No climate emergency for polar bears or walrus means no climate emergency period

Reposted from Polar Bear Science

Posted on September 23, 2019 |

We are told the Arctic is warming twice as fast as anywhere else in the world, yet as the internet reverberates with shrill, almost-the-lowest-ice-extent-ever stories, polar bears, Pacific walrus, and the most common ice seal species (ringed and bearded seals, as well as harp seals), are all thriving.  Two new videos published by the GWPF on polar bears and walrus confront this conundrum and the conclusion is clear: if there is no climate emergency for polar bears, there is no climate emergency anywhere.

Polar bears have survived several periods of less ice than there is now as well as periods with more ice. Most ice seal species and walrus, which have existed in the Arctic much longer than polar bears, have lived through many of these extreme sea ice cycles. The low ice extent this year – whether it ends up being second-lowest or third-lowest since 1979 – is merely a blip compared to what these species have experienced during the Pleistocene.

This new video explains that polar bears are important ecosystem indicators that are taking reduced summer sea ice in their stride. My new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, explains why this has caught polar bear specialists off guard.

Moreover – as this new video shows – dozens of walrus falling to their deaths from high Arctic cliffs and large herds of walrus hauled out on Arctic beaches are natural events – not tragedies caused by global warming. Pacific walrus are not threatened with extinction because of reduced summer sea ice.

I can only conclude that if there is no climate emergency in the Arctic for these critical species, there cannot be a climate emergency anywhere.

xxxxxxx

The press release from GWPF below included links to the two videos.

Press Release: No Climate Emergency For Polar Bears Or Walruses
Critical indicator species like polar bears, ice seals, and walruses are thriving

London, 23 September: Despite the Arctic warming twice as fast as anywhere else in the world, critical indicator species like polar bears, ice seals, and walruses are thriving.

In two new recently-released GWPF videos, Dr. Susan Crockford, a Canadian wildlife expert, explains why Arctic marine mammal species are flourishing despite declining summer sea ice.

“The Truth about Attenborough’s Falling Walrus” provides evidence from US government biologists in the 1990s that walrus deaths due to falls from cliffs are natural events not cause by declines in summer sea ice blamed on rising CO2. Over-crowding is often the primary cause. Moreover, a comprehensive assessment by the US Fish and Wildlife Service determined in late 2017 that walrus in the Chukchi Sea were not threatened with extinction by lack of ice, despite claims to the contrary made earlier this year by Sir David Attenborough in a highly-publicized Netflix/World Wildlife Fund documentary.

“No Climate Emergency for Polar Bears” is a graphic reminder that polar bears, walrus and Arctic seals have survived through periods of much less ice than has existed in the Arctic since 2007 during their evolutionary history. The fact that polar bears especially are doing so well despite almost 50% less summer ice than existed in the 1980s is strong evidence they possess a natural ability to adapt quickly to extreme sea ice changes that predictive models have failed to appreciate.

Dr. Crockford explains that emaciated polar bears – along with dozens of bears onshore at garbage dumps or bears that fatally attack people – are not evidence of climate change. In fact, overall polar bears have been doing very well in a warmer world and this year has been no exception.

“Polar bears, walrus, and ice seals are important ecosystem indicators. However, contrary to prevailing rhetoric, these species have been taking reduced summer sea ice in their stride. I can only conclude that if there is no climate emergency in the Arctic, which is said to be warming twice as fast as anywhere else in the world, there cannot be a climate emergency anywhere,” Dr Crockford said.

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84 thoughts on “No climate emergency for polar bears or walrus means no climate emergency period

  1. Let me remind everyone what “the Science” has to say about polar bears-
    “Our analyses highlight the potential for large reductions in the global polar-bear population if sea ice loss continues, which is forecast by climate models and other studies”- IPCC(2013).
    One wonders if this nonsense can survive until the next AR6.
    Perhaps like the Hockey Stick graph it will melt away (pun intended).
    Even Al Gore has given up on the polar bear narrative in his 2017 Movie Sequel, where they no longer get a mention as Dr. Roy Spencer has noted.

    • I think the next IPCC report will be far more alarmist and therefore even more disconnected from science. Think of irony of sceptics being able to use the last report to deflate the increasingly wild claims of the alarmists. The problem might be that the last few remaining contributors with scruples will finally jump ship if the IPCC takes this route.

      • I do not see how individuals who scruples finally overcome their avarice or irrationality is a problem. We should welcome back all those whose insanity is dissipating. But, still be wary of trusting their judgments.
        “We won’t drive you away, but you certainly won’t be in charge any more. Furthermore, every time you open your mouths to express some opinion on how things should be run, we will remind you of your past stupidity.”

    • Wow, Mark, this is a great video that clearly shows that Greta is not getting the help she obviously needs. What kind of parent or adult would exploit a child in this way?

    • rd50: “why using polar bears to predict anything.”

      I dunno, rd. They’ve used monkeys with dart boards to predict the stock market. Why not give polar bears a shot at predicting the Global Average Temperature in 2050? They can’t do any worse than the models.

      So… do we have the bears spin a wheel or use the ol’ standard dart board? Take the average of three bears throwing three darts each?

      Papa Polar Bear: “My three darts hit Really Really Hot”

      Mama Polar Bear: “My three darts hit Really Really Cold.”

      Baby Polar Bear: “My three darts hit Juuuust Right.”
      ;o)

  2. Hi.
    My understanding is that walruses and polar bears are best suited for icy/snowy environment – they are the survivors there. Once there is no sea ice, they will have to compete for environment with species better suited for non-ice/snow environment (of course there may still be some snow and ice at times, but it will not be any longer characteristic of the area). So it’s all fine and well that areas where there was no other population actually allow temporarily those populations to thrive – but if the ice largely disappears they are doomed anyway. This article, although perhaps quite thruthfull about the fallings off cliffs, is similar to suggesting that because music is still playing Titanic isn’t sinking.

  3. The only thing being made to disappear in the arctic is all knowledge of the existence of the Gakkel Ridge sea floor spreading and volcanic zone. Though it has been thoroughly mapped by American submarines in 1986,it has been poorly monitored since. Together with the thinest crustal layer on the planet.The Gakkel Ridge is the northernmost extension of the Mid Atlantic Ridge system,which is one of the drivers of the gulf stream. It’s not rocket science to deduce that periodic volcanic activity would explain the various warming and cooling episodes during the last 100 years when ships have been able to traverse the northwest passage.There was open water at the north pole when three nuclear submarines including USS Hawksbill visited in 1986.Explain that alarmists!

    • J of C – your comment is very relevant. The USGS carefully shield much of the data. There are sea floor heat flow measurements collected since 1963. This map shows some of the traverses and note that there are considerable differences in heat flow. https://www.usgs.gov/news/ten-years-icy-data-show-flow-heat-arctic-seafloor
      Considering that there are numerous active volcanic centers and hydrothermal plumes on the sea floor along the Gakkel Ridge (and elsewhere) they are very seldom ‘mentioned’ in the context of ice melt and water temperatures. Funny that!

    • The mid-Atlantic Ridge is a driver of the gulf stream????
      Documentation please.

      Compared to the energy that falls on the earth from the sun, every day, the amount of energy from volcanoes is barely measurable.

  4. Typical propaganda. Drop the lie bomb, get extended attention by means of MSM, and continue playing the lie. This only works so long until the lie catches up with you and ALL the AGW lies have proven false. People aren’t that stupid that you can deceive them forever.

    • “You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” – Attributed to Abe Lincoln

      • That minor problem was fixed later in history.

        “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” — After 1945 (falsely) attributed to Joseph Goebbels.

    • This only works so long until the lie catches up with you and ALL the AGW lies have proven false.

      You can’t win. They just tell another.

      • And pretend that the previous lie never happened.
        Look at how hard they work to deny the New Ice Age lie from back in the 70’s.

        • … until it’s time to trot out the New Ice Age trope again when CAGW goes bust, and it will.

          Different crisis, same solution: Raise taxes, eliminate fossil fuel use, and form a One-World government.

  5. “We are told the Arctic is warming twice as fast as anywhere else in the world”

    Actually – we are constantly being told that everywhere in the world is warming twice as fast as anywhere else in the world.

    • Happy Little

      Now you are demonstrating your understanding of how worm holes work. If you realign your di-lithium crystals and clean out the plasma tubes, you can live forever in Lake Foregone where “…all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average.”

      You can add “and where everywhere is warming twice as fast as everywhere else.”

  6. I wonder how long they can keep the lies up about Polar Bears and Arctic climate with their numbers increasing?

  7. The polar bears are fine. It’s the birds, the bats, and other creatures that are not so Green compatible and are at risk.

    • The Bats are OK. Google “University of Southampton Bat Study” They spent two or three years trying to prove bats were vulnerable to climate change – but had to sheepishly conclude that the bats very adaptable and that the computer models about species extinction had to be changed.

      “Current methods for assessing vulnerability ignore the potential for some animal populations to adapt genetically to their changing environment, meaning they are able to survive in warming temperatures and drier conditions better than other populations within the same species.”

      • Bats don’t like freezing cold. Global warming by Co2 is supposed to warm up the nights. Combine this with Urban Heat Island effect and one can conclude that bats will do better.

        Two weeks ago a bat was lying on the ground. I called the animal-ambulance(whatever it is called). They took the animal with him and will take care of him. What more can we humans do for them. There are enough places for them to hide, they like cities and our parks and we help them if needed.

        The bat that was lying on the ground during the day was probally not going to make it, but it is the gesture that counts right.

      • SimonfromAshby September 24, 2019 at 12:53 am

        Less adaptable to wind turbines.

        Reply

        C.S September 24, 2019 at 1:06 am

        n.n is trying to say that they are being chopped up by wind turbines.

        ________________________________________

        Settled science already knows better about environment friendly bat choppers – thei’re lung expanders:

        https://www.google.com/search?q=bats+Windelecs+exploding+lungs&oq=bats+Windelecs+exploding+lungs&aqs=chrome.

  8. Perhaps if Susan Crockford went to the UN and pulled funny faces and had a princess hissy fit the world might take notice.

    • I wonder how people are actually reacting to being lectured by a 16 year old school dropout. Never mind the MSM which seem to find it amusing..
      My kids are are now 40 to 60 and still would not be so condescending.

  9. The problem is that this true information is hidden away on a few blogs and website, while the greens are doing protests and have the news media on their sides…. All of this true information and science is only helpful if we can get it out to the general population. I come on this site, read a few pages and my anxiety relaxes, then I see a news program about the greens doing protests and greta getting to speak to congress and I wonder why The truth isn’t getting past a few blogs and websites?? Surely their must be more truth seekers then greens???

    • During protest, people still put on polar bear suits. This tells me they are not digging for their own information.

  10. The problem is that this true information is hidden away on a few blogs and website, while the greens are doing protests and have the news media on their sides…. All of this true information and science is only helpful if we can get it out to the general population. I come on this site, read a few pages and my anxiety relaxes, then I see a news program about the greens doing protests and greta getting to speak to congress and I wonder why The truth isn’t getting past a few blogs and websites?? Surely their must be more truth seekers then greens???

    • Oh sunny! You would hope so, but half the population is below average IQ and the rest don’t care. Cynic: idealist’s term for a realist…..

  11. Of course there is a problem for Walrus and of course they are hauling out more, with all the consequences of that…

    Walrus rely on feeding from floating ice over shallow water, in which they find their food.

    these days the ice retreats rapidly, far from land, around the Alaskan and Siberian coast and into deeper water. There is simply nowhere for the walrus to feed from except land for longer periods.

    Here’s the sea ice today at the end of the melt season – look how far it has retreated

    https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_visual.png

    The orange line here shows the 1981-2010 median. Notice how much closer to the coasts?

    https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index

    • Shallow water is usually found pretty close to shore.
      There are plenty of places where Walruses are thriving, where sea ice is only found in the depths of winter.

    • Griff,

      Catch up and stop listening to Attenborough and WWF: biologists at the USGS determined in 2017 that Pacific walrus are not threatened with extinction due to reduced summer sea ice and are not likely to in the foreseeable future even if the ice retreats further and for longer. They feed quite adequately from land haulouts during the ice-free season. Furthermore, they have a boom-bust population cycle that is now at a high point.

      References here: http://polarbearscience.com/2019/08/07/alaska-waters-with-no-sea-ice-are-not-a-problem-for-pacific-walrus-or-polar-bears/

      • I really wish people would stop listening to Attenborough. He had integrity once, but that was a long long time ago.

    • “Walrus rely on feeding from floating ice over shallow water, in which they find their food.”

      How did the walrus on Sable island survive in that case? Or northern Norway? No ice at all there.

      By the way how much field experience of walrus do you have? My own (admittedly only from the Svalbard area) is that walrus normally haul out on land, even when there is sea-ice nearby.

  12. Chaswarnertoo. That’s not good enough in my books, the greens have no clue what will happen if fossil fuels are not used, yet they carry on. I have seen nobody take the big stage and say “CO2 warming is a lie” and here is the proof. All we get is the co2 seeing girl who knows no science and has spoken not one single fact, and the news media “OMG we have 8 months left”…. No talk of the solar cycles, earths tilt, the weak magnetic field, the south atlantic anomaly, etc etc… All it is, It will cost trillions of tax payers money to save the planet, and the people you claim of have low iq, will throw us in to mass debt and social decline

  13. So, the polar bears and walruses are fine.

    Doesn’t matter.

    People believe what they want to believe. And they want to believe. They desperately want to believe.

    Reality sucks. Life is hard. “Saving the planet” gives meaning and purpose to otherwise meaningless lives. Clever enough to abandon God, not nearly smart enough to outwit human nature.

  14. Perth is the Australian city which has warmed the most, since 1880.

    Perth has warmed by 1.65 degrees Celsius, since 1880.

    That is nearly twice the amount that Darwin has warmed, since 1880.

    In Australia, if any city had a good case for declaring a climate emergency, then surely it would have to be Perth.

    But wait. We have been talking about temperature anomalies, not real absolute temperatures.

    Are you brave enough to look at the real absolute temperatures that Perth has been enduring (timid people should not read this article – you have been warned).

    https://agree-to-disagree.com/global-warming-in-australian-cities

  15. Actually, fossils of a progenitor of the polar bear have been found and dated to 2.9 MYA – before the start of the Pleistocene and the two dozen or so major glaciation-interglacial cycles that followed. Meaning the polar bears have seen the most extreme weather the planet has ever experienced since the last “snowball earth” event roughly half a billion years ago.

    They can handle it, and obviously thrive with vast changes in glacial cycles.

  16. What leads to population crashes of both seals and polar bears is too much ice, and a lack of airholes where the mother seals can haul out and have their cubs. Baby seals can’t swim. The pups are easy for bears to catch and feast upon, but if there is too much ice there are no baby seals for bears to eat, and the bears starve.

    Apparently, during the last ice age, the way that the seals and bears survived was to move south with the edge of the sea-ice. It is a case of adapt or die.

    Apparently the Dorset Culture had no boats, and hunted seals by patiently sitting by air holes and then spearing the seals when they came up for air. The culture was in big trouble in the Medieval Warm Period, because there was no ice to sit upon. The Inuit were then at a big advantage, because they did have boats. Again it is a case of adapt or die.

    The U.N. would be far better off if they listened to mature women like Dr. Crockford, but apparently they prefer pigtails.

    https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2019/09/24/arctic-sea-ice-pigtails/

  17. I was yesterday looking up an article in BioScience, of polar bear fame here, and was surprised to find that their 5 year impact factor was 6.926. This seems rather high although I don’t keep track and have wondered exactly how they are calculated. The current one for the AMS, also of fame here, Monthly Weather Review is 3.146, no doubt accurate to parts per thousand.

  18. “there is no climate emergency anywhere”

    nor has there been any “climate emergency” since humans began writing down climate observations.
    The “big Flood” was the last climate emergency.

  19. Dang! I keep waiting for our resident Polar Bear expert, Rob, to weigh in and correct all of Dr. Crockford’s inaccuracies, but so far… no show.

    I’ll keep checking back. I want to see how Rob’s accumulated Polar bear knowledge in 50 decades as a practicing scientist stack up against Dr. Crockford’s decade or so of research.

  20. “Bad news. Polar bears are doing fine. Walrus colonies aren’t threatened. Baby seals aren’t being clubbed anymore, and we seem to have saved the Gray Whales and Bald Eagles. We need more Charismatic Megafauna.”

    “I’d like you to meet Greta. She can talk!”

  21. There, no “climate crisis” exists- we know that. So let’s all move on with solving real problems in the real world. Enough of the phoney CO2 induced crisis!

  22. A Climate Modeller Spills the Beans

    There’s a top-level oceanographer and meteorologist who is prepared to cry “Nonsense!”on the “global warming crisis” evident to climate modellers but not in the real world. He’s as well or better qualified than the modellers he criticises — the ones whose Year 2100 forebodings of 4degC warming have set the world to spending $US1.5 trillion a year to combat CO2 emissions.

    The iconoclast is Dr. Mototaka Nakamura. In June he put out a small book in Japanese on “the sorry state of climate science”. It’s titled Confessions of a climate scientist: the global warming hypothesis is an unproven hypothesis, and he is very much qualified to take a stand. From 1990 to 2014 he worked on cloud dynamics and forces mixing atmospheric and ocean flows on medium to planetary scales. His bases were MIT (for a Doctor of Science in meteorology), Georgia Institute of Technology, Goddard Space Flight Centre, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Duke and Hawaii Universities and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. He’s published about 20 climate papers on fluid dynamics.[i]

    Worth reading !

  23. 10 cool things to know about polar bears:

    https://www.churchillwild.com/10-cool-things-know-polar-bears-take-arctic-safari/

    ::

    They’re an ancient ancestor of the brown bear:

    Studies have shown that polar bears actually evolved from an ancestor of the brown bear into the polar bears we know today.

    Over a period of perhaps millions of years, they have become perfectly suited to survive the harsh, seasonal shifts of the Arctic environment they now call home.

    For example, they have a thick layer of fat (up to 11.4 cm!), beneath their fur, their ears and tails are small to limit heat loss, and their wide paws allow them to safely cross the sea ice.
    ___________________________________________

    Despite all catastrophic green belivers:

    https://global.hurtigruten.com/destinations/svalbard/inspiration/wildlife/polar-bear/14-facts-you-didnt-know-about-polar-bears/

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