The Week That Was: 2020-11-28 (November 28, 2020)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week “Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclination, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” — John Adams (1770)
Number of the Week: 2%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Greenhouse Continued Part II: Last week TWTW introduced the paper by Professor Emeritus of Physics, Howard Hayden that is built on the calculations of the greenhouse effect by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer (W & H) using the HITRAN database. Started in the 1960s, this is a well-established database of both observations and calculations used to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of electromagnetic radiation in the atmosphere. From HITRAN:
“The initial HITRAN was limited to the seven main telluric [related to the earth] atmospheric absorbers in the infrared: H2O, CO2, O3, N2O, CO, CH4, and O2. The most significant of the isotopologues [isotopic variations] of these molecular species was also included. The initial HITRAN database included only the basic parameters necessary to solve the Lambert-Beers law of transmission, namely the line center of a transition, the intensity of the transition, and the lower-state energy. In addition, the air-broadened Lorentz width [widening of the narrow frequency range for absorption in the atmosphere] was included as well as the unique quantum identifications of the upper and lower states of each transition.
“Before long, the objectives of HITRAN greatly expanded. The spectral range of applicability soon covered the microwave through visible region of the electromagnetic spectrum. In terms of physics, that meant transitions of pure rotation as well as ro-vibration (and even some transitions between different electronic states). The applications also went beyond the simple atmosphere, and many molecules were added that represented trace species in the atmosphere and pollutants in the troposphere. More recently, HITRAN has served the planetary atmospheres community. As a result, the transitions in the database have incorporated more basic parameters, especially those that allow simulation of collisional broadening of spectral lines.”
Since the fear of global warming is built on the ability of water vapor (H2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) to absorb and re-emit infrared energy slowing or blocking its path from the surface of the earth to space, one would assume that climate researchers would be using this database to uncover the extent to which increasing CO2, with an assumed increase in water vapor, is increasing the greenhouse effect. Apparently, they are not. The politically influential Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Fifth Assessment Report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does not focus on interactions of atmospheric gases.
Instead, the Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report relies on surface temperatures over the period 1951to 2010 to claim that natural internal variability is small compared to the observed warming due to greenhouse gases. [Figure SPM.3, p. 6] Further it claims that:
“Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks. {2}” p.6
The work of W & H and Hayden demonstrates why the IPCC ignores atmospheric measurements of the greenhouse effect. At the current concentrations, adding more greenhouse gases, especially water vapor and CO2, will have an exceedingly small effect on global temperatures. Atmospheric measurements contradict the claims of the IPCC and its followers who are engaged in a political movement, not a scientific venture.
As Richard Lindzen wrote earlier this year, (TWTW June 27) at most, doubling CO2 would disturb the earth’s estimated energy budget by less than 2%. This is hardly cause for extreme concern, particularly since the unknowns, such as clouds, are up to 10 times larger. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, and Seeking a Common Ground.
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Further Observations By Hayden: In his paper Hayden directly addresses the claimed strong positive feedback from an increase in water vapor with a small increase in temperatures from CO2, the so-called amplification found in the Charney Report and in global climate models. Hayden writes:
“So, let us consider the amplification question. A small increase in temperature occasioned by an increase in CO2 concentration supposedly causes a 4 × larger change in temperature because of H2O (or some other hypothetical phenomenon). What’s so special about CO2? No climate scientist has proposed any kind of exotic (or common) chemical reactions involving CO2, nor has anybody proposed any amplification caused by the relatively high molecular weight of CO2. In fact, the only thing that supposedly fires up the amplification mechanism is the increase in temperature caused by increased CO2. But increased temperature is increased temperature, regardless of the cause. Therefore, according to the IPCC and current climate models, anything whatsoever that causes the temperature to rise should cause exactly the same 4 × amplification of the temperature rise.
“In case you are wondering why the earth did not bootstrap itself into boiling temperatures during the Eemian Interglacial, the Holocene Climate Optimum, the Minoan Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, or thousands of other warmings, the answer is that the climate is not controlled by positive feedback—where hot weather begets even hotter weather—but by negative feedback—where, as things get hotter, they shed more heat. For the last half-billion years, this negative feedback system has kept the temperature of the surface of the earth within a few percent of its present 288 K. The last 1.8-million years has been the Pleistocene Epoch, a series of 100,000-year glacial periods punctuated with short 10,000-15,000 interglacial periods like the present one. Whoops! The last 10,000 years has been called the Holocene, so the Pleistocene must be over. That’s what the charts say. Whoops! It’s now the Anthropocene! Stay tuned!
“Perhaps the most important lesson to get from this discussion is that the heating effect of additional CO2 gets smaller and smaller as the CO2 concentration increases more and more. This shows up dramatically in Figures 1, 2, 3, and 6, and in the cutouts for the four CO2 concentrations. The hysterical notion that things are going to get worse and worse because of CO2 is very clearly at odds with the known properties of CO2.
“The figure to the right comes from [a draft of] the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report (AR6). [Not shown here but in Hayden’s paper.] The dashed line shows their projected Global Mean Temperature anomaly (difference from the 1850-1870 average, the “end” of the Little Ice Age), versus CO2 concentration. (The other lines are projected highs.) By 800 ppmv, the projected rise is almost 4 ºC above the present temperature. It is funny how, as the influence of CO2 gets smaller and smaller, the influence of CO2 gets larger and larger. “Climate science” produces unbelievable results.
“Hold onto your wallets as the classless political class attempts to ‘fight’ (‘battle,’ ‘address,’ ‘combat,’ ‘stop,’ ‘tackle,’ ‘reverse’ …) ‘climate change.’”
In short, adding greenhouse gases into today’s atmosphere has little effect. By the IPCC pretending it has great effect, which will not materialize, those “fighting climate change” will be able to declare a great victory, even though they accomplish nothing. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Confusing Issues: As discussed, W & H and Hayden state that the IR within the absorption band centered around CO2 is entirely absorbed, except for the far fringes (wavelengths far from the center, toward 13 µm and 17 µm (one millionth of a meter)). If the CO2 concentration increases, IR absorption increases in those fringe wavelengths, but the quantity of absorption is tiny and growing tinier with each increase in CO2. Note that at high altitude, CO2 is the primary emitter of radiation to space, thereby cooling the upper atmosphere.
Each month Roy Spencer calculates a linear temperature trend for atmospheric temperatures using the UAH method. For example, on November 2 he reported:
“The linear warming trend since January 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
This does not mean that a linear trend has been observed, and it would be a mistake to project this trend decades out. The observed temperature record has been erratic, influenced by volcanoes (cooling) at the beginning of the record and El Niños later, but otherwise fluctuating at random. Generally, a strong El Niño will cause a sharp increase in atmospheric temperatures, followed by a decline but with temperatures remaining roughly above the previous level. Statistically, this can be called a step function, but it is poorly defined. The causes of El Niños are not understood. See http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/11/uah-global-temperature-update-for-october-2020-0-54-deg-c/
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Good Ideas, Poor Execution: In her blog, Judith Curry recommends a Nature essay “Five rules for evidence communication.” Curry quotes their “tips for sharing evidence”:
“The aim is to ‘inform but not persuade’, and — as the philosopher of trust Onora O’Neill says — “to be accessible, comprehensible, usable and assessable”.
- Address all the questions and concerns of the target audience.
- Anticipate misunderstandings; pre-emptively debunk or explain them.
- Don’t cherry-pick findings.
- Present potential benefits and possible harms in the same way so that they can be compared fairly.
- Avoid the biases inherent in any presentation format (for example, use both ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ framing together).
- Use numbers alone, or both words and numbers.
- Demonstrate ‘unapologetic uncertainty’: be open about a range of possible outcomes.
- When you don’t know, say so; say what you are going to do to find out, and by when.
- Highlight the quality and relevance of the underlying evidence (for example, describe the data set).
- Use a carefully designed layout in a clear order and include sources.
The Nature essay continues:
“Trust is crucial. Always aiming to ‘sell the science’ doesn’t help the scientific process or the scientific community in the long run, just as it doesn’t help people (patients, the public or policymakers) to make informed decisions in the short term. That requires good evidence communication. Ironically, we hope we’ve persuaded you of that.” [Boldface added]
In the Supplemental Information of the Nature paper the authors destroy trust. Their references include:
“Oreskes N, Conway EM. Merchants of doubt: How a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming.”
The sentence that refers to Oreskes says, “Many fear admitting limitations in their knowledge. This could be motivated by concern for personal status, or by perceptions of the need to appear confident, or because of the fear that uncertainty can undermine trust or even be weaponised (by so-called ‘Merchants of Doubt’).” Ambiguity? … can be weaponized by ‘Merchants of Doubt,’ the book?
The Oreskes book is a clear example of how to avoid the need for evidence by making unsubstantiated accusations. In Shakespeare’s Othello the character Iago could not have done better. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Coral Reefs: Writing in her blog on measuring old corals and coral reefs, Jennifer Marohasy states:
“Science is not a truth. It is a way of getting to the truth via some method or other that often involves measurement. Sometimes scientists get the method wrong, and so they come up with answers that are also wrong. Sometimes the wrong answer pleases because it is politically correct.”
The scientific issue is the claim that many corals have been killed by coral bleaching from global warming. Peter Ridd and a few others have questioned that conclusion. As Marohasy writes:
“Peter Ridd has been asking for some quality assurance of so many of the measurements relating to Great Barrier Reef health, including coral growth rates. Key Australian institutions have responded by stonewalling, and in the case of James Cook University, actually sacking him. After two rounds in the federal courts his appeal against his dismissal is finally going to the High Court of Australia, with the next hearing probably in February 2021. While the lawyers are preoccupied with Peter’s rights, or otherwise, to academic freedom and freedom of speech, my concern is whether Peter is actually telling the truth when he says that the Great Barrier Reef is resilient and definitely not dying from coral bleaching, though there is a problem with the integrity of the science.”
Marohasy writes further:
“My working hypothesis is that Terry Hughes’ claims the reef is half dead, are not objective because there is a flaw with his particular survey method. This method is detailed in the technical literature, specifically his paper in Ecology published in 2018 entitled ‘Large-scale bleaching of corals on the Great Barrier Reef’.”
“Could it be that in surveying by looking out the window of an aeroplane at such a high altitude (150 metres), and then ground truthing only with respect to a particular reef habitat-type known as the ‘reef crescent’, Professor Hughes has inadvertently recorded a wrong answer? Could he be avoiding, even in denial, when it comes to all the corals in the reef lagoon?”
If the corals come back, the issue becomes: are they zombie corals? We probably will not see a resolution of the issue for several years. But broad declarative statements are a major problem created by climate alarmism. Often, they are followed by censorship. See links under Suppressing Scientific Inquiry.
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British Green: Paul Homewood has provided in depth analysis of some of the gaping holes in the UK’s program for green energy and banning vehicles with gasoline (petrol) or diesel engines. [As if energy has a color!] One could politely say that the plans are hopelessly optimistic, including the use of massive amounts of hydrogen for heating and transportation.
In discussing how fast charging can quickly damage the batteries of electric vehicles Homewood writes:
“In the normal world, technologies only take off once the obstacles have been resolved.”
Clearly, those declaring a “climate crisis” do not live in a normal world. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
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Quote of the Week: Though it is not well known, in between August and October 1779 while he was briefly home from Europe, John Adams wrote the draft to the Constitution of the State of Massachusetts. The Constitution was ratified on June 15,1780 and became effective on October 25, 1780, during the Revolutionary War. It is the oldest written constitution still in force. After the Preamble, the Constitution states:
Part The First:
A Declaration of the Rights of the Inhabitants of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts
Article I. “All men are born free and equal,…”
https://malegislature.gov/laws/constitution
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Number of the Week: 2%. On November 27 Homewood wrote:
Sat under an anticyclone [high pressure system], Britain’s contribution from wind power since yesterday has been less than 1GW, around 2% of the total electricity generated. This situation is expected to last a few more days yet. [Boldface added]
As ever, it is fossil fuels which have come to the rescue, with gas currently supplying 60% of the nation’s power, and even coal, which has been fired up to give 7%.
Indeed, in the last day we have had more power from coal than from wind.
Homewood had a photo of a graph of Wind Power from gridwatch.co.uk to back up his statement. As of 2020-11-29 19:10:00 GMT, wind power was generating about 6% of needed electrical generation. About 53% came from combined cycle gas turbines.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
Climategate: Another Anniversary (never forget ….)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 27, 2020
Censorship
When Will Biden Denounce Efforts To Silence Dissent?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 23, 2020
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-11-23-will-biden-denounce-efforts-to-silence-dissent
UK Politicians Demand Online Censorship
Antisemitic UK Labour Party wants to police other people’s speech.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Nov 23, 2020
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Measuring Old Corals & Coral Reefs (Part 1)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Nov 27, 2020
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020
https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098
Link to prepublication version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf
By Howard “Cork” Hayden, Energy Advocate, Accessed Nov 27, 2020
Climate Hustle 2: excellent
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Nov 21, 2020
https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/11/climate-hustle-2-excellent.html
Matt Ridley: Working class sacrifice at altar of green
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 24, 2020
“Well worth half an hour of your time, and sharing with friends.”
Scientists Discover Skyscraper-Sized Reef… In the Great Barrier Reef
By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 25, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Includes links to studies on corals before the modern mania.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers
By Staff, IPCC, 2014
Study: Climate Change Increases the Risk of Global Pandemics
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 26, 2020
Link to News Release:
Global warming likely to increase disease risk for animals worldwide
By Staff University of Notre Dame, Nov 23, 2020
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/201123161032.htm
Link to paper: Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates
By Jeremy M. Cohen, et al. Science, Nov 20, 2020
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6519/eabb1702
Strengthening the climate change scenario framework
News Release By International, Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Nov 24, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/iifa-stc112420.php
Link to announcement: Strengthening the climate change scenario framework
By Staff, IIASA, Nov 24, 2020
https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/news/201124-StrengtheningClimateFramework_.html
“Over the past decade, the climate change research community developed a scenario framework that combines alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. An international team of researchers assessed how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces.”
[SEPP Comment: More opportunities of glorified social engineers to censor physical science?]
Time: The US Must Regain Global Climate Trust by Offering “Tangible Support”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 25, 2020
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Famous Failed Predictions: UK Offshore Wind Edition
By Dave Middleton, WUWT, Nov 24, 2020
Slight, Beneficial Warming From More Carbon Dioxide!
By David Wojick, Townhall, Nov 27, 2020
We’ll take a cheque
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 25, 2020
“The politicians are alarmists. The professors are alarmists. The bankers are alarmists. Even the oil companies are alarmists (and much good may it do them). The movie stars are alarmists, with few exceptions. The rock stars are alarmists. They have the money and the prestige and the money and also the money. So at least stop with the character assassination and instead try to explain why with all that money, you’re having so much trouble persuading people and your computer models don’t work.”
Media Finally Wakes Up To Ruinous Climate Policies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 23, 2020
Great leap nowhere
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 25, 2020
“Nowadays the ‘Great Reset’, as Eric Worrall notes, is the big thing for those who think we can finally make capitalism work after two centuries of dismal failure disguised as brilliant success. But what if the whole thing leads nowhere at all?”
Why Worry about Warming? Cold is the Killer
By Viv Forbes, The Saltbush Club, Nov 22, 2020
Some Amazon Rainforest Regions More Resistant to Climate Change than Previously Thought
New observational study demonstrates that increasing air dryness does not reduce photosynthesis in certain very wet regions of the Amazon rainforest, contradicting Earth System Models that show the opposite
News Release, Columbia Engineering, Nov 20, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.engineering.columbia.edu/press-releases/gentine-climate-change-rainforest-regions
Link to paper: Amazon rainforest photosynthesis increases in response to atmospheric dryness
By J. K. Green, et al. Science Advances, Nov 20, 2020
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/47/eabb7232
After Paris!
Kerry: Paris climate deal alone ‘is not enough’
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Nov 24, 2020
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/527391-kerry-paris-alone-is-not-enough
“Kerry, officially a presidential envoy on climate change, will sit on the National Security Council.
“Biden reiterated that he will name a White House climate policy coordinator next month who will ‘lead efforts here in the U.S. to combat the climate crisis and mobilize action to meet this existential threat.’”
John Kerry, who signed Paris accord for US, is Biden’s climate envoy
By Issam Ahmed, Washington (AFP) Nov 24, 2020
Trump slams global climate agreement Biden intends to rejoin
By Deb Riechmann and Aya Batrawy, AP, Nov 22, 2020
“India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, said ‘climate change must be fought not in silos, but in an integrated, comprehensive and holistic way.’”
[SEPP Comment: India and China want others to go first.]
Change in US Administrations
John Kerry, a Tall Climate Envoy
By Myron Ebell, CEI, Nov 25, 2020
https://cei.org/blog/john-kerry-a-tall-climate-envoy/
[SEPP Comment: Bringing up Mr. Kerry’s lack of understanding of the greenhouse effect that has been studied for over 150 years and yet there is no simple explanation that can be reduced to a few equations.]
Beware green appeasement: John Kerry & China’s price for climate promises
Editorial, WSJ, Via GWPF. Nov 24, 2020
Facebook is reportedly planning to woo Joe Biden by rolling out new vaccine and climate change features
By Isobel Asher Hamilton, Business Insider, Nov 23, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
Biden names John Kerry as ‘climate czar’ in new administration
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Nov 23, 2020
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/527189-biden-selects-john-kerry-for-climate-czar
“Last year he founded World War Zero, a climate initiative to unite ‘unlikely allies with one common mission: making the world respond to the climate crisis the same way we mobilized to win World War II.’”
Biden taps John Kerry as Presidential climate envoy – Expect merging of COVID & Climate
Kerry: ‘You could just as easily replace the words climate change with COVID-19’
Marc Morano: “Former Sec. of State John Kerry is poised to merge ‘climate change’ with COVID-19. Climate and COVID are intertwined in Kerry’s worldview and he will be eager to hitch up the climate ‘solutions’ to the COVID remedies. Expect COVID lockdowns to morph into climate lockdowns.”
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Nov 23, 2020
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Not making it easy
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 25, 2020
“Recently the UN released a deeply flawed report on the supposed increase in climate-related disasters, based on an elementary statistical error.”
“What’s hard is continuing to insist that they are genuinely mistaken and not in fact deliberately lying. Which we persist in doing anyway, on the grounds that misplaced sincerity is a far more dangerous force in human affairs than deliberate deceit.”
Europe’s Green Deal in limbo as EU faces existential crisis
By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Nov 27, 2020
Greenhouse gas levels at new high, despite Covid-19 measures
By Nina Larson, Geneva (AFP) Nov 23, 2020
Germany’s climate consensus cracks as costs mount
By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Nov 22, 2020
Seeking a Common Ground
The HITRAN Database
By Staff, HITRAN online, Accessed Nov 27, 2020
Giving Thanks … for Human Ingenuity
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 25, 2020
Five rules for evidence communication
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 21, 2020
Five rules for evidence communication [full text]
Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.
By Michael Blastland, Alexandra L. J. Freeman, Sander van der Linden, Theresa M. Marteau & David Spiegelhalter, Nature, Nov 18, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03189-1
Science, Policy, and Evidence
European Car Sales Rebound Falters, Outlook Remains Muted
By Rimmi Singhi, Nasdaq, Nov 24, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/european-car-sales-rebound-falters-outlook-remains-muted-2020-11-24
“The European Commission expects the second wave of the virus to shrink the economy by 7.4% within year-end. Moreover, GDP contraction forecasts across Europe are quite uneven. European Commission expects GDP of Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom to contract 5.6%, 12.4% and 10.3%, respectively, in 2020.”
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Investigating the Major Factors of Wheat Production in India over the Past Four Decades
Gahlot, S., Lin, T.-S., Jain, A.K., Roy, S.B., Sehgal, V.K. and Dhakar, R. 2020. Impact of environmental changes and land management practices on wheat production in India. Earth System Dynamics 11: 641-652. Nov 25, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a11.php
“In light of the above, it would appear that wheat production in India will continue to benefit from rising atmospheric CO2 and land management practices in the future. And by selecting more heat-tolerant cultivars, production should increase even more, allowing this highly populated country to meet its wheat production needs in the years and decades to come.”
A Solar-Climate Link in Arid Central Asia
Huang, C., Rao, Z., Li, Y., Yang, W., Liu, L., Zhang, X. and Wu, Y. 2020. Holocene summer temperature in arid central Asia linked to millennial-scale North Atlantic climate events and driven by centennial-scale solar activity. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 556: 109880, doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2020.109880. Nov 23, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a10.php
Models v. Observations
On the beach
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 25, 2020
“So as always, let’s combine a sober assessment of the problem with a sensible solution. Among the major drawbacks of climate alarmism is that, in part by relying on computer models that simply assume what they set out to prove, it diverts far too much time, energy and money to ‘stopping climate change’ which is neither possible nor desirable, and away from mitigating any really undesirable impacts of it at acceptable cost while also giving sustained attention to other environmental problems from smog to plastic in the oceans that are both real and manageable.”
Measurement Issues — Surface
The U.S. National Temperature Index, is it based on data? Or corrections?
By Andy May, WUWT, Nov 24, 2020
Changing Weather
An Important Finding about the September Labor Day Wildfires
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 23, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/11/an-important-finding-about-september.html
“So, the whole situation is ironic and interesting: record cold to the east brought record fires to the west.”
Changing Climate
Past Climate More Complex Than Previously Thought, Says Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 22, 2020
Link to paper: Interglacials of the Quaternary defined by northern hemispheric land ice distribution outside of Greenland
By Peter Köhler & Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Nature Communications, Oct 12, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18897-5
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Polar bear habitat update for late November
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 25, 2020
Changing Earth
Ancient Earth had a thick, toxic atmosphere like Venus – until it cooled off and became liveable
By Antony Burnham and Hugh O’Neill, Canberra, Australia (The Conversation), Nov 27, 2020
New Study Finds CO2 Reached 1980s-2000s Levels About 4,000 Years Ago In Japan
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 23, 2020
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Climate change and ‘atmospheric thirst’ to increase fire danger and drought in NV and CA
By Staff Writers, Reno NV (SPX), Nov 22, 2020
Link to paper: Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration in California and Nevada: Implications for Drought and Wildland Fire Danger
By Daniel J. McEvoy, Earth’s Future, Oct 29, 2020
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001736
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
The Great American Outdoors Act
By Duggan Flanakin, WUWT, Nov 25, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Have a cool one
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 25, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/25/have-a-cool-one/
Arctic animals’ movement patterns are shifting in different ways as the climate changes
By Sofie Bates, Pasadena CA (JPL), Nov 22, 2020
“But, overall, predator species seemed to respond to climate change differently than prey species. That causes a mismatch between predators and the prey they hunt for food. To determine the impacts of this mismatch, researchers will need to continue monitoring these populations.”
[SEPP Comment: In the past when caribou migrations shifted for reason unknown, Inuits who relied on caribou starved. Now it’s climate change?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Radical activists ask Joe Biden to suspend rights, declare a ‘climate emergency’
By Staff, Bloomberg Green, Via GWPF, Nov 25, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/lockdown-forever-radical-activists-ask-biden-to-declare-climate-emergency/
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
German Think Tank: Climate Deniers are Holding Back Climate Action
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 24, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Are they deniers because they demand physical evidence that climate action is needed?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
ARD German Public Broadcasting Volunteers Are 92% Socialist, Communist Or Green. One-Sided Reporting
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 25, 2020
Guardian Plug Greenland “Climate Crisis” Film
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 26, 2020
“It is interesting to note actually that none of the interviewees seemed think the warming since the colder interlude is actually a bad thing. Indeed, it is a positive boon for the fisherman who can take his boat out for longer in the year.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Italian Covid-19 Lockdown Businesses Threaten a Tax Strike
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 26, 2020
Expanding the Orthodoxy
US climate envoy John Kerry warns China: ‘Paris agreement is not enough’
By Benny Peiser, GWPF, Nov 25, 2020
Questioning European Green
Ten reasons why Boris’s green agenda is just plain wrong
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Nov 22, 2020
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/boris-s-green-agenda-is-just-plain-wrong/
“Boris, this is not the way to the promised land, especially when the government is borrowing £300 billion because of covid. High-cost electricity will prevent the United Kingdom making a success of Brexit. It will bankrupt us in the short run, make us less competitive in the long run and not cut emissions much anyway.”
Coal Outperforms Wind Power In UK Wind Week!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 27, 2020
“Sat under an anticyclone, Britain’s contribution from wind power since yesterday has been less than 1GW, around 2% of the total electricity generated. This situation is expected to last a few more days yet.”
It’s The Poor Who Will Pay
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 24, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/24/its-the-poor-who-will-pay/
New report questions government’s 2030 ban
With backing from manufacturers, the document proposes different methods to ensure transport becomes carbon-neutral
By Piers Ward, Autocar, Nov 27, 2020
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/new-report-questions-governments-2030-ban
Motorists face £700 billion bill for going electric
News Release, GWPF, Nov 27, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/motorists-face-700-billion-bill-for-going-electric/
Link to: “Cost of Decarbonising Cars”
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, Nov 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/content/uploads/2020/11/Cost-Decarbonising-Cars-4.pdf
This green fantasy will bankrupt us
By Neil Collins, His Blog, Nov 20, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://neilcollinsxxx.wordpress.com/2020/11/20/this-green-fantasy-will-bankrupt-us/
Questioning Green Elsewhere
India expresses concern over EU’s Green Deal, possible carbon taxes
By Amiti Sen, The Hindu, Nov 18, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
“India, the US and a few other countries have expressed apprehensions over the European Green Deal and the impact of carbon border taxes that could be imposed on imports once the proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is implemented.”
Green Jobs
Britons to subsidise £billions for green jobs abroad as wind power contracts go overseas
By Staff, The Construction Index plus GWPF, Nov 26, 2020
“As a result approximately 260,000 tonnes of steelwork for first two phases of the Dogger Bank offshore wind farm project in England will be produced in Smulders’ facilities in Poland and Belgium.”
Boris Johnson’s green jobs for China
By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Nov 23, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/boris-johnsons-green-jobs-for-china/
“Britain is forecast to miss out on more than half of the £50 billion investment in building offshore wind farms in its waters this decade, with the majority of orders for turbines and other equipment expected to go to factories and suppliers overseas.”
“Only 29 per cent of the capital investment in recent projects has been in the UK.”
Funding Issues
Central Banks And Climate: A Case Of Mission Creep
By John H. Cochrane, Hoover Institution, Nov 13, 2020 [H/t Paul Homewood]
“Central banks must be competent, trusted, narrow, independent, and boring. A good strategy review will refocus central banks on their core narrow mission and let the other institutions of society address big political causes. Boring as that may be.”
Spending review ‘undermines UK green vision’
By Roger Harrabin, BBC, Nov 25, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55077760
“The UK chancellor’s Spending Review has been accused of undermining the prime minister’s ‘green’ vision by pushing ahead with a £27bn roads programme.”
[SEPP Comment: Apparently the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer believes the country should build what it needs, not what the Prime Minister dreams.]
Spending review ‘undermines UK green vision’-Harrabin
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 26, 2020
“But it is really just fiddling around at the edges. If we are going to do all of the things needed for Net Zero – electrification of transport and heat, roll out of hydrogen, energy efficiency, expansion of renewable energy, upgrading the electricity grids and so on – the cost will run into hundreds of billions and maybe even more.
“Sooner or later, someone will have to pick up the bill.”
See link immediately above.
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Motorway speed limits cut to 60 mph in bid to reduce carbon emissions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 26, 2020
Energy Issues – Non-US
Climate pledge on gas boilers for 2023 ‘vanishes’
By Roger Harrabin, BBC News, Nov 21, 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55020558
[SEPP Comment: Is the UK Prime Minister waking up from his dreams?]
Heat Pump Update.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 22, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/22/heat-pump-update/
“In a much milder climate, heat pumps might make more sense. But in Britain they are pretty useless for anybody who is on the gas grid.”
Desperate Venezuelans Attempt To Refine Gasoline At Home
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Nov 19, 2020
“After stealing crude from idled fields, Venezuelans then try to process it into fuel with makeshift refining tools, and the resulting gasoline is low-quality and damaging to car engines.”
[SEPP Comment: Not to say health issues!]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Yergin’s ‘The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations’ (some quotations)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 23, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/yergin/yergin-the-new-map-2020/
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Dozens of oil and gas companies agree to methane reduction targets
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 23, 2020
“A group of 62 mostly European oil and gas companies have agreed to both report their emissions of methane to a United Nations-linked group and to targeted reductions for methane emissions.”
Nuclear Energy and Fears
For Nuclear Energy To Flourish, We Need A ‘Mindset Reversal’ About Radiation
By Robert Bryce, Forbes, Nov 24, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Cultural motivations for wind and solar renewables deployment
By Andy West, Climate Etc. Nov 19, 2020
1.35 Million Tonnes of “Hazardous Material”, Germany Admits No Plan To Recycle Used Wind Turbine Blades
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 21, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Future Energy Scenarios & Peak Demand
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 27, 2020
“Consumer Transformation naturally has the highest demand. System Transformation assumes a massive rollout of hydrogen, both for heating and transport. Leading The Way assumes everybody cuts their energy consumption to a minimum, and Steady Progression says we decarbonise very slowly.
“The FES assumes that petrol/diesel cars will be banned from 2035 in the Consumer scenario. As we know that has now been brought forward. We could therefore find that peak demand could hit 80GW by the mid-2030s.
“Bearing in mind that we would need more capacity to allow for de-rating, that would require at least 100GW of firm, dispatchable capacity by then. Once all of the coal power stations have closed, we will be lucky to have half that much.”
Electric Car Charging–A Dose Of Reality
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 25, 2020
“It is hard to see much money left over for local chargers. A million 50KW chargers, which is probably the minimum we would need, would cost at least £20bn, even before we count the cost of digging up roads and upgrading power cables.
“Who will pay for that?”
Fast-charging can damage electric car batteries in just 25 cycles
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 26, 2020
Electric Car’s Carbon Footprint Criticised In New Report.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 27, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Due to the high CO2 emissions at manufacturing, an electric car needs to be driven 48,000 miles before total carbon dioxide emissions equal that of an internal combustion engine? Unable to link to the Telegraph article or report.]
One in three motorists cannot afford even the cheapest electric car, warn experts in blow to Government plans to ban petrol and diesel cars by 2030
By Tom Payne, Daily Mail, Nov 20, 2020 [GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Green dreamers don’t care.]
Oh Mann!
Refutation of Michael Mann’s latest statistical shenanigans
By Staff, GWPF, Nov 27, 2020
Link to paper: Internal Multidecadal and Interdecadal Climate Oscillations: Absence of Evidence Is No Evidence of Absence
By Gisela Müller-Plath, Frontiers in Earth Science, Nov 26, 2020
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.559337/full
Other Scientific News
Fossils purported to be world’s earliest animals revealed as algae
By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), Nov 23, 2020
Historical bias overlooks genes related to COVID-19
Genes studied based on ease of experimentation rather than relevance to disease
News Release, Northwestern University, Nov 24, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/nu-hbo111720.php
“‘The bias to study the exact same human genes is very high,’ Amaral said. ‘The entire system is fighting the very purpose of the agencies and scientific knowledge, which is to broaden the set of things we study and understand. We need to make a concerted effort to incentivize the study of other genes important to human health.’”
Temper your excitement about the Covid vaccine
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Nov 14, 2020
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/temper-your-excitement-about-the-covid-vaccine/
Other News that May Be of Interest
WMO: “impact of the COVID-19 confinements [on CO2] cannot be distinguished from natural variability”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 24, 2020
Christmas week: Worlds will align for spectacular heavenly sight
By Jade Boyd for Rice News, Houston TX (SPX), Nov 20, 2020
Scores of pilot whales dead in New Zealand stranding
By Staff Writers, Wellington (AFP), Nov 25, 2020
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scores_of_pilot_whales_dead_in_New_Zealand_stranding_999.html
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
£2.5M Wasted On Solar Powered Railway
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 23, 2020
[SEPP Comment: For those who wish to ride sunbeams!]
Dimming Sun’s rays could ease climate impacts in Africa
By Marlowe Hood, Phys.org, Nov 24, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2020-11-dimming-sun-rays-ease-climate.html
“Environmental Research Letters is an open-access electronic-only peer-reviewed scientific journal covering research in all aspects of environmental science. Numerical modelling or simulation, as well as theoretical and experimental approaches to environmental science form the core content. Approaches from a range of physical and natural sciences, economics, and political, sociological and legal studies are also present. The editor-in-chief is Daniel Kammen (University of California, Berkeley). According to the Journal Citation Reports, the journal has a 2010 impact factor of 3.049.” [Boldface added]
https://phys.org/journals/environmental-research-letters/
[SEPP Comment: Real Acid Rain anyone? Sulfuric acid to save Africa?]
El mar contaminado
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 25, 2020
“We shall see. (ClimateChangePost also says ‘At the end of the century sea level rise is estimated to be 0,5-1 m.’ So after doubling in the next decade or so it will double again. Unless it doesn’t.)”
Republican State Legislatures are Positively Correlated with Obesity, Democrat Legislatures with Death from #Coronavirus
By David Stienmier, WUWT, Nov 23, 2020
Video: Don’t let the “Climate Grinches” ruin your holiday
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 25, 2020
ARTICLES
When the Experts Fail, Everyone Else Pays the Price
What happens when the most respected authorities get it wrong and ruin lives and economies? Not much.
By David Mamet, WSJ, Nov 27, 2020
TWTW Summary: the playwright, film director, and screenwriter writes:
“The wealthy and powerful must constantly expand their operations. But even if they let their capital sit, they will need accountants, auditors, stockbrokers and consultants. How will they choose these subordinates? According to the opinions of other advisers. Those closest to the boss will have the most influence—and they can keep it, even in failure, by flattery and deference.
“This is the case with governmental power. We are all, in a sense, fools, since no one person can know everything. We all have to trust others for their expertise, and we all make mistakes. The horror of a command economy is not that officials will make mistakes, but that those mistakes will never be acknowledged or corrected.
“What about our allegedly market economy? Who will be held accountable for destroying it? No doubt the destruction was carried out in good faith, but the shutdown didn’t accomplish what it was supposed to accomplish.
“We have seen shameless incompetence rewarded before.
“Consider Prof. Frederick Lindemann, a close adviser to Winston Churchill during World War II. He treasured his access to the prime minister. Experts couldn’t get near Churchill unless they came through Lindemann. He feuded with everybody he perceived to be a threat, and was especially threatened by Sir Henry Tizard, who helped to develop radar, one of the most useful tools in the war effort. Naturally Lindemann mocked it. Later, Lindemann dismissed the possibility that the Germans were developing a liquid-fueled rocket capable of bombing London—the V-2.
“Lindemann was feted and honored to the end of his days.
“Or consider Joseph Stalin’s science adviser, Trofim Lysenko. He, too, had complete access to the boss. He believed that plants, like good Communists, could be educated—that peas and wheat could be trained to grow in winter. The Soviet ministry of agriculture, acting on Lysenko’s bogus theories, managed to ruin crops all over Eurasia and starve as many as 10 million people. Later his ideas influenced agriculture policy in Mao’s China and killed several million more.
“Lysenko was a talented flatterer. He outlived Stalin and Nikita Khrushchev, dying peacefully in 1976.
“Now we have climate change and its attendant alarmists. In 2001 a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted a recent study claiming that the Earth’s temperature had risen dramatically during the period coincident with the introduction of fossil fuels—the famous ‘hockey stick graph.’ The news media, backed by those parts of the ‘scientific community’ the media chose to honor, presented this analysis as though it were indisputable fact. In fact, it was riddled with problems. That would have been fine—no harm done—except that the American left, and the running dogs in education and the press, saw the fear occasioned by the hockey stick as an opportunity. No correction was forthcoming.
“Most recently we have Covid-19. The New England Journal of Medicine reports that masks are useless outside health-care facilities, that there is little possibility of catching the virus from a ‘passing interaction in a public place.’ Happy news, save that they, one week later, issued a squishy semiretraction, saying, in effect, ‘It couldn’t hurt.’
“What could the shutdown hurt? A pandemic was allowed to destroy the American economy. Tens of millions are driven out of work, cover their faces, and walk down the streets in fear of their neighbors.’
The author discusses the problems in serving people in a restaurant, then concludes”
“The virus here is government—or at least the incompetents who advise our rulers and cannot admit the legitimacy of dissension. Absent intervention, this virus may eventually kill the host organism.”
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclination, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
He was right, of course. But the reporting of facts is a different matter altogether. The easiest way to deceive is to not report at all. Just don’t mention that the walrusses were hearded by the bears, just don’t mention that although the world may be warmer than a century ago, it certainly is not compared with 8000 yesrs ago. Ample scope for lying by omission.
Just don’t mention walrus usually haul out on floating ice over shallow water – and that increasingly there isn’t any, from earlier and earlier in the season, so the haul out on land instead, sometimes with negative consequences.
Just don’t mention that griff lies when he claims that walrus’s usually haul out on floating ice.
griff are you posting here because fewer readers get into the comments on this long weekly article, so you don’t get as much flak? Or do you get paid by the number of comments, or have a quota to meet, so the actual viewership isn’t important?
Solar activity is picking up. SC25 is underway in the earnest
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/SSN-3-minima.htm
The early 21st century’s minimum fell short of either one at the early 19th or the early 20th century.
re. step functions. In the last few decades, strong El Ninos seem to have outnumbered strong La Ninas. If we get a particularly strong La Nina, is it possible that we will see a step down?
Interesting times … We’re in a La Nina that’s deeper than we’ve seen for a while, meantime the temperature north of 80° has been anomalously warm since the end of the melt season. link So, does this mean we’re in for a spell of weird weather?
Unusual November snow and ice in Madeira
https://www.madeiraislandnews.com/2020/11/wind-snow-and-waves-up-to-10-metres.html
and in Algeria
https://twitter.com/radioalgerie/status/1330898433964728322
This was stated clearly by Neil Ferguson in the infamous Imperial College homework assignment that panicked the Western World. What is important by way of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is to lessen probability of transmission, and foremost would be to avoid high probability circumstances. But almost no one can calculate probability or understands statistical inference; most public health officials can’t do much more than calculate an average. Thus, we depend upon rules that are contradictory (3 ft or 6ft, or more?), illogical (making automobile social distance in a parking lot), and not backed up by any science, all the while yelping about science. And what is worse, one should be able to look at the rapid spread in many places with very hard mandates, and contemplate that the mandates have no effect. Yet, the less evidence there is, the more sure we are. Woe is us.
but spending 15 mins or more inside in close proximity/maskless, especially if shouting or singing and/or face to face, is highly effective at transmitting the virus
Example: Thanksgiving dinner
Only you would spend a Thankgiving dinner getting in people’s faces and shouting.
Someone has to be contagious first, or didn’t that occur to you.
“The UK has halved the carbon intensity of its electricity system over the past decade, decarbonising twice as fast as any other major economy, according to figures contained in a new report from Drax Insights.
The switch has been powered principally by the UK’s move away from coal to renewable energy sources such as wind and biomass according to the the analysis, which was conducted by academics from Imperial College London.
Renewable power generation has grown six-fold in the UK over the past decade, while output from coal power plants fell from 30 per cent to just two per cent of the electricity mix over the timeframe, helping the UK cut the carbon intensity of its power by 58 per cent. The performance represents double the reduction seen in other major economies over the same period, according to the report
The latest edition of Drax’s Electric Insights Quarterly, which launched four years ago, also details how the transformation of the UK’s power sources means British households have each reduced their CO2 emissions by three quarters of a tonne per year since the start of the decade”
UK is still contributing way more plant nutrition per capita than Greenland:
UK 5.55 ton
Greenland 0.03 ton
Ref.: https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-country/
So Griff, hope you will inform us when you reach the Greenland level and tell us how your life is going on.
The UK is on a high risk strategy. Germany has increased renewable/unreliables of its grid whilst maintaining traditional sources of generation. 2002 installed 115GW, 2020 installed 214GW. Unreliables have gone from 12GW to 115GW accounting for virtually all the difference. Peak demand in 2010 (can’t go back further) 86GW, 2020 84GW so no real change in a decade. So I would say that Germany is taking a low risk approach when compared to the UK.
However this comes at a cost, the most expensive electricity in Europe. over 0.3€ per kWh, UK 0.25€ , France 0.2€
Meanwhile energy costs have sky rocketed to the point where some seniors have to choose between eating and heating.
At the same time reliability of electricity has been plummeting.
But who cares, we have pockets to line with other people’s money.
There seems to be one aspect of greenhouse not mcuh discussed. Please point out an explanation if I’m missing it or misunderstanding something. Any mentipn of molecules in the following means a IR absorbing-emitting molecule.
While discussions generally revolve around the bulk effect of these gases in the atmosphere, the basic parts of the process involve individual IR photons and individual molecules. I’ve seen a variety of calculations of how long the average IR photon is delayed by each greenhouse gas molecule it interacts with. 2 milliseconds is the value I’ve seen most often,
Then there is the mean path of the photon between interactions, and the fact that the emission can be in any direction, by which people attempt to calculate the probable time the average photon is likely to remain in the atmosphere. Most IR photons are absorbed and emitted a number of times, by different molecules, as they travels through the atmosphere.
As more molecules of CO2, etc. are added, the distance between such molecules must decrease. This, it seems to me, has to result in more interactions per photon, which means an increase in the average time in the atmosphere for any given photon. Unless these photons trapped in the molecular bonds of H2O, CO2, and other multi-atom gases, do not produce heat, if additional molecules are added to the atmosphere, the atmospheric temperature should continue to increase as long as the sun delivers energy.
This should be true even though the input rate of energy from the sun remains constant. A given increase in atmospheric temperature may indeed require a doubling of CO2, thus the temperature increase becomes slower and slower over the time if the absorbing molecules are added at a constant rate, but if more molecules are added, the temperature increase would have to continue.
It might be that any molecularly thin layer of atmosphere may be incapable of absorbing any more photons (is saturated?), because it already absorbs all the photons that reach it, and it may also be true that each similar layer of the atmosphere, going upward, would be a little less effective because the distance between molecules increases with altitude, but the energy retaining effect must necessarily continue to increase as the number of such molecules increases.
If there is an error in this logic, I would appreciate having it pointed out so I might gain a better understanding. Replies based on an idea the such gases do not absorb and emit photons, or that such absorption has no effect, are unlikely to be enlightening unless there is an explanation of why at the molecule/photon level.
Radiative gasses are important to Earth’s energy balance in producing Convective Available Potential Energy in the atmosphere above tropical waters. The resulting cloudburst creates dense, highly reflective clouds that block sunlight:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3qPDHvnq-L6w5-5
The cloud can be so dense and reflective that the water beneath them cools. The reflected energy increases dramatically above 27C.
Around 28.5C, the reflected energy is so great that the net energy begins to fall:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3vzCCr-yZNwAEVd
Despite the radiating power for OLR declining slightly from clear sky.
This powerful negative feedback operates as a thermostat to limit the SST maximum to 32C. The SST of the tropical oceans has zero trend in the past 40 years:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3j-MHBpf4wRGuhf
The “Greenhouse Effect” is a fairy tale dreamt up by incompetents for digestion by the gullible.
Yes Griff and a recent survey finds that nearly a third of people in the UK will try to ration their heating in the coming winter in order to keep costs down whilst 29% of households say they are probably not in a position to be able to meet the costs of higher energy bills arising from the use of unreliables.