Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Climate scientists maxing out on panic.
Climate change ‘hitting harder and sooner’ than forecast, warn scientists ahead of UN meeting
Updated yesterday at 11:02am
Key points:
- The new report revealed that global temperatures between 2015-2019 were the hottest on record
- It noted carbon emissions in the same period had risen by 20 per cent
- Its authors also warned of the alarming extent of sea-level rise and melting glaciers
A new report published ahead of key UN climate talks has warned the world is falling drastically behind in the race to avert climate disaster, with the five-year period ending in 2019 the hottest on record.
The data, compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), says climate change is accelerating, with sea levels rising, carbon dioxide levels increasing and ice sheets melting faster than ever before.
It warned that carbon-cutting efforts have to be intensified immediately and comes ahead of a major UN climate summit in New York on Monday that will be attended by more than 60 world leaders, as secretary-general Antonio Guterres pushes for countries to increase their greenhouse gas reduction targets.
…
“This reads like a credit card statement after a five-year-long spending binge,” said Dave Reay, chair in carbon management at the University of Edinburgh.
“Our global carbon credit is maxed out,” he added.
“If emissions don’t start falling there will be hell to pay.“
…
Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-23/climate-change-accelerating-warn-scientists/11537240
The report is available here.
Carbon emissions rising 20% in four years, and still that pesky Arctic icecap refuses to melt.
It must be a real challenge for the climate community, thinking up new scary statements which are even more scary than last year’s scary statements, without accidentally including verifiable claims about consequences which might lead to embarrassment.
Presumably – ZH is Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com eh?
Yup.
‘hell to pay’.
Yup – they will send Greta the Gremlin to scowl at you….
R
And if that doesn’t work, she will scream at you, cry, and throw a tantrum.
Gee – and natural emissions are more than twenty times as great as the human contribution.
No one ever seems concerned about those.
which natural emissions?
volcanoes only turn out 1% of what humans do…
Well, gosh, Grift – there’s the oceans, there’s animal respiration – I believe those together account for something a bit less than 60% and 40% respectively – there’s also degradation of biomass, both plant and animal – that whole carbon-based life-thing.
You can only hurt your case by contributing. Because it basically highlights your core dishonesty.
And as long as we’re addressing your red-herring, one good fart from a constipated volcano can eradicate about five years of ‘mitigation’ efforts – which of course begs the question ‘ How much less effect on the climate do mitigation efforts have even than human C02 emissions’.
I can tell you one certainly has a negative effect on the economy and general quality of human life, in the greatest tradition of progressive ‘all pain, no gain’ policies.
These natural emissions (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/outreach/faq_cat-1.html#23):
“The Earth has a natural CO2 cycle that moves massive amounts of CO2 into and out of the atmosphere. The oceans and land vegetation release and absorb over 200 billion metric tons of carbon into and out of the atmosphere each year. When the cycle is balanced, atmospheric levels of CO2 remain relatively stable. Human activities are now adding about 7 billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere every year, which is only about 3-4% of the amount exchanged naturally. But that’s enough to knock the system out of balance, surpassing nature’s ability to take our CO2 emissions out of the atmosphere. The oceans and land vegetation are absorbing about half of our emissions; the other half remains airborne for 100 years or longer. This is what is causing the rapid buildup of CO2, a buildup that dwarfs natural fluctuations.”
I’d like to know the error bars on the 200 billion metric tons exchanged annually.
(Edited) SUNMOD
Aargh. 200 BILLION.
FGS griff. Can you please post something factual, even if you draw the wrong conclusions. As I’ve told you before, stop lying.
…human emissions are cumulative…..but only from 1st world countries
The thing is there’s no absurdity anymore – I’ve actually HEARD that rationalization.
…what should scare the horse piss out of you is that people actually believe it
Oh it does – I have a t-shirt that says: “Nothing scares me less than C02. Nothing scares me more than people who are scared of C02”.
I get dirty looks here in Portland.
Someone urgently ought to read this poem to the FFF, XR and Greta – although the biting irony may be lost on them :
Lewis Carroll’s tale of the Walrus, the Carpenter and those Oysters.
https://www.jabberwocky.com/carroll/walrus.html
Both the Carpenter and Walrus were very sorry, weeping, indeed, to have made them trot so quick after playing them such a trick, when answer came there none.
bonbon ,
You have hit the nail on the head with this great poem .
The climateers make such a fuss and then lead their followers to a dead end road .
I am certain that the call that is being made to de carbonize the world and cut back growth will only lead to poverty and famine .
With a growing world population growth is essential otherwise every one will become poorer and poverty will be the norm.
The worlds population is still growing and all those extra people will need food and shelter education and health care for a start . Estimated at another 2 billion in the next 30 years .
How dare you Gretta deny these people food and shelter that you have been lavished with .
Don’t you think that is rather selfish of you ?
Graham
who are future
“If emissions don’t start falling there will be hell to pay.“
Don’t worry there already is what with Thunderberg and the fan club getting more hysterical by the day. Pretty hard to get any peace and quiet away from all the apopleptic doomsdayers now.
There’s a real climate threat, which each of these alarmists choose to turn a blind eye to and it could happen any day:
https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo
If these religious psychopaths really cared about “saving the planet” , saving mankind, then they’d be out on
streets demonstrating hysterically every day against the threat of nuclear winter. That nobody seems to have the slightest interest in avoiding the last catastrophe on planet earth tells me that the ever growing alarmism has absolutely nothing to do with climate change. Clearly there must be other motives.
PS: In case you don’t know; for the first time in history the Pentagon now believes it can “win” a nuclear war (whatever winning means to them)
Sure there are other motives, and Bank of England chief Carney makes them perfectly clear – see abobe.
As regards the Pentagon, they assess climate is a bigger threat than terrorism.
So Foggy Bottom is still dazed. A dose of Dr. Strangelove ?
Pathetically stupid scenario…..
The most disturbing thing is that apparently the WMO has completely missed that the most intensive El Nino of at least the last 100 years has occurred during the 2015-2019 period. A temperature rise of 0.5 degree Celsius within a year, followed by a gradual decrease of the same magintude. For comparison: an increase of 0.5 degree Celsius as a result of increased CO2 would according to alarmist predictions take several decades.
So, I found this interesting, from page 8 of the Five-Year Report:
“MORE HEAT BEING TRAPPED IN THE OCEAN The capacity of the ocean to absorb heat is a critical part of the climate system. It is estimated that more than 90% of the radiative imbalance associated with anthropogenic climate change is taken up by the oceans.”
They go on to make claims about reaching “new records,” but acknowledge pre-2005 data was sparse with large uncertainties.
Interesting, since the oceans are opaque to absorbing the radiative wavelengths of the energy imbalance associated with anthropogenic climate change.
When will this insanity stop? Alarmists have indoctrinated an entire generation to believe that the future is hopeless, that some kind of environmental Armageddon is just around the corner. It’s flat out child abuse. When will the leaders of the alarmists be held accountable for the damage they have done to a generation of children, not 100 years down the road, but the damage they have done today?
Malthusian rot all the way down.
The WMO said it wasn’t happening last month.
This will be hilarious, I think the IPCC just ran out of leash.
The article plainly states that the IPCC is claiming its happening based on data the WMO collected but the IPCC doesn’t have the mandate to act in the WMO’s place. If it was happening and the WMO collected the data the WMO would have said so.
“There is no climate crisis” – 500 scientists write to UN.
“Climate models are unfit for purpose”
According to No Tricks Zone and other web sites.
Perhaps we have some sanity at last. Don’t expect the BBC to report this anytime soon.
Letter to UN is posted here: https://clintel.nl/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/ecd-letter-to-un.pdf
Barbara… Thank you so much for posting the letter… The best thing about it firstly the truth, second is the names of the scientists… greta and the other greens have never given names of the claimed 99% of all scientists…
Just a few weeks ago the WMO general secretary was saying back off from all this alarmist nonsense:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/06/wmo-secretary-general-warns-against-climate-doomsters-and-extremists/
The WMO a sister organization of the UN. Why should it be different?
‘still that pesky Arctic icecap refuses to melt’
Really? given a record melt event in Greenland this year, record temperatures in the Canadian arctic and the second lowest arctic sea ice level in modern times?
Nothing at all going on in that there arctic? you sure?
Griff… I am new to the climate… but has the greenland/artic. Never melted before? Has all the worlds glaciers and ice been frozen intact since the day they froze?? Has there never been a hot day since we started keeping records? Why is any weather instantly a record now?
” I am new to the climate”
That’s ok, so is griff.
Griff I know how you hate details…….NSIDC > “Cumulatively, the 2019 season sum of melt area for every day is tracking well behind 2012, the satellite-era record for total melt-day area, and slightly behind 2016 (Figure 1b). However, total ice mass loss for 2019 is nearly equal to 2012 because of low winter snowfall. Early melting of the surface in 2019 quickly removed the snow accumulation from winter, and deeper melting this month has eroded older snow and ice over large areas of the western side of Greenland.”
Seven years, and we still haven’t come close to tying, much less beating the record low of 2012.
Yawn.
Yawn 2- We need to re-focus and not let inciters like “Griff” try to focus us on CO2- we know that’s a lie, it’s always been about control, money an power. Of course sick opportunists join in and make money on windmills etc.
The real crime here is that scientists aren’t speaking up about the complete perversion of their trade.
Really they have no shame. The emotional rantings of an emotionally disturbed teenager presented as a plea to follow science. We have entered a new phase of mob mentality comparable to the Cultural Revolution in Mao’s China.
Personally I prefer the young people fighting for liberty in Hong Kong. They deserve our unabashed support.
Which records? The 150 year instrumental record that realistically has a +/-1 degree C level of accuracy at best? How about the geological record, which shows the earth has sustained much higher temperatures in the past billion years or so (even if you take into account the even lower accuracy of those measurements)?
If worldwide temperatures don’t take an immediate, noticeable (to the average person), and sustained upward turn over the next couple of years, there WILL be hell to pay. But it will be the CAGW activist’s heads on the block, not the rest of us.
+/- 1C is only for the instruments themselves.
When you add in the fact that we would need to increase the number of sensors by at least 2 to 3 orders of magnitude to come close to adequately covering the globe, and a more realistic number is more like +/- 5C.
What has happened to Katowice? Wasn’t that supposed to do something? Oh yes, there was the IPCC’s SR1.5 report which seems to have gone quiet ? Have you read it? We’ve to stop using coal within eleven years? The GWPF produced a press release – 5 May I recall – which destroyed its painful 700 pages. Anyway, it’s good fun – full of impossible transnational coercive measures
that will never happen. All the ‘scientists’ are chosen by gender and nationality, favouring ‘small island’. (a West Indian term )
The me message is becoming more shrill, more often, and louder. The desperation is palpable.
“The new report revealed that global temperatures between 2015-2019 were the hottest on record.”
Except in the US where the Climate Reference System shows clearly that temperature of the coterminous States has not changed since 2005; gone down a bit actually.
More American exceptionalism.
“More American exceptionalism.”
Yes! The United States of America is cooling in this era of CO2. So exceptional. Or maybe it’s just the fact that the US temperature record is much less bastardized than the rest of the world.
Quote from the above boxed article:
“Key points:
— The new report revealed that global temperatures between 2015-2019 were the hottest on record
— It noted carbon emissions in the same period had risen by 20 per cent”
Both of the above statements are provably false.
The first claim has been refuted so competently by recent WUWT that posts that I need not address it further.
As for the second claim, according to the downloadable database on CO2 emission data from (http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions via https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
for the period of 2015-2019, inclusive and extrapolating the 2015-2017 trend line to estimate 2018 and 2019 (full year) CO2 emissions, atmospheric CO2 levels rose by only 9.7%. Not even close to 20%.
Independently, the Keeling curve of continuous measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration obtained at Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2 and find up-to-date curve at
) documents a yearly average of 403 ppm for 2015 and September 23, 2019 reading of 415.4 ppm. If we extrapolate that trend to the end of 2019, we arrive at a 2019 yearly average of about 413 ppm, or a 2015-2019 (inclusive) change of 1.0% . . . nothing near 20%, and note that the Keeling curve also includes natural emissions of CO2.
Ooops . . . error in last paragraph of my post above . . . should be a 2015-2019 (inclusive) change of 2.5%, not the stated 1.0%.
And for clarification, the second paragraph is specific to anthropogenic-only CO2 emissions (the database cited does not include natural emissions of CO2).
Its all standard practice in the run up the to a climate doom conference to see these reports popping out . Indeed to such an extent that like chicken little their claims have little effect as reality keeps on failing to match their claims .
Last week: “The General-Secretary of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says that the alarmist narrative on climate change has gone off the rails and criticised the news media for provoking unjustified anxiety.”
This week: “The data, compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), says climate change is accelerating, with sea levels rising, carbon dioxide levels increasing and ice sheets melting faster than ever before”
As much as we can blame the MSM, it does appear to be getting rather mixed signals from the “experts”.
Although if the MSM was like the MSM of old, it would at least have a grown-up who would spot the difference from week to week. Now, its an arts school grad with a degree in clown makeup re-writing a WWF press release.
Love that, Caligula Jones! Particularly your appreciation of the educational level of the “journalists” who produce this sort of tripe!
I took media writing in college back in the 80s. Gave me a great background in everything including using the brand new technology called a “word processor”.
I tried my hand at media writing but it wasn’t for me and went into statistics.
But I do keep up with friends who (mostly) had a good run and a decent(ish) living.
Until clickbait came along.
Its almost heartbreaking when an old friend sends me a link to his newest listicle. I used to proofread his Hollywood-produced scripts…(which may also be an indictment of Hollywood of course).
Take a good look at who gets called a “senior” writer these days. It’d be funny if the “senior” editors weren’t barely 30 themselves.
… lots of mole hills made into mountains in that report.
Such frauds.
Everyone’s losing their minds. I blame climate change.