Where Are All the Sick People?

Guest Survey by Kip Hansen – 17 November 2020

When I am puzzled by something, I try to find out what’s really going on.  Years ago, I wrote “What Are They Really Counting?”.    The lessons in that essay are even more important today than they were when I penned it at the end of 2015.  Many governments of the world have largely shut down their economies and issued edicts restricting the normal every-day activities of their citizens because of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the illness it causes – Covid-19.   We are bombarded in the media with screaming headlines of “rising cases” like this:

The curious thing is that among all my family, friends, acquaintances and colleagues, I know of only two people who have been sick with/from (or even suspected) Covid-19 during the entire pandemic period.  My wife has one extended family member who was sick, hospitalized for 24 hours out of extreme caution, in Spain.  No one I ask knows anyone who is sick with/from Covid-19. 

For those of you with little time or no patience:

[if that does not work, click here to take the survey]

There is one exception, we have a friend with a daughter who is a nurse in a dedicated Covid-ward in a local hospital.  There have been some sick Covid-19 patients there.  Some have even died:

This graph shows the daily Covid-19 deaths for my local county.  There have been 87 deaths in the county with Covid-19 mentioned in any way on the death certificate.  Since June 2020, there have been only 8 deaths from/with Covid.  With a population of about 180,000.  This gives my county an approximate generalized death rate of 48.3/100,000.   Even if Covid-deaths continue at the current rate and rise to 105 by the end of the year – our annual country-wide Covid-death rate would be only 58/100,000.   New York State as a whole has a Covid-death rate of 175/100,000.  The death rate of NY State is over 3.6 times higher than in my county.  For comparison, the annual death rate from cancers, nationally, is about 160/100,000.   

Our local NPR station out of Albany, NY, which I will call “WDNC” for obvious reasons, read letters in today’s “Round Table” program from several readers, all of whom claimed that they didn’t know anyone who had been or was presently sick with Covid-19, however, they were sure that the apparent-President-elect would do the right thing by issuing orders for every citizen to “wear a mask”.   

Previous to this, I thought it might be a quirk that among my friends and acquaintances, my family, my county that there weren’t any/many sick people.  However, emailing a friend in Portugal revealed that she too didn’t know any sick people, but had heard that there were some in Texas.  During a rather unpleasant visit to my dentist earlier today, neither the dentist or any or his staff knew anyone who had been or was sick with Covid-19.

My father was a doctor, I come from a medical family, I studied Pre-Med originally before switching majors, several times.  I did humanitarian work in a third-world country where the threats of malaria, dengue and yellow fever were real everyday worries.  I know there must be sick people – there are people dying, after all.  A lot of people dying, seemingly, but . . . . Total Deaths in the U.S. are not higher than normal for this time of year, despite Covid 19 according to CDC mortality figures.  (To see Total Deaths, you must download the .csv file from the GREEN LINK near the top of the page.)   The CDC figures for New York State show the same thing – Total Deaths are running even with previous years – despite Covid-19. (Same link – select State instead of the default National.  The .csv file is by week, so compare previous years by week numbers.  Note:  The most current weeks will be incorrect – too low — not fully reported yet – back at least three weeks.)

So, just to try to get a handle on the actuality of the Covid-19 pandemic, as experienced in the real world by readers here,  I have created this little three-question survey – I will publish the results here once there are enough participants or in a week, which comes first.

[if that does not work, click here to take the survey]

The survey is only three questions, with dropdowns for your numerical answers.  Very quick and easy.  If you wish to contribute personal or local information, or anecdotes, use the comment section. 

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Author’s Comment:

Covid-19 is not a hoax.  It is not a fantasy.  It is not simply made up. 

However, the responses of our governments, in the United States, and in many other countries around the world have been far more harmful that the pandemic itself.  History will replete with books recounting the horrors caused by the worldwide Covid Pandemic Panic

One of the first to hit the stands is:  “The Price of Panic : How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic Into a Catastrophe” by Jay W. Richards, William M. Briggs and Douglas Axe.  Available in hardback, e-book editions and in audible formats.  I recommend it.

Keep following Watts Up With That to catch the survey results. 

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Paul Seward
November 17, 2020 10:19 am

I wish your drop down answers were a little more exact. For example my answers were 0, 1, 1. But for the last two answers had to pick 1-5. That is a big spread

Paul Seward
Reply to  Paul Seward
November 17, 2020 10:22 am

But I commend you you for doing the survey. I have been wondering the same thing

Bryan A
Reply to  Paul Seward
November 17, 2020 1:06 pm

Including myself, my brother’s household (4), and my employer (350+/-) infected.
I recovered, 3 people in my brother’s household recovered. My brother died as have 2 co-workers

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Bryan A
November 17, 2020 10:59 pm

Bryan, sorry for your loss.

Greg
Reply to  Bryan A
November 17, 2020 11:02 pm

I’m truly sorry to hear you’ve lost your brother in this mess.

Michael
Reply to  Bryan A
November 18, 2020 8:17 am

My deepest condolences regarding your brother.

Carbon Bigfoot
Reply to  Paul Seward
November 17, 2020 4:50 pm

Only dead person I’m aware of was Sean Connery died last week—he was 90.

Jim Mayer
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
November 17, 2020 6:23 pm

He didn’t die of COVID. He died of old age.

Greg
Reply to  Jim Mayer
November 17, 2020 11:10 pm

Don’t split hairs, just mark it down as COVID.

I was talking to the local pharmacist last night, she told me that family doctors, who normally get paid 25 euros per consultation, here in France. If they diagnose COVID19, get paid 55 euros.

Guess what is happening? Many cases of common cold end up getting marked down as COVID.

Same thing in hospitals. A person recently died from cancer. The family were surprised to see COVID on the death cert. They questioned it and were told that the hospital gets extra money for each COVID patient who dies ( presumably justified as elevated costs, somehow ).

The net result is the stats on which descisions are being based and used as justification for destroying our way of life and liberties are begin BOUGHT. Quite simply.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Jim Mayer
November 18, 2020 6:11 am

Trump was widely excoriated for merely suggesting that any doctors or hospitals would ever do any such thing as over report a disease.
From what I have read, the entire medical profession is struggling, as people are avoiding pretty much all care that is not a severe case of covid.
Initially, I kind of scoffed when people started reporting that deaths from covid were being conflated by people that merely dies WITH covid.
But I have come to see that this is a very real and serious issue.
It may explain much of the disparity among various countries of the number of covid deaths and the rates of such.
Germany is a notable example, with a markedly lower number and rate of deaths, given as deaths per million of population, as nearly every adjacent country.

Something peculiar is going on with this.
Since there are no real international standards for how to report, it should likely be taken as a matter of fact that the stats are not comparable from one country to another, at least not necessarily so.

And this does not mean anything shady is going on.
It can be explained by two places simply deciding to use a different standard of what counts as a covid death.
Someone who was gonna die soon because they were at end of life stage, may be called a covid death by one person, but not so by someone else that wanted to know how many people died who were not about to die anyway.

ferdberple
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
November 18, 2020 8:55 am

The average age of non covid deaths in the US is 84. The average age of covid deaths is 84.

Shutting down the economy has not saved anyone.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  ferdberple
November 18, 2020 10:31 am

I think the numbers are closer to 78 for both.

AngryScotonFraggleRock
Reply to  Sommer
November 18, 2020 11:12 am

And I thought the Swiss had no sense of humour (second only to the Germans) 🤣

Stanley
Reply to  AngryScotonFraggleRock
November 22, 2020 6:15 am

That Germans have no sense of humour is just another ridiculous stereo-type by the media.

Jamescrx
Reply to  Paul Seward
November 17, 2020 12:37 pm

I had the same issue. Mine was 0,1,0 but recorded 0, 1-5,0. I’m sure it will work out though.

Drake
Reply to  Jamescrx
November 17, 2020 5:04 pm

+1 Mine was also 0-1-0

martin
Reply to  Drake
November 17, 2020 5:43 pm

there is a slight problem with the survey that will create criticism
i completed it 3 times

Spetzer86
Reply to  martin
November 18, 2020 6:05 am

And you wonder why you don’t get invited to more informal surveys.

Dan Sudlik
Reply to  Paul Seward
November 18, 2020 7:00 am

Mine was easy. All zeroes, thank you God. I’m 79 and my new wife is even older (I’m not allowed to say 😊).

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Dan Sudlik
November 18, 2020 8:19 am

Does that mean god didn’t like those other people?

Gunga Din
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
November 18, 2020 2:48 pm

No.

George M.
Reply to  Paul Seward
November 20, 2020 3:44 am

Last Friday, Nov. 13, 2020, my wife tested positive for Covid-19. She had been sick for nearly a week and we suspect she caught Sars CoV-2 which later developed into Covid-19 from the hospital where she had gone for a minor surgical device implant to monitor her acid reflux.

She is 66 and I am 54. We both have numerous co-morbidities and she is far more prone to colds, flu and other corona virus type illnesses.

Due to my bad health, I went to my doctor months ago and asked if I could start hydroxychloroquine and a regimen of zinc so the zinc would be more readily absorbed and it could help prevent Sars CoV-2 from being able to successfully bind and affect me via my nasal passage and lungs. My doctor agreed with my desire to be proactive to combat the virus and it has worked very well for me. My wife, her doctor and my niece all poo pooed my plan and now both my wife and niece are infected with Covid-19. My niece hasn’t been tested but she has the same symptoms as my wife and she had been coming to our house daily.

My wife is on oxygen at home and we are all three quarantining by order of our county health board but there is a remarkable difference in our health as I appear to be completely unaffected by either virus. I hope they recover soon.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/newly-published-outpatient-study-finds-that-early-use-of-zinc-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-is-associated-with-less-hospitalizations-and-death-301094237.html

John
November 17, 2020 10:20 am

The death rate was artificially boosted in States that didn’t have severe lockdowns in nursing homes. When you weed out this data, death rates drop to just above a bad flu season. In our State of Washington, the current weekly death rate is around .3%, hardly a cause for general lockdowns. The positive rate from Covid tests is also around 3% and with a reported false positive rate of 2%, actual Covid positives could be quite low.

icisil
Reply to  John
November 17, 2020 11:16 am

The death rate was also artificially boosted by iatrogenesis. Covid was misdiagnosed as ARDS, and still is to a large degree, resulting in many patients being treated with ARDS protocols that destroyed their lungs, health and lives.

reeve06
Reply to  icisil
November 17, 2020 1:38 pm

icisil
Sorry, but I don’t understand your terms. Could you explain please.
Thanks much.

patrick healy
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 18, 2020 1:13 pm

Kip,
It is the same (only more draconian) here in the Scottish gulag. I keep asking if any one knows anyone who knows anyone who knew anyone who died of this flu and this flu only. I have yet to find that elusive being.
On the subject of ARDS I wonder if re breathing a large amount of the 40,000 ppm Carbon Dioxide we exhale, which is then trapped by these masks, which Joe Biden wants to mandate, could cause ARDS.
Certainly those poor people who are forced to wear a muzzle all day (like 2 of my grandsons) must be subject to brain damage at least, if not mild ARDS.
Your medical opinion would be welcome.

Joseph Adam-Smith
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 19, 2020 2:58 am

A friend of mine had this problem in November last year. He went to the local clinic (Polichnitos, Lesvos, Greece) He was treated with anti-biotics and sent home. Told not to lie down. If it didn’t get better within two days they were going to put him in hospital.

Apart from that, and, yes, I know it was November 2019, I do not know anyone who had anything relating to the current “worse pandemic EVVA!”

tty
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 21, 2020 2:22 pm

Submariners breathe air with 5000 ppm CO2 for months on end without getting ARDS.

icisil
Reply to  reeve06
November 17, 2020 2:47 pm

Iatrogenesis is when a medical treatment harms/ki!lls a patient.

ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) is an overly broad diagnostic definition consisting of various pathophysiologies that have no specific etiology (cause). Basically, low blood oxygen and bilateral lung opacities in a chest x-ray qualifies as ARDS, no matter the cause. Mechanical ventilation is frequently used as a modality (“treatment”) for ARDS. And in fact, ARDS is a diagnosis created for a technology, i.e. mechanical ventilation.

Decades ago when it was determined that mechanical ventilation caused high mortality, trials were done that resulted in the ARDSnet protocols, which determined the ventilatory settings that best reduced mortality (what they ironically call “lung protective strategy”).

When covid hit, Chinese doctors communicated to the world that covid causes ARDS, which normalized and created the expectation of intubating covid patients; and the WHO followed with the recommendation that covid patients be intubated early to prevent aerosolization of virus.

Astute doctors in the West, however, noticed that many covid patients did not act like typical ARDS patients (they have good lung compliance, can carry on conversations, no trouble breathing), and hypothesized that mechanical ventilation with ARDSnet protocols was doing more harm than good ( a clinician’s careful way of saying ventilators were ki!lling them).

It is now generally recognized (by those who IMO are competent) that the high PEEP (Positive End Expiatory Pressure, i.e., the air pressure at end of expiration) designated in the ARDSnet protocols overdistends alveoli in many covid patients causing lung barotrauma and biotrauma. Biotrauma is the activation of systemic inflammatory pathways that can lead to thrombosis, multiple organ failure and death, i.e., basically what they claim covid does.

So in summary, covid misdiagnosed as ARDS created an iatrogenic tragedy in many patients.

icisil
Reply to  icisil
November 17, 2020 3:08 pm

Here’s something I found today that describes how covid differs from typical ARDS, and how covid patients don’t do well when treated with ARDSnet protocols designed for typical ARDS.

…the sharp physio-anatomic distinctions between non-COVID-ARDS and COVID-19-ARDS suggest the need to modify our standard practice of ARDS management for COVID-19 patients. Specifically, the dramatically greater gas volume and better compliance of COVID-19 lungs, when present, discourage interventions intended to further inflate the lungs. Indeed, for a similar marginal improvement of oxygenation in response to a PEEP increment, signs of overdistension became manifest in our COVID-19 patients.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-020-06281-2?wt_mc=Internal.Event.1.SEM.ArticleAuthorOnlineFirst&utm_source=ArticleAuthorOnlineFirst&utm_medium=email&utm_content=AA_en_06082018&ArticleAuthorOnlineFirst_20201022

icisil
Reply to  icisil
November 17, 2020 3:13 pm

And another

Advanced respiratory monitoring in COVID-19 patients: use less PEEP!
https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13054-020-02953-z

icisil
Reply to  icisil
November 17, 2020 3:18 pm

Mechanical ventilation itself may not be the problem. Here’s an example that shows the difference between mechanical ventilation using ARDSnet (AC/VC with PEEP) and then APRV (Airway Pressure Relief Ventilation with zero PEEP), for which no trials have been done. Notice after only 3 hours on APRV the lungs have cleared remarkably.

https://twitter.com/EPKnott/status/1298406139688779778

CDC1
Reply to  icisil
November 18, 2020 5:00 am

Appreciate all of the anecdotal comments. I am the only person I know of who actually called the CDC several weeks ago. I specifically asked to talk to someone who deals with the data, a technician. The reason was so that I would not have to talk to a “manager/supervisor” or public information officer. This conversation lasted about 30 minutes. The tech was required to read a statement about the recording of covid-19 deaths pertaining to the data being dissimenated by the CDC. The disclaimer listed more than 10 symptoms that a “health care professional”could use to base his diagnosis for covid-19 on. The last one was” if I think it is.” All health care providers in the US, territories etc. Any place the US has jurisdiction.
I had reviewed the data on their website before this conversation, so I had a good idea of what the data actually represented. Basically asking questions that I already knew the answers to.
Ask these”news people” how much research have they actually done, if they have studied the data, did they read the footnotes. I suspect that number is extremely small.
I have also studied research from Sweden, Cambridge university. Jama and apa and other sources. The internet can be a wonderful thing. apa, american pediatric association, requires one to pay to access their data. The reason I went there was because a person I know threw out some statistics that were troubling to me. Obviously related to mortality in certain age groups.
Anyone who believes that this”pandemic” is real has had the wool pulled over their heads. Anyone who can read an excel spreadsheet, who takes the time that they need to understand the data could easily understand that what our government and msm are telling us is not accurate, or even remotely plausible.
Please, people, at least open your minds to the fact that we have been played. I have fallen for cons before, none of us is perfect. We can always be humble and say to ourselves, “I was wrong”

Joseph Campbell
Reply to  icisil
November 18, 2020 7:50 am

icisil: Thanks for the very lucid – and chock-full of definitions – article…

kwinterkorn
Reply to  icisil
November 18, 2020 10:18 am

++
I’m an MD who has been involved in Covid treatment. Icisil’s comments are consistent with my understanding.

The most important point is that in covid pneumonia the lung tissue remains pliable and does not require high pressure to ventilate. Indeed, the high pressures used to treat most ARDS, wherein the lung tissue becomes stiff, are destructive in covid——what is referred to as “barotrauma” caused worsening in many patients early on back in March.

Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
Reply to  icisil
November 17, 2020 5:32 pm

COVID is a disease of the epithelial cells, and it took time to work that out. There are a number of predispositions to one person suffering more than another. Vitamin D deficiency is one, and it is associated with skin pigmentation in the higher latitudes. No one dare mention this but the consequences are dire for those concerned. The increased risk of death is blamed on poverty and racism. Pre-existing conditions are another (most serious) problem.

It would be good to separate the illness/severity/deaths figures before and after it was understood that the original diagnosis that it was a “lung disease” was incorrect. When the treatment regime was better tuned to the cause, the outcome changed dramatically. That matters.

Gerry, England
Reply to  Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
November 18, 2020 11:41 am

The other major thing is nosocomial deaths of which there has most likely been tens of thousands in the UK. A friend of mine’s mother contracted covid in hospital and died from it. Yes, she was not in the best of health but would likely have recovered were it not for being infected in the hospital.

Covid cases should never have been taken to hospitals but put in isolation hospitals or at least wards. But the UK was using the response plan for a flu epidemic as it had no plan for SARS despite being given warning it needed one frequently over the last 15 years which would not have used isolation. Belatedly some isolation facilities are being built. A Surrey hospital has built one in 4 months.

Robertvd
Reply to  icisil
November 18, 2020 1:31 am

And I suppose the older you get the weaker the lungs and the rest of the system. Of Course there are also many more people getting older than it used to be like we see with diabetics. But that doesn’t make them stronger. In the past most would not reach 50. Now many live to be 80 or older. They have gained 30 years or more.

Robertvd
Reply to  John
November 17, 2020 12:51 pm

US 350 Million people.
Let assume we all become 85 so 350 Mp / 85 = 4,117,647 dead people / year .
4,117,647 people / 365 days year = dead 11,281 per day.
US 2020 Covid 247.696 deaths = 22 normal days

Scissor
Reply to  Robertvd
November 17, 2020 3:48 pm

The daily death rate, which is seasonal with winter taking more older folks via respiratory diseases, is somewhat lower than your estimate. Your logic is correct.

Covid deaths account for about 30 normal days of death, but since they are spread out, and amazingly flu deaths have all but disappeared, there haven’t been significant excess deaths since springtime.

boffin77
Reply to  Scissor
November 17, 2020 11:16 pm

For reference: Euro MoMo (Morbidity Monitoring) has very clear graphs of European deaths for all ages and from all causes. Every winter there is an influenza outbreak, with characteristic spikes in total “excess” deaths (i.e. deaths above the baseline of about 53,000 deaths per week. A year with no influenza would have roughly 2.76 million European deaths). Excess deaths are plotted, week by week, in the top graph here: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps. The 2017-2018 influenza season had a double spike, 2019 was a mild season, and 2020 had a large sharp covid spike that ended in week 22 (around May 28th).
I painstakingly integrated under the 2018 flu season (143,015 excess deaths) and the 2020 covid season (174,944 excess deaths). Simple math reveals that in Europe, the 2020 Covid spike was 22% higher than the 2018 seasonal flu.
The total morbidity in each flu season (July-to-June) is equal to the baseline 2.76 million deaths plus the excess deaths. Total European morbidity in 2020 was about 1% higher than total morbidity in 2018.
Without doubt, this surprisingly low impact of Covid is due in part to the extraordinary efforts of the Eurpoean public health workers, and the sacrifices made by every locked-down citizen.
But it also provides a possible answer to Kip Hansen’s question “Where are all the sick people?” In Europe at least, there just weren’t all that many more gravely-ill people than usual.

There is similar data for Canadian all-source morbidities here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310076801
It shows a similar very mild spike from Covid, restricted almost entirely to people over 65y.

A plot of US statistics is here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count. Unlike the European and Canadian plots, this graphs shows a clear second-wave in August 2020.

Patrick B
Reply to  boffin77
November 18, 2020 10:41 am

“Without doubt, this surprisingly low impact of Covid is due in part to the extraordinary efforts of the Eurpoean public health workers, and the sacrifices made by every locked-down citizen.”

BS – prove it. I have many doubts that either the “extra-ordinary” efforts (please define) for gravely sick elderly patients or that locking up not-at risk populations had any significant effect on the final total outcome in terms of number of deaths.

boffin77
Reply to  boffin77
November 19, 2020 8:49 am

Partick B
Well, I concede your point to some extent – I should not have said “without doubt.” But you have to admit that we have no data for “what would Europe have looked like with medical interventions and lock-downs,” because that experiment was not run (at least for the whole European continent). So though I share your doubt, I can’t really draw conclusions about your conjecture.

very old white guy
Reply to  Robertvd
November 18, 2020 6:16 am

The average daily deaths in America are about 8,000 a day from all causes. World wide about 153,400 people die everyday from all causes, about 2 every second.

Big Al
Reply to  John
November 17, 2020 4:22 pm

John, More than 90 % people who test positive have no symptoms . Correlates with 90% false positive results. The false results are part of The Plandemic.

freedom monger
Reply to  Big Al
November 17, 2020 7:32 pm
Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  freedom monger
November 18, 2020 7:50 am

To me the covid deaths are the more important metric – as flawed as those numbers might be. I checked 2020 auto fatalities in Tennessee yesterday and compared the numbers with covid deaths. Covid was about 4K and auto was 1k so its running 4-to-1 so far this year if you believe the covid numbers. Covid mostly takes the older less healthy and auto deaths are at the younger end of the age range. Another good place to look is the USA total deaths curve on **worldometers.info**. The USA total deaths curve has remained relatively straight since early July. On the other hand, the USA active cases curve is looking more like a hockey stick. Since there is a lag between active case numbers and deaths, we’ll just need to wait and watch.
The message to me is: “stay young and healthy and if you can’t stay young, at least stay healthy.”

Charles Higley
Reply to  Big Al
November 17, 2020 9:39 pm

“Covid-19 is not a hoax. It is not a fantasy. It is not simply made up. ”

Yes, it is a hoax, it is a fantasy and it was made up. 3 for 3 wrong.

As the virus has never been isolated in pure culture and characterized and shown to cause the purported symptoms, the virus actually does NOT exist factually. Sure there is one or more viruses that made people sick, but no one can point to a specific virus. It’s a joke.

Instead, we have the flu season salad of influenza and coronaviruses. One can contract more than one of these viruses at a time and present with a variety of symptoms, which is exactly how they describe Covid-19 syndrome. In January, they were even blaming hiccups on the virus.

Then, we have to PCR test which by definition cannot be specific for a virus no one has isolated. One group determined 37 base pairs of a virus isolate (again not a pure virus), then had a computer fill in the remaining 30,000 base pairs, and published the sequence. This means that this supposed virus C-19 was fabricated by a computer, which, again, by definition, used already known sequences from other coronaviruses.

The antibody test is equally nonspecific because, again, there is no specific virus identified.

And a vaccine against an unidentified virus simply cannot do what they say. So, what are they using or putting in these by-definition false vaccines?

Jon
Reply to  Charles Higley
November 18, 2020 5:37 am

Bingo!

Ktm
Reply to  Charles Higley
November 19, 2020 11:21 pm

Sorry, but this is nonsense.

SARS-CoV-2 has been fully sequenced tens of thousands of times by groups all over the world. They assemble the sequence to a consensus framework, but the genomic structure has been corroborated tens of thousands of times.

There are computational algorithms (pangolin for example) that automatically classify different strain sequences into clusters, which replicate the global dynamics of a highly contagious pandemic.

I think the hysteria is overblown, but the science underlying the genetic sequence and specific molecular detection designs are very sound.

Reply to  Ktm
November 20, 2020 10:17 am

Can you name or point to sources of some of those groups that have fully sequenced the virus “tens of thousands of times”?

Ktm
Reply to  Ktm
November 20, 2020 10:46 am

https://www.gisaid.org/

212,000 submissions now, from all over the world.

Jerome
Reply to  Charles Higley
November 22, 2020 5:37 am

I agree. It is a hoax and made up. It doesn’t exist. They simply renamed ordinary cold and flu and killed some people on ventilators at the start. This is my conclusion after eight months of first hand observation in the middle of New York City.

John F Hultquist
Reply to  John
November 17, 2020 6:00 pm

I’m also a John, from the State of Washington. Answers for me: 0, 0, 0

Our county (Kittitas) officials — and people – – are pushing back on Jay Inslee’s latest.
I think the last death in this county was on Augurst 2nd.
Businesses and people are being crushed by the closures.

Tired Old Nurse
Reply to  John
November 17, 2020 6:57 pm

The Covid death rTe absolutely boosted in the States. I’ve had to work the Covid units in my facility and it is very common for a patient’s death to be attributed to Covid when it is an incidental comorbidity. That is not to say that I have not cared for patients who are seriously ill from Covid. Primarily older patients with underlying respiratory illnesses…. precisely the population most vulnerable.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  John
November 18, 2020 6:21 am

About that flu season…we are not having one.
Compared to recent years, there are almost no cases of flu in the US.

Look at reports from this year week 45 and last year week 45.
2020:
https://idph.iowa.gov/Portals/1/userfiles/79/Reports/Flu%20Reports/IA%20Influenza%20Report%20-%20Week%2045%202020.pdf

2019:
https://idph.iowa.gov/Portals/1/userfiles/79/Reports/Flu%20Reports/IA%20Influenza%20Report%20-%20Week%2045%202019.pdf

It is early yet, and there is some indication of an increase.
But also, many stats are for ILI…influenza like illness, and not necessarily lab confirmed cases, and so there many be conflation with covid cases, or so it seems may be the case.

Here is the CDC flu tracker page:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

Nick Schroeder
November 17, 2020 10:22 am

Center for Disease Control data updated 11/4/20 in three simple graphics.

Looks like the C-19 death roller coaster has culled about as many from the herd as it needs.

NYC and 6 states together have more C-19 deaths than the ENTIRE rest of the country combined.
NYC and the top 9 states represent over 70% of the C-19 deaths.

There were more C-19 deaths among the 75+ demographic than the ENTIRE rest of the population.
24% of deaths occurred in nursing or hospice care.

Sorry excuse for a highly contagious, lethal, wide-ranging pandemic.

More like a SCAM-demic.

Graphic found here:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nicholas-schroeder-55934820_data-covid19-pandemic-activity-6730259531730952192-PKhb

George Tetley
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
November 17, 2020 10:54 am

Nick you forgot to say that results show the Democraic controlled stafes won the c19 race God help us if Hunters dad takes control

Reply to  Nick Schroeder
November 17, 2020 1:36 pm

CDC data in Table 2 at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm shows that the US all-causes mortality from Feb. 1 is 11 percent over the 2017-2019 average. However the city of New York is 60 percent over the previous three years. Excluding New York city and the rest of the state, because of Gov. Cuomo’s sending COVID patients into nursing homes, would knock the US excess deaths down several percentage points.

MIKE MCHENRY
November 17, 2020 10:32 am

I only know of one person that was COVID positive. She had lung cancer too and died

Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 10:32 am

0,0,0

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 10:39 am

As I too

Douglas Edward Lampert
Reply to  Krishna Gans
November 17, 2020 11:38 am

I entered 0,0,0, but then thought about the local bridge club, it should have been 1 case and 1 death if you count acquaintances.

beng135
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 12:00 pm

Same. Nephew had recent flu, but got tested & it wasn’t the dreaded CHIIINA virus.

Anonymous
November 17, 2020 10:33 am

Kip,
In my extended family we have a relative who is 84. She is a widow and lives alone. She keeps in contact with her circle of similar aged friends by phone. None of her elderly friends have even been ill, let alone died.
At a nearby old folks home, undergoing strict isolation none of the 75 resident all aged over 70 has tested positive ever, and certainly none have died from Covid.
Do I know of anyone dying? Yes a very good friend took his life because he could not endure lock-down.

RonK
Reply to  Anonymous
November 17, 2020 3:34 pm

I’m glad your relative is ok at 84, but I bet she hasn’t seen a doc in a while, if she did I’m sure they would have found something wrong, I really and truly hope she stays in good health

Luke
November 17, 2020 10:37 am

You’re right that Covid-19 is not a hoax. You’re right that it is not a fantasy. You’re right that it is not simply made up.

It was blown way out of proportion, purposefully. That’s what it is.

M Courtney
Reply to  Luke
November 17, 2020 1:59 pm

The problem is that we only have one weapon against plagues. Isolation.
This is the same weapon for today’s COVID or today’s Ebola. We have just one weapon. We ant to use a scalpel but all we have is a machete. At least it does cut the virus.

It’s been this way for centuries. We stay apart and let the virus burn out all the potential victims in it’s tiny pit. And then we can breathe again.

When we get vaccines the plagues last less than 100 years. This is better than the Black Death. But we aren’t there yet.

Julian Braggins
Reply to  M Courtney
November 18, 2020 3:26 am

We do have public health information to help improve our immune status. Or we should have, but it seems to be falling down on the job.
Adequate levels of Selenium are a preventative for many viral diseases, e.g. Hanta, Ebola, HIV, Covid19 . Adequate levels of Vit D reduce chances of infection by Covid 19 and improve chances of ICU recovery to 97.5% in one Indonesian study. Vit D plus Zinc and Vit K2 and an ionophore such as Green tea, Astragalus tea Quercetin or a quinine based Tonic Water would further reduce one’s chance of infection, co-morbidities aside. There are studies for some of these these statements, and many videos by medical experts, but I’ll leave you to do the searches from some of these clues, I’m tired, got up at 5.30, had a busy day and it’s past my bed time for an 88 year old 😉

Don132
Reply to  Julian Braggins
November 18, 2020 8:08 am

Yes, the real crux of the matter isn’t how serious Covid-19 is or isn’t, but the fact that we have effective treatments/preventative measures for Covid-19 that are being actively suppressed, and this should make us all wonder why this is happening.

Hydroxychloroquine is a case in point, as this is a harmless preventative treatment as used in the low-dose, five day regime of something like the Zelenko protocol, yet this treatment has been viciously fought against even to the point of one of the world’s foremost medical journals, The Lancet, publishing a paper about it so blatantly bad that it had to be retracted shortly thereafter.

So, we are all to wear masks and social distance to do everything we can to “stay safe”? Why not ensure that we have adequate vitamins A, C, D, etc. so that our immune systems are operating top-notch and that oxidative stress, as would be induced by an infection, is adequately countered by the premier anti-oxidant, vitamin C, which serves to harmlessly replenish the body’s numerous other antioxidants so they can function properly to maintain redox equilibrium? In layman’s terms: infections screw up electron transfers which in turn have a cascading effect on molecular mechanisms, and a “broad-spectrum” reducing agent, such as vitamin C, helps restore elections and maintain equilibrium.

Vitamin C is but one tool we have, as Julian mentions, to fight this disease without resorting to onerous dictates that destroy jobs, livelihoods, and liberties.

Quercetin, readily available, is, like hydroxychloroquine, an ionophore for zinc (helps zinc get in to cells), and zinc is what stops Covid-19 replication in cells.

evewoman
Reply to  M Courtney
November 18, 2020 6:38 am

M, completely false statement. We now know more about Vitamin D and how important it is for the body to heal. Yet too many Americans are vitamin D deficient (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vitamin-d-deficiency-united-states/) and with the forever shouting about sunscreen and covering up it’s no wonder. Yet skin cancer rates have not fallen dramatically even with more people using sunscreen/avoiding the sun, and are actually rising (https://health.usnews.com/health-care/for-better/articles/why-is-skin-cancer-rising). So that begs the question: Is our avoidance of the sun and use of very high SPF sunscreens actually contributing to not only skin cancer, but obesity, diabetes, and yes, respiratory illnesses?
We also are chronically Vitamin C deficient in some segments of the population, i.e. low-income and smokers, which tend to be one and the same (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19675106/) and these also tend to have higher mortality rates for Covid/flu/pneumonia.
Vitamin D3 coupled with K2 and Liposomal Vitamin C are relatively inexpensive supplements that should be encouraged and taught to everyone.
We eat too many grains, the wrong balance of Omega 3/Omega 6, too much sugar, not enough water. Now couple that with keeping everyone inside during the crucial months of summer when you should be outside getting fresh air, sunshine to promote Vitamin D production, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Pile on the stress of job/income loss, isolation, leading to cortisol levels skyrocketing, which will further inhibit healing, increase in alcohol consumption, and what do you think will happen?
This has all been insanity on a massive scale.

November 17, 2020 10:37 am

Germany (worldometer)

285,649
Currently Infected Patients

282,213 (99%)
in Mild Condition

3,436 (1%)
Serious or Critical

Last updated: November 17, 2020, 18:35 GMT

Paul Penrose
November 17, 2020 10:38 am

I have been told that in my home state of Minnesota the hospitals are at 100% capacity with COVID-19 cases. However in talking to someone who works at the local hospital, I found they are nowhere near capacity; they even had a couple of ICU beds available. They are not even back to full staffing levels yet because a lot of people are still putting off “elective” procedures. As far as I can tell, the “100% capacity” claim is a prediction based on some sort of model. Kind of like the “2 million US dead by the end of the year” claims we heard so much of last spring, and even into the late summer, depending on who you were listening to. It’s now apparent we won’t even reach 25% of that level. That’s good news for the general population, but doesn’t say much for the credibility of the “experts”.

Thomas Gasloli
Reply to  Paul Penrose
November 17, 2020 11:51 am

It was never about credible experts. it was always about using it as an excuse to shut down the economy to give Quid Pro Joe a boost in the election

We are back to lockdowns both to distract from the evidence of systematic, comprehensive, ballot fraud, and to hopefully wind COVID down before Quid Pro’s inauguration. And you can count on the media to not bother to actually check with the hospitals to see if they are really overwhelmed–they just repeat whatever the Dem expert tells them.

It is also highly probable that the less lethal COVID we are seeing now is a mutation, one for which the vaccines will not work. At this point there will be multiple strains of COVID on each continent. COVID will be here forever as another seasonal virus.

MarkG
Reply to  Thomas Gasloli
November 17, 2020 12:35 pm

I’m not sure about ‘less lethal’. It was never particularly lethal unless you let it run rampant in care homes.

The panic should have been over as soon as we saw the actual death rates from the infected cruise ship, where many people didn’t catch it even when in the same room as someone who had it, and only about 1% of a relatively elderly population died.

But Muh Great Reset.

John F Hultquist
Reply to  MarkG
November 17, 2020 6:22 pm

A sister-in-law was on the Grand Princess.
2 weeks of free room & board after docking in Oakland.
She’s fine.

freedom monger
Reply to  Thomas Gasloli
November 17, 2020 8:48 pm

The COVID Milieu has temporarily replaced the Climate Change Milieu, but now that they’ve figured out how to do it, the Climate Change Milieu will be patterned off the COVID Milieu in the future.

I see Economic Lockdowns and Travel Restrictions to “save the environment” in my crystal ball.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Paul Penrose
November 18, 2020 11:14 am

Paul, every state I have checked on for any reason has a great website setup with all kinds of info about cases and available beds and empty beds and surge capacity that can be brought online quickly.
Beyond that there are contingencies for setting up facilities in large buildings like hockey areas or convention halls.
They had built a bunch of those last Spring and wound up taking them all apart unused in nearly every case, as far as I know.
That hospital ship they had in NYC went unused and was sent back to where ever they keep it.

Minnesota appears to have as good of a website as nay other.
Looks like for the whole state there are over 1800 ICU beds (including the ones that can be brought online within 72 hours if there is a need) and about 1150 are in use. 292 are covid patients.
~9000 beds total, 6545 in use. 1172 are covid.

I think it is typical for hospitals to be over half full, with some rarely having more than 10-20% of total beds not in use.
It is expensive to have hospital beds ready and waiting, especially ICU beds.
So they have more than are usually needed by some small percentage, and others that can be set up if the need arises.
And it is also common for patients to be routed depending on how busy a particular hospital is at the current time.
It is an ongoing every day thing for doctors to call around for a open cardiac intensive care bed, for example, when someone comes in and is found to have some special circumstance better served somewhere else…or just because the best hospitals tend to be the ones that are on the full side at any given time.
And those that are in the centers of large cities.

For an example, most people are probably aware that every year about 35,000-40,000 people are killed in auto accidents.
But fewer may realize that most people who are badly injured are saved.
Maybe one in ten people that are gravely injured typically dies these days.
It may be even more than ten times as many injured than killed.

And auto accidents are not even the majority of accidents overall.
They are a small fraction.
Hospitals are normally very busy places, as anyone who has had to go to an emergency room knows well.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
November 18, 2020 11:14 am
Michael Nagy
November 17, 2020 10:39 am

This type of research and information has been put out by Tony Heller for months now. There just isn’t any problem with this disease but the governors just keep up the pressure. My state of Oregon has just instituted another sever lockdown for “two weeks”. Last time they did this in March it lasted six months. They (Democratic governors) are killing the economy and many people besides. Why? I just don’t get why. And when will this idiocy be over? Must we wear masks every time we go in a store forever? I talked to the manager of a liquor store the other day and asked him what happens to the store if they don’t require masks. He said you get fined by OCEA. (Don’t know if that is the correct acronym.) Up to $10,000. So are there government people going around checking on this? Or are ordinary people ratting on these store owners? These lockdowns and forced mask wearing are the biggest threat to our Constitutional rights that has ever come along. We have to stop this madness.

Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 17, 2020 3:53 pm

Does that mean if I move back to NY, and drive like a lunatic, as I did as a teenager, there won’t be radar traps to nail me — with the police too busy spying on restaurants? Now there’s one reason to live in New York.

John F Hultquist
Reply to  Richard Greene
November 17, 2020 6:27 pm

From PA, we used to drive up to NY to buy beer.

Are your reflexes as good now as they were then?

Ted
Reply to  Michael Nagy
November 17, 2020 3:23 pm

Why? Originally is was to win the election. Blaming all deaths on Trump, kneecapping the economy, allowing Biden to hide instead of campaign publicly, and making ballots as unsecure and easy to fake as possible were all needed.
When will it end? When they decide that making Biden look good by defeating the virus and restoring the the economy is more useful than the expanded powers.

Mad Mac
November 17, 2020 10:40 am

I think the media and politicians are conflating positive tests which lie around 10 million in the US, with deaths from Covid. What I can’t understand is why the health professionals in the state governments are not educating the governers and other state politicians as well as the public. I was out walking in the river forest (Bosque) in Albuquerque this morning and there were very few people walking and cycling but all were wearing masks. They have been led to believe that the virus is out in the atmosphere floating ready to attack. There are signs that were put up Sunday telling people it is mandatory to wear masks in the outdoor public space. No understanding of how the virus is transmitted ie proximity to someone infected for at least a few minutes according to the CDC. A large Walmart was admitting only about 50 people at a time yesterday. Amazing!

Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 17, 2020 5:59 pm

It will cease to be NEWS if and when Biden walks into the Oval Office. That might sound cynical – but anyone who has watched the MSM through several Administrations must agree. Just look at the reporting of combat casualties under Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, Obama, and Trump. Then compare them to the actual casualties for each Administration.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Writing Observer
November 18, 2020 8:16 am

I don’t think it will cease to be news. I think more and more draconian measures will be enacted. And the severity of the virus will be blamed on a lack of action by Orange Man Bad.

TonyG
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
November 18, 2020 8:25 am

Jeff, you may be right. They’ve gotten a taste of serious power to control people, and they like it. They won’t let it go easily.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  TonyG
November 18, 2020 8:37 am

Yes, but don’t forget, this is world-wide, and only our American friends can “blame” Orange Man (and will, for everything, for the next three years, when they’ll have to switch to “give us four more years”).

Here in Canada we have the hideously unqualified Prime Minstrel Junior Sockboy Castro happily signing away our grandchildren’s grandchildren’s GRANDCHILDREN’S future every day, trotting out the “science” to “prove” every single policy that more or less contradicts the “science” that “proved” the LAST policy.

Oh, and the moron actually uses “cupping” as part of his extensive knowledge of medicine, so forgive me if I retch a bit.

And don’t think that, even if we rid ourselves of COVID19, they won’t roll out the same policies to “bend the curve” the next flu season. Just watch them.

“If it saves only one person”.

Book it.

TonyG
Reply to  Caligula Jones
November 18, 2020 9:28 am

And don’t think that, even if we rid ourselves of COVID19, they won’t roll out the same policies to “bend the curve” the next flu season. Just watch them.

Agreed fully – I’ve been saying that for several months now.

Old.George
Reply to  Caligula Jones
November 18, 2020 10:57 am

“happily signing away our grandchildren’s grandchildren’s GRANDCHILDREN’S future every day”
My great-grandchildren are a decade away from being of an age to have children. Generations can take less than 20 years each.
Let us leave an environment and society where everyone for uncounted generations finds it a joy to be alive.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  Old.George
November 18, 2020 11:28 am

https://www.fool.ca/2020/07/13/canadas-debt-to-hit-1-2-trillion-what-does-this-mean-for-investors/

“Last week, the federal government released its fiscal snapshot for 2020. It wasn’t pretty. Forecasting a $343 billion deficit, it projected that federal debt would hit $1.2 trillion by the end of the year. $1.2 trillion is about $31,000 for every Canadian — including children and retirees. That’s a significant amount of debt per capita, and about $9,000 comes from the projected 2020 deficit alone.”

Yeah, let’s do what you said…

Tom Foley
Reply to  Mad Mac
November 17, 2020 3:25 pm

I am sure health professionals know that you are unlikely to be exposed to the virus when walking or cycling alone. The blanket rule is designed to get people to automatically use a mask when they leave the house, rather than argue about each instance. If it was left up to each person’s individual choice as to where or where not to wear a mask, there would be even more arguments than there are now! Yes, the extreme cases (walking alone in the woods) do appear silly, but better than having to adjudicate on every individual argument between people in shops etc over whether masks should be worn in this situation.

Reply to  Tom Foley
November 18, 2020 12:53 am

You are arguing from the premise that masks actually work against viruses. Do you get paid to “normalise the narrative” on the internet? Please tell me where I can apply, i also need free money for nothing.

Don132
Reply to  Tom Foley
November 18, 2020 8:29 am

The problem is that medical authoritarianism, such as we’re seeing now, if often associated with, and can conceivably be used as an excuse for, political authoritarianism.

US eugenics: what was its purpose? To keep us safe from degenerates, was it not? We can now see that it was simply a tool for the egregious violation of personal liberty to protect what some supposed was “the greater good,” when our real greater good is the firm preservation of individual liberties as an insurance against any insidious and backhanded encroachment of authoritarianism. We should never suppose that our greater good is something other than that.

One of the most frightening things about what’s happening now is this tendency toward medical-political authoritarianism. First, dictates were justified to “flatten the curve” but it hasn’t stopped there, has it?

Justin Burch
November 17, 2020 10:42 am

I have had one extended family member test positive. He was sick for two days and had a nagging cough for two weeks afterward. Beyond that he’s been fine. I know of no one personally who died. If you count those who died in personal care homes with COVID approximately twice the number of people have died with COVID as have died in traffic accidents in my province. If you remove those who were in personal care homes at the tie they died with COVID the number drops by 90% to far less than die in a year in traffic accidents. I don’t know how one could protect people in nursing homes while opening up society but we really need to figure out how to do this.

Randle Dewees
November 17, 2020 10:43 am

0,0,0

Except I was REALLY sick last late Dec – early Jan with the mystery Not CV19 Not the flu.

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  Randle Dewees
November 17, 2020 2:03 pm

#MeTooEarlyImpossibleCV19

January 4th 2020 for about a week, just 2 days in bed, fairly fit 67-year old. The loss of taste was the weird thing, so I had to force myself to eat.

Rich.

lee Riffee
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
November 17, 2020 4:37 pm

I also had the “cold from heck” back in mid January…..I swear I think I might have had the Corona Virus even though supposedly it didn’t make it to US shores until sometime in February. I’ve never had a respiratory illness that lasted 4 + weeks and where I had to go thru 4 and a half boxes of cold/flu OTC meds. I’d get better and then it seemed to fire back up, like it didn’t want to give up. I never went to the dr. but I was real close to doing so near the end. Worse yet, my employer demanded I work (and I care for vulnerable elderly people) so I wore a mask long before they were required. And I’ve had the flu, so I know what that’s like. Also gave blood in August where they test for Corona antibodies, and I was negative, but then again, antibodies don’t last that long.

That said, I know three people who had the Corona Virus. One is a friend/business associate, and the other two are her parents. All three had it in February and said it was no worse than the flu or a bad cold. And my friend is very obese with some chronic illnesses and her parents are in their 70’s.

Just Jenn
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
November 18, 2020 5:17 am

@ Rich

Jan 10th here and it ripped through my office from one person to the next all down the line. We all got it and we were out for 2 -3 days each. The loss of taste was the weirdest I’ve ever experienced but I knew it wasn’t the flu. I know what the flu feels like and this wasn’t it. And since I had sick days, I can look up my record for the exact dates I was sick.

My cousin got it, her husband brought it back from Mexico, both of them tested positive, were out sick for a few days, took about a week to recover…same loss of taste and they are better now. Other than that, my son’s friend tested positive and was out sick for about a week.

My biggest problem has always been this: it’s a coronavirus, it’s not the superflu. It’s not the boogieman hiding behind the store front doors ready to spring into action and get you sick. It’s a coronavirus, one of many and I do mean many. So why the panic? Why the inflated numbers, clutching of pearls, running around like chickens with our heads cut off, screaming to the skies above, and rampant and I do mean rampant misinformation, misleading information, and excessive modeling? This is bigger than US Politics.

Usually the simplest answer to the question is more of the truth:
1. A vast media conspiracy filled with tens of thousands of complacent individuals.
2. US Politics coup across the globe.
3. WHO conspirators to redistribute wealth.
4. Big Pharma lining their pockets and biding their time until they can produce the “cure”?

OR and we’ve seen this before in our own history: an idea takes hold and people spread that idea across the globe.

My money is on the last because there is evidence of it in our own history. What has changed from then to now is very simple, the ability to spread information fast across the entire world. What has also changed is the added ability to debunk that information, but debunking cant happen while people are still racing around with the whites of their eyes showing.

So I will do what I have done since this started. Keep my head down and wait for it to pass and not come back (it’s just taking forever it seems). Smug and superior that I did not get caught up in the rhetoric…LOL (yes that part was sarcasm).

Richard M
Reply to  Randle Dewees
November 17, 2020 3:36 pm

Ditto.

Mark A Luhman
Reply to  Randle Dewees
November 17, 2020 5:04 pm

They found a case outside of China in early September, I don’t remember where it was.

Reply to  Mark A Luhman
November 18, 2020 1:01 am

It was wedged between a dumpster and a urine-soaked wall. Used to belong to an American, left California looking for a place with less communists. He tried to hide his case while surreptitiously trying to panhandle train fare off bewildered Myanmaris, got arrested for social decrepitude, but he lost his case in the kerfuffle. Poor sod never even made it into China! Please ship his case back to his mum in Poughkeepsie.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  Mark A Luhman
November 18, 2020 7:14 am

Probably Italy:

https://nypost.com/2020/11/15/covid-19-may-have-been-in-italy-as-early-as-september-2019/

Probably NOTHING to do with the large number of Chinese workers imported to work in the textile factories…

Annette Huang
Reply to  Randle Dewees
November 17, 2020 8:21 pm

Quite a few people I know of in New Zealand had an odd flu or respiratory problem from December 2019 to February 2020 (southern summer, first full lockdown in March). I had a 2 day cold/respiratory something in January which is very unusual for me. Professor Dolores Cahill said in an interview that the infection would have been round the world within 3 weeks and we have probably all been exposed to it, well before anyone in authority got busy making regulations. I know of no one who has been diagnosed officially.

Locking down the “vulnerable” is really cruel for their families and carers – in my opinion (and my husband is in dementia care at 76) it would be better just to let people visit and let the chips fall where they may. Prolonging life in late age for people with co-morbidities should not really be a major goal. Quality over quantity would be my preference.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  Annette Huang
November 18, 2020 7:15 am

My 90 year old dad here in Canada had a very bad, congestive cold sometime in February…hmmmm.

Monna Manhas
Reply to  Randle Dewees
November 17, 2020 10:17 pm

0,0,0 here too, though I did have a cold in February for a week or so. And lost taste and smell for about 5 days after.
I do know one person who says her son (who lives in a different city) had covid.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Randle Dewees
November 18, 2020 4:00 am

in Aus a 3+day fever that wouldnt break muscle aches that had me near crying and a nonstop cough with lots of phlegm took myself to hospital when i started to feel short of breath
tst result?
no cold no flu
wtf?
took about 6 weeks to recover n 2 abiotic courses to throw the pneumonia I definitely did have
that was oct/nov ?2019

Tom Abbott
Reply to  ozspeaksup
November 18, 2020 6:36 am

The Chinese military supposedly locked down all their military bases in Wuhan province on about November 1, 2019, so that might be a good indication of when the Chicoms realized they had a problem on their hands.

nottoobrite
November 17, 2020 10:44 am

Like every story. Told by the media it has a political motivation, Trump is to blame after all he said it was nothing to worry about.
Living in Germany and asking friends NOT one knows of a virus person, but all know that the media is like CNN Chit Not News.

JC
November 17, 2020 10:44 am

I know 3 people who tested positive. One had a slight cough. The other two never got so much as a sniffle.

Scissor
Reply to  JC
November 17, 2020 3:54 pm

I know several who tested positive back in March, none since then.

Among family and friends during this period, 3 have died, none with CV-19. One heart attack, one cancer and one lung disease.

fretslider
November 17, 2020 10:46 am

Cov-19 is a golden opportunity to take control.

Doris Johnson came into contact – so they say – and then, despite his immunity, self-isolated. He has apparently tested negative…

Boris Johnson tests negative for coronavirus – but will remain in self-isolation
https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/boris-johnson-tests-negative-coronavirus-4709324

Carrie must be on the warpath.

Brendan
Reply to  fretslider
November 17, 2020 2:58 pm

Boris is being isolated as prophylaxis,
to protect society…

RG
November 17, 2020 10:48 am

I have 300 employees, spread over three countries. We have had four total cases. One is current, but the other three are long since back to work. As things were heating up way back when, we sent more people home in a week with regular flue than the total number of COVID cases we have had in the nine months since.

As the article states, COVID is real, it’s just not anywhere near as pervasive as those in money would care to have us believe.

climanrecon
November 17, 2020 10:49 am

Many people (such as me) will be living in areas that have not even had a proper first wave yet, because they got locked down and/or isolated. Some people say that is success, others (such as me) say that is failure. Vaccines may justify the claim of success, but to me govts must always cater for the worst case, which is that vaccines may never be able to suppress a mutating virus.

RG
November 17, 2020 10:50 am

And I forgot to mention, all of our cases came after a mask policy was in effect.

John F Hultquist
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 17, 2020 6:35 pm

Most masks are a reminder to be nice.

It is odd to see a person outside alone, or a driver alone, wearing a mask.
Saw each type today.

Roger
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 18, 2020 12:46 am

My box of masks provided by my employer is quite clearly a Chinese fake with the airflow of blotting paper. Good for virtue signaling though.

Tom Abbbott
Reply to  Roger
November 18, 2020 6:44 am

Try blowing a candle out while wearing a mask. Is it more difficult than when not wearing a mask? Obviously it is. So when you wear a mask, even a poor mask, you are not spreading the virus as far as you would if you were not wearing a mask. So masks, even poor masks, have some benefits. You don’t think doctors and nurses are stupid because they wear masks, do you? They probably have a good reason for wearing them, wouldn’t you think?

A little common sense and logic go a long way.

icisil
Reply to  Tom Abbbott
November 18, 2020 8:10 am

Masks may keep larger particles from spreading farther, but they definitely don’t stop tinier aerosols that hang in the air longer. So we’re constantly breathing in what other peoples’ lungs have expelled as we move into their formerly occupied space.

HOJO
Reply to  Tom Abbbott
November 18, 2020 8:40 am

so we are all infected is that your logic? I have not blown on anybody lately in my travels about and the size of the virus is so small that it if you had it spread mask or no mask. It’s like trying to stop a mosquito with a chain link fence, good luck. Please do some research and stop watching MSM as they are the devils that chant lies to all that will listen. I wish you a safe and happy life but please again do some research.

Bruce Cobb
November 17, 2020 10:53 am

I had one friend who died from Covid, and another who died with it (he had cancer, so Covid simply hastened his death). The friend who died’s wife also got Covid, but did not have to be hospitalized. The key here is hospitalizations, which we know are rising rapidly. Deaths are a lagging indicator, however I believe the death rate has fallen, due to better care now, and even some workable treatments.
The whole “wear your mask” thing is merely a pacifier, meant to calm people’s fears. It is nothing more than a belief, based on little evidence, that they do much of anything. They may in fact, make things worse. That said, it is probably wise to stay out of bars and restaurants, and pretty much all non-essential indoor (and even some outdoor) gatherings, at least until a vaccine comes out. This, unfortunately includes most Thanksgiving family gatherings. I have heard people use the flimsy, retarded excuse that “family is important”. Really. Even to the extent of risking people’s health, and possibly even their lives?

icisil
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 17, 2020 11:24 am

Some people think obsessing over an illness that has a 99+% survival rate is retarded.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  icisil
November 17, 2020 12:25 pm

Yes, retarded people might think that.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 17, 2020 3:39 pm

No, icisil was correct. You are the one obsessing over a disease that is very survivable, which is a sign of being mentally unwell.

Working Dog
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 17, 2020 4:01 pm

Some folks need to grow up and think like adults regarding mortality. Covid-19 primarily kills the aged with multiple comorbidities. The lockdowns will soon be seen, if not already, to be far more deadly than the virus, especially for anyone under the age of 60 or so.

John Endicott
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 18, 2020 3:48 am

Bruce stop projecting. icisil is spot on. The mortality rate is very low (and extremely low for the young and otherwise healthy). Do you obsess over automobile deaths? by your logic you’re retarded if you don’t because tens of thousands in the US die every year in automobile accidents. Do you obsess over drug overdose deaths? by your logic you’re retarded if you don’t because tens of thousands in the US die every year from drug overdoses. Do you obsess over home fire deaths? by your logic you’re retarded if you don’t because thousands in the US die every year in home fires.

The fact is lost of people die from lots of different causes every year, yet we don’t obsess over the causes of those deaths. Given the mortality rate, there’s little reason to obsess over COVID any more than one obsesses over any other particular cause of annual death tolls, and in fact if anything is to be regarded as retarded it would have to be the needless obsession over an illness that has a 99+% survival rate. (note “not obsessing” does not mean “ignoring” or “doing nothing”).

icisil is spot on. you, on the other hand Bruce, are the one that is exhibiting “retarded people thinking” on this subject. (or as Working Dog so elegantly put it, you need to “grow up and think like adults regarding mortality”)

Clinton Muennich
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 17, 2020 11:49 am

It is the assumption that somebody else needs to govern my behavior, or tell me how to save myself that is at issue. If this was truly a severe disease there would not be a need to mandate masks, people would do it on their own.

Drake
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 17, 2020 5:40 pm

I have heard people use the retarded excuse that they know better then ME what is a risk to MY life telling ME not to have a Thanksgiving family gathering.

We will be having a nice Thanksgiving family dinner, just like every year. At this time NO ONE IS SICK!

If that changes, our plans may change. We will use OUR judgment, not YOURS Busy Body Bruce.

Bill Parsons
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 19, 2020 12:49 am

RE: “The key here is hospitalizations, which we know are rising rapidly.”

Hospitalizations of “Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19-Associated” patients were ticking down during the first week of November. By November 7 (the data here is one week behind) my state, Colorado, was averaging 11.7 covid-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 population. During the April 4 peak we were at 18.2. Hospitalizations due to covid, despite a few rolling surges between then and now, are fewer.

This “Covidnet” of hospitalizations across 14 states provides an interesting contrast to the graphs showing sharply spiking hospitalizations. The msm and local news prefer to impart an alarmist tone to every report, but the key question to ask about hospitalizations and deaths is whether these are patients who only secondarily test positive to covid, or whose other ailments finally became intolerable for them, forcing them to check in the the Hotel California despite the real risks of nosocomial infection.

Typical of such alarmist graph from tonight’s news in Denver, at 2:10 :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uLLrwe9LWw

The scary headline is “Colorado Hospital Beds in Use Due to Covid-19” and it shows 1,443 total hospital beds in use, higher than at any other time since March. I would argue that “Due to…” likely means “…in addition to other patients already hospitalized…” The Covidnet figures (above), on the other hand, shows only the covid-caused internments. Nationally there were 10 hospitalizations per 100,000 in April (average of all age groups); last week we were around 6.7.

I think the “real story” unfolding has a lot to do with the near-collapse of the healthcare system, and the alarmism of the media. Nurses are now threatening strikes across the country, and hospitals hit by sudden lack of normal moneymaking procedures – electives and emergencies – have become chronically understaffed as they cut salaries and employees to manage costs. Mayo clinic, for example, had to cut 1.6 billion in employee pay after suffering 3 billion in revenue loss. How many hospital workers have been let go because of budgets in April? How many have been rehired for the successive waves of the pandemic?

CNN estimates the total number of hospitalized Covid patients currently in the U.S. at around 60,000. Whatever the current number – or their primary cause of illness- it appears that clinics and hospitals are understaffed because of some systemic flaw. It’s been seven months since America’s first wakeup call, and, if reports are to be believed, they are no better prepared in November than they were in April. The tipping point: a few thousand sick people in each state.

What should worry us all is that Dems spin the current financial-based hospital disaster into a need for more government control funded by government money. Trump has been acquiescing to this model by becoming one of the biggests spending presidents since Roosevelt. Even pre-covid he grew government at a higher rate than every president except Obama. How to fix the for-profit healthcare system is beyond me, but it should be at the top of the agenda for Republicans mulling why they’ve been out-maneuvered in the last election.

To see the Covidnet for 14 states, please select “weekly rate” and check the “overall” for population group.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

Caligula Jones
Reply to  Bill Parsons
November 19, 2020 6:09 am

As part of another answer down the thread about what bureaucrats like me count

https://coloradosun.com/2020/08/17/denver-coronavirus-deaths-heart-attack/

“Looking at data on ambulance calls in Denver, they found that, while overall calls for service went down during the stay-at-home period, the number of people dying from cardiac arrests at home shot up…. likely that people who were having heart attacks tried to brush them off to avoid going to the hospital. Without treatment, that would lead to damage in their hearts that would cause a cardiac arrest.”

Want to hazard a guess as to the difference in having a heart attack at home and not going to the hospital vs. getting to a hospital?

Oh, and as for the Mayo:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/900-mayo-clinic-staff-midwest-contracted-covid-19/story?id=74280544

Over 900 Mayo Clinic staff in Midwest have contracted COVID-19 in past 2 weeks

Francisco Fernandez
November 17, 2020 10:54 am

I did it, but I should be allowed to specify. The death was one, and was almost terminally ill with other comorbidities and on his 90’s.

In my province, the average death from/with COVID is 82yo… the average life expectancy is 80yo… go figure

Furthermore, we are wasting ~$1.5MMDD/day in testing. The only silver lining on that is that it shows, quite beautifully, empirical proof of Farr’s law.

icisil
Reply to  Francisco Fernandez
November 17, 2020 11:27 am

Covid mortality basically follows natural mortality. In other words, covid is a midget that appears only able to pick off low hanging fruit; fruit that would get picked off by something anyways.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  icisil
November 17, 2020 11:47 am

From a clinical perspective, it’s pretty much bad bedside manner for a clinician to tell the obese Type 2 diabetic with asthma and high BP that they are “low hanging fruit.”
Even if they are thinking it.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 18, 2020 7:22 am

Reminds me of the scene in “The Crown” where King George VI is dying of “lung blockages”.

A doctor eventually gathers the nerve to tell the Royal Household that its time to “put a name to those blockages”.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  icisil
November 18, 2020 7:19 am

We had a very mild flu season here in Canada two years ago. So, basically, most of those dying of COVID survived that flu season…and got another year of life.

Alex
November 17, 2020 10:55 am

2% death probability on average.
Not so much. It is not a black death.
However, it is not so low to be disregarded.
I know one person who died and another one who is seriously ill.

MarkG
Reply to  Alex
November 17, 2020 12:37 pm

More like 0.2% in the general population.

And pretty much zero for people under fifty years old. Hence most of those who die from it already having exceeded the average lifespan.

Hank Runningbird
November 17, 2020 10:56 am

I think people are too well nourished today for this to be a real thing, unless it’s been weaponized deliberately for a worldwide political purpose. It’s much easier for the god-state to just classify as many deaths, no matter the real cause, to covid. Next is the gruesome “models” that are reported as measured fact which have nothing to do with reality. Isn’t it amazing that the same people like Mr Gatesofhell who are such big “population control” backers who are so concerned with everyone’s health and want to save us all with their vaccines etc, the logic is contradictory on the surface but has a terrible revelation underneath. Those empty ER videos on yt are probably all gone now by decree. It’s empty here has been for a long time, the Navajos have their own ambulances that pickup their people in the border towns and take them to some offsite offres place for “processing”. Hospitals etc get lots and lots of extra money for every diagnosis, hm no conflict there! Sheesh.

November 17, 2020 10:56 am

Big Medical doesn’t know??

Andrew

littlepeaks
November 17, 2020 10:59 am

I’m so confused (as usual). Per BioNTech’s news release a few weeks ago, “Pfizer’s partner in the vaccine is German company BioNTech. Ugur Sahin, MD, BioNTech co-founder and CEO, said in the release that researchers will keep collecting data until 164 confirmed cases have been studied.” And “… the primary “endpoint” of the clinical trials is to evaluate confirmed cases 7 days after the second dose of the vaccine. Pfizer will also include a secondary endpoint of evaluating confirmed cases 14 days after the second dose.”
This is out of the 43,000 people enrolled in their clinical trial. That mean’s 21,500 have received the placebo. The infection rate seems kind of low. And I have similar comments about the Moderna-vaccine results released yesterday.
I know that this would cost money and would be outside the scope of the trial, but it would be neat if another group of people would be added, equal to the number given placebos in the trial, but th3e last group would be given a placebo injection, and told that’s what they’re given, to see if the “placebo effect’ influences the outcome.
OT–couple of other comments about the vaccine — I read that the vaccines need to be kept in dry ice. What is all this dry-ice going to do as to the amount of co2 in our atmosphere? Also, if people who are in the study groups opt to receive the real vaccine, when available, how is this going to affect the studies?

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  littlepeaks
November 17, 2020 12:24 pm

The dry ice is just cryogenically distilled from the air or (better) from a CO2 concentrated source like a combustion exhaust flue. So the real CO2 emissions are not the dry ice (that is net zero), but the likely fossil fuel energy needed to perform the work for chilling/refrigeration and distillation processes.

All clinical/pharmacology/vaccine studies employ professional statisticians to help design the study’s group enrollment sizes. The study Experimental group size and the placebo-control group size must be large enough to ensure sufficient “power” exists at the end -point in the expected results to draw statistically sound conclusions on efficacy. Ahead of time, during the study design phase the statisticians calculate how many must get sick in with COVID in the control group to compare that number to the Experimental group to draw conclusion on efficacy and that that conclusion is statically solid. These numbers are documented in the study design for approval. This ensuring sufficient statistical power is all part of any study certification and registration process to the NIH.

Having an under-powered study is just a huge waste of money if insufficient numbers were enrolled in order to make a sound conclusion at the designated end-point.

AndyHce
Reply to  littlepeaks
November 17, 2020 10:15 pm

Dry ice?
Dean Koontz’s Jane Hawk.
adjusted

Rick
November 17, 2020 11:00 am

My two teenagers had it. Didn’t know anything about it till after a week of the sniffles they couldn’t taste anything.

Nobody else in the household had had anything despite the poor hygiene and shared cups, leading us to believe we were exposed and had something in January when my wife had a terrible cold that lasted weeks.

Lots of acquaintances have had it, siblings, most of my elderly uncles and aunts, lots of people at work. And most cases very mild. I know of a small handful of hospitalizations and one death.

littlepeaks
Reply to  Rick
November 17, 2020 12:11 pm

I also had “something” in January, but think it was the norovirus, which had been running rampant in our area. I felt like I got run over by a truck, and my scalp was sore (for me that’s an indication that I’m very sick). I didn’t feel like getting off the couch all day. Surprisingly, the next day I felt fine, but things tasted kind of strange that day.

navy bob
Reply to  littlepeaks
November 17, 2020 7:19 pm

littlepeaks – Sore scalp always meant the flu for me, along with knees aching, couch-ridden, truck runover feeling. Same symptoms ever since i was a kid, long before China had biowarfare labs.
Always thought norovirus was a GI, diarrheal-type disease.

Reply to  Rick
November 17, 2020 1:18 pm

I was running significantly short of breath in Aug-Sep time frame … felt like pneumonia, could hear bubbles pop on a full exhausting of the lungs … first noted the lack of bloodstream O2 when I tried mowing tall grass in the backyard and could not ‘breath’ enough to satisfy my need for O2 … had been bicycling since March, so had built up some additional lung capacity up to that point, then the C-19 hit … back to normal now. No shortage of lung capacity/O2 to blood now. Never seemed to have a lost of taste.

Mark A Luhman
Reply to  Rick
November 17, 2020 5:13 pm

I think the wife and I had it in March, three week headache and six week recovery time. Could not stay warm or cool during the first three weeks. Both of tested negative for antibodies but the way we had it from what I here it that does not mean much, it looks like most of the testing is at best a guess. We both have bad lungs, thank God it did not settle in there, I did suck on the emergency inhaler more than normal during that time. GI track was touchy also. Though I had got back to the super lacteous/gluten intolerance problems again those clear after six weeks. Had far worse problem in August, something with 30% fatality rate, I was luck it was not a bad as it could have been. COVID no longer scares me, my other problem does!

George Tetley
November 17, 2020 11:04 am

Paul
Think, what did it do to the election
The media won the election with the C19 BS
The in person voted landslide for Trump.

Mike Lowe
November 17, 2020 11:05 am

We knew that politics and climate had become intermingled, but now it seems it is politics and health as well. The usual scare tactics from the media, all of whom saw this as a means of eliminating Trump rather than Covid, is my interpretation! Anything to destroy the world’s economy! Here in New Zealand, the timing was superb in aiding the election of a far-left government with daily television appearances by our very own Florence Nightingale, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Now we face the unpleasant medication!

Robert of Texas
November 17, 2020 11:11 am

My wife works in a hospital in the DFW (Texas) area – she can point you to the sick people. They are filling up the ER to the point that social distancing just doesn’t apply anymore. They are sometimes forming lines outside the ER doors. They are filling the hospital beds. According to my wife, it is now worse then last July at her hospital.

And the strangest thing is I would feel exactly as the author does without this external insight into what is going on. Nobody I directly know has contracted the disease (or at least know they have contracted the disease). I suspect the disease is mostly clustered around social groups that I am not a member of, but I do not doubt the disease is out there and spreading.

As a thought experiment, let’s say the disease eventually kills 1 in 600 people in the U.S. (that is less than 0.2%). I know about 30 people directly of which I would notice they are missing. So the chance of one of my direct associates/friends dying in this case is about 1 in 20 – and that assumes the deaths are spread evenly through the population, which isn’t likely. So while the number of deaths is staggering, it’s still a very small number of people considering the size of the population.

Simon
Reply to  Robert of Texas
November 17, 2020 2:28 pm

Robert of Texas
“I suspect the disease is mostly clustered around social groups that I am not a member of….”
You only have to look at the White House and how quickly and efficiently it has moved through there to see what happens what you drop your guard.

Drake
Reply to  Simon
November 17, 2020 5:55 pm

Simon,

TRUMP! and the White House staff virus cases started AFTER the Cleveland debate where MULTIPLE of the Debate Committee staff tested positive for the virus after the debate but BEFORE the TRUMP! team. A super spreader event surrounding the meetings setting up the debate, but only among those who met with the TRUMP! team.

No one who coordinated with the Biden team got the virus.

What a coincidink.

I know this because our great media reported on this, NOT!

Simon
Reply to  Drake
November 17, 2020 8:31 pm

Umm No… Trump got it (and the people around him) because they were carefree in their attitude to this highly infectious disease. He scoffed at those who wore masks (in particular Biden) and minimised the risks. In short he got bitten.

But I” humour you… who were these debate committee members who infected him?

Drake
Reply to  Simon
November 18, 2020 5:27 am

I stated STAFF not committee members. Nice try. You don’t think the higher ups who planned the super spreader event would allow themselves to become infected, do you? It is always the foot soldiers who are put in harm’s way, not the leftist mucky-mucks.

Look it up. I put “Cleveland Debate Staff” in Google and it completed “test positive”. Just click, read and learn.

So Umm No. If it was all TRUMP!’s fault, why did the debate staff get sick? It was an intentional action meant to infect the TRUMP! team. The problem was the White House apparently did not have a “readiness” team preceding his staff taking swabs of all surfaces to which they would be exposed. If they had, they would have discovered the contamination purposely placed on surfaces to initiate the spread of the virus. Wearing a mask or “social distancing” does NOTHING to protect a person from surface contamination. So now we have the correlation of meetings at the Cleveland debate location and numerous people getting the virus.

As we know from leftist climate science, correlation = causation. The Cleveland debate facility was the source of the virus spreading into the TRUMP! staff AND the debate staff members.

Just cover your eyes and ears Simon, nothing to see or hear here!

Simon
Reply to  Simon
November 18, 2020 10:49 am

So nothing to do with the RRR (Russian Roulette Rallies)he continually held against the advice of his staff, including the infamous Rose Garden event.
Read all about it….
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/19/seeing-rose-garden-superspreader-convocation-as-a-never-event/

Of you can believe some BS about the Dirty Dems setting out to infect the poor guy. Still, if they were out to infect him, given his blindingly stupid carefree behaviour(including that of his trailer trash family) he was an easy target. Silly him I say.

Tom Foley
Reply to  Robert of Texas
November 17, 2020 3:46 pm

Thanks Robert. After reading your comment, I went back to the survey, but considered all illness and all deaths among my family and close acquaintances over the last 6 months or so. My answers: 2, 1, 1. The death was an elderly women. My point is that in western countries we are fortunate not to experience a high death rate among our family and friends. Even with an epidemic, we may not know anyone who dies. Over my life, I can think of only one person I knew who died of influenza, and that was an 88 year old, after a serious operation. Apart from natural deaths due to old age, the highest cause of death among family and friends has been car accidents, followed by cancer.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Robert of Texas
November 18, 2020 4:21 pm

Robert of Texas

“So while the number of deaths is staggering, it’s still a very small number of people considering the size of the population.”

That’s a very good observation. Kip’s survey may be of some scientific use, but probably more suited to one studying some variation of the ‘incredulity fallacy’ (the belief that a proposition must be false because it contradicts one’s personal experience), rather than one studying the spread rate of Covid 19.

Latitude
November 17, 2020 11:11 am

Up until last week, I could say I only knew two people….me and my eye doctor I caught it from…..way back at the end of March first of April…no, I couldn’t get tested….the criteria was “have you been to a Chinese wh0re house in the past 2 weeks”….he went to the hosp and tested pos
…but I’m 100% sure…..that I’m 99% sure…it was what I had

Last week our neighbor went to the ER….couldn’t breath, coughing….she tested pos….and is the poster child….late 80’s, way over weight, diabetic…..kept her in ER one day…immediately started her on antibodies and remdesivir, maybe some other things I’m not sure…..second say she was out of intensive care…..4th day she called, said she was fine…..bored out of her mind…..and waiting on them to dismiss her

Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 11:14 am

The part that I don’t understand are the voluntary drive-up/walk-in testing sites.

Why would any healthy person volunteer to go get tested? If you think about it, it makes no sense except in some very special cases.

– You can be negative today, but get exposed an hour later and be infected/positive the next day when you get the results from yesterday’s test telling you “negative.” A PCR test for a highly contagious respiratory virus is simply a snapshot of a moment in time. It says nothing about your status past that time point.

– The nasal swab PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 variously have reported specificities (false-positive rate) of between 2% to somewhat below 1%. Because of that, I have to laugh every time I read the local Tucson Pravda when they give the latest testing results from UofA students and faculty. It is usually something like “631 people were tested last week and 3 were found +ive with COVID.” I just laugh. That is probably mostly the FAR rearing its ugly statistical head, because they never come back and say if those 3 positives were retested and the results of that. I know that. I spent years doing RT-PCR work and I know how occasionally one sample out of dozens will go wrong, even sometimes controls where a microtube sample was supposed to be either + or – but wasn’t.

– If you are feeling ill with cold-like symptoms, getting in your car to go get tested it nuts. Just stay home. Tell those who’ve been around you they might have been exposed and to watch for symptoms. Because…. if you are sick go get tested and it confirms that what you already guessed, “Well congratulations,” you just put a small army of contact tracers onto your household and acquaintances including maybe that your barber/hair stylist you visited the day before, and anyone else you may have had a causal conversation with in the last 72 hours. Contact tracers from the local health authority who may demand all those contacts isolate for 2 weeks with a threat of legal enforcement if they refuse. Simply nuts for what is largely a cold virus.

Joel Snider
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 12:28 pm

It’s because people are following the narratives – they’ve been told that asymptomatic carriers are the new problem – same way their guilt-tripping everyone who’s not personally scared for themselves into obeying the new fascist dictators that used to be called governors.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel Snider
November 17, 2020 1:21 pm

The irony is the entire US Civil Rights movement that began in the 1940’s, that the Democrats today like to Crow about, was about stopping the civil rights abuses coming out of states and local governments almost exclusively run by Democrats. History repeats.

TonyG
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 1:27 pm

History repeats, yet we (collectively) never seem to learn.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 18, 2020 4:03 pm

In the 8th grade we all took a TB test. I was the only one in my class to test positive.
Why? Because I’d had tubercular meningitis when I was 18 months old. I’ll test positive for the rest of my life.
How many of these positive Covid-19 tests are people that had it and recovered months ago before testing was widely available?
They may have just thought they had a cold (if even that) at the beginning of the hysteria.

I’m 66, still work in an essential job. I’ve never been tested. At the beginning of this mess, I had a couple of the symptoms of being sick. (The Covid-19 symptom list was pretty short back then.) I called in to work and was told to call the health department. I called and was cleared to go back to work. Since then they’ve added symptoms to the list. Those very same symptoms would put me in quarantine. Did I have it? I don’t know. But if I took a test tomorrow and it came back positive … do I have it or did I have it and recovered 6 months ago?
Even if I took a test and it came back negative, I’d have to stay in quarantine for 14 days.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  Gunga Din
November 18, 2020 7:25 pm

“The Covid-19 symptom list was pretty short back then”

A few weeks ago I was at my local pharmacy picking up a script. LONG lines and chaos as they had just started to give out the flu shots. Nobody knew where to stand (social distancing), etc.

I had to wait and was right beside a poster about the flu shot. Listed TWENTY-SEVEN symptoms of COVID19 that you should be aware of so you can report any. Yeah, beyond fever (easy measurable) and “can’t breath lying down”…pretty much every other one was basically either “its getting cold out” (i.e., sniffles, sore throat, cough) or in my case, getting old (aches and pains, etc.).

I can understand an overabundance of caution, but c’mon, things have to MEAN something, or they mean nothing and people will tune out.

Scissor
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Somebody said Kroger was handing out gift certificates to people to be tested. So, there are some financial incentives to this.

Steve Case
November 17, 2020 11:17 am

Took the survey
An older couple good friends.
A shirt tail in-law that I know and would probably recognize.
An older couple at my son’s wedding that I wouldn’t recognize.

Like you I ask people if they know anyone, and so far zero.

Considering the reported rate of infection, a statistician should be able to say that a random U.S. citizen is likely to know of x number of cases among family friends & acquaintances.

November 17, 2020 11:18 am

Its big in the cities for sure. My nephew is in London and knows several elderly people who have died.
Out here not even in a village, I don’t know anyone locally who has died at all, or got it.

Tony Sullivan
November 17, 2020 11:20 am

FWIW from my own personal circle of family/friends:

I do not know of a single friend who has/did have Covid. Zero.

Our 2nd daughter, her husband and their 1-year old daughter at the time contracted Covid through their daughter bringing it home from daycare. The three of them quarantined for 2 weeks. The baby had cold symptoms for about a week, but never overly sick. The son-in-law felt mildly ill for 2-3 days, but nothing that stopped him from normal daily life. Our daughter was sick for 2 weeks and as she described it, it felt like having a mild hangover from drinking the night before. All 3 have fully recovered and have dismissed it as nothing more than an annual flu. Life goes on for them and they laugh at the media continuing to portray the virus like it’s some out of control death wish.

November 17, 2020 11:21 am

Two weeks ago in Bavaria, they where wondering about the strong increase of positive tested people. Testing again they realised 58 out of 60 test were wrong positive.
In general, the complete charge of tests had to been retracted, but I didn’t read about.
Maybe no wonder the number of “infected” increases.

Corona breakdown in Bavaria: 58 out of 60 positive tests wrong – Munich
According to a newspaper report, a large Bavarian laboratory has produced a series of false positive results in corona tests.

This was noticed during inspections in a hospital in Taufkirchen / Vils in Upper Bavaria, reported the “Münchner Merkur” on Wednesday. There 58 out of 60 positive tests turned out to be false

Steve Case
November 17, 2020 11:24 am

I should add that I have an elderly relative, she’s 84 and has been locked up in her nursing home room for the last six months. Visiting her or taking her out to her vacation cottage for a weekend is out of the question.

Johnny Cuyana
November 17, 2020 11:34 am

I have been looking for the many media reports regarding the many — read: extraordinary, beyond typically seasonal volumes — Chi-Com flu cases, hospitalizations, deaths of the EMPLOYEES at:

[1] your local grocery stores;
[2] your local convenience stores;
[3] your local pharmacies;
[4] your local WalMarts, Home Depots and all the “Big Box” stores; and,
[5] etc. for all other services which are open and exposed to countless “general public” encounters.

And, by the way, where are the reports of the MASSIVE USA WUHAN SURGE — attributable to our election day encounters at the polling stations — since our in-person-election?

This also goes for the athletes — mostly on collegiate and professional levels — where I, for one, read every day, it seems, about another 2, 3, 4 or whatever, that have tested “positive”; however, so far, I have heard of “0” CASES which have actually been hospitalized, let alone, have died. [Thank God.]

One would think, in reading much of the media, that these massive numbers of frontline workers, with such disproportionately heavy and intense exposure, would be flooding the aid stations; with many even dying. Where are they? Do they exist?

Hmmm … maybe, I am just reading the wrong media sources, but, so far, since we here in the USA have been well into this pandemic, I have seen “0” such articles.

I recognize that I could be wrong on this assessment — hardly, do I read “everything” — so, certainly, I am open to receiving and reviewing links for the appropriate articles and overall info. TIA.

Bryan A
Reply to  Johnny Cuyana
November 17, 2020 1:35 pm

Looking at the data from Johns-Hopkins
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Their daily chart in the lower right corner displays the tabulated daily cases (as reported)
Accordingly, the data indicates
11-1 76k new cases
11-3 123k new cases (voting day)
11-4 102k new cases
11-5 125k new cases
11-6 124k new cases
11-7 128k new cases
11-8 109k new cases
11-9 119k new cases
11-10 140k new cases (7 days post voting)
11-11 143k new cases
11-12 160k new cases
11-13 177k new cases
11-14 166k new cases

The Johns-Hopkins data does appear to contain a jump in infection rate 7 days after voting
(Caveat) Depending on how accurate their data is

Caligula Jones
Reply to  Johnny Cuyana
November 18, 2020 7:29 am

“athletes — mostly on collegiate and professional levels”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/brennan/2020/11/15/masters-dustin-johnson-covid-19-augusta-national/6305601002/

It was just a month ago that Johnson spent 11 days by himself in a Las Vegas hotel room, quarantining after a positive COVID test. He had “very minor” COVID symptoms, he said.

“I felt like I had a cold. A little bit of a fever for maybe 36 hours. But after that, I felt fine. The worst part about it was the quarantining in the room for so long.”

or

Freddie Freeman goes from coronavirus to NL MVP after stellar 2020 season

https://sports.yahoo.com/freddie-freeman-goes-from-coronavirus-to-nl-mvp-after-stellar-2020-season-235241693.html

MrGrimNasty
November 17, 2020 11:34 am

I live at the epicenter of the UK outbreak, well we recorded the earliest clusters locally, although it is likely it was present in the UK months before undetected.

My town has a population of 110,000 and is known for it’s high elderly population. Since the start of the year there have been 86 deaths with CV19 on the certificate, 1144 other deaths. So 7% of deaths had CV19, 78/100,000.

A large proportion of the deaths in the first wave were in care homes. The average age of death with CV19 in the UK is well over 80, it’s actually higher than the average age of death.

I know no one who had it/has it/died of it – or of anything else!

An interesting fact on the news today is that there are no excess deaths in London during the second wave, although there are in other areas of the country.

navy bob
November 17, 2020 11:43 am

I’ve been asking the same question whenever I’m around someone new. Answer is nearly always no, or at worst, yes, but wasn’t a big deal. One distant relative of mine by marriage in the Philippines died from COVID, but she was a doctor and was repeatedly exposed in the early stages of the pandemic. An elderly cousin in the US had a very severe case, but recovered. That’s it. Nobody else in our fairly large, widely dispersed family even knows of other cases.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  navy bob
November 17, 2020 11:58 am

Navy Bob,

Exposure the inoculating dose certainly matters. Every research immunologist who has worked with infecting animal models with virus and bacteria pathogens to study a disease pathology understands that first hand.
15 years ago, back when I was doing mouse virus immunology experiments, we had to be very careful to give the correct and same amount of virus to all the mice in the test cage, because infecting with too much or too little virus (I was doing Vaccinia Virus at the time) would wildly skew the results from careless lack of ensuring the correct viral titer. It was very easy to give too much virus to a mouse and then it die while the rest got sick and recovered. It is very hard to study the memory immune response on a dead mouse.

Chas
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 18, 2020 12:51 pm

Joel O’Bryan, interesting — I have been surprised by the general similarity in shape of a insecticide dose: probability of mortality graph and a (insect biocontrol) viral dose: mortality graph.
It seems (to casual onlooker) that nearly all the action occurs over two orders of magnitude or less.
Do mammal’s virus dose: mortality curves show a similar sort of behaviour?

Michael Jankowski
November 17, 2020 11:49 am

To be fair, while I am regularly aware of people having the flu, I never recall anyone that I know dying from it…yet it kills some 40k people every year in the US.

MrGrimNasty
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
November 17, 2020 1:25 pm

I think that’s the point, the numbers appear big, but they need to be put in context.

Apparently getting on for 3 Million people die in the USA each year, 600K in the UK.

On the outer Barcoo
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
November 17, 2020 1:32 pm

And remember that many people had flu shots. Was that ever recorded?

Dave Levitt
November 17, 2020 11:50 am

I know of two acquaintances with serious COVID complications.
Our across the street neighbor is an EMT, and was in the hospital for about a month [including over a week on a respirator] back in June. He tried going back to work in September, and ended up back in the hospital. Now on disability.

My wife’s ortho surgeon also was hospitalized in late spring, and seems to have had a personality/attitude change. She will be seeing a different surgeon for the other knee replacement.

michael jarosz
November 17, 2020 11:50 am

If masks are so great, lock downs work, and social distancing is good then why are cases still occurring?

Death rates are significantly down since March, Is it because treatments are more effective or democrat governors quit putting infected people in nursing homes?

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  michael jarosz
November 17, 2020 12:00 pm

Many of the most susceptible have already been exposed, and since recovered or died is one hypothesis.

Tom Foley
Reply to  michael jarosz
November 17, 2020 3:10 pm

@Michael Jarosz. Maybe because a lot of people are refusing to wear masks, breaking lockdowns and not social distancing? Videos coming out of the USA appear to show large gatherings of unmasked people standing very close together. Are these faked?

Re social distancing, the experience has made me more aware of way personal space works, or doesn’t. Even with the best of intentions, it is hard to keep a distance from people, even strangers. A local cafe sells coffee through a slot in the door. There are painted marks on the footpath (sidewalk!) 1.5m apart to help people distance while waiting. Even so, people tend to drift together as they chat or as they pass to collect their coffee. Some individuals tend to move towards others unconsciously, even if constantly reminded! An opportunity for an interesting research project?

MarkG
Reply to  Tom Foley
November 17, 2020 4:43 pm

According to the CDC a couple of weeks ago, nearly 90% of people who caught The Corona recently habitually wore masks.

They don’t work to protect people, which is why The Narrative switched to ‘but they protect others from you.’ And they probably don’t even do that.

Muzzling the population is the goal, not protecting anyone from a disease they have a 99.75% chance of surviving.

November 17, 2020 11:55 am

I have never been concerned about catching the SARS CoV2 virus, but seeing all the people around me wearing masks – even outside – makes me a little nervous. Fear combined with uncertainty can be contagious. So I don’t wear a mask outside, but I do in stores and building lobbies. When I walk down the block without a mask, people veer off the sidewalk and walk in the street against on coming traffic. They are more likely to get killed by the crazy, too fast drivers than the virus! Ironic isn’t it?
As far as my susceptibility goes, I am 66 now and used to work in an active solid waste landfill for 16 years and then inspected asbestos contaminated sites and oil spill sites wreaking of petroleum volatile vapors. Nothing has killed me yet. It was much more of a danger working around the bulldozer and compactor operators at night at the landfill, than any other hazard. However, the operators were trained to watch to government monitors on the ground. I made sure to keep up good relations with all of the heavy equipment operators.
Aside, from all this, I was usually covered in a light dusting of leachate saturated dust from standing there monitoring the work. Even the inside of my monitoring SUV and my office had a veneer of this nasty dust. My colleagues worked under the same conditions. No one cared and we were never told to wear masks or respirators! The leachate, itself, was generated at the open work face as rain fell on the torn up garbage consisting of exposed baby and adult diapers, medical waste, rat poop, dead animals needing to be buried, household garbage, spent hypodermic needles, old smoke detectors with Americium still inside, urine from the equipment operators, and more!!!! I’m sure we all inhaled SARS, influenza, cold and other viruses, multitudes of bacteria species and maybe a few parisites. BUT!!!!! I only had a few colds while at the landfill in 16 years and no colds or anything during my latter 16 years of other environmental work. Go figure.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Raphael Ketani
November 17, 2020 1:31 pm

“Raphael Ketani November 17, 2020 at 11:55 am

I have never been concerned about catching the SARS CoV2 virus, but seeing all the people around me wearing masks – even outside – makes me a little nervous.”

It actually makes me laugh because it is completely ridiculous given the fact most of the face nappies are not medically, N95, rated. IIRC, I have seen only one person wearing a mask that had “N95” printed on it. Whether it was N95 rated or not I have no idea. I see many wear the “re-useable” types which are completely useless.

I have worked throughout the whole sc@m, using public transport, going to the shops etc etc. I do not know a single person who was infected and a lot of my family work in nursing including aged-care facilities.

Michael Jankowski
November 17, 2020 11:56 am

What we were supposed to do was “flatten” the curve below what our hospitals and ICUs could handle. Instead, we implemented regulations and guidelines that suppressed cases far below that level. The lack of herd immunity is biting us in the butt now, especially in states which were not hit hard previously.

It’s great if you are isolated like New Zealand and can stave-off any influx of infections until vaccines are available. That isolation doesn’t exist here in the US.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
November 17, 2020 12:04 pm

Even in NZ they have to keep the rest of the world out until a large part of the population has been vaccinated with a successful vaccine. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, that is probably late 2021 to early 2022 (the SH summer after this one). How long can NZ economically stand to do that before the costs to mental health (suicides, alcoholism, domestic violence) and financial health of the entire country outweighs the potential of COVID deaths?

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 4:38 pm

Joel
I wonder how effective NZ has been. I read an article yesterday that China was complaining that meat and its packaging from NZ was contaminated with the virus. If the claim is true, there may be a large number of asymptomatic cases in NZ that the government is unaware of.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 19, 2020 7:55 am

Why would it take so long to vaccinate such a small number of people?

Don Jindra
November 17, 2020 12:06 pm

I really wish this site would stick to climate issues. Every time it veers off into other things — particularly politics — it looses credibility.

Matthew Schilling
Reply to  Don Jindra
November 17, 2020 12:31 pm

“looses credibility” Irony alert!

Nick Graves
Reply to  Don Jindra
November 17, 2020 12:43 pm

As if climate isn’t blatantly political?

This is the other side of the same coin.

Unless you can furnish a more plausible explanation.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Don Jindra
November 17, 2020 1:01 pm

There are a clear parallels between Climate Change Public policies being enacted and COVID-19 control policies.
COVID-19 lockdowns are decimating economies and lives but doing little to stop the infection outside of a few special cases like islands (NZ) where the population can isolate itself from the world. Lockdowns at best only slow the virus spread. Then when lockdowns ease, as they must, the virus cases spike again. Duh.

Climate Change policies are decimating energy affordability and thus compromising both current and future living standards for the general populations in both the industrialized countries and developing countries while doing little to nothing to slow emissions and their alleged role in global warming.

Both afflictions claim to have group of “science experts” that must be followed. Both while seemingly starting out justified, have each become little more than Trojan Horse commandeered by Elitists for a path to Global Socialism.

Meanwhile Communist Chinese, both the source of COVID-19 virus and delayed warnings to the West about its spread last December and the biggest CO2 emitter by far, plans its path to World Supremacy with the slow demise of the US and the West’s economies under COVID lockdowns and ruinous Climate energy policies. And with the slow demise of economic might, military might will follow.
Coincidence????

Joseph Bastardi
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 5:22 pm

my book talks exactly about that
phonyclimatewar.com

eyesonu
Reply to  Don Jindra
November 17, 2020 2:10 pm

@ Don,

Why did you read it? Why did you comment? Why are your panties in a twist?

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Don Jindra
November 17, 2020 4:55 pm

“Don Jindra November 17, 2020 at 12:06 pm

I really wish this site would stick to climate issues.”

Have you read the about page?

John Endicott
Reply to  Don Jindra
November 18, 2020 5:56 am

I really wish this site would stick to climate issues. Every time it veers off into other things — particularly politics — it looses credibility

Hate to break it to you, Donny-boy, but “climate issues” are the number one most political thing this site covers. I’d say you loose all credibility by pretending that isn’t so, but that would falsely imply that you ever had any credibility to begin with. Go back under your bridge, concern trolls aren’t welcome in polite society.

John Bell
November 17, 2020 12:08 pm

The media blew it way up to make Trump look bad, IMHO. The media are grasping at straws.

Vuk
November 17, 2020 12:09 pm

There is high degree of exuberance here in the UK about supposedly 94.5% efficacy of newly launched Covid vaccine. I went to over to Wikipedia and looked it up. Company was established September 2010, i.e. 10 years ago.
It states: “As of November 2020, Moderna was valued at $35 billion, and while none of its drugs had been approved, its COVID-19 vaccine candidate was close to obtaining emergency use authorization. ….
In 2014, Moderna moved to focus on lower-margin vaccines, given that an mRNA vaccine – efficacy issues aside – will always stimulate a level of antibody development in subjects…
In March 2013, Moderna and AstraZeneca signed a five-year exclusive option agreement to discover, develop, and commercialize mRNA for treatments in the therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, metabolic and renal diseases, and selected targets for cancer. The agreement included a $240 million upfront payment to Moderna ….As of May 2020, only one candidate has passed Phase I trials….
In January 2014, Moderna and Alexion Pharmaceuticals entered a $125 million deal for orphan diseases in need of therapies….However, by 2017, the program with Alexion had been scrapped as the animal trials showed that Moderna’s treatment would never be safe enough for use in humans ….” , etc.
Then there is this
‘Bad Optics’ Or Something More? Moderna Executives’ Stock Sales Raise Concerns
“Taylor said Moderna’s stock-selling practices appear well outside the norm, and raise questions about the company’s internal controls to prevent insider trading. “On a scale of one to 10, one being less concerned and 10 being the most concerned,” said Daniel Taylor, an associate professor of accounting at the Wharton School, “this is an 11.”
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/04/908305074/bad-optics-or-something-more-moderna-executives-stock-sales-raise-concerns
Moderna should consider suing Wikipedia and NPR.org for casting doubt on activities of the company.

Vuk
Reply to  Vuk
November 17, 2020 1:06 pm

P.S Survey: 0,0,0

gary@erko
November 17, 2020 12:12 pm

But it’s so exciting being alive in a historically notable time. That’s what’s driving it for the sheep populace.

Kevin McNeill
November 17, 2020 12:22 pm

I live on Vancouver Island in BC Canada,our health area has 8000,000+- population, these are the stats.
Death rate per 1000 population
All BC 0.08
VI 0.01

“Cases” per 1000 population
All BC 5.67
VI 0.43

Active cases per 1000 population
All BC 1.51
VI 0.08

Hospitalization per 1000 population
All BC 0.05
VI 0.00

ICU per 1000 population
All BC 0.01
VI 0.00

Last week we had an “outbreak”, 5 people of the local hospital staf tested positive, youy would have though the end of the world was nigh. The important point, which was played down, was that of the 5 only 2 were hospitalized.

We are living in a looney bin

Bryan A
Reply to  Kevin McNeill
November 17, 2020 1:40 pm

Nope you’re living on a fairly isolated island similar to Hawaii. The Loony Bin of which you speak is the CONUS area directly south of you. It gets crazier the farther left you travel.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Kevin McNeill
November 17, 2020 4:43 pm

Kevin,
When it is not obvious why a person or government acts a certain way, look for unobvious reasons.

n.n
November 17, 2020 12:28 pm

Case include past (e.g. viral fragments, antibodies), probable (e.g. symptoms), possible (e.g. proximity), and progressive (i.e. disease).

Latitude
Reply to  n.n
November 17, 2020 5:55 pm

cases include the fast test….and it’s so inaccurate it’s worthless

Kemaris
November 17, 2020 12:34 pm

I know two people (and know of a third) who have had Covid. One of them was bad enough they put her in a medically induced coma and put her on a ventilator. When they tried to wake her up, they found she had experienced a couple of strokes which had not been noticed, because coma. While I have not seen the death certificate, icthink we can be confident that this was listed as a Covid death (in California) even though she had fully recovered from Covid. Well, at least the hospital got a bunch of extra federal money for the Covid diagnosis and ventilator usage.

Kevin kilty
November 17, 2020 12:39 pm

Obviously there are more sick people at present than earlier in the year, as there are more in hospital.

But…

I am retired, and am still around quite a few college students due to research, and so I know of several kids who have tested positive. Yet, they never developed any symptoms, and though they exposed all of their roomates, none of those developed symptoms either. These seem to me to be the very definition of a false positive. Probably the most common conversation that I overhear around town is the same and ends with “no rhyme or reason.”

If a students tests positive, then they must quarantine for ten days, after which they are considered immune and do not test again. You can all imagine how this policy might go wrong. Then there were false negatives, and students who figured out “hacks” to keep from being tested when they had symptoms. It has been something like the Keystone cops around here, and the epidemic has had a wild ride for the past 11 weeks, but no one is really sure how many people are truly sick. Never mind. Our public officials are very angry that we mere mortals cannot keep the virus at bay.

I suggested just sending students home to put an end to all this, and strangely the University began doing just that last Friday. We will see in a couple of weeks how much difference it makes to stop doing 15,000+ tests per week on people without symptoms. I will report back.

Kevin kilty
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 18, 2020 6:29 am

I took the survey but the numerical categories are broad. I know no one at present sick enough to stay home, I have known only one who was actually sick enough to stay home, and an older acquaintance died last summer. He had other problems. I cannot recall how many students/staff tested positive and had to quarantine, but none I recall ever showed symptoms; and part of my accounting problem is that other people were forced to isolate themselves due to having stood next to someone who tested positive — can’t sort it out. To give you an idea, I could include the freshman football team, cheer squad, wrestling team, and cross country team. As you say, it’s testing madness.

Spetzer86
Reply to  Kevin kilty
November 18, 2020 6:23 am

With a 1-5% rate of false positive rate and more than 15K tests/week, how long would it take for the majority of the student population to be sent home?

TonyG
November 17, 2020 12:44 pm

To hear it from some, all the sick people are completely overwhelming the ICU’s.

alf
November 17, 2020 12:44 pm
Waza
November 17, 2020 12:45 pm

Aged care/Nursing homes
The overall effort or quality of care in aged care homes across a region is enough to explain the difference in deaths per region.
Here in Melbourne Australia, most aged care facilities have ramped up their PPE efforts and restricted visitors. Since July they have also implemented a “voluntary” staff ban from working at more than one facility.
The extra costs are of the order of $2000-3000 per resident.
These simple efforts greatly reduce the risk of covid in aged care and thus reduce or skew the nations overall death rates.
What is becoming apparent, is that in theses facilities this years death rates will drop dramatically because the extra efforts are reducing flu deaths by 1000s. This further skews death rates.

Interesting statistical thought
Because covid mainly impacts the very old different jurisdictions based on their lockdowns will have interesting death rate and life expectancy blips when analysed in future years

November 17, 2020 12:46 pm

COVID-19 infections are very clumped. Not uniformly spread in the population. The same is true of the spreading of covid. When the R value is above one so it is increasing in the population, most infected people don’t spread it but a small number spread it to a bunch of people at super-spreading events.

So it’s not surprising that many people will not know any victims.

Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 12:46 pm

In the US DoD military active duty there are currently about 1.3 million service men and women.
Since early March testing began, there has been EXACTLY 1 (one) US military Active Duty death attributable to COVID-19.
This death was a 41 yrs old petty officer (an NCO) on the USN carrier Teddy Roosevelt who died after the ship pulled into Guam harbor with a bunch of COVID afflicted sailors.

Now the Active Duty military population by active control is a generally healthy young population compared even to the Reserve and Guard components that are older (both mean and median age, much older) and generally not as physically fit as active duty population. This is to be expected. In the US DoD Guard and Reserve there have been a total of around 8 or 9 COOVID-19 attributable deaths out of a 1.0 million serving there.

Compare all this to the 1918 Influenza where many tens of thousands of Army recruits and soldiers (18-21 yr olds) were struck down, badly sick with flu and thousands died. Now I realize this was before antibiotics that today largely prevents a secondary bacterial pneumonia mortality, but still many young healthy teenagers and young adults still die today from H1N1 and H3N2 influenza, where very few actually healthy young have died from COVID-19.

By far and away the most robust conclusion is: the H1N1 Influenza-A as a viral pathogen is far worse on a healthy than this novel corona virus with a naive-to-the-virus immune system.

And also to consider is that the US Army is seeing a spike this year in suicides in young soldiers. What are the real costs of COVID-19 versus the Responses to it by political leaders? I think intuitively we all know that answer by now.

n.n
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 12:58 pm

the US Army is seeing a spike this year in suicides in young soldiers

Why? Trump has ended Obama’s wars. He has resupplied the military. They should be training, resting, and in good spirits.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  n.n
November 17, 2020 1:11 pm

Don’t be so obviously stupid n.n with a serious subject like suicide.

Young very healthy men and women have been isolated in barracks. Their social activities eliminated by leadership told to isolate them from what for that demographic is cold. They are not allowed to travel if they are stationed in places like Ft Drum NY or out in California, by Blue State Demo-Governors stupidity.
Their deployments to AFG, Iraq, and other shitholes around the world have been lengthened to reduce travel and turn-over deployment demands.

Those all have real consequences on mental health, and thus suicides.

icisil
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 1:48 pm

“very few actually healthy young have died from COVID-19.”

Virtually always I have found those tested positive, but died of something unrelated to covid. When that’s the case the more honest media will say they died of complications from covid. Like the actor who got VAP from a ventilator, the boy band member who had acute strep, and the nurse who died of sepsis. Media said they all died of covid.

William Astley
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 18, 2020 9:59 am

In reply to: Joel O’Bryan

The US military if they know HCQ plus Zinc is an effective and safe treatment for covid, they will not let US soldiers die because of politics and they will use the HCQ, to protect service personal lives.

I see, there are more and more published peer reviewed studies that show the HCQ cocktail is a cheap and effective early treatment of covid.

And because covid is monitored by senior military leaders, the US senior military…. do not get their facts from CNN.

The US senior military will know there is deep state corruption concerning covid. The US military also have independent high tech medical research labs, that are staffed and controlled by the military with independent non political analysis and reports.

Independent analysis shows covid was a manufactured virus. It contains pieces of multiple viruses that have been modified, using AI virus software to invoke specific body responses. There was a HBO program that discussed virus AI software …. it explained how the new AI virus software works and included an interview with one of the designers of the perfect virus simulation software.

The perfect virus simulation software enables a person using an AI like system to design viruses that will have novel like features that could help or hurt people depending on the designer’s intent.

Recent research has found that covid anathesizes the throat… …. so there is little pain as it starts its infection, in the throat.

This novel special feature of covid is the reason why covid spreads so easy. The first throat infection is not as painful as normal throat infections because the covid virus has been engineered to deaden the pain at the point of first infection.

In 0.05% of the population who have a genetic mutation, covid cause the body to produce an antibody that attacks one’s own body. It is the novel feature of covid that cause weird long term serious side effects that are very difficult to treat.

The 0.05% attack the body using the body’s immune system covid novel feature, helps make people afraid of covid, due to the weird dangerous, in some cases life changing health changes.

Editor
November 17, 2020 12:48 pm

Done, Kip. And my answers were 0,0,0, thankfully.

Regards,
Bob

PS: And I’m an old fart.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 17, 2020 5:41 pm

flatulant GHG emitters you both.
Is this something I have to look forward to in old age?

Editor
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 17, 2020 6:31 pm

Joel, overcoming gravity by suspending oneself on a column of hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and methane is most entertaining.

Regards,
Bob

PS: How else do you think magicians levitate?

John Bell
November 17, 2020 12:49 pm

Along the same lines…when I hear a commercial for a pill that reduces the severity and duration of the common cold, I wonder how are they measuring this? Seems like a difficult metric to measure, impossible really.

DonM
Reply to  John Bell
November 17, 2020 2:50 pm

Granny, on the Beverly Hillbillies, had a cure for the common cold. Mr. (?) Banker was very excited about it … he would get rich, it seemed.

She cooked up some funky stuff for him, made him breath in some funky stuff, told him to drink a lot of liquids, & to stay in bed for a week or so, and he would be cured….

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 17, 2020 5:03 pm

Kip
A little anecdotal story about Vit C. Back in the days when I was teaching, I had to teach some chemistry labs to fill out my contact-hour load. One day we had a substitute teacher fill in for another chemistry professor. I had time to talk with him while supervising a lab. He had worked personally with Linus Pauling. He was a strong believer in Vit C and assured me that large doses were quite safe. He was quite convincing. For two or three years after that, I tried to abort colds by taking up to 1 gram per hour during my waking hours. There were no noticeable side effects. There was also no noticeable curative powers. I invariably ended up with a secondary bacterial infection in my upper respiratory system, and had to see a doctor for antibiotics. I finally decided that I had given Vit C a fair trial, and it didn’t live up to expectations, at least for me.

Incidentally, since I got my Prevenar-13 pneumonia vaccine, I have not had any secondary bacterial infections when I have caught a cold. That is in contrast to almost always getting secondary bacterial infections from my 20s on.

November 17, 2020 12:55 pm

The most useful vaccine so far is the Russian Sputnik, a modified adenovirus. It can be stored at room temperature. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are mRNA vaccines which require storage at -70 to -80 C, requiring expensive equipment and problematic for many countries with limited infrastructure. Hard to hear of course, regarding the racial enemy to the east, but true nonetheless.

Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 17, 2020 4:34 pm

I’ll check – I thought they said -70.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Phil Salmon
November 17, 2020 5:44 pm

I would guess from biochemistry that -70ºC freezers for long term storage, but -20ºC freezers are okay for short periods < 60 days… as long as it is not a "frost-free" freezer.

Freezerology-101: Frost free freezers are bad for biosamples because of the defrost cycle (periodic heating) they use.

OweninGA
November 17, 2020 12:57 pm

I have had a few family members catch it, but all have recovered. The first two were a police office and his nurse wife. The next cousin works in schools, and a niece who works in schools. Then a nephew brought it home from high school and gave it to his dad and brother. All recovered.

Andy Espersen
November 17, 2020 12:58 pm

It is all so weird, really. Fact is, we know precious little about this virus. Such epidemics usually take 2 to 3 years to fully run their cause. And we are not even a year into this one. It will be a couple of years before we get to know all relevant statistics about this virus, i.e. its true fatality rate, just how dangerous it is, the ways it spreads in countries varying so hugely demographically, culturally, racially and genetically – and that on the background of enormous differences in the strictness of lockdowns and peoples’ obedience to those, etc., etc..

Looking at present European statistics, it appears as if the final death rates in the midst of this so-called second wave are all slowly merging, irrespective of the strictness of the lockdowns – or even if there were enforced lockdowns or not (viz. Sweden).

The news media are no help. All they are interested in is making fat, alarming headlines. We rely on free, independent blogs like WUWT to keep us informed (and to keep us sane!)

Paul C
November 17, 2020 12:58 pm

I am guessung that will generate data similar to the Zoe app in the UK which seems to provide accurate data about a week in advance of the official data https://covid.joinzoe.com/
The data showed the infections had levelled off before we went into the second lockdown which England is now half way through.

November 17, 2020 1:06 pm

I’m 73 and I know hundreds of people. In my whole life I’ve known only 6 people who have died. I think people mostly live forever. This whole death thing is a hype designed to make you miserable.

Sarcasm aside, the TOTAL death rate in the United States is already up 15% over 2019. That has not happened in a century. Those on this website who minimize COVID are simply too scared to admit that such a threat could exist. Yes, it is true that this is not the Black Death that killed one in three. No one says it is. But the ostrich-like attitude shown here is why HUNDREDS of times as many Americans per capita are dying of this disease then died in S. Korean, Taiwan, New Zealand and China, where the government and the people dealt with the disease as the threat it is and protected each other from it. Ideas can kill and the idea that COVID is a hype has killed and is killing hundreds of thousands if not millions.

Scissor
Reply to  Eric Lerner
November 17, 2020 4:30 pm

My calculation from CDC data is that the average of the first 6 months of data from 2020 is 14% higher than the average month in 2019. However, it appears that seasonally, the worst is over 2020, so that the monthly average for 2020 will come down.

I think that the Hong Kong flu in 1968 would be almost as high. In any case, low excess deaths one year leads to increased excess deaths the following year and vice versa. We’ll see.

Joel
Reply to  Eric Lerner
November 17, 2020 10:10 pm

Does that count your parents? You are mighty lucky. I am only 74, do not have a huge circle of friends, but I know a lot of people who have died, and some young: two suicides, car wreck, and one drug overdose.
I am sure some guys I knew in school got shipped to Vietnam. Don’t know if some didn’t come back.
This Covid is essentially harmless for young people. Let them live normal lives.

AndyHce
Reply to  Eric Lerner
November 17, 2020 11:38 pm

Eric Lerner wrote
“TOTAL death rate in the United States is already up 15% over 2019”

While I’ll readily accept it is my fault, I spent a couple of hours looking for CDC data on US total deaths. I could not find anything after 2018. I would greatly appreciate your link to information.

Ian Coleman
Reply to  Eric Lerner
November 18, 2020 9:29 am

I take your point, Mr. Lerner, but the question is, how old were the people who died? That has always been the big fraud: that COVID-19 kills people of all ages. The fact of the matter is, if you’re healthy now, the chances that you will die of COVID-19 are statistically zero.

I’m 68, and I live in a seniors’ residence. (All our tenants are independent, which is to say that none of us have health problems so severe that we need professional home care visits.) In 2019, about fifteen tenants died. The thing is that, when a tenant dies (usually suddenly; he will be fine and then hospitalized, and then dead in about ten days), no one is really surprised. This is because we understand that human beings are mortal, and that death in old age is normal and natural. Young people will tell you that all deaths are tragic, but old people know that death in old age is often a relief, as it is an end to suffering.

So what’s my point? It is this: The pandemic is nowhere nearly as tragic as is commonly believed, because so few of the dead are young or middle-aged. COVID-19 and heart disease have roughly the same age-to-mortality graph. Heart disease kills many more people than COVID, and we don’t decide to sabotage the financial and social lives of the young to prevent heart disease. COVID-19 is really just another cause of death in the elderly, to go along with the many other causes that already exist.

zack
Reply to  Eric Lerner
November 18, 2020 1:36 pm

A better question for the survey, compared to what other ailments?

I know zero covid fatalities, but 2 under 60 and 3 under 50 years old amongst my network succumbed to other causes.

That 15% increase is surely a bit of noise in a longer term statistical measure. 2 million seniors in America die each year from all causes. 80% of covid death is coming from that 65+ age group. With 500,000 alone normally coded as having died from heart disease. The other 1,500,00 from lung, cancer, liver, kidney etc. are all diseases that would, if you had them, be a co-morbid factor in your covid. You can die from one cause or the multiple complex interactions of co-morbidities, but it’s eventually got to end up registered in one CDC column or another.
So an 80 year old who passes in 2020 with covid and a bad heart will list as covid but will be reduced from the year’s heart disease numbers.
Looking back from 2025, perhaps life expectancy will have been seen to go down by some small amount, but the compression of a few months death will likely disappear in a three year rolling average.

Why the message from public health to wash and mask doesn’t mention vitamin D as another possible, cheap prophylactic perplexes.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  zack
November 18, 2020 1:45 pm

“So an 80 year old who passes in 2020 with covid and a bad heart will list as covid but will be reduced from the year’s heart disease numbers.”

And that 80 year old probably survived a very mild flu season last year, yet very few would be indecent enough to point out he/she got another year of life out of it…

Basically, anything less than a five year rolling average of expected death rate for whatever jurisdiction you want to look at will be noise. We are only (basically) one year into something that could take another year to “fix”, being optimistic. Most data until then is cherry picking for whatever political flavour your choose.

PaulH
November 17, 2020 1:08 pm

My responses were 0,0,0. One of my neighbors knew someone who was seriously ill from CV-19 and required several days of hospitalization.

While I see where you’re going with this survey, I have to note that neither I nor most of my immediate family or acquaintances know “a lot” of people. Our circles are limited to people with whom we communicate on a regular basis, and do not necessarily include people we pass on the street or see in the shops, or even live on the next street over. I don’t know anyone who owns a Porsche, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t Porsche owners on the other side of town. 😉

saveenergy
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 17, 2020 10:32 pm

Kip,
I’m going to self identify as “a very complicated, dispersed, heterogeneous cohort”…
you’re never alone with schizophrenia (;-))

Paul C
November 17, 2020 1:12 pm

This interview with Dr Mike Yeadon is certainly worth listening to. His opinions on PCR, and evaluating the current situation in the UK make too much sense – so will be ignored by politicians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZjtiqujql8&feature=youtu.be
No excess deaths here since the original spring spike.

alexei
November 17, 2020 1:17 pm

Agreed Mike Lowe, the climate has become a political tool with which to convince the public, particularly in the West of the necessity of accepting gradual changes in their lifestyles which most are still unaware will slowly impoverish the mid-to-lower classes but enable the élite to enrich themselves further. Some players in this game claim their aim is to redistribute wealth more equitably across the globe. Maurice Strong was possibly the first in a succession of billionaires with strangely extreme socialist beliefs, all of whom sound quite fanatical when talking about the climate, yet clearly either don’t know much about “the science” involved, or don’t care if the base of their proselytizing is unfounded.

What is happening now is a group of these fanatics at the World Economic Forum are seizing on the Covid repercussions to try to accelerate the goal of redistribution and they make no secret of it. Will the MSM tag along or support it?
It’s all here:- https://www.weforum.org/agenda/global

https://sociable.co/technology/skeptical-great-reset-technocratic-agenda-waited-years-crisis-exploit/

Bulldust
Reply to  alexei
November 17, 2020 4:00 pm

My kinky socks himself let it slip recently:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE77utcasb8

They should have kept him in the dark, because he is too stupid not to let these plans slip out to the public. I heard the WEF had removed a video describing reset life in 2030. I have not confirmed this personally.

November 17, 2020 1:18 pm

Kip, nobody ever talks about Sweden. The third chart at https://www.covid19insweden.com/en/deaths.html shows a lot of fatalities earlier in the year, but since the end of June they are indistinguishable from the average all-causes mortality in the previous five years. This achieved without massive lockdowns and or face mask mandates.

Petit_Barde
November 17, 2020 1:27 pm

In France, on october 28th, resident Macron warned us that without lockdown there will be 400,000 more deaths.

According to the WHO, the SRAS-COV2 infection fatality rate is about 0.2%.

So, in order to reach 400,000 more deaths this winter, there should occur 400,000/0.002 = 200 million more infections in a few months.

But in France, there are only 67 million inhabitants.

Covid clowns are just as dishonest and dumb as climate clowns and resident Macron is a conjunction of the two kinds.

Paul C
Reply to  Petit_Barde
November 18, 2020 5:59 am

Is he still using the discredited data? IFR/CFR that was fed into the models.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/08/covid-19-cfr-and-ifr-confused/

John Gentzel
November 17, 2020 1:28 pm

the missing question is ” do you know of anyone that has committed Suicide/died from an overdose in the last 9 months”

My answers 0/1/0/3

JG

John Gentzel