Guest “We gotta get out of this place” by
Eric Burden and the Animals David Middleton
Apr 9, 2020
Save Lives And Avoid A Catastrophic Recession
Getting the facts straight on how to make the world a better place.
The potential impact of the corona pandemic is enormous. But draconian policies to tackle the virus also have colossal costs. Ignoring the trade-offs could land us with one of the worst possible outcomes.
An Imperial College landmark study on death impacts from different policies helped change the minds of both President Donald Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson toward the implementation of lockdown policies. It showed that without any policies, the coronavirus would kill half a million people in the UK and 2.2 million in the US.
Unfortunately, the study also shows that such a successful reduction in infection means few people have gained immunity. So if restrictions are lifted in September, a second wave of infections will once again overwhelm society and kill almost as many.
Look at the costs first. Most of the early predictions were moderate. But the world’s much more severe policies have exploded the costs. According to JP Morgan, China’s economy will shrink by an unheard-of 40 percent in the first quarter of 2020. For the US, Goldman Sachs envisages a 24 percent second-quarter GDP reduction and Morgan Stanley a 30 percent drop. More than 16 million Americans or 10 percent of the workforce have lost their jobs over the past three weeks.
Moreover, most governments seem to have committed to draconian policies to avoid most deaths over the long term. These will cost much, much more. Economists are now suggesting the costs of continued extreme policies could be comparable to Germany in the 1920s or the US in the 1930s, with massive economic costs, a third of the workforce unemployed and a generational loss of opportunities.
Long-term shut-down policies can similarly lead to devastation: first destroying the economy, and then with their support withering and health regulations unravelling by September, a huge secondary wave of corona killing indiscriminately.
This middle ground is more like what Sweden has been doing — recommending people to work from home if possible, and asking those who are sick and over 70 to avoid social contacts. But most people still work, children go to school, most of society is still running. This is long-term sustainable. Shutting everything down is not.
We need to map a middle course that both saves most lives and avoids a catastrophic recession.Forbes
Bjorn Lomborg’s The Skeptical Environmentalist should be on everyone’s reading list.
As I stated in my previous post, the ChiCom-19 Hostage Crisis will kill more people than the Kung Flu itself. An economic collapse of this magnitude will elevate the suicide rate, it has already started. And suicide is not the only way “high rates of unemployment, poverty and homelessness” kill people and entire communties.
Add all of that to this:
Unfortunately, the study also shows that such a successful reduction in infection means few people have gained immunity. So if restrictions are lifted in September, a second wave of infections will once again overwhelm society and kill almost as many.Forbes
The much vaunted Imperial College study, says that the lockdown has to last for two years to work. That would kill more people than The Green New Deal as if it was managed by Rachel Carson.
Day 25 of America Held Hostage by ChiCom-19
Our pet T Rex, Teddy, has been social distancing since the end of the Cretaceous Period…
|% of population with||0.0583%||0.00095%|
|% wth, rounded||0.1%||0.00%|
|% without, rounded||99.9%||100.00%|
|Menodoza Line (.200)||22-Mar-2034||0.200|