Corn 2019: Climate Enters The Picture

Guest post by David Archibald

It is a remarkable thing that the UK and Irish parliaments were able to hypnotise themselves and pass climate emergency legislation when the southern half of the planet has not warmed at all in 120 years. For example this record of Cape Leeuwin (courtesy of Erl Happ), on the southwest corner of the Australian landmass, shows recent January mean maximum temperature back below the 120 average:

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Figure 1: Cape Leeuwin January Mean Maximum Temperature 1897 – 2019

The UK and Irish parliaments were able to work themselves up into a lather over climate even though parts of the northern hemisphere set new cold records this last winter. Perhaps a spike in food prices due to cold weather might be able to get them to see the world as it really is. What is happening in the Corn Belt this season may be enough to burn through the global warming groupthink.

It has been a very wet and cold start to the 2019 growing season in the Corn Belt with the consequence that a lot of farmers have not been able to get into their fields to plant. For example this graph is from the USDA’s Indiana crop progress report of May 20:

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Figure 2: Crop Progress, Corn in Indiana May 20, 2019

In a normal year most of the crop would be planted by now. It will now be delayed by a month if it does get planted. Unplanted corn and soybean acreage is at a 40 year high:

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Figure 3: Unplanted Corn and Soybean Acres after Week 20

Projections of likely corn production from here rely upon near perfect conditions for the rest of the season. But as a return to 19th century level solar activity will mean a return to 19th century growing conditions, then the other end of the growing season will be shortened as well. Seed producers have tuned their product to the longer and warmer growing conditions of the second half of the 20th century with corn that requires 2,500 growing degree days (GDD) to reach maturity. If the season looks like it is going to be short then farmers might switch to early maturity corn. Another alternative is to switch to soybeans. For 2019 there is “is not enough early maturity seed corn for everyone nor enough seed beans available to switch.”

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Figure 4: Whitestown, Indiana Cumulative GDD for 1901-1910 and 2001-2010

Figure 4 shows the difference between growing conditions last decade in red and the beginning of the 20th century in blue. Each of the blue and red lines is an individual year. Growing conditions last decade were warmer, longer and safer than a century before. The dashed black line shows the GDD for a corn crop planted on 27th May with the GDD trajectory of early 20th century heat profile. The chance of a crop be killed off by an early frost before maturity is not insignificant now.

Corn as a source of food for humans in the US has a buffer in the 30% of the crop that goes to the ethanol mandate. The focus in climate may also go from being a way to thrash the economy with carbon taxes to its impact on food prices. The Biblical “years of lean” may be upon us.

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare

114 thoughts on “Corn 2019: Climate Enters The Picture

    • But, but as has been pointed out below for it to be truly scientific you have to average.
      So on average the Soviet Union were well fed, and that little period of ‘disastrous crop failures’ does amount to a hill of beans.
      /sarc-off

    • Yes, I think Dave should also have looked at the previous cooling period. A 60yr quasi-cycle that is visible in the temperature records. While sceptics here trumpeting the hurricane drought, I had few comments on this cycle about 4 or5 yrs ago (I don’tknow how to locate these posts) and frecasted a return of busy Atlantic hurricane seasons al la 1950s. I cautioned we should be ahead of the curve on this to pre-empt the hype that eas certain to come. I believe I scooped the experts on this.

    • According to the link the SH has warmed at 0.1 deg per decade while the NH has warmed at 0.15 deg per decade.

      • How about according to HadCRUT3, which goes a lot farther back than 40 years? HadCRUT3’s methodology was developed in time to be published in a 2006 paper, so it had no considerations for hiding a Great Pause that had yet to be known. During the period covered by both HadCRUT3 and UAH v6 TLT, their warming rates for the SH agree. Here is a link to a plot of HadCRUT3, with a linear trend from 120 years ago to the last determination of HadCRUT3 in 2014, that trend split into two periods ending and beginning at 1973.67 (chosen to have endpoints close to meeting each other), and another trend for the period covered by both HadCRUT3 and UAH:

        http://woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut3sh/from:1899/plot/hadcrut3vsh/from:1899/trend/plot/hadcrut3sh/from:1899/to:1973.67/trend/plot/hadcrut3sh/from:1973.67/trend/plot/hadcrut3sh/from:1979/trend

        • If we are concerned that the planet is warming, the danger lies in an excessive daily maximum temperature in the warmest months. The Mean tells us nothing of interest. Changes in the mean may well be due to change in the overnight minimum.

          Just to keep the matter in perspective. An increase in the annual mean may be due to an increase in the winter mean. That’s usually highly beneficial. Particularly so in extra-tropical latitudes.

          Another perspective to bear in mind: Plant growth thrives best at 25°C. How does that compare to the average warmest month maximum temperature in the UK?

        • Yes, but the author was talking about the southern hemisphere which is dominated by oceans and therefore less affected by uhi if averaged out. Great graph, but until climate science can explain the huge drop and flatline of temps after the carbon orgy known as World War II and the flatline of temps after 1998 inspite of turbocharged Chinese and Indian consumption, it isn’t a science.
          BTW anyone have a good guess at how long it should have taken for all the soot in the air to precipitate after 1945? It should not have taken 20yrs right?

          • The WWII times did not have nearly as much emissions of CO2 as any post-2000 half-decade did. The post-1998 pause was in part from 1998 having a century-class El Nino, the pausing of global warming other than the warming by that El Nino was from late 2001 to early 2014.

        • Well, very poor as a general thing.

          The satellite temperature data, maintained by competing interests, is probably less bad than most. But it has still been kept from only a low point in the climate cycle, which means it tells us nothing about current temperatures relative to, say, the hot pre-WWII years.

          Other satellite data, notably GRACE and the various sea level satellites, are not maintained by competing interests and are notoriously subject to adjustment though “models” that build in desired biases. It is fortunate indeed that they haven’t dismantled the real tide gauges.

          ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle (@DeHavelle)

    • Simple answer is they adjusted their data.

      Complicated answer is they smoothed their data globally like incompetent morons.

      Difficult answer is I have yet to meet a climate “scientist” who understands that you CANNOT produce 0.1 degree accurate averages with thermometers marked in increments of 2°C let alone 2.5°F and read by farmers who had far better things to do than actually go out and read the damned things.

    • Jack Dale May 23, 2019 at 2:18 pm

      The southern hemisphere has warmed more than the global mean.
      Who cares. The article is about planting crops.
      WE SPOKE OF THIS BEFORE…
      Don’t tell us of temps. But rather climate where it has snowed where it is uncommon to snow.
      Or are you just going to wave your hands and babble.
      Name them. Give the details. Or show that you are intellectually unfit to speak on the subject.
      Feel free to comment on each instance explaining your view of the cause.
      I will got you a freebee it snowed in Flagstaff AZ last night. I live to the west. I will be using my wood stove to night.

      michael

    • He was obviously cherrypicking data. One month of the year, mean maximum, not mean average presented.

      You do not proclaim conclusions on such data.

      Very diffcult to trash warmists being as slapdash as this.

    • Read:
      The Southern Hemisphere has not warmed in the month of January for the last three decades.
      Cape Leeuwin has not warmed in December and January for 120 years.

      • However, David Archibald’s first sentence in this article is, “It is a remarkable thing that the UK and Irish parliaments were able to hypnotise themselves and pass climate emergency legislation when the southern half of the planet has not warmed at all in 120 years.”

  1. I WANT MY MONEY BACK!

    I sincerely hope climate sceptics find a way to eventually sue all our governments for the irresponsibility they have demonstrated relative to climate change.

    I want the taxes spent on useless renewable schemes refunded to the taxpayers who have unwillingly funded it all.

    And I’m serious about this. Can we start an objection database where we sceptics can all register our discontent with the climate scare, the beginning date of which starts the clock ticking on tax refunds. A sliding scale, as time goes on, the benefits of registering early increases as interest is accumulated.

    In some ways it might act as an incentive to encourage people to actually register their objection to what’s happening. Make it public, and if there are obvious fakers like Michael Mann registering, they can be called out. The rest, we just have to accept.

    How about billion $/£ lawsuits looming for governments as they press on with their virtue signalling vote machines; giving children the ability to vote and using the education system to persuade children, from early years, that climate change is fearful.

    The corruption is palpable and can only be exposed with money to pay lawyers, and some will take it on, on a no win, no fee basis.

    No sanction for government largess on this subject exists as far as I’m aware.

    • Id register
      but
      where do you reckon theyd get the money from?
      taxpayers or home small biz owners of course
      same old same old cos the big end of towns wont pay normal taxes now and the banks n govt sure dont
      and geting the money back from climate conmen? like gore n th rest who run the green bizscams etc ha ha ha yeah not.
      and all the green stuff wont be worth a cracker in a sale either when it all falls in a stinking heap, looking like tesla will be outta biz cars wise soon at this rate, what idiot would buy it out..

  2. “Working themselves up into a lather over climate” is the whole point of the ritual. “Having a hissy fit over the weather,” sounds too whiny. “Throwing a tantrum when it rains on my picnic,” sounds even less serious.

    Readers might have noticed by now that it’s mostly city folk, and politically inclined city folk at that, who run these repetitive, meme-like, doomsday scenarios over climate. Complaining about weather is as old as the hills, and as useless as crying “Wolf!” Eventually people will get wise that climate “science” is thin; political manipulation is thick.

    It’s hard to stampede country folk about normal fluctuations. Loggers, farmers and fisherman are used to battling the elements and losing some of the time. City folk are another story. They’re saturated with media misinformation, but scant first-hand knowledge. Horror show media have primed ’em for endless worries. As writer Michael Crichton pointed out in 2003, environmentalism has become the preferred religion of urban atheists. Any sort of guilt trip will suffice as a pretext for extreme political measures.

    I was a farmer for 34 years, and dealt with every imaginable weather emergency, except for tornadoes. You learn to roll with weather, despite all setbacks. It’s much harder to roll with irrational regulations, and with urbanized hypochondriacs telling you how to do your job when they haven’t the slightest idea what they’re talking about.

    Just for starters, virtually every weather forecast calls a rainy day “bad weather.” It’s only bad if you’re city bound, and looking forward to an outdoor adventure on your day off. If you’re a farmer and you need the rain, it’s a blessing. It means you have to irrigate less often. You catch up on your indoor chores, maybe even take a nap on a Saturday. Climate panic has gotten so ludicrous, people in Sweden, Minnesota, even Canada, are breaking into night sweats for fear that spring might arrive “too early” now and then. Climate change is being scapegoated for everything from bugs moving north, bugs moving south, to tribal warfare in places that have suffered recurring tribal warfare throughout recorded history.

    • “As writer Michael Crichton pointed out in 2003, environmentalism has become the preferred religion of urban atheists. Any sort of guilt trip will suffice as a pretext for extreme political measures.”

      This brilliantly distills and encapsulates the current situation. Thank you.

    • It’s not just farmers, Tom.

      I’m sitting on my terrace with a cup of coffee (it’s noon in the middle of France) for the first time this year after the coldest May, so far, of the last quarter-century but already watching for some desperately needed rain.

      It may be just a few rows of peas and beans and tomato plants and such but any gardener is as concerned in his own way to get the best from his crop. It may not be my living but it’s still extra cost next winter if the crop fails.

      Which is why it’s frustrating to watch gardening “experts” prattle on about the crops we are going to have to grow in the future and — this season’s obsession — how to avoid single-use plastic pots!

      • “This season’s obsession — how to avoid single-use plastic pots!”

        Hilarious!!

    • Well said. It’s noticeable that the green voters are thickest in the most affluent suburbs. There are enough of them in one particular electorate in Victoria to elect a representative to the lower house of the Federal Parliament in Canberra, Australia. That’s one nationally. But if you listened to the Government owned broadcaster in Australia, the ABC, or the BBC in Britain you could imagine that Climate Change is the most important issue facing mankind today and that the broadcasters are speaking for the majority of electors. The broadcasters don’t reflect public opinion, they are evangelists for a minority viewpoint, and a tiny minority at that.

  3. “Its now different here in New Zealand, we have idiots passing “Climate emergency motions”

    • In the Adelaide Hills we have local councils passing motions to encourage action against the climate emergency.

      Is ‘climate emergency’ the new catch-phrase to replace ‘global warming/climate change/climate weirding/etc as none of those seemed to garner the required responses from the populace and make them sufficiently afraid?

    • Yes, apparently all our first responders are on their way to Christchurch to help deal with the climate emergency declared by the city council. The Fire Service will be helping cool down overheated people with their hoses, the army will be sandbagging the coastline against the flooding seas and the police will be directing traffic fleeing to the hills.

    • Sure it does. If the mean Jan temp (one of the hottest months) is the same today as it was 120 years ago, it means the temps are extremely stable and there’s nothing else you can say about it.

      • Okay, we know what the 100 year January trend line looks like. But what about the other months? Maybe the trends might be up or down. That might be interesting. What if we had all the months combined into an annual average? What would that 100-year trendline look like? Obviously, I am not a statistician. I’m just a retired civil engineer trying to understand the facts.

    • “I don’t think a graph of January mean temperatures means very much.”
      It isn’t even mean, but mean max, in just one location. It’s not clear why those NH parliaments should yield to such obvious cherrypicking.

      • “It isn’t even mean, but mean max, in just one location.”

        Well, you could check out the Tmax for other locations, too. The other locations will show a similar Tmax where it is no warmer today than it was in the past. There is no unprecedented warmth today, it’s been just as warm in the recent past. All you have to do is look at a Tmax chart (or a regular temperature chart before it was modified by Climategate Charlatans). There is no CAGW.

        Check out the Tmax charts in this article below. They all show it was just as warm in the recent past as it is today. The same applies to the southern hemisphere.

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/15/it-is-the-change-in-temperature-compared-to-what-weve-been-used-to-that-matters-part-2/

        If we want to know when it was the hottest, which is the whole focus of the CAGW narrative, we should use the Tmax charts. Of course, it we use the Tmax charts then the CAGW narrative is exposed as a fraud, so that’s why you don’t hear much mention of Tmax from the CAGW Gurus.

      • Nick, do you think it’s meaningless that any location could show no warming for over 100 years? Supposedly we’re talking a global phenomenon, and yet there it is.

        The NOAA GHCN Monthly data for the contiguous USA shows only about a half-degree of warming over the last 120 years.

        People like to point out that the US is a small percentage of global land area, but so what? It’s still not warming at the same rate as other regions (and I think has cooled a bit over the past 5 years or so), and “the science ” doesn’t seem able to notice it, much less explain it.

    • January average daily maximum temperature for Cape Leeuwin. Next to February, the warmest month. No increase for 120 years. No danger of overheating at Cape Leeuwin. So much for global warming. So much for the greenhouse effect. No increase in January temperature for the entire southern hemisphere for thirty years! Not significant?

  4. “The Biblical “years of lean” may be upon us.” – article

    A small XXX cubic foot freezer (size depends on your family) is inexpensive to buy, won’t run up your electric bill and will store quite a bit of food that you can buy frozen for future use, frequently on sale or use coupons to drop the price, and is good for at least 3 years, sometimes more, unless you use it up quickly. Canned foods are now getting a 3-year end date, too.

    I always thought buying stuff in bulk is kind of silly, until I realized that many constant trips to the grocery store aren’t really necessary.

    • They put a “best if used by” date on million year old salt …
      I think its targeted at the gullible.

    • If you are going to store food in a freezer, you had better make sure you have bomb-proof electrical reliability and/or a backup generator.

    • buying stuff in bulk is kind of silly,

      Until you need it.
      A 2 to 3 week supply of things is a good idea. Medicines!
      For each member of the household.
      Don’t forget drinking and water for food needs, & water to flush the loo.
      Have drinking water in your freezer — find out why.
      Think calories of things you and yours eat. Have sugar and flour, or pancake mix.
      Do you have an emergency cooking surface?
      Canned food works well. No need to buy a sack of dry beans.
      Apples and oranges last — banana does not, unless dried. Eggs do.

      The web is full of ideas. Look. Add a little to your stash each week until you feel comfortable.

      • The stuff you need to survive tends to be cheap until you desperately need it. Then you won’t have enough money.

      • * Sacks of beans are cheap and store for long periods.
        * Dried corn lasts decently, longer if the germ is removed.
        * Bags of rice keep well for over a year with minimal decline of fragrance.
        * Canned beans last longer than their alleged “use by” dates.
        * Dried foods keep quite well for months.
        * Sealed freeze dried foods are like miracle foods in quality and freshness, so long as they were a obtained at a decent price.
        * Many squash fruit, e.g. pumpkins, butternut are long keeping fruit and are good for many months. Some will last past a winter.

        * Pop-top easy open canned foods do not last like the regular canned foods. Foods in these cans can spoil soon after the “use by” dates.

        Frozen foods are a great idea, so long as your electricity is dependable.
        Where I live, we’ve had three major outages since January 1. One outage was two and a half days. Another outage was just over 1 day, the third outage was eight hours.

        I do keep a freezer. But, that allows me to buy food in bulk for this year’s consumption.
        One should buy a freezer that is not frost free. Frost free cycles quickly cause freezer burn.

        I prefer upright freezers because they are easier to keep orderly. Nor does hang have to keep one’s head upside down in the freezer to reorder the contents.

        • A friend of mine who keeps a 90-day supply due to his religion says to store beans and corn and wheat and etc. in containers of nitrogen only, purging all the oxygen. That’s also how they ship ripe bananas from South America to U.S. markets. I haven’t tried it myself, but you know he’s right!

        • Learn to make Jerky! Freezer burn and/or year old meat ‘lost’ in the back/bottom of the freezer works just fine. Fresh venison less the choice cuts is even better. It will shrink to about a quarter the volume and last another year or two if then stored in the freezer. Worcestershire sauce is the main marinade ingredient. A sandwich bag full will keep me and 2 active bird dogs going for more than 10 miles in the mountain in the roughest place you can find which is where the grouse will reside. The dogs will love you for both the hunt and the treat!

    • I have long since come to the conclusion that “use by” dates are a scam.
      When I was in the army in 1970, in my ration pack there was a can of corned beef marked as having been packed in 1918.
      It tasted fine (after the usual saturation with ketchup and mustard)

      • Unintended consequences of government action always triumphs.

        Once upon a time in Northeast Montana: Montana law specified max 10 days to “sell by” date for milk. Local dairies were in Williston, North Dakota, where state law specified a 2 week allowance to “sell by” date. Stores in Mt. receiving deliveries from ND had to hold milk for 4 days before putting it out for sale.
        A Mt. rule intended to insure milk there was never as old as was allowed in ND instead guaranteed some Montanans had milk that was never as fresh as that sold in nearby ND.

        SR

    • stored dry most cans will do 5 yrs
      tuna n fish are the only ones id worry about past 3
      dehydrated is better for longevity if not colour and less power to dry and zero to store, and when power goes off its ok too

      • I’ve considered stocking up in case of food shortages; however, I decided not to as for sure the government via military would confiscate the supplies, including our tank water, and force us to go to central meal centres, at least in urban areas.

        • Quite right, Dana.
          We have absolutely nothing stored here too, in fact it would be a waste of time for any govrnment officials to come round, they wouldn’t find a thing.
          🙂

  5. The current issue with soybeans are the imposed duties by China.
    Economics also plays a significant role.

    • Soybeans to China are used to feed the pigs which Chinese have a huge appetite for.
      But China is having to slaughter huge portions of its swine population recently in attempt to stop African Swine Fever viral outbreaks.
      https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/african-swine-fever-spread-update-chinas-slaughterhouses

      China will be buying lots of frozen pork on the international market, including the US. American soybeans feeding US grown pigs, supplying China with pork — MAGA. This will help alleviate the impacts to soybean farmers and soybean prices, but pork will likely be going up in the next few years until China’s pork industry recovers.

      • “American soybeans feeding US grown pigs, supplying China with pork — MAGA. This will help alleviate the impacts to soybean farmers and soybean prices,”

        President Trump announced yesterday that he was going to take $16 billion out of the $100 billion+ China has paid in tariffs so far and use it to pay the farmers for any losses they have because of the trade negotiations with China.

        China sought to target and hurt American farmers as a means to put pressure on President Trump but it looks like Trump has found a way around that pressure and is going to pay American farmers with Chinese money.

        MAGA! Indeed! 🙂

    • I watched a video the other day where a US farmer was saying it was lucky the Chinese didn’t want his soybeans because it was unlikely he’d be able to produce enough to meet normal demand due to the floods.

      • The Iowa hog farms are going to be cleaning up on prices for pork bellies next year.
        Pork Belly futures!!!!

      • Just wait until China gets hit with adverse spring weather phenomenon in the upcoming years. Xi recently spoke of the “New Long March” due to the tariffs battle, but changing weather patterns will put real meaning to that term for the Chinese nation.

        Other than that, the status quo trade agreements between China and the Western world had to come to an end. What sense does it make to enrich a nation who boldly asserts that they will be the world’s greatest military force in 30 years? China needs to be put on a short leash, and held tightly. That is unfortunate for its people, but what else is there to do with their government bent on world domination.

        • Interesting about China and world domination when the ‘exceptional’ nation has 1000+ military bases and installations around the world, dominates NATO and woe to any country that does not accept its hegemony … sanctions and more sanctions, etc.

          • “Interesting about China and world domination when the ‘exceptional’ nation has 1000+ military bases and installations around the world, dominates NATO and woe to any country that does not accept its hegemony … sanctions and more sanctions, etc.”

            The U.S. just doesn’t want insane dictators acquiring nuclear weapons and the U.S. is willing to go to war to stop them. Sanctions are just the first step. If the mad dictators don’t want to bow to U.S. “hegemony” then they are going to cease to exist. Trump isn’t playing games. The psychos are just hoping the Demorats can oust Trump and then they hope they can get a cowardly Demorat they can bully.

            Trump is going to blow these fools up if they aren’t careful. He will get reelected and the psychos are going to get to suffer under sanctions for four more years. And if they can’t keep themselves from doing provocative actions then they may not have four more years to worry about it. They think they are going to outlast Trump. Maybe not.

          • Listening to the video. Still does not change my negative opinion about the Chinese Communist government, and their long term intentions.

            China still has hundreds of millions of people to raise up out of poverty. So why are they going to spend large sums over the next 30 years in order to become the greatest military power in the world? What nation/s threaten China?

          • Currently, Washington is repeating the error that precipitated the war with Japan. In particular one notes that technology transfer is the essence of humanity. A spirit of generosity is not only desirable but in relation to international trade treaties, obligatory.

            Yukon Huang should have a seat at the table advising president Trump.

  6. The KT22 chair lift at Squaw Valley set a record 2 years ago by being skiable top to bottom until May 21. This year, it’s still spinning and with the recent spate of cold snowy weather over the last couple of weeks, it may still be spinning in June. The resort currently has plans to remain open during weekends after Memorial day through July 8’th.

  7. A cooling world and cold is far way the bigger danger to humanity.

    Global warming alarmism has always been junk science and will leave human society ill-prepared for its ramifications regarding energy usage and demands.
    Here in the US, if natural gas prices hadn’t gone down due to fracking, but instead had continued their rise as expected in the 2000’s, we would be in serious economic and societal hurt right now due to Obama’s and the Left’s War on Coal.
    And our agricultural sector is completely dependent on fossil fuels for food production. All the farming machinery runs on either diesel, propane, CNG, or gasoline. Many irrigation pumps run on diesel generators. Ammonia fertilizers are made using natural gas. If the idiotic Left had succeeded and the prices on those fuels would have skyrocketed under a Cap-and-Trade or direct Carbon Tax, then those added costs would simply have been a pass-through to all of us in the grocery store.

    And the government revenues from those schemes would simply have propped up more Greenslime subsidies to wind and solar that solved no problem and only created more of their own for the grid. Democrats and the Greenslime funding each other off the backs of the little guys wages, while the rich elites would have felt little if any pain.

  8. When I was a kid growing up in the corn belt farmers didn’t even think about planting corn until about May 10. They’d then start work with their 6 row planters and maybe plant 80 acres on a good day. Today they go at it in mid April with their 36 row planters and they plant 500 to 800 acres in a day.

    It’s still too early to worry about a failed corn crop. Watch them make up time when the weather breaks.

  9. 10 years before the Global Cooling scare peaked in 1975….
    the Nebraska Floods of 1966.

  10. “What is happening in the Corn Belt this season may be enough to burn through the global warming groupthink.”

    The author hasn’t been paying attention. Because it’s “climate change” and not “global warming”, any change is bad, and caused by humans. It won’t matter if we go into another LIA (or worse) cold regime, humans will be blamed. Period.

    • Yeah, but people who’ve been told for decades that the Earth is getting warmer and we’re all going to die because Global Heating are just going to shake their heads and walk away once the loons start claiming that CO2 is causing Global Air-Conditioning. Besides which, food production would crash and people would have more important things on their minds, like where their next meal is coming from and how tasty their neighbours are starting to look.

      There’s no way the minimal support remaining for the scam can survive a Little Ice Age.

      • They’ve already been claiming that. And they get more and more press, not less.

        • And fewer and fewer people care what the press says.

          The more they screech, the more we tune it out.

          • Thanks for posting the link, John, but I for one won’t be clicking. I have stopped watching or looking at anything from the Brussels Broadcasting Corp which has anything to do with “science” in any shape or form.

            The GLOBAL CLIMATE EMERGENCY is referred to or examined in every vaguely scientific program and there is scarcely a news broadcast without a five minute slot for the latest weather disaster/ecological collapse/famine/war caused by (they insist) CAGW. Other programs are just as likely to be infected. Countryfile is now unwatchable and there was even a cookery program a while back which discussed how we should be changing our diets because “climate”. After you with the locust bhuna.

            I find it quite cathartic whenever someone utters the words “Scientists say …” to scream back “No they effing well don’t” at the tv, my wife is beginning to doubt my sanity. Were it not for her incomprehensible addiction to Eastenders the tv (and license fee) would be long gone.

    • “It won’t matter if we go into another LIA (or worse) cold regime, humans will be blamed. Period.”

      That’s right. Humans were definitely being blamed for the “Global Cooling” in the 1970’s.

      “Global Warming” is the same old tune, second verse.

      If it gets colder, some genius is going to blame it on humans and will have a plan to fix the problem although it will cost a LOT of money, and they will claim there is no choice but to act.

      Scaremongering is the common denominator here. No matter which direction the temperatures go.

  11. What are the minimum qualifications, diplomas, licences, certificates, prior experience required to work as parliamentary ?

    Actually, none.

    An office boy has to present a more substantial qualification portfolio than a party leader. From there, sky’s the limit.

    • In South Africa, the majority of members of Parliament (and of the provincial legislatures) have never had a paid, useful job in their lives. I think this may be common to most ‘democracies’, although I believe that in the USA, many of the legislature, national and state, are lawyers. Ha! But I did say “useful job”…

  12. If the corn crop for 2019 is way less than normal, it will be blamed on Climate Change.

  13. This is a mass neurosis, no doubt about it. It will be studied for years.
    Meanwhile…..”Extinction Revolution” are lying down in the centre of the road here in Melbourne today.
    Bring the street sweepers!

    • This mass neurosis is latest hysteria in continuum of very scary things. Nuclear war, ice age with oil left only 10 years, this clobal warming / climate change / . These all are/were real and things which we must take care now.

      UN keeps these horrors up. They all were, are and will be ways to collect taxes. The manuscript is modified to suit new storyline, but the story is same.

      Real scary thing is how easy it is to create totally absurd mass hysteria which almost everybody accept as the only truth.

      Thinking is so old fashion thing from the past. And all other things which were important to learn in schools.

      Our universities asked companies to tell them which skills they would like to be better , so they could teach things to fill companies needs. Answer was very big surprise to all.
      Main message was : We would like to have people who can write.

      Social Media has killed thinking and writing, because they are not needed anymore. And that´s scary!

      • I had the dubious pleasure of sitting next to a very high ranking police officer at a recent function and asked him for the reasoning behind the recent talk of UK police entry being graduate only. His reply was basically that this was the only way to avoid the cost of foundation courses in numeracy and literacy.

        I suppose I should not have been surprised as this is the first time in the history of our education that school leavers are less numerate and literate than their grandparents, seems to go along with an total lack of critical thinking as well. Sorry mods, OT again.

      • “Real scary thing is how easy it is to create totally absurd mass hysteria which almost everybody accept as the only truth.”

        I think it is mass brainwashing and what the masses are being brainwashed with is what is causing the hysteria.

        The problem is the Loony Left/Socialists have gained control of all the means of mass communications in the Western world and they are using it to spread a false reality that CO2 is harmful to the Earth and the public, that is scaring some people to death.

        That in itself might not be enough to convince people, but then we have all the scientific establishment coming down on the side of CAGW, so what is the public to think?

        The Leftwing Media has turned into a Socialist Propaganda Machine and is a true danger to all of our personal freedoms. We cannot govern ourselves properly unless we have the truth and all we get are leftwing/socialist lies out of the Media today.

        The Left has created a false reality in which they live and they have the Leftwing Media broadcasting that false reality every minute of every day. It’s no wonder people are confused.

        But the bottom line on CAGW is there is no evidence that it is real regardless of what the Leftwing Media or the Science establishment says. It’s easy to find out if this is true or not, just ask them to provide you with even one piece of evidence establishing that CAGW is real. They cannot do so. A real smart, quick Alarmist would jump in here right about now and dazzle us with their display of evidence, but don’t hold you breath waiting for that to happen because they don’t have any evidence to offer.

        And the bottom line on the Leftwing Media Propagand Machine is “you can’t fool eveyone all the time”. Their ratings are hitting rock bottom and lots of people don’t buy what they are selling.

        We’ll see in the next election just how influential the Leftwing Media remains. The last few elections haven’t been going their way despite the barrage of propaganda. I have a feeling the US Democrats are going to be in for a big, bad surprise come the election of 2020. They are going to see a backlash like never before, imo, over their obsession with trying to oust Trump. They let the whole country go to hell because they refuse to give Trump a win on anything and they focus on this delusion of theirs that Trump somehow broke the law if they can just find it.

        Trump is probably the most honest president we have ever had and the Democrats do this to him.

        Well, Trump has now decided to declassify all the documents pertaining to this Witch Hunt by the Obama administration and the current Democrat congress and the American people will get to see the truth of the matters.

        President Trump, the most transparent president in U.S. history.

    • I was hoping the rain would arrive early. so far zip out west ;-(
      doubt if theyd had any lie down on a soggy melb roadway

  14. “It is a remarkable thing that the UK and Irish parliaments were able to hypnotise themselves and pass climate emergency legislation when the southern half of the planet has not warmed at all in 120 years”

    Remarkable? They didnt care much when they had colonies and outposts down there, why would it even cross their minds now? Maybe after Brexit when they want trade deals?

  15. Must have been a hole in the plant food layer over Cape Leeuwin in January so they’ll need more grants to study this and come up with some suitable recommendations. I suspect only EVs will be allowed on the Cape Leeuwin Road shortly.

  16. The USA is a big place and farmers are smart.
    Watch adjustments take place.
    Yes, some ag-regions will hurt this year.
    It has ever been so.

  17. In the Southern ‘Alps’ of the Great Dividing Range in the Land of Oz there have been a series of great ski seasons beginning about the time ‘Dr.’ Wotzit said ‘Children will not know what snow is’ – the Year before Snowmageddon froze the NH.
    If you live in the High Country you pay attention as you need to know the latest dates before you stock up for the winter.
    A couple of years ago there was ‘unprecedented’ snowfalls in March – damned AGW at it again – but it quickly melted. Last year was ‘normal’ with light melting snow in May and the ski season opened in the first week of June (on the due date). Instead of closing in September it went through to late October.
    This year snow fell in April – and did not entirely melt. There is already enough snow to begin skiing, but the resorts were not prepared. Why not? Well, it could be because they paid a fortune to the Climate Consultant Oracles a few years ago for a report that said they were doomed thanks to AGW. Might as well head for the beach.
    Like the South Sea Bubble, Tulipmania, the Hale-Bopp Comet signal of the end of the world and the Jim Jones cult, one day some people will wake up to the scam and wonder how they could ever fall for so obvious a deliberate fraud. Maybe …

  18. “….. when the southern half of the planet has not warmed at all in 120 years.”

    “For example this record of Cape Leeuwin (courtesy of Erl Happ), on the southwest corner of the Australian landmass, shows recent January mean maximum temperature back below the 120 average:”

    That station is a very poor example with which to make an extrapolation to Australia let alone to a whole hemisphere, for geographical/meteorological reasons…

    In fact you/Happ have managed to cherry-pick the coldest place in Australia during this past Jan warmest month on record to “demonstrate” that the SH “has not warmed in 120 years” ….

    http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap/temperature/meananom/month/colour/history/nat/2019010120190131.gif
    From…
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/archive/201901.summary.shtml

    Notice that the edge of SW Australia was below average and the edge some 2C lower.
    Why is it difficult to realise that local climatology makes looking at a single station disengenuous.
    (Rhetorical).
    Cape Leeuwin is a peninsular surrounded on >3 sides by ocean. Onshore winds will dominate. And in January a near constant SE’ly blows….

    https://www.windfinder.com/windstatistics/cape_Leeuwin

    Temperature is therefore dominated by the SST’s upwind.
    Here is the latest SST anomaly data…..
    https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat6_t2anom_1-day.png

    Notice the ocean to the south has a cold anomaly currently.

    • Anthony Barton.
      I didn’t write that the southern half of the planet has not warmed in January for 120 years. See below for what I wrote about the southern half of the planet.

      It’s obvious from the BOM supplied graph that Cape Leeuwin in the last three years is no warmer, in terms of the January average daily maximum than one would expect if temperatures simply oscillated about a central tendency. The full text of what I wrote about Cape Leeuwin is here: https://reality348.wordpress.com/2019/04/13/climate-change-in-margaret-river/

      But I will say this, and its very important. In terms of decadal averages, and in respect of the entire Southern Hemisphere, the most recent decade is no warmer in January than it was three decades ago. So, my conclusion is that there is no greenhouse effect. Do you disagree with that assertion? Data and argument here: https://reality348.wordpress.com/2019/05/14/there-is-no-carbon-pollution-effect-the-proof/

      • Earl:
        “In terms of decadal averages, and in respect of the entire Southern Hemisphere, the most recent decade is no warmer in January than it was three decades ago.”

        No lets take the whole year eh ……

        https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/web_figures/hadcrut4_annual_sh.png
        https://agree-to-disagree.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Compare-Graph-6.png

        “So, my conclusion is that there is no greenhouse effect. Do you disagree with that assertion? ”

        Well it’s certainly warmed on an annual basis, and I do, as all of empirical science this last ~150 years does, disagree with your assertion.

        • Well Anthony, you have a problem in logic.

          CO2 is well mixed. Its effect should be apparent in every month of the year.

          The absence of the supposed effect in January ………hypothesis rejection. That’s fundamental. If you want to insist that the hypothesis still has legs, don’t pretend to be practicing ‘science’.

          • I am horrified at the notion of defending climate change hypotheses, which I have opposed since the “global cooling” of the 1970s.

            Yes, CO2 is demonstrably well-mixed in the atmosphere. But water vapor, the major “greenhouse gas,” is not. Average humidity can affect the operation of CO2 as a “greenhouse gas” and tends to vary by season throughout the year.

            Thus, humidity by month at a given site should be taken into account to test the warming aspect of 400PPM of CO2 in the atmosphere. From all the evidence, it is small and moderated instead of amplified by changes in water vapor, including the heat pumps in the atmosphere that Willis has illustrated at length.

            So it is not that your statement was wrong per se, it is that the argument supporting it was too simplistic.

            ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle (@DeHavelle)

          • If you are referring to Cape Leeuwin I might agree. A decline in humidity in January could skew the warming tendency so as to reduce the supposed greenhouse effect at 34° south, especially given the expansion of the Hadley cell as mid latitude surface pressure has increased.

            But, for the hemisphere as a whole to be no warmer in January after three decades…….and that supposedly due to a decline in the water vapour content of the atmosphere over the summer months, no that’s an unlikely scenario. Clutching at straws.

            The fact is that there are very good reasons, relating to changing pressure relations and winds that occurs predominantly in winter, in both hemispheres, why the warming should been concentrated in winter.

            Knowing when the warming occurs is a necessary part of the effort to diagnose the cause.

  19. My home nation Ireland is literally, not figuratively, run by the UN and EU bureaucratic institutions.

    Families who have been harvesting bog peat for generations in a pretty sustainable way, became criminals for continuing to do so, because of the UN.

    Ireland’s liberal politicians are like children holding on to the apron strings of mother international institutions, they need to, they do not have the imagination nor ability to take Ireland forward as a nation, by themselves.

    It’s rooted in Ireland’s religious conservative past, which is not so distant, where the church had as much power as the government.

    This rejection has overshot the mark, and Ireland has gone full libtard, rejecting the values Ireland once stood for, especially the sanctity of life.

  20. In the last few weeks I’ve been looking over the NOAA Monthly summaries and working graphs on various parts of the world, I’ve noticed a lot of places have cooled over the last 3-10 years — a lot of variance, no doubt.

    Of course, climate-wise, this doesn’t mean a lot; but doesn’t it mean something weather-wise? If, say, India has a barely negative trend at 98% of its weather stations since 2014, that’s just weather to this point. At the same time, it’s not warming, either. “Climate change” can’t be blamed for the weather if the weather isn’t doing anything — and hasn’t for the past 5 years, either.

    It might only be a blip, but in the here and now it may as well be the climate. What meaning does it have to say the climate is rapidly warming, when the weather has been cooling for five years?

    I feel like I’m not explaining myself well. Maybe I’ll be able to do better when I’ve looked at the data some more.

    • James, I strongly suggest you look at monthly minima and maxima rather than daily mean annualized data. Work out when the warming, or cooling is occurring. That will point to the mode of causation.

      • I’ve using the NOAA GHCN-Monthly summaries, not the daily data. I use the monthly summaries because that’s what Steven and Nick use, and I want to be able to compare my results with theirs. For example, in a comment from Nick at his website, when I asked him what criteria he used to select stations for his baseline, he said the least squares approach lets you use all the stations. After filtering for quality issues and plain old missing readings, of course.

        So I thought about that for a while, and then I wondered: what would the results be if you took the readings for a large area, say India, and ran least squares against the raw temperature measurements for all the stations for the last 5 years.

        So I did. Then I sorted them from low to high trends and amateurishly graphed them with Excel. Here’s the results.

        https://drive.google.com/file/d/10aBXvDXEKOenLh1X642v-A5yi1ru7d9-/view?usp=sharing

        That graphic fascinates me. Why should it look like that? Each station is independent from the others. Why should there be a smooth curve like that, descending to a zero trend and then climbing back up ? The data is unadjusted GHCN-Monthly summaries from NOAA, straight from the database. That’s the raw data, unadjusted, unaveraged, un-anomaly’d.

        Every country or region I’ve done looks like that. Sure, I sorted the trends from low to high, but that’s no reason for this result. If all the trends were about the same, the graph would be just all blue or all red.

        Gotta look at this some more..

  21. The old steam-driven satellite readings in 1900 were a great deal more reliable than the adjusted data of the present day. In those days there was no overarching political agenda to be fulfilled.

  22. One thing to keep in mind is that plants can grow in various locations, because they are versatile and/or are adapted different climates (with or without human help).

    Corn is grown widely in the world, from Africa to Iowa. Now it is being grown in southern Alberta because:
    – A variety has been developed that does not need as many high heat days.
    – Livestock farmers are looking for an alternative to barley as its prices are way up.

    Not counting greenhouses and special cases of very small scale like the peach tree growing at a house in the Victoria BC area: in front of a white stucco wall, behind a fence that shelters it from wind. And gis are growing in that area but I doubt anyone wants to make them much of a cash crop. And a variety of palm trees is grown in SW BC as ornamental.

    Sometimes nature wipes out a plant species. For example, sequoia trees were wiped out by the last ice age except for California and did not repopulate. They are viable in the Victoria BC area where quite a few were planted a century or more ago. And there’s the fungus or such that killed off most chestnut trees in North America. (The lady married to former Branch Bank and Trust chairman John Allison is working on a variety to repopulate North America.)

  23. ja. ja.
    I told you
    the hunger years are coming.
    every 87 years there is the major problem of drought coming to the great plains (high latitudes)

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