake-up call.”

Of course not! Hard, cold reality (pun intended) is way too difficult for today’s greenies to face up to!

Reply to  fred250
January 13, 2021 10:05 am

From the link:
“1) The polar cold wave occurred earlier than meteorologically expected, with low temperatures for France.”

Where is griff if he is needed ?
Wasn’t he always telling us, to predict wind at minutes exactly is soooo easy and than that ?
But not the exact timing for a coldwave ? Unbelievable 😀

ResourceGuy
January 12, 2021 12:10 pm

Well, with models you don’t have to get out and get your shoes dirty.

Gregory Woods
Reply to  ResourceGuy
January 12, 2021 1:07 pm

and your brain doesn’t have to think too hard…

commieBob
January 12, 2021 12:34 pm

Africa doesn’t have a huge energy infrastructure, so there’s nothing to keep them from doing anything that is viable. The promoters of wind energy tell us it is cheaper than any other energy. If that’s true, Africans would be crazy to use anything else.

So, if there’s nothing to stop them from using wind energy and assuming they aren’t stupid or crazy, why aren’t they installing wind?

Clearly the assumption, that wind is so cheap it makes any other kind of energy unnecessary, is flawed.

My question for the promoters of wind energy is this, why isn’t Africa embracing wind energy?

Tim Gorman
Reply to  commieBob
January 12, 2021 3:28 pm

Why? Because it takes more energy to produce a wind turbine that it will provide over its lifetime – if you include all infrastructure costs. And Africa doesn’t have any infrastructure to support the wind turbines, no steel industry, no fiberglass industry, some concrete industry but probably not enough, no wire production for energy transmission, and on and on and on.

You have to start from the bottom and work your way up. Build just one major coal power plant and you’ll have enough energy to kickstart these industries, including more coal plants. How does a wind turbine do that?

commieBob
Reply to  Tim Gorman
January 12, 2021 4:32 pm

The problem is that wind has an enviable Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI), as long as you don’t care when you get the electricity. link So, when the advocates of renewable energy say wind is viable, they have data to prove it. You can’t run a windmill factory on unreliable energy though. So, in theory windmills do generate enough energy to replicate themselves.

In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they aren’t.

link

Last edited 5 months ago by commieBob
Dave Fair
Reply to  commieBob
January 12, 2021 11:31 pm

A Yogi-ism?

MarkW
January 12, 2021 12:48 pm

The Greens want Africans to use money they don’t have, to build power systems that don’t work.

MarkW
January 12, 2021 12:50 pm

Until now, there has been a widely shared view that African countries would “leapfrog” directly to renewable energy sources”

In other words, Green nutcases, talking to other green nutcases were all in agreement.

The opinions of actual Africans, and people who know something about power systems, were not welcome.

Substation Engineer
Reply to  MarkW
January 12, 2021 3:56 pm

People who know something about power system are becoming unwelcome in the United States. I hope that they reality soon brings us back from the edge, however I have yet to see this light. The regressive left is doubling down as we speak.

Bruce

Peter W
Reply to  Substation Engineer
January 12, 2021 5:29 pm

The regressive left is well practiced at ignoring reality in favor of their theories.

MarkG
Reply to  Peter W
January 13, 2021 10:22 am

The left just keep doubling down until society collapses. There’ll be no return to reality until that happens.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  MarkW
January 12, 2021 4:11 pm

They felt it would be the same as skipping over having landline telephones and going right to cell networks

Of course, cell networks work while wind and solar don’t, hence ain’t going to happen

And people think Africans are stupid
Seem pretty smart to me

COwho
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
January 15, 2021 3:26 pm

 they work, but not economically.

Rick
January 12, 2021 12:53 pm

The world needs to act now before Africa is allowed to regress any further. They need to be encouraged to promote the advanced technology that they have been using for years, such as recycling everything of value, small charcoal fires for cooking, and human powered water movement. Why should they be forced to give up their green nirvana for the slavery of cheap energy?

Gregory Woods
Reply to  Rick
January 12, 2021 1:05 pm

You have to be kidding! Oh? You are…

n.n
January 12, 2021 1:40 pm

Africans aren’t so green about Green. Good for them. It’s a niche solution and environmental blight.

Bill S
January 12, 2021 1:42 pm

The white socialists want to keep their boots on the necks of Africans. Thanks to EU/UN/IMF/etc China is colonizing black Africa. See Apocalypse Never for a discussion of this very ‘issue’.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Bill S
January 12, 2021 4:05 pm

Yes, we are forcing them into China’s economic orbit
Stupid and short sighted for the west, but that is how we roll
China taking the long view

Reply to  Pat from kerbob
January 12, 2021 8:11 pm

Let China have it.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Poems of our Climate
January 12, 2021 11:37 pm

I agree; let China pay for all the infrastructure. Africa will renege on the debt and will have developed enough military might to fend off China down the road. Or not. Who cares?

MarkG
Reply to  Dave Fair
January 13, 2021 10:26 am

China seems to like lending money to countries to pay Chinese companies to come in and build second-rate infrastructure which breaks after a few years. So the Chinese get jobs, the Africans get debts and no-one gets useful infrastructure.

And, once the countries have those debts, the Chinese effectively control them.

Last edited 5 months ago by MarkG
MarkG
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
January 13, 2021 10:25 am

The Chinese PAID Western politicians and ‘environmentalists’ to do just that. The Chinese want Africa’s resources; they don’t want Westerners getting them.

China has been fighting a war against the West through people who act like six year old kids who’ll do anything for candy. It’s no wonder they’ve been able to win without firing a shot.

CokMosby
January 12, 2021 2:36 pm

Sounds like the folks of the dark continent don’t believe hysterical Whiteys

Michael in Dublin
January 12, 2021 3:21 pm

Three little problems prevent Africa’s advancement:
corruption
incompetence
maladministration

Dave Fair
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
January 12, 2021 11:37 pm

Please quit talking about the U.S.

Reply to  Michael in Dublin
January 13, 2021 1:20 am

You are right.
The Fed corrupts everyone they can, and send the CIA to drag the rest out in public to shove a knife up their anus.
Incompetent Bolshevik-trained rich kids from Florida descend upon Africa to teach us how to grow GMO crops that always fail because we cannot afford the fertilisers and chemicals needed for GMO to grow profitably enough to afford the next season’s GMO seed.
Maladministration is the excuse offered when so-called Aid Packages to Africans are actually loans, at interest, designed to be forever unpayable, and only given under the rules of Good Governence, where all that “Aid” money has to be spent on IMF-approved projects, using IMF-approved suppliers, at IMF-approved prices, meaning 90% of that money actually ends up back in the pockets of those who taxed YOU for that ‘Aid’ they the “administer” on your ignorant behalf.
Very observant from a guy in Dublin to have noticed that!

COwho
Reply to  paranoid goy
January 15, 2021 3:36 pm

Your countries would literally be better off if you refused foreign aid and shot any local who took the money and stashed it in Switzerland.

Reply to  COwho
January 16, 2021 12:43 am

Yeah, but, as I said; any president that refuses their “aid” gets dragged out onto the town square and assassinated as brutally as possible, by the CIA. You will not believe the things the CIA gets up to, and in the end, they are merely a division of the Federal Reserve, a PRIVATE corporation with private shareholding and private profit motives. Also, “stashing the money in Switzerland” is a very tiny bit of the problem:
https://greenpets.co.za/index.php/en/12-paranoid-goy/173-charity-fraud

COwho
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
January 15, 2021 3:33 pm

The reasons for their backwardness go deeper. But we should not go into them here. 🙊You can research them and find them out if you do historical reading about the continent. I hope China isn’t dumb enough to repeat Europe’s foolish colonial path 💩

January 12, 2021 3:43 pm

A huge oil/gas find in Africa is said to be Texas size. Also, Exxon/Mobil found a sizeable offshore deposit a few years ago. This should perk the CCP ears up, eh?

Reply to  T. C. Clark
January 12, 2021 8:13 pm

Pretty much explains the story.

Reply to  T. C. Clark
January 13, 2021 1:23 am

Where, exactly would those reserves be. Just asking, so we will know which “African dictator” the CIA will next drag out onto the street and assassinate with a knife up his ass, like they did with our beloved and respected Colonel Gadhafi, may his soul haunt Hillary forever, the cackling psychopath bitch!

Pat from kerbob
January 12, 2021 4:28 pm

Reliable power is just one aspect.
Western “green” NGOs also try to prevent them using DDT for malaria control, prevent use of modern farm equipment for efficient farming (CO2 don’t you know), pesticides, herbicides, the list goes on. You know, everything that allows comfortable modern life in developed countries.

These people truly believe subsistence farming is the model and we need to force Africa to remain in that mode.

I repeat, there will eventually need to be Climate Change POLICY crimes against humanity trials, these trials should be held in the poorest African country and the punishments should be meted out by those kept in poverty by our green imperialist NGOs and politicians.

Pay back will be a beeatch

Reply to  Pat from kerbob
January 13, 2021 1:33 am

I agree, almost. Subsistence farming is NOT promoted. As a matter of fact, Monsanto and their Chief Evangelist, Baal Gates, spend billions “gifting” GMO tech and factory farm methods, disrupting traditional food sources, bankrupting entire tribes, and the peasants die of hunger and insecticide pollution right next to heavily-secured farms growing nothing but luxury crops for export to richer nations.
Did you know that the infamous Ethiopian famine of the eighties happened right after The Holy Investor realised Ethiopia is the perfect place to grow GMO tomatoes?

John Francis
January 12, 2021 4:49 pm

This is a life and death issue for many Africans.. great choice!

Hotscot
January 12, 2021 5:39 pm

“A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success”

There we have it folks. If the greens accept the ‘machine learning’ process of climate prediction, they must therefore accept the machine learning process of fossil fuel prediction.

ozspeaksup
January 13, 2021 5:08 am

and what exactly would [unless a rapid decarbonization shock] be Im wondering???

Ed Fix
January 13, 2021 2:45 pm

“The planned construction of 2,500 new power plants, most of them fossil fuel, has dashed hopes that Africa would leapfrog the developed world’s reliance on fossil fuels by going straight to renewable energy.”

Of course. They need real power that really works, and they need it yesterday. Unicorn farts and rainbows (plus some energy storage fairy dust to be delivered Real Soon Now) just won’t to it.

COwho
Reply to  Ed Fix
January 15, 2021 3:39 pm

 and Moonbeams, don’t forget Moonbeams 💩

Kramer
January 13, 2021 8:26 pm

The authors say that Africa now risks being locked into high carbon energy for decades. “

That sounds bad but I can almost guarantee that this is by policy maker design. Why? Because you can grow an economy faster on fossil fuels vs intermittent energy.

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