Guest “Looney Toons” by David Middleton
OPEC cuts oil demand forecasts, BP sees ‘peak oil’ in 2020s
September 14, 2020LONDON (AP) — Developing countries’ difficulty in containing the spread of the coronavirus pandemic will keep a lid on global oil demand, particularly in India, the OPEC cartel said Monday as it cut its forecasts.
OPEC cut its estimates for world demand by 400,000 barrels a day for both this year and next. It now sees a drop in demand of 9.5 million barrels a day in 2020 and a rise of 6.6 million barrels in 2021.
“Risks remain elevated and skewed to the downside, particularly in relation to the development of COVID-19 infection cases and potential vaccines,” the cartel said in a monthly report on the industry.
[…]
BP says it expects demand for crude oil to peak in the early 2020s. If governments become more aggressive about reducing carbon emissions, demand might never recover from the current slump, its said in a report on the industry’s outlook.
AP
BP’s full report and supporting materials can be downloaded here:
Energy Outlook downloads and archive
I just love lame-stream media headlines…
“BP sees ‘peak oil’ in 2020s”… IF…
BP actually sees peak oil demand in 2019…
But, only under their economic suicide scenarios:
Rapid… more like rabid…
Rapid assumes the introduction of policy measures, led by a significant increase in carbon prices, that result in carbon emissions from energy use falling by around 70% by 2050 from 2018 levels. Rapid is broadly in line with scenarios that are consistent with limiting the rise in global temperatures by 2100 to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
bp Energy Outlook 2020
Net zero… more like AOC-stupid
Net Zero assumes the policy measures of Rapid are reinforced by significant shifts in societal and consumer behaviour and preferences – such as greater adoption of circular and sharing economies and switching to low carbon energy sources. This increases the reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 to over 95%. Net Zero is broadly in line with a range of scenarios consistent with limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C.
bp Energy Outlook 2020
Can you say “freeze in the dark”?
Both the Rapid and Net Zero scenarios assume a significant increase in carbon prices, reaching $250/tonne of CO2 in the developed world by 2050 and $175/tonne in emerging economies. This is much lower in the BAU scenario, with carbon prices reaching only $65 and $35/tonne CO2 by 2050 on average in developed and emerging economies respectively.
bp Energy Outlook 2020
Bear in mind that a couple of years ago, the IPCC demanded YUGE carbon taxes to stay below the dreaded 1.5°C limit.
IPCC SR1.5 Carbon Tax Math
David Middleton / October 11, 2018
Guest seriousness by David Middleton
Over the past few days, I’ve posted a couple of articles by Michael Bastasch of the Daily Caller on the IPCC’s demands for a $240/gal tax on gasoline and $122 trillion to fight the Global War on Weather. Many commentators questioned the math behind the $240/gal gasoline tax. So, I thought I would put together a post showing the math.
[…]
WUWT
The price tag was so high, that the highly respected environmental economist, Richard Tol, described it as “not feasible.“
BP’s Looney Toons carbon taxes aren’t quite that staggering…
| Tax ($/tonne of CO2) | $ 35 | $ 65 | $ 175 | $ 250 |
| Gasoline ($/gal) | $ 0.31 | $ 0.58 | $ 1.54 | $ 2.20 |
| Natural Gas ($/mcf) | $ 1.86 | $ 3.45 | $ 9.30 | $ 13.30 |
| Coal ($/short ton) | $ 73.53 | $ 136.55 | $ 367.63 | $ 525.18 |
Unless you are a consumer. Here are the taxes as a percentage of recent retail gasoline, residential natural gas and bituminous coal prices:
| Tax ($/tonne of CO2) | $ 35 | $ 65 | $ 175 | $ 250 |
| Gasoline ($2.18/gal) | 14% | 26% | 71% | 101% |
| Natural Gas ($15.37/mcf) | 12% | 22% | 61% | 87% |
| Coal ($59.43 /short ton) | 124% | 230% | 619% | 884% |
But, why on Earth would an oil company be calling for such taxes on consumers?
Our new purpose and ambition are underpinned by four fundamental
judgements about the future. That the world is on an unsustainable path and its carbon budget is running out.[…]
In August, we set out a new strategy in support of this purpose and
Bernard C. Looney, BP CEO
ambition. It will see bp transform from an International Oil Company focused on producing resources to an Integrated Energy Company focused on delivering solutions for customers.
Where have we heard this sort of psychobabble before?
‘Beyond Petroleum’ No More? BP Goes Back to Basics
Javier E. David | @TeflonGeek
Published 12:39 PM ET Mon, 22 April 2013 Updated 1:20 AM ET Tue, 23 April 2013After a very public campaign to promote renewable energy, BP is inaugurating Earth Day as a markedly less “green” company — highlighting how certain business realities have run headlong into the once lofty expectations surrounding alternative energy.
In early April, Europe’s second-largest energy company quietly announced that it was divesting of its wind power assets, part of what the company referred to as BP’s “continuing effort to become a more focused oil and gas company and re-position the company for sustainable growth into the future.” The decision followed BP’s 2011 exit from solar power after 40 years in the business.
[…]
CNBC
I guess it’s back to “Beyond Petroleum”
How do you get back there from here? Robotaxis! Despite taxing the living schist out of us, they expect that increasing prosperity will lead to an explosion of electric robotaxis…
Even in the business-as-usual scenario, imaginary electric robotaxis will account 50% of the passenger vehicle-kilometres (VKM) driven by mid-century.
Electric robotaxis…
What do oil companies produce apart from oil?
Natural gas, baby! Despite the imposition of massive taxes on natural gas consumption, demand will continue to rise in two of the three scenarios.
Under the business-as-usual scenario, the civilized world will be paying a natural gas carbon tax of $3.45/mcf in 2050 and consuming 25% of it. The current wellhead price (Henry Hub) is only $2.32/mcf. Under the “net zero” scenario, unbridled prosperity will have delivered fleets of electric robotaxis, while we are paying a carbon tax of $13.30/mcf and still consuming as much natural gas as we were in 2000.
In fairness to the folks at Beyond Petroleum, several times they state that these scenarios aren’t forecasts…
Spencer Dale said: “The role of the Energy Outlook is not to predict or forecast how the energy system is likely to change over time. We can’t predict the future; all the scenarios discussed in this year’s Outlook will be wrong. Rather, the Outlook uses these different scenarios to help better understand the range of uncertainty we face as the energy system transitions to a lower carbon world. Improving our understanding of this uncertainty is an important input into designing a strategy that is robust and resilient to the range of outcomes we may face.”
bp Energy Outlook 2020
However, the lame-stream media don’t seem to have noticed…
BP’s Forecasts Peak Oil Demand
BP warns of oil demand peak by early 2020s
BP projects peak oil demand is very close or already happened
The Man Who Predicted the Future for BP Says Peak Oil Is Nigh
Oops! Strike the last one… It’s from 2013.
The Man Who Predicted the Future for BP Says Peak Oil Is Nigh
An ex-BP geologist says that we’ve hit peak oil, and that it will “break economies.”
By Brian MerchantIn a year that saw the United States reach near-historic levels of fossil fuel production, it seemed that the words ‘peak oil’ were scarcely uttered. But it’s still a looming question, that we have yet to satisfactorily answer—when are we going to run out of oil? Have we already started to? A renowned geologist, and a former top analyst for BP no less, says the answer is yes.
“We are probably in peak oil today, or at least in the foot-hills,” Dr. Richard Miller said recently at a talk in London. According to the Guardian, Miller “prepared BP’s in-house projections of future oil supply for BP from 2000 to 2007,” and is bringing peak oil back into focus at the end of a petroleum-soaked year. He says that oil production has already peaked in 37 oil-producing countries, and that global production is declining at about 3.5 million barrels every year. Continued reliance on oil, and the coming shortage, will do nothing less than “break economies.”
[…]
Motherboard, December 24, 2013
It’s amazing that Peak Oil 2013 still entailed economies jumping off off a Seneca Cliff into Olduvai Gorge. While Peak Oil 2020 will be delivered by electric robotaxis! You really couldn’t make this sort of schist up if you tried.
Summary
BP’s annual statistical reviews of world energy are invaluable references. Beyond Petroleum Part Deux is 100%…
Laundered, renewable greenbacks are the preferred investment vehicle. Keep it Green.
That’s definitely true in these ESG-addled times.
Yeah, circular economy.
“We are probably in peak oil today, or at least in the foot-hills,”
Wow, the foot-hills of the peak, it’s worse than we thought.
How did I miss ridiculing this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foothills
Too fracking funny/!
There’s a dike in that thar pediment!
On Facebook, “dike” is hate speech… 😎
@David M
Unless you’re MGBGT (or whatever that acronym is)
Redge,
Does V8 reduce the offence taken by those who need to google [or DuckDuckGo] MGBGT ?
Auto
Wiki redefines geological features for leftist versions of geography?
Under wiki logic California, Oregon and Washington become the foothills for Colorado, Montana and Wyoming?
Another peak oil prediction? My next door neighbor has a license plate that says “Oils Gone” on his Toyota Prius. Lots of predictions, almost always wtong.
With people still buying ICE cars and trucks it seems premature to predict peak oil.
The espensive EV Teslas and Audi’s have a good driving range, even for highway driving. But the “cheap” EVs at $30000 to $40000 are really city cars. The alleged driving ranges are always at least 20 percent higher than real drivers get on real roads. Drive 75 mph on the highway with no chance for regenerative braking, and there’s little “free” electricity from braking. And then you need more electricity for the AC on hot days and the heater on cold days. If cost is an object EVs are very expensive city cars, so they are not competitive with ICE automobiles. Meaning peak oil ckaims are premature … again.
The possibility of far more people working from home from now on, and not driving to work, is slipping as analyses are showing productivity from home is lower than at the office. Also, young employees are not learning enough from cadual meetings and lunch with older peers “at the office”. Management initially loved the thought of saving money on office real estate by having far more employees at home.
Where does he think electricity comes from???
Is every one Dumb As a Doorknob. Has no one ever done any engineering or math???
Sounds like you are quoting from the recent Forbes article which suggested that improved golf carts would meet the demand for battery cars for Cities. But outside Cities battery cars are just not feasible since driving one of the latest small cars – still too expensive for the majority – on the motorway at normal speeds would see a range of just EIGHTY miles. When I am on the motorway I cruise at 80-90mph so I would have to stop every hour to recharge. And how long would that stop be for? It would be highly dependent on the facilities available more than the recharge time. I could go 300-350mls at my speed on diesel and refill in 10 minutes. Nobody has taken onboard the huge increase in space required for battery charging on motorways, especially when busy.
Yes I read that excellent Forbes article.
Well stated David. As you note, BP (“Beyond Profit”) has done this before. Only difference is that their CEO, aptly named Looney, has really bought into the green agenda. Want to see something really scary, watch this video – Looney’s portion starts at the ~51 min mark.
Looney is just about as well-named as any human could be.
Nominative Determinism?
How depressing. It was an effective propaganda film though.
I read a peace from Asser Amdisen yesterday. One of the best recaps I have ever seen, describing the freedom, democracy and the shift of power from around 1400 to today.
It is titled “Kære danskere, kære medborgere” or in English “Dear Danes, dear fellow citizens”. Asser is the director of school ship Georg-Stage, an old majestic tall ship taking the young greenhorn seamen out in the wide world twice a year.
Each year he has to fight with the Danish finance minister to the few million dollars needed, despite the fact that Georg-Stage can sail with the wind when the weather is suitable.
I am not surprised that Asser Amdisen sees the world so clearly. He has been confronted with educating young woman and men in confinements demanding social skills, effectiveness and sticking to what has proven to work, all in order to survive literally, financially and socially.
I will see if I can dig up Asser’s address and write to him. The world would benefit from his words in English – a Google translation is so not good enough.
Carl,
Shipping and seamen tend to bias towards things that work.
The sea doesn’t change appreciably.
I do not care what the pH of a twenty meter wave is – I need my ship to ride it.
The pH can be 8.3 or 8.1. No matter.
Good ship design, building, maintenance and handling should allow her to ride that wave.
Auto
If one works in hydrocarbons it might affect one’s central nervous system, particularly the brain.
Jonathon Galt
September 16, 2020 at 2:29 pm
…”BP (“Beyond Profit”)…” more like ‘Beyond Pathetic’.
Desperate oil producers feign “end of oil” to jack up the price.
That’s even more nonsensical than Beyond Petroleum’s fantasies.
Seems like they look at falling production (because low prices) and I guess just assume it goes on?
No one invests another dime and we fight over the last few drops?
I’m looking forward to a big price jump based on this report
Good times ahead
That may work if they had a monopoly on energy production, or were capable of a sustaining a sociopolitical quasi-scientific myth. That said, religion (i.e. moral philosophy) to keep honest people honest, and competing interests to mitigate progress of others running amuck.
Peak oil? The more looney tunes people get the more peak gold we get. Sorry, David. I’m afraid that some consulting is going to interfere with my golf schedule, unless sanity returns and the price of gold goes down.
The good old days of 2008…
David,
So what is your prediction for oil demand then? A significant and growing number of countries have
outlined plans to ban sales of non-electric cars in the next 20 years and oil producing companies are aware
of that and need to include that in their projections. Electric motors are more efficient and less polluting than internal combustion engines and already batteries are good enough for the majority of trips in many countries. In the UK for example over 50% of trips by car are less than a couple of miles. A prediction that demand for oil will peak in the near future seems sensible.
I don’t do predictions… But, if I did, I wouldn’t factor in plans that have been “outlined” by governments of nations that are irrelevant to global energy demand.
Much less, imaginary electric robotaxis.
Here is a prediction…Izaak will make a stupid post, Ghalfrunt will continue to tell people to drink bleach and Simon will claim that Trump didn’t do anything to stop the Covid, then tell us he didn’t ban travel soon enough and then we’ll it’s Simon.
And griff will proclaim that Germany get’s 50% of it’s electric power from wind and solar without it costing anything and without destabilizing Germany’s electric grid.
Because it does do that, without destabilising the grid.
The German decision to end nuclear is perhaps perverse – but they just didn’t believe their nuclear industry was honest about being safe.
Of course it costs ‘something’. New wind , especially offshore, will be costing less and less. Germany’s historic roll out of renewables and how they funded it was of course more costly than it would be today: the USA could move into modern energy infrastructure much more cheaply than Germany did
And once again griff proves that the world he inhabits has no connection with reality.
Germany pays 3 times what the rest of Europe pays, but according to griff, that’s not important.
The only reason why Germany’s grid hasn’t collapsed is because it’s connected to the rest of the European grid.
This has all been explained to the griff collective many times, and they have never tried to refute any of it.
Wrong again, griff. Germany has built 26 lignite burning power plants in the last two decades. Lignite is dirty, brown coal, one of the most polluting forms of energy on the planet. During some months, especially in the winter when solar fails, lignite burning produces more power than wind and solar combined.
At those times, Germany is one of the most polluting nations per kw-hr on Earth. The fact is that weather dependant rewenawbles ROUTINELY can’t supply a stabke grid – Germany relies on dirty, brown coal to do that. You’re just beclowning yourself when you push a demonstrably false narrative.
Sorry batteries don’t work in the cold. The don’t work well in the heat. Also who going to pay. The rare metal in modern batteries are more pollu v Drtion than gasline ever did. CO2 is not a pollutant. Oh by the way the us is not Brittion we are much larger and more wide spread. I have driven a ICE car 405,000 miles. Try that with a electric car.
Mark,
the next generation of car batteries are claimed to last one million miles. And this is from
several producers. Even if those claims are off by 50% that still gets you to 500000 miles.
See for example:
https://www.wired.com/story/what-happens-after-a-million-mile-battery-outlasts-the-car/
Electric cars are much cleaner to drive and easier to maintain since they have fewer moving parts than a conventional ICE. Nobody is saying that in every circumstance an electric car is the best option but for most people living in large cities then electric cars offer considerable benefits.
US EV sales…
US EV sales vs Ford F-Series pickup trucks…
Who would have guessed that the Tesla Model 3 would dwarf all other EV’s in US sales? Probably the same people who don’t realize that 5 Ford F-Series pickup trucks are sold for every EV of all makes and models combined.
And insanely enough Tesla is the most valuable car company in the world despite never making a profit. Plenty of people out there are betting on electric cars. BP and other oil companies are clearly taking note and starting to worry.
The Tesla Model 3 is without a doubt the most successful EV in the world… And Marv Throneberry was the best player on the 1962 NY Mets.
Well, we haven’t reached peak EV sales in the US yet, but we’re in the foothills.
The same could be said of the Ford F-Series.
The cratering of EV sales in 2019 seems to coincide with cheap gas
“Same as it ever was…”
Lots of people lose their shirts in the stock market. Investing based on feelings instead of facts will always ensure major losses.
How much fossil fuel do you think is required and CO2 released to mine the materials for the batteries and manufacture them, or just about anything requiring manufacture?
There may be an argument for a higher percentage of electric vehicles in large cities, but don’t forget, it was environmentalists who encouraged diesel engined vehicles, ‘because they emitted less CO2’, which increased particulate pollution (real pollutant) in cities. Although modern engines, DPF’s and Adblue, has now reduced these emissions.
With current battery and ‘renewable’ technology, all we are doing is replacing one pollutant with another (more toxic and often mined by child labour) and moving the pollutant to another location. When it comes to wind turbines and solar energy, the situation (mining, oil use, toxins and non-recyclable waste produced) is even worse, even without the new power line infrastructure required and the fact the energy produced is so unreliable and unstable that it requires constant fossil fuel or nuclear power station backup.
DPF’s do not work, at least not in the way you might expect them to. If they did, they would clog up in a few minutes, especially in the winter. All they do is trap larger particles that are produced when the engine is cold, and when operating temp is achieved the filter is purged. The cloud of blue/black smoke that the diesel in front of you has released for no obvious reason? DPF purge.
The current batteries aren’t getting the range the prophets originally clained.
Regardless those kind of ranges are only acheivable in the lab where perfect charge/discharge cycles are always maintained and temperatures are never too high or too low.
If only they had some way to recharge them?
Ah, Ha! [for those of you who winch at the mention of LENR, click past…]
LENR has come a LONG way since the days at the University of Utah. We are now into Zero Point Energy ZPE), EVO’s (exotic vacuum objects)and self-organizing plasmas. Long gone, hydrogen in nickle or palladium latices.
As we speak, our old bugaboo, Andrea Rossi is witnessing an independent test of his latest E-cat, Ecat SKL.
Specifics (claimed): 5kW, output mostly electricity, a little heat, no noxious radiation COP >>>1,
stable, working with very competent financial managers and at least one major manufacturer of industrial power equipment, all involved in the test.
Do I believe it? Sometime it WILL happen, maybe this fall. Imagine the price of Bunker C if the tests succeed.
http://www.rossilivecat.com/
LoL, I love it!
The used battery auto-dump feature probably works better than Tesla Motors touted ‘quick replace for a fee’ option?
A lot of people are making promises. Whether they can keep those promises is another thing entirely.
While it’ is trivially true that an electric motor is more efficient than an internal combustion engine, when you factor in everything from pump to tire for both engine types you find that electric is in fact less efficient than is the internal combustion engine.
Batteries may be good enough, in good weather, for a year or two. Beyond that, not so much.
Where are those cars going to be charged? Many people do not have garages. Beyond that, what are you going to charge them with? Renewables are already failing.
Renewables are not failing. where on earth do you get that idea?
California, New England, Spain, UK, Netherlands, Denmark, Germany…
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/electricity_prices/
griff,
1. They are not renewables, they are replaceable and unreliables. Just ask anyone living in CA.
2. California has already curtailed its destruction of fossil fuel plants because their unreliable solar and wind can’t handle their current load let alone future loads.
What planet do you live on that you don’t know this?
Where are renewables failing? Every place they have been tried.
Wrong again, griff. Read “German Failure on the Road to a Renewable Future” in the German magazine “Der Spiegel”. Here’s a quote “So, how did this marvelous idea turn into such a monumental failure?”[ – referring to renewable energy.] Here’s an English translation in case you can’t read German;
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-failure-on-the-road-to-a-renewable-future-a-1266586.html
The fact is that Germany uses 50% of the dirty, brown coal burned in the EU. They’ve made very little progress toward their Paris Accord commitments.
You’ve been schooled on this repeatedly, yet you don’t appear to have learned anything. Try harder.
Where will they be charged?
an interesting question.
Let’s ask the Norwegians, who have about the highest EV use rate on the planet.
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
There is not a single urban neighborhood or suburban location in the US that has an electrical grid capable of supplying enough electricity to charge the same number of EV’s as there are fossil fueled vehicles today. Talk about CA brownouts!
Ah, an E-Cat in every car….
Izaak:
“A prediction that demand for oil will peak in the near future seems sensible.”
Do take a moment and read my comment below at 4:20 PM. Thank you.
CD,
You are commenting on something completely different. BP is saying that demand for oil will peak in the next 5 years. Which is completely different from saying that oil will run out any time soon. And BP’s argument seems to be predicated on a switch from internal combustion engines to electric cars which seems plausible given that countries such as the UK and France have announced that they will ban the sale of new ICE powered cars in the near future and car manufacturers are increasingly making electric cars. And so electric cars are only going to get cheaper and better in the future.
BP’s business-as-usual “forecast” has oil demand rising into the 2030’s. The economic suicide” forecasts” have demand peaking last year.
To BP’s credit, they did note…
Where are they going to get the electricity to run them
Izaak:
My point was that making predictions is oftentimes little more than a joke, regardless of whether you are talking about demand, production, sports, the climate or anything else. The UK and France don’t plan on banning ICE cares until 2035 or 2040 from what I’ve read.
Prediction making is a joke because the predictors are wrong so much they beclown themselves with their failure. But people keep doing it anyway. The list of failed predictions in environmentalism and climate alarmism is so long it’s enough to make your head spin. The list goes back to the 1960’s and Paul Ehrlich’s book “The Population Bomb”.
If the Earth is significantly colder in the 2035-2040 time period (which I think is plausible), electric cars are not likely to be one of the things on the minds of most people. In light of this, seeing govt shoving EVs down the throat of the auto market is just one of the many things that can make govt look like blundering fools.
Izaak,
1. The electric grid is not capable of powering enough automobiles to affect oil production significantly. And there are no programs that I can find in any industrial country to build out the grid to such capability. I have not seen a single Walmart putting in multiple charging stations let alone equivalent to their gasoline stations.
2. As the world’s population continues to grow and advance the use of plastics will only go up and up. Plastics = oil.
3. Sooner or later the environmentalists are going to recognize the problem with disposing of used batteries. At that point electric cars will be condemned.
4. Electric cars are inherently less safe. They weigh more but use standard sized tires thus making them more of a missile in an accident and less useful in snow and mud. At some point these deficiencies will limit the usefulness of the electric vehicle.
I could go on and on. These, however, should be sufficient to question any prophecy about peak oil.
“Net Zero is broadly in line with a range of scenarios consistent with limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C.”
What’s all the fuss about, business as usual is consistent with limiting any man made contribution to under 1C. Besides, anyone with a brain can see that the even if the IPCC was right about the effect of CO2, nothing done unilaterally, or for that matter by the entire developed world, will make a measurable difference to future temperatures.
All these silly policies will do is put those who buy into the scam at a serious disadvantage over those who are smart enough to actually follow the science and those who are callous enough not to care either way as long as it leads to an advantage for them.
Another peakoil routine on the clock. Yawn… Lost the count already.
I’m all set. My self-updating courtesy of BP “Hitchhiker’s Guide to fuel in the Galaxy” lists 740 airports on planet earth where I could tank Fifi from an Air BP dependency.
Peak oil predictions actually date back over 100 years, and the list below is probably incomplete.
https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354
1909 — 25 to 30 years
1919 — 2 to 5 more years
1937 — 15 more years
1943 — Peak oil reached
1945 — 13 years left
1956 — 10 to 15 years
1966 — Gone in 10 years
1972 — Depleted in 20 years
1977 — Gone by the early 1990s
1980 — By the year 2000
1996 — Peak by 2020
2002 — Peak by 2010
2007 — Sometime between now and 2040
etc., etc., etc.
I’m at a loss for words….
You’ve said enougth 😉
Well obviously each looming peak was dictated by the then available technology and known reserves.
As reserves shortened, there was a push to new technology, it became cost effective to develop more expensive reserves, there was more exploration, into more remote areas like Alaska or new areas of drilling like the North Sea…
so for a while the peak was put off… then there was a new peak predicted, a new wave of tech and exploration.
So now we have fraccing and drilling in Siberia, rather than gushers in Texas. We are looking at tar sands, not salt domes.
Has oil perhaps reached a new limit? I wonder where there is to look and with what technology?
Peak oil is very simple.
Peak oil production occurs approximately when half of a recoverable resource has been recovered.
Hubbert was wrong because he massively underestimated the recoverable resource. Most other predictions have been wrong because those making the predictions don’t understand the concept of Peak Oil or any other resource.
This was Hubbert’s 1956 “forecast” for Peak Oil in the US:
Peak Oil is highly dependent on the total volume of a resource that will be recovered. Note how the “peak” moves forward in time as the total volume of recoverable oil is increased. Hubbert’s forecast wasn’t looking too bad as recently as recently as 2008. However, the recoverable resource was much larger than 150 or 200 billion bbl.
Through 2017, cumulative production totaled over 222 billion bbl and proved reserves stood at just under 40 billion bbl.
In order to estimate when US Peak Oil will occur (or has occurred), we would need to know how much of the oil resources, not classified as proved oil reserves, will be recovered. At best, this is a SWAG. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) estimates that there are about 90 billion bbl of technically recoverable oil remaining on the US Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Until proved reserves and the estimated undiscovered resource begin to decline, it will be impossible to forecast Peak Oil. The volume of undiscovered technically recoverable resources is YUGE, particularly in North America.
One of the major fallacies of Peak Oilers is the assumption that the cost of finding and producing oil is going up. While costs skyrocket when prices are high, over time costs fall due to improving technology and increasing experience. Breakeven prices have been reduced onshore and offshore, conventional and unconventional.
Industry has no control over prices; but can always reduce costs by doing things more efficiently. This is why deepwater Gulf of Mexico E&P was booming at $50-60/bbl oil prices:
The preceding graph is for “greenfield” projects (new discoveries, requiring new infrastructure). The breakeven cost for “brownfield” projects (infrastructure-driven plays) are much lower.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/22/peak-oil-abiotic-oil-eroei-realish-things-that-dont-matter/
In terms of real value, crude oil has never been cheaper.
http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/
Jeesh griff,
None of this means we’ve reached the end of fossil fuel resources. It just means we are looking in different places to find more – especially as 3rd world nations become more industrialized and up the demand for oil.
If nothing else, think PLASTICS, PLASTICS, PLASTICS as the saying goes.
from the Graduate:
Mr. McGuire: I want to say one word to you. Just one word.
Benjamin: Yes, sir.
Mr. McGuire: Are you listening?
Benjamin: Yes, I am.
Mr. McGuire: Plastics.
Benjamin: Exactly how do you mean?
Mr. McGuire: There’s a great future in plastics. Think about it. Will you think about it?
Exploration in general increases when prices go up.
I have 1,500,000,000,000 barrels of high grade karogen in my back yard. Available once the price is right.
Meanwhile, BP is increasing Natural Gas production significantly. Perhaps Looney realizes that Natural Gas turbines not only back up Wind and Solar, the total power generated from the “backup” often exceeds the total produced by the weather dependent renewable. It almost always does in winter. The “backup” generation is critical to be able to maintain the electric grid. He who owns the means to provide the “backup” will be sitting pretty. Maybe Looney isn’t so looney after all.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/302532/natural-gas-reserves-and-production-of-bp/
They keep recycling the same reports. Just the dates change.
About those electric taxis …
It has been tried in Quebec and that green outfit (Teo taxi) went bankrupt even with generous
subventions.
It seems that they did not account for that long recharge time.
So the electric taxis were only available part time and no way they could make any profit.
And this is where we have about the cheapest electric price in the world.
I pay less than .05 cents per kWh (0.0437) plus a 12.50 monthly charge.
Thanks to our giant hydro dams.
One question no one asks: How would a robotaxi ever get through a 4-way stop sign intersection? Much less deal with aggressive human drivers?
The answer to that is ‘easily’ once most cars are self-driving. The roll-out of 5G in part is
motivated by an assumption that cars will start talking to each other and telling cars around
them where they are and what speed they are going.
Dealing with aggressive human drivers is much harder. And is one reason why there are currently so many road fatalities.
Self-driving is a joke.
This is for the US.
Self-driving vehicles won’t work on gravel farm-to-market roads. There are no markers for them to follow.
Self-driving vehicles won’t work on many paved county farm-to-market roads. There are no markers for them to follow.
Self-driving vehicles won’t work anywhere there is road construction with human flag holders. There won’t be any markers for them to follow. You’ll have huge traffic jams while people wake up to take manual control. And how will unmanned taxi’s work? My guess is they will just snarl traffic to a standstill.
If I live in rural or suburban areas fed by poorly marked roads why would I want a self-driving vehicle that costs more?
We are still several decades away from having a reliable self-driving car.
The software actually handles this better than a lot of people by being hyper timid, even to the point of being anoying. It will never be perfect, nor will people.
There are three kinds of people:
1) People who come to a full stop and are traumatized by drivers who blow through stop signs.
2) Drivers who blow through stop signs.
3) People who drive pickup trucks, Jeeps and SUV’s… We can deal with the first two categories.
Reminds me of a joke my cousin once told me:
This guy and his friend are driving down the road and they come to a stoplight, it’s red and the guy zip on through. His friend, in a panic says “what are you doing, that was a red light?” the guy responds, “don’t worry my brother does it all the time”. so they continue along and at the next red light, he again zips though and his friend once again protests and he again says “don’t worry my brother does it all the time”. a little while later they come to a green light and the guy slams on his brakes coming to a complete stop, his friend nearly hits the windshield and shouts “what’d you do that for? the light is green!!” to which the guy responds “My brother might be coming the other way”.
David:
“There are three kinds of people:”
I’ve always heard it said that the three kinds of people are those who (1) make things happen, (2) watch things happen, or (3) wonder what happened.
Me? I watch things happen.
Lug nut rule.
David,
I am breathless with excitement about the prospect of electric robotaxis being able to drive me to my cabin in the mountains here in the Southwest! Only 5-10 years and I can get as drunk as a skunk and still preserve my eco-street creeds by paying for a hopped up golf cart to take me back home to my house in the woods!
Of course, I am worried about said robotaxis getting jacked and stripped of their valuable batteries and electrical parts by enterprising young criminals around the world. Maybe to prevent this from occurring the redoubtable Mr. Looney can upgrade them to be FLYING electric robotaxis! I think that that is almost as likely as his other prognostications!
You’re not as excited about the prospect of driver-less cars as Demitri Martin is: https://www.facebook.com/DemetriMartin/videos/463423921171681
You live in the mountains? What kind of road leads to your cabin? I’d be very worried about being driven over a cliff by a self-driver that gets too close to the edge of a mountain road that has been washed out.
Wash outs are always a possibility during the summer monsoons; that’s why I never leave home without a V-8, 4WD and a pistol!
These fokkers are trying to bury coal. That’s what this is all about. Conveniently they’ve got oodles of oil and LNG to sell us. Something has to power that SUV and spin those CCGTs. The carbon tax will require carbon audits, which China and Asia will fudge. So they will move ahead while the West reverts to paleo living under a Marxoid Greenist state. Coronavirus has already got us half way there. We are living the nightmare now.
There was a time when the future looked bright. It still does – for Asia. Not us.
BP’s Looney is living at the crossroads of Woketard and Greentard. Beyond Petroleum Part Deux is like Joe Biden trying to appear cool by playing Despacito on his smart phone, without realizing that the English translation of the lyrics include…
Biden then declared that if he had talent like that, he would be elected in a heartbeat.
So he really believes his voters are that stupid?
Zane,
Not just coal! Part of the ChiCom plan for world domination seems to be ensuring that the US forsakes any role in world nuclear power development! If we really want to become eternally energy independent and poke a finger in the ChiComs eye we should be building a robust nuclear power industry while developing and exporting our hydrocarbon riches.
A recommissioned San Onofre power plant along with the planned-to-be-decommissioned Diablo Canyon would provide about 5% of Calizuela’s electrical power needs 24/7/365! Just two plants! And I’ll bet that the chunk of power that San Onofre used to provide is right about what the state was short in many of their recent blackouts!
Don’t despair! The DemoKKKrats may well botch their attempts to steal the 2020 election by how blatantly they are making their plans. Four more years of Trump with a decoupling from China could well see us surging past the ChiComs for decades to come! And it could well continue as long as We don’t put the DemoKKKrat Socialists back in power!
Funding nuclear plants and ensuring a return on investment seems very hard in the developed world these days… the Chinese are among very few people offering to build new nuclear in the West at all…
The Japanese just pulled out of one of the proposed new nuclear plants in the UK. There could still be plants built at Brading and Sizewell – but they’d be by the Chinese, with France’s EDF (if it survives)
https://www.cityam.com/hitachi-set-to-withdraw-from-wylfa-nuclear-power-plant/
Constant lawsuits do tend to make things expensive. Which was the intention in the first place.
Trump has certainly poked a stick between the spokes of the Chicommie bicycle. Once their $40 trillion debt bubble bursts, China’s economy may not show any real growth for decades, like Japan after 1990.
Methinks BP’s forecasting is as careless as their drilling efforts in the Gulf.
Some old Arco boys must be in tears with this shambles of a company which took over Arco.
The only thing about peak oil is the peak stupidity of our governments to let these environmental idiots dictate what oil can be allowed to reach market. The continued attack on anything to do with resource development by using litigation to delay and electing uneducated bozos like Trudeau and AOC to office using money from left wing funded oligarchs.
In Canada there sits the third largest oil reserves in the world. The present production is only tapped into 5% of the proven reserves. The amount of natural gas and liquids that are sitting in the ground in accessible areas is in the range of 30 trillion cubic feet proven reserves. So why does Canada import 35% of its oil from foreign markets.
Since the election of the Trudeau government the draconian environmental policies and the constant bombardment by foreign funded environmental groups the investment in the oil industry went from 250 Billion dollars of projects on the books to ZERO in 4 short years.
The main architect of this down turn in the Trudeau government is Gerald Butts. This bastion of green virtual signaling has been forming policies and denying access to prime areas for resource development since he was hired by Trudeau in 2015. In 2007 Butts attended a green conference in St.Louis put on by the Rockefeller’s . The conference listed 20 resource projects that were been proposed to continue to develop resources in North America. Of those Butts has personally affected policies for 8 of the 10 projects in Canada to be cancelled. One ploy was to put a moratorium on things like New Oil Tanker traffic on the west coast of Canada. That shutdown a prior approved Gateway pipeline and the three oil sands plants that were going to supply it disappeared. On the same day another lesser known moratorium on drilling in the Arctic was passed. That cancelled 16 billion in natural gas development in the northern basin. Another moratorium was issued to stop development of the Sable gas fields on the east coast causing that production to be halted when the owners of the field could not continue to drill to support their production.
On top of that every foreign funded environmental group has been using litigation, Lobbying and funneling illegal amounts of money Native groups to battle every single resource project to a stand still.
It definitely suits the Arabs and Russians to keep Canadian oil off the market. I wouldn’t discount the influence of the Koch brothers either, the fourth or fifth richest clan in the US after the Bezoses, Gateses, Waltons, etc. Their Pine Bend Minnesota refinery buys Canadian crude real cheap and sells into a pricey local gasoline market… Fat margins, which is responsible for a good chunk of their wealth. They would have an interest in maintaining the current status quo.
“Improvement means deterioration” – Hutber’s- now Middleton’s-Law!
I too miss not having the promised flying car David…
but maybe we are nearly there?
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/16/volocopter-opens-worlds-1st-electric-air-taxi-flight-reservations/
(I’m not sure this will ‘take off’)
“nearly there”
classic
I guess the foot, cart, and motorcycle economies are assumed to stay that way in the minds and models of product marketers to the rich colonialists.
The oil industry keeps running into hydrocarbons.
Only politics will restrict hydrocarbon production for the foreseeable future (30 years).
The earth is a giant carbon system, indeed, all life depends on that system.
The earth is a giant hydrogen system, indeed, all life depends on that system.
And, yes, carbon and hydrogen have a chemical affinity for each other.
And, yes, hydrocarbons are a part of those two overlapping & interconnected systems.
BP calls itself beyond petroleum, with this attitude it will be beyond BP and over some period it will cause itself to shrivel up and blow away or be taken over.