The Week That Was: 2020-11-07 (November 7, 2020)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Philosophy is written in this grand book, the universe, which stands continually open to our gaze. But the book cannot be understood unless one first learns to comprehend the language and read the letters in which it is composed.” – Galileo
Number of the Week: Up 1.5%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Van Wijngaarden and Happer Continued: Last week TWTW discussed the preprint of the paper “Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases” by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer (W & H), two noted experts in Atomic, Molecular and Optical (AMO) Physics. To understand the greenhouse effect, an understanding of AMO is needed, particularly to estimate the extent to which increasing greenhouse gases can warm the earth. At the end of last week’s discussion, TWTW stated:
“As stated by Lindzen previously, doubling of CO2 will have little effect on the earth’s climate, a few percent of the total energy flowing onto the earth and out to space. Again, the exponential functions used by the IPCC [UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] are pure fantasy. Further, as will be discussed next week, cutting existing CO2 in half will have little effect and the residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere is not particularly meaningful. Carbon dioxide capture is of little or no value.” [Boldface and underline added]
The term “exponential functions” is not correct as used. It would have been better to say, “Again, the exponential relationships used by the IPCC are pure fantasy.”
Another inappropriate term is tipping point which comes from the phenomenon where a tipped object falls over—and does not return to its initial position—once the center of gravity lies outside the base. By extension, a climate tipping point would be one in which (say) the planet gets inexorably hotter, never to cool down. The term is utterly inappropriate for describing the earth which swings back and forth from glacial to interglacial periods.
Further, it is important to emphasize the W & H work supports previous work by others. As stated in the Abstract:
“Doubling the current concentrations of CO2, N2O or CH4 increases the forcings by a few percent. These forcing results are close to previously published values even though the calculations did not utilize either a CO2 or H2O continuum. The change in surface temperature due to CO2 doubling is estimated taking into account radiative-convective equilibrium of the atmosphere as well as water feedback for the cases of fixed absolute and relative humidities as well as the effect of using a pseudoadiabatic lapse rate to model the troposphere temperature.”
Unlike models used by the IPCC, W & H compared their results against appropriate physical evidence. They do this in Section 8, “Comparison of Model Intensities to Satellite Observations”:
The authors realize that it would be ideal to compare their calculations with satellite observations over the tropics, but the interferometer data are not available. Also note the thermal inversion that occurs over wintertime Antarctica,
Among other conclusions that readers of TWTW may find interesting are:
“Radiative forcing depends strongly on latitude, as shown in Figs. 7 and 8 [not shown here]. Near the wintertime poles, with very little water vapor in the atmosphere, CO2 dominates the radiative forcing. The radiation to space from H2O, CO2 and O3 in the relatively warm upper atmosphere can exceed the radiation from the cold surface of the ice sheet and the TOA [Top of Atmosphere] forcing can be negative.
“Fig. 9 as well as Tables 2 and 4 [not shown here] show that at current concentrations, the forcings from all greenhouse gases are saturated. The saturations of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 are so extreme that the per-molecule forcing is attenuated by four orders of magnitude with respect to the optically thin values. Saturation also suppresses the forcing power per molecule for the less abundant greenhouse gases, O3, N2O and CH4, from their optically thin values, but far less than for H2O and CO2.
“Table 2 and Fig. 10 [not shown here] show the overlap of absorption bands of greenhouse gases causes their forcings to be only roughly additive. One greenhouse gas interferes with, and diminishes, the forcings of all others. But the self-interference of a greenhouse gas with itself, or saturation, is a much larger effect than interference between different gases. Table 4 shows that for optically thin conditions, the forcing power per molecule is about the same for all greenhouse gases, a few times 10−22 W per molecule.” [Boldface added]
The issue of water vapor is critical to the estimates in 1979 Charney Report that a doubling of CO2 would cause an increase in temperatures of 3 K, plus or minus 1.5 K. These estimates have been continued by the IPCC and its followers, without physical evidence from the atmosphere.
As stated in TWTW last week, W & H have three estimates of the impact of a doubling of CO2. For a fixed absolute humidity and constant lapse rate (drop in temperature with increase in altitude below the tropopause (where water freezes out of the atmosphere)) the estimate is 1.4 K (ͦ C or 2.5 ͦ F). For a fixed relative humidity and constant lapse rate the estimate is 2.3 K (ͦ C or 4.1 ͦ F, and for a fixed relative humidity and a pseudoadiabatic lapse rate (condensed water is immediately removed) the estimate is 2.2 ͦK (ͦ C or 4 ͦ F). All these estimates are below the mean estimate used in IPCC reports of 3.0 ͦ C
Since the greenhouse gases are saturated, particularly for H2O and CO2, there is no reason to accept any estimates above 3.0 ͦ C without compelling physical evidence of strong atmospheric warming, which is totally lacking in the IPCC reports. Further, as demonstrated in the report of McKitrick and Christy, and in the current report of bulk atmospheric temperature trends by Roy Spencer and Earth System Science Center, UAH, the linear warming trend is modest.:
“The linear warming trend since January 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
Despite dire reports, there is no evidence of dangerous warming from greenhouse gases. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Clouds – The Big Unknown: The Charney Report asserted that a modest warming from carbon dioxide will be amplified by warming from water vapor. The IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR, 1996) claimed a pronounced warming trend for water vapor over the tropics and identified it as the “human fingerprint.” The human fingerprint is yet to be found. Yet the IPCC and its followers continue to claim an amplification to CO2 warming.
As stated by McKitrick and Christy in a letter published by the AGU in July:
“The literature drawing attention to an upward bias in climate model warming responses in the tropical troposphere extends back at least 15 years now (Karl et al., 2006). Rather than being resolved, the problem has become worse, since now every member of the CMIP6 generation of climate models exhibits an upward bias in the entire global troposphere as well as in the tropics. The models with lower ECS [Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity] values have warming rates somewhat closer to observed but are still significantly biased upward and do not overlap observations. Models with higher ECS values also have higher tropospheric warming rates and applying the emergent constraint concept implies that an ensemble of models with warming rates consistent with observations would likely have to have ECS values at or below the bottom of the CMIP6 range. Our findings mirror recent evidence from inspection of CMIP6 ECSs (Voosen, 2019) and paleoclimate simulations (Zhu et al., 2020), which also reveal a systematic warm bias in the latest generation of climate models.”
The remaining big unknown is Clouds. Measurements of bulk temperature trends should include their influence. However, the estimates of the greenhouse effect by greenhouse gases such as the one by W & H, above, do not. But they do measure the greenhouse effect itself.
Low-level clouds can cool the earth by reflecting as much as 30 to 60% of sunlight. High-level clouds can warm the earth by allowing sunlight through but interfering with outgoing radiant energy from the surface to space. Retired physicist Ralph Alexander has a good explanation on his blog. According to Alexander, the latest generation of models used by the UN IPCC, CMIP6, are relying on the magic of clouds.
The latest generation of computer models, known as CMIP6, predicts an even greater – and potentially deadly – range of future warming than earlier models. This is largely because the models find that low clouds would thin out, and many would not form at all, in a hotter world. The result would be even stronger positive cloud feedback and additional warming. However, as many of the models are unable to accurately simulate actual temperatures in recent decades, their predictions about clouds are suspect.
Alexander references a project to find the influence of clouds. However, given the bias of the IPCC its questionable whether the project will be unbiased. An article from Columbia University, a leader in climate activism states:
“Every degree or even half of a degree of global warming can have widespread and devastating impacts, said [project leaser Gregory] Cesana, ‘so it’s very important to be able to narrow this down.’”
Given the wide-ranging natural warming and cooling of the planet, particularly during ice ages, does the researcher exhibit a bias? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Scientization of Policy: Last week, TWTW linked to an article by Judith Curry which deserves further discussion. Curry writes:
“Dutch regulatory lawyer Lucas Bergkamp summarizes the challenge in this way. Science has become an instrument used by politicians and agencies to arm themselves with powerful arguments in complex value-laden debates. Scientists have let the politicians hijack the scientific enterprise. Both policy makers and scientists exploit scientific uncertainty to avoid debate on the relation between science and politics, facts, and values. Armed with science, politicians are able to avoid accountability for decisions. Serious debate is avoided because politicized science has purged doubt and skepticism. Activist climate science makes use of a series of strategies and tactics to influence public opinion and politics. Bergkamp concludes that climate science itself has come under siege.
“Scientization of policy is a response to intractable political conflicts that transforms the political issues into scientific ones. The rationale for scientization is the belief that science can act as a neutral arbiter of policy — if we could only determine the facts of a matter, the appropriate course of action would become clear. The problem is that science is neither neutral nor capable of answering political questions. The answers that science gives depend on what questions are asked, which inevitably involves value judgments. Science is not designed to answer questions about how the world ought to be, which is the work of politics.
“Policy makers are culpable in the misuse of science for policy making by:
- regarding science as a vehicle to avoid ‘hot potato’ policy issues
- expecting black-and-white answers to complex problems
- demanding scientific arguments for their desired policies
- using scientific facts as a substitute for matters of public concern.
“Scientists are culpable in the misuse of science for policy making by:
- naivete about expecting scientific evidence to drive policy
- conflating evidence with expert judgment
- playing power politics with their expertise
- combining expert knowledge with values that entangle disputed facts with identity-defining group commitments.
“In political debates, ‘I believe in science’ is a statement generally made by people who don’t understand much about it. They use such statements about science as a way of declaring belief in scientific proposition that is outside their knowledge and understanding. The belief of such individuals in climate change is often more akin to believing in Santa Claus than relating to actual understanding of science.
“In the context of the climate change, ‘I believe in science’ uses the overall reputation of science to give authority to the climate change ‘consensus’, shielding it from questioning and skepticism. ‘I believe in science’ is a signifier of social group identity that supports massive government legislation to limit or ban fossil fuels. ‘Belief in science’ makes it appear that disagreement on this solution is equivalent to a rejection of the scientific method and worldview. When exposed to science that challenges their political biases, these same ‘believers’ are quick to claim ‘pseudo-science,’ without considering (or even understanding) the actual evidence or arguments.
“On the other side of the climate debate, calls for ‘sound science’ are made that weaponize uncertainty and rigor to make it more difficult to use science in regulatory decision making. Individuals promoting ‘sound science’ work to amplify uncertainty, create doubt and undermine scientific discoveries that threaten their interests. The ‘sound science’ tactic exploits a fundamental feature of the scientific process: science does not produce absolute certainty but is provisional and subject to change in the face of new evidence.” [Boldface added.]
Call it Scientization, Groupthink, or Bureaucratic Science, TWTW agrees and looks forward to a more complete discussion of this important issue from Curry. See link under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Diseased Electrical Grids: Thanks to the public never having a vote in the 2008 Climate Change Act, the UK is further along with the crippling effects of unreliable electricity than the US, with the possible exception of California. Due to its reliance on solar power, despite soaring prices, California will face problems from blackouts on hot afternoons and evenings when the sun goes down and consumption increases.
Due to its reliance on wind power, the UK will face blackouts on cold, winter nights, when high pressure systems dominate weather patterns. Global Warming Policy Forum Energy Editor John Constable has been writing about the problem for some time. Following another cold snap, Constable has another good essay with a weather map showing an exceptionally large high- pressure system from the mid-North Atlantic to Moscow, centered near the UK. On November 4 & 5, the grid operator, the National Grid, issued System Warnings, requesting existing coal-fired and natural gas-fired plants to fire-up so that the grid will not face a power shortage. If such a shortage occurs the system can crash, causing major damage.
All this is despite the fact that due to increasing electricity prices, consumers and industries are reducing consumption. As Constable writes:
“The fact that electricity consumption has fallen so far in so short a time should be a matter of deep concern, but it is easily explained. In 2002 subsidies to renewables were trivial, today they are £10 billion per year and still rising. Add to this sum the system management charges and it is no wonder that electricity is becoming unaffordable. This is in effect price rationing.”
“Indeed, in a delicious irony, during the very moments of peak demand on the 4th of November, when coal, and pumped storage and aeroderivative OCGT [Open Cycle Gas Turbine, a waste of heat] turbines were propping up a cold windless Britain, we were still paying wind turbines in Scotland a total of £40,000 an hour to reduce output, with a grand total of £500,000 over the 4th of November. And this is in spite of the £1 billion Western Link interconnector between Scotland and England that was designed to prevent such payments.”
“It is now plain to see that the UK electricity industry is a chaotic joke, with the consumer and the national interest sacrificed repeatedly to save government face and the revenues of the renewables industry.”
“It is unlikely that the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has any remaining will power to tackle the situation, and the Secretary of State himself, Alok Sharma, is compromised by his position as chairman of the [UN] COP 26 climate negotiations next year. He will do nothing.”
Just like a hot evening can be disastrous for California, a cold, still evening can be disastrous for the UK. Politicians are more interested in saving face than addressing problems they face. The UK may have difficulty becoming the Saudi Arabia of wind power as Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Questioning European Green.
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New Name, Same Claims: Corporate Attorney Francis Menton points out that advocates of the US “Green New Deal” have changed the term for their cause to “Zero Carbon Energy Plan.” As with the Green New Deal, this plan will produce the same amount of electricity as fossil fuels, create millions of jobs, at no increase in costs to the consumer? See links under Questioning Green Elsewhere.
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Number of the Week: Up 1.5%. According to Tom Bawden of I News:
“The UK’s solar power capacity increased by just 1.5 per cent to 13,500 megawatts in the past year – representing about 5 per cent of the country’s total electricity generation capacity.”
These numbers are upsetting green politicians and their backers:
“‘These figures are appalling. Growth in solar power is virtually at a standstill. People across the country are crying out for the Government to take urgent action to tackle the climate emergency, yet time and again they fall short,’ said Liberal Democrat spokesperson for the Climate Emergency Sarah Olney.
“Greenpeace UK’s chief scientist, Doug Parr, said: ‘These figures are a reminder of the massive opportunity we’re missing. Solar is the cheapest, most popular energy source in the UK, yet a series of cack-handed government interventions have managed to put people off fitting solar panels.’”
The claim for solar being the cheapest source for energy comes from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020, which manipulated numbers for claiming increasing carbon dioxide, with increasing photosynthesis, is causing destruction and the report apparently failed to realize that solar power does not work well when its cloudy, as in the UK, or at night. See link under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020
https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098
Link to prepublication version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf
How Clouds Hold the Key to Global Warming
By Ralph Alexander, Science Under Attack, Nov 2, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2020/11/2/how-clouds-hold-the-key-to-global-warming-64
Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers
By Ross McKitrick and John Christy, Earth and Space Science, July 15, 2020
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EA001281
Colder weather and low winds expose UK electricity system weakness
By John Constable, GWPF Energy Editor, Nov 6, 2020
Sea level rise and Antarctica
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Nov 4, 2020
http://www.landscapesandcycles.net/sea-level-rise-and-antarctica.html
Link to one paper: Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability
By Tamsin L. Edwards, Nature, Feb 6, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-0901-4
[SEPP Comment: Explaining possible influences of a negative lapse rate over Antarctica, including warming winds.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
New Project Will Analyze Clouds to Make Future Climate Less Nebulous
By Sarah Fecht, State of the Planet, Columbia University, Sep 1, 2020
Global food production emissions ‘would put Paris agreement out of reach’
By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, Nov 5, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Scientists aghast as hopes for landslide Biden election victory vanish
With so many votes cast for Trump in US election, some researchers conclude that they must work harder to communicate the importance of facts, science and truth.
By Jeff Tollefson, Nature, Nov 4, 2020 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03120-8
[SEPP Comment: After stating researchers “…must work harder to communicate the importance of facts, science and truth.” The article quotes Naomi Oreskes who didn’t employ these concepts in her famous book.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Devouring its children
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020
Terence Corcoran: Tricks and treats from Peter Foster
Peter Foster’s book How Dare You! skewers a long list of Halloweenish characters who for two decades have dominated key areas of public policy
By Terence Corcoran, Financial Post, Oct 30, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-tricks-and-treats-from-peter-foster
Global Cooling will kill us all!
By Andy May, WUWT, Nov 5, 2020
The Scientific Method at Work: The Carbon Cycle Revisited
By Ralph Alexander, Science Under Attack, Oct 19, 2020
After Paris!
US officially exits Paris climate accord
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Nov 4, 2020
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/524342-us-officially-exits-paris-climate-accord
America should stay out of Paris
The Paris agreement is a dangerous affront to democracy. Trump was right to challenge it.
By Ben Pile, Spiked, Nov 5, 2020 [H/t Paul Homewood]
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/11/05/america-should-stay-out-of-paris/
Ditch Paris—and Save America
By Hayden Ludwig & Kevin Mooney, Nov 4, 2020
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/11/04/ditch_parisand_save_america_582938.html
A Celebration: U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Treaty Becomes Official
By Myron Ebell, Inside Sources, Nov 4, 2020
Change in US Administrations
U.S. to be Subject to UN “Climate Conciliation Commission” if Re-Joins Paris Climate Pact
Paris Climate ‘Accord’ FOIA Case: State Dept. Releases, Withholds Parts of Memo to Sec. John Kerry Requesting Authority to Sign Paris Agreement
By Chris Horner, Government Accountability & Oversight, Oct 20, 2020
Problems in the Orthodoxy
“China’s Green Offensive”: GAO FOIA Suit Featured in Series
By Chris Horner, Government Accounting and Oversight, Nov 2, 2020
China’s Embargo on Aussie Coal Causes Inferior Grade Mongolian Imports to Surge
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 3, 2020
Seeking a Common Ground
Science and politics
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 26, 2020
Large, deep Antarctic Ozone Hole persisting into November
By Theo Stein for NOAA News, Washington DC (SPX), Nov 02, 2020
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Large_deep_Antarctic_Ozone_Hole_persisting_into_November_999.html
We Have Ceded Too Much Moral Authority To The Federal Government
By Jane Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 31, 2020
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Covid, Climate Change, and Government Coercion
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Nov 3, 2020
COVID: Sweden’s Experiment Didn’t Work, Belgium Is A Basket Case, And U.S. Isn’t As Bad As We Think
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, Nov 3, 2020
Six reasons the new lockdown is a deadly mistake
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Oct 31, 2020
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-new-lockdown-is-a-deadly-mistake/
New Video: You Can’t Fool Mother Nature
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 31, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/10/new-video-you-cant-fool-mother-nature/
[SEPP Comment: Heller demonstrates that usually forest fires do not destroy but regenerate.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
A Two-and-a-half Century Winter Temperature Reconstruction from Northern China
Jiang, Y., Liu, C., Zhang, J., Han, S., Coombs, C.E.O., Wang, X., Wang, J., Hao, L. and Dong, S. 2020. Tree ring width-based January-March mean minimum temperature reconstruction from Larix gmelinii in the Greater Khingan Mountains, China since AD 1765. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.6733. Nov 6, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a3.php
“Jiang also conducted spectral analyses on the data set, finding significant cycles at 2-7, 14.7-15.6, 31.4, 41.8, 62.7 and 125.5 years, which cycles were found to correlate well with ENSO (2-7 years), sunspot activity (14.7-15.6 years), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (31.4 years), the North Atlantic Oscillation (41.8 and 62.7 years). These significant correlations of well-known climate indices, in the words of the authors, ‘suggested the effects of large-scale ocean-atmospheric variability on regional temperatures in the study area.’ And we would add, the absence of any significant rise in temperature since 1940 suggests rising atmospheric CO2 has had no measurable impact on winter temperatures in this region.”
A CO2-induced Influence on Aphid Life Parameters
De Paulo, P.D., Pereira, E.J.G., Oliveira, E.E., Fereres, A. and Garzo, E. 2020. Indirect effect of elevated CO2 concentration on Bemisia tabaci MEAM1 feeding on Bt soybean plants. Journal of Applied Entomology, doi: 10.1111/jen.12822. Nov 4, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a2.php
“Commenting on their several findings, De Paulo et al. conclude, ‘taken together, our results indicate that Bt plants cultivated under elevated CO2 inhibit B. tabaci feeding, which can reduce whitefly infestations of the soybean fields.’ And that is wonderful news with great implications for future agriculture yields in regions of high whitefly infestations.”
The Combined Impact of Warming and CO2 on Peatland Fine-root Growth
Malhotra, A., Brice, D.J., Childs, J., Graham, J.D., Hobbie, E.A., Stel, H.V., Feron, S.C., Hanson, P.J. and Iversen, C.M. 2020. Peatland warming strongly increases fine-root growth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 117: 17,627-17,634. Nov 2, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a1.php
[SEPP Comment: Another experiment contradicting the false fears of climate alarmists that rising temperatures will cause northern peatlands (and tundra) to release significant amounts CO2.]
Models v. Observations
Model Failure: ‘All Model Runs Warmed Faster Than Observations’ … CO2 Sensitivity Estimates ‘Unrealistically High’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 2, 2020
Model Issues
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained
By Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, Dec 2, 2019, updated Nov 5, 2020
Measurement Issues — Surface
Comparing USCRN and nClimDiv to USCHN
By Andy May, WUWT, Nov 6, 2020
Recent USHCN Final v Raw Temperature differences
By Andy May, WUWT, Nov 3, 2020
1919 or 1719?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for October 2020: +0.54 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 2, 2020
Link to high resolution map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2020/october2020/202010_map_meb.PNG
Link to graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2020/october2020/202010_bar.png
Changing Weather
After nearly a decade away, La Niña weather system is back…
By Staff, UN News, Under Climate Change, Oct 29, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076432
“Although La Niña typically has a cooling effect on global temperatures, there’s little chance that 2020 will buck the trend of increasingly warm years, however.
“That’s because of all the heat trapped in our atmosphere by greenhouse gases, said WMO head Petteri Taalas.”
[SEPP Comment: Doesn’t the head of the WMO realize that atmospheric warming is a fraction of surface warming? Further, the UN ignores its own definition of climate change, sustained over 30 years.
Bureau Of Meteorology: Central, Eastern Tropical Pacific “Coolest Since La Niña Event Since 2012”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 31, 2020
Changing Climate
The problem of green immorality
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/04/the-problem-of-green-immorality/
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Study: Ancient people in Turkey adapted to climate change
News Release, Cornell Chronical, Oct 30, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2020/10/study-ancient-people-turkey-adapted-climate-change
Link to paper: Beyond megadrought and collapse in the Northern Levant: The chronology of Tell Tayinat and two historical inflection episodes, around 4.2ka BP, and following 3.2ka BP
By Sturt W. Manning, et al. Plos One, Oct 29, 2020
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240799
Changing Seas
Scientists ‘surprised’ that coral reefs recover after bleaching
By Staff, ABC News, Via GWPF, Nov 6, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/scientists-surprised-that-coral-reefs-recover-after-bleaching/
New Study Effectively Eliminates Confidence In Human Attribution For Modern Global Warming
The forcing uncertainties and lack of observational measurements in the top-to-bottom global ocean preclude an assessment that modern warmth is due to anthropogenic activities.
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 5, 2020
Link to report: Combining Modern and Paleoceanographic Perspectives on Ocean Heat Uptake” Annual Review of Marine Science
Ed by Geoffrey Gibbie, et al. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Review in Advance, Sep 14, 2020
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010844
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Western & Southern Hudson Bay polar bears experience earliest freeze-up in decades
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 3, 2020
There’s a lot of ice in the Arctic
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/04/theres-a-lot-of-ice-in-the-arctic/
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Carbon Credits: Irish Farmers Being Paid to Destroy Their Fields
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 6, 2020
Link to article with photos: Cuilcagh Mountain: Coconut logs form dams to fight climate change
By Conor Macauley, BBC, Nov 6, 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54831302
Lowering Standards
Met Office Guilty Of Fake “Wettest Month In London” Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 5, 2020
Energy and Race: The Media’s New Intersectionality
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Nov 03, 2020
CDC Bails on Coronavirus Rules, Goes All In With Democrats
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 2, 2020
We Have Ceded Too Much Moral Authority To The Federal Government
By Jane Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 31, 2020
BBC’s Oxford Soggy Month Claims Undermined By The Actual Data!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Scientists might say
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/04/scientists-might-say/
Trends in hurricane behavior show stronger, slower and farther-reaching storms
Press Release, by Eric Verbeten, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Oct 30, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-trends-hurricane-behavior-stronger-slower.html
Link to paper: The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity
By James Kossin, et al. Nature, May 14, 2014
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13278
[SEPP Comment: The article links to a six-year old study contradicted by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Deloitte: Australia to Lose Trillions Unless We Act on Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WTWT, Nov 2, 2020
Link to: A new choice: Australia’s climate for growth
By Staff, Deloitte Access Economics, November 2020
[SEPP Comment: Deloitte is a service organization out to sell its consulting services. The report begins with false assumptions similar to the assumptions that the world was about to run out of oil and natural gas by the year 2000. Economists can dream up anything; however, few economists bother to test their dreams against hard evidence. Example: “the Soviet economy is comparable to that of the US.”]
Cold is hot
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/11/04/cold-is-hot/
IDMC: International Climate Refugees are a Myth
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 5, 2020
“IDMC, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, thinks there are lots of climate refugees, but they mainly stay at home.”
Expanding the Orthodoxy
CLINTEL challenges McKinsey’s climate alarmism
By David Wojick, CFACT, Nov 3, 2020
https://www.cfact.org/2020/11/03/clintel-challenges-mckinseys-climate-alarmism/
New York State Value of Carbon Guidance
Guest post by Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Nov 3, 2020
Link to: Value of Carbon Guidance Released for Public Comment
By Staff, The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, Oct 29, 2020
https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/NYSDEC/bulletins/2a86d60
The Draft Value of Carbon Guidance and supplemental documents are available for review on DEC’s website. The public is encouraged to submit comments until 5 p.m. Nov. 27, 2020. Comments must be submitted in writing to: Jason Pandich, NYSDEC, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY12233-1030 or email comments to: climateact@dec.ny.gov; subject line “Comments on Value of Carbon.”
Link to guidance: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Limiting Future Impacts of Climate Change
By Staff, Department of Environmental Conservation, Accessed Nov 3
https://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/99223.html
The Great Reset
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/11/03/the-great-reset/
[SEPP Comment: Similar to the UN IPCC, the World Economic Forum has become a collection of economic potentates seeking to control the public.]
“Voting is Such a Blunt Instrument”: Britain’s Climate Assembly Report Gathers Momentum
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 1, 2020
eal
Britain faces green energy disaster as lack of wind triggers new blackout warning
By Staff, GWPF & The Times, Nov 4, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/britain-faces-green-energy-disaster-as-lack-of-wind-triggers-blackout-alarm/
“National Grid last night sent out an urgent call for more power stations to fire up to keep Britain’s lights on today after plant outages and low wind farm output increased the risk of blackouts.”
“The alert and the prospect of Britain relying on polluting coal plants to keep the lights on will raise concerns about energy security. All coal plants are due to close by October 2024, while the government recently committed to a renewed push for offshore wind farms.”
GWPF calls for urgent inquiry into rising blackout risk, threatening national security
Press Release, GWPF, Nov 6, 2020
“The engineering of our electricity industry is a national embarrassment, with National Grid sent into a panic by the first mild frosts of winter, and consumer costs at horrific levels. The renewables policy of the last twenty years is to blame and government must now change course.” – John Constable
First Dutch climate refugees fleeing wind turbines: “The noise is unbearable”
By Edwin Timmer, De Telegraaf, Via GWPF, Nov 2, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/first-dutch-climate-refugees-fleeing-wind-turbines-the-noise-is-unbearable/
Questioning Green Elsewhere
“Experts” Weigh In On The Zero Carbon Energy Plan
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 3, 2020
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-11-3-experts-weigh-in-on-the-biden-energy-plan
US Elections: The ‘Green Wave’ that failed to materialise
By Staff, NYT, Via GWPF, Nov 11, 2020
Funding Issues
ANZ bankers kneel to carbon God, betray Australian farmers, miners — “don’t deserve a banking licence”
By Jo Nova, Nov 1, 2020
Why the next financial crisis could be green
States, banks and big business have gone all in on ‘sustainable’ funny money.
By James Woudhuysen, Spiked, Nov 2, 2020
Litigation Issues
Youth-led climate change lawsuit dismissed by Federal Court
Appeal planned, after case calling for climate change plan fails
By Yvette Brend, CBC News, Oct 27, 2020 [H/t Cooler Heads]
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/climate-change-lawsuit-fails-dismissed-1.5778952
Oregon Supreme Court rejects climate change lawsuit that cites public trust doctrine
By Debra Cassens Weiss, ABA Journal, Oct 23, 2020 [H/t Cooler Heads]
https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/oregon-supreme-court-turns-back-climate-change-lawsuit
Energy Issues – Australia
Age of Un-Reason: How Fear & Ignorance Drives Wind & Solar Worship Cult
By An Australian Group, Stop These Things, Oct 31, 2020
Energy Issues — US
A Free Market Energy Vision
By Robert Bradley, Master Resource, Nov 4, 2020
Burning Stuff is so 16th Century
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Nov 4, 2020
Health and environmental experts are coming for your gas stove
By Hannah Sparks, New York Post, Oct 29, 2020
Trump ousts Chatterjee, taps Danly to lead FERC
By Catherine Morehouse, Utility Dive, Nov 5, 2020
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/trump-ousts-chatterjee-taps-danly-to-lead-ferc/588526/
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Trump Signs Order to Protect Fracking, Fossil Fuel Jobs
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 1, 2020
Return of King Coal?
Powder River Basin coal facing point of no return
By Greg Johnson Gillette News Record Via Wyoming News Exchange, Oct 26, 2020
Nuclear Energy and Fears
New nuclear plant at Sizewell set for green light
By Simon Jack, BBC, Nov 1, 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54754016
UK fusion experiment used in hunt for clean energy
By Paul Rincon, BBC, Oct 31, 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54741375
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Solar panel installations by homeowners and power companies plummet after subsidy cuts
By Tom Bawden, I News, Nov 4, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Spanish Researchers Claim a Green Hydrogen Breakthrough
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 4, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
No Gasoline Cars after 2035
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 4, 2020
https://ddears.com/2020/11/04/no-gasoline-cars-after-2035/
Carmakers turn to creative bookkeeping to meet EU CO2 goals
By Sam Morgan, EURACTIV.com, Nov 3, 2020 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
California Dreaming
Latino Leaders Are Fighting California’s ‘Unbelievably Regressive’ Climate Policies
By Robert Bryce, Forbes, Nov 1, 2020
Health, Energy, and Climate
WHO Presses for More Action on Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 5, 2020
Other News that May Be of Interest
A Rainbow Without Colors: The Rare Fog Bow is Seen in Seattle
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 2, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/11/a-rainbow-without-colors-rare-fog-bow.html
Tonight! A Rare Blue, Micro-moon on Halloween!
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 31, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/tonight-rare-blue-micro-moon-on.html
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Claim: Fracking will increase radon down wind
By Warren Kindzierski and Stanley Young, WUWT, Nov 2, 2020
[SEPP Comment: By miniscuale amounts?]
Giant iceberg floating toward island in the Atlantic Ocean, could endanger wildlife
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 4, 2020
Perhaps the dumbest article title ever: “The Arctic hasn’t been this warm for 3 million years”… AEUHHH???
By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 6, 2020
William Can’t Sleep Because Of Climate Change!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2020
ARTICLES
New York Banks Need to Brace for Climate Change, Regulator Says
New York State Department of Financial Services superintendent warns of unprecedented financial risks from climate change
By Dieter Holger, WSJ, Oct 29, 2020
TWTW Summary: According to the article:
“A New York state regulator set expectations for banks and other financial companies to prepare for risks arising from climate change, and the transition away from fossil fuels.
“‘Financial risks from climate change are unprecedented,’ said Linda Lacewell, superintendent of the New York State Department of Financial Services, in a letter sent to New York-based banks on Thursday.
“Ms. Lacewell pointed to two dangers that analysts say banks and other financial companies face from climate change: physical risks and transition risks. Physical risks are damages from severe weather caused by climate change, while transition risks arise when banks are too reliant on fossil-fuel financing jeopardized by government policies and changing energy habits. Transition risks include so-called stranded assets—like coal and oil—that turn out to be worth less than expected due to the world’s shift to cleaner energy.
“More than half of all syndicated lending at major U.S. banks is exposed to significant climate-change risk, which could result in more than $100 billion in losses, according to a report published in October by sustainable-finance nonprofit Ceres.
“Formed in 2011 as a merger between the New York State Insurance Department and New York State Banking Department, the DFS regulates around 1,500 banks and other financial groups managing more than $2.6 trillion in assets. It also regulates nearly 1,800 insurers with assets totaling more than $4.7 trillion. Last month, Ms. Lacewell sent a letter to insurers that carried a similar set of expectations.
“She recommended banks take steps across their governance, risk management and business strategies to better prepare for climate change though these approaches should be based on the size and complexity of the bank.
“They include putting a board member, board committee and a senior official in charge of reviewing financial risks from climate change and disclosing through frameworks like the Michael Bloomberg-backed Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, which has been cited by other regulators world-wide. Ms. Lacewell didn’t threaten any repercussions for not following these guidelines.”
The article concludes with the results of a poll, without disclosing the questions. Such polls are easily manipulated. The real risk is not from human-caused climate change, but from regulators using it for expanding power.
Was there also an election, or something?
which will completely change US climate policy in favour of proven science?
What part of proof do you misunderstand?
I see the discussion in TWTW regarding “I believe in science”, got past you.
If the Democrats successfully steal the election (printing 200,000 votes after polling closed in Pensylvannia alone says something for their determination), then yes, the US climate policy will change. But not in favour of proven science.
Now, there’s what I want. Popular energy!
‘Renewable energy defies Covid-19 to hit record growth in 2020
International Energy Agency expects green electricity to end coal’s 50-year reign by 2025’
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/10/renewable-energy-covid-19-record-growth-2020
This week, continuing validation of the Hydrino (Hydrogen atom with a 1/n fractional ‘orbitsphere):
“SPECTROSCOPIC VERIFICATION OF SUNCELL® HYDRINO REACTION PRODUCT”
https://brilliantlightpower.com/spectroscopic-verification-of-suncell-hydrino-reaction-product/
Opening text excerpt:
H2(1/4) comprises an unpaired electron which enables the electronic structure of this unique hydrogen molecular state to be determined by electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy.
Specially, the H2(1/4) EPR spectrum comprises a principal peak with a g-factor of 2.0046386 that is split into a series of pairs of peaks with members separated by spin-orbital coupling energies that are a function of the corresponding electron spin-orbital coupling quantum numbers. The unpaired electron magnetic moment induces a diamagnetic moment in the paired electron of the H2(1/4) molecular orbital based on the diamagnetic susceptibility of H2(1/4). The corresponding magnetic moments of the intrinsic paired-unpaired current interactions and those due to relative rotational motion about the internuclear axis give rise to the spin-orbital coupling energies. The EPR spectral results confirmed the spin-orbital coupling between the spin magnetic moment of the unpaired electron and an orbital diamagnetic moment induced in the paired electron by the unpaired electron that shifted the flip energy of the spin magnetic moment.
The EPR results were first observed at TU Delft by Dr. Hagen as detailed here: https://brilliantlightpower.com/remarkable-observation-by-prof-hagen-tu-delft-on-hydrino-compound-isolated-from-the-suncell/
(See also Dr. Hagen’s EPR slides at link just above.)