More fake five-alarm crises from the IPCC

“Mainstream” news outlets dutifully feature climate cataclysm claims that have no basis in reality

guest post by Paul Driessen

Efforts to stampede the USA and world into forsaking fossil fuels and modern farming continue apace.

UN and other scientists recently sent out news releases claiming July 2019 was the “hottest month ever recorded on Earth” – nearly about 1.2 degrees C (2.2 degrees F) “above pre-industrial levels.” That era happens to coincide with the world’s emergence from the 500-year Little Ice Age. And “ever recorded” simply means measured; it does not include multiple earlier eras when Earth was much warmer than now.

Indeed, it is simply baseless to suppose that another few tenths of a degree (to 1.5 C above post-Little Ice Age levels) would somehow bring catastrophe to people, wildlife, agriculture and planet. It is equally ridiculous to assume all recent warming has been human-caused, with none of it natural or cyclical.

Moreover, as University of Alabama-Huntsville climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer has noted, this past July was most likely not the warmest. The claim, he notes, is based on “a limited and error-prone array of thermometers which were never intended to measure global temperature trends.”

The measurements come primarily from airports and urban areas that are artificially warmed by cars, jets, asphalt, air conditioning exhausts and other human heat sources that warm the measuring sites as much as ten degrees F above temperatures in rural areas just 10 to 25 miles away. They do not reflect satellite data or “global reanalysis estimates” that would give a much more accurate picture.

The “hottest month” assertions also ignore major changes in measurement technologies, especially for ocean data, over the past 100-150 years. Perhaps most important, they ignore the paucity or absence of data for millions of square miles of oceanic, Siberian, Arctic and other regions, many of which have much cooler temperatures that would drive “average planetary temperature” figures downward. (And let’s not forget the record cold temperatures recorded for February 2019 in many parts of the world.)

The news media, however, dutifully repeated the spurious hottest-ever assertion as fact – and made no effort to seek out or quote skeptical experts like Spencer. Far worse, most of the experts who developed and propagated the “overheated planet” claims know all of this. But they have a narrative, an agenda, and are not going to let inconvenient facts get in the way. The “mainstream media” behaves similarly.

Then, a few days later, the same doom-saying “experts” issued dire warnings that global agriculture is on the brink of disaster. A “landmark report” by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said our dangerously warming planet is continuing to damage lands and forests, imperiling mankind’s ability to produce food. Climate change has become a growing danger to global food supplies, it intoned.

Prolonged rains well into the 2019 Midwestern US spring season certainly delayed planting and could affect 2019 corn and other harvests. However, bumper crops elsewhere in the world cast serious doubt on this latest round of IPCC and media fear-mongering.

India’s rabi (winter) wheat crop weighed in at an official record of 101.2 million tons. Near-record corn (maize) exports and sunflower seed harvests were forecast for Ukraine. In Argentina, wheat farmers expect a record harvest. In Crimea too. The Canadian National Railway logged all-time grain movement records. The USDA’s October 2018 Crop Report showed record northern USA canola production.

Better hybrid seeds, biotech seeds, and modern fertilizers, pesticides, tractors and farming practices all played a role, as did weather that cooperated with farmers, if not with climate alarmists. However, another major factor is more carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earth’s atmosphere – which helps crop, forest and grassland plants grow faster and better, and also withstand droughts better. In fact, Dr. Craig Idso has estimated, rising CO2 levels generated some $3.2 trillion in cumulative extra global crop yields between 1961 and 2011, and another $9.8 trillion in predicted CO2-enhanced global crop harvests by 2050.

And now, in a bout of schizophrenia, the IPCC has further muddled its climate chaos message. Now it claims modern agriculture is not just a “victim of climate change.” It also causes climate chaos and must thus be part of “the solution.” Agriculture is responsible for over a quarter of total global greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide and methane), and therefore must change its practices “to save the world.”

Plant-fertilizing carbon dioxide is 0.04% of the atmosphere, and methane represents 0.00017% – of which one-third is from natural sources (termites, swamps and bogs) and two-thirds from human activities: 39% of that from fossil fuels, 16% from landfills, 9% from waste management and 27% from farms.

In other words, agricultural methane could possibly be 27% of two-thirds of 0.00017% of atmospheric methane (CH4) – and that barely detectable 0.00003% (30¢ out of $1-million) of the atmosphere is supposedly driving dangerous manmade climate change. And based on that, we must change our farming and eating habits.

Instead of beef, humans must switch to “nutritious and environmentally sound” alternatives like green pepper, soy, asparagus and squash, says the IPCC. Instead of the full package of beef, pork and poultry, we should eat buckwheat, soy, pears and kidney beans – or other “globally optimal plant replacements.” Of course, locusts, grasshoppers, grubs and other insects are also excellent protein sources, it notes.

The 20,000-some activists, bureaucrats and politicians heading to Salt Lake City for the August 26-28 UN climate change and sustainability conference will no doubt be following that sage advice. (Perhaps they’ll share their menu and Bugs Not Beef recipes.) They could also have had a global teleconference, instead of flying and driving halfway around the world – instead of spending millions of dollars, consuming millions of gallons of aviation and vehicle fuel, and emitting prodigious quantities of CO2 and CH4.

But they’re much more comfortable lecturing the hoi polloi of humanity on how we must travel, eat, and heat and cool our homes (no cooler than a comfortable 82 F in summer, say EPA-Energy Star experts) in more sustainable and climate friendly ways. UN elites much prefer to tell the poorest people on the planet how much they will be “permitted” to develop and improve their living standards.

Dangerous manmade climate change “deniers” like me were of course not invited to participate in this taxpayer-financed UN event. We never are. So the Heartland Institute organized a separate August 26 program nearby, at which alternative evidence and perspectives will be presented and live-streamed.

Heartland speakers will explain why climate change is some 97% natural, not manmade (contrary to that phony 97% consensus that says otherwise); and why real-world evidence does not support IPCC claims about dangerously rising seas, increasingly violent storms or worsening droughts. My talk will focus on why biofuel, wind, solar and battery technologies are not clean, green, renewable or sustainable.

I will point out for example that replacing 100% of US gasoline with ethanol would require some 360 million acres of corn – seven times the land area of Utah. Replacing the more than 25 billion megawatt-hours of electricity the world consumed in 2018 would require some 100 million 400-foot-tall 1.8-MW bird and bat-butchering wind turbines that would actually generate electricity only about 20% of the time.

Assuming just 15 acres apiece, those monster turbines would require some 1.5 billion acres – nearly 80% of the entire Lower 48 United States! And those wind turbines would need some 200 times more raw materials per megawatt than combined-cycle gas turbine power plants. Building and installing them would require massive increases in mining and quarrying all across the globe.

The UN and IPCC delegations and Green New Dealers absolutely do not want to talk about any of this – much less about slave and child labor for cobalt, rare earth and other metals that are the foundation for their make-believe “renewable, sustainable, no-fossil-fuel” future. No wonder they don’t invite us.

These are vitally important issues. They demand robust, evidence-based debates – with all interested and affected parties participating – including the world’s poor and manmade climate chaos skeptics.

Paul Driessen is senior policy advisor for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of books, reports and articles on energy, climate change, sustainability and human rights.

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48 thoughts on “More fake five-alarm crises from the IPCC

  1. “…the “hottest month ever recorded on Earth” – nearly about 1.2 degrees C (2.2 degrees F) “above pre-industrial levels.” … And “ever recorded” simply means measured; it does not include multiple earlier eras when Earth was much warmer than now.?

    Not true. The entire southern hemisphere has only had 10 thermometer stations continuously measuring temperatures from 1880 to now. It is physically impossible to accurately measure the temperature of 98,468,497 sq mi with 10 thermometers.

    Graphic showing thermometer stations in southern hemisphere 1880-2019
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECmDh2-XoAANy9F.jpg

    The northern half of the western hemisphere (49,234,248 sq mi) has had 17 thermometers stations for the same period. Again, impossible.

    This means for essentially 75% of the earth’s surface the data are simply made up. Research it yourself:

    https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v3/

    • It’s actually much worse than that. In the northern half of the eastern hemisphere, in the entirety of Africa there have been only 8 temperature stations, 7 of those being clustered in northern Liberia; there have been 3 stations in the area from the Arabian peninsula to Russia and China; 3 in China; 7 in transcontinental Russia; a few in SE Asia.

      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECrPd8pVAAAoxLo.jpg

      • Not to mention the mercury thermometer wasn’t invented until 1714, F scale in 1724, C scale in 1754, had a lot of initial capillary and glass quality control problems, much initial concern over failure of thermometers to continue their 0C calibration point over a couple of decades, and only became standard kit for explorers, surveyors, and fur trade outposts by about 1785…..Readings from the first hundred years are very suspect….sort of like a Model T speedometer would be considered today….

      • The whole idea of comparing one monthly average to the climatological 30 y mean of “preindustrial” is another deliberate misrepresentation. Classic apples and oranges. The variability of monthly means is much greater so sooner or later one single month will be 1.5 deg above pre-industrial. That does not mean we have arrived at the new “dangerous” level the activists invented when they realised it was going to take forever to reach that previous 2deg C figure which they has pulled out of the air.

    • THe overwhelming buk of the ‘data’ being simply made up is precisely why this monster is so marketable. Add in ‘expert scientists’ as the maker uppers and where does that leave the churnalists to obejectively examine the while issue.? Much easier to just go with the flow of propaganda.

    • When they publish things like this: “nearly about 1.2 degrees C (2.2 degrees F)”, I get the impression that they intentionally ignore the actual Fahrenheit equivalent of Celsius, so that they can imply that the 1.2C rise is the equivalent of a 38.4F rise in temperature.

      Why would they do anything so blindly stupid and completely incorrect? Well, isn’t it obvious? Water freezes at 32 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 0 degrees Celsius. Therefore, a 1.2 degree Celsius rise in average temperature MUST mean a corresponding 38.4 degree Fahrenheit rise, NOT a rise TO 38.4F.

      I know it’s stupid, and it’s incorrect, but this makes logical sense out of something so completely illogical. If they don’t have something like that in their arsenal of bad info/fibbing/wrong info, they have nothing.

      Think about it for a minute. It will make perfect sense to the uninformed, uneducated and ignorant, never mind those too lazy and/or dumb to figure out the truth for themselves. Most of their audience likely doesn’t know how to read thermometer, anyway, so pandering to hysterics works.

    • icsil,

      Actually, it is much, much worse than that. It is deliberate misrepresentation.

      July 2019 was NOT “…the “hottest month ever recorded on Earth” – nearly about 1.2 degrees C (2.2 degrees F) “above pre-industrial levels.” It was the HIGHEST MONTHLY AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY recorded for the Earth.

      Temperature and temperature anomaly are not the same thing.

      Each year the average global temperature rises by 3.8 degrees C from January to June and falls by 3.8 degrees C from June to January. This annual fluctuation of 3.8 degrees C in average global temperature is much more than the estimated 1.2 degrees rise of annual global temperature from “pre-industrial levels”.

      The annual fluctuation of 3.8 degrees C in average global temperature results from the northern hemisphere (NH) having much more land cover than the southern hemisphere (SH). Oceans change temperature much less than land with the seasons and it is summer in one hemisphere when it is winter in the other.

      Richard

  2. Those idiots need to get out of their bubbles .
    Or , should I say , they have lost the bubble ?

  3. Have we reached peak insanity yet?
    Recovery from the LIA is normal, call me when we have hippos in the Thames, again.

  4. “– nearly about 1.2 degrees C (2.2 degrees F) “above pre-industrial levels.” ”

    NOAA used the words….” above the 20th century average.”

    why?…because they can say a much bigger scarier number

    July was 0.07 degrees warmer than July 2016…..that’s right….7/100th of a degree warmer

  5. Why do you bother to comment on these ridiculous IPCC parasites, anyway.

    Let’s talk about something else

  6. Even if the remaking of the world economy were a desirable thing, and I doubt it is, then one can point to lack of adequate savings and finance, inadequate manufacturing base, inadequate transportation to move people and resources, also likely inadequate, to where needed. Then there is the issue of labor. It will take coersion on a scale matching Stalin’s Russia or Mao’s China to force people into the effort. We would have to practically abandon many other productive and necessary efforts.

    The 2020 election will be a good measure of how much of this stupidity people are willing to swallow.

  7. Fatal error:
    “Heartland speakers will explain why climate change is some 97% natural…”

    No it’s not and we know better. Is that Monckton? 97% as opposed to 100% natural is being a denier. And it’s being stupid and not caring about winning. Who is running Heartland? Making the other side look good. The left will come to you if you play this right.

    Could’ve said, mostly natural. 51% to 99% or something like that. Used 97% instead. How did they win what they have? By us saying things like 97% natural.

    “The measurements come primarily from airports and urban areas that are artificially warmed by cars, jets, asphalt, air conditioning exhausts and other human heat sources that warm the measuring sites as much as ten degrees F above temperatures in rural areas just 10 to 25 miles away.”

    No. Mosher owned on that one. It’s a tired failed argument. Most of the United States is flyover country. It’s all weighted by area. Finding a few things doesn’t really change the overall picture. You are quibbling over a small part of the total.

    UAH data is broadly consistent with GISS and every other one because they are all weighted by area. UAH data verifies that the UHI is minimal. Assign all the difference to UHI. Who cares? What’s that, 0.2 C over about 40 years?

    I have expectations to see your A game. Are you up to it?

    • Why argue about detail when the vast majority of data is fake? Pretending it isn’t doesn’t make it real.

    • What’s that, 0.2 C over about 40 years?

      That’s 0.05°C/decade. The total trend is about 1.3°C/decade. So, more than a third of the trend is just due to UHI. That’s not peanuts.

      • About half of that trend is due to ENSO and volcanoes. If another quarter is due to UHI then 75% is not climate based. Note this doesn’t even take into about that 80% of those 40 years have been under a warm PDO and a warm AMO.

    • Warmest July ever?

      a) my runner beans started flowering this week. Normally I am eating them around Aug 1.

      b) urban heat island. I love it when the weather forecast (measured at the airport) says it is 2C, and I am scraping frost off my windshield (tree lined street next to a park). But perhaps water now freezes at 2C in the climate crisis era.

  8. The 20,000-some activists, bureaucrats and politicians heading to Salt Lake City for the August 26-28 UN climate change and sustainability conference

    Stop right there. If this is so critical for the human race, we’ll expect that every one of those 20,000 ‘activists’ etc will demonstrate their leadership by refusing to live in ANY SORT OF air conditioning in SLC’s balmy summer season. Failure to provide that example will conclusively show them up as complete phonies.

    • Of the 20,000 how many have an income dependent on the continuation of the CAGW meme?

      Not pre-judging, just interested to know.

      • Crispin, 97% of the 20,000 attendance, to use a familiar number, should be a reasonable approximation.

    • I also expect to see a lot of insect protein in grocery stores to meet the demand of those who say that life on earth is at stake.

      • I saw an ant in the grocery store but it didn’t have a price sticker on it.

        Anyhow, I don’t think people are quite convinced yet that Leg o’ Grasshopper is every bit as good as Leg o’ Lamb.

        I’m not seeing any empty shelves in the Insect Aisle either, Steve O.
        ;o)

  9. According to the USCRN, the only network purpose-built to measure climate, there has been no warming in the lower 48 since the network began producing monthly data in late 2004. I do realize that the US is not the entire planet, but how does one warm the entire planetary climate yet create zero warming over half a continent?

    • Anybody have any insight into USCRN??
      I took a look recently, data runs Jan, 2005 through Sept., 2018. Data seems to run about a year behind.
      I get a Jaw-Dropping 0.57 deg/decade warming! Sky High.
      Here is NASA, NOAA and UAH for the same time frame.
      All numbers in degrees/decade:

      NOAA: 0.23
      NASA: 0.24
      UAH: 0.20

      USCRN: 0.57 !!!!!!

      Anybody got any thoughts?

      • TonyL, is this a trick question? USCRN shows basically no warming since it started in 2005…has been the point of a number of articles here at WUWT already.

        • Straight up! I am looking at the data!
          I am looking at 0.57 deg./decade warming. The data set is not showing what everybody says it shows. Get the data right here:
          https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/time-series
          Select – Time Scale: Previous 12 Months
          Hit the Download button.
          Tell me what you see.

          USCRN shows basically no warming since it started in 2005

          No, it shows 0.57 deg./decade warming.

          has been the point of a number of articles here at WUWT already.

          Ask me if I care what other people say about the data. I have my own copy.

          • Oh for Gawds sake. The damn thing is in F.
            And teeney, tiny, little letters F. on the axis.
            OK, that mystery solved.

            Now, 0.32 is still the highest by far. Way to high for an index which does not show any warming.

            Hat Tip to fred250

          • Tony,L, look at the graph

            The increased trend above UAH is only because the land temperature responded more to the recent El Nino hence the slight rise in trend, now coming back to match UAH USA48.

            The bulge of that El Nino has forced the trend higher.

            But URSCN also responds more to cooler temperatures, and that line will be back down with UAH in a few months.

  10. We’ve had the hottest August bank holiday (on record) this weekend.

    Oh, I forgot. It was the hottest by 0.1C and was a single measurement at Heathrow airport.

      • It is bloody hot today. A brief 3-day heatwave that just happened to coincide with the Late August Bank Holiday, which has only existed since 1971 anyway, so not surprising it’s the hottest. One of them has to be.

    • Heathrow is about as representative as my oven. How can they possibly compare readings at a place that has seen massive development and throughput over the last 50 years. I had hoped that there was at least ONE journalist in the MSM who could think straight. Sadly, I appear to have been wrong. It is all over the newspapers today.

  11. Of course, locusts, grasshoppers, grubs and other insects are also excellent protein sources, it notes.”

    Don’t forget the “poopburgers” developed by Japanese scientists about six years ago! (“Want flies with that?” I commented.)

  12. “Of course, locusts, grasshoppers, grubs and other insects are also excellent protein sources, it notes.”

    A childhood dare-penalty is to make the victim eat a bug. Is that what they’re up to? One of them has bet the other that he can make us eat a bug?

  13. “Assuming just 15 acres apiece, those monster turbines would require some 1.5 billion acres – nearly 80% of the entire Lower 48 United States! ”

    So? You weren’t going to anything useful with it anyway, were you?

  14. Article excerpt:

    University of Alabama-Huntsville climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer has noted, this past July was most likely not the warmest. The claim, he notes, is based on “a limited and error-prone array of thermometers which were never intended to measure global temperature trends.”

    Sorry bout that, ……. Dr. Roy Spencer, ……but I’ve been telling blog and forum readers that for the past 20 years or so …….. and they have never paid any attention to me either.

  15. The UN’s truth problem is already destroying the UN’s credibility .
    Who ever they are taking their marching orders from is making a
    serious miscalculation . Loose with the truth has shredded the global warmist industry
    but they have nothing else
    Global governance, communist style , is the aim and a pruning of hundreds of millions no doubt .

    Scratch a global warmest and you get a population alarmist .
    It makes some sense temperatures readings are recorded higher . Take them off asphalt , airport taxis ways
    and less on urban centers guess what happens ?
    Warming is good, cooling is bad and humans have virtually no control over the climate just like always .
    The big con is pretending otherwise .

  16. The IPCC is just a convenient front to hide bought scientists behind .
    Guaranteed the final drafts are written by rent seekers or globalist .
    Lets see the names of the IPCC report authors and their direct work contribution .
    Not some propaganda piece vetted through people trying to steal a buck .

  17. Plant-fertilizing carbon dioxide is 0.04% of the atmosphere, and methane represents 0.00017% – of which one-third is from natural sources (termites, swamps and bogs) and two-thirds from human activities: –>

    Plant-fertilizing carbon dioxide is 0.04% of the atmosphere, and methane represents 0.00017% – of which one-third is from natural sources (termites, swamps, bogs and fungus) and two-thirds from human activities:

  18. “India’s rabi (winter) wheat crop weighed in at an official record of 101.2 million tons. Near-record corn (maize) exports and sunflower seed harvests were forecast for Ukraine. In Argentina, wheat farmers expect a record harvest. In Crimea too. The Canadian National Railway logged all-time grain movement records. The USDA’s October 2018 Crop Report showed record northern USA canola production.”

    Maple syrup production 2019 raised 1% from 2018 production:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=maples+syrup+production+2019&oq=maples+syrup+production+2019+&aqs=chrome.

    https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-huawei&q=maple+syrup+production+2019&spell=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiv3b2xoKXkAhUwmIsKHSMwBvEQBSgAegQIChAC&cshid=1566984600949&biw=360&bih=518

  19. 2Jan2015
    At a news conference [22Jan2015] in Brussels, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework be adopted Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity, but to DESTROY CAPITALISM. “This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution,” she said . Referring to a new international treaty environmentalists hope will at change conference later this year, she added: “This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model for the first time in human history.”
    Investor’s Business Daily: http://news.investors DOTcom/ibd-editorials/021015the Paris climate
    -738779-climate-change-scare-tool-to-destroy-capitalism.htm#ixzz3RXh5Tujn

    IPCC official, Ottmar Edenhofer, speaking in November 2010:
    “But one must say clearly that we redistribute, de facto, the world’s wealth by climate policy. … one has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. Instead, climate change policy is about how we redistribute, de facto, the world’s wealth…” “This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy, anymore.”
    From Der Spiegel

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