Guest “counter-hyping” by David Middleton
The stock market plunge of the past few days has largely been triggered by the rather modest spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) out of China. Unfortunately this serious epidemic has been hyped by the media and politicians, particularly Democrats. The purpose of the hyping clearly has been to accomplish what neither Hillary Clinton, Robert Mueller or Adam Schiff could do…
5 Ways a Coronavirus Pandemic Could Change the 2020 Election
By Eric LevitzDonald Trump is not known for downplaying foreign threats. And yet, as the Wuhan coronavirus triggered quarantines throughout China, moved into South Korea, Italy, the United States, and at least 36 other countries — while throttling global supply chains and depressing foreign markets — the fearmonger-in-chief remained sanguine. At the World Economic Forum in late January, Trump assured the gathered plutocrats that the virus was “under control.” Three weeks, hundreds of deaths, and one giant stock market plunge later, the president’s song remained the same.
“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA,” Trump tweeted Monday. “We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
The source of Trump’s uncharacteristic reluctance to talk up a border-crossing menace to American public safety isn’t hard to discern.
[…]
New York Magazine
After idiotically describing a virus as a “border-crossing menace to American public safety,” Mr. Levitz lays out his list:
- “The pandemic could sicken the economy, thereby sending the Trump presidency to an early grave.”
- “The pandemic could throw a spotlight on the Trump administration’s criminal negligence.”
- “Alternatively, the virus just might deliver Trump a perfectly timed economic boost that all but guarantees his reelection.”
- “The pandemic could lend credence to Trump’s anti-globalist worldview.”
- “When socialism comes to America, it may be wrapped in a respirator mask and carrying tissues.”
Mr. Levitz discounts #3 as “less likely today than it did two weeks ago”… And never explains why. He never actually even tries to explain #4. He expounds at great length how Socialism will save us from President Trump’s recession and criminal negligence. Mr. Levitz has a BA in creative writing and an MA in fiction writing.
The Counter-Hyping of COVID-19
I ran across a great article from Fisher Investments the other day:
Market Analysis
As the Big Stories Churn
Headlines jump from story to story. Reacting to the latest could be an investing mistake.
By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, 02/21/2020We aren’t even two months into 2020, yet many pundits believe the Wuhan coronavirus will make the global expansion gravely ill. Some have already started slashing market forecasts for the year. Frequent MarketMinder readers likely already know we think fears over the virus’s market impact are overdone. But to us, they are part of a longer-running pattern prevalent throughout this bull market. As soon as one huge story fades, another pops up—like a less-fun game of Whac-A-Mole. Here is a look back at some of the fleeting frenzies that came and went over the past 11 years. In our view, the collection tells a simple tale: Investors are better off tuning out the noise rather than reacting to The Next Big Story.
We don’t have to go back far to see this Big Story headline churn. US-Iran tensions dominated headlines at 2020’s start, sparking World War III warnings. Those fears virtually vanished by mid-January, just in time for coverage to flip to the coronavirus. Similarly, while global equities enjoyed their best year in a decade in 2019, the year featured plenty of Big Stories—some scary-ish, others supposedly monumental for investors.
Remember when the US yield curve flattened—and then inverted—last summer, prompting recession forecasts that didn’t come to fruition? When the yield curve “un-inverted” in early October, far fewer trumpeted the news. Earlier in 2019, Vermont Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders introduced Medicare for All legislation—gobbling up news coverage. A few other Democratic candidates backed it, too. Health Care stocks reacted negatively to fears of quasi-nationalization in the short term, plunging almost -5% in three days.[i] But that hype passed. Health Care ended the year strong, trailing only Technology in Q4. You could say the same of value stocks’ brief burst of outperformance in September. Headlines were sure it was a huge rotation after years of value lagging. It came and went in a month’s time.
Headlines didn’t hype only scary stories. They also heralded allegedly paradigm-shifting developments. One huge social media company—backed by a number of prominent financial services and payment providers—unveiled plans to release a cryptocurrency named for an astrological sign that isn’t Gemini and rhymes with shmeebra. Some predicted this foray would make digital currencies mainstream, with regulators reportedly worried of potential fallout. Congresspeople got worried and asked incomprehensible questions. Since that announcement, the hype has evaporated and many partners have quietly dropped their support.
You can find myriad examples of Big Stories that were supposed to either impact stock returns or represent a landmark market shift. Instead of altering the investing landscape, they simply fell out of the news cycle as headlines churned onto something else.
[…]
Fisher Investments
The article details the litany of media-hyped crises that were sure to crater the bull market, trigger a recession and enable Comrade Bernie Sanders to finally Make America the Soviet Union Again. None of these CNN/WaPo/MSLSD/NYT fantasies had any legs. The market experienced short-term sell-offs and then marched on.
Market Volatility
Thoughts on a Rocky Monday
Monday’s volatility isn’t a call to action, in our view.
By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, 02/24/2020US and global stocks started this week on a sour note, as fears over the coronavirus’s spread into South Korea and Italy shook sentiment. The S&P 500 finished Monday down -3.4%, with most overseas markets similarly weak.[i] Coverage of the disease leads virtually every financial news website, which are also teeming with analyses from economists, politicians, analysts and pundits. Generally, their take is negative, operating on the assumption markets are just now catching on to the coronavirus’s potential fallout—and arguing more downside lies ahead. But this rocky Monday doesn’t change our view: Sentiment swings can always hit stocks short term, but the coronavirus is highly unlikely to upend this bull market.
First, some perspective seems in order. While Monday’s swings were large, it is worth remembering that the S&P 500 stood at all-time highs last Wednesday.[ii] Global stocks? Eight trading days ago (February 12).[iii] Since their respective high-water marks, US and world stocks are down a little over -4% each. That is the definition of a short-term dip—of which there have been dozens during the nearly 11-year old bull market that began in March 2009. For example: Last year had two nearly -6% downdrafts (April 30 – June 3 and July 24 – August 15) and one very similar to today’s size in September.[iv] We aren’t suggesting you should anticipate 2019’s hugely positive returns this year, just that even in great years, short-term volatility is normal.
[…]
Fisher Investments
It seems to me that the mainstream lamestream news media have been on a mission to undercut the America’s confidence and faith in itself since the Vietnam War. The Coronavirus hype is very much like the climate change hype, the war with [fill in the blank] hype, the Russia nothing burger hype, the Ukraine nothing burger hype, etc.
Don’t get me wrong, COVID-19 is very serious. It will ultimately kill thousands of people, maybe tens of thousands. It is a dangerous epidemic, if not already a pandemic. But the market’s reaction to it this week has been seriously overblown… And much of the “credit” lies with the lamestream media, who seem to be wishing for a COVID-19 recession.
While the danger is far from over, COVID-19 clearly does appear to have peaked.
Stay Invested, It’s Not Time to Fear the Coronavirus
By Brian Wesbury & Robert Stein
February 25, 2020Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% – the largest daily declines in two years. These drops wiped out all the gains for the year.
Frankly, it’s amazing to us that the market had been so resilient! Maybe it’s because recent history with stocks and viruses is that markets overreact leading to significant buying opportunities along the way. Over a 38-day trading period during the height of the SARS virus back in 2003, the S&P 500 index fell by 12.8%. During the Zika virus, which occurred at the end of 2015 and into 2016 the market fell by 12.9%. There are other examples, but they all passed, and the market recovered and hit new highs.
Will this happen again? Our view is that it is highly probable.
[…]
Much of the pessimism surrounding the virus focuses on the Chinese under-counting the number of infected to save face. However, it’s important to note that a shortage of specialized test kits has caused health officials in many countries to rely on observable symptoms for diagnoses, and because coronavirus mimics the flu and pneumonia in its early stages, it’s also possible that authorities may be over-counting as well.
Instead of looking at it from a total confirmed case perspective, we think the number of total active cases provides a better look into what is happening. This measure takes total confirmed cases and subtracts deaths and recoveries. This gives the total amount of people who have the potential to spread the virus further.
According to Worldometer, which aggregates statistics from health agencies across the world, total active cases peaked about a week ago at 58,747 and have since been declining. Even with all the new cases we are seeing in South Korea, Italy and Iran (where data is suspect). There have been 30,597 cases with an outcome (2,699 deaths and 27,898 recovered). In other words, the total active cases now stand at 49,923, a drop of 15% from the peak on February 17th.
[…]
Real Clear Markets
While vigilance remains essential, hype doesn’t help.
Toning down the 2019-nCoV media hype—and restoring hope
Giuseppe Ippolito
David S Hui
Francine Ntoumi
Markus Maeurer
Alimuddin Zumla
Published:February 12, 2020As the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak has revealed, the world has become increasingly susceptible to the emergence and outbreaks of new and re-emerging infectious diseases that can spread quickly due to the rapid movement of people globally.1 The appearance of a new infectious disease with pandemic potential usually ignites serious cross-cutting media, as well as scientific and political debate.2, 3 The events surrounding the 2019-nCoV are no different, and for the past 5 weeks, 2019-nCoV has captured global media, political, and scientific attention.4, 5
[…]
The balance between providing the information required for appropriate actions in response to risk and providing information that fuels inappropriate actions is delicate. The global media response to 2019-nCoV remains unbalanced, largely due to the continuously evolving developments and, as a result, public perception of risk remains exaggerated.The many unknown factors surrounding the virus are likely to lead to further media hype and aberrant public response. For example, the number of people who travelled to and from Wuhan before travel restrictions and the lockdown were put in place, how many of these individuals were asymptomatic or were incubating the virus, and whether screening and current control measures will be effective, are all unknowns.
As of Feb 10, 37 558 cases were confirmed, and 812 deaths had been reported to the WHO. Outside of China, 307 cases had been detected in 24 countries.6 Therefore, although several hundreds of patients remain in intensive care, the overall hospital fatality rate remains at 2%. Therefore, it is time to reduce the hype and hysteria surrounding the 2019-nCoV epidemic and reduce sensationalisation of new information, especially on social media, where many outlets aim to grab attention from followers. Additionally, the disparity between the strength of language as presented to the media by some researchers and politicians and the inference shared on social media requires more research to determine how content is being relayed on different platforms.
An effective way of putting this outbreak into perspective is to compare it with other respiratory tract infections with epidemic potential. 2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses. There is currently no evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads more rapidly than influenza or has a higher mortality rate.
The media should focus on having altruistic intentions and develop dialogue with the appropriate authorities to protect global health security through effective amiable partnerships. They should highlight vaccine development efforts as well as educational and public health measures that are being put in place to prevent the spread of infection. Although there are many things to still learn regarding how best to respond to disease outbreaks of this nature,7 there are also several positives, such as diagnostics tests being developed within 2 weeks and rolled out globally or the rapid garnering of financial support for vaccine development, which should perhaps be in the headlines, to fuel reassurance rather than fear.
The Lancet
Today’s CDC media briefing presented the facts very well… The media coverage, not so much… “Americans should prepare for coronavirus crisis in U.S., CDC says”… Having just listened to the briefing, I’m fairly certain that the word “crisis” was never used, nor does it appear in the transcript.
This is from the CDC’s most recent situation summary:
Situation in U.S.
Imported cases of COVID-19 in travelers have been detected in the U.S. Person-to-person spread of COVID-19 also has been seen among close contacts of returned travelers from Wuhan, but at this time, this virus is NOT currently spreading in the community in the United States.[…]
Risk Assessment
Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications). The fact that this disease has caused illness, including illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread is concerning. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic. As community spread is detected in more and more countries, the world moves closer toward meeting the third criteria, worldwide spread of the new virus.The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States.
But individual risk is dependent on exposure.
For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.
*Under current circumstances, certain people will have an increased risk of infection, for example healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 and other close contacts of persons with COVID-19. CDC has developed guidance to help in the risk assessment and management of people with potential exposures to COVID-19.
*However, it’s important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. In that case, the risk assessment would be different.What May Happen
More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.[…]
CDC
The CDC said that they expect to see some community spreading of the disease in the US at some point in time. They didn’t say this:
Top U.S. public health officials said Tuesday that Americans should prepare for the spread of the coronavirus in communities across the country.
NBC News
A community-acquired infection simply means that it can be acquired from a community. Infections among people who did not travel to the Wuhan area or have direct contact with people who acquired it there, are community-acquired infections. The CDC said that they expect that there will be some community spreading of COVID-19 in the US at some point in the future… But that they could not predict when or how severe. They did not say “that Americans should prepare for the spread of the coronavirus in communities across the country.” They said that people should prepare for telecommuting, teleschooling and taking other measures to limit contact with large groups of other people, if possible, in the event there is an outbreak in their community.
Politicizing COVID-19
The hyping and politicization of COVID-19 by Democrats has been particularly disgusting:
Schumer Blasts President Trump For Lack Of Leadership & Lack Of Plan To Address Spread Of Coronavirus
February 24, 2020
Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer today spoke on the Senate floor regarding the Trump administration’s response to the spread of Coronavirus. Below are Senator Schumer’s remarks, which can also be viewed here:The World Health Organization has now reported that there are 79,000 cases of Coronavirus across at least 30 countries, at least 53 confirmed cases here in the United States. As the virus continues to spread, the global economy is already beginning to suffer.
All of the warning lights are flashing bright red. We are staring down a potential pandemic and the administration has no plan. We have a crisis of Coronavirus and President Trump has no plan, no urgency, no understanding of the facts, or how to coordinate a response. We must get a handle on the Coronavirus and make sure the United States is fully prepared to deal with its potentially far-reaching consequences.
But the Trump administration has been asleep at the wheel.
President Trump: Good Morning! There’s a pandemic of Coronavirus, where are you? Where is your plan?
It’s just amazing: as the crisis grows and grows, we hear nothing. Coronavirus testing kits have not been widely distributed to our hospitals and public health labs. President Trump’s State Department overruled the recommendations of the scientists in the CDC and allowed infected passengers from a cruise ship to be flown back into the United States. And, amazingly, at a time when we know that these pandemics can spread, this Administration cut the CDC, the agency in charge of fighting these global viruses, with a senseless 16% cut to its budget!
And my fellow Americans, that’s what they do on all these things: they just cut, and then the president tries to claim credit after we restore the money. He did it in his State of the Union. He was claiming: because of his great work with NIH, we’re curing cancer. He’s cut the NIH every budget, including this one.
It is a disgrace how this man can say one thing and do another, and it’s confounding that it doesn’t catch up with him—with too many Americans and none of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle.
[…]
Senate Democrats
It’s a disgrace that a U.S. Senator could tell so many lies in so few paragraphs, while trying to politicize a serious health issue and potential threat to our economy.
Lie #1
The World Health Organization has now reported that there are 79,000 cases…
Actually the total number of diagnosed cases exceeds 81,000. However, as of this morning, there are 48,170 active cases, about 1,000 less than yesterday. Once a patient recovers or dies, they are no longer an active case. Active cases are declining.
Lie #2
All of the warning lights are flashing bright red. We are staring down a potential pandemic and the administration has no plan.
Maybe if you spent a little more time brushing up on facts, you wouldn’t lie so much. The CDC is part of the “administration”, they have a plan and they are taking action.
Lie #3
There’s a pandemic of Coronavirus, where are you? Where is your plan?
While it may become a pandemic, at this time it is not… And the CDC is coordinating with international, state and local health agencies trying to keep it from becoming one.
Lie #4
It’s just amazing: as the crisis grows and grows, we hear nothing.
Maybe you should have listened to the CDC’s briefing yesterday… You would have heard a lot… But you wouldn’t have heard the word “crisis.”
Lie #5
President Trump’s State Department overruled the recommendations of the scientists in the CDC and allowed infected passengers from a cruise ship to be flown back into the United States.
Schmucky… Those are U.S. citizens. You know, the sort of people you and the president took oaths to protect. A lie of omission is still a lie. Those people are quarantined on U.S. military bases until they recover or we can be reasonably certain they will not develop symptoms.
Lie #6
And, amazingly, at a time when we know that these pandemics can spread, this Administration cut the CDC, the agency in charge of fighting these global viruses, with a senseless 16% cut to its budget!
And? Apart from the Department of Defense, just about every federal agency could have its budget cut by 20% and still be able to perform its legitimate functions. Furthermore, the CDC’s budget wasn’t even cut. This statement is both a lie and a red herring fallacy. In the briefing yesterday, Dr. Messonnier specifically said that the CDC did not lack the resources it needed and the administration is making another $2.5 billion available.
Schmucky, maybe you should read more and flap your gums less…
CDC Outlines Pandemic Plans As Coronavirus Concerns Rise
2020-02-25 Aislinn Antrim, Assistant Editor
The World Health Organization (WHO) has declined to declare the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a pandemic,1 however the CDC is preparing for potential pandemic conditions.2 In addition to the agency’s preparations, the FDA and the White House also announced new initiatives Tuesday to combat the spreading virus.
[…]
“We are still at the stage of containment, but we are already starting to plan for mitigation,” said Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.2
In a CDC press conference Tuesday, Messonnier said she expects to eventually see community spread in the US, meaning cases will begin appearing without a known source of exposure.2 Community spread is already being observed in several other countries outside of China.1
The virus meets 2 of the 3 criteria for a pandemic, Messonnier said. It has caused illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread, but has not yet qualified as a pandemic because it lacks the definition for “worldwide spread.”2
[…]
For now, the CDC is continuing to focus on individuals that have traveled to China or have been in close contact with a patient with COVID-19. By planning for community spread, however, Messonnier said this focus may shift to a more broad population.2
“If that happens, it will be more and more important that the clinicians have a full tool kit,” she said.2
To that aim, the CDC also is working on the diagnostic tests for COVID-19, which had previously been malfunctioning. While Messonnier did not give a specific timeline for the release of new tests, she said they are hoping to roll the tests out “soon.”2
Currently, 12 locations around the country can test samples, as well as the CDC. The CDC has no backlog or delay, Messonnier said.2
[…]
In addition, the White House has requested appropriation of $1.25 billion in emergency funding to continue supporting critical response and preparedness activities, as well as $535 million in emergency supplemental funding to be transferred from Ebola response efforts to the COVID-19 preparedness effort.6
“This funding would support all aspects of the US response, including: public health preparedness and response efforts; public health surveillance, epidemiology, laboratory testing, and quarantining costs; advanced research and development of new vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics; advanced manufacturing enhancements; and the Strategic National Stockpile,” said Russell T. Vought, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget, in a letter to.6
In a tweet, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said the requested funding is overdue and “completely inadequate” to tackle COVID-19.7
Messonnier concluded that while the situation is concerning, legislators, health care professionals, and the public should focus on preparedness and prevention.
“I’m concerned about the situation, [the] CDC is confirmed about the situation, but we are putting our concerns to work preparing,” she said.2
Pharmacy Times
Nancy… How in the hell would you know that the funding was “completely inadequate”? Is it because it doesn’t address climate change and alphabet people?
And now, Comrade Bernie likens COVID-19 to another fake crisis…
Bernie Sanders Likens Coronavirus to Climate Change ‘Crisis’
HANNAH BLEAU 26 Feb 2020
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), during Tuesday evening’s Democrat debate in Charleston, South Carolina, essentially likened the coronavirus outbreak to the climate change “crisis.”
During a brief segment on the coronavirus, Sanders brought the climate change “crisis” into the mix, addressing both with a similar level of urgency.
[…]
Breitbart
Death toll from:
- COVID-19 = 2,771 as of February 26, 2020, 13:55 CST
- Climate Change Crisis… Dean Wormer?
Oh… But the Climartiat statistics say that climate change has killed millions of people, maybe billions…
Name them. The COVID-19 victims all have names.
- COVID-19 is serious problem… But not a crisis.
- Climate change is what climate does… And not a crisis.
Everyone seems to have forgotten the 2008 “Lehman Moment” here, although the financial crowd are muttering that phrase right now.
What did the central banks do then – why, radical money pumping. Today it is called the “everything bubble”.
Lehman, not even a bank, almost disintegrated the global financial system. It was not the cause, like COVID today, but the trigger for a bubble primed to blow.
This IS President Trump’s Achilles’ heel. It would have dramatic 2020 cascading effects beyond reason. COVID could suddenly turn into a massive crash.
Even arch globalizers are saying COVID is the game-changer.
President Trump campaigned last time on Glass-Steagall, bank separation which was repealed by Democrat Clinton. This the key principle along with massive infrastructure, space and nuclear energy, that will get us out from under that Damocles Sword.
Glass-Steagall was implemented in the 1930’s to avoid another 1929 stock market crash.
It separated banks from investment institutions.
Ronald Regan started chipping away at Glass-Steagall and by the time “W”s admin gave it the final stab the “2008 crisis” was already fomenting.
Many high-rolling financiers made big bucks from the 2008 debacle.
“O” tried to correct the mess by adopting Frank-Dodd.
But alas Trump has insured Frank-Dodd is flaccid.
From my armchair it seems the gov’t, the Fed and the Banks are trying their best to recreate the 2008 great recession all over again.
Corona Virus maybe their ticket.
Much of the world’s economy is utilizing just-in-time production, and many of their components are sourced from China. If those deliveries don’t happen, there will be widespread ripple effects when stockpiled supplies run out. China may feel forced to abandon quarantines and send everyone back to work, despite the downside of doing so.
China will likely save things as they will have people die rather than crash economy. They view this as chance to gain market share.
Those who rely on JIT are already aware of how such systems make them even more reliant on their suppliers. The danger of a single supplier failing is well understood. After all, there are many things that can shut down a supplier.
A fire at a factory or warehouse. Bad storms shutting down a critical highway or causing ships to divert or delay. Activists shutting down an airport.
Mr Middleton,
I respectfully disagree with your assessment. This virus is at least 20 times more lethal and spreads faster than the normal flu. We take few precautions to stop the spread of the normal flu and end up with30 or 40 million cases a year, but only 0.1% of the people die. With this virus being spread faster and easier the implication is taking no action would result in more than 40 million cases and somewhere around 800,000 or more deaths. No this is not the Zombie Apocalypse, and people should not panic, but mitigation efforts will have sizable economic impacts that will last more than just a few months., and the humanitarian impact will not be trivial, and down playing the severity of a pandemic is foolish. You also show a chart that has a decline. On that same website there is a chart showing new cases outside China, and that chart is on a steady unchanged rise.
As to equities, any article suggesting this is a garden variety correction is foolish especially considering the equity markets were already priced to perfection so any reduction in PE multiples compounded by lower earnings will have devastating effects on equity prices. Don’t take my word or it. Just listen to Mohamed El-Erian
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/02/03/dont-buy-the-dip-during-the-coronavirus-sell-off-says-mohamed-el-erian.html
Try respectfully disagreeing with something I actually wrote.
“. . .the market’s reaction to it this week has been seriously overblown… And much of the “credit” lies with the lamestream media, who seem to be wishing for a COVID-19 recession.”
I remain respectfully disagreed . . .
A +10% correction in the US markets was long overdue. However, the craven US democrats, in collusion with the media, are doing just exactly what David Middleton described.
Witness: 2/25/20Nancy Pelosi: ‘Too Late’ for Trump Admin to Stem Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/02/26/nancy-pelosi-trump-administration-response-to-coronavirus-is-too-late/
Note it is implied in Pelosi’s statement that President Trump bears the responsibility to stop the spread of the coronavirus…. and “It’s too late!” The media et.al. ran with it, adding nationwide voice to the democrat fear mongering and specious maneuvering for political advantage. You remain respectfully 50% in error.
Oops…. musta missed an ‘end bold’ command, after ‘Outbreak’.
Yeah… The stock market was positioned for this. The DJIA just set an all time record high last week and the average PE of the S&P 500 was around 19. A market ripe for correction and an over-hyped “crisis” is a formula for an eventual buying opportunity… Once the “falling knives” comes to an end.
The thing that really sucks is that my company, a mid-cap E&P, had a PE of about 2.5 last week, now it’s below 2.
The historical PE is about 15.
Or not…
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
Never let a useful crisis go to waste. Rings a bell, no?
It will probably end up killing about 5% of the people that the flu will this year and every year. We don’t panic and crap our pants each flu season do we?
I have some investments in the stock market. I just turn off the news when they talk about the market drop. I’ll be OK. I wish they’d distribute some seat belts though. Regarding the coronavirus, I have so many questions that aren’t being answered. I like statistics. I’d like to see someone explain out of 100 people infected, how many people died, how many were hospitalized, how many people had symptoms just of a common cold or cough, how many people had mild symptoms, and how many people were asymptomatic. Why does this turn into pneumonia so often? What are the first symptoms experienced — do you get a cough, runny nose, fever, all of the above, none of the above? For those who recovered, how long does recovery take? Is the primary damage caused by the virus, itself or our immune systems overreacting to the virus? Would antiinflamatories help (that’s one thing they gave me in an IV when I had pneumonia a few years ago)? Do warm, humid climates help prevent the spread of the disease?
Without further guidance, if I start to get it, I’ll try my usually preventative measures — lots of Benadryl and keeping my mouth very clean (by brushing and flossing my teeth often, warm salt-water rinses and gargles often, and using a Waterpic). This doesn’t help though, once the full impact of a cold or cough takes effect.
I’m buying.
Dave Middleton, please stick to drilling holes in the ground. When it comes to the the market and virology you stink.
Based on?
The collective intelligence of the investors in the market shows that you are an idiot.
Based on the fact that the day after you posted this piece of BS the market dropped another 4.4%
WTF does the market over-reaction to COVID-19 have to do with virology?
You need to pay more attention to what various corporations are saying about their bottom line with regards to the effect this virus is having on both their top line and their bottom lines.
…
You stink with regards to financial topics.
Our PE dropped from less than 3 last week to about 2 this week. The S&P 500 average PE had risen to about 19 last week, when the markets set all time highs. The average historical PE is 15.
Your point?
COVID-19 is as contagious as influenza, but unlike influenza, it has a mortality rate of 2%
Fatality rates for viral infections that didn’t crater the market this much…
SARS 9.6%
MERS 34%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
The current fatality rate for resolved cases of COVID-19 is about 7%. WHO estimates that it will ultimately be about 2%, but acknowledges that it could be an order of magnitude off and the fatality rate is dropping faster than the logic of your arguments.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
Tell me Mr. Geolo-Virologist…..what is the fatality rate for Influenza ?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
The death rate in the US from COVID-19 is currently 0.0%.
WHO estimates that the global fatality rate from COVID-19 could be 2%, but they could be off by an order of magnitude, meaning that it could ultimately be as low as 0.2%.
Considering that this is a “novel” (new) virus, that started in a Communist dictatorship, with a Stone Age health care system, it makes Gorebal Warming look like a serious problem in comparison.
Will it get worse in the US? Probably. Will it be distinguishable from the seasonal flu in the US? I doubt it. What about the rest of the world? Who gives a frack?
SARS and MERS were not as contagious as this thing Mr. Geolo-Virologist
…
Again, I recommend you stick to drilling holes in the ground and stop venturing into territory you are ignorant of.
The typical infection rate is estimated to be 2-3 new cases per vector. It may or not be more infectious than SARS of MERS. We won’t know until it’s run its course.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/comparing-outbreaks-coronavirus-mers-sars-health-epidemic/
Hopefully this will cure your ignorance: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-china-sars-mers-intl-hnk/index.html
Learn how to read… From your CNN link…
It won’t be possible to definitively quantify either the fatality or infection rate until there are more comprehensive data, particularly from the places with reliable data.
Right now, the infection rate looks like 2-3 new infections per vector. But that includes the early rapid spread in Wuhan. Almost all of the surge in South Korea yesterday was within one large religious sect in Daegu.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#asia
“The death rate in the US from COVID-19 is currently 0.0%.”
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What a fracking idiot you are. That statement is the perfect example of a “cherry pick.”
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More than 2,800 people have globally died from this virus.
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You need to get informed.
Cherry picking? Only a total fracking moron would quote one phrase from a comprehensive comment, post it right below the comprehensive comment and call it cherry picking…
Based on the fact that a hospitalized person in California with no known travel/contacts has tested positive for the virus.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Note: One cruise ship outnumbers all but two nations, most US cases originated from that ship and they are in quarantine.
This article tells me the ultimate death % will be 8-9% of those infected. Far higher than I’d expected from press reports. I understand why there is so much panic.
Where the stock market bubble meets the coronavirus needle.
While I totally agree with David that the coronavirus epidemic has been completely hyped, there is no reason to believe the epidemic has actually peaked and it will get a lot worse before it gets better – I think!
It is true that a peak has occurred – because the massive crack down in China has been very effective and it has only begun spreading in other countries. It may well have peaked – in China – but I suspect numbers will start to grow in China again as numbers start to grow in other countries.
I hope we have seen a good portion of the run amd it won’t get too much worse before it ends, but that seems unlikely. A pandemic is still possible, but certainly not guaranteed. And let’s all pray for that!
It’s peaked in the sense that since mid February, more people are recovering than new cases are being reported. The daily differential has been about 1,000 per day over the past three days.
Definition of peaked…
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
Clearly, we are not out of the woods yet and efforts to control and treat this virus are just beginning.
I just ordered a three day supply of pizza, just in case the supply lines collapse.
First things first.
Good thing that the best pizza doesn’t actually come from Italy.
Mr. Middleton:
Did you deliberately omit the most obvious way the virus could impact the 2020 elections? What age group is most susceptable to succumbing to the virus? What is the age group of the President and most of his significant potential opponents? And finally, how many of them are reducing their exposure to crowds of people?
Death need not even occur. How many votes would an elderly candidate in an ICU get?
Then there is the down ballot. How will campaigning, and voting, itself, be affected if there are quarantines and lockdowns on election day (note to self, apply for absentee ballot)?
Likely none of this will happen, but I foresee someone making a bad movie using the above as the plotline (and the villain will be the evil President trying to suppress the vote – would you expect otherwise?).
If China and South Korea were voting in our 2020 election, that would be a good point.
The vast majority of the serious/critical cases and deaths are among those of us over 60, and worsens with age.
While community-spread outbreaks may occur here, so far, no US cases have even reached serious/critical and there has been no community spreading, yet.
There is a simple and obvious explanation for the decline in reported active cases: the Chinese government is lying.
Even if that was accurate, so what?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
If the pope kicks the bucket, then will they elect a new pope or just stick with Benedict?
I miss John Paul II… And I’m not even Catholic… 😇
re: “And I’m not even Catholic”
RCIA (AKA Ordo Initiationis Christianae Adultorum) can change that.
I have had the exact symptoms of Covid 19 since Tuesday 3/3/2020, and still have them.
Here are the symptoms.
Fever varying between 99.6 and 100.4F
Very achy joints and muscles, back feels like sunburn
Congestion primarily in lungs. When I lie down, there is a heavy rumbling
I called into my local urgent care on 3/4 and provided the above symptoms. They they asked me to come in after asking if I’d been to China or Italy, or know anyone who’d been there.
I came in 20 minutes early, with not too many people in the waiting room, and when they affirmed my symptoms I received a mask, a simple dust mask. I told the people working there I did not want to infect anyone else. They were not worried.
The Nurse practitioner saw me, took a swab, and came back with positive for “a virus”. It was not the Flu, Influenza. There was not enough specificity to the test to know whether it was a corona virus or the specific Covid 19 strain. There is no test for that yet.
They gave me a prescription for a rescue inhaler, that I had asked for, and let me back out saying to call if I need a nebulizer treatment.
I was already taking a ton of fluids and guaifenesin, as well as albuterol (rescue inhaler) that I got in Mexico, which costs $5 dollars at any pharmacy. The price for buying it in the US is $49 with my medical plan.
My conclusion is that we have ZERO idea how many people have Covid 19. We do not have the ability to check as far as I understand.