Are lockdowns working?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

In recent weeks, behind the scenes, a battle royal has been raging among the epidemiologists advising governments. On one side are the activists, who argue that the Chinese virus is both more infectious and likely to prove more fatal than influenza, a deadly combination.

The activists’ strongest arguments are that in the early stages of a pandemic the daily growth rate is exponential; that in the absence of determined control measures a quarter of the global population would be infected by the end of May; and that continued exponential growth at the daily compound rate of almost 20% (entailing a doubling every 3.8 days) that prevailed until mid-March would rapidly overwhelm not only the hospitals but also the morgues, as has already happened in Spain and northern Italy.

On the other side are the passivists, who argue that after a few weeks in lockdown people will cease to observe the restrictions, introducing a second wave of infection. They hold that the best thing to do is let everyone become infected, let the old and the sick die, let the health services collapse, and leave the population to acquire what the lamentable Chief Officer of Health in London described at a press conference some weeks ago as “herd immunity”. The international outcry at this crass remark led the British government to backtrack at once.

I declare an interest. When it comes to preventing pandemics, I am an activist. The earlier one interferes with the exponential growth of a pathogen as infectious as the Chinese virus, the less the cost in lives and treasure. When HIV first emerged, I minuted the Cabinet to the effect that there should be universal testing, followed by immediate, compulsory and permanent isolation of carriers. No such action was taken, unfortunately. The result is that some 50 million have died of HIV, another 500,000 a year die of it, and the cost of treating those who are HIV-positive is heavy. Nearly all those deaths were preventable.

The Chinese virus is considerably more infectious and more fatal than HIV. Realizing this, the British Prime Minister, after weeks of listening to the internal wranglings between the activist and passivist public-health scientists, who were unable to agree among themselves, took a command decision to lock down the United Kingdom firmly, completely and for as long as might be necessary. He was persuaded by modeling from Imperial College, London, showing just how rapidly the National Health Service would be overwhelmed if things went on as the passivists wished. It was clear to the Prime Minister that patients suffering from diseases other than the Chinese virus would be placed at risk as the health system collapsed.

Mr Trump, who, like Mr Johnson (and me) was by instinct reluctant to subject the entire population to house arrest and to cause dislocation and damage to the economy, eventually came to a similar view. The situation is more complicated in the United States, where the individual states rather than the Federal administration are chiefly responsible for public-health measures. But in many states, as in many nations round the world, lockdowns of varying severity have been introduced. The activists have thus far prevailed.

But are the lockdowns working? A simple performance indicator, clear enough to show people whether or not the house arrest and related measures to which they are being subjected should be persisted in, is necessary. Remarkably, however, no such benchmark test is yet available. Therefore, I have been researching the statistics and propose the following test. The reference period for the test is the three weeks from January 22 to 14 March 2020, the date on which Mr Trump declared a national emergency. During the reference period, the mean compound daily growth rate in confirmed cases was 19.8%. Confirmed cases were thus doubling worldwide every 3.8 days.

To demonstrate the extent to which mitigation measures are or are not working, the benchmark test calculates the mean daily compound growth rate in confirmed cases of infection for successive seven-day periods ending on every day from March 14 to the present. Here is the test for the world excluding China and occupied Tibet (whose Communist regime cannot be trusted to tell the truth about case numbers, or about anything else much); for the United States, and for the two worst-affected European nations, Italy and Spain:

clip_image002

All four nations show an inexorable reduction in the daily rate of growth (though it remains dangerously high). The most impressive results are those for Italy, the first country in Europe to impose a strictish lockdown. During the reference period, the Italian growth rate was more than 30% per day, and cases were doubling every 2.6 days. But the lockdown is beginning to work. In the week to April 2, the daily growth rate in Italy was down to 5.2%. Even that is an alarming value: it would lead to a doubling of cases every two weeks. But the trend in the daily growth rate is firmly downward, and it will probably continue that way – provided, that is, that people can see, as they can from this test, that the lockdown is indeed working. In the world outside China, as more and more countries introduce lockdowns, the daily growth rate has declined from 19.8% in the reference period to 11% in the week to April 2. In the United States, the daily growth rate has declined a little, from 23.1% in the reference period to 16.2% in the week to April 1.

Here is the benchmark test for four more countries: three in Europe and one for South Korea. All four countries show declines in the daily growth rate of confirmed cases. But in South Korea the pandemic is almost under control:

clip_image004

The reason for the success in South Korea is that, following the SARS epidemic, the public health authorities fully understood the paramount importance of very widespread testing, immediate isolation of carriers and vigorous contact-tracing, including use of the cellphone network to identify where the carriers had been and whom they had met. The EU has picked up this idea, though the UK – in this as in much else – lags behind.

In particular, ever since the SARS epidemic the Korean public health authorities have maintained a very large testing capacity. They activated it as soon as they realized that the director of the World Health Organization, who has close links to the Peking regime and had as recently as January been parroting Chinese propaganda to the effect that the virus could not be transmitted from human to human, could not be relied upon.

Britain will be calling for an independent investigation of the WHO’s gross misconduct in this affair as soon as the pandemic is under control.

South Korea also adopted national lockdown. The public health authorities also recommend use of personal protective equipment (notably face-masks) not only by health professionals but also by the general public when outdoors. In this respect, too, the South Korean public health authorities disagree with the WHO, which has today announced it is reconsidering its notion that masks are valueless. The director of Korea’s public health authority bluntly says that the evidence that masks work is overwhelming.

Following his advice rather than that of the useless WHO, I wear a full-face motorcycle helmet and gauntlets whenever I leave our own grounds. Full-face protection is useful, according to the South Koreans, because the Chinese virus can enter the body not only through the nose and mouth but also through the mucous membranes of the eyes. Even wearing spectacles provides some measure of additional protection. As South Korea’s expert made clear in an excellent recent interview, it is necessary to obtain every advantage one can, because each additional barrier to transmission helps to bring the pandemic under control.

It is South Korea, then, that provides the clearest evidence that prompt, determined and vigorous control measures work, and work well.

Both Germany and France have done quite well in beginning to control the pandemic. Their mean daily growth rates were down from more than 30% in the benchmark period to around 10% in the week to April 2. The United Kingdom, however, had a daily growth rate of 16.4% in that week: a value scarcely better than the global 19.8% during the reference period from January 22 to March 14. The UK is the worst-performing of the 12 territories tracked here.

Germany and France both took advantage of the EU’s system for supplying both testing kits and personal protective equipment for health professionals. The UK, however, failed to respond to the EU’s email in time. Worse, British civil servants are so used to acting simply as passive agents for the Brussels tyranny-by-clerk that they were more or less completely unprepared for a pandemic, and the flapping-around is saddening to watch.

The former director of “Public Health England”, a grim but useless bureaucracy, was asked four times yesterday why it was that Germany had tested more than 500,000 of its citizens in all, while Britain had not yet managed to test 10,000 in any one day. He could not answer.

Here are benchmark tests for four more countries: Canada, Australia, Sweden and Ireland. Note that for Ireland the benchmark period is the two weeks to March 14 rather than three weeks, because Ireland began to report cases later than other countries.

clip_image006

From the point of view of the passivists, Sweden is the most interesting result. For its public health authorities are passivists: they have not introduced a lockdown. Yet their daily growth rate has fallen to 10%, among the lowest anywhere. Nevertheless, there is growing concern among health professionals in Sweden that the do-little option may yet prove fatal. It is possible, then, that Sweden will follow other European countries in imposing a strict lockdown in the near future. In the past ten days, other countries have seen a decline in the daily growth rate of confirmed cases, but Sweden, uniquely, has not.

Overall, the benchmark test show – at this early stage – that the lockdowns are beginning to work. The daily growth rate in confirmed cases is falling in those countries that have been locked down, and is tending to fall fastest in countries with the most determined control measures.

The next few weeks will be particularly interesting, because it is in the nature of exponential growth curves that, just as the growth is very rapid if control measures are not tough enough, the slowing of growth is just as rapid when the measures really begin to bite.

Over the next few weeks, the extent of the lockdowns’ success or failure will become evident. For this reason, I propose to update the benchmark tables daily until further notice.

It should be made clear that the benchmark test is not policy-prescriptive. It merely shows, in a dispassionate fashion based on the available data (warts and all) the extent to which control measures are or are not working, territory by territory and for the world excluding China.

Finally, the question arises whether the official data on which I have relied are trustworthy. The answer is that they are not, for the lack of widespread testing has entailed a very substantial understatement of the numbers infected.

Take the United States as an illustration. On average the Chinese virus takes five days to incubate and a further 16 days to kill those to whom it proves fatal. The least unreliable of the official statistics are those for deaths caused by the virus. On February 29 the United States reported its first death from the virus. The World Health Organization, which had originally estimated a death rate of 2% (as it had with SARS, whose death rate was actually 9.6%), now estimates it at 3.4%. In that event, 21 days previously, on February 8, there must have been 1 / 3.4%, or 29 cases. However, only five cases were reported. But if there were 29 cases on February 8, and if the growth rate for unreported cases is the same as for reported cases, the true number of cases by February 29 was not 5, as reported, but more than 2300.

Performing a similar calculation for each day until April 2 would lead us to conclude that there were not 26,500 cases of infection in total by that day, as reported by the U.S. administration, but 36 million. Curiously, if this were true it would not be all bad news. For the death rate would then be less than 0.02%, rather than the WHO’s 3.4%.

What is more, since only 6000 deaths have been reported in the U.S., the vast majority of those infected would have suffered symptoms little worse than those of the common cold and have recovered, in which event the “herd immunity” of which the British public health commissar spoke is being built up at a rapid rate.

If the death rate is only 1%, it is possible that 123 million people – more than one-third of the U.S. population – are already infected. If, however, it is 10%, as for SARS, then about 12 million U.S. citizens are infected.

What, then, is the true death rate? This early in the pandemic, the answer is that nobody really knows, even to within an order of magnitude. The standard method of obtaining a preliminary assessment of the death rate in the early stages of a pandemic is to consider the closed cases – those who, having been infected, have either recovered or died. Until April 2, 135,447 people outside China and occupied Tibet were reported as recovered from the infection, while 49,845 had died. Therefore, 185,252 had either recovered or died, and the deaths represented not 2% nor 3.4% but almost 27% of all these closed cases. I have not seen that figure reported anywhere, but that is the figure.

If the death rate is indeed 27%, then only 4.6 million U.S. citizens are infected, compared with the reported. However, the 27% figure should be regarded with some caution, since it takes no account of the under-reporting of cases, many of which will have been recoveries or asymptomatic. But it does suggest that of the currently-active 748,153 confirmed cases outside China more than 200,000 will be likely to die worldwide.

The Chinese virus, then, will be a biggish killer, either because far more are infected than are being reported or because the death rate is higher than the WHO imagines, or both. At this stage, we do not know: but no responsible government, seeing figures such as these, would consider itself as acting responsibly if it were to fail to ensure that energetic control measures were put in place.

In all this mishmash of competing statistics, the one certainty is the daily mean rate at which reported cases have been increasing. That is why I have chosen this measure as the basis for the benchmark test.

My hypothesis is that, thanks to the decisive measures taken by most governments, the daily growth rate of total confirmed cases will continue to fall, and that about 1-2 weeks from now the fall will become quite rapid, perhaps buying enough time for health services to increase their capacity to handle intensive-care patients on ventilators, and to perform antigen tests for the presence of the virus and, no less importantly, antibody tests to demonstrate that those who have recovered are immune.

If the daily growth rates do not fall very quickly to South Korean values, then the capacity of health services will be overwhelmed. As of yesterday, the hospital ship sent by President Trump to New York had just three patients on board. Expect the ship to be filled to capacity within days.

Keep safe. And come back here daily for the updated benchmark test.

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Vuk
April 4, 2020 2:16 am

Saturday’s UK Covid-19 update here
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/UK-COVID-19.htm

Vuk
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 2:32 am

In China normal mortality is 7/1,000 annually, which calculates to well over 20,000/day. It doesn’t appear credible that the China’s Covid-19 mortality is only 3,000+ over the period of couple of months, when at the same period up to or even more than a million other deaths are recorded. It is even more ridiculous when the Italian or Spanish mortality of 10,000+ is compared to the Chinese, considering that the China’s population is almost some 30 times greater.

niceguy
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 2:45 am

And China is more polluted.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 3:09 am

China lies.

Derg
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 3:29 am

When XI wiped out political rivals a few years ago (assuming that was true) I wonder if those people were reported dead or missing

🙁

Trusting China is like trust Russia

Robertvd
Reply to  Derg
April 4, 2020 7:12 am

is like trust Pelosi & Co is like trust CNN.

Robertvd
Reply to  Derg
April 4, 2020 7:16 am

is like trust The Federal Reserve UN WHO

john
Reply to  Robertvd
April 4, 2020 10:02 am

Is like trust con- gress

Stimulus IV: Last Chance for the Green New Deal?

https://www.masterresource.org/krebs-mark/stimulus-iv-green-new-deal/

Don’t forget that just before the World was upended by coronavirus, we had another deep-decarbonization electrification bill: the 555-page American Energy Innovation Act (AEIA).

Since “clean energy” unfairly discriminates against the leading (and clean) alternatives to electricity, this is contrary to the best interests of free markets and providing affordable energy for consumers.

Yes; another “stimulus” bill is possible and perhaps even likely. Expect Nancy Pelosi’s “Green New Deal” to be part of this effort given that the Senate and the President said NO to subsidies for solar panels and wind turbines in the CARES Act.

Numerous special interests didn’t get their piece of the pie and were promised another shot in order to move the CARES Act out of the Senate. It’s all politics, not consumer economics, for the pack of lobbyists in an election year, trading campaign contributions for legislative favors.

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  Robertvd
April 4, 2020 2:08 pm

In the meantime the Canadian Parliament increased its salaries for Members on 1 April, and the carbon tax was increased by 50%.

MarieC
Reply to  Derg
April 5, 2020 6:21 am

In fact it is almost as bad as trusting, it can’t happen here America.

John Dowser
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 5:50 am

You are confusing the vast country of China with Wuhan city. Then comparing this to Northern regions of Italy and leaving out the fact Wuhan and other cities in China were under strict lock-d0wn way and way fast than Italy responded after the first hundred infected.

Those mortality figures will not be the national disaster but mostly personal ones. The consequences for economy are the main problem and will make this comparison games look childish soon.

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  John Dowser
April 4, 2020 9:16 am

Question for JD,
Did China’s strict lock-down occur before or after CV-19 was already spread overseas? Wouldn’t CV-19 be spread inside China at the same time it was moving around the globe? Did the CCP lock down national travel while allowing international travel?

As of noon CT yesterday, reported CV-19 fatalities were:
EU – 35,419
US – 6,099
UK – 3,605
China – 3,322

A C Osborn
Reply to  John Dowser
April 4, 2020 10:45 am

JD is not correct.
The first case of COVID in Wuhan was back in November or December and the lockdown didn’t start until January 22nd. Before which 5 million people left Wuhan when it was announced.
At no time did China prevent them from leaving China.
But they are now intercepting every single one going back.

Observer
Reply to  Vuk
April 5, 2020 5:04 pm

“The Chinese virus is considerably more infectious and more fatal than HIV.”

Erm… no. It’s more infectious, certainly, but until modern anti-retrovirals were developed, HIV eventually killed practically everyone who had it.

COVID-19? Most people are asymptomatic.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 5:01 am

@ Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

When HIV first emerged, I minuted the Cabinet to the effect that there should be universal testing, followed by immediate, compulsory and permanent isolation of carriers. No such action was taken, unfortunately. The result is that some 50 million have died of HIV, another 500,000 a year die of it, and the cost of treating those who are HIV-positive is heavy. Nearly all those deaths were preventable.

Does anyone else, other than me, … remember, or admit that they remember, ….. the uproar, and screaming, and badmouthing, and claims of violence against Fidel Castro for implanting this, to wit:

Cuba’s response to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic has been unique. Mass testing for HIV antibodies, for the most part compulsory, and a mandatory relative quarantine of all persons testing positive is official policy
https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.81.5.563

Earthling2
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
April 4, 2020 7:00 am

Medically speaking, Cuba hit way above its weight when it came to health, including the training of so many medical professionals and doctors. And they did and do still export some of their expertise including work on vaccines for cancers. It is just too bad that they had a totalitarian regime that made for the Dr. making the same pay as a taxi driver…maybe less, since taxi drivers got to keep their tips.

Such is is the curse of socialist Marxism. Cuba could have been so much more had it not been for the corrupt totalitarian control and bungling of much of the economy and foreign affairs. But they did do health remarkably well including basic education, while they destroyed their economy with worthless ideologies. Such is the nature of getting the basic ideology wrong, as we see across much of the good Earth.

Reply to  Earthling2
April 4, 2020 7:08 am

re: ” But they did do health remarkably well”

Not buying this part: Don’t trust China’s health/epidemic stats – why would you ever trust Fidel’s – I mean Cuba’s stats?

KcTaz
Reply to  _Jim
April 4, 2020 12:31 pm

Jim, I agree.
Cuba’s real healthcare system is pathetic. They have a few places which are for the high priests and their families in the Communist regime and that is what they show to foreigners and fools like Michael Moore. The healthcare for the masses is quite poor and antiquated.
Castro sends his doctors all over the world for WHO into highly infectious areas. He pockets big bucks for them from WHO and pays them 5 bucks a day for their services abroad.
I’ve never heard of a vaccine for cancer and have no idea what Earthling is talking about. It sounds like he drank the Communist propaganda Kool-aid.
On the bright side, doctors in the US think they could have saved Chavez. The best of Cuban healthcare killed him. Always a silver lining.
As for HIV, it’s always easy to do something when you run a totalitarian regime and people are forced to obey and none dare complain about what is done to them. The free world rungs a tad differently.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  _Jim
April 5, 2020 4:57 am

KcTaz – April 4, 2020 at 12:31 pm

He pockets big bucks for them from WHO and pays them 5 bucks a day for their services abroad.

KcTaz, you are talking silly, …. like as if you are afflicted with “Trump Derangement Syndrome”.

If Castro was mistreating those Doctors even when they were practicing in another county, why didn’t that all flee to the US where they could have made million$, ….. huh, …. huh?

You should be careful of what “brand” of Kool Aide you drink.

Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
April 5, 2020 8:43 am

re: “If Castro was mistreating those Doctors even when they were practicing in another county, why didn’t that all flee to the US”

Boat people; Escape from Cuber (Cuba) edition.

Title: “What Is It Like To Escape Cuba By Raft?”
It begins: There are over 1.1 million Cuban immigrants in the United States, and even more than other immigrant groups, they have clustered, with over two-thirds living in greater Miami. What unites this group is not dislike of their home country, but the need to leave the Castro brothers’ Communist regime. Without the money or legal ability to fly out, however, many have risked their lives by floating on man-made rafts to Florida, Mexico and elsewhere. Thousands of these raft people—or “balseros”—are traversing the streets of Miami, carrying a memory that is seldom-discussed in Cuban culture. But I recently lived there, and found one balsero willing to tell his story.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottbeyer/2016/03/01/what-is-it-like-to-escape-cuba-by-raft/#1a1e6958a0e2

Earthling2
Reply to  _Jim
April 5, 2020 12:49 pm

KcTaz April 4, 2020 at 12:31 pm

I am certainly not a fan of communist China or their totalitarian regime. But for a third world impoverished nation, which much of it is their own fault, the two things that they have done more of than most in their same economic capacity is basic education and medical. I most certainly haven’t drunk of any communist Kool-aid as you suggest, for making a basic comment that Cuba has done more than other nations regarding health and training doctors. That doesn’t mean I support communist Cuba, but their basic education level surpasses America at the K-12 level.

Wile technically not a true vaccine that prevents lung cancer, the following link shows what work they are doing with various cancer research, which is very promising. It works like a vaccine for treatment of lung cancer, but it doesn’t prevent lung cancer from forming. They are collaborating with various American organizations. The following fat check by snopes.com is enlightening to a degree.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cuba-cancer-vaccine/

Reply to  Earthling2
April 5, 2020 4:10 pm

re: ” I most certainly haven’t drunk of any communist Kool-aid as you suggest, for making a basic comment that Cuba has done more than other nations regarding health and training doctors. ”

Still no sale. *I* could probably qualify as a doctor in Cuber (Cuba), and I am assuredly not a doc, as could others here on this forum …

Earthling2
Reply to  _Jim
April 5, 2020 9:46 pm

Comparing Cuba’s GDP to other countries of similar GDP, they have done a lot more than any other in their GDP class with what little $$ resources they do have. Same for basic education, where everyone at least got a basic education, which as it stands presently is higher educated than the average American. Of course that isn’t saying a lot anymore considering the state of of education here.

It isn’t any secret that Cuba is known for its concentration on medical health training, and export of Drs to various parts of the world where they try and influence their form of socialism/Marxism and earn foreign currency while their folk at home have to bring their own sheets and light bulbs to the hospital. I am not advocating for Cuba other than they have a lot of potential there if they could get the right political ideology and style of government. They are 39th on the list of life longevity at 78.6 years old…USA is 38th at 78.9 years. So while their GDP is on par with the majority of really poor countries that have a 55 year life expectancy as per GDP, they are right behind the USA in life expectancy. They must be doing something different than the typical 3rd world country.

But I do appreciate your point of view, which had me digging a little more for information. I came across this link that supports your position, but also mine, and also a bit of Sam’s. A short interesting read on an American who trained as a Dr. in Cuba.
And below the first link, is one that is more geared to your point go view, which I will fully admit that healthcare for the masses in Cuba is wanting, because of their political system and subsequent GDP having not much high tech med equipment. I learned more today than I knew yesterday. That’s what I like about this site, where we can all exchange ideas and learn something new.

http://theconversation.com/is-the-cuban-healthcare-system-really-as-great-as-people-claim-69526

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/think-the-cuban-healthcare-system-is-ideal-no-cigar-not-even-close

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  _Jim
April 6, 2020 4:13 am

@ _Jim, Earthling2 and KcTaz …..

Apparently you all don’t realize that Cuba was/is the only country in the world that the United States government did their damnest to protect the military dictatorship of Cuban President Fulgencio Batista against the rebellion led by Fidel Castro.

The US not only didn’t supply aid or armament to the Cuban revolutionaries, they fronted the Bay of Pigs Invasion and tried to kill Castro several times after he took control. “DUH”, it was the millionaire crime bosses and sugar plantation owners that escaped to Florida before Castro took control that was the “political” force that got the embargo put on Cuba and insured it stay all those years. Tourist operators in the US didn’t want Cuban travel restrictions done away with.

Just think what the Cuban people would be enjoying today, iffen the US had helped them like they did the Iraqi’s, etc., etc.,

But no, the politicians took the bribes ….. I mean election donations, …… from the millionaire Cuban refugees living in Florida because they want control of their sugar plantation again and the slave labor to operate them.

“HA”, they can produce sugar in Cuba @ $0.02/pound ….. and sell it in the US for $2.00/pound.

Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
April 6, 2020 8:29 am

re: “The US not only didn’t supply aid or armament to the Cuban revolutionaries, ”

You have a most warped perspective and trouble seeing reality, I think. No amount of argument is possible to change your mind, as you are immune to logic, resistant to facts, and are wedded/joined at the hip with some really idealistic notions that warp your ‘whirled’ view.

I still point to the “elections” that Castro promised, but never, ever ‘held’. Communists, it seems, lie. That’s the takeaway for a rational man.

Reply to  _Jim
April 6, 2020 12:20 pm

Agreed. Castro was a murderer and a thug.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  _Jim
April 6, 2020 1:11 pm

_Jim – April 6, 2020 at 8:29 am

You have a most warped perspective and trouble seeing reality, I think. No amount of argument is possible to change your mind, as you are immune to logic, resistant to facts,

Shur nuff, …. Jim, ……typical reaction from a lefty liberal partisan Democrat, …… you attack the messenger instead of the message. You all are so totally afflicted with “Republican Derangement Syndrome” that you actually believe that the more you “criticize” and ”badmouth” your opponent, ….. the smarter you are and the more arguments you win.

Jim, it is obvious that you hate/hated Castro simply because your Democrat ‘handlers’ have always told you that is what you should be doing, ….. to support another Batista and all Miami Cubans and fight to strip the Castro brothers of their political power.

“DUH”, Batista was far worse for the Cuban people that Castro could ever have hoped to have been.

To wit, read the reality of why the Cuban Revolution was launched ….. and why the Democrats tried to kill Castro:

n March 1952, Cuban military general Fulgencio Batista seized power in a military coup, with the elected President Carlos Prío Socarrás fleeing to Mexico. Declaring himself president, Batista cancelled the planned presidential elections, describing his new system as “disciplined democracy”;

Castro, like many others, considered it a one-man dictatorship. Batista developed ties with the United States, severing diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union, suppressing trade unions and persecuting Cuban socialist groups.

Intent on opposing Batista’s administration, Castro brought several legal cases against them, arguing that Batista had committed sufficient criminal acts to warrant imprisonment and accusing various ministers of breaching labor laws. His lawsuits coming to nothing, Castro began thinking of alternate ways to oust the new government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fidel_Castro_in_the_Cuban_Revolution

Jim, iffen you wait till you are too old, ……. you can’t learn new things

Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
April 7, 2020 11:28 am

Repeat, SCC (IOW, you are posting ‘repeat’ material.)

I think your “argument” is with human nature, because what determines/drives human nature (and b/c of its fall from grace in the Garden Of Eden incident) is what determines human action and events in this corporeal ‘stream’, but, you don’t realize that, rather, you want every ‘jot and tittle’ (transgression) addressed on this earthly plane. Won’t work and will NEVER happen; You tilt against windmills. Rather, repent, say your prayers and the Holy Rosary, asking for guidance and wisdom from the Holy Spirit.

That is all. Out.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  _Jim
April 7, 2020 3:59 am

Jim – April 6, 2020 at 8:29 am

You have a most warped perspective and trouble seeing reality, I think. No amount of argument is possible to change your mind, as you are immune to logic, resistant to facts,

Shur nuff, …. Jim, ……typical reaction from a liberal partisan Democrat, …… you attack the messenger instead of the message

Jim, it is obvious that you support the Cuban embargo that has kept the Cuban people poor and destitute for the past 50 years ….. just to punish one (1) man, Fidel Castro.

Did you support giving billion$ to the Palestinians even though Arafat kept most and wasted the rest on guns n’ ammo for killing Israelis?

“DUH”, Batista was far worse for the Cuban people that Castro could ever have hoped to have been.

To wit, read the reality of why the Cuban Revolution was launched ….. and why the Democrats tried to kill Castro:

n March 1952, Cuban military general Fulgencio Batista seized power in a military coup, with the elected President Carlos Prío Socarrás fleeing to Mexico. Declaring himself president, Batista cancelled the planned presidential elections, describing his new system as “disciplined democracy”;

Castro, like many others, considered it a one-man dictatorship. Batista developed ties with the United States, severing diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union, suppressing trade unions and persecuting Cuban socialist groups.

Intent on opposing Batista’s administration, Castro brought several legal cases against them, arguing that Batista had committed sufficient criminal acts to warrant imprisonment and accusing various ministers of breaching labor laws. His lawsuits coming to nothing, Castro began thinking of alternate ways to oust the new government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fidel_Castro_in_the_Cuban_Revolution

Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
April 7, 2020 7:00 am

re: “typical reaction from a liberal partisan Democrat, …… you attack the messenger instead of the message”

Idiot. It’s your communist ideology that stinks, not you. Is that your def of an ad hom – calling out one’s ideology? You may be more twisted than you know, at that rate.

I ask again, why did Castro suspend calling ELECTIONS (effectively) forever? Didn’t he “educate” the “Cuban people” sufficiently after 10, 20, 30 years or more (of indoctrination) after which he could have ‘held’ elections?

re: “To wit, read the reality of why the Cuban Revolution was launched ”

Nuts. You choose the worse ‘dictator’ of the two. With Batista at least he wasn’t crazy like el loco Fidel.

Samuel C Cogar, Fidel apologist extraordinaire …

Merrick
Reply to  Earthling2
April 4, 2020 12:33 pm

Yes. And Fidel did such an amazing job with his health care system that when he got seriously ill for the first time he went straight to consultations with medical professionals in Madrid when his own surgical recovery turned south.

john harmsworth
Reply to  Earthling2
April 4, 2020 1:22 pm

If Cuba had not been subsidized by the USSR with billions of dollars it would have become another Haiti in very short order.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  john harmsworth
April 5, 2020 7:50 am

john harmsworth – April 4, 2020 at 1:22 pm

If Cuba had not been subsidized by the USSR with billions of dollars it would have become another Haiti in very short order.

Place the blame …. where blame is due.

The United States currently imposes a commercial, economic, and financial embargo against Cuba.

The United States first imposed an embargo on the sale of arms to Cuba on March 14, 1958, during the Fulgencio Batista regime.

Again on October 19, 1960 the U.S. placed an embargo on exports to Cuba except for food and medicine after Cuba nationalized American-owned Cuban oil refineries without compensation.

On February 7, 1962 the embargo was extended to include almost all exports ….. and a travel ban was imposed on U.S. citizens visiting Cuba.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo_against_Cuba

SadButMadLad
Reply to  Earthling2
April 4, 2020 1:36 pm

Germany hit way above its weight when it came to autobahns. And their train system was very punctual too. It’s just too bad that they had a totalitarian regime in the 1940s.

MarkW
Reply to  Earthling2
April 4, 2020 4:20 pm

Back when Fidel was still breathing, I remember reading about how patients had to bring their own linens when going to the hospital.
Since the rest of the country has gone down hill since then, I can only imagine that health care has dropped as well.

The claim that Cuba did health care well is just more of their propaganda.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Earthling2
April 5, 2020 4:43 am

Earthling2 – April 4, 2020 at 7:00 am

Cuba could have been so much more had it not been for the corrupt totalitarian control and bungling …..

”DUH”, …… had it not been for the US government demanding that Fidel do what they told him to do.

Castro took control of Cuba in December 1958, by deposing American ally and dictator General Fulgencio Batista. In Batista’s Cuna there were only three (3) classes of people, ….. the very, very rich, …. the very, very poor ,,,,, and the rich tourists from the US. American politicians and gangsters loved to vacation in Cuba because of gambling and prostitution.

American politicians hated Fidel Castro because he wouldn‘t “play ball” by their rules ,,,,, and thus the reason the US instigated the Bay of Pigs invasion on the south coast of Cuba on April 17, 1961 to depose Fidel. …… And people wonder why Castro hated the US.

“DUH”, …… Castro played baseball with the Washington Senators baseball team but he wouldn’t play ball the DC Senators, etc.

Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
April 5, 2020 10:30 am

re: “Castro took control of Cuba in December 1958, by deposing American ally and dictator General Fulgencio Batista. ”

AND IMMEDIATELY Fidel practiced what he “preached” against. Funny how that works. How many times did he promise to hold elections? I think the ppl eventually lost count and gave up, rather, they ‘gave in’ to the new “strongman”, el loco Fidel. Power, when you ‘secure’ it, goes to one’s head … or was it Fidel’s intention all along? Either way, the outcome was the same: A people enslaved to an egotistical maniac. What was their to like? Unless, you like dictators, and we had (have?) no shortage of DC pols on the dem side who sympathize with the Castro bros …

“Fair play for Cuba” SCC? Castro in the way, and ‘first in line’ to receive any monies ‘flowing’ into the country … dictators first.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
April 6, 2020 4:34 am

@ Jim, …… Castro had to play “hardball”, …… because there were a million Cubans in Florida …… plus all the US politicians, including Presidents, that wanted Castro’s arse deposed, …. throwed under a bus, …….. so that the partying, boozing, gambling and prostitution could return to normal.

Havana was a “wide open playground” for US gamblers, politicians and Agency personnel.

Richard W Ferris
Reply to  Earthling2
April 7, 2020 8:06 pm

The amazing thing is that it takes us more than 9 years to train a doctor, the Cubans do it in 9 months. See how much better socialism is.

Kenji
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
April 4, 2020 7:10 am

And when did the bath houses get shut down, and a stop put to random, anonymous, unprotected sex? Oh yeahhh … never.

Just as our culture prefers a diet “pill” to actual dieting … so too, the gay community has preferred an HIV drug cocktail .. to lifestyle changes.

Observer
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
April 5, 2020 5:01 pm

“When HIV first emerged, I minuted the Cabinet to the effect that there should be universal testing, followed by immediate, compulsory and permanent isolation of carriers. No such action was taken, unfortunately. The result is that some 50 million have died of HIV, another 500,000 a year die of it, and the cost of treating those who are HIV-positive is heavy. Nearly all those deaths were preventable.”

Erm, what? 50 million have died of HIV in the UK? Or does the Viscount think the UK government still controls most of Africa?

Vuk
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 6:31 am

There is a glimmer of hope in the just (14.00 BST) announced UK death count, which is fractionally bellow the tread line.

tonyb
Editor
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 9:51 am

vuk

We fortunately remain well below the average 17000 annual deaths for flu which peaked at some 40000 in 2014. This from gov stats;

“Between December 2014 and March 2015 there were 44,000 excess winter deaths, 2.5 times higher than the record low of the previous winter, and the highest number since the winter of 1999/2000 when flu levels were very high.

Daily deaths peaked on 1 January 2015, 35% higher than the five-year average

Deaths peaked on 1 January last winter when daily deaths were 35% higher than the five-year average. The first part of 2015 (5 to 11 January) also saw weekly deaths at 15,000, the highest number in any given week since the last two weeks of December 1999 and first two weeks of January 2000, when flu levels were very high.

Daily deaths were above the five-year average on 304 out of 365 days in 2014/15. There were only two days during the winter period where daily deaths fell below the five year average, and on both occasions, the difference was less than fifteen deaths.”

tonyb

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  tonyb
April 4, 2020 10:35 am

In response to tonyb, the problem with coronavirus, compared with flu, is that coronavirus is both more infectious and more fatal than flu, which is why the daily case growth rate has been so high. if that growth rate were to continue at anything like its present level, within weeks it would be apparent to all that the previous records for excess deaths thanks to flu will be handsomely overtaken. That is why prompt action should have been taken to test, contact-trace, test again and isolate; and, once that action had not been taken in time, it was necessary – albeit with understandable reluctance, and unfortunately far too late – to introduce lockdowns.

KcTaz
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 12:43 pm

Monckton of Brenchley,

Sir, thank you for responding to the comments. It is much appreciated.
With great respect I wanted to ask you about your statement that So. Korea shut down. Per this, which is an excellent video of an interview with So. Korea’s Head of Infection Control, So. Korea did not lock down. It did testing and contact tracing and isolation of those people with COVID and people who were exposed to those with it. They did not and still have not locked down their general population. In fact, the good Doctor sounds like he would have preferred a lock down and rather lamented that the bars have remained open and their young flock to them. However, he did not seem to think it was possible to lock down the country.
You can hear him yourself here.
If it is possible for you, I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on this as it seems to contradict what you think So. Korea has done.

You Need To Listen To This Leading COVID-19 Expert From South Korea | ASIAN BOSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&feature=youtu.be

•Mar 27, 2020

Tonyb
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 2:19 pm

Christopher

It appears that testing is not that reliable Even in Germany

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/corona-challenge-germany-reaching-the-upper-limit-of-testing-capacity-a-4d75e7bd-dd0e-41e3-9f09-eb4364c43f2e

It also appears that in Germany you are only counted as a cv death if you actually die BECAUSE of cv not merely WITH it as happens in the uK

The latest WHO guidelines are those the UK follows but it means that those who died With Cv don’t properly represent the majority who in reality died of something else.

In Italy the Italian health authorities estimate only some 12% of those who died WITH cv actually died BECaUSE of it.

That is not just a fine distinction but means cv deaths are hugely overestimated.

Cv is highly infectious but generally mild in its effect except for a small proportion of the population . Of course proper precautions need to be taken with testing and quarantine but does not require the draconian over reaction we have seen

Tonyb

John Broadbent
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 2:25 pm

Lord Monckton,
I have raised this question from the beginning and often.
I do not see the COVID-19 as ‘more infectious’ . When you relate positives to tests performed with the only data reporting both parameters that I have and trust ( https://depts.washington.edu/labmed/covid19/ ). The Wuhan Virus appears to have been largely prevalent at the same rate for the entire series.

As far as mortality, people are largely dying in about the same proportion by age as usual, so why is the virus ‘more fatal than flu’.

And, as raised on ‘Crowd Source the Truth’ along with aliens, comets and flights without tail numbers was that John Hopkins was reporting few deaths or infections in places like Vietnam. The point made was that we should either be sending medical teams to clear up the dead and dying or to research their response. A response clearly working magnificently!

gbaikie
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 7:34 pm

“Lord Monckton,
I have raised this question from the beginning and often.
I do not see the COVID-19 as ‘more infectious’ .”

It’s thought COVID-19 spreads by breathing.
A german study indicates in starts in throat, and may spread to lungs, and lungs may recover, and “ends” where started in the throat.
And it’s not in stool sample of the infected and not in the blood {and antibodies will of course be in the blood- or testing blood, then you testing for antibodies to it.

And this problem will not having general public not wearing masks, it spreads even if a person is not coughing. All you need is a lot people breathing in a confined space.
Trains, planes, and subways and bars and filled restaurants are potential heavy breeding grounds for it. As would be a packed stadium.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 5, 2020 3:57 am

Mr Baikie says he does not see the Chinese virus as more infectious than flu. He provides no analysis, however. What can be said is that at present the daily deaths from the virus aretwice that for flu, and the death rates are likely to increase for at least another two or three weeks even in those countries with reasonably effective lockdowns.

gbaikie
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 5, 2020 4:55 am

“Monckton of Brenchley April 5, 2020 at 3:57 am
Mr Baikie says he does not see the Chinese virus as more infectious than flu. He provides no analysis, however.”

I did not provide analysis, true.
I don’t think I said Chinese virus is not more infectious than flu.

John Broadbent said:
“Lord Monckton,
I have raised this question from the beginning and often.
I do not see the COVID-19 as ‘more infectious’

And John Broadbent is seems unaware of the possibility [or near certainty] that fewer people could have immunity to Chinese flu {because it’s apparently a new virus}.

Plus I said:
“It’s thought COVID-19 spreads by breathing.”

Which by itself, should indicate it’s fast spreader- particularly if not much immunity to it.

COVID-19 will also spread from coughing on someone, or shaking their hands, but will spread if merely breathing or speaking in their general direction, and can spread before the person who is breathing or speaking has any symptoms of having a cold or flu.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  tonyb
April 4, 2020 11:54 am

Look at Willis’s graph available at WUWT banner. Most every western country is following the UK curve except France and US which are simply 10 days offset due to government failure to accept their own stats. Already these countries have passed a death toll that is triple the monthly influenza death toll. It’s too early to tell but all seem destined to level off at 20 or 30 times the monthly influenza death toll. Which is 2 or 3% of ALL deaths. What does this mean ? If 2 or 3% of all deaths occurred at football stadiums, it probably wouldn’t stop anyone from going to football games….if 2 or 3% of deaths were the result of airplane crashes, nobody would get on an airplane….it depends on your perspective….

LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 10:22 am

What are we accomplishing here?

If we’re attempting to ‘flatten the curve’ to prevent swamping the hospitals, that’s not exactly worked… hospitals are getting swamped. My own hospital emailed me, begging for any N95 masks I might have. We’ve slightly wiggled the curve, that’s it. We’ve been locked down for weeks, and that curve has barely moved. No ‘flattening’ is in evidence.

If we’re attempting to save lives, that’ll never work. Those who’d die from the virus are still going to die, just x days later than they would have done.

Meanwhile, we’re creating a financial firestorm the likes of which all of humanity has never experienced… how many people are going to die because of that? No way to tell, but by all indications, it’s going to be bad.

We should have told the elderly and immune-compromised to shelter-in-place until this virus passes or we have a viable vaccine (with financial aid to get them through if they needed it), while telling the young and the healthy to continue on with their lives while suggesting they wear gloves and masks to slow the spread.

We further should have told people to pre-dose with quinine and zinc. We’ve known since 2005 that, as the National Institutes of Health state, chloroquine (and hydroxychloroquine, and quinine, given that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are synthetic derivatives of quinine) “is a potent inhibitor of SARS”… and given that SARS attaches to the same sialic acid moeities as Covid19 does, those compounds have the same effect against Covid19 (and MERS), because quinine (chloroquine / hydroxychloroquine) interferes with sialic acid biosynthesis, making it more difficult for the virus to attach to cells.

No mandatory lockdown, no loss of freedoms, no economic chaos, we gain herd immunity much quicker, we have the time to develop a vaccine for those who are elderly or immune-compromised… that’s common sense, which apparently isn’t so common anymore.

Instead, we have idiotic democrat governors banning the use of chloroquine for off-label use (other drugs are used off-label all the time… why chloroquine, why now?) and hiding ventilators because ‘orange man bad’. We have doctors prescribing Flo-nase (which does nothing) and Ibuprofen (which causes further problems). We’re putting people on ventilators with little hope of them ever coming off them. We’re damaging people and destroying livelihoods.

And what happens when we un-lock? We’ve had billions of healthy people not exposed, so they’ve not gained herd immunity… we’re going to have a resurgence of the infectivity rate. What then? Do we lock down again and wreak more financial havoc and cause more death because our hospitals are already swamped and a resurgence will only make things worse? Where does this end?

It ends when we get herd immunity. Any delays of attaining that just does damage. Nanny-state ninnies are causing more damage, they are not helping.

I pre-dosed, I was exposed (likely multiple times, but one time for sure (a guy I work alongside had it and coughed in my vicinity all day (thinking it was just a cold) before going out sick, later learning it was Covid19)), and all I got was a slight tickle in my throat, a bit of tiredness, and that was it. It was gone the next day. I never wore a mask, I never wore gloves, I never followed any of the usually-suggested precautions. Where I work, I’m exposed to international travelers, and I’m touching biometric devices that everyone touches.

Pre-dosing with 83 mg / day of quinine would, by my calculations, decrease infectivity by an average of ~50%… that would flatten the curve nearly completely, reducing R0 to ~1.1, while drastically increasing herd immunity without swamping the hospitals (because healthy people don’t have to deal with a burgeoning infection while their bodies clear the virus, they can clear it quickly and with few adverse effects).

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/27/friday-funny-or-not-so-funny/#comment-2950329

We can’t run from this thing, we can’t hide from it… the only way is through.

Vuk
Reply to  LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
April 4, 2020 10:48 am

An old Chinese ‘bat lady’ from Wuhan wet market apparently (if you do believe it) achieved what Karl Marks, Vladimir Ilich, Joseph Vissarionovich, and Mao tse Tung could have not even dreamed off, i.e. putting capitalist economy on its knees in one single swoop. There are heaps of skeletons rattling with grotesque laughter in some kind of communist heaven. /sarc

LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 11:48 am

I heard (and this is only an unconfirmed rumor) that the bats came from research on-going at the Wuhan biolab. Apparently a worker there collected the dead bats and sold them to the wet market as a way of making a bit of extra scratch, thinking the virus they’d been infected with wouldn’t cross over to humans, and would be killed during cooking anyway.

As to why the biolab was studying it… I can only guess that bats are important to agriculture (they eat bugs which eat crops), and the biolab was attempting to induce immunity to the virus within the bat population.

That would be in keeping with Hanlon’s Razor, and would, in my own thinking, be a much more forgivable error than the biolab attempting to create bioweapons.

KcTaz
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 1:04 pm

Vuk, I think the jury is still out on that. The MSM seems to be all in on the wet market theory and, while that is entirely plausible, there seems to be much conflicting information. Early on, reports said the first of the infected had not been to that market.
Then, there is this and one wonders how many of the folks who published this are still alive or, at least, roaming free.

I know it’s CNN but even a stopped clock… Plus, this was written a bit before our media decided to advance Chinese propaganda instead of seek the truth. Who knows? It’s China.

Evidence is mounting that coronavirus originated in a Wuhan lab. A Chinese university is the latest to make such claims.
February 17, 2020
https://www.ccn.com/bombshell-chinese-study-fuels-conspiracy-coronavirus-bioweapon/

A bombshell study by the South China University of Technology reveals coronavirus could have started in a lab just 300 yards away from the Wuhan seafood market.
The study seems believable when you consider the unusual characteristics of coronavirus.
The Chinese government’s authoritarian practices are fanning the bioweapon-conspiracy flames…
* The study seems believable when you consider the unusual characteristics of coronavirus.
* The Chinese government’s authoritarian practices are fanning the bioweapon-conspiracy flames.

Reply to  KcTaz
April 4, 2020 1:20 pm

re: “I think the jury is still out on that. The MSM seems to be all in on the wet market theory …”

‘Wet’ market == blood (live animals slaughtered on-the-spot while-u-wait) market.

As in “wet work” in the military means … blood is eventually ‘spilled’.

MarkW
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 4:26 pm

That would be the bat virus that is commonly found in wild bats?

BTW, where did you hear this rumor? At the local pub?

LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
Reply to  Vuk
April 5, 2020 11:06 pm

I heard it from friends of my Chinese wife, who live near Wuhan.

Bats are rife with viruses. They are a vector for more than 60 human-infectious viruses.

It was most likely the Chinese horseshoe bat, which is known to carry a virus closely related to Covid19. SARS, MERS, Marburg, Nipah, Hendra were bat viruses, too. They can also carry Ebola without getting sick. And rabies, but they are affected by that.

The biolab may have been attempting to induce an immune system response to the virus in the bats to ‘clean up’ the virus problem in bats. Apparently, flying is so physically demanding that their muscle cells break down, leaving bits of DNA floating around in their body most of the time… in us that’d trigger an inflammatory response and kick our immune systems into high gear. In bats, it doesn’t do that. So they never really clean up any viruses, they just live with them.

Direct from the Wuhan lab:
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/11/3/210

DMacKenzie
Reply to  LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
April 4, 2020 11:59 am

Look at Willis’s graph available at WUWT banner. Most every western country is following the UK curve except France and US which are simply 10 days offset due to government failure to accept their own stats. Already these countries have passed a death toll that is triple the monthly influenza death toll. It’s too early to tell but all seem destined to level off at 20 or 30 times the monthly influenza death toll. Which is 2 or 3% of ALL deaths. What does this mean ? If 2 or 3% of all deaths occurred at football stadiums, it probably wouldn’t stop anyone from going to football games….if 2 or 3% of deaths were the result of airplane crashes, nobody would get on an airplane….it depends on your perspective….

Greg
Reply to  DMacKenzie
April 4, 2020 1:26 pm

France has not leveled off due to exponential increase in testing ( which is good in itself ) inflating the figures. Today their death rate jumped from about 500 per day for the last 5 days to 2000 !! Whatever is going that is not a medical reality.

I suspect they have just decided to include deaths in care homes which were not previously included with the hospital deaths. More may become clear in the next couple of days.

France has been in shutdown for nearly three weeks now , I’m not sure what you point is about France. Clearly this can not be compared to USA which is at a much ealier point in the epidemic.

Alan Tomalty (@ATomalty)
Reply to  LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
April 4, 2020 12:16 pm

I agree. I noticed that the infection rate had gone down or leveled off in some countries before they locked down. It is only a partial lockdown anyway and people still have to go buy food in supermarkets where the chance of catching the virus is higher than all the other retail places that were forced to close. Even if only 1 person is left who is infectious after lockdown is over, the virus will spread again. We can’t lockdown forever. It is the biggest blunder in human history.

D Cage
Reply to  Alan Tomalty (@ATomalty)
April 4, 2020 10:44 pm

This ignores a well studied and documented effect of viral load which means the severity of the disease depends on the exposure levels. Left to itself it does get younger people who get a heavy infection. You can see this in the way the epidemic has behaved in high density compared to semi rural areas. Lockdown is a bad idea but a controlled exposure would be far more effective in the long term. In practice we have this semi lockdown but a more controlled version with everyone starting at a two day week would have higher initial deaths but in the long term reduce the risk of a repeat the moment it ends.

KcTaz
Reply to  LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
April 4, 2020 2:23 pm

Jim, I was not defending wet markets. They are uncivilized, barbaric, dangerous to the human race and should be shut down and until they are shut down, no nation should allow Chinese citizens to come across their border. If that’s what it takes to force China to close them, so be it. Do it. It’s China’s choice.
As it is, though, they have reopened them which is unbelievable except that–it’s China. They are also killing and eating endangered species thus, contributing to their extinction. They are indefensible but, it’s China.
However, it’s not the only possible source of the virus outbreak. China has not one but two virology, bio-warfare labs in Wuhan. It’s a violation to a treaty nations signed, including China, but, hey, it’s China. It could have slipped out of one of them. It’s happened before.
Adding to the suspicion is China’s obsession to keep the whole thing quiet (with the help of WHO), and not only not inform the world, but lie about it and even insist there was no human to human transmission.
EXCLUSIVE: Coronavirus Expert Says Virus Could Have Leaked From Wuhan Lab
https://bit.ly/2UYqbtp

April 02, 2020
* Richard H. Ebright, a molecular biologist who has been quoted as a coronavirus expert by The Washington Post and MSNBC, said Thursday that it’s possible that COVID-19 leaked from a Wuhan lab.
…The researchers also cited testimonies from nearly 60 people who lived in or visited Wuhan saying that the bat “was never a food source in the city, and no bat was traded in the market.”
…The SARS virus escaped twice from the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing in 2004, one year after the virus was initially contained…”

Adrian Mann
Reply to  LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
April 4, 2020 4:33 pm

Hey, thats a great idea!
I’ll tell my wife (who has Stage 3 emphysema and COPD) that she must be prepared to lay down her life so that personal freedoms are not infringed and the economy and shareholder value can continue to grow, and you can use your herd immunity to spread your wit and wisdom. I’m sure she’ll understand. Better idea – why don’t you tell her, and all the others, that their meaningless lives are expendable for the greater good. We were looking forward to celebrating our 25th wedding anniversary in June, but I guess a funeral will have to do instead. 64,975 so far. Small price to pay.
Enjoy your limitless growth future! More Burgers! More guns! More vehicles and cruises! Yee fecking ha.

NB: I will never, ever look at or read whatever comment you may make or leave, so don’t bother. Irrelevant.

LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
Reply to  Adrian Mann
April 5, 2020 11:46 pm

If you’re replying to me, you’ll note I wrote:
“We should have told the elderly and immune-compromised to shelter-in-place until this virus passes or we have a viable vaccine (with financial aid to get them through if they needed it), while telling the young and the healthy to continue on with their lives while suggesting they wear gloves and masks to slow the spread.”

Perhaps you should have read what I wrote, rather than glancing through the first paragraph and going off on your anti-capitalism rant, eh? LOL

How is your wife (with Stage 3 emphysema and COPD) going to fare when the businesses who make her medication and the medical equipment necessary to ameliorate her condition cannot remain in business because no one can afford their products? How is she going to fare when you can’t find any food on the store shelves?

Every job that puts food on the table is an essential job. Locking down the economy was a stupid and destructive idea that will do far more harm than the good it purports to do… we can’t run from this virus, it’ll still be there when we come out of hiding (and there will be more on the way in the future… bats carry more than 60 human-infectious viruses… SARS and MERS were two of them), whereupon the infectivity rate explodes again. So you’ve effectively chosen to keep your wife in hiding in perpetuum because you want to keep the economy locked down, keep people in their houses, so we never gain herd immunity. Or perhaps your panicky response has you not thinking so clearly. Or perhaps non-thinking is your natural state… given your anti-capitalism rant, I’m betting you’re a liberal, so that’s very likely. LOL

The only way is through… get the healthy to gain herd immunity by making it difficult for the virus to infect them (via pre-dosing) so they can clear the virus easily, and the spread of the virus is damped.

Your anti-capitalism hysterics are noted and laughed at.

gbaikie
Reply to  LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
April 4, 2020 8:52 pm

–What are we accomplishing here?

If we’re attempting to ‘flatten the curve’ to prevent swamping the hospitals, that’s not exactly worked… hospitals are getting swamped. My own hospital emailed me, begging for any N95 masks I might have. We’ve slightly wiggled the curve, that’s it. We’ve been locked down for weeks, and that curve has barely moved. No ‘flattening’ is in evidence.–
It depends where you are.
It will be 2 weeks, on Sunday 8pm tomorrow when New York State, had, “the “New York State on PAUSE” executive order — mandates that all non-essential businesses cease operations and all non-essential personnel remains at home besides grocery runs, emergencies and some light exercise.”
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-20200320-hiya77j3w5brjbt7lbkrvcmeve-story.html

Other States are doing social distancing, and not in same kind of lockdown as New York. Whereas California had earlier State lockdown:
“California ordered its 40 million residents to stay at home except for essential activities beginning Thursday night in the largest such lockdown in the U.S., as the nation’s total coronavirus cases rose to more than 14,000 and an intensifying outbreak in Europe pushed State Department officials to advise citizens not to travel abroad.”
So that’s been a bit more than 2 weeks, almost 2 1/2 weeks, though parts of California {and Washington State] started a bit earlier.
Considering the population density of New York city and state, it seems it was locked down a bit late. Or the virus seemed to be doubling every 2 to 3 days and so one could say, New York State as result was “twice as bad” as compared to locking down 3 days earlier. Though obviously hard to know when to do it.

Anyhow, we are flattening the curve, but when start to do anything to do this, there seems to about 5 to 6 day delay, because it takes about that much time before anyone can even know they have the virus.

LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
Reply to  gbaikie
April 6, 2020 12:07 am

Yeah, I’m in CA, but I’m an ‘essential’ employee, so I’m still out and about every day.

Strange that they say to lock down, to stay in your houses… except you can go to Costco and fight 500 other people for toilet paper. LOL

Nah, I march to my own tune, I make my own rules… I never follow the dictates of government bureaucrats (never let someone who’s done nothing tell you how to do anything).

I never used a mask, nor gloves. I washed my hands when they were dirty and no more often than that, no more often than I usually do. I touched biometric devices and surfaces touched by thousands of people per day, many of them international travelers. I breathed the air recirculated from the building which tens of thousands of international travelers per day transited through.

I used my brain, did my research, figured out a saner path, and now I’ve got immunity. And all I had to suffer for it was a slight tickle in my throat and a feeling of general tiredness for a day. I had a guy infected with Covid19 coughing around me for a couple of work days, and that was the worst I got. I worked right alongside the guy, I was definitely within his ‘sphere of influence’ as regards transmitting the virus. It’s been long enough now that if I was going to get sick, I would have.

Get herd immunity, people. It’s the only way this thing ends. The nanny-state ninnies would have us shelter-in-place forever, destroying our economy and not imparting herd immunity, meaning we’d have a resurgence of the virus when we finally crawled, bleary-eyed and awe-struck at the financial havoc we’ve wrought, out of our hovels. Then what? Rinse and repeat until we all starve?

niceguy
Reply to  LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
April 7, 2020 7:33 pm

“We should have told the elderly and immune-compromised to shelter-in-place until …”

But for year you have accepted the anti-antivaxxers speech that attacked un-vaccinated people for the potential “harm” they might cause to “weak” people (elderly and immune-compromised …). You let Big Pharma/Big Doctors/Big Medicine/Big Vaccine drown the airwaves with the silly claim that one is somehow responsible for the disease other people catch, and that someone should not be vaccinated to avoid carrying potentially deadly disease (that is, almost any disease).

Even the WUWT crowd mocked vaccine skeptics/vaccine realists and peddled that crap.

Now you sleep in it.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 10:31 am

In response to Vukcevik, my method does not place too much reliance on daily fluctuations of the sort he mentions. And I rely on case counts rather than death counts, because they give an earlier indication of whether public-health measures are working and, if so, to what extent.

My next piece will be illustrated with a graph showing how the daily seven-day moving average case growth rate for a dozen countries and for the world excluding China has been generally falling, except in Sweden, where there is no lockdown and it is beginning to rise. Using a seven-day moving average case growth rate smooths out the diurnal fluctuations, which can give a misleading picture of the true trend.

But that trend, almost everywhere in the Western world, is downward – though not yet downward enough.

MarkW
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 4:23 pm

Just don’t tread on the trend line.

Bruce 2
Reply to  Vuk
April 5, 2020 7:20 am

We were going to get ‘stung’ by this virus no matter what we did. So I guess I would agree shooting the bees off our nose with a shotgun definitely ‘works’. Recovery is going to be a little painful. I’d like to see a broader definition of ‘works’.

Sometimes I get the impression that an epidemiologist worldview here is that they are telling everyone to take cover, go to your basements, while we cleanse the world above you…when in fact as the all clear is given we come out of our basements to find nothing left, a shambles, our houses blown away, downed power lines, their cleansing amounted to getting rid of the virus at all costs.

Healthcare workers would do well to expand their understanding of how an economy works (it’s not their expertise). You don’t just tell everyone to stay home and close all retail and expect there to be the same thriving economy when you say it’s all clear. Or expect all those people who stayed home to have either a job or a business to come back to. That thriving economy will be long gone. A thriving economy is a societal good health issue not just dollars and cents. An unhealthy economy with mass unemployment is a serious societal health issue. Just look to the Great Depression and massive unemployment. We will match that unemployment if retail is shut down much longer. To a health care worker, it’s just stay at home, go back to work later. They actually think all that work and business will be there later?

The damage from destroyed savings, destroyed livelihoods, destroyed families, homelessness, poverty, 20-30% unemployment greater than the Great Depression….and the resulting mental and physical health problems that will only show up in the months following your declared ‘win’ will be immense. Come back and tell us it was all worth it just to slow…not stop but slow…this disease by simlply telling people to stay home, and were there better ways.

It’s a little early to say it ‘works’. I’m reminded of those who declared ‘Mission Accomplished’ in Iraq before the real troubles came. We’ll be fighting the results of this ‘shutting the world down’ for years to come.

This was not the Black Plague that might have merited this nuclear option.

Just wait. But it’s far to soon to see if this all has ‘worked’. But as I said it depends on your definition of ‘works’. I wouldn’t choose one that results in more human suffering over a much longer time frame.

Scissor
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 9:46 am

Almost 200 fewer deaths below your trend line. That’s a good direction.

Editor
April 4, 2020 2:16 am

Thank you for the analysis and your insights, Christopher.

Stay safe and healthy, all,
Bob

Greg
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
April 4, 2020 3:57 am

When HIV first emerged, I minuted the Cabinet to the effect that there should be universal testing, followed by immediate, compulsory and permanent isolation of carriers.

Mandatory life sentence for homosexuality. That may have been a difficult to pass, but certainly one of your better policy ideas !! Good job that never got out until today, someone would have said it crass.

the lamentable Chief Officer of Health in London described at a press conference some weeks ago as “herd immunity”.

Yes, once in a while they let mask drop and reveal how they really regard the population. They see the surfs as herd of cattle, they just not supposed to say so in public.

The reference period for the test is the three weeks from January 22 to 14 March 2020, the date on which Mr Trump declared a national emergency. During the reference period, the mean compound daily growth rate in confirmed cases was 19.8%. Confirmed cases were thus doubling worldwide every 3.8 days.

It is senseless trying to do an analysis on world wide data. There 3 clearly separate populations affected : China Europe and N.America. The timing of the epidemic in each population is distinct and thus confounding the will just blur any results and falsify conclusions. Also any test period should include at least 3 days of incubation period otherwise any effects before the confinement had had time to impact DETECTED infections will be confounded.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 7:26 am

I don’t even trust the mortality figures. How are we to know the number of patients who died OF the virus, and the number who died WITH the virus? Are we certain that ALL the victims were infected?

The British Government apparently believes privately that the Chinese numbers should be multiplied by a factor of 15 to 40.

John Tillman
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 7:30 am

“Herd immunity” is a term of art in epidemiology, with a specific technical meaning. Maybe the official was tone deaf to use it in addressing a general audience, but its use doesn’t necessarily mean that he considers the public a herd of livestock.

damp
Reply to  John Tillman
April 4, 2020 9:31 am

+1

Even mindless faith in experts requires some attention to definitions of the terms they throw around.

J Mac
Reply to  John Tillman
April 4, 2020 10:05 am

Just so! “Herd immunity” is a valid technical term, not an insult.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  J Mac
April 4, 2020 11:07 am

In reply to J Mac, the lamentable British Chief Medical Officer of Health had failed to realize that the strain of the Chinese Virus now in circulation had mutated from the original strain and was both more infectious and more fatal. He ought to have known, but did not know. Outside China and occupied Tibet, the case fatality rate among closed cases – those who have either died or recovered – is higher than for any similar recent pandemic: i.e., 27%. Not 2.7%, but 27%.

And the confirmed-case growth rate was running at 19% daily at the time. Not monthly. Not weekly. Daily. Put those two facts together and it is not at all difficult to see why there was an international outcry at the Chief Medical Officer’s fatuous remark, whereupon the Government was forced into a humiliating climbdown within the day.

Greg
Reply to  J Mac
April 4, 2020 12:37 pm

failed to realize that the strain of the Chinese Virus now in circulation had mutated from the original strain and was both more infectious and more fatal.

According to who? The CofB index of COVID?

You cannot compare the ratio of daily deaths and cases ( which is NOT what mortality refers to ) to the final result calculated AFTER an epidemic has subsided and all the numbers are in. You should have known that but you didn’t. Or maybe you did.

No one has identifies a new genome of a “new strain” . Since you have “studied” the genome you must know that too.

J Mac
Reply to  J Mac
April 4, 2020 6:04 pm

In reply to Christopher Monckton of Brenchley,
The technical phrase ‘herd immunity’ may be deemed offensive in the UK but it is not here in the USA. It is acceptable here, even to the anti-vaccine folks who depend on it to protect their children, as they put others at risk.

We have no disagreement, beyond the cultural differences in accepted phraseology.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  J Mac
April 5, 2020 4:00 am

The hapless Greg appears not to know that the virus has mutated since its original strain. If only he would approach these questions with an open mind rather than an open mouth. Open mouths are dangerous when there are infections around.

bonbon
Reply to  John Tillman
April 4, 2020 10:16 am

Thin ice!
XR welcomes the virus to cull the herd, now well publicized.

Of course Prince Philip didn’t necessarily mean it when publicly wishing reincarnation as a virus to do “something” about the population.
Nor did Lord Bertrand Russell’s disappointment that war was not enough and plagues would be necessary, necessarily mean he considered the human species a herd.
“Herd” is a eugenics term, epidemiology lipstick notwithstanding.
Epidemiologist Osterholm of CIDRAP, in a WaPo piece, insists that the financial structure
actually behind the threat to all of civilization must be saved, at great risk to humanity — accepting that it is “the structure on which are lives are based” — necessarily means the British origin of what he is arguing for.

KcTaz
Reply to  bonbon
April 4, 2020 1:10 pm

bonbon,

Now that Prince Charles has the virus, I wonder what the Royal Family and British elites are thinking about that cull the herd thing?

Slyrik
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 10:30 am

Is it worth considering that the downturn of the rate of infection is because most people have been infested and now the virus has nowhere to go… the famed herd immunity kicking in… and because we don’t have widespread antibody testing it is impossible to know… and also many of the old week and infirmed that would die of the disiese … have died…. no one else left that it can kill…. and therefore the reduction in numbers has nothing to do with the laughable attempts to stem the spread of the virus??

MarkW
Reply to  Slyrik
April 4, 2020 4:30 pm

Official number of cases, about 1.2 million.
Most recent estimate of the earth’s population, well north of 7 billion.

We’re about 4 billion shy of reaching herd immunity levels.

Slyrik
Reply to  MarkW
April 5, 2020 1:30 am

how do you know how far shy we are of reaching herd immunity if you don’t know how many people have been infected with no symptoms?????

Greg
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
April 4, 2020 4:31 am

Insights?

. The most impressive results are those for Italy, the first country in Europe to impose a strictish lockdown. During the reference period, the Italian growth rate was more than 30% per day, and cases were doubling every 2.6 days. But the lockdown is beginning to work. In the week to April 2, the daily growth rate in Italy was down to 5.2%.

CofB declares the conclusion he admits he had before doing this very lose and poorly constructed analysis.

He does not look at when Italy brought in restrictions and whether the timing of the results in anyway justifies the attribution he now assumes. All countries number of new case data gradually bend over as multiple factors come into play. Naively saying that growth rate now being less than the initial surge is proof that lockdowns have work is simply seeing what you intended to see before looking.
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I have no a priori opinion on this , it seems “logical” that restrictions should have an effect though detailed examination of the country by country data is inconclusive.

One of the main problems is that increased testing which has also been growing exponentially in countries like France is biasing the more recent data upwards. This may be masking the fact that the peak COVID has already pasted and also masks any down turn with may , OR MAY NOT, be attributable to the restrictions on movement.

Italy seems to have passed peak COVID infection about 10 days ago. Is there any clear sign of this being due to restrictions? I’ll take a leaf out of Willis’ “spot the volcano” book, can you identify the point at which restrictions in Italy came into effect on this graph of case, fatalities and their ratio ??

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Scissor
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 7:00 am

Your assessment seems correct as it’s a difficult problem to see effects of change within this pandemic by judging rates of growth and also because of time lags associated with presentation of symptoms, disease progression and outcomes. Also, the lies from China need to be filtered and digested to help determine some truth of what happened there. In any case, it seems that bureaucrats and politicians will be able to find what they need to justify their course of actions.

I hope that Sweden does not change its approach, at least to maintain the value of their experiment. Real value will also be gained through the study of the approaches used by S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong.

Greg
Reply to  Scissor
April 4, 2020 8:22 am

The drop in italian deaths is lagging the drop in new cases by about 5 days, as shown in my graph . A recent report said that was the median time from admission to a negative “outcome”.

They were completely overwhelmed and the EU bureaucracy was missing in action and left them to it.

After years of “austerity” imposed mainly by Germany, health systems have been run down to a level to cope with daily needs not to cope epidemics.

French deaths just jumped form about 500 per day for the last four days to 2000. That seems very improbable as a medical reality and suggest accounting issues or a change in what they are counting. Have they just switched from “die from” to “died with” ?

Maybe they are planning a new announcement … ?

Arthur GEVART
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 12:20 pm

they started counting the deaths of the elderly in the EHPAD’s , retirement and nursing structures.

Greg
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 1:32 pm

Many thanks Arthur , I was starting to suspect that was the case, I been advancing exactly that idea with people earlier today. Do you have source for that, it would be very useful to note on any future graphs.

That will probably end like the Chinese data, a massive one day spike and rescaling of all future data. Not helpful to data analysis but probably a more honest account.

niceguy
Reply to  Greg
April 5, 2020 7:29 am

“the EU bureaucracy was missing in action and left them to it.”

What do you believe the EU is responsible for here, in term of day to day healthcare? (as opposed to regulation stuff like drug testing, toxicity standards, etc.)

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 10:45 am

Greg, as always, is unpleasant and wrong. It is quite well known that I publicly as well as privately advocated the isolation of those infected with HIV, for otherwise, I said, tens of millions would die. Tens of millions did die, and half a million people a year are still dying. Most of those lives could have been saved, and the isolation would not have had to be anything like as rigorous as for the present pandemic, though it would have had to be permanent. But Greg doesn’t care. Let them all die – that’s his hateful approach.

And the analysis I have done is, whether he likes it or not, a standard analysis, which is particularly useful during the early stages of a pandemic, when the case growth rate will – for well-understood reasons – strictly follow an exponential curve. The calibration exercise I originally did showed that in the world outside China and occupied Tibet the mean daily case growth rate was 19% to March 14, the day Mr Trump announced a state of national emergency. if that growth rate had continued uninhibited, a quarter of the world’s population would have been infected by the end of May. Given that the ratio of deaths to closed cases (cases that have either recovered or died) is 27% outside China, that was not a tenable option for responsible governments.

Once today’s update is published, with a graph showing how different nations’ approaches have changed the daily case growth rate, Greg will be in a better-informed position to discern the effect that lockdowns are having. It will save lives, lots of lives.

Greg
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 1:19 pm

Thanks for taking the time to reply, even if it was disrespectfully in the third person.

if that growth rate had continued uninhibited, a quarter of the world’s population would have been infected by the end of May.

So having spend over decade nobly fighting misleading, alarmist BS by climatologists and UN “clerks” you now adopt their methods. You are pulling an RPC8.6 “business as usual” here.

Why on Earth are you calibrating “world outside china” against a US only confinement date? That is stupid. Firstly there are two distinct populations groups there with at least 2 full weeks delay in evolution of the disease. EU vs N.Am.

EU countries acted well before the USA ( understandably ) so the Trump announcement is IRRELEVANT to any effects on that group. You are obviously blurring any signal which may be there.

And the analysis I have done is, whether he likes it or not, a standard analysis

I am not criticising the use of an exponential model to the data, I have been posting such analyses several times a day here myself. However, what I am critcising is your idea that a slower exponential growth now proves the restrictions were effective.

That is NOT a “standard analysis” because we have not tried continental shutdowns before and in no context would the reduction between your calibration period and the present in any way establish that the shut down was the cause any reductions in the intervening period. That is not even a correlation. To claim that is a standard analysis is typical of your disingenuous deceitful BS which is why I am often “unpleasant” about your posts even while I consider you are on the right side of the AGW argument.

I posted a graph of the Italian data where we can see that the curve has been flattening pretty continuously all the way through. There is NO visible point at which you could even suggest there may be an inflection caused by their shutdown. I invited you to show where the effect was and you totally ignored to declare me “wrong” without presenting a single factual support for such a conclusion.

I too expected the restrictions to have a visible effect and I’m surprised not to find one. But unlike you, I did come to the question with an open mind and when I find NO evidence I have to correct my assumptions, not resort to climatological methods to prove my biased a priori assumptions were correct.

I give you or anyone else who is interested another chance to “spot the lockdown” on the graph of Italian cases and fatalities.

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sycomputing
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 1:32 pm

Greg will be in a better-informed position to discern the effect that lockdowns are having.

It does not follow from the procurement of better information that one necessarily makes proper use of it.

Greg
Reply to  sycomputing
April 4, 2020 2:49 pm

Once today’s update is published, with a graph showing how different nations’ approaches have changed the daily case growth rate, Greg will be in a better-informed position to discern the effect that lockdowns are having. It will save lives, lots of lives.

Well I look forward to more convincing evidence. I certainly hope it will save lives because it WILL do far more damage than the last 15 years of climate stupidity has done. The cost of which will pale in comparison.

It does not follow from the procurement of better information that one necessarily makes proper use of it.

Agreed, I hope CofB makes better use of it this time.

sycomputing
Reply to  sycomputing
April 4, 2020 3:16 pm

Agreed, I hope CofB makes better use of it this time.

Mah! I see what you did there . . . clever!

Charles Higley
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
April 4, 2020 6:56 am

However, they report positive tests as if these people are sick and just carriers. A level of carriers up to 50% is not common. Why so many positive tests?

None of the Covid-19 tests have been vetted for being accurate for this virus. The PCR test was released by the CDC without vetting. And other tests, cobbled up quickly by various hospitals, again are unverified for accuracy (creating such a specific test almost overnight in a hospital lab is virtually impossible in the real world). Now they are talking about a 10-min test, which simply cannot be specific for a certain virus in the environment that largely only differs from other coronaviruses in its DNA sequence. As there are no antibody tests for the virus’s coat proteins, DNA has to be the metric being measured.

So, what are we testing for? Humans have many varieties of coronaviruses (covis) all year round and the flu season includes a salad of flu and covi viruses. These tests are more likely to be testing for the general covi level in a person, regardless of the covi virus. This quickly explains why there are so many positive test results wherever we start testing.

In addition, where the total and positive test data is available, there is a relatively low, 5–15%, positive percentage which is not increasing. Although the positive “cases” (begging the meaning of “case” here, as in the real world you have to be ill to be a case; having the virus does not make you by definition ill) are rising exponential, it has to be pointed out that the rate of testing is rising exponentially and thus positive results increasing exponentially.

It appears that we have an epidemic of testing, which is testing for a general background (and flu season accentuated) of covi in those tested. This explains the observed “exponential” growth reported and also explains why there is such a high level of asymptomatic positives.

Does it not bother people that there is such a high level of asymptomatic people, which suggests that up to 50% of the population is naturally immune or that it is a very weak virus that only takes the already health compromised?

The media and governments are clearly seeking to alarm the people and, almost gleefully, mention amazingly hit mortality rates and totals. However, if we are just measuring covi presence, it becomes meaningless. This this is a SCAMDEMIC.

If we did not have a purported test for a specific virus, the resulting flu season deaths would not even show a blip and, thus far only add up to a mild flu season. This is like worrying about a burning match while your house is burning down, as the flu season overall takes many more people up, to 10–30 times as many, every year. Some people are saying this could be worse than the Spanish flu that age-indiscriminately killed 10–50 million worldwide and 675,000 (up to 1.5 million) in the US. The world is currently at 61,000 deaths and the US at 7200, the latter being just 1% of the Spanish flu, and both worldwide and in the US only about 10% of a normal flu season. Not even a blip in the deaths.

In addition, just because one is positive for Covid-19, pretending the tests to be accurate, this does not indicate that it is the virus making one sick. A person can have any number of other viruses at the time tested for just the one. We have no efficient way to eliminate other causes, but many just assume Covid-19 out of hand.

Also, as testing for this virus in the US did not really start until the end of February, how can they legitimately assume that the flu season, and whichever virus is the culprit making people sick ( not conclusively linked to Covid-19), has not already spread throughout the country, in light of our interstate commerce and travel.

In WV, US, we had a round of illnesses from mid-January through February and have had virtually no illnesses since then. With no “tests,” we do not know anything concrete, but then again, the tests are essentially meaningless anyhow.

The cumulative world death rate is still light for a flu season, despite auto accidents victims being tested, found to be positive, and listed as a Covid-19 death. Many Covid-19 deaths are listed based on assumed cause of death and not real analysis or autopsy. The Italians have two very cogent designations: “died with Covid-19” and “died from Covid-19.” Few deaths are “from Covid-19,” as there is almost always a chronic health problem, immunocompromised, or an unknown, yet to be diagnosed condition, such undiagnosed leukemia in one instance.

A pandemic of testing for a normal background factor and media/government fostered fear.

Is hiding-at-home working? Regarding basically breaking the flu season, it can do that. But, as far as getting rid of the normal background covi levels, unlikely, which means they will keep pushing this SCAMDEMIC way beyond the flu season and when deaths drop off to normal. They will try to keep the panic alive, constantly shouting that the virus is still out there, lurking for a comeback. As one person observed, we could be come a totalitarian hygienic state.

Bill Parsons
Reply to  Charles Higley
April 5, 2020 12:37 am

I agree with most of your assumptions, and especially am concerned about the likelihood that COVID-19 deaths are likely resulting from a deadly combination of conditions, which with CV-19 deliver a one-two punch. It would seem a no-brainer that ICU doctors are testing for and ruling out flu as a co-morbidity, unless it is simply too difficult to differentiate them.

But inflamatory arguments that this is a more transmissible virus – or a more deadly virus – than we have seen gain traction from dramatic coverage from around the world where certain hospitals are claiming they are overwhelmed by CV cases. What has happened, and what is happening, to these health facilities in New York, Lombardy and elsewhere?

richardw
April 4, 2020 2:31 am

What of the age distribution and comorbidity factors? I read from Italy’s public health organisation that there should be a distinction between those who died ‘with’ coronavirus and those who died ‘from’ it. Only around 12% died from it (as opposed to with it) in that country, and the vast majority of those who died are above 75 years old. Mabe COVID accelerated the sad deaths of the others – but they were going to die soon from their conditions anyway. Maybe more people will suffer and die as a result of the lockdown – it comes at huge personal and economic cost, particularly for the less fortunate, which may not be fully reversible. As a result we may be sliding towards a period of totalitarian rule and the abandonment of personal liberty. We need to isolate old people and those with comorbidity factors, and mandate the wearing of facemasks in public – not for the protection of the wearer where they may not be so effective, but to limit spread from those who are unknowingly infected.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  richardw
April 4, 2020 3:16 am

In response to RichardW, the Chinese virus, like all viruses, chiefly kills the old and the sick. In public-health policy terms, one has to decide how many old and sick people should simply be left to die. I am going to begin from the Christian standpoint that no one should simply be left to die if reasonable and proportionate precautions can be taken.

But the deadlock-breaker that eventually – and very belatedly – persuaded Boris Johnson to lock Britain down was the irrefutable evidence that, on the basis of the now-known daily compound growth rate of new cases and of what could possibly be a far higher death rate per 100 cases than the useless WHO had imagined, the National Health Service would be completely overwhelmed within weeks, not only leaving the old and the sick to die in altogether unacceptable numbers but also preventing the healthcare systems from providing vital treatments for those with other diseases, such as cancer.

Already, the National Health Service has sent home tens of thousands of patients with other diseases, some of them in need of quite urgent operations, so as to free up as many beds as possible for coronavirus cases.

I agree with Richardw that lockdowns are not the optimal strategy. The optimal strategy, as the figures in the head posting show, is that of South Korea, which immediately tested all who showed symptoms from the very earliest stage, and immediately isolated those who were infected, and immediately traced and tested their contacts. This strategy, because it was initiated at once, allows Korea to have a far less rigorous lockdown than is unfortunately necessary in countries such as Britain and the United States, whose governments were fatally slow to intervene.

It is also very clear from the South Koreans’ considerable experience of such pandemics that wearing face-masks in public – albeit that it does not provide complete protection (it leaves the eyes exposed, for one thing – is a lot better than not wearing them. RichardW is absolutely right about this.

Bill Parsons
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 5, 2020 12:15 am

Chrisopher Monckton,

Thank you for your post – and answers to bloggers here.

A comment following this one notes the same concern I have about “contact tracing” to following positive cases. It will have a legacy wherever it is used, maybe not a good one.

I am a non-smartphone user, so curious about how how this tracking is initiated and how carried out? Who can observe whom? Is it done with people’s full cooperation or are people automatically enrolled as a condition of testing? I understand Bluetooth technology is part of this scheme…

Klem
Reply to  richardw
April 4, 2020 3:26 am

“As a result we may be sliding towards a period of totalitarian rule and the abandonment of personal liberty. ”

In some places in Canada the police are finding people in the middle of nowhere, sitting by themselves on beaches or fishing on trout streams. The police are fining them hundreds of dollars for disobeying the cvd-19 laws.

How are they locating them? Through their cell phones, of course.

Once cvd-19 has passed, cell phone tracking will be the norm. Next will be a Chinese style social credit system, you know, because pandemics.

Lave your cell phones home folks.

icisil
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 4:37 am

I should have posted here what I posted below.

Greg
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 5:44 am

Right, so some totally isolated in the middle of the wilderness gets fines for not observing social distancing and self-isolation.

LdB
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 9:31 am

No they got fined for not staying at home, they ignored the instruction.

KcTaz
Reply to  LdB
April 4, 2020 2:10 pm

LdB,
The greatest danger of spreading infection was from the policeman to the fisherman. If you are in the middle of nowhere with no one else around, who in the heck are you going to infect? That IS social distancing on steroids.
Besides, being outdoors is fine per the head of the So. Korean Infection Control. It’s good to keep some distance but the chances of getting infected are extremely low. The wind and air blow the viruses up and away. It’s meant for closed rooms where the virus can float around like the dust particles you see in your house when the light hit them because they are in a confined space.
You Need To Listen To This Leading COVID-19 Expert From South Korea | ASIAN BOSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&feature=youtu.be

•Mar 27, 2020

People like you scare me and are the stuff of what totalitarians are made. Recall, it was the CDC and WHO who said people don’t need to wear masks. I guess you think because they said that, anyone wearing a mask was disobeying the rules and should be shot? Now, they’ve had to admit, thanks to So. Korea and other Asian nations who do where masks, they were wrong.
Canadian authorities are wrong in this case, too, and that rule is simply astonishingly stupid for rural, remote areas.

KcTaz
Reply to  LdB
April 4, 2020 3:31 pm

LdB,

Here’s a fellow after your heart.

Duterte warns those who violate coronavirus lockdown will be shot dead
https://fxn.ws/340XfVV

LdB
Reply to  LdB
April 5, 2020 10:31 am

I didn’t say it was right or wrong … just why they got fined which was stated incorrectly.

niceguy
Reply to  LdB
April 6, 2020 11:17 pm

The instruction? From whom, their mother, or their master?

Or owner? Is that the return of slavery?

Sommer
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 9:41 am

What kind of a precedent are we setting for future viruses? Rural remote communities are being hit hard financially by the lockdown.
Is this intentional.
Who will rescue the businesses impacted?

Reply to  Sommer
April 4, 2020 9:44 am

re: “Rural remote communities are being hit hard financially by the lockdown.”

Can you be troubled for one or two examples, a case sample or two?

Oldseadog
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 5:45 am

You don’t have to leave it at home, take it with you but switched off, just turn it on to make a call then switch it off again.
But what do I know, I don’t have one to start with.

Greg
Reply to  Oldseadog
April 4, 2020 7:25 am

But what do I know ….

Many modern phones, have non removable batteries and are never really off. Don’t think you own such devices just because you paid for them. You probably need to put them in metallic cigar tin or similar.

Like you I think the best thing is never to own one in the first place.

Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 7:39 am

re: “Many modern phones, have non removable batteries and are never really off. ”

Really pretty easy to see if it’s “operating” when off, or, if it pulses ‘awake’ cyclically (and you don’t need a lab full of spectrum analyzers or RF probes): Simply take a pocket portable AM radio and pass it over the front and back of the device with the radio tuned in between stations – if you hear ANY noise at all when the pocket-portable radio is near the phone, it’s “on”.

Try this trick with the phone first on, then off. When “on”, all sorts of buzzes and clicks and even white noise will be heard as the AM pocket portable is passed over different areas of the phone …

Greg
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 1:37 pm

Yes, a good field test suggestion. However, you need to leave it on for some time and sit there quietly listening for signs of activity. The device is in deep standby and will only wake up periodically to ping the local cell network.

Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 1:56 pm

re: “However, you need to leave it on for some time and sit there quietly listening for signs of activity. The device is in deep standby and will only wake up periodically to ping the local cell network.”

Defies logic because of the purpose of ‘periodic registration’ in a cellular system, which is to notify the switch on which cell site the phone may be found ‘camped’ ready for a ‘call’ (ready for what used be termed a “paging attempt”.)

IF the HLR (or VLR) has not been updated with ‘registration attempt’ in awhile (a settable system parameter, like 5 minutes) or the phone was seen to issue a ‘power down’ registration, a CALL to that phone is routed immediately to voice mail with NO ‘paging attempt’ being made. That way no system resources are wasted ‘calling’ a phone that is powered off. Its a practical consideration.

sycomputing
Reply to  Greg
April 5, 2020 7:05 am

_Jim:

Simply take a pocket portable AM radio . . .

I’ll try it. Do you have a favorite manufacturer? Thanks in advance for a recommendation.

Reply to  sycomputing
April 5, 2020 7:40 am

I tried it with a 2 AA battery powered Sony model ICF-S10 (before making my previous post even!) Here’s example product: https://www.amazon.com/Sony-ICF-S10MK2-Pocket-Discontinued-Manufacturer/dp/B00004WFYC

These can be found on eBay for ~20 bucks or so.

Any AM band portable should work, the several DC to DC converters internal to the phone as well the uProcessors create EMI close-up such that an active phone, iPod etc creates a little detectable RF energy in the AM broadcast band when those circuits are ‘active’.

Something these ‘numpties’ who claim their phones ‘ping’ towers don’t understand is – there are established over-the-air protocols that ALL base station manufacturers adhere to, such that they operate with ALL brands of phones! These numpties somehow think ALL this base station infrastructure operates via ‘magic’, hence, ‘Cargo Cult science’, detached from: real-world physics, wireless standards and established interface protocols.

Example GSM MS (mobile station) to BSS (Base Station Subsystem) ‘Attach’ (registration) and ‘Detach’ (power down) procedures (protocol) a GSM/GPRS capable cell phone executes here (includes ‘bounce’ diagrams showing message flow btw phone and cell system):

http://etutorials.org/Mobile+devices/gprs+mobile+internet/Chapter+7+Signaling+Plane/GMM/

sycomputing
Reply to  Greg
April 6, 2020 5:26 am

I tried it with a 2 AA battery powered Sony model ICF-S10 . . .

Thanks _Jim! Interesting comments!

Foley Hund
Reply to  Oldseadog
April 4, 2020 7:50 am

Turning off the cell phone is not the remedy. Putting it in a metal box is a remedy…or leave it a home. I use old cigar tins and old tea tins. Best to use one that fits into another. Happy Hiding 🙂

Reply to  Foley Hund
April 5, 2020 7:46 am

re: ” Putting it in a metal box is a remedy…or leave it a home. I use old cigar tins ”

And I can demonstrate that this is INSUFFICIENT. The usual painted tin surfaces ON THE LID EDGES don’t allow the conduction of RF currents therefore those areas become a source of RF energy (‘cellphone signal’ (for the layman)) egress.

Robertvd
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 7:30 am

“As a result we may be sliding towards a period of totalitarian rule and the abandonment of personal liberty. ”

We have no Liberty. Every country with a Direct tax (like income tax) system is a Totalitarian system. The Direct tax system gives those in power the right to know EVERYTHING about you. We are less than slaves. If you don’t see this your blind for reality.

Robertvd
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 7:44 am

Everything those in power can take away is NO right only a privilege. Freedom is an illusion. Western democracies are totalitarian systems.

Kevin
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 8:33 am

If someone is worried about being tracked they can put their phone in a metal box (perhaps an old tool box), wrap it in aluminum foil or take the battery out. Cell phones are still available today that have removable batteries, just do an internet search to see the latest models. Powering off your phone won’t work in most cases BTW.

Reply to  Kevin
April 4, 2020 8:43 am

re: ” they can put their phone in a metal box ”

Silly rabbit … even these means can be “ineffective”.

Why not try a clove of garlic around the neck instead?

Reply to  Kevin
April 4, 2020 8:46 am

re: “Powering off your phone won’t work in most cases BTW.”

Let’s just say, you don’t have any idea of what’s taking place. We are truly experiencing yet another from of “Cargo Cult science” here.

Side question: Do you perform your own brain surgery too?

Kevin
Reply to  _Jim
April 4, 2020 1:57 pm

_Jim,

Have you ever heard of a Faraday Cage or Shield? Obviously not. Put your phone in one and see if you can still receive calls.

The microwave oven is a Faraday Shield. Take a close look at the door glass, see that grid, it’s part of the Faraday Shield. Without it microwave energy would be transmitted in all areas around the unit causing a real hazard to humans or any animal nearby

Generally all modern cell phones continue to “ping” the nearby cell phone tower/antenna even when they are turned off.

Never performed brain surgery BTW, I’m not a Dr. I did stay at a Holiday Inn once.

Reply to  Kevin
April 4, 2020 2:15 pm

re: “Have you ever heard of …”

No – no, Kevin. Here is another case of Dunning-Kruger being exhibited by a member of the public. You are MISUSING a technical term on a TECHNICAL blog!!!!! The term you are looking for is “shield” or “screening”. You misuse the term “Faraday” like most lay persons, because, its mis-USE *is* so prevalent.

View an actual ‘Faraday screen’ or shield about 2/3rds of the way down this page:
http://www.w8ji.com/skindepth.htm Note: A so-called Faraday Shield is for blocking the ‘electric’ field component and much, much less the magnetic. Go check an elementary physics text on this.

Here is the use of a Faraday Shield to prevent detuning of an oscillator coil in Fig 3.22 on this page (scroll up a page): https://books.google.com/books?id=e_oZ69GAuxAC&pg=PA137&lpg=PA137&dq=induction++%22Faraday+shield%22+detuned&source=bl&ots=vXmF1ohP5u&sig=LIvvr79RGmotjfvXI3CbDw5Cqdk&hl=en&ei=wN6qSv7hKdDqlAff5YjmBg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2#v=onepage&q&f=false
NOTE: The magnetic field coupling in the above STILL comes through, only the “E” or electric field is shielded.

re: “Generally all modern cell phones continue to “ping” the nearby cell phone tower/antenna even when they are turned off.”

NO they do NOT, you m*r*ns!! And I just gave a procedure to Greg by which you can CHECK this for yourself. There are VERY specific protocols ‘phones’ follow for registration attempts, answering a call, while actively involved in a call, and when hanging up, AND when powering down. And I’ll bet you don’t know why* … Dunning-Kruger Effect once again on display.
.
.
Why* – The purpose of ‘periodic registration’ in a cellular system, which is to notify the switch on which cell site the phone may be found ‘camped’ ready for a ‘call’ (ready for what used be termed a “paging attempt”.)

IF the HLR (or VLR) has not been updated with ‘registration attempt’ in awhile (a settable system parameter, like 5 minutes) or the phone was seen to issue a ‘power down’ registration, a CALL to that phone is routed immediately to voice mail with NO ‘paging attempt’ being made. That way no system resources are wasted ‘calling’ a phone that is powered off. Its a practical consideration.

don rady
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 9:12 am

Most beaches are being shut down around the world for surfing. This is perfect example of a politician who has no clue, and makes top down stupid laws.

Mike Freeman
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 10:29 am

to Klem

Here in Canada I’ve never heard of what you mention. Can you give a reference? Which province?

LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 10:53 am

If you’re running an Android phone, you can turn all that tracking off. My phone, in airplane mode, is completely untraceable via cell towers and aGPS. With airplane mode off, it’s only traceable via cell tower triangulation, which isn’t exactly accurate. You have to root the phone, but that’s doable in most cases. Be sure to turn off the ‘feature’ where the cellular provider can turn on tracking remotely.

The side-benefit is that the phone now runs much cooler, and the battery lasts a long time, typically decreasing only 3% / hour while being used. When sitting idle, it can sit for 40 hours and only decrease by ~4%. When connected to 4G, it uses no data except what I want it to use… all the ‘phone-home’ stuff from Google is turned off.

By the way, I found that the ‘Advertising ID’ that Google uses, which they claim you can reset so as not to be ‘tracked’ by advertisers, is fake… you can change it, but the real advertising ID, hidden from the user and which the advertisers actually use, never changes. So I turned that ‘feature’ completely off… no ads on my phone.

Martin A
Reply to  Klem
April 4, 2020 12:27 pm

Or switch them off.

Jan Fluitsma
Reply to  richardw
April 4, 2020 3:35 am

I agree.
That doesn’t mean we should stop with all other measures. We can still limit the number of customers in a shop, but we can raise that limit. May be we still should ban large gatherings for now, but that ban might be lifted earlier. Also working from home might still be a good advise. May be we can open the schools again. Better for the children and making it easier for parents to work from home.

Greg
Reply to  Jan Fluitsma
April 4, 2020 4:38 am

Yes we need to work out NOW how we unwind this mess. Most EU countries including those worst his have clearly peaked in number of new cases now. We must start progressively easing the stranglehold on the economy and start repairing that straight away.

Lockdown is the chemotherapy type solution you try to kill the disease before you kill the patient.

The art of an effective chemo protocol is to get the doses right and know when to back off if you are killing the patient. Currently we are killing the patient and have not plan of how to adjust the protocol.

Greg
Reply to  Jan Fluitsma
April 4, 2020 5:38 am

Yes we need to work out NOW how we unwind this mess. Most EU countries including those worst his have clearly peaked in number of new cases now. We must start progressively easing the stranglehold on the economy and start repairing that straight away.

Lockdown is the chemotherapy type solution you try to kill the disease before you k-i-l-l the patient.

The art of an effective chemo protocol is to get the doses right and know when to back off if you are k-illing the patient. Currently we are k-illing the patient and have not plan of how to adjust the protocol.

Greg
Reply to  Jan Fluitsma
April 4, 2020 5:39 am

Yes we need to work out NOW how we unwind this mess. Most EU countries including those worst his have clearly peaked in number of new cases now. We must start progressively easing the stranglehold on the economy and start repairing that straight away.

Lockdown is the chemotherapy type solution you try to kill the disease before you snuff the patient.

The art of an effective chemo protocol is to get the doses right and know when to back off if you are k-illing the patient. Currently we are k-illing the patient and have not plan of how to adjust the protocol.

Greg
Reply to  Jan Fluitsma
April 4, 2020 5:41 am

OK 4th attempt to avoid using the k-word ….

Yes we need to work out NOW how we unwind this mess. Most EU countries including those worst his have clearly peaked in number of new cases now. We must start progressively easing the stranglehold on the economy and start repairing that straight away.

Lockdown is the chemotherapy type solution you try to terminate the disease before you terminate the patient.

The art of an effective chemo protocol is to get the doses right and know when to back off if you are k-illing the patient. Currently we are k-illing the patient and have not plan of how to adjust the protocol.

Sommer
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 9:46 am

Greg says, “We must start progressively easing the stranglehold on the economy and start repairing that straight away.”
Start easing the “stranglehold” in rural remote communities first.

Greg
Reply to  Sommer
April 4, 2020 1:41 pm

Agreed ! That is where the density and risk of contamination is least and where the rest of this year’s food supply is going to come from.

Arguably rural should not have been shut down to start with. The trouble is those making the rules live in cities and seem to think that is all that matters.

Maybe ring fencing NYC like they did in Wuhan would have been difficult to sell in US.

Tonyb
Editor
Reply to  Sommer
April 4, 2020 3:14 pm

It us easy to see where the overwhelming sources of cases and deaths are. In America half of all cases and deaths are in new York and similarly much the same can be said of London.

There are plenty of places. where numbers of deaths are relatively speaking small, far lower than in a normal flu season and could return to mormality.

Ironically social distancing will mean those who would have caught flu and died of it will now live. Similarly hundreds who would have been killed in road accidents will also live. However none of them will ever know their escape

Rod Evans
April 4, 2020 2:36 am

Lord Monckton,
I have deep respect and regard for your well presented thoughts and facts. I also have an ongoing admiration of your well presented argument for sane reflection on Climate Change.
Sadly, on this subject of SARS Cov 2 aka Covid 19, I am less convinced your lock down support is right.
The Swedish authorities are not locking down and will provide a balanced alternative set of figures for how Covid 19 turned out there. We just have to wait six months for the results, then we will know.
Also, it is worth noting the UK is still allowing flights into and out of Heathrow. Some 100,000 and more passengers arriving daily all unchecked and untested, having been in a closed virus spreading cabin for hours before arriving. The passengers then board public transport, trains mainly, again in close contact with others, so no lock down for them. If we are going to lock down, then it needs to be all or none.
I am reminded of the quip, “The treatment was very successful and exactly what was needed unfortunately the patient died”.
This lock down and destruction of the UK economy and indeed the Western Economies will have generational long impacts. Is it worth it?
The virus will circulate no matter what, the only difference is rate of spread.
Putting this into local political terms, it is akin to the post 2019 election in the UK where the Labour Party suffered its worst thumping political defeat since the 1930s. The leader of the Labour Party declared, he had presented all the right policies that were perfectly acceptable and right for the country. The outcome for him as leader, and for the Labour Party politically, was they were both dead.
Next.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Rod Evans
April 4, 2020 3:22 am

I very much agree with Mr Evans that lockdowns are by no means the optimal strategy. The optimal strategy was that of the South Koreans – immediate testing and contact-tracing on a large enough scale to prevent the outbreak from spreading to the point where lockdowns are necessary. In those countries – such as Britain and the United States – where the correct strategy was not implemented, lockdowns are the necessary corrective action.

I agree with Mr Evans that lockdowns are cripplingly expensive. However, the alternative – allowing millions to be exposed to the risk of painful death – would have been still more expensive.

As Mr Evans will see from the head posting, I have specifically drawn attention to the Swedish approach, which is to avoid lockdowns and allow the population to acquire “herd immunity”. Unfortunately, that strategy would eventually lead to very large loss of life, which is why some 2000 Swedish health professionals have recently started a petition demanding that a lockdown be now introduced.

Until such a lockdown is introduced, Sweden will provide a very useful benchmark to tell us whether, in the absence of the prompt and splendid South Korean response, lockdowns were really necessary. My suspicion is that Sweden will either have to increase its testing and contact-tracing well beyond South Korean levels (the later you start, the more you have to do to catch up) or introduce lockdowns, or both. But let us see what the numbers actually show: that, rather than mere speculation, will be the emphasis of these daily postings.

Rune Valaker
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 3:43 am

Why have You ignored the Norwegian data where we have had a full lockdown for three weeks?

Rod Evans
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 4:01 am

Thank you Christopher for your understanding. I suffer, if that is the right word from eternal optimism. Unfortunately on this occasion, my gut feel is the world has overreacted to the full potential of the virus and has ignored the more balanced historic reflections of how viruses actually evolve and the resulting impact they have on society. The Black Death is of course, uppermost in peoples minds, in these unknown unknown, situations.
I have an ongoing worry, it is this. The cost to society of this draconian lock down strategy, to combat the effects of the Covid 19 virus, will give rise to many unintended consequences. No one knows what those future consequences will be, but one thing is clear. Removing wealth, has never been a strategy that results in positive outcomes.

Michael Lemaire
Reply to  Rod Evans
April 4, 2020 5:14 am

I think you are right Rod. A lock-down is a knee-jerk reaction to try to prevent overwhelming the hospitals, but the financial consequences are not well perceived and are unlikely to be mild. We might be better equipped today to fight a 1918-type flu than a 1930-type depression.

MarkG
Reply to  Michael Lemaire
April 4, 2020 9:50 am

“A lock-down is a knee-jerk reaction to try to prevent overwhelming the hospitals, but the financial consequences are not well perceived and are unlikely to be mild. ”

Not just the financial consequences. Supply chains are already looking flakey, and it’s only going to get worse.

Probably exponentially worse as suppliers of raw materials are shut down and that causes suppliers of finished products to shut down, which cause suppliers of products that rely on them to shut down.

The only way to prevent this nonsense was to close the borders months ago. Now we have nationwide spread, we’re destroying our economies and the epidemic those restrictions are supposed to prevent will happen as soon as the economy is opened up again.

Scissor
Reply to  Rod Evans
April 4, 2020 6:42 am

Those responsible for removing wealth, and transferring at least some to their worthy causes, would disagree with you. In this case, they are using the old, “if only one life can be saved” routine.

Michael Lemaire
Reply to  Scissor
April 4, 2020 8:04 am

Aren’t we all mortals?

Greg
Reply to  Scissor
April 4, 2020 1:44 pm

“if only one life can be saved” routine.

Yes, I listened to Cuomo’s announcement and thought he spoke very well and convincingly. Frankly made Trump look like an amateur ( which of course he is in politics ).

When he got to the “if only one life can be saved” line he blew all his hard work. We knew he was just jerking us off all along.

JimW
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 4:48 am

Check the EURO MOM data to week 13 and tell me where the European excess deaths are.
They are in the over 65 year categories in 4 countries only; Italy, Spain, France and England ( not UK). And those over 65yrs excess numbers in those 4 countries are still a long way below the equivalent excess numbers of 3 years ago, which was seasonal flu related.
There is an epidemic, but its not covid-19. Its an epidemic of irrational thought processes.

Andrew Cross
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 4:49 am

Lord Monckton,
How or where are you getting the data feed for this? Are you allowed to share your code? One area that I am specifically not seeing are the number of tests given over time or comparing to population sizes.
Thank you,

Richard Barraclough
Reply to  Andrew Cross
April 4, 2020 6:08 am

Look on the website

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

All those stats can be lifted from there.

It’s updated about once an hour, so if you want to pump their figures into your own Excel spreadsheet (or wherever), do it at the same time each day, to get the 24-hour changes

Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 4, 2020 6:51 am

Look on the website

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

All those stats can be lifted from there.

Is this an anonymously run website? Who is it that “stands behind those numbers”? Anybody with any cred? How is “data quality” assured on that website?

I trust (is trust the word I even want to use?) a little smaller “cross section” of that by the way of these people (who can be identified):

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/

JoeShaw
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 4, 2020 10:36 am

@ _Jim,

Worldometer is run by Dadax an has been around for about a decade. They are a data aggregator and their figures are as good / bad as the source data. If you look at the pages for country data there are links to the source data. You can make your own judgements as to the reliability of the sources.

For western countries I see no indication of deliberate manipulation of the data. However, there is clearly significant sample bias which results in under reporting of mild or asymptomatic cases.

KcTaz
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 4, 2020 2:29 pm

Richard Barraclough

Didn’t Willis E say he stopped using the figures from worldometers because they are inaccurate for his daily COVID-19 update? I’ll have to check but I believe he did.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Andrew Cross
April 4, 2020 10:26 am

In response to Mr Cross, if he will send his email address to monckton]at[mail.com, I shall happily send him the code (which I wrote) and the data, which I have indeed obtained from Worldometers. I have performed calibration exercises to ensure that the data are not being made up, and I have found the quality to be generally high, with very few mistakes, most of which occurred early in the year.

I do not use Excel because it has various inbuilt errors and limitations. I do my own programming, including the programming that draws the graphs that will appear in future daily updates.

Richard Barraclough
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 6, 2020 4:42 pm

Intriguing that you are worried about errors in Excel, for a reasonably simple numerical analysis. I have found it to be reliable for my own analyses, which are rather similar to the ones you have presented here, and I have even double-checked some of the results by doing the calculations in two different ways

I wonder if you could elaborate?

Many thanks

A C Osborn
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 4:58 am

Sweden may be avoiding hard “Lock Downs”, but they are using soft lock downs and ask their public nicely to use social spacing, they have also introduced travel bans, something the UK has not.
They have also banned social gatherings of more than 500 people and then later 50 people, so they recognise that their earlier rules were not working.
They also banned school tests.
So they are not really allowing herd immunity to develop naturally.
The other thing that many are not considering is Population Density.
The population density of Sweden is 25 per square Km.
By comparison UK is 281, France is 119, Spain is 94, USA is 36 and Korea is 527, Singapore is 8358.

So you can see why Sweden can afford to have more relaxed controls than most European countries, their only equivelent density is their capital at 4800 per square Km, most major cities are in that region ie London is 4,542 and for New York it is 10,947. (people wonder why NY has been hit so badly?)
So note that of the 6131 cases in Sweden 2662 and of the 333 deaths 204 are in Stockholm.

The most remarkable performances in the world to date are Singapore with a very high pop density and a massive thoughput of passengers. And Hong Kong is the other. Both of whom had their first cases in January.

Dr Deanster
Reply to  A C Osborn
April 4, 2020 7:44 am

To me all of this just supports the use of mask. Tokyo population density is ~6500/k2, they have a fraction of the cases of just about anywhere else.

You can bet after this, MASK will be standard protocol for all countries.

Richard M
Reply to  Dr Deanster
April 4, 2020 10:46 am

Exactly, the WHO will end up being the culprit as well as agencies which listened to their bad recommendations.

Masks are the key especially for covid-19. They give two levels of protection if everyone is wearing them. Those with the disease keep most of the viral load inside their masks while those without infection reduce the ability of infectious material to reach their nose/mouths. Both breathing in and touching with hands.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Dr Deanster
April 4, 2020 11:11 am

Dr Deanster is right: the South Korean public-health director says masks are not perfect, but they are a great deal better than nothing. Even the useless World Death Organization is now reviewing its advice that masks should not be used by the general public. Me, I am just back from a short walk along the country lanes, and I was wearing a full-face motorcycle helmet with the visor firmly closed.

niceguy
Reply to  Dr Deanster
April 6, 2020 8:54 pm

We’ll remember that, anti “anti-vaxxers”. You have been telling us that no “conspiracy” to lie about anything was possible.

When the lie about masks being useless for the general population was being peddled, you did nothing.

You, the anti “anti-vaxxers”, were wrong about “conspiracies” and that isn’t an accident, you are part of the “conspiracy” to lie to the People.

From now on, we will throw that lie in your face, until you hide under a rock.

niceguy
Reply to  A C Osborn
April 4, 2020 7:17 pm

“so they recognise that their earlier rules were not working.”

Or folding on pressure.

Either way, you can’t make that kind of inference, unless you want to be greenpeac-y.

icisil
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 5:02 am

The numbers are bogus, so it won’t matter what they are because they can’t tell us anything. Normal diagnostic criteria are being abandoned to conflate all manner of disease and death under one rubric of coronavirus etiology. A positive test means the virus caused the disease, even though that directly contradicts what the CDC says in their test Instructions for Use.

Positive [test] results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease. Laboratories within the United States and its territories are required to report all positive results to the appropriate public health authorities.

https://www.fda.gov/media/85454/download (link begins download of pdf)

For instance, the Conneticut governor recently claimed that an infant’s death was linked to the virus. He lied. The infant drowned and tested positive postmortem, thus the “link” to the virus. Obviously the infant’s death had nothing to do with the virus, but the death becomes a case number.

icisil
Reply to  icisil
April 4, 2020 5:35 am

Another example that the mortality data are totally worthless:

In Austria, too, “corona deaths“ are apparently defined “very liberally“, as the media report: “Do you also count as a corona death if you are infected with the virus but die of something else? Yes, say Rudi Anschober and Bernhard Benka, members of the Corona Task Force in the Ministry of Health. “There is a clear rule at present: Died with the corona virus or died from the corona virus both count for the statistics.“ No difference is made as to what the patient actually died of. In other words, a 90-year-old man who dies with a fracture of the femoral neck and becomes infected with corona in the hours prior to his death is also counted as corona death. To name but one example.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

A C Osborn
Reply to  icisil
April 4, 2020 6:50 am

Do you think any other epidemic has correct deaths statistics, if you do you are rather silly.
Just look at the CDC data for Flu cases & deaths, the operative word is “estimated”, ie they don’t know due to lack of testing.
Flu kills hardly anyone directly, it is always the complications that do the killing and that is mostly Pneumonia.
COVID19 also won’t kill many directly it is the Pneumonia, heart failure, organ failure and Sepsis that does the actual killing.

Louis Hunt
Reply to  icisil
April 4, 2020 4:21 pm

How is the mortality data different for this virus than for flu deaths or other pandemics of the past? If the flu pushes the elderly or someone with underlying illnesses over the edge, aren’t their deaths still counted as flu deaths? Often it is impossible to tell if a person with underlying health conditions would have lived longer if not for the viral infection. At any rate, if we are going to compare deaths from the current virus to those of the flu, shouldn’t we count deaths the same way, even if the count isn’t perfect? To change the method now would be like comparing apples to oranges.

Rich Davis
Reply to  icisil
April 4, 2020 6:14 am

Nothing new about Governor Lamont lying. He’s a worthless weasel.

Scissor
Reply to  icisil
April 4, 2020 7:09 am

Once these stories are implanted the emotional response is not easily undone.

And yes, the reliability of data, testing not being done, then testing changing, new testing being added and old testing being discontinued and just biases in general make sorting out what is happening even more difficult.

niceguy
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 5:11 am

“health professionals have recently started a petition”

Health professionals are known to have strong opinions on pretty much everything and to be clueless about… pretty much everything. Including their pretend special expertise topic.

Health professionals that think measles is an horrible, horrible disease… was a joke 30 years ago.

Ron Long
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 5:20 am

M of B, I agree with your analysis and reply here. Remember, China and the WHO were co-conspirators to misinform the world about the China/Wuhan/Covid-19 virus. This was especially egregious as it was not until Jan. 14, 2020 that the human-to-human transmissions was admitted to. My view is that the quarantine is the second best strategy, but if you missed the best it still is adviseable, and this: there is a bad virus on one side a thousands of dedicated medical scientists on the other side, my money is on the medical scientists. Stay safe.

anna v
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 5:29 am

The experiment of Japan is also of interest. They have no lock downs, but a strict observance to mask wearing, and a culture that has cleanliness above everything (shoes are left out of the house), bowing from a distance instead of hugging and kissing, wearing of masks in public. So their numbers are low, they did use isolation of infection locations,people have been taking the crowded subway wearing masks. My country also is low in the numbers, due to taking measures early, before the first victim, and then finding contacts, isolation of villages where there was an accumulation of incidents. We are now in the second week of lockdown, enforced 2 meter isolation, etc. and waiting to see whether it gets better.

The most terrible example was what happened in Lombardy, where the health and funeral systems are overwhelmed, and where doctors had to decide who was put on ventilation and who not. This raises the death rate, because they tend to give the ventilators to younger people, which brings the rate of older deaths to 100%. In addition, all the heart attack people, the motor and other accidents, find no place to a ventilator.

It is a many parameter complicated estimate, imo, to see what the real death rate is. Maybe next year, comparing the total death rate between 1920 and 1919, we will know how many more ( statistically) people died because of the lack of hospital beds and the death and overwork of the health personnel,

The important point is to keep doctors and nurses alive, enough ventilators for everybody that needs them, and lock downs help in that. As also masks for everybody . Maybe if everybody had to wear a mask outside the home, businesses need not have closed, as in Japan.

Scissor
Reply to  anna v
April 4, 2020 7:16 am

Many doctors and nurses in Italy died because of a lack of PPE.

MarkG
Reply to  anna v
April 4, 2020 11:18 am

“This raises the death rate, because they tend to give the ventilators to younger people, which brings the rate of older deaths to 100%.”

The reported death rates around the world of those who had to be put on ventilators are 80-95%. So the odds for old people with underlying conditions surviving after being put on a ventilator are already close to zero.

Richard M
Reply to  anna v
April 4, 2020 11:26 am

Yes, masks, masks and more masks. It’s a double redundancy that is needed with a very infectious disease.

William Astley
Reply to  anna v
April 4, 2020 3:37 pm

Thank-you for your informative comment and the details about how your country is addressing the virus.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 9:04 am

“On the other side are the passivists, who argue that after a few weeks in lockdown people will cease to observe the restrictions”

I see this happening in northwest Washington. The governor has ordered a lockdown, but there is no enforcement, period. Each day for the past week, I’ve seen more and more traffic on the roads as I’m out doing food deliveries.

3x2
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 9:46 am

Using Sweden as a comparison also brings up another issue. Comparing like with like.

Sweden is a land area of 450 km² with 10 million people. England, for example, 130 km² and 56 million people.

It would be logical that measures taken in one country might not be appropriate for another.

Even Italy with a similar population of 60 million but with an area almost twice that of England alone is unlikely to be a good comparison.

Turns out that Italy has some 3x the UK deaths from Influenza in a typical ‘season’. I suspect that this discrepancy is due to ‘social norms’ being significantly different in the two countries.

Richard of NZ
Reply to  3x2
April 4, 2020 12:53 pm

Your calculations of area appear t be a little out. I think that England is a bit larger than 10 km x 13km=130 sq.km.

3x2
Reply to  Richard of NZ
April 6, 2020 3:21 am

Sorry, yes there should be at least three zeros on the end of both numbers !

Michael S. Kelly
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 10:06 am

I’d say that South Korea has more than almost gotten the pandemic under control. I keep track of things partly on this site, which has some pretty decent graphical displays. (Some allow switching between linear and log scales, which is quite useful.)

The South Korea page is the only one I’ve found where the plot of “Active Cases (Number of Infected People)” has a large negative slope. It peaked on March 11 at 7,362 cases, and stood at 3,867 yesterday, April 3. I did a quick trend line, and the slope was -189 active cases per day. If it holds, there will be zero in 20 days, though I rather think there will be more of a tailoff than a straight line to zero (there are still an average of about 90 new cases per day).

This was a great post, Lord Monckton, and I’ll be following it closely. I have just about every risk factor there is to have a bad outcome should I ever become infected, so it’s of more than passing interest to me.

3x2
Reply to  Michael S. Kelly
April 4, 2020 11:09 am

That is what I was ‘worried’ about in comparing one totally different country with another.

Would seem to me that comparing Sweden with England kicks up problems whereas comparing England with S. Korea might have some validity. (S. Korea) 50 million population /100 km² might lead to a more valid comparison of ‘measures’ taken versus outcomes.

Robertvd
Reply to  Rod Evans
April 4, 2020 7:08 am

We had a bubble economy just like in 08 only bigger. That’s why most people have no savings. The Corona crisis is just the pin. Government/ Central Banks only makes it worse.

3x2
Reply to  Robertvd
April 4, 2020 11:25 am

Complete BS.

People might not have savings. But my investments are up a certain creek right now.

The only people that celebrate this fact are stupid lefties that think that two TRILLION dollars is free money. Fu===g Idiot.

Rob_Dawg
April 4, 2020 2:42 am

Seventh paragraph “January 22” should be “February 22” as in subsequent references.

Excellent otherwise.

Now if you could examine the lives lost to severe economic downturns we could compare.

John K. Sutherland
Reply to  Rob_Dawg
April 4, 2020 6:37 am

Ralph Keeney, years ago, estimated that a human life was worth about 3 to 5 million dollars (in the US). Take $5E6 dollar out of the economy and there will be a hypothetical death.

With $1 T gone, that is equivalent to 200,000 ‘deaths’ from economic downturn.

Patrick B
Reply to  John K. Sutherland
April 4, 2020 10:07 am

On a pure economic basis, I question whether an average person’s economic value is anywhere close to that. On top of which almost all the deaths are 60 and over. And it’s not as if we all come out of quarantine and the virus is gone and no one dies. Bottom line is we are killing our economy (and that does result in deaths) for no real benefit.

Damon
April 4, 2020 2:43 am

Epidemics do wane, you know.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Damon
April 4, 2020 3:24 am

In response to Damon, epidemics do wane, but pandemics both more infectious and more fatal than most – and unfortunately the Chinese virus is now known to be both – would kill millions if left unchecked.

niceguy
April 4, 2020 2:43 am

“All four countries show declines in the daily growth rate of confirmed cases.”

It’s a lot like provax propaganda. You show a decrease that started looong before any vaccine were available, and attribute the whole diff to vaccines.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  niceguy
April 4, 2020 3:27 am

In response to niceguy, I merely report the figures. A 19% daily compound growth rate was evident in the world outside China before vigorous public-health measures began to be introduced, and that compound growth rate is now falling. It is falling for a well-understood and blindingly obvious reason: if one interferes decisively enough with the transmission of an infection, the rate of transmission must slow.

It is necessary to see whether or not lockdowns are actually working. On present evidence, they are. If that changes, the daily updates here will reflect that fact.

niceguy
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 3:53 am

Nope. You do vaxxism-like reporting with different number attributed to a cause, which is 100% dishonest. You do report weekly numbers but then you focus on the beginning and end numbers, and attribute the difference to measures.

Also, you failed to explain that for France the numbers don’t include the old people in nursing homes!

“Both Germany and France have done quite well in beginning to control the pandemic.”

Nobody in France believes that. It was pathetic from the start. Complete disorganization, not enough masks, policemen weren’t protected a few days again, we had an half election and many people organizing it became ill, etc. Do you live in another universe?

Richard Barraclough
Reply to  niceguy
April 4, 2020 6:12 am

Have we seriously encountered an anti-vax proponent on this blog? Well, I never!

Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 4, 2020 6:18 am

re: “Have we seriously encountered an anti-vax proponent on this blog?”

You have to cut him some slack; he knows not how to: read, how optimally ‘operate’ a search engine, do research, weigh facts, doesn’t understand stats, trends …

Cube
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 4, 2020 8:08 am

Griff by any other name.

Greg
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 4, 2020 8:08 am

The criticism of CofB presentation is valid, without diverting into a vax flame-war which will go no where. He is also correct about France. Folks in “care” homes are being left quietly die in place instead of being taken to hospital. Whether the best idea or not, it is a terrible testament to state of the health service which, after years of “austerity”, is utter under equipt.

There are many factors which will bend the curve. One is that the number critically weak hosts is decaying rapidly.

If you just look at start and end you can justify any conclusion you like, it’s climatology 101.

If you want to show “not working is working” you need to find a statistically significant change with a timing which matches the time the restrictions were put in place + a few days lag for incubation period.

All CofB has done it claim it is “blindingly obvious” . That is where he started before looking at the data.

He has been quite incisive about claims of linking warming to CO2, it is odd that he lacks the same abilities now.

John Endicott
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 4, 2020 1:23 pm

Have we seriously encountered an anti-vax proponent on this blog?

There’s a couple of anti-vaxxers in these parts, sadly.

niceguy
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 5, 2020 4:49 pm

What the hell is an “anti-vaxxer”?

John Endicott
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 6, 2020 4:03 am

Look in the mirror.

niceguy
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 6, 2020 11:40 am

So antivaxxer means someone who follows evidence, someone rational, honest, and superior to you, NPC?

John Endicott
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 7, 2020 3:04 am

Nope, just the opposite, just as your posts regarding “vaxxism” show you do.

John Endicott
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
April 7, 2020 3:06 am

In otherwords, you can take your anti-vaxxer nonsense elsewhere, as no one here is buying it.

Greg
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 7:50 am

In response to niceguy, I merely report the figures.

two lines later :

It is falling for a well-understood and blindingly obvious reason:

So you are NOT ‘merely reporting the figures’. You are making totally unsubstantiated claims and seem to think you can circumvent proving any linkage because it’s “blindingly obvious”.

What is blindingly obvious is that you had a totally biases position before you looked at the data and then concluded what you set out to prove. You “knew” it worked. This is classic climatology in all its beauty. Well done.

Why not look at the drop in Arctic sea ice in the same period you will find that helped reduce spread of SARS-cov2 as well, by the same method.

For the third time I invite you to find the “blindingly obvious” change in the Italian data.
comment image

Janice Moore
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 10:00 am

+1

Carl Friis-Hansen
April 4, 2020 2:43 am

Here from Sweden.
Although Sweden does not have an official lock-down, we have a partial lock-down on a voluntary bases.
Some large factories are closed for production, like Volvo and Scania. Virtually all assemblies, like local political meetings, are postponed until further notice. Road traffic has fallen dramatically as a lot of business and social events are cancelled.

My point is that Sweden is reality is somewhere in between a lock-down and treating it as a normal flu season. Thus I wonder what the outcome would be over a year, if there was a country where they treated the CoVid-19 as the general family of Corona virus?

I will follow Monckton’s statistics closely the coming weeks.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Carl Friis-Hansen
April 4, 2020 3:31 am

Mr Friis-Hansen is right: Swedes are subject to some largely voluntary restraints on their movements, and that will certainly work better than not having any restraints at all. I included Sweden in the list of 12 territories we shall be monitoring here precisely so as to use it as the reference case for a country that did not follow the optimal, South Korean strategy but did not follow the full-blown lockdown strategy either.

As today’s data will show (and I am hoping to provide the data in graphical as well as tabular form), Sweden is currently unique among the 12 territories we are following, in that its mean daily compound case growth rate is rising rather than falling. On the other side of the account, that growth rate is a lot less than in other countries, for reasons that are not yet clear.

A C Osborn
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 5:45 am

See my comment on Population Density above.

John K. Sutherland
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 6:46 am

M of B. I would be interested in seeing you address Japan. Least intervention, and fewest number of deaths per unit of population.

A C Osborn
Reply to  John K. Sutherland
April 4, 2020 7:06 am

Like other Asian countries that have experienced epidemics recently Japan has extensive, Quarantine, testing, track & trace and isolation units.
They instigated their procedures from day one, not allowing uncontrolled spread so that they did not overwhelm their already extensive health care services.
They have closed their schools.
Unfortunately their case and death rates continue to climb.

However they are not the best, that honour goes to Singapore & Hong Kong.

Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 9:24 am

The problem with this whole analysis is it relies on reported cases, which are a function of the number and type of tests. This point has been well made in a number of places eg https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-. It’s been shown that the proportion of tests coming out positive is not increasing in any country and that the apparent exponential increase in cases is a result of an exponential increase in tests. Any analysis based on reported case figures is therefore fundamentally faulty.

Joel Heinrich
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 1:34 pm

There is no lockdown in Germany either. Retail is closed and most of the service industry, but you can go outside anytime you want. I still am working in an industry production facility (80 employees). It is all just about social distancing and keeping 2m apart. And basically none are wearing masks.

As for your analysis, it would be interesting to see WHEN each country introduced their particular flavour of lockdown.

David Stone
April 4, 2020 2:45 am

An excellent and very interesting analysis Christopher. I live in Bristol UK and find that here there are both not many cases and there are very few people about, almost everyone seems to be following the stay at home message. Watching the TV one sees that may of the people outside are both young and doing sport of some kind, perhaps they consider their own health more than others. The interesting part is that at some point people must begin to move about in larger numbers, and at that point new infections must be expected to rise. If masks actually work (which is a complex question as to whether only droplets or free virus particles can travel in the air, or indeed be produced) then normal fine dust masks (or surgical masks) will work, but with the virus at about 300nm size, any airborne spread will continue. It may be very difficult for the virus to become airborne which is good. We shall have to wait and see.

I see too why your HIV advice was ignored, it is far too far from being PC in today’s political environment, and I completely agree with your points on the “inertia” in the civil service, but it seems much the same everywhere, lets hope for change, at least the PM is doing his best!

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  David Stone
April 4, 2020 3:37 am

Many thanks to Mr Stone for his very kind comments. It is of course particularly difficult for young, vigorous people to be cooped up at home, whereas for us senatorial types a lockdown is far less demanding. One of the reasons why – with our kind host’s kind indulgence – I am producing these daily updates is so that WattsUpWithThat will become the standard reference point for finding out what is really going on, and whether the lockdown measures that young people understandably resent are both necessary and effective.

Mr Stone also raises the question of whether face-marks are a good idea. The South Koreans, who have demonstrated by their actions that they know how to contain pandemics of this kind, state bluntly and clearly that, though masks do not provide perfect protection, they do provide some protection. Indeed, even wearing glasses provides some protection, because it inhibits ingress of the virions into the eyes via the mucous membranes. That is why I wear a full-face motorcycle helmet when out of doors.

Mr Stone also raises what is going to become one of the most interesting points in the current debate: at some point people must begin to move about in large numbers, whereupon infections may begin to rise again. I have the answer to the exit-strategy question, which I shall hope to post later today with today’s update on the figures.

R Taylor
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 6:17 am

I have heard of mild cases of pink-eye that might be caused by the virus, and I suppose if you have the infection in your eyes you might then rub it into your nose or mouth. Has some sort of direct transmission from eyes to lungs been suggested?

Regardless, a home-made multi-layer mask is a practical alternative for the plebs who can’t get purpose-designed masks, and much more obtainable and convenient than a plexiglass shield for indirect protection.

Greg
Reply to  R Taylor
April 4, 2020 9:36 am

if you have the infection in your eyes you might then rub it into your nose or mouth.

No it’s much simpler than that , the virus can be absorbed though the membranes of the eye just as easily. Wear large sunglasses or workshop safety glasses if you still want to run away from infection for the rest of your life.

R Taylor
Reply to  Greg
April 4, 2020 1:10 pm

As I understand it, infection of eyes, ears or GI tract can’t generate the pneumonia that kills COVID victims: You have to go through the nose/mouth to inflame the breathing membranes.

PaulH
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 6:47 am

I look forward to your ideas on an exit strategy. I have yet to see anyone in officialdom present the criteria they will use to relax and/or remove the lockdown.

Greg
Reply to  David Stone
April 4, 2020 9:33 am

If masks actually work (which is a complex question as to whether only droplets or free virus particles can travel in the air, or indeed be produced) then normal fine dust masks (or surgical masks) will work, but with the virus at about 300nm size, any airborne spread will continue.

Sorry that is badly informed. There was never any suggestion that the virus, as 300nm particle floats around in the air. They are contained in aerosols ( from coughing and sneezing ) and droplet of spit people often emit whilst talking. There was much misreporting of an american study which used mechanically produced droplets as a “model” which did not correspond to what is produced by the body, then claimed they could last for several days carrying the virus in the air.

kendo2016
April 4, 2020 2:48 am

Having followed the corona story , i have read online that the World Health organisation publication ( google sars epidemic2003),that since the 2003 epidemic,it is’ admitted ‘that there have been a small number of outbreak cases as a result of ‘laboratory accidents’!! ???
Who is to say that this outbreak is not due to the same cause .As is known there is a bio research lab in the Wuhan area.
Question ; why is this virus in a bioresearch lab, is it being modified in some way.?& for what purpose’.?
will we ever know for sure ?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  kendo2016
April 4, 2020 2:59 am

Bioweapon test run?

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
April 4, 2020 3:42 am

Chaswarnertoo is not right that the Chinese virus is a bioweapon test run. I have studied its genome, and it is 80% identical to other coronaviridae originating in bats, which live in very large, crowded colonies and are thus prone to infections. It is likely that the virus passed from a bat either to a snake or to a pangolin that was kept live in the squalid open food market in Wuhan to which the Chinese public-health contact-tracers were led.

The real problem is the weaponization of the World Health Organization, whose current director was China’s candidate for the post. The WHO must share with its close ally the unspeakable Chinese Communist regime in Peking the blame for the present pandemic.

Vuk
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 5:50 am

I’m not sure that 80% identical in genome code would prove anything.
My carpet is 80% natural wool and 20% synthetic man-made fibre, OK my carpet is not a virus, but biotechnology has moved forward in the recent years.
“A genetically modified virus is a virus that has been altered or generated using biotechnology methods, and remains capable of infection. Genetic modification involves the directed insertion, deletion, artificial synthesis or change of nucleotide bases in viral genomes.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetically_modified_virus

Foley Hund
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 8:02 am

Absolutely correct! Changing one gene is all that is necessary, such as recessive versa dominant. Hairy knuckles, attached ear lobes, et cetera.

Greg
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 10:00 am

Yes 80% is a huge difference, not a “nearly the same”. We only differ by about 1.2% from chimps.

Once again CofB has his a priori position he wants to push and fits the facts to it.

I have studied its genome, and it is 80% identical to other coronaviridae originating in bats, which live in very large, crowded colonies and are thus prone to infections.

If someone working a biolab wanted to make a weaponised virus they will not start from scratch . They will get a known virulent form of virus and tweak one protein to make it attach to say the ACE2 receptor in the human lung. If the lab was near a broad stock of mammalian samples at a nearby “wet market”, that would be a very obvious place to look for samples. They would doubtless know that bats were a perfect natural reservoir of candidate virus genes.

The result would be 99.99999% like the original .

The more the viscount posts, the more he reveals about the agenda he is pumping. Don’t forget he was close to cabinet level in Thatcher’s Conservative govt and is presumably still close to those in the same party now in government and “the Lords” and enforcing lockdown on the population.

That may explain the apparent absence of the sharp critical analysis he has made in the past about AGW which gained him much renown here.

If it was a leak from the Wuhan P4 lab this would explain the initial attempts at a cover up by the Chinese authorities. There would seem little point in arresting and silencing doctors warning of a new kind of flu unless there was something about that knew already and needed to hide.

That is circumstantial but does seem to point to a leak as being the origin. As do all the convoluted attempts are providing a natural game of genetic hopscotch from bats to pangolin to human.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 10:03 am

Frog DNA is about 80% similar to humans…..

Greg
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 1:49 pm

Thanks DMacKenzie, I was looking for such an example and could not find one readily. Well done.

Sommer
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 1:13 pm

The conversation about weaponized viruses must be brought into the public domain.
Why on earth would we ever need bioweapons?

bonbon
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
April 4, 2020 10:29 am

Tell that to the US Navy who just fired the Commanding, officer Crozier of the USS Theodore Roosevelt for noting that the country is not at war and the crew was at high risk. Modly’s explanation? “While we may not be at war in a traditional sense, neither are we truly at peace. ”

Geopolitical games ahead of crew health, anyone?

TEWS_Pilot
Reply to  bonbon
April 4, 2020 10:40 am

Geopolitical games ahead of crew health, anyone?

With all due respect, he was fired for contacting the MEDIA and disclosing the war-readiness status and location and a number of other bits of CLASSIFIED information about a US Aircraft Carrier and going outside channels with his disclosures rather than going up channel as regulations require. He was also fired for exercising extremely poor judgment by allowing his crew to go ashore in Vietnam during a PANDEMIC where cases of the Chi-Com Kung Flu Manchu had been reported….and several other legitimate reasons. The Secretary of the Navy stated publicly that he had lost confidence in the ship’s commanding officer.

William Astley
Reply to  bonbon
April 4, 2020 2:59 pm

bonbon,

There were 47 case of the virus in Vietnam at the time the US aircraft carrier got supplies from Vietnam.

What are the odds the virus just happened to be on the Vietnam supplies that were brought onto the US aircraft carrier? Is deliberately spreading the virus onto a aircraft carrier an act of war?

China has weaponized the South ‘China’ sea and has militarized the South ‘China’ sea air space. That is sort of an act of war if any other country did it.

We have appeased China, just like we appeased Germany a long time ago. We allowed them to economically bully every small country, to get what.

The US is capable of doing just what China is doing. It does not. It plays fair, or reasonably fair. We absolutely never threaten democratic countries with military force to get what we want. We have the rule of law. That was not always true. The US changed.

China has dominated world trade to the point that we can no longer manufacture items in our own country. That is sort like economic war which we lost.

China is different the our countries. We have checks and balances and elections. They do not.
In the Chinese system a group with bad intentions can get power.

KcTaz
Reply to  bonbon
April 4, 2020 4:46 pm

bonbon

The Navy had very good reasons to fire the guy.

Guam was none too happy about his plans to put sailors from an infected ship up in hotels on Guam which use locals, of course, for cleaning, maintenance etc., has few resources to combat a pandemic which they were already fighting and, to complicate things further, Guam is in the middle of nowhere and all supplies must come by plane or boat. They don’t have factories making drugs or medical equipment on Guam.

Anger in Guam over plan to offload US sailors
http://a.msn.com/01/en-us/BB123sHb?ocid=st2

And they had other good reasons, as well.

‘Sailors Do Not Need to Die’: Carrier Captain Pleads for Help as Virus Cases Surge
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/03/31/sailors-do-not-need-die-carrier-captain-pleads-help-virus-cases-surge.html

…The Navy’s top leaders said last week that all members of the carrier Roosevelt’s crew would be tested for COVID-19. The first cases emerged after the ship made a port call in Vietnam in early March, despite warnings that the virus was likely to sweep through the Asia-Pacific region.
Sailors left the ship for receptions, sports competitions and other events.

Navy fires aircraft carrier captain after public mayday for his COVID-stricken sailors
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/2/brett-crozier-uss-theodore-roosevelt-captain-be-re/

…He specifically said the letter could send the wrong signal to U.S. enemies that the Navy is unequipped and unable to meet its duties.
“We require our commanders [to act] with judgment, maturity and leadership, composure under pressure, to understand the ramifications of their actions within that larger dynamic strategic context,” Mr. Modly said. “To allow those emotions to color our judgment when communicating the current operational picture can at best create unnecessary confusion and at worst provide an incomplete picture of American combat readiness to our adversaries.”
“When the commanding officer of the USS Teddy Roosevelt decided to write his letter the Department of the Navy had already mobilized significant resources for days in response to his previous requests. On the same day marked on his letter, my chief of staff called [Capt. Crozier] directly at my direction to ensure he had all the necessary resources for the health and safety of his crew.”

In addition, the Commander used a non-secure channel to send his email and cc’d 19 other people quite guaranteeing it would be leaked! The letter was first published in his hometown newspaper which is quite interesting. How did it get from the Dept. of the Navy to his hometown newspaper?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  KcTaz
April 4, 2020 7:50 pm

“‘Sailors Do Not Need to Die’: Carrier Captain Pleads for Help as Virus Cases Surge

This captain was a real idiot. It’s not very smart to imply that your superior officers are derelict in their duties, and are not doing all they can to protect their sailors from the Wuhan virus, and it is especially dumb to do so in a letter you leak to your hometown newspaper. I see where the news media is trying to make the captain out to be a victim but he deserved what he got. He brought it on himself.

The captain should have been sacked for lack of common sense and should never get another command.

Greg
Reply to  Vuk
April 4, 2020 2:00 pm

The team engineered a hybrid virus, combining a bat coronavirus with a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and mimic human disease. The hybrid virus was able to infect human cells

Now a leak of THAT would be sufficient cause for the chinese govt. to arrest and silence any doctor saying there was a new strain of flu going around.

Such actions would not make sense if it was just a natural mutation. Flu virus is always evolving.

My gut feel as soon as I heard about the presence of a biolab near the market was that this was a leak but this makes it more than a hunch.

Thanks for the link.

There was some French govt. document proudly announcing a collaboration with the Pasteur Institute in making a modern grade 4 lab in Wuhan. The French govt. put quite a bit of money into it. I think it was only completed in 2017, do you know if that is the same facility.

Scissor
Reply to  kendo2016
April 4, 2020 7:52 am

Laboratory accidents are consistent with the credible information presented in the following.

William Astley
Reply to  Scissor
April 4, 2020 10:45 am

The public available information that you provide is compelling.

The facts are the Wuhan lab was investigating and taking samples of bats, they had a job posting for someone with experience in that area.

There is a posting that the researchers got bat pee on them when they were taking samples.

The lead Wuhan bat researcher has disappeared. Prior to her disappearance the lab in question posted another job opening for someone with experience in working with viruses.

I like the idea that this was an accident.

Large non-democratic countries can become dangerous. The problem is they do not have the checks and balances which stop evil things from happening. The problem becomes more dangerous with technology and lots of money. China has been very aggressive in the South ‘China’ sea and has been very aggressive publically.

There is talk now of a power struggle going on in China. Have you heard anything?

In times of a power struggle, there is a worry one fraction will try to start something to gain power.

Robert of Texas
Reply to  kendo2016
April 4, 2020 11:10 am

It is very unlikely to be a bio-weapon for many reasons:
1) It is uncontrollable – it would harm the attacker’s population as much as the attacked population over time – UNLESS one had developed a vaccine and secretly distributed it without one’s own country. Keeping such a program a secret would be very difficult as side effects would lead to curiosity and someone would detect the antibodies.
2) There is NO evidence of genome tampering. The virus appears very much like those occurring in bats already indigenous to the are (Asia). Bats have a ramped-up immune system so any virus that infects them has to be super-charged in it’s ability to spread. This unfortunately leads to its high infectious rate if it can successfully leap to another species.
3) There is no evidence that China already had this genome mapped out, or a prepared antibody test. They were caught flat-footed (so to speak).

One could I think make a reasonable argument that the Chinese might have been studying the virus to understand how potentially dangerous it was to their population and it “broke out” of containment – but using Occam’s Razor one is lead to conclude the most likely source was a food market where exotic animals were being sold for food. It is almost a certainty the source was a bat.

William Astley
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 4, 2020 12:50 pm

Hi Robert. If you would like to discuss further please go the China is hiding and lying about the covid cases and deaths, thread.

I agree, as the Wuhan researcher who had the nickname the ‘bat lady’ because of all the work that she did with bats, has disappeared….

… and the covid virus is a combination of a bat virus and flu virus

… there must be a reason why she disappeared and why China is lying about the number of cases and deaths.

What I do not understand, is why the information concerning the bat lady, her picture on the Wuhan lab web site has been removed, while her name is left on the web site.

This looks like an effort to leave the key information to create a story… Could it just
be incompetence on the standpoint of the Chinese censors?

Also the all powerful Chinese censors left a blog entry about the researchers getting sprayed with bat pee, on the web site. Same question.

In clandestine work, obviously it is necessary to create a very, convincing fake answer, when there is something that absolutely must be hidden.

We also know the release of the virus was at a time when Trump was being attacked and was distracted. In the fall, some might have thought he would be forced to resign, for investigating corruption in the democratic party.

The second thing we know, this sudden stoppage of the entire world economy has resulted in the collapse oil prices.

China is a net winner. They get low price oil and the US shale oil industry goes bankrupt. This effect would have been easy to predicted. Also I think our slow response to isolate and wear mask could have been predicted.

I am not saying you are incorrect, however, there is new technology ‘synthetic’ engineering whose goal is to make microbiological components, including viruses. China bought and stole this technology from the US.

KcTaz
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 4, 2020 5:01 pm

Robert,

It’s happened before. The virus being Made in China does not mean the Chinese intended to use it now. They’ve had viruses escape before.

EXCLUSIVE: Coronavirus Expert Says Virus Could Have Leaked From Wuhan Lab
https://bit.ly/2UYqbtp

April 02, 2020
* Richard H. Ebright, a molecular biologist who has been quoted as a coronavirus expert by The Washington Post and MSNBC, said Thursday that it’s possible that COVID-19 leaked from a Wuhan lab.
…The researchers also cited testimonies from nearly 60 people who lived in or visited Wuhan saying that the bat “was never a food source in the city, and no bat was traded in the market.”
…The SARS virus escaped twice from the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing in 2004, one year after the virus was initially contained…
_________
I don’t know what happened but the thing is well worthy of our suspicions, especially, given China’s many attempts to cover it up and their multiple lies..

William Astley
Reply to  KcTaz
April 4, 2020 9:15 pm

Covid-19 Natural or Man Made?

Is it possible in a laboratory to make the covid-19 virus? Yes

Yes, there are two countries in the world that I know that have the new, new technology, which is called ‘synthetic’ bioengineering to make any virus, including the virus we called covid-19 synthetically

The US and China

Probability that the US made and distributed the covid-19 virus – 0%

It is not possible because of the US checks and balances to make and distributed a deadly virus and to attack China without congressional notification.

Distributed Bio is the US company that now has a computer map of covid virus. They have made synthetic copies of the covid-19 virus.

Distributed Bio is the company in the Netflix documentary pandemic.

Distributed Bio is currently working with the US military and the Bill Gates foundation to develop an antibody to save us from what appears to be a man-made virus.

What is the probability that covid-19 occurred naturally?

It is very improbable that the most contagious part of a flu virus happens to attach to a bat virus.

We know this is a low probability event as the last pandemic was a 100 years ago.

I will get this probability calculated by the US company that has the code for the covid-19 virus.

Hi KcTaz,

What is the probability that the Wuhan lab and the bat lady researcher who works at the Wuhan lab is a fake story? 100%.

There is evidence that the virus is man-made.

China is the only country that could use synthetic engineering to create the virus. A

China is the only country that could distribute a fake video story in China.

The fake video tells a story of a Wuhan lab that where there was a lady that did so much work with bats that she was called that bat lady.

… and the bat lady has disappeared.
… and the Wuhan lab was looking for someone with experience to work with deadly viruses.

blah, blah, blah…

The Wuhan lab and the lady with bats, is a fake story that was planted as a cover.

The so-called lab that is shown in the video map with an arrow to the raw live food market, is really a warehouse.

The actual Wuhan laboratory is located in a different part of town.

There are other obvious faults in the fake story.

Patrick MJD
April 4, 2020 2:50 am

Not necessary! People are too stoopid these days and only accept what is streamed to them on their smart phones. Gullible beyond gullible!

George Tetley
April 4, 2020 2:53 am

Once again you have shown your worth as a “benchmark ” of human understanding, thanking you for your services to us all, especially the uneducated such as myself
George

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  George Tetley
April 4, 2020 3:43 am

Many thanks to Mr Tetley for his kind comments. It will be interesting to follow the benchmark test over the vital coming weeks. With luck, the world will buy itself just enough time to increase testing to the point where the infection can be contained without lockdowns.

Rune Valaker
April 4, 2020 2:56 am

Why not look at the figures from Norway, we had a lockdown three weeks ago. Gradually from March 11, from March 13, all schools, gyms, theaters, hair dressers etc. were closed. We have a population of approx. 5.4 mill., Per April 2, 101,000 tests were performed (highest pr. capita besides Bahrein), total deaths are approx. 60 and new cases have been stable at around 2 – 300 pr. day for some days now. The need for i hospital beds has leveled out to around 300 – 350, approx. 100 of these with ventilators. But this is only the beginning, the stupidest thing we do now is to lower the guard.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Rune Valaker
April 4, 2020 3:45 am

I am most grateful to Rune Valaker for his comments about Norway, which has indeed followed an exemplary strategy in recent weeks. I shall see whether I can add Norway to the list of countries we monitor here.

Rune Valaker
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 5:01 am

Thanks, her You have a good source (Norwegian only but You will figure it out.) The newspaper Verdens Gang has a team that is working 24/7 to collect all information on new cases etc:

https://www.vg.no/spesial/2020/corona/?utm_source=coronav

innlagte = hospitalized
På respirator = on ventilator
Sykehus­ans. smittet = health care people infected
Sykehus­ans. i karantene = health care people in quarantine

Peter
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 9:53 am

Just for comparison, Slovakia, same as Norway, 5.5 million, first case 6th of March. Partial voluntary lockdown from the start, very similar to Norway. Similar influx of infected skiers from Italy, Austria as Norway, BUT:
Face masks mandatory from 12th of March!
Result is only 470 positive in country, 70 in hospital beds and 3 in ICU, 1 dead. Currently around 22 new cases daily after month from pandemic start.

Richard M
Reply to  Peter
April 4, 2020 11:35 am

Mask, masks, masks …. The world needs billions of masks.

Then people can eventually go back to work without creating a 2nd wave.

Peter
Reply to  Richard M
April 4, 2020 12:25 pm

It takes around hour to create face mask from your old t-shirt with scissors, needle and threat.
You mourn SARS 1 same way? Because whole world does not have immunity?

Björn
Reply to  Rune Valaker
April 4, 2020 5:51 am

Just a small correction , neither Bahrein nor Norway , your 101000 tests out of 5.4 million people amounts to little under 1.9 % of the total populuation or c.a 19000 per 1 million heads, the same number for Iceland stood somewhere between 28+ to 33 thousand per million (10400 to 12000 actual tests out of 362000 resident population).
See link below for confirmation of the lower number, exact figure for the higher number are somewhat harder to find and i have not found a resent verifiable number for it , but verified cases here were 1395 at april 2th and only 92 came from the tests done so far in the general population screening of 10400 done outside of the screenings done at health care institutes or centers.
https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/icelands-coronavirus-testing-global-pandemic-response/

Rune Valaker
Reply to  Björn
April 4, 2020 10:05 am

You’re probably right. Iceland is a special case as there is a company that has mapped the entire Icelandic people’s DNA profile and which has an extreme test capacity. They also conducted two random tests on the population to find out how many are infected, I do not have this data available. In Norway, the authorities have conducted a kind of semi-procedure, only those who are feared infected have been tested, but all who have asked to be tested have largely been tested. As of today, approx. 5% of those tested have been positive. It increased from approx. 4% two weeks ago, then up to 5%, recent days show a decline.

Dwestall
Reply to  Rune Valaker
April 4, 2020 1:03 pm

The data is available on covid.is/data

Dwestall
Reply to  Rune Valaker
April 4, 2020 9:28 am

Norway isn’t even close in terms of testing. Iceland has tested over 5% of their population and over half of those tests have purposely been of asymptomatic people (not quite random but much better than any other country by far) not just testing of people who have symptoms or have been exposed. They have steadily been identifying that around 0.8% of just regular folks test positive over the last month. All of their data is freely available on their ministry of healths page. They also have no serious lockdowns going. Just quarantine s of positives and exposures. Iceland and the diamond princess data sets are the best out there by a significant margin.

Rune Valaker
Reply to  Dwestall
April 4, 2020 10:07 am

See my answer above.

Chaswarnertoo
April 4, 2020 2:57 am

My lord, once again I respectfully disagree. HIV ( without treatment) is far more lethal than Kung flu.
Willing to concede on Charney sensitivity of 0.85 or less yet?

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
April 4, 2020 3:49 am

In response to Chaswarnertoo, the lethality of any infection is a function not only of the ratio of deaths to infections but also of the period between infection and eventual death, which, with HIV, is typically some decades, while, with kung flu, it is some days.

If my team are right that on correcting the official error in the definition of temperature feedback the Charney sensitivity is around 1.2-1.8 K, and if Dr Happer is right that the reference sensitivity (before feedback) is 0.6 K, then Charney sensitivity is indeed about 0.85 K. But merely asserting that that is the value will not do. It is necessary to prove it.

A C Osborn
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
April 4, 2020 5:54 am

Overall Lethality must also include infectiousness, HIV requires very close intimate contact, COVID19 does not.

Peter R Blower
April 4, 2020 2:59 am

Christopher, Your analyses are always welcome, thought-provoking and original.
However, would you care to comment on the situation in Switzerland, where the testing rate has been very high (twice that of Soth Korea), plenty of reserve hospital beds (thanks to Cold War preparedness) but number of cases and the mortality per million of population remain stubbornly high (source Worldometer) ?
Further, ‘activist’s’ models have concentrated on acute mortality but have not modelled lockdown-release, health outcomes and longer economic consequences, whereas Prof Thomas’s (Bristol University) model suggests long-term deaths follow the pandemic/depression and fall on the poor of Western societies at close to the acute death toll (UK: 510K deaths vs 460K deaths). Can we be sure that we are not just exchanging today’s problem of the elderly for tomorrows problem of the young (at the cost of the economy) ? Regards, Peter

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Peter R Blower
April 4, 2020 3:07 am

See Japan. No lockdown, just travel testing and isolation, plus masks. Seems to work best. Milord has done some good work, here, though.

Warren
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
April 4, 2020 3:51 am

+ Japs remove footwear before entering their home. Supermarket floors are virus concentration zones.

Joel Heinrich
Reply to  Warren
April 4, 2020 1:50 pm

that’s pretty widespread in Germany and Switzerland, too.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Peter R Blower
April 4, 2020 4:00 am

Many thanks to Mr Blower for packing an enormous number of interesting points into a commendably concise comment.

It is indeed most useful that Worldometers (whose statistics are the source for my own calculations) are now reporting the percentages of population tested. I suspect that the reason why Switzerland has been less successful than South Korea is that it was nothing like as quick as South Korea in swinging into action with its testing regime. As the South Korean expert has made plain (he is just about the only expert talking any sense about this pandemic), it is not merely days that count. Hours count. The sooner one starts the testing and contact-tracing regime, and the more firmly one isolates all carriers, the less testing is required to maintain a low infection rate.

The point here is that Western countries, whose governing class is almost entirely innumerate, simply did not understand the most elementary mathematics that underlie any pandemic: namely, that in the early stages of the pandemic the logistic and exponential curves are identical. For proof that the governing class is innumerate, look at how many governments fell for the global warming nonsense.

You raise an interesting point about the economy. But we are not ready to address that question yet. Because Western governments – particularly Britain and the United States – did not take determined action to test and to isolate and to contact-trace at the very earliest stage, there has been and will continue to be large loss of life in the coming weeks, because although the lockdowns are already bringing down the daily compound case growth rate there is a three-week delay between infection and death, so that there will be a three-week delay in bringing down the numbers of deaths.

Underlying Mr Blower’s comment lurks the wider question of the exit strategy. Supposing that lockdowns do indeed do their job, how can we come out of the lockdowns without a second wave of infection, and without having so bankrupted the economy that young people are left on the scrapheap of unemployment?

I shall hope to outline the exit strategy in today’s posting. And in later postings I shall consider the economic question. Just one pointer, though, on the economic front. There is an important difference between the economic cost of warfare and the economic cost of a pandemic. Both kill in large numbers, but the latter leaves the global capital stock undamaged. So restarting the economy can be quite quick. I have done a lot of thinking in this area, for I have long foreseen what is now occurring, and I shall be setting out some methods that governments will not necessarily have thought of yet.

A C Osborn
Reply to  Peter R Blower
April 4, 2020 6:01 am

Again, Switzerland has a high population density at 219 per square Km, so very easy for the virus to spread.

Rich Davis
Reply to  A C Osborn
April 4, 2020 6:37 am

Uh huh, so Japan at 336/km2 shows that there’s an inverse correlation between infection rate and population density I reckon.

Let’s admit that there are unknown factors in play.