Guest essays by Eric Worrall
Imagine the horror of being able to swim at Blackpool beach without needing a resuscitation team with a hypothermia kit on standby.
Climate change: 40°C summer temperatures could be common in UK by 2100
July 1, 2020 1.46am AEST
Lisa Baldini
Lecturer in Environmental Science, Teesside UniversityA stark warning about the kind of summer that could become routine in the UK by the end of this century has been issued in a new study by the country’s Met Office.
Using temperature data and climate model simulations, the researchers tested the likelihood of UK temperatures exceeding 30°C, 35°C, and 40°C each summer over the next 80 years.
They found that if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, temperatures exceeding 40°C could be reached somewhere in the UK every three-and-a-half years by 2100.
If you live or have travelled in a hot climate, you might know the stifling heat that envelops your body when the thermometer breaks 40°C. But there is a difference between experiencing that kind of heat from a pool or through the window of an air conditioned hotel room, and living in that heat for several days without reprieve.
In England alone, 2,000 people every year already die from heat related illnesses. While traditionally warmer climes have adapted over time to soaring summer temperatures, the UK is not prepared to handle these kinds of heatwaves.
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The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK was broken on July 25 2019, when the mercury hit 38.7°C in Cambridge. That same summer, temperatures in France soared to 46°C and claimed 1,500 lives. Although devastating, this was nothing compared to the 15,000 victims who succumbed during France’s August 2003 heatwave.
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Read more: https://theconversation.com/climate-change-40-c-summer-temperatures-could-be-common-in-uk-by-2100-141479
The MET study is available here.
According to The Conversation author Lisa Baldini, the UK is not prepared to handle these kinds of heatwaves.
But even if global warming occurs as predicted, its not like 40C British heatwaves will become a common occurrence starting tomorrow. We’re talking about a gradual change. By the end of 80 years of slowly rising temperatures (or falling temperatures or whatever) UK people would be well and truly adapted to whatever climate they experience by the end of the century, just as British colonists in Australia quickly adapted to our much warmer climate.
The death of 1500 people in the 2019 heatwave, or the 15,000 who died in 2003, is a tragedy. But according to the UK Government, there were 49,410 excess deaths in the winter of 2017-18, and 23,200 deaths in the 2018-19 winter. Milder winters would likely reduce overall excess mortality. A few heatwaves seems a small price to pay, to reduce that dreadful winter excess mortality rate.
We experienced 42 deg C and 47 deg C one week on the NSW south coast some years ago and we survived it. We had a strong westerly system and it brought very warm air from the land to the west. The poor old air conditioner only managed to reduce the temp to 27 deg C.
I really don’t know what they are worried about. 40 deg C has never stopped me going about my business.
John
“MET Office: Climate Change will Force the UK to Endure French Holiday Weather”
Yes, the same way that we were told that, by 2010, pineapples would be farmed in Scotland.
There’s a business opportunity in this. There are no houses in the UK fitted with what the French called volets. The best and most environmentally friendly way of keeping a house cool in summer, stop heat getting in. In France you can tl the Houses owned by Brits, the volets are always open except when the owners are away.
“A stark warning” LOL!
“by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 °C at least once per decade.”
My god those poor people.
More seriously though, I’d just like to point out that the 15,000 deaths in France due to the heatwave of 2003, which these alarmist’s love to trot out on a regular basis, was largely due to major socio-political problems that amplified the tragedy.
Just to put the numbers in perspective, of the nearly 32,000 excess deaths that have been observed in all 921 heat waves identified between 1974 and 2013 in France, half of them occurred in that one episode in 2003.
A national early warning system was rolled out after that, “le plan national canicule”, which has helped enormously in avoiding a repeat of that awful event.
I lived in the south of France for 20 years, 44C was th hottest. You get used to it. Oh, and there are lots of old people about, in fact they live longer and healthier than we do in the UK.
The MetOffice really are so full of BS it is extraordinary.
South France climate is a good one, where I lived, the Sea Alpes are in the backyard, with some snow in winter, nice to see cactacea coverd with snow. 😀
OMG this will mean that the small colony of scorpions at one of our outer London tube stations will multiply and the scorpions grow to horrendous sizes before spreading throughout the London tube system and making central London uninhabitable.
Is there no end to the horror of warmer temperatures…now where did I leave my sunglasses?
“A stark warning about the kind of summer that could become routine in the UK by the end of this century has been issued in a new study by the country’s Met Office.”
There are many beaches I would not swim in in the UK not least Blackpool.
80 years from now? I actually like a 40+ degree summer day (And I used to live in the UK/Ireland), as we get in Australia usually, but with humidity down to 15%-ish. It’s hot but it is dry! Sheesh, anything above 50% humidity (Water) and all you want to do is stay inside in an air conditioned space, anywhere!
Fortunately for those making these predictions they won’t be around.
Hey, what’s going on ? We were promised Mediterranean summers by 2050. It must be true because they said so on the Bullshit Broadcasting Corporation. Now we have to wait until 2100.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4091068.stm
Oops ! I see that Right-Handed Shark has already posted this link.
I got caught by Right-Handed shark’s post and link. I thought the link would be an article I recall sometime ago which concluded that sharks were in danger as CO2 level rises in the oceans were rendering sharks Left Handed so could have difficulties catching their prey. I had a good giggle at the time. Can anyone else remember this?
I was at Blackpool yesterday, and I can assure you that not one person was swimming.
And then the tide went out.
(At Blackpool – Lytham, you have to be a marathon runner to catch up with the receding tide….!
R
Oh the pain the pain.
Where’s the evidence for all these claims? The Met Office can’t even tell us how much warmth a doubling of CO2 will add to the atmosphere, yet they are making these predictions as if they can.
Be skeptical. Be very skeptical. Don’t accept unsubstantiated speculation as facts.
Because this study hasn’t to be taken as warning but as enjoyable statement….
😀
Exactly two hot days in June and its global warming, they dont even tell people they use Heathrow’s airport to take the hottest temps ,= tarmac, concrete and jets, nor do they state it’s mainly the south that sees the warmest temps. How about the west today rain all morning ,mist, only now has the sun come out ,and the next 3 days forcast rain, + below average temps.
From the paper
“By the end of the century…crossing the 35C becomes common in the South East under RCP4.5 and over most of England under RCP8.5.The highest threshold of 40C is to be exceeded at least once a century in the London area under RCP4.5 and several times a century over most of South East England under RCP8.5”
I guess by that time most people will have adapted to or taken steps to mitigate the effects!
Digital Technology Group has a weather station “on its roof” .Not a pristine weather station! It is about 2km from the Botanic Garden. On that day in July,it was 2 degrees cooler according to their measuring device. ( Measured in real time). The NIAB weather station ( Met Office) also shows a lower temperature(still shown as raw data)and about the same distance from the BG.
Plus, of course, RCP8.5 is a fantasy scenario disbelieved by even devoted climate alarmists!
The above attempt at doom and gloom leaves me not breathless, and every bit as concerned as I am about the starving, oops I mean thriving polar bears.
Good riddance prophets of dumb-I mean doom!
Been there. Seen it. Done it. When I was five years old. Never again.
But lets imagine the rise of the British currency when so many UK residents spend their holidays and retirement at home rather than in the Mediterranean. Being diplomatic, the Spaniards, in particular, may regret the loss of earnings, but not miss some of the visitors.