Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Around the world, both state and local governments looked at wildly exaggerated computer model projections of millions of virus deaths, declared a “State Of Emergency”, and foolishly pulled the wheels off of their own economies. This has caused pain, suffering, and loss that far exceeds anything that the virus might do.
The virus hardly affects anyone—it has killed a maximum of 0.1% of the population in the very worst-hit locations. One-tenth of one measly percent.
Ah, I hear you saying, but that’s just deaths. What about hospitalizations? Glad you asked. Hospitalizations in the worst-hit areas have been about three times that, about a third of one percent of the population. Still not even one percent.
But on the other hand, more than thirty million workers in the US are unemployed. That’s about twenty percent of the number of full and part-time employees. And that job loss affects the entire household, not just the workers.
And that doesn’t count the loss of life from increased suicides and from delayed medical diagnosis and procedures. Nor does it count the fact that some 20% of the lost jobs are not expected to return. And we have calls to mental-health hotlines skyrocketing, and domestic violence through the roof. In a most ironic outcome, we have hospitals and doctors going bankrupt, and thousands of nurses being furloughed, because “non-essential” medical procedures are forbidden. Then there are the huge financial losses, both to the economy and to the government.
And in a beautifully circular process, we have trillions and trillions of dollars borrowed by the government to try to offset some of the damages that the government just caused … these lockdowns are far, far more destructive than the virus. The virus damage is short-lived, but we and our children will be paying for decades for our stupidity in killing the economy.
It’s like … it’s like … well, about the only example I can think of which has equivalent idiocy is if a mosquito were to land on your head and you grabbed a sledgehammer to get rid of it …
So the first lesson of the emergency is, don’t kill your economy to try to delay or avoid a few deaths. It is possible to slow the spread of the virus without pulling the wheels off of the economy.
The next lesson of the emergency is, don’t put much trust in computer models.
The next lesson of the emergency is, don’t put doctors in charge of economic decisions. Especially Dr. Fauci. He’s been wrong about most aspects of this whole process. If you want someone to run a hospital, as a general rule you shouldn’t hire a doctor …
The next lesson of the emergency is the extreme importance of the ancient medical maxim of Hippocrates, a maxim that our dear Dr. Fauci apparently never heard of—“Primum non nocere”, which means “First, do no harm”.
The next lesson of the emergency is, quarantine the sick, protect the vulnerable, but do NOT quarantine the healthy. That’s madness.
Let me set aside what we’ve learned to return to the COVID19 emergency. The emergency everyone feared was exemplified by the reality that in some countries, the medical system was overwhelmed by the number of COVID-19 cases. The cause of this was that the cases came on too fast—the peak hospitalizations and deaths were packed into a week or two. Early on in the pandemic, this peak in the load on the medical system in Italy caused parts of the system to collapse under the weight of cases.
To prevent that peak load from crushing the medical system, it was decided in many countries to try to “flatten the curve” by slowing the spread of the virus. Note that the stated intention of flattening the curve was not to stop the virus. The declared goal was to decrease the number of new cases per day, not to decrease the total number of new cases.
Figure 1. The theoretical effect of “flattening the curve”.
In that manner, rather than having a sharp peak in medical need, the curve would be flattened out and hopefully the medical system would not be overwhelmed.
So … did this work? Hard to tell at this point. However, we do have one example of a modern country that did NOT shut down and kill their economy to fight the virus, which is Sweden. How are they doing? Here’s the comparison:
Figure 2. Deaths per ten million over time, for the hardest-hit countries.
As you can see, Sweden is in the middle of the pack—a bit better than the UK and Switzerland, same as the Netherlands and Ireland, and a bit worse than the US and France.
So if the lockdowns and the “shelter-at-home” orders are having an effect, you couldn’t tell it by looking at Sweden.
And to return to the question of lowering the peak and flattening the curve, here are the results from a number of countries. I’ll start with Sweden and the Netherlands, since per Figure 2 they are on the same path. I’m using the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) method to remove the fluctuations due to incomplete data reporting on the weekends. See here and here for a discussion of the CEEMD method.
Figure 3. Daily deaths. The black/yellow line is the CEEMD “residual”, which is the value of the data with the weekly and other regular fluctuations removed.
Figure 4. Daily deaths. The black/yellow line is the CEEMD “residual”, which is the value of the data with the weekly and other regular fluctuations removed.
Both the Netherlands and Sweden are past the peak load on the medical system. Neither one was overwhelmed by that load. The difference is … Sweden did not pull the wheels off of its economy and drive millions into joblessness and despair. I know which path I prefer …
Here are the daily deaths of a number of other countries. I’ll start with Belgium, which is the hardest-hit country, and roll on down from there.
OK, so much for the countries. All are about a month past their peak. How about the US states? Here you go.
The spike in the New York data is from a single day’s reporting of a bunch of “overlooked” deaths in nursing homes. Bizarrely, Governor Cuomo ordered nursing homes to accept COVID-19 patients … so as you might imagine, the totally predictable nursing home deaths were concealed until their hand was forced.
I also note how resistant the CEEMD residual is to that single outlier data point of nursing home deaths. A better-guess solution would be to spread those deaths out over the earlier time, distribute by the number of non-nursing home deaths.
(In passing, let me note that Georgia started loosening the lockdown on April 20th, and there’s no sign of a “second peak” of deaths.)
Those are the hardest-hit states. However, not all of the hardest-hit states are past their peak. Here are the two states of the hardest-hit that are not past their peak.
Finally, to close the circle before discussing all of this, here are two views of the world deaths, one with and one without China. I left out China in one of them to see how much difference it made, because a) China’s numbers are big, and b) I don’t trust them one bit. Here are those two charts. It turns out that leaving out China makes very little difference.
So … given all of that, what can we conclude?
Well, first in importance, if medical care was outpaced by the virus in some location and there was an emergency, the peak of the emergency is over now. Yes, there are some states and countries yet to pass the peak. But by and large, and in particular for the hardest-hit countries as well as for the world as a whole, the peak of the medical load from the pandemic passed about a month ago.
And that means that in those states and countries, whatever chance we had to “flatten the curve” is GONE. The opportunity has passed. For most of the world, curve flattening is history.
And since we were sold this bill of goods on the basis of “flattening the curve”, and since we’re now well past any opportunity to do that, let’s remove the restrictions. Or as I’ve said for weeks, “End The American Lockdown Now”.
Of course, the local petty tyrants who have vastly expanded powers under the “emergency” want to hold on to them. So they’re now saying that we have something new to fear, a “rebound” or a “second peak” … me, I’ve said before that I think we will see very little in the way of any second peak, for a simple reason:
As Sweden has shown, the virus laughs at our pathetic western-style “shelter in place” regulations.
Too many people in “essential” jobs, too many deliveries, too many people coming and going from the households. Combine that with a very infectious virus, and the shelter in place will have little effect … and since it has had little effect when it was there, I say it will have little effect when it is removed.
Now, here’s my argument. The various local instant totalitarian rulers derive their power from the State of Emergency. But the emergency is past, we can’t flatten the curve now. We’re past that, which means there is no further emergency. So them holding onto that power now that the emergency is ended is illegitimate and illegal. It’s also in some cases unconstitutional.
Here’s what I’d do …
• In those countries and states that are past the peak, declare the emergency is over and open everything back up. Acknowledge that the chance to flatten the curve is gone, and revoke each and every emergency order. They are only valid for the duration of the emergency.
• Maintain some approximation of social distancing, on a voluntary basis.
• There are flareups in certain locations now, even with all of the regulationss. There will be flareups after the regs are removed. Get used to it. A flareup is not a second peak.
• Maintain personal sanitation on a voluntary basis. Wear a mask, wear gloves, wash hands, and for goodness sake, if you’re ordering bat soup, tell them to hold the bats …
• Once the majority of the pandemic deaths are over, establish a testing and contact tracing process to keep track of the virus.
• Test people entering the country. As far as I know, I get tested more going in to get my blood drawn than do people entering the US.
• Keep a close watch on the numbers to see if there is some kind of “second peak” developing. If and where that might happen, then in those areas that had trouble with the first peak, push policies that don’t kill the economy, and for heaven’s sake, quarantine the sick rather than the healthy.
• Encourage the vulnerable population (elderly with co-morbidities, immunocompromised, etc.) to self-isolate to some comfortable extent, to be extra vigilant in avoiding crowds, and to maintain a high level of personal sanitation.
Folks, the ugly reality is that every day we keep the now-useless lockdowns in place is another day of misery for a large chunk of the population. COVID-19 is now a part of the virus landscape. Let’s reclaim the power from the Federal, state, county, and city megalomaniacs who are issuing diktats and expecting everyone to obey.
END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN NOW!
Here, the unusual late rains have returned. We didn’t get one drop in February, which is usually wet, so these late rains are most wonderful.
Best to all, stay well,
w.
AFTERWORD: I note today that Matt Briggs, Statistician To The Stars, has a new post up entitled “There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm“. His posts are always worth reading, and he actually is a statistician to the stars.
PS—When you comment, please quote the exact words you’re referring to. This prevents much misunderstanding and useless argumentation.
„Attention, Citizens! The #COVID19 Emergency Is Over!“
Sure, the first act is over, but this is a three-act play. So, please, keep your panic, there is no reason to be calm.
no wonder, Mr Monckton, has done a runner.
An impressive summary Willis. If only there was some way to bring it to the attention of the idiots in Govt, media and Civil Service who rule Britain today. One of their latest schemes is to fund vaccine research with £744Million ($1Biilion I suppose in the global currency) from a bankrupt exchequer, with no guarantee of success since coronaviruses (so I read here) are difficult to control by vaccination.
Oh and all major roads will be reduced in width for cars to increase cycle lanes which means increasingly staionary traffic with engines running, and the cycle lanes empty. All part of Boris’s scheme to restore the economy by destroying it with Green madness. Some reports say that during Wuhan flu illness the brain may be starved of oxygen , inflicting permanent damage. The reports may be correct.
Every third hospitalized person is dead.
This is what YOU say.
I am very glad we had protective measures.
Iran was one of the first hard hit states.
Young people were falling dead on the streets.
Iran is the early bird.
Check their statistics.
It looked exactly what you suggested: the “emergency” seemed to be “over”.
That was two weeks ago…
Now check it once more.
There is a second wave coming. And it is gonna be high.
You really believe it is just Iran and our countries will be much different?
Naive…
We even did not have the very first wave of the virus yet.
Please bear in mind that this is easy to conclude with the benefit of hindsight. I support the conclusion, stop the lock down but that does not mean that it was a bad idea from the start. Remember the images from northern Italy and the despair of the healthcare professionals the army moving the stockpiling corpses. In the aftermath we will hopefully get a clear picture of how the disease works, the infection path, mutations, true numbers etc. and maybe we will do better next pandemic, or, even better, be more reactive in responding to an outbreak before it develops into a pandemic.
Alexander Vissers May 14, 2020 at 12:51 am
Hindsight? I posted my first broadside on this subject, entitled END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN NOW, on the 21st of March, which is almost two months ago.
That’s foresight, not hindsight.
w.
See the result, now. That’s what happens when state policies are driven by emotions and not rationality. When driven by “images” instead of science repeatable facts.
Themis Diakos: “That’s what happens when state policies are driven by emotions and not rationality. When driven by “images” instead of science repeatable facts.”
WR: Agree. In this era ‘Science’ became dependent on politicians (for money) and systems have been built to pay for ‘popular science’ (number of citations needed, press attention etc.). Long term goals in science often disappeared: being popular became important. Now ‘science’ is telling politicians what politicians want to hear: the indepency of Science is gone, an independency that was fundamental in the creation of modern societies. Only an independent Science was able to unravel basic laws over periods of decades and centuries and could help to put into practice the new knowledge by assisting in developing new technologies.
Politicians don’t have any knowledge about the many subjects they have to take decisions on. They have their ‘advisers’ that read the books written by political (!) institutes like the UN, the organisation in which pressure groups have taken central positions. UN is not anymore reigned by Nations. And Science is not anymore lead by smart professors. And rationality is not anymore leading nations. And preparing for REAL dangers became irrelevant: imaginary problems in the 21st century that could, may, might happen became leading. The Climate nonsense is telling.
Societies that are not prepared for real problems showed panic, both in Science and in policy. We now see the results of systems that have been built during the last decades. Fundamental things have to change.
This virus is a wake up-call.
I agree.
For decades, it has become fashionable among researchers to look after statistic correlations. This approach, when not backed up by causality (that is, real science) is slowly destroying science. The Climate nonsense was the first one to use it, almost systematically.
I was astonished to see how many so-called “research” about SARS-CoV-2 was simply a correlation approach to the problem. We were literally buried under a pile of nonsense.
“Fundamental things have to change.” as you say.
As to the comparison between Sweden and the Netherlands, the lock-down in the Netherlands was very moderate. Both countries isolated the care homes for the elderly the main population at risk -in Belgium accounting for 2/3 rds of the death toll. Sweden kept schools bars and restaurants open but mass gatherings are prohibited. The rest of the measures does not so much reduce death toll as it helps to reduce the overall spread of the virus such that remaining cores can be traced and addressed.
Big difference in populations though. Netherlands is heavily populated compared to Sweden.
One thing I take away from all this is the neo-colonialism. The West destroys the global economy to save thousands of elderly and sick which leads to the deaths of millions, including many children, in the third world.
In the film ‘Battle of Britain’ there is a scene where I think Dowding is challenged on his RAF and the Luftwaffe losses, as German media is claiming his figures are wildly exaggerated.
He snaps ‘If we are right, they will give up and go away, if they are right, they will be here by Christmas’.
Sometimes it doesn’t matter what the truth is, except to those who claim monopoly of it. Knowing the truth doesn’t change a lot really.
I note that is a new angle of attack on the Trump, as he is now ‘anti science’ and the forces of – well the usual unholy mix of corporate profit and the Linberal technocrats – are now insisting that lockdown ends.
Irrespective of the facts, this will happen, cautiously. And the case rate and the death rate will tell its own story.
I am reminded of the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam: An Islamic poet, pondering ‘kismet’
The moving finger writes,
and having writ, moves on.
Nor all thy piety, nor wit
Can lure it back to cancel half a line –
Nor all thy tears, wash out one word of it.
Que sera, sera..
Just because death on a grand scale doesn’t happen to us Suburban Westerners any more – after all that’s what is so good about being Suburban Westerners isn’t it? – it simply can’t be happening now, can it? Science and charts and stuff will save us. Won’t they?
I hope it isn’t as bad as feared. I hope desperately that people are wrong, but I wouldn’t want the blood on my hands forming national and international policy based on that.
I’m behind every single government saying, ‘chill, we will relax things a little and see what happens’ Unlike the confidence shown by so many posters here, I really have no idea what the true state of affairs is. But then I know perhaps a little more math. If you know none, than you can be confident in your ignorance. The more you know, the less confident one feels. The Chinese do not tell the truth – they hide things. And yet they admitted to shutting down a population the size of a USA state or a European country. They were scared. Really scared. Perhaps we should be too.
Of course when one’s own government has been lying to one for years, about climate change and renewable energy, there is a strong temptation to say that they are lying now, for the same reason – desire to control, dominate and remove democracy. And make a fat profit at one’s expense.
For every person who says that the scientific method assumes that what worked yesterday will work tomorrow, there is another wise guy saying the past is no guide to the future.
I leave you to your comfortable arguments, and appeals to data.
Morituri, te salutamus
Yes, globally we have flattened the curve.
Next issue.
When can we open up international air travel?
When stop social distancing and wearing masks?
When everything go back to “normal”?
I would say that we had to flatten the curve, because of how china failed to protect
the rest of the world. And the advanced {or those that use a lot air travel} AND the civilized world had to do the job that China failed to do. And that very a very expensive way to deal with this China virus.
And it seems the civilized world have continue to protect the rest of the World and this going to be mostly about international air travel.
We don’t want to do anything like “a china” to the rest of the world.
A main thing is getting enough knowledge about the “state of virus”, or can’t go, oops caused an outbreak of the virus in some other country.
Or we flattened the curve, globally, because we shutdown international air travel {or restricted/limited it a lot]. Simply, we can not sent infected people to other countries and returning to international air travel is going to take some more time.
Or we will probably go back to crowded stadiums before that occurs.
What about, when do stop wearing these masks. It seems we leave lockdown slowly. And do the wearing mask, social distancing, and etc and see what happens, and we wait at least a week before, having a clue what result of lifting what lockdown measured is lifted. Or any result in first few days- doesn’t mean anything in terms of new infection spread, as takes a few days after being infect, before effects are noticeable/testable, so in week of time, you assess situation. Of course there will be uncertainty, but would say it this way, in week you trying to decide what further removal of lockdown you might do in another week time, or planning go back to lockdown you left, starting in another week. But rather go back to lockdown, you could take other measures- such as do a massive amount of contact tracing. But if things go well, then remove more lockdown measures after 2 weeks from when started to end some lockdown measure.
And maybe within a month- decide to stop the face masks and/or social distancing requirement.
In terms of priority, I get kids back to school immediately, but I do 1/2 class size for first 2 weeks- half as much kids go to school in a day and giving 1/2 class size- or kids don’t get a whole school week, but could give them more homework. And got have plan so can finish school year, and ready for next year. And assuming no problems, do full schedule after 2 weeks. And within 2 weeks, kids should all know what they have to do to finish year, and be ready for next year {might require a lot of homework}.
And back to “normal” {other than international air travel] could be by mid-summer. Everywhere, globally.
Now, might do changes in Air travel and mass transportation vehicles to limit any kind of spread of virus- which could also allow international air travel to begin faster.
Great summary, Willis! An exceptional post and I really appreciate all the effort you’ve put in on this topic over all these weeks.
I’ve been on the same page as you, philosophically (and I would say, scientifically) since the beginning of this viral outbreak so I completely agree with your analysis of the data and what needs to be done now!
Human beings can’t shelter in caves forever – if our ancestors had done that, we would have become extinct, as a species, a long time ago!
Keep up the great work, sir!
As far as I can tell, the Taiwanese have done the best job in the world, and have the best results, and Taiwan didn’t have an economy-destroying lockdown. link
Taiwan should be studied. Individual people should understand exactly what happened and why. One of the family members with deep roots in Taiwan tells me that one of the reasons for Taiwan’s success is that Taiwanese citizens uniformly obeyed the government ordered restrictions.
Taiwan got on the problem early and hard. Everybody else was left closing the barn door after the horses had left.
Because it’s possible to spread this coronavirus long before you show symptoms, a country can be widely infected before anyone knows there’s a problem. link
Taiwan didn’t listen to the WHOs recommendations that shutting down travel between your nation and China would only make the problem worse. By the problem, I think they must have meant the ongoing success of capitalism.
IHMO, there is so little consistency in the data, comparisons of national summary figures are probably not productive. However considering outliers might yield insights.
Taiwan indeed has shown excellent results (except in being included in WHO meetings), but they have a trivial number of cases, which to me means they have a large number of susceptible people. S. Korea has a much larger number of cases which they managed to control effectively with a very low death rate. If I were looking for advice on epidemic management and critical care treatment I would definitely be talking to the Koreans. The S. Korean head of their national infectious disease agency states positively that masks do work and people should wear them. He could be influenced by cultural bias, but I’d still take that advice rather than argue.
Germany did not manage to control the infection spread as well as S. Korea, but they have a much lower fatality/infection case ratio than France or UK — why? I’d really like to know what explains that. Are they attributing deaths differently or do they have different treatment regimens?
There has got to be loads of interesting data from infection results in the military — an overwhelmingly young and fit population. This would really help assessing the likely risk for the working-age population, but I gather the military doesn’t want to release that data publicly. But someone involved in the federal task force should be looking at it. Plus the nice thing about military patients is you can count on almost 100% compliance with orders to submit to follow-up tests — no disappearing patients from your study sample.
Alan, you level 7 climate denialist rogue, you !
Great piece on “cutting through the matrix”
Why don’t you try to get a story or two posted here as a guest author?
Try submitting a short treatise, see link at the top of the page, but do keep out any profanities 😉
How’s the weather/climate “oop north, ken” ?
Can YOU see the wood for the trees at least ?
The chance has not “GONE”, it was taken. You seem to ignore that the peaks we see occurred when they did in large part because of confinement. Sweden got it exactly right but that does not mean it would have worked out the same in NYC.
The other side of flattening the curve is that when you relax measures it spreads again. That does not seem to be at all visible in Spain and Italy which started unwinding on 14th April. That means there’s some major factors which are NOT accounted for by the simplistic modelling the likes of Dr. Fauci and Prof Pantsdown are working with.
I agree with you that this was ill-conceived and should have been walked back at least a month ago in Europe.
They have quite deliberately provoked an economic crisis, which was probably coming anyway. This just gives them an excuse to pretend the system was not on the point of imploding anyway.
2 out of 3 people that have been confirmed with SARS-COV-2 in NYC were sheltering at home…
You are correct, what is your point?
This year’s flu season ended at least 4 weeks sooner than it has ever ended before. I used the WHO ‘Flu-net’ global influenza reporting website to find it.
To see this year’s rapid ending at around week 13 go here (flu season usually runs to weeks 18-22
https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=6
To check the database for your own country use this tool
https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=7
The main page with all tools is here https://www.who.int/influenza/resources/charts/en/
It appears to me that a large number of flu cases are being written up as covid cases
“It appears to me that a large number of flu cases are being written up as covid cases”
Or that the Covid opportunistically attacked vulnerable people who might otherwise have succumbed to flu.
Maybe something in between perhaps. It’s a virus it isn’t a living thing, so it can’t ‘opportunistically’ do a single thing. It’s a bit of protein
Viruses can mutate and adapt to their environment. I agree that it is questionable whether “living” applies but they do adapt in the Darwinian sense.
Could adaptation be the wrong term ? I adapt to my environment, in order to achieve my goals
But, I have goals, and intent. Does a piece of protein have the same determination. Isn’t it just random chemistry ?
I know it seems pedantic, but we seem to attribute intelligence to enemies, even when they have no possibility of having intent. They just react with their environment
It’s not pedantic, it’s a valid point but who ever talked of a virus being intelligent or having “intent”?
Natural selection favours whatever flavour works better. This can be by random mutation and does not require any “intent” on the part of whatever is mutating.
There is a lot of confusion spread by stupid anthropomorphisation in pop science and scientists trying to talk down to the general population when speaking to media outlets.
I’ve seen lots of headlines about “vicious ” blackholes “murdering” nearby stars etc. Both of these terms imply intent and conscience which is no more appropriate than in the case of a virus.
Yes I get that, i think I’ve been too locked down.
Tensions are rising, need to be patient ! Don’t need to die of a heart attack brought on by a fake virus !
Well, just maybe the measures taken to suppress COVID-19 also had some effect on flu viruses?
Yes that was also pointed out elsewhere, after I posted it.
The WHO have noted the short season. For sure they’ll just use it as proof that distancing ‘works’
Willis: “quarantine the sick rather than the healthy”
WR: This is the main thing we learned in the West. Together with extensive track and tracing of ‘contacts’ this gives at least some control. Further the awareness that 80% of contaminations happen by family members could change social behavior where needed: better not to celebrate birthdays etc..
Shutting down physical contacts between people is what is needed to constrain the virus. Now that we see that there are many asymptomatic cases the virus seems easier to control than previously thought.
Better first ‘shut social contacts’ where needed then shut the full economy. That’s what we have learned.
Once you have massive spread of infection, “track and trace” is NOT a valid strategy. Governments still proposing this are simply seeking an excuse to further trash constitutional rights which have been an impediment to them.
REFUSE all attempts at intrusive, unconstitutional intrusion into your personal contacts, movement and association.
There is nothing in the constitution which says that in a state of emergency , the constituion no longer applies.
Greg: “REFUSE all attempts at intrusive, unconstitutional intrusion into your personal contacts, movement and association.”
WR: In case of a war, rules change. In case of a war common interest weighs heavier than personal interest. When a virus is destroying an economy (and when there is not yet a good other answer) you have to fight a war against the virus. Then the common interest becomes prevalent.
The original Wuhan report (flawed or not) is here
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.22.914952v1.full.pdf
Lines 78-80 show a 94.6% resemblance to SARS-CoV (SARS), hence why this one is named SARS-CoV-2
Line 242 shows this virus’s familial position among all coronaviruses.
Useful to have, when confonted with someone who insists “It’s completely new, we’ve never had a coronavirus before”
94.6% sounds like *really* similar but in genetics it is *really* differnt.
It like homo sapiens vs water buffalo.
If you came across the fossilised remains of a water buffalo would you say: H. sapiens-2 and conclude there was just a genetic jump which happened in a “wet market” ?? Boeuf-a-l’eau : must be from a wet market , right?
Thanks but, when I read the report from Wuhan, can you explain to me how THEY knew what it was due to it’s similarity ?
Accumulated evidence and agreement in the scientific community. A lot of things have changed their names over time due to new insights.
For the history of SARS-CoV-2:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095448/
Willis
“Here’s what I would do..”
There are many types preventions and treatments.
You are really only focusing on different types of isolation preventions, which I agree with.
But other preventions could be about improving people’s health( immune system) in a number of ways.
Two examples I just dreamed up.
#1. Marketing campaign about having healthy lifestyle
#2. Blood test vulnerable people for vitamins deficiency. Say free blood test for over 65s . Oh sir you are deficient in zinc or vitamin D.
“Epidemiologist Dr Knut Wittkowski explains in a new interview that the danger of Covid19 is comparable to an influenza and that the peak was already passed in most countries before the lockdown. The lockdown of entire societies was a „catastrophic decision“ without benefits but causing enormous damage. The most important measure is the protection of nursing homes. According to Dr. Wittkowski, Bill Gates‘ statements on Covid19 are „absurd“ and „have nothing to do with reality“. Dr. Wittkowski considers a vaccination against Covid19 „not necessary“ and the influential Covid19 model of British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson a „complete failure“.
Willis Eschenbach wrote:
And that doesn’t count the loss of life from increased suicides and from delayed medical diagnosis and procedures.
This is turning out to be enormous and immediate:
British Medical Journal:
“Staggering number” of extra deaths in community is not explained by covid-19
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931
“Only a third of the excess deaths seen in the community in England and Wales can be explained by covid-19, new data have shown.”
Not only did emptying the hospitals of old people to make way for COVID-19 victims (who didn’t show up nearly as much as “modelled”) cause thousands of COVID-19 deaths in care homes, it caused an even larger number to die from the lack of normal treatment they would have received.
Is there a rural New York?
It is clear the all the variables of the virus are unknown.
Age impacts, comorbidity impacts, weather impacts appear obvious for everyone.
But two other variables are becoming interesting.
#1 the variation in R0
#2 the variation in population density.
My colleague Mr H the architect presents or consults with 20-30 people a week. Whereas I (the Engineer) meet only about 10 people a week*.
Our partial lockdown has reduced Mr H contact to about 5 and me to about 5.
I don’t believe full lockdown is necessary, just a reduction in higher risk contacts
* I don’t include saying gday in the hallway.
Sorry I forgot to highlight we have many projects in rural towns, spread significantly reduced by our partial lockdown
Reducing contacts is very efficient in bringing the epidemic to a halt this study claims:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/04/science.abb8001
So you don’t need a lockdown. You need contact reduction.
Problem is a lot of things require people gathering in big groups in confined space with bad ventilation. The Chinese restaurant study is very intriguing that in this environment even distant tables are not protective against infection by air flow:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
That explains why New York City with it’s huge night life scene but very small bars and restaurants was so good in spreading but it has broad implications for a lot of other businesses as well. Think about big office spaces, about non-automated production production facilities etc.
It has also implications about how asymptomatic people spread the disease. It has implications for commuting in public transportation which is further shown by the analyses in New York City hot spots:
https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42665370
Think about school buses and air conditioned class rooms.
This study had a look about spreading in a high school:
Works quite well in spreading. Colleges are therefore also expected to do a good job.
“Works quite well in spreading. Colleges are therefore also expected to do a good job.”
Spreading the virus among the young is indeed a Good Thing. In fact, for every age group it is a Good Thing for spreading among the younger. The older you get the more the ages for spreading being a Good Thing.
Imagine 100% infection in the 0-9 yr age group. Deaths in that group, so far, have been that COVID19 acts as the tipping point in one seriously ill. This would mean that contact with children would be safe. Grandparents need not be afraid to hug their grandchildren.
Imagine 100% infection in the 0-20 yr age group. School children and many college students could simply resume normal activities.
This might be enough of a herd to bring the R-naught below 1.
Being 76 I have skin in the game, I want everyone 62 years and younger to get back to work so I can stop my self-isolation. In my Winnebago touring the USA, meeting wonderful folks at Austin East KOA, now in Colorado (where the state campgrounds remain closed), perhaps Nebraska next.
You might reconsider this idea cause COVID-19 is a multi organ disease with unknown not characterized long term outcome:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2011400
Article about the study:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2011400
Scientists at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf have found that Covid-19 is a “multi-organ virus”. This also provides information on possible consequential damage to an infection.
The novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 is not a pure respiratory virus. In addition to the lungs, it can also be found in numerous other organs and organ systems. This was the result of a study at Hamburg University Hospital Eppendorf (UKE), which was published on Thursday. According to the researchers, the results provide information on early detection and possible consequential damage from a corona infection.
In their study, the kidney experts, microbiologists and pathologists from the UKE analyzed the autopsy results of 27 people who died from a Sars-CoV-2 infection. Specifically, the scientists were able to detect the pathogen in the lungs, throat, heart, liver, brain and kidneys. The highest concentrations of the virus per cell were found in the respiratory tract, followed by the kidney, heart, liver, brain and blood.
This makes Sars-CoV-2 a “multi-organ virus” that affects numerous organs. This could explain the sometimes wide range of symptoms that appear in corona infections. After the respiratory tract, the kidneys are particularly affected. This also explains the extremely high rate of up to 50 percent of acute kidney failure in severe Covid 19 courses, the experts said.
Dialysis machines were also becoming scarce
As a consequence of these results, urine tests are now recommended at the beginning of a coronavirus disease. Further studies should show whether urine changes can serve as an early warning system for severe Covid 19 courses.
In addition, aftercare also wants to pay much more attention to secondary diseases of individual organ systems. Because every second patient leaves the hospital after his recovery with slightly increased kidney values. According to Prof. Tobias B. Huber, head of the UKE study, the kidneys still have recovery potential even after acute failure.
The results of the study have now been published in the current edition of the renowned journal “New England Journal of Medicine”. Huber also reports a shortage of dialysis machines due to the large accumulation of severe kidney failure in the intensive care unit. “It sank a bit that in Italy and New York, in addition to ventilators, dialysis machines were also missing,” said Huber. The UKE therefore bought additional equipment.
I also wonder how vitamin D helps against renal disease, oh, wait, people with kidney failure have lower vitamin D levels – chicken and egg.
The virus can cause coronary artery calcification (CAC) which in turn can affect multiple organs.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04363840
Vitamin D is essential for proper calcium use by the body and it turns out that calcification of the kidneys is a bad thing.
Wrong. The authors use CAC that way:
No calcification.
This study has a finding that vitamin D supplementation might be pro-thrombotic and therefore contraindicated in the context of hypercoagulation:
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1076029614556745
The study came from this clinical trial:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT01761669
They expected to see the opposite. That is why we do trials.
Just talking in closed rooms could spread the virus more than initially thought:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117
One troubling thought is that AC dries out the air and could thereby promote aerosol vs droplet formation.
2nd Nurse Exposes the Realities In New York Hospitals.
The nurse describes Mr. Lerner’s utopian leftist society at its finest.
1:30 in and its already boring.
ADD playing up again Jim???
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2yJ-VaMDYs
Also confirmed by other nurses and M.Ds.
Very strong evidence emerging that vitamin D consumption plays an essential role in protecting against covid-19.
In the northern hemisphere the outbreak began towards the end of winter, when vitamin D deficiency is most likely.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930152
Did you read Nic Lewis on this site about how herd immunity comes at 10-20% due to varying susceptibility in the population? It varies by eg population density.
Will
And that may explain why the peaks are hit in less than a month in almost all countries.
Controversy rages:
– “The science suggests that being outside in sunlight, with good ventilation, are both highly protective against transmission of the virus,” he (Prof. Alan Penn) told MPs.
However:
– Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary warned that “sunbathing is against the rules”. He accused people of “putting others’ lives at risk” and warned that outdoor exercise could be banned if people did not keep away from parks.
Despite that:
– Many scientists have pointed out that there is currently no evidence that coronavirus has ever been transmitted outdoors, while there is abundant evidence of indoor transmission.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk
What a difference a year makes…
https://www.countryliving.com/uk/wellbeing/a27122546/doctors-tell-patients-outdoors-improve-wellbeing/
“Doctors are prescribing fresh air to boost the health and wellbeing of their patients, which will be known as ‘green health prescriptions’.
The new initiative will encourage people to spend more time outside in green spaces and around nature. Patients will be offered nature-based activities as part of their treatment or advice from their local doctor, which will be printed to look like GP prescriptions.
The NHS have explained that there is a strong connection between green space and good mental and physical health. Whether it’s a local woodland area, park or by simply getting fresh air close to where patients live, doctors are encouraging people to make the most of the outdoor space around them.
“There is no doubt that there is a strong connection between green space and good mental and physical health,’ explains Grant Archibald, chief executive of NHS Tayside to The Mirror.
“Parks, woodlands and open spaces make a real difference to how happy we feel. They also improve our immune system and encourage physical activity and social interaction,” continues Grant.”
Vuk
check this video out , it’s long but exposes the truth.
https://www.patrickbetdavid.com/former-aids-scientist-calls-out-dr-faucis-medical-corruption/
It exposes some truth. Telling which is truth and which is not is the challenge, but accepting the word of a felon carries risk.
She was help in custody with no charges. She’s a whistleblower, that’s her crime.
This article is titled “Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1
Now this is a non-peer reviewed study and “…extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province…” Keep that in mind.
Conclusion from the abstract: “Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.”
To simplify: get out in the fresh air… the benefits are high and the risk is very low.
Hospitalization rate and death rate have to be calculated from the number of infections not total population.
Spain has done an antibody test with 90,000 people in 36,000 households and comes back with a number of ~5% of their population having been infected at some time. 10% for Madrid, 2% in less hit regions.
For Spain that would result in an IFR of 1.2%. And as it becomes more and more clear that SARS-CoV-2 represents also as thromboembolism I suspect that a lot of strokes, heart attacks and organ failure are actually caused by the virus to induce hypercoagulation and those will not show up in the Spanish death statistics cause they are not testing a lot of people outside the hospitals and other deaths except pneumonia are not even considered to be caused by COVID-19.
Looking at the excess death statistics of Spain the official number even looks way too low:
https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Documents/informesMoMo2020/MoMo_Situacion%20a%205%20de%20abril_CNE.pdf
Btw hypercoagulation and the related diseases are, for a fact, highly overrepresented in African-Americans and so they are in the death rate.
A new study in Science estimates 4.4% for France, so way from herd immunity.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517
For France the hospitalization rate from the study was 3.6% with the lowest rate in women under 20y still being 0.2%. So the hospitalization rate would be ten times as much as you are suggesting on average and if you infect 20 millions under 20y you get 40,000 people hospitalized.
I hear these claims all the time but where’s the data? Hard data, not some people’s guesses.
That the US health care, unemployment and social security system is not very resilient against a pandemic is a different story.
In some countries the virus is spreading more easily than in other countries. One of the reason is that the virus prefers fatty tissue.
Overweight Covid-19 patients are especially vulnerable. This has been known since the virus started to manifest itself in countries with a high rate of obesity. (About obesity see https://renewbariatrics.com/obesity-rank-by-countries/ : “highest rate of obesity by population or by percentage“ (below the page)). The chances of ending up in intensive care double if the BMI is above 30 [Kg/m2].
In New York City, those over 60 years, compared with those with BMI lower than 30, the risk for critical care was 1.8 times (nearly 2) higher if the BMI was 30 to 34, and it was 3.6 times (nearly 4) higher if the BMI was above 35. (Prof. Naveed Sattar, University of Glasgow (UK))
Why is this so?
The first reason is that the antenna, the gate through which the virus enters our cells, is also present on fat tissue. The infection occurs through the nose or throat. Once you are infected, and the virus gets into your bloodstream, the virus can proliferate in your fat tissue, which have the right receptor for the virus. The more fat tissue you have, the more serious the infection will become.
There is interesting recent publication in which the authors describe how fat people also have hearths of fat cells (lipofibroblasts) in the lungs that can also be infected. Once infected, these give rise to scars, disruption of the lung architecture, poor oxygen absorption. Those patients become very seriously ill and often die. Those cells in the lungs get infected, and it’s those cells that give those horrible images seen on the scans of patients with that huge destruction regions on the lungs.
The publication can be downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/oby.22856
(techinical!): Ilja L. Kruglikov, and Philipp E. Scherer, THE ROLE OF ADIPOCYTES AND ADIPOCYTE-LIKE CELLS IN THE SEVERITY OF COVID-19 INFECTIONS.
This is one reason why the virus is more devastating in some countries (such as the USA).
There is a drug that could actually stop that transition from lipofibroblast (flexible fat cell) to the myofibroblast (scar cell of connective tissue): Avandia (rosiglitazone).
CAUTION! The applicability to Covid-19 patients of this drug has yet to be confirmed in studies. Possibly it could be a favorable step. Not only would mortality decrease, but rehabilitation would also go much faster.
The mentioned article concludes with the proposal that obesity has to be decreased in the long run, in view of the negative clinical prognosis.
The perfect communist bioweapon !
It does not really explain how hard Wuhan got hit.
I traveled to Wuhan regularly over a few years. There are a lot of fat (not morbidly obese like many Americans) people there, especially among those who lived through the cultural revolution. In some ways being overweight is considered a positive status symbol that 30 or 40 years ago was very rare.
Wuhan is crowded. During rush hour to get into and out of subways the crowding is like when a football game ends. Air pollution there is terrible. It’s overcast much of the time in winter and a lot of shops are underground in the city center. Some apartment complexes have thousands upon thousands of people living in a very small area. Hygiene practices are poor. It’s a second tier city and nasty in most areas.
Thanks for your insights. Like in many poor cultures, being fat means being wealthy ie “beautiful”.
Your other comments support what I said, that BMI does not explain Wuhan, pollution and density are probably far more relevent.
Pathologists have not described any finding in this direction. And it is actually quite amazing what pathologists can see just in a plain eosin/hematoxylin histological staining. Fibrosis can originate from a lot of cells. In fact, many cell types upregulate fibroblast marker when going into senescence. There is data that even neurons do so.