Reposted from Fabius Maximus Website
By Larry Kummer, Editor / 29 December 2019
Summary: In February 2004, headlines in The Guardian and other news media told us of a secret DoD report predicting a climate catastrophe by 2020. Read the study and gain perspective about today’s warnings of a Climate Emergency.
Photo 50590315 © Strahil Dimitrov – Dreamstime.
“Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us.”
From The Guardian on 21 February 2004.
“Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war. Britain will be ‘Siberian’ in less than 20 years. Threat to the world is greater than terrorism.”
“Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters. A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world. …Randall added that it was already possibly too late to prevent a disaster happening. ‘We don’t know exactly where we are in the process. It could start tomorrow and we would not know for another five years,’ he said. …”
Other journalists gave uncritical coverage to it (e.g., Fortune, Grist). The secret report is now public. Read it and feel the terror!
“An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and
Its Implications for United States National Security.”
By Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Commissioned by DoD’s Office of Net Assessment. Published October 2003.
Schwartz is a “futurist”, co-founder of the Global Business Network consulting firm and big in the “scenario planning” gig (Wikipedia). Randall also worked at GBN.
Excerpt from the Executive Summary.
The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in the atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5-10°F in a single decade. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that altered climatic patterns could last for as much as a century, as they did when the ocean conveyor collapsed 8,200 years ago, or, at the extreme, could last as long as 1,000 years as they did during the Younger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago. {Perhaps caused by an asteroid impact.}
In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100-year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions.
- Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5°F over Asia and North America and 6°F in northern Europe.
- Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4°F in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
- Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.
- Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.
The report explores how such an abrupt climate change scenario could potentially de-stabilize the geo-political environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even war due to resource constraints such as {these}.
- Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production.
- Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts.
- Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess.
From the body of the report.
By 2005 the climatic impact of the shift is felt more intensely in certain regions around the world. More severe storms and typhoons bring about higher storm surges and floods in low-lying islands such as Tarawa and Tuvalu (near New Zealand).
In 2007, a particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making a few key coastal cities such as The Hague unlivable. Failures of the delta island levees in the Sacramento River region in the Central Valley of California creates an inland sea and disrupts the aqueduct system transporting water from northern to southern California because salt water can no longer be kept out of the area during the dry season.
After roughly 60 years of slow freshening, the thermohaline collapse begins in 2010, disrupting the temperate climate of Europe, which is made possible by the warm flows of the Gulf Stream (the North Atlantic arm of the global thermohaline conveyor). Ocean circulation patterns change, bringing less warm water north and causing an immediate shift in the weather in Northern Europe and eastern North America. {It lists many many more bad things that happen.}
The Weather Report: 2010-2020.
Drought persists for the entire decade in critical agricultural regions and in the areas around major population centers in Europe and eastern North America. Average annual temperatures drop by up to 5°F over Asia and North America and up to 6°F in Europe. Temperatures increase by up to 4°F in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa. Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impact of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific face enhanced westerly winds. …
2012: Severe drought and cold push Scandinavian populations southward, push back from EU. Flood of refugees to southeast U.S. and Mexico from Caribbean islands.
2015: Conflict within the EU over food and water supply leads to skirmishes and strained diplomatic relations 2018: Russia joins EU, providing energy resources.
2020: Migration from northern countries such as Holland and Germany toward Spain and Italy.
{And many many more bad things happen around the world. It gets even worse after 2020.}
—————– End of excerpt. —————–
Climate scientists lept into action!
The Schwartz – Randall report is an example of the climate alarmists’ typical exaggeration of scientists’ confidence in unvalidated theories (i.e., theories far out of consensus). So climate scientists responded to misuse of science by condemning it. Just kidding! I cannot find any who condemned it, because alarmists are honorary members of the Climate Science Club – with all sins forgiven.
While climate scientists were MIA, some journalists provided a balanced analysis. Such as this at the NY Times by Andy Revkin.
Notes from the past
A doomster vision of the future was popular back in 1971, just as it is today. On 15 January 1971 Americans watched a TV show by a hot new director, the 24-year old Steven Spielberg: “L.A. 2017.” We learned that in 46 years pollution would destroy the Earth’s ecology and force the remnants of humanity to live underground.
Before we panic about DoD’s 2003 climate study, remember that they eagerly join every parade that might give them more money. Such as the CIA’s paean to global cooling: “Potential Implications of Trends in Population Growth, Food Production, and Climate“ in August 1974.
“{A} number of climatologists are in agreement that the northern hemisphere, at least, is growing cooler. …According to Hubert Lamb – an outstanding British climatologist – 23 out of 27 forecasting methods predicted a cooling trend through the remainder of this century. …A number of meteorological experts are thinking in terms of a return to a climate like that of the 19th century.”
If you are still calm, remember Peak Oil? DoD’s Office of Force Transformation hired LMI Government Consulting to produce “Transforming the Way the DoD Looks at Energy” (January 2007). Only massive transfusions of cash could save our military from peak oil. The doomsters were ecstatic! To avoid embarrassment, all online copies have been put down the memory hole.
Conclusions
The best guides we have are the reports of the IPCC and major climate agencies. The IPCC’s scientists assign a confidence level to each of their findings. Most are “medium”; few are “very high” (see their recent Special Report) – because we have much to learn about climate dynamics. This is the key fact that alarmists and their journalist enablers conceal from us.
For More Information
Ideas! For your holiday shopping, see my recommended books and films at Amazon. Also, see a story about our future: “Ultra Violence: Tales from Venus.”
Important: the Climate Emergency is a moral panic.
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. For more information about this vital issue see the keys to understanding climate change. Also, see all posts about uncertainties in climate science, and especially these …
- Focusing on worst-case climate futures doesn’t work. It shouldn’t work.
- Roger Pielke Jr.: the politics of unlikely climate scenarios.
- A look at the workings of Climate Propaganda Inc.
- The Extinction Rebellion’s hysteria vs. climate science.
- Listening to climate doomsters makes our situation worse.
- See how climate science becomes alarmist propaganda.
- The climate crusade marches across America!
- Toxic climate propaganda is poisoning US public policy.
Activists don’t want you to read these books
Some unexpected good news about polar bears: The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened
To learn more about the state of climate change see The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters & Climate Change
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
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“In 2007, a particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making a few key coastal cities such as The Hague unlivable.”
The writer has no idea about the situation in The Hague, the city is protected by dunes.
A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer. Huh. A real whistle blower who could recognize a heap’n help’n of nonsense coming out of “experts.” Wonder who commissioned that boondoggle.
GP,
“Wonder who commissioned that boondoggle”
The Guardian (and other news articles) states that it was personally commissioned by Andrew Marshall, director DoD’s Office of Net Assessment from 1973 to 2015. A very influential man, in his day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Marshall_(foreign_policy_strategist)
Sorry, I can’t afford the time to read a seventeen-year-old report about doom that I am NOT experiencing now. (^_^)
Maybe I can print it out, cut the pages into strips, and twine those around the empty toilet paper spool in my bathroom.
Robert,
“Sorry, I can’t afford the time to read a seventeen-year-old report ”
That’s a common response. But it isn’t a good one, imo. We can’t see the context for today’s reports without seeing the pattern – understanding which comes from history.
The 3 reports here show how DoD uses threat exageration to get funding, tapping current anxieties. Almatmists are their allies, as each report gets big press — cited as evidence that even authoratative souces such as the US military see the seriousness of the threat.
Seeing this context allows us to better evaluate the next such report.
Remembering is learning.
You make a fair point, Larry.
We need people like you to research the history of deception — I’m just not one of them. (^_^) … at least, not at the moment.
Thanks for your efforts to summarize what I don’t have time to delve into in depth.
There is no shortage of Naval Flag Officers who buy into, (or at least give lip service to) CAW doomsday scenarios. Naturally, the solution requires accelerated ship-building programs.
This, from the folks who gave us the completely useless Littoral Combat Ships. They were wrong in both accounts, and badly miscalculated Blue Water-Capable ship requirements.
Meanwhile, the highly-touted polar meltdown has failed to materialize, leaving Coast Guard Sailor’s with an insufficient number of ancient under-powered ice breakers.
It doesn’t take a genius to know a rogue nation will possess nuclear capable ICBM’s in the near future. Naval weapons capable destroying such weapons must be a top priority.
While its a amusing read, when put into the context of scenario planning, and with the right up front qualifications (which you never see in other doomster reports) its probably a reasonable report. Hell these guys make pretend planet ending nuclear war.
They go to pretty big lengths in the actual report to say its an extreme scenario and it is specifically designed to be an alternative to gradual change scenarios.
Its the idiotic reporters who pick this up and run with it which are the ones who should be pilloried.
Dean,
I”Its the idiotic reporters who pick this up and run with it which are the ones who should be pilloried.”
There are two indications that your are wrong. First, if that we so, then the authors and the powerful funding agencies – NASA and DoD – would demand corrections. They didn’t.
Second, as I note, DoD funds many such reports. Global cooling, peak oil, whatever – each gets a structurally similar “study” – and the resulting alarmist news coverage. DoD never protests – because that is the desired result.
People familiar with DoD – such as the Chuck Spinney, Winslow Wheeler, the people at the Straus Military Reform Project (part of the Project On Government Oversight) – have documented this as part of DoD’s skillful use of threat exaggeration to maintain funding.
This has been successfully used for 7 decades. Sadly, it works almost every time.
Of course, it’s purely coincidental that this paper was written and prepared within 12 months of the release of ‘The Day After Tomorrow’.
Although, I did find the crap about Russia joining the EU funny. The author must have been absolutely wasted by the time he wrote that gem on his napkin whilst waiting for another bottle of tequila.
“2020: Migration from northern countries such as Holland and Germany toward Spain and Italy.”
Actually the reverse is happening: migration from Africa and the Middle East via Greece, Italy and Spain to Holland and Germany.
I remember when the levee near Isleton across the Sacramento River from Rio Vista broke and flooded Brannon island (I think that was the island name) Had to drive around the flooded area for about six months instead of on Hwy 12. This was back in the early 1970s as I was stationed at Travis on active duty in those earlier years. This was my route to go weekend skiing in the Sierra, approaching 50 years ago. If it happened today as forecasted above, some farmers would be ticked off and the tremendous amount of cross state trucking would be disrupted. Climate Catastrophists can only dream…
“Failures of the delta island levees in the Sacramento River region in the Central Valley of California creates an inland sea and disrupts the aqueduct system transporting water from northern to southern California because salt water can no longer be kept out of the area during the dry season.”
So beyond the pale …
Proving that sometimes Military Intelligence is an oxymoron.
Finally, an excellent missive from “Larry the Cable Guy.”
Unfortunately, he is still being duped into using wikipedia.commie
as legitimate reference.
Sounds like this DoD report is a wealth of failed political science predictions.
PS I thought Tuvalu needed a “Super Moon” to flood?
I remember the hysteria at the time. It was nowhere near of what we see today but I was also concerned. Not as much as going to the streets but at the time a younger me wanted to believe in those glossy reports. How naive I was. All predictions made by the alarmist camp were always wrong. Why believing them now especially as they refuse to deliver us any solid proof.