By Joe Bastardi
I see that Willis has referenced an idea I posed on a blog from another source so I wanted to make sure for WUWT I am clear. The last person I want to pick a fight with is Willis (or anyone. I simply observe, but forth ideas, and then in what I do, make a forecast for people willing to look) You notice that while I am a WUWT groupie, rarely do I comment.
The. “Go to” site for me on co2 is the Keeling Curve Site. https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ Its 2 year chart (you must click on it) does show some interesting things. Please excuse my lousy artwork, for along with being a lousy writer, I can’t draw to save my life. But you will get the point. (If you are wondering how I can write books, it is because I have a great editor, and he gets paid a % some other writers have told me is like he is getting combat pay. He is. He can translate Bastardiese, which is a level slightly below pig latin).
Now the blue line represents the late winter leveling off of co2, from what I have been told, the maximum time of year for arctic sea ice. When the ice starts to melt up goes co2 again until the foliage and lack of fossil fuel use in the northern hemisphere takes it back down. (This forms one of the legs of my “no fault” idea to get rid of the co2 fear without crashing our economy. 1) Plant a trillion trees worldwide. There is where the push should be on other governments. It is cheap and environmentally friendly. 2. Nuclear power. We have to get rid of the Jane Fonda induced “China Syndrome” (see the movie)hangover. In fact the only true China syndrome is that China leads the world in true air pollutant and ocean pollutant emissions. 3) Carbon Capture. Anyway, back in spring, when Covid hit, there was a mad rush to say the shutdown was reducing pollutants. It was, true pollutants of which co2 is not one. PARTICULATE AND TRUE POLLUTANTS WERE BEING REDUCED. But Co2 leveling off was like it is every year if you can blow up the jagged rise line you see in multi- year graphs. My observation is that this has been rising along with the increase in SST which is largely natural and cyclical (another argument for another time since there is much about the oceans we do not know. I am a Bill Gray person on this matter) My hypothesis was stated in the article if you read it, but I will rehash it here.
- Oceans are the biggest sink of co2
- The warmer the oceans, the more co2 released.
- The oceans have warmed.
- Co2 has increased.
Of course, our “friends” on the other side of the argument want to argue its co2 that has lead to the warming, and quite frankly I am open to that argument as long as warming persists. I don’t believe it, but BELIEVING something and ABSOLUTE KNOWLEDGE are 2 different things.
I believe in gravity, so do you. That is belief and absolute knowledge. I also believe that the pattern we are in can lead to a lot of snow in the south and the east, and will produce a major period of cold for a few weeks. But that is not absolute knowledge and even if and when it occurs, there will be arguments over it. The big difference I see in this debate over co2, is that while I acknowledge that they have every right to try to assign blame if they wish, the bulk of the people that do that will not look at anything that can challenge them. Even if there is precedent for warming in past times that has had little or nothing to do with co2, but instead as many of us believe, is largely natural. And that should tell you what the real conclusion is, that all our hand wringing over this is not truly about a level scientific argument among people of good will, but a smoke screen for “other things”. ( you can fill in your own ideas on that)
But in fairness to Willis he only looked thru November with his chart if I am reading it right. Look again at the red lines ( again this was in the article that was used as a tease for what was put on WUWT)
Clearly the slope from the min to max last year before the late winter level off ( then as you can see it resumes) was more sharply up than it has been this year. We increased about 5 ppm last year by this time, this year its about 3ppm. Now I think its because of what has been a big down turn in SST since last year at this time. Check this out, the difference in anomalies.
But I wrote this because I have been pushing this idea since summer to watch for this, a natural cause, knowing full well that there would be arguments for Covid style lock downs due to climate (Again I make clear in the article and in my book, my thoughts on this matter)
And I may not be right. I see other arguments, one has to, for the secret to having a chance to forecast the weather in a way that adds value is to making sure the idea one is most skeptical of is your own. Then you go looking for trouble and if you can counter it first, you have a chance. But I wanted to make sure that readers understood, even if wrong, where I as coming from.
To quote Eric Burdon from the Animals:
I’m just a soul whose intentions are good
O Lord please don’t let me be misunderstood.