Guest Survey by Kip Hansen – 17 November 2020
When I am puzzled by something, I try to find out what’s really going on. Years ago, I wrote “What Are They Really Counting?”. The lessons in that essay are even more important today than they were when I penned it at the end of 2015. Many governments of the world have largely shut down their economies and issued edicts restricting the normal every-day activities of their citizens because of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the illness it causes – Covid-19. We are bombarded in the media with screaming headlines of “rising cases” like this:
The curious thing is that among all my family, friends, acquaintances and colleagues, I know of only two people who have been sick with/from (or even suspected) Covid-19 during the entire pandemic period. My wife has one extended family member who was sick, hospitalized for 24 hours out of extreme caution, in Spain. No one I ask knows anyone who is sick with/from Covid-19.
For those of you with little time or no patience:
[if that does not work, click here to take the survey]
There is one exception, we have a friend with a daughter who is a nurse in a dedicated Covid-ward in a local hospital. There have been some sick Covid-19 patients there. Some have even died:
This graph shows the daily Covid-19 deaths for my local county. There have been 87 deaths in the county with Covid-19 mentioned in any way on the death certificate. Since June 2020, there have been only 8 deaths from/with Covid. With a population of about 180,000. This gives my county an approximate generalized death rate of 48.3/100,000. Even if Covid-deaths continue at the current rate and rise to 105 by the end of the year – our annual country-wide Covid-death rate would be only 58/100,000. New York State as a whole has a Covid-death rate of 175/100,000. The death rate of NY State is over 3.6 times higher than in my county. For comparison, the annual death rate from cancers, nationally, is about 160/100,000.
Our local NPR station out of Albany, NY, which I will call “WDNC” for obvious reasons, read letters in today’s “Round Table” program from several readers, all of whom claimed that they didn’t know anyone who had been or was presently sick with Covid-19, however, they were sure that the apparent-President-elect would do the right thing by issuing orders for every citizen to “wear a mask”.
Previous to this, I thought it might be a quirk that among my friends and acquaintances, my family, my county that there weren’t any/many sick people. However, emailing a friend in Portugal revealed that she too didn’t know any sick people, but had heard that there were some in Texas. During a rather unpleasant visit to my dentist earlier today, neither the dentist or any or his staff knew anyone who had been or was sick with Covid-19.
My father was a doctor, I come from a medical family, I studied Pre-Med originally before switching majors, several times. I did humanitarian work in a third-world country where the threats of malaria, dengue and yellow fever were real everyday worries. I know there must be sick people – there are people dying, after all. A lot of people dying, seemingly, but . . . . Total Deaths in the U.S. are not higher than normal for this time of year, despite Covid 19 according to CDC mortality figures. (To see Total Deaths, you must download the .csv file from the GREEN LINK near the top of the page.) The CDC figures for New York State show the same thing – Total Deaths are running even with previous years – despite Covid-19. (Same link – select State instead of the default National. The .csv file is by week, so compare previous years by week numbers. Note: The most current weeks will be incorrect – too low — not fully reported yet – back at least three weeks.)
So, just to try to get a handle on the actuality of the Covid-19 pandemic, as experienced in the real world by readers here, I have created this little three-question survey – I will publish the results here once there are enough participants or in a week, which comes first.
[if that does not work, click here to take the survey]
The survey is only three questions, with dropdowns for your numerical answers. Very quick and easy. If you wish to contribute personal or local information, or anecdotes, use the comment section.
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Author’s Comment:
Covid-19 is not a hoax. It is not a fantasy. It is not simply made up.
However, the responses of our governments, in the United States, and in many other countries around the world have been far more harmful that the pandemic itself. History will replete with books recounting the horrors caused by the worldwide Covid Pandemic Panic.
One of the first to hit the stands is: “The Price of Panic : How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic Into a Catastrophe” by Jay W. Richards, William M. Briggs and Douglas Axe. Available in hardback, e-book editions and in audible formats. I recommend it.
Keep following Watts Up With That to catch the survey results.
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10% of all obituaries published right now are COVID. How much worse do you need it to get?
Give these guys enough time and they’ll be able to convince themselves that the virus is actually saving lives. Michio Kaku said there were no parallel universes in Denver. I think he must have been wrong. They seem to be everywhere.
“Give these guys enough time and they’ll be able to convince themselves that the virus is actually saving lives.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/coronavirus-restrictions-cause-flu-cases-to-drop-australia/12480190
“Australia has not recorded any flu deaths since April, with only 36 deaths recorded this year compared to 430 in the same period last year”
So…yeah, it kinda does if you look at it that way…
Yep, There’s no doubt about it, you were definitely a bureaucrat. That’s messed the F*** up think right there 🙂
While I was being a bit sarcastic as I’ve seen 30 years of over-managed, “fill this out in quadruplicate”, government waste close up…the question is about how to count things fairly.
You know the “if it saves one life” crowd, right? They’ll look at one number when they’ve implemented something they believe in…and ignore the rest of the data.
Just posted an article about hear attacks in Colorado during the lockdowns. Guess what? They went DOWN, or at least the “made it to the hospital” number. The “died at home because they were afraid to go to the hospital” went UP.
Cancer treatments being delayed are another issue. Etc.
So, yeah, I think its worth it to look at the flu numbers. Dead is dead, right? We know that most of the COVID19 victims would be flu victims in a bad season – with the added “bonus” that more of them would be younger, as COVID19 so far hasn’t affected under 18s much at all.
My daughter is a nurse in Denver. We have almost reached max ICU capacity in all hospitals and are close in others. Getting ready to deploy the Convention Center and other venues. This is no joke, folks. All our positivity rates are over 15% now. As a retired tourism and hospitality guy (now a Middle School Science Teacher) I feel for the restaurant and gym owners, but we have to consider shutting these down.
Walked into a place the other night that was supposed to be at 50% capacity. Packed. Large parties, no masks. Darwinian.
Are you sure that wasn’t a Biden victory party? Or a BLM protest? Or politicians meeting with donors (with health officials present as well?) Or politicians flying from mainland US to Maui (happened THIS WEEK?).
Those things are all ok, and clearly won’t spread the virus. Don’t you know, only protests against lockdowns, Trump rallies, or republican politicians going anywhere are huge virus spreaders. I’d add a /sarc but sadly there are actually people (in the MSM at least) that seem to think that way given the disparate way these things have been reported in the media.
Randomized controlled trials (RCT) have shown that masks do not significantly prevent transmission of influenza. A recent RCT found the same for covid.
https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1329084994820608002
Was just coming here to share – Just published it today. Here’s the study link https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817
There’s a reason that, at not other time in history, has quarantining the healthy been considered a viable option. it simply isn’t workable and does more overall harm than good. Quarantine the sick, definitely. Quarantining the most vulnerable (Ie the elderly with comorbidities) is doable and probably not a bad thing (certainly better than sending COVID patients in among them). Quarantine the healthy? Nope. waste of time and resources.
That said, other steps that are worth doing include good hand hygiene and keeping your distance from other people as best as possible. Masks, research shows, are iffy as to their efficacy but if it makes you feel better, by all means wear them.
Walked into a place the other night that was …. Packed. Large parties, no masks
What were you doing going out to such a place (even at 50%, half a of large parties are still pretty large parties) instead of sheltering in your basement if things are as bad as you claim? Hypocrisy much. Everyone else should stop moving forward with their lives but you? Totalitarian.
The CDC tracks all deaths. The chart about halfway down the page shows a pretty accurate depiction of what is really happening.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
BTW – My wife and I both tested positive for COVID last week. For her it’s been like a normal cold PLUS she had a headache and loss of smell/taste. For me….a minor fever, stuffy nose and loss of sense of smell. I’ve had much worse colds in the past.
What kind of pandemic requires that 2 million health care workers get laid off ?
The kind that incentivizes hospitals with obscene amounts of money to treat covid patients. NY only gets $12,000 per covid patient, so I guess that’s why they had to slaughter so many nursing home residents to get the volume up.
State-by-state breakdown of federal aid per COVID-19 case
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/state-by-state-breakdown-of-federal-aid-per-covid-19-case.html
While it sounds counter intuitive, the fact is health care workers cover a large variety of disciplines, not all of which are useful for treating those stricken by a virus like COVID. How many brain surgeons or cancer specialists do COVID patients require? Pretty much none. If all your beds are being occupied or reserved for COVID patients, how many brain surgeries or cancer treatments are going to be performed? Again, pretty much none. So why would the Brain Surgeon or Cancer Specialist be kept on staff when the work they were hired to perform isn’t happening?
This is particularly true in areas of the country where all elective surgeries were cancelled to make room for treating COVID. All the staff that normally would be doing the elective surgeries suddenly had nothing in their field of expertise to do. Why would a hospital (or any other health care business) pay someone to do nothing when that money could be better utilized going towards the needs of the pandemic patients? So yes, a pandemic can require millions of health care workers get laid off because health care workers are not interchangeable, some have skills that are applicable to the pandemic (those workers have more than enough work on their hands and aren’t getting laid off) while others don’t (they’re left with nothing to do, as the skills they have aren’t needed by the pandemic patient. those are the ones getting laid off).
My 67 year old sister had the Chinese virus, with classic symptoms, this last month. Transmission vector was probably from her son, daughter-in-law, and teenage kids, as all 4 of them had it first. They live in central Wisconsin. My 65 year old brother was exposed over several hours, during an on-site review of various construction projects with my sister, but has showed no symptoms since.
I had lunch with two people last weekend, and pointedly asked one who has worked in an elderly care extended facility the entire time.
She said not one resident contracted the virus, let alone hospitalized. Two workers at the facility tested positive with very minor symptoms.
I interact with two corporations on a daily basis, one in Laurel, MD, the other in Pacoima, CA. No one in either was contracted COVID-19. The MD company is full of young go-getters in their 20s who love to party.
No one in my extended family in VT, NC, CO and OR has contracted, nor do any of them know anyone.
The survey has been taken by about 2500 people. When the total reaches 3000, I will publish an essay with results.
I read the journal of the Chinese woman scientist that collected the virus for some little furry critters that lived below a bat colony. She took it back to a bio weapons lab that international inspectors had declared unfit for purpose. It was not person friendly so they attached some parts of the HIV virus to it.
It escaped the lab infecting a lot of locals at Wuhan. Flights from Wuhan in to China were stopped, but international were allowed to go ahead spreading it far and wide.Big surprise she disappeared.
One can only conclude that the communist ruling mob did it on purpose, thus I buy nothing made in China any more.
Another story. The Christmas gathering at my sister’s on one of the Gulf Ils just got cancelled. Reason: my brother in law owns a small ‘health food’ store with lots of prepared ‘organic’ food cooked on the premises. If any Covid turns up, he will be closed and perhaps never open again, let alone the loss from closing. However all the big grocery chains are allowed to stay open.
Does cause of death really matter if you are over 70?
During this panicdemic I do know some grandmothers who have not to see their grandchildren.
The only significant common factor in death is living a long time.
When my wife died the contributing factor were listed and those were all thing old people have. What was not listed was taking our granddaughter camping two weeks before. Or sitting around a campfire with friends the night before.
It is a simple point. Please do not protect us for our own good by taking away what is good.
Kit P ==> Yes — dying matters as life expectancy around the world is in the high 70’s to low 80’s. Many of the readers here report that they are in their 70s (as am I).
For the majority dying of/with Covid-19, are already seriously ill with some “comorbidity” — so “cause of death” for the aged is seldom clear cut. These are the same old folks that influenza sweeps away each year — though Covid-19 may be a bit rougher in this age group than most flu.
I expect/hope to have another 20 years to see my grandkids grow up and contribute what I can to the world.
So in that sense, CAUSE as listed on a death certificate is seldom important. There is the IMMEDIATE CAUSE of DEATH, and UNDERLYING CAUSES and CONTRIBUTING CAUSES. It is this vagueness that is resulting in so many COVID DEATHS being reported. The CDC and other agencies are calling a death a COVID DEATH if any of the the ICD-19 codes for Covid appear on any line of the death certificate.
I will have to write about this — some people think that Covid Deaths mean that a person died as a result of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Kit P ==> For the CDC explanation of Death Certificate Cause of Death see this “Coding and classification of causes of death in accordance with the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases”
The phrase I have heard is: “Died with COVID, not because of it.”
It’s the sugar addiction, IF, metabolic syndrome, toxic government ‘nutritional guidelines.” That is the epidemic.
“So in that sense, CAUSE as listed on a death certificate is seldom important.”
Statistics can be useful if applied correctly to help us live longer.
For example the money spent on covid testing would be better spent on lots and lots of hand holds for old people.
After a safety meeting at a nuclear facility, I was discussing the statics of falls with a coworker who was also a volunteer EMT. I stated that when an old person falls and breaks a hip, it is a slow death. He replied that the hip breaks and the old person falls.
It is simple, if the root cause of a death is an accident, it can be prevented. If the root cause is getting old, then the quality of life should be considered in delaying death.
Covid is like a train wreck you can not stop watching. I travel north in the spring and south in the winter in my motorhome. At one point the governor of one state I visit said I could sleep on my sailboat but not my motorhome.
Go figure!
Since the goverment is not providing me useful rules for safely enjoying life, then I can use statics to figure it out for myself.
As mentioned earlier, the experience of the navy nuclear carrier provided enough information to know that covid was not the spanish flu. Second, I looked at the number of covid cases where I was travelling. Zero!
I did find an interesting statistic in Oregon. At the time, traffic deaths were down more than total covid deaths.
So clearly bedtimes hugs and keeping grandchildren safe are not mutually exclusive.
I was kicking the tires of a new motorhome a while back when the salesman asked if I had any questions. What is the milage? His response was, ‘if you have to ask?’
So if you have to ask, where are the sick people? The answer is always someplace else. 100% of the time when I have checked a fear mongering story , a reassuring story could be told.
Whoops … I meant “IR” which stands for insulin resistance.
My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with the girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night.
Dark Helmet: I am your father’s brother’s nephew’s cousin’s former roommate.
Lone Star: So what does that make us?
Dark Helmet: Absolutely nothing.
I know no one who has tested positive. I know no one who has died. Our county has 340000. 130 deaths. And a 21 year motorcycle victim counted as a Covid death since having tested positive. Yes, Covid is for real. But so are many many other things.
Overview
According to the latest immunological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1% to 0.3% and thus in the range of a severe influenza (flu).
For people at high risk or high exposure (including health care workers), early or prophylactic treatment is essential to prevent progression of the disease.
In countries like the US, the UK, and also Sweden (without a lockdown), overall mortality since the beginning of the year is in the range of a strong influenza season; in countries like Germany and Switzerland, overall mortality so far is in the range of a mild influenza season.
In most places, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.
Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. About 95% of all people develop at most moderate symptoms.
Up to 60% of all persons may already have a certain cellular background immunity to the new coronavirus due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. cold viruses). The initial assumption that there was no immunity against the new coronavirus was not correct.
The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years (e.g. 86 years in Sweden) and only about 4% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.
In many countries, up to two thirds of all extra deaths occurred in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid-19 or from weeks of extreme stress and isolation.
Up to 30% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid-19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.
Even in so-called “Covid-19 deaths” it is often not clear whether they died from or with coronavirus (i.e. from underlying diseases) or if they were counted as “presumed cases” and not tested at all. However, official figures usually do not reflect this distinction.
Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid-19 turned out to be false: many of these young people either did not die from Covid-19, they had already been seriously ill (e.g. from undiagnosed leukaemia), or they were in fact 109 instead of 9 years old. The claimed increase in Kawasaki disease in children also turned out to be exaggerated.
Most Covid-19 symptoms can also be caused by severe influenza (including pneumonia, thrombosis and the temporary loss of the sense of smell), but with severe Covid-19 these symptoms are indeed more frequent and more pronounced.
Strong increases in regional mortality can occur if there is a collapse in the care of the elderly and sick as a result of infection or panic, or if there are additional risk factors such as severe air pollution. Questionable regulations for dealing with the deceased sometimes led to additional bottlenecks in funeral or cremation services.
In countries such as Italy and Spain, and to some extent the UK and the US, hospital overloads due to strong flu waves are not unusual. Moreover, this year up to 15% of health care workers were put into quarantine, even if they developed no symptoms.
The often shown exponential curves of “corona cases” are misleading, as the number of tests also increased exponentially. In most countries, the ratio of positive tests to tests overall (i.e. the positivity rate) remained constant at 5% to 20% or increased only slightly. In many countries, the peak of the spread was already reached well before the lockdown.
Countries without lockdowns, such as Japan, South Korea, Belarus and Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than many other countries. Sweden was even praised by the WHO and now benefits from higher immunity compared to lockdown countries. 75% of Swedish deaths happened in nursing facilities that weren’t protected fast enough.
The fear of a shortage of ventilators was unjustified. According to lung specialists, the invasive ventilation (intubation) of Covid-19 patients, which is partly done out of fear of spreading the virus, is in fact often counterproductive and damaging to the lungs.
Various studies have shown that the main routes of transmission of the virus are neither long-range aerosols (i.e. tiny particles floating in the air) nor smear infections (i.e. on surfaces), but direct contact and droplets produced when talking or coughing. However, in some circumstances, indoor aerosol transmission appears to be possible.
There is still little to no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of cloth face masks in healthy and asymptomatic individuals. Experts warn that such masks may interfere with normal breathing and may become “germ carriers” if used repeatedly.
Many clinics in Europe and the US remained strongly underutilized or almost empty during lockdowns and in some cases had to send staff home. Millions of surgeries and therapies were cancelled, including many cancer screenings and organ transplants.
Several media were caught trying to dramatize the situation in hospitals, sometimes even with manipulative images and videos. In general, the unprofessional reporting of many media maximized fear and panic in the population.
The virus test kits used internationally are prone to errors and can produce false positive and false negative results. Moreover, the official virus test was not clinically validated due to time pressure and may sometimes react positive to other common coronaviruses.
Numerous internationally renowned experts in the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology consider the measures taken to be counterproductive and recommend rapid natural immunization of the general population and protection of risk groups.
At no time was there a medical reason for the closure of schools, as the risk of disease and transmission in children is extremely low. There is also no medical reason for small classes, masks or ‘social distancing’ rules in schools.
Several medical experts described express coronavirus vaccines as unnecessary or even dangerous. Indeed, the vaccine against the so-called swine flu of 2009, for example, led to cases of severe neurological damage and lawsuits in the millions. In the testing of new coronavirus vaccines, too, serious complications and failures have already been reported.
A global respiratory disease pandemic can indeed extend over several seasons, but many studies of a “second wave” are based on very unrealistic assumptions, such as a constant risk of illness and death across all age groups.
In several places, nurses described an oftentimes fatal medical mismanagement of Covid patients due to questionable financial incentives and inappropriate medical protocols.
The number of people suffering from unemployment, depression and domestic violence as a result of the measures has reached historic record levels. Several experts predict that the measures will claim far more lives than the virus itself. According to the UN 1.6 billion people around the world are at immediate risk of losing their livelihood.
NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the “corona crisis” may be used for the permanent expansion of global surveillance. In several parts of the world, the population is being monitored by drones and facing serious police overreach during lockdowns.
A 2019 WHO study on measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”. Nevertheless, contact tracing apps have already become partially mandatory in several countries. In some countries, such “contact tracing” is carried out directly by the secret service.
B.C. Canada where I live, the death rate of all cases is 1.3%, for all of Canada it’s 3.56%.
Seniors long term care homes account for 82% of all Canada’s covid deaths. For covid sufferers over age 65 they have a 6% chance of dying. I have an underlying illness so I may not fare well if I’m infected so I appreciate the masks and distancing by others, particularly younger people, I feel they are considerate of us others who are not fortunate enough to have perfect health and youth.
I think it’s a hoax and totally made up after eight months of first hand observation in NYC. I was born and raised here and by extension know thousands of people here, including more people who ignored the rules from day one than I can count.
They simply renamed ordinary cold and flu and killed some people on ventilators in March and April. That is what ‘covid-19’ is.
Most hospitals around here won’t give you any sort of treatment for cold flu or pneumonia anymore unless you are willing to be put on a ventilator. I heard this from an asthma patient who was refused oxygen.
Just finished reading a article on the Barrington declaration written by Jay Bhattacharya. I would nope that people would review it. After reading it to did some more research on it. I found a few articles that we’re trying to criticize. But, they did not address what he wrote. They wanted him to produce policy answers. They only wrote a protocol for handling C19. It’s up to the politicians to write how it’s implemented. I’m always amazed at ” experts” who critics offer zero solution. It also tells me that Barrington is probably the way to handle it.
The data file that downloads from the green link at the CDC website makes no sense to me. The years seem all screwed up.
Each flu season is deemed to start in week 40 of each calendar year and run into most of the next year. The file begins with week 40 of 2020 and continues with each of the weeks they have any data for during the current season. Next comes the data from the 2019-2020 season, starting at week 40 of 2019, going through the end of that year, continuing with the first week of 2020, u to the end of that season in week 39. The data then skips back a year to the beginning of the 2018-2019 season.
I’m currently positive. Me, my family, and my circle of friends all got it around the 6th of October. I’m still positive. I read a journal article where an elderly lady was actively infectious for 70 days. What do we have in common? We both have leukemia. I figured that when I became positive, that was probably it for me. I didn’t express that to anyone but that was bouncing around my mind. I didn’t start feeling bad until the middle of October. I ran a low grade fever for a couple of nights and then I was back to normal. But I’m still positive because of my leukemia. I’m not avoiding my friends and family who have recovered but I am avoiding everyone else. I’m running about 700 friends on Facebook and out of that number, I’m aware of one friend who became quite ill but has since recovered. My wife and 2 teenage boys have never been sick. None of my circle of friends became really ill. It was like a mild flu and everyone is better. So far, so good here, even with being positive since the 6th of October.
When I checked the data shortly after this post went up, Weeks 40 through 43 all showed 100% complete, with the last couple of weeks understandably incomplete. Downloading the data again two weeks later, the numbers of flu deaths and total deaths for ALL the weeks have gone up. Week 40 figures increased six weeks after the week ended.