CA System Operators Fighting with Politicians to Keep Grid From Collapse
I sent an email to a relative earlier today predicting that politicians in California would start leaning on system operators to reduce their safety margin or contingency power in order to avoid rolling blackouts.
I had no idea they were teetering this close to the edge already.
In response to rolling blackouts over the weekend, California ISO President Steve Berber warned that California must maintain its current electricity reserves or risk ‘collapse of the entire system of California and perhaps the entire West.’
Berber:
“You are trading the loss of 3000 megawatts for the collapse of the entire system of California and perhaps the entire West. […] When you’re at the very edge and you have a contingency and you have no operating reserves, you risk entire system collapse.”
TRANSCRIPT: ISO Board of Governors Meeting Monday, August 17, 2020
CAISO CEO Steve Berber:
“For those of you who think we can just use our reserves, you are wrong. You are trading the loss of 3000 megawatts for the collapse of the entire system of California and perhaps the entire West. […]
John, you mentioned that there are standards we follow that are NERC [North American Electric Reliability Corporation] standards. These standards are in place for a very good reason. They’re there to ensure there’s no system collapse. When you’re at the very edge and you have a contingency and you have no operating reserves, you risk entire system collapse. Is that not fair?”
CAISO Director, Real Time Operations John Phipps: “That’s correct, Steve. In fact that afternoon or evening there when we had the negative 1200 megawatt AC, if we would have deployed our reserves to recover our AC, but then had a large generator – Diablo Canyon – or some other similar unit trip which could not have recovered, we would have had AC frequency drop down dramatically and put the rest of the [Western] Interconnection in jeopardy.”
HT/ The Harry READ ME file.
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Time to buy a diesel generator and stock up on fuel.
Remember to use black-out curtains if you use a generator in a power blackout: your neighbours and the local thugs will be jealous or take offence – or just take your genny – if they see your lights on while they are suffering.
I think it’s about time the feds step in and separate the corrupt state government from control of the system. It’s clear the desk jockeys in Sacramento have no idea how the system works, why it works, or what it needs to work in the future.
Gavin Newsome simply thinks he can smile at the camera and cause physics to bend to his will. He and those like him are the cause of the problem.
Closing Diablo Canyon in 2024 is, most unfortunately, a done deal. As is closing the second Indian Point reactor unit in New York State in 2021.
California’s voters and New York State’s voters have the politicians and the energy policies they want. They will not retreat from their support for those politicians and for those energy policies regardless of the consequences.
Closing Diablo Canyon in California and Indian Point in New York State is sheer lunacy. But keeping either of those two facilities open would be to admit that solar and wind backed by batteries cannot get the job done. Neither the politicians, nor the voters who keep those politicians in office year after year, will ever make such an admission.
The upshot is that for the long term, Californians and New Yorkers must learn to live using roughly one-third less electricity than they consume today. Maybe even half as much electricity. That is their choice. If this is what they want to do, then let them do it.
Except for one thing. We can’t let the Californians collapse the Western Interconnection. If California’s voters want to go their own way, then let the Californians go their own way by encouraging the creation of their own independent wind and solar power grid.
If this means covering much of California’s arid landscape with huge solar farms and with massive grid-scale battery facilities, so be it. It is their state, let them run it the way they see fit.
Sadly what you say is correct. So around 2025, with the Sun approaching the solar cycle max and with the Earth’s magnetic field diminishing, turning off Diablo Canyon could get very interesting. As much as we are all exposed, a major heat wave and any further disruption to California’s grid would be catastrophic. Additionally there will be 5 more years of infrastructure degradation. California has sucked all the money out of PG&E as they can and will continue to do so. Someone needs to put up a countdown clock.
We just need to make sure there are enough switches in the interconnection to isolate their problems.
“Closing Diablo Canyon in California and Indian Point in New York State is sheer lunacy.”
Yes, it is. That’s the Democrat Party. They are delusional and don’t live in the real world.
The next rolling blackout should include all of Sacramento (and especially any government facilities) and any emergency backups should be disabled.
Let it last about a week and see if any pols have come to their senses re:green energy during that time.
I think what is needed to nip all of this in the bud is a federal law that frees up the utilities from having to buy or produce electricity from weather dependent energy sources (i.e. wind and solar) that destabilize the grid and make it unreliable. The obvious reason for the legislation is to put an end to what is happening in California and ensure it does not spread. Call it the Grid Reliability and Stability Act (GRASA).
If this is to happen, the Republicans have to be in complete control in Washington and wake up to what is happening in California. Unfortunately, I am not going to hold my breath waiting for this to happen — I am not optimistic. The failure of politicians at all levels of govt to look long and hard at the physics, engineering and economics of wind and solar and pay serious attention to the problems created by the implementation of them does not bode will for the future in my opinion.
The obvious opposition to GRASA by the Green Movement and Democrats would obviously be a problem for its passage in Washington. Plenty of lawsuits. If things get bad enough in California however, I am left wondering if the Federal Govt could step in a take over California’s grid to rescue it from the incompetence of the Dems in Sacramento. It could cancel the plant shutdowns (including the nuclear plant) and build additional ones with fed govt funds in the state. And mandate forest management to reduce the scope and intensity of forest fires.
But I am probably just daydreaming here. The reality is looking far less hopeful.
What is likely to come out of this Road to Damascus moment for Cal’s Libtard politicians wanting to avoid an angry electorate will be a resurrection of Diablo Canyon re-licensing. This Keep Diablo is the only face-saving path for the Sacramento Libtards because they can justify it based on nuclear’s zero emissions.
Without Diablo Canyon’s very stable 2 GigaWatts supply after 2024, California will face these Black-outs with regularity, a situation anyone with any analytical-engineering skills has been forecasting for a long time.
What other choices do the Sacramento Libtards have?
Without Diablo Canyon re-licensing, I see very little options.
– As others here on these comments have already pointed out, the planning for a 4 unit (4 x 500MegaWatt) 2 GigaWatt CCGT plant, the interconnects to the grid, and the pipelines to bring it gas from Utah and Colorado-New Mexico just cannot be done in the 4 years before cataclysm strikes the CAISO grid once Diablo Canyon goes off-line permanently.
– Interconnects to Oregon and Washington State are probably already at capacity, plus they have their own in-state growth to supply and keep reserves. Even if they built a new interconnect line, and more hydro-generation squeezed out to help California, but for how long, months, years, decades while Cal pursue a suicidal Green energy policy? More hydro-generation over a sustained period, even with the reservoirs already built, comes at a huge cost and risk to the reservoirs’ storage holdings in case of a prolonged drought.
– Into this power void, undoubtedly capitalism can come to Cal’s CAISO rescue with more fast spin-up Gas Turbines being built in regulatory friendly Arizona, but the gas pipelines to support that would need to be started soon from the NewMexico gas fields.
– Arizona’s baseload supply is now already taxed with the huge Navajo Coal generation plant shutdown this past February. So there is huge financial incentives for operators to build out gas turbines here in my state of Arizona. Selling natural gas-made power on the spot market to a desperate California at $3/Kw-hr can pay back the investments and make for handsome rewards rather quickly.
But (big But) any plan to meet US power needs for the next 30 years also depends on not having a brain-dead Green Energy-stupid President Biden or President Harris from re-starting CPP and imposing a new CPP-like lunacy on the States, which would be devastating to the entire country.
Probably just about enough time to build an LNG regasification port and shoreside gas generation. Might spoil the view on the Ventura Highway though.
I think it more likely that as the Southwest’s and California’s grid reliability issues begin to accelerate, gas-fired turbine peaker plants which can be served by rail transported LNG will be installed wherever it is convenient and relatively safe to locate them.
The installation of these LNG-powered peaker plants will be justified as a temporary measure necessary for achieving the greater long term goal of reaching 100% carbon free power.
For those who are worried about spent nuclear fuel being transported by rail to the interim SNF storage sites now being proposed for Texas and New Mexico, just wait until thousands of rail car tankers loaded with LNG are being transported hither and yon about the United States.
Back to nature, no more sewage treatment, no more steel mill gas, oil, coal, electric arc or electric induction, open-hearth, or oxygen furnaces.
On the bright side the air will be cleaner and you will die of old age at 30.
No, that was life expectancy at birth for most of human history because of infectious diseases and lousy public health systems. If you made it to adulthood and didn’t die from childbirth or in war, you could easily make it to 70-80 or more.
So is it quality or quantity or both?
With cheap reliable energy quantity dictates quality of life.
Looks like we need both.
So, how’s Tom Steyer doing? As the author and main financier behind wind and solar subsidies, he ducked out when the failing infrastructure caused forest fires, so what is his plan? Is he even resident in the state? Do his homes all have independent power generation? If so, is it powered by diesel, gasoline, natural gas, or propane? Or does he have enough blood lithium batteries and acreage to get by? My money is on his money keeping his home(s) cool and well lit, and all his meals delivered hot and on-tme.
With his kind of money, all his California estates/properties certainly have stand-by automated-start generators to cover for rolling black-outs. And if those fail, his mega-yacht can pick him up from a San Fran pier and keep him sailing in comfortable luxury just offshore, with his personal helicopter and Yacht landing pad at-the-ready to take him ashore when needed.
So from Lil’ Stinky Steyer’s wealthy Liberal-retard perspective, it’s the peasants who deserve to suffer the fate of black-outs to help push more money to his Green portfolio and green hedge fund investments.
First, separate California’s grid from the other grids to protect them. Texas has it’s own grid which would help contain problems in a major power blackout.
Second, start a federal tax on any intermittent energy connected to a major grid. This is to pay for upgrades to the grid to help protect it. Obviously this would also mean NO SUBSIDIES.
Third, declare California incapable of governing itself (incompetent) and place a board of trustees in charge until they get California back to some sensible control. No idea if this is even possible, but it was a fun idea to type in.
Well, I do not dismiss this from a possible future:
Assume the Dems take control of the National government (House, Senate, White House, and a majority on the Supreme Court). When CA shutters Diablo Canyon and face imminent numerous and prolonged blackouts, Congress passes a law dictating that surrounding states MUST provide power to CA, and be included in any planned blackouts and brownouts. The feds will provide compensatory payments to the states, essentially bribing those state governments to go along at the expense of their citizens. Perhaps the will use the guise of national security or defense to ensure CA is the only state NOT to suffer blackouts.
CA is too important to the Democratic Party for them to have it fail, and possibly become Republican. If they can save it, especially at the expense of red states, they will, quickly and without reservation. Prepare to be majorly outraged if the Dems win in November.
They might be able to try, but power lines are vulnerable to intentional interventions on the part of patriots.
Perhaps I should point out at this juncture that the name of the “President and Chief Executive Officer of the California Independent System Operator” is actually “Stephen Berberich”? Please see:
http://www.caiso.com/about/Pages/OurLeadership/StephenBerberich.aspx
CD in Wisconsin August 18, 2020 at 9:46 am
It’s just great if you have a back yard wind mill or solar panel, the utility has to pay you for what you generate, and you get to use their infrastructure and their customer base. What a sweet deal!
Maybe that’s not the way it really works, but it looks that way from what I’ve read.
What exactly is meant by “collapse of the entire system”?
If that means the entire grid failing, wouldn’t that big of a collapse threaten the entire national grid? I seem to recall reading about “15 substations” being sufficient to do that.
A lot depends on how quickly the operators are able to isolate the failing parts.
Hopefully the operators around California are doing drills on how to disconnect California in a hurry. If needed.
That’s definitely concerning, then. I don’t think a collapse of the national grid would be quickly or easily recovered from. With the mess everything else is today, I don’t see our country surviving it. Even WITHOUT the current mess I doubt we could.
IIRC, there is the East Grid, West Grid, and Texas. They are independent from each other but interconnected. You can be sure that if the West looks like it’s going down, Texas and East will hit the OFF button right quick.
Wouldn’t surprise me to find out that mains to CA have been equipped with sensors to detect any kind of abnormality and are set to sever the connection at the first sign of something amiss.
I have nothing against people trying to develop renewable energy, but when it is mandated by government bad outcomes happen. The free market is powerful and has lead to huge amounts of prosperity. To mess around with the free market prosperity machine is dangerous. One only needs to look at Soviet Communism to see the disastrous effects of government trying to run industry. Lining up for bread is no different than what we have in California right now, except instead of bread the people have to wait for electricity, they have to wait to the government elites turn back on the power and are at the mercy of shortages caused by politicians.
Probably just about enough time to build an LNG regasification port and shoreside gas generation. Might spoil the view on the Ventura Highway though.
So where does the CO2 from the 9000 MW of power generated by California’s neighbors go? Does California build a wall to contain it?
I have been wondering about that, since much of California’s imported power is generated by burning something.
It’s about to get interesting a 4:06pm PST! CAISO is reporting total renewables at 9200MW with solar at 6400MW and dropping fast! With 52,000MW available and demand at 47,000MW and the peak still to come and the loss of ALL solar soon the fecal matter could hit the oscillating device in a spectacular way. Stay tuned.
“the fecal matter could hit the oscillating device in a spectacular way. ”
The nicely alliterative phrase I’ve come up with is “when the poop hits the punkah.”
(A punkah is a rope-operated flap (a primitive fan) over an Indian throne.)
“CAISO CEO Steve Berber”
The problem is, the dude’s white. If he were “of color”, all the unicorns would cooperate to provide beautiful, rainbow-colored power.
One problem is that is not the dude’s name, and the article still hasn’t been corrected.
I assume he’s still white.
Welcome to the Communist destruction of the Western world the Marxist socialist Demokkkrat labor parties are hell bent on destroying the Western world. So suck it up people until you get rid of all of them you’re going to have to live with this.
To paraphrase Churchill,
“The Californians can be relied upon to do the right thing…
…after they have exhausted every other alternative”.
I have sat and watched Western energy policy being flushed down the toilet for 20 years, whilst carpet baggers got rich, and the people were lied to.
In the UK we had a minor power cut, due to too much renewable and unconventional generation being on the grid. California needs to have a total blackout lasting days, before people will start to question the total folly that is ‘renewable energy’. The same goes for Germany.
We have to sit through the exhaustion of all the other alternatives I am afraid. Because it is only by making the right predictions, and them coming true, that people will know to trust our judgement.
In the long term – late 21st/early 22nd century, if civilisation is to continue, it has to be nuclear powered.But it will take a generation before that truth is generally accepted.
“In the UK we had a minor power cut, due to too much renewable and unconventional generation being on the grid.”
When was that Leo?
A year ago, the Hornsea offshore windfarm disconnected in the fifteen minute window ending at 5pm, and a gas fired plant at Little Barford tripped out at 4:58 pm as it could not alone maintain the frequency on the same transmission line to London. There was apparently a lightning strike at that time which should have had no effect on transmission reliability. “Coincidentally”, the grid company had tweeted earlier that day they had set a new record for the proportion of unreliables providing electricity with the reliable generators being turned off to make room.
Added to the Hornsea wind farm powercut a year ago was that in another remarkable “coincidence”, the very next day the operators were told to reduce the amount of destabilising power it was applying to the grid, and paid £100,000 in compensation for not being paid the normal fees to destabilise the grid.
Thanks Paul, but I was aware of that one. See upthread:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/18/operators-fighting-with-politicians-to-keep-grid-from-collapse/#comment-3064490
I thought perhaps Leo was referring to a different “power cut”.
So do you disagree with Ofgem’s analysis of the Hornsea/Little Barford “issue”?
Leo, you say, California needs to have a total blackout lasting days, before people will start to question the total folly that is ‘renewable energy’. The same goes for Germany.
We both know, as a WUWT blogger recently posted, “There are no strengths in renewables. Every increase in renewable energy inflicted on a grid weakens the nation, drives up electricity costs, impoverishes the poor and threatens the elimination of industry.”
I retired from the midwest to California 10 years ago. But most Cali’s were educated in Cali and most of them would conclude that the blackouts are Trump’s fault because he won’t shut down fossil fuels and stop global warming. We need a Plan “B” and there is only one. Because of time constraints with Cali politics the decision to shutdown Diablo Canyon can not stand. it’s not complicated
Jim, Sorry I didn’t get back to you, but yes, if you look at Ofgem’s technical document of the incident it does give timings of the incident, with the lighning strike immediately followed by the Hornsea failure immediately followed by the Little Barford (and other) cascading shutdowns. The fact that lighning strikes on transmission lines are a normal occurence handled by the equipment in place for many years does suggest that something has happened to reduce the reliability of such systems. The fact that Hornsea failed first is indicative of the possibility that it was that failure rather than the lightning strike that caused the subsequent failures. The Ofgem report does not reach a conclusion – it basically just says this shouldn’t happen and both generators are paying compensation. However it does state that in it’s view of the Little Barford fault “the steam turbine’s anomalous speed readings and the resulting trip were due to the transmission network fault following the lightning strike”. It is therefore reasonable to infer that the Hornsea failure which followed the lightning strike, but preceded the Little Barford fault may have introduced an uncontrolled element to the transmission network fault.