Germany totally kills coal – will likely end up in the dark, without heat and light

From the LA times, a bold move, but unlikely they can pull it off.

Jaenschwalde power station in Germany, 2010 Photo:Wikipedia

Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on renewable energy

Germany, one of the world’s biggest consumers of coal, will shut down all 84 of its coal-fired power plants over the next 19 years to meet its international commitments in the fight against climate change, a government commission said Saturday.

The announcement marked a significant shift for Europe’s largest country — a nation that had long been a leader on cutting CO2 emissions before turning into a laggard in recent years and badly missing its reduction targets. Coal plants account for 40% of Germany’s electricity, itself a reduction from recent years when coal dominated power production.

“This is an historic accomplishment,” said Ronald Pofalla, chairman of the 28-member government commission, at a news conference in Berlin following a marathon 21-hour negotiating session that concluded at 6 a.m. Saturday. The breakthrough ended seven months of wrangling. “It was anything but a sure thing. But we did it,” Pofalla said. “There won’t be any more coal-burning plants in Germany by 2038.”

The plan includes some $45 billion in spending to mitigate the pain in coal regions. The commission’s recommendations are expected to be adopted by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government.

The decision to quit coal follows an earlier bold energy policy move by the German government, which decided to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by 2022 in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011.

The initial targets are considerable, calling for a quarter of the country’s coal-burning plants with a capacity of 12.5 gigawatts to be shut down by 2022. That means about 24 plants will be shut within the first three years. By 2030, Germany should have about eight coal-burning plants remaining, producing 17 gigawatts of electricity, the commission said.

full story here

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306 thoughts on “Germany totally kills coal – will likely end up in the dark, without heat and light

      • Just a question here: a few weeks ago, WUWT said that Germany had increased coal mining. (Don’t remember the exact date.)

        What happened to that? Is it all going to export?

        This bit of news tonight is possibly THE stupidest thing I have seen come out of Deutschland in a very, very long time.

        They’ll be sorry. … really, really sorry.

      • Everyday it becomes clearer how the great German nation fell under the spell of the Little Corporal.

      • Coal and nuclear power will be replaced by natural gas. There are already gas power plants in germany, but they don’t work economically by now. Coal and nuclear power are still to cheap.
        Why Trump has threatened to sanction European companies investing in Nord Stream 2, a pipeline wich is critisized as economically unfeasible?
        [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream#Economic_aspects ]
        I think it all will make sense, when German coal and nuclear power will be replaced by russian natural gas.

        Why Germans don’t act? They don’t want to be treated as “nazis” (lose their jobs, get their cars burned,…).

        • You really think it is a good idea for European countries to become totally dependent on natural gas from Russia? Really?

    • The blowback from the consequences of this venal, narcissistic idiocy will be akin to the advent of the Nazis.

      The Germans have delivered us two world wars and subsequently just bludged off the US-UK underpinned NATO for its postwar security despite having more than enough capacity to pay its way let alone the expertise to maintain a formidable military capacity.

      There is something just wrong with the German mindset. Arrogant and self important without judgement.

      • To be fair, Germany was an occupied nation for forty years after losing a devastating war that they started, then took in tens of millions of communists. They might need a bit of time to recover from that.

        Thought it does rather look like they may have decided to commit suicide instead. Fortunately I don’t think I own anything that needs parts from Germany, because I doubt they’ll be available in a few years.

        • The germans are very sharp people. They will figure out after they shut down about half of those plants that it’s a really bad idea. I’m sure Putin likes the idea of Germany being more dependent on Russian natural gas though. That’s about all the Germans will have left. Putin will have them by the short hairs.

          • Yeah…..But without reliable and abundant electrical power to power their economic endeavors, where do they get the money to pay Russia for the natural gas? And Petroleum?

        • They took ten years to integrate the east. Their numbers. The cost to their economy isn’t easily defined. The east had cheap labour but when that ran out mad merkel invited Africa and the middle east to join them and the rest of europe

          • East Germany did not have cheap labour, because they converted marks at one to one. Both Eat and West Germany had a demographic problem that pre-dated the fall of the Wall. I have worked with plenty of Germans (generally very nice and funny people) but hardly any have any children.

        • Yes, I accept they had a lot of rebuilding to do then reintegrate with the East but for the last decade or so they could readily have been ramping up their defence spending to the 2% mark.

          There is nothing to have stopped them having a small, compact but high quality military that could at least appear to be solid with the US. Where were crack German troops in Bosnia, Kosovo, Somalia, Iraq 1990 etc? They have been taking soft options militarily and posturing morally.

          • If Germany invested all the social welfare for “guest workers” from southern europe and Turkey – to keep them in the NATO – instead in a powerful army, would you be really happier? I guess UK and Poland wouldn’d.

      • It’s not as if the data isn’t there. The following website shows the energy mix in Germany. This week note the small contribution by both wind and solar. On the night of January 24, the contribution
        of wind is zero and solar of course is zero. Doubling the fleet will be 2 X 0 or 0 unreliable energy. If you look back on earlier weeks you can find periods of over two weeks on which wind is working at less than 10% of capacity. Imagine the increased number of wind turbines needed to over produce energy for a future two week lull. Imagine the batteries or pumped storage needed to store the energy for two weeks of German industry. Well maybe there won’t be that much industry.
        It seems incredible to me that Germany does not see the dangers in their abandonment of fossil fuel and nuclear. Perhaps the plan is to become reliant on Gazprom. What could go wrong?

        https://www.energy-charts.de/price.htm

        • First Crimea, then Ukraine, then…

          Germany already appears to be a nation that doesn’t even want to be able to defend itself…

          • Hugs How did we do that? By defeating them? But either way we rebuilt them, too. Japan also. So don’t go blaming the Allies. They attacked, not us.

          • “You” didn’t beat them, the allied did manage to create a post WWII Germany in which thinking is gutted. The good communists completed the fathermurder so that poor guys still fear of being Natzists and try be so progressive.

            I think this ‘fear’ of being an N drives Germany.

      • Germans have huge guilt about the war and that’s holding them back on creating a big army. A suicide-wish is a more likely explanation for the idiocy.

      • They are moving towards the same situation as they were in during the 1920s. Economic collapse, which leads to serious political polarization about what to do for it. We are seeing both in their early stages – the watermelons on the Left, opposed by AfD on the Right. Although neither one is quite as radical and violent as their counterparts of a century ago, they are going to move that way as the economy dies.

        Much the same in France, Italy, most other European nations.

        • They might not be as radical and violent as back then, but once a certain threshold is passed people can go full postal with surprising ease. There are many such examples in history of that. Then there is only one way forward, destroy the other side.

        • I went to Rome last November and one of the days I went to Ostia. I was absolutely stunned at the level of graffiti praising Hitler and decrying the levels of immigration. There is a bonfire being built in Europe that will inevitably erupt in the not too distant future that will be talked about for as long as we have talked about WWII.

        • Yeah, yeaah. And Mein Kampf was not in any way what Hitler meant, long before he came to power and then did what he said he would do. It’s not Germany’s fault at all.

          Just absurd fantasies.

          • It’s not Germany’s fault at all.

            So it is not the fault of the American voters at all that O’bummer got elected twice?

        • If you want to know more about who attacked civilians first then go and talk to the survivors from Poland who miraculously escaped the Nazi death squads in the late 30’s, Long before the war even began !!!

        • Wally

          You are off your rocker! Spend just little time reading 1st order material and not spin doctoring. I would suggest you start with Hitlers own words. But 6 million dead jews and at least as many eastern europeans in labor camps and death camps should give you the basic idea of Hitlers actual views.
          By the way the similarities between Hitlers use of Jews as the focal point of hatred for all the supposed ills that the German people had suffered is eerily similar to the lefts blaming of white males for all the supposed sins in the world.

          • The difference is white males in America will not surrender their weapons and meekly walk into the death camps.

        • I’m always fascinated by arguments over who bombed civilians first. The funny part (not) is you’re talking about the wrong war. I don’t know who did it first, but civilians were being bombed from the air in 1915.

      • Wait a minute though.
        Picture this. In a fairly typical freezing mid winter Germany (insert name of country) the wind is not blowing and the Sun is not shining, and Mr Putin decides the Germans can have his gas at double the price.
        After a few million Germans have frozen to death the remaining grown ups tell the idiots in charge where to go. End of the global warming farce.
        Or am I wishing on a star? By

      • About a hundred years ago, a British (?) politician said that “The German is either at your feet or at your throat”. Exchange ‘throat’ for ‘economy’, and consider just WHO is running the EU, and you may sympathise with that speaker…

    • To whom? Germans? If they are in their right minds, which is clearly not a majority of Germans.

      To me? No, I don’t care for Germany or Germans. It serves them right to suffer. I believe that the move will cause immense suffering, and will serve as a salutary example of the foolishness that warmunism has engendered.

      “Example is the school of mankind, and they will learn at no other.”
      Edmund Burke, Letter i. On a Regicide Peace. Vol. v. p. 331.
      http://www.bartleby.com/100/276.41.html

      • Agreed. It will be a laboratory of leftist ideas turned into reality, as if the world needed another example. Will they be able to carry this plan through to its 19-year completion? Or at some point will the privations foisted upon the German people lead to such strong political opposition that the current government policy must be stopped (likely accompanied by a declaration that they have “won” the climate war)? How much higher will electricity rates go? Will their economy suffer as most here anticipate? Will there be political upheaval? We will be watching with interest.

    • God help them, Putin will be laughing his head off if Germany plan to use Gas to paper over the unreliables cracks.

      The EU reliance on Russian gas will ensure they darent complain or act next time Putin decides to “liberate” more of the Ukraine or somewhere else on the EU’s borders or in the Baltics.

    • What could possibly go wrong? What renewables will be taking the place of these plants? What back up do they plan to have or have they decided that having backup is too pessimistic?

    • A plan put in place “in the fight against climate change”

      Think about that for a second. It is like saying you are going to fight the wind blowing or the sun coming up. Hey I have an idea. How about cutting off you head to fight hair loss or sinus problems. It would certainly cure blindness.

  1. I guess maybe they decided to run the economy entirely without reliable electricity (no nuclear, no coal), that should work, right?

    • No! It will not work. The policy be reversed before its fully implemented. Intermittent electric power will not be tolerated by the voters.

      • As it seems now, the green blob is on the rise. These Green Godfathers of pc will see that the will of the voters will be wilfully ignored.

      • Yes, there will be postponements after postponements. Don’t forget they have made many such decisions over the last 20 years – always to be delayed or forgotten about.

      • Maybe they saw the ‘excellent’ examples provided by South Australia and Victoria this week and thought that they would emulate them?

        • Neither of which had problems caused by renewables or a green grid, but problems entirely due to climate related extreme weather!

          • griff
            January 28, 2019 at 12:53 am

            “Neither of which had problems caused by renewables or a green grid, but problems entirely due to climate related extreme weather!”

            Hardly.

            “It’s being billed as wildly extreme, but Melbourne officially peaked at 42.8C. Bob Fernley-Jones looked back at the long Melbourne Regional Office data going back to 1855, and found around 30 corrected “50″ examples of a day of 42C or more. Days like this are one-in-3-year-event. This is summer in Melbourne. It’s not rare and any half-competent planner would plan accordingly.

            As Bob points out the highest spikes in Jan ’39 and Feb 2009 are arguably outliers “resulting from freakish hot northerlies (and the most terrible Victorian bushfires). If they are waived as outliers, then for the rest of the record from 1855 it’s all pretty dam flat?”

            http://joannenova.com.au/2019/01/melbourne-200000-houses-blacked-out-10-companies-curtailed-as-1-in-5-year-hot-day-hits/

          • So not having enough power from wind because wind doesn’t always blow is a problem because of Climate Change? What?

            Australia gets hot and always has done. This week hasn’t been near an actual record, just near BOM’s records, which only go back to 1910.

            Try some facts with your propaganda once in a while.

          • griff

            January 28, 2019 at 12:53 am

            Neither of which had problems caused by renewables or a green grid, but problems entirely due to climate related extreme weather!

            Which only stands to prove that renewbles can’t provide the needed energy in today’s climate.
            Coal, Gas, Nuclear would have had no problems supplying the necessary MWh needed to supply the uptick in demand created by the summer temperatures. Renewables (Unreliables) Not So Much.
            Griff…Would you agree then that, given the current state of the climate, reliables are far more necessary than renewables for supplying the energy required to keep society cool during hot summer months?

      • The article says
        “The initial targets are considerable, calling for a quarter of the country’s coal-burning plants with a capacity of 12.5 gigawatts to be shut down by 2022. That means about 24 plants will be shut within the first three years. ”
        and
        “An opinion poll by ZDF television Friday showed 73% of Germans are in favor of a speedy phase-out.”

        So who knows ?
        If the German people put their mind to something, they are a very powerful force,
        whether misguided or not, I can’t say.

          • ZDF, Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen, has a bad reputation for government unindependent MSM journalism.
            Steffen Seibert, government spokesman since 2010, was before that, lo and behold, a journo and news anchorman with the ZDF. Hôni soit qui mal y pense.

        • Whats’ that got to do with anything? Germany can’t function without either coal, or gas, or nuclear. They have to choose one. The alternative is death by renewables.

          • Don’t discount the possibility that they want to die. One symptom is the birth rate among ethnic Germans which is well below replacement.

    • And they’re signed up to the EU directive that means only electric vehicles can be sold in Germany after 2030 ……… be interesting to see how fast the German economy crashes and burns then when everything is ‘powered’ by renewables…

      Thank God the UK is meant to be leaving the EU in a few weeks

      • Whilst I agree with “thank God we are leaving the EU” just stop and think what the British rulers have in store with their global warming agenda.
        It is every bit a stupid as the Germans. And we have ZERO opposition to the hare brained globalists.

    • Since they are next door to France’s 72% nuclear power, perhaps they plan on France to keeping them supplied with electricity.

  2. I see history repeating itself here…”Germans sadly follow a lunatic leader into (green) hell”. This will not end well for Germans. “Leaders” showboat and virtue signal while population suffers and pays and pay and pay…

    • Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is her annointed successor in the CDU and could become Chancellor. She has somewhat waffled on energy policy but is reportedly anti coal and anti nuclear, but pro gas and renewables while insistent that they must remain a world leader in implementing Paris.

  3. Putin is counting his money while doing backflips over this news as Germany will become heavily dependent on Russian gas.

  4. Perhaps the dumbest move of all was shutting down the nuclear plants because of a very unusual set of circumstances that could never possibly occur in Germany, helped along by sloppy Japanese thinking in not providing local power back up. But then, who plans for a tsunami? The German
    govt lacks the ability to understand even the basics. Of course making plans 11 years out is the easy part. By 2030, I expect most of the civilized world to be building small modular molten salt nuclear plants by the bucketful. These will doom a reneable Germany to the same high energy costs disdvantages of her industry, causing any still around by that time to leave. GErmany’s power costs are already close to those of wind-crazy Denmark – the highest in Europe. Plenty of German companies have set sail for the U.S. due to energy costs. Probably also the reason BMW has expanded their factory in South Carolina , now the largest BMW plant in the world. And South Carolina is 60% + nuclear power.

    • Well, the Germans once thought it would be a good idea to invade Russia in the winter…with a 2500 mile supply line…that went well. Lets face it, those Germans can really be wacky people.

      • Roughly transporting the ‘natural’ gas 2500 miles uses roughly 35% of the energy content of the gas transported which significantly reduces the benefit of burning natural gas over coal.

        Transporting gas uses significantly more energy than transporting a liquid or a solid.

        P.S. The largest reserve of natural gas in Europe is found in Germany. Of course the green idiots hate fracking almost as much as the burning of coal.

        • William Astley

          I’m curious about your numbers, William. Are you saying pipeline transmission of natural gas uses the equivalent of ~35% of the intrinsic energy of the transported product? That doesn’t sound very credible to me – it sounds way high – so I’d like to know where that figure came from please. Can you provide a source please? Thanks!

        • Napoleon’s French invasion of Russia began on 24 June 1812.
          Maybe the next one should be pencilled in for a Spring kick off.

        • And do not forget what happened to the Swedish invaders prior to Napoleon. Even Tammerlane had difficulties in the forests north of Kiev. General winter seems to always step in to complicate the day.

        • Or just history as most of us know it. There is zero evidence that Stalin had any plans to attack Germany.

          • Stalin doubted than the non-aggression pact would last and did order some limited war preparations, but the sheer scale of Op.Barbarossa still caught the Soviets off-guard.

            After the siege of Malta failed, the Axis oil supply from N.Africa started to dwindle as Malta-based Allied bombers harassed the tanker convoys. Hitler needed oil and the closest known sources were in Soviet territory. I expect that was the main motivation for breaking the non-ag agreement and opening the eastern front.

          • Romania, by then a top-ranking oil producing country, was the backbone of the German oil industry. In the 1930ies, large chemical plants were built in Germany to generate oil from – coal. Leunawerke in Saxonia had by far the largest processing pants (Bergius method). Italian – Libyan oil was not even second – tier. Russian oil around the Caspian Sea and Baku had much higher prority. Erich von Manstein said to Hitler: “If we dont get the Baku oil, the war will be lost.”

        • Wally

          It actually was. But the Germans didn’t know anything about that, as Goebbels admitted.
          Musial, Bogdan: Kampfplatz Deutschland. Stalins Kriegspläne gegen den
          Westen. Berlin: Propyläen 2008, 585 Seiten, 29,90 €
          Suvorov, Viktor. Icebreaker: Who Started the Second World War? (Viking Press/Hamish Hamilton; 1990) ISBN 0-241-12622-3

          For the first book an in-deep knowledge of the German language is indispensable.

    • “By 2030, I expect most of the civilized world to be building small modular molten salt nuclear plants by the bucketful. ”

      Not if American liberals have anything to say about it. Who was it who said that giving clean cheap energy to people is like giving guns to children?

      • Paul Erhlich, in a publication put out by the anti-nuclear Abalone Alliance, claimed having cheap and unlimited power was like “giving an idiot child a machine gun”.

      • American liberals won’t be running government anytime soon. They are moving farther left and are spending all their energy on trying to win the last election. Yeah they took over the House, but without having an honest retrospective on why they lost the election and reviewing their policies, all those citizens who finally got jobs and bigger paychecks will be increasing the vote for Republicans with also an increased support from African Americans.

        The Trump phenomenon is also changing the R party, getting rid of the RINO repubs who’ve been living in the Swamp as paid up members of the DC elites. The rest of the world is waking up from the neomarxbrothers’ nightmare perpetrated by the same types. Brexit, Austria, Italy, Poland, the French gilêts jaunes riots, Brazil (I’m still hoping a little bit for our lost cousins in Australia), Canadian provinces are turfing out the left and Trudeau will be gone. India, China and a growing number of African countries are pushing out the the neocolonial agents of the elites and are going gangbusters on coal.

        Germany is opting for the American model re energy with Russian gas as the main energy source’. It’s basically all over.

    • But they are going to build Scalectric pretend cars powered by fairy dust and unicorn farts, not real grown up vehicles in Carolina.

    • There you go again (to quote President Reagan)

      By 2030, I expect most of the civilized world to be building small modular molten salt nuclear plants by the bucketful

      Why? The idea has been around for decades and nothing has come of it yet. While I would certainly love to see MSRs become a reality (assuming they’re everything they’re hyped to be) the fact that, to date, no one has succeeded in making them work to scale commercially suggest that a bit of caution in such gung-ho pronouncements is in order as so far all “modular molten salt nuclear plants” have been and continue to be is vaporware.

      • If research on MSR had been subsidized as heavily as wind and PV research, the story would look completely different. The Green Blob prevents such research successfully (for the sake of our children) and politicians follow suit obediently.

  5. So 28 fools voted to commit slow but literal suicide. Won’t be too many years before the ‘yellow vests’ come out in Germany, as they probably won’t willingly do so.

  6. How can 45 billion Euros allocated over 15 years mitigate the damage to millions of lives and to the skills of the soon to be former leading manufacturing technology nation on earth? The U.S. Spends that amount yearly in Afghanistan! Germany will under this plan lose its capability to make steel and copper (both require baseload power and steel making requires coal and coal byproducts). I guess the Germans will.import such materials from smelters and mills in less enlightened nations. Such was German exveptionalism (It sure wasn’t and isn’t in politics).

    • It’s all just more impossible leftist hot air.
      In a year they’ll be quietly scrapping the whole absurd idea.

      Germany’s economy is extremely export based, even the left knows that they will not get to steal more German taxpayers money if the economy crashes due to lack of sufficient energy.

      Much ado about nothing.

  7. The plan to eliminate coal-burning plants as well as nuclear means that Germany will be counting on renewable energy to provide 65% to 80% of the country’s power by 2040.

    I presume “renewable” means wind and solar. Stupid question: What happens should they get a cold snap in January and the wind stops blowing (as often happens on the coldest days)? Where does the electricity come from? What’s the plan?

    • Tell me what goal you have in mind for 2040. I’ll give you a plan to get there. Just don’t ask me to guarantee that it will work (no skin in the game). I’ll have retired to Micronesia by then.

    • Killer Marmot

      The only thing I can think of is that they import their electricity for those periods via Europe wide interconnectors, thereby simply displacing their CO2 emissions.

      I mean this has been the plan all along hasn’t it, to create a United States of Europe.

      I can’t help but wonder if this is simply a knee jerk reaction to their current failing CO2 emissions reduction policy. The problem is of course, that it failed for a reason and the 75% support for this will rapidly erode as electricity bills rise beyond the reach of all but the wealthiest.

      Were I a younger man I would be very tempted to start selling domestic diesel generators in Germany.

  8. Germany’s Merkel has already flushed Germany’s cultural future via immigration
    The last coal plant closure without nuclear build out will be the coup-de-grace

    The harsh reality is that by the time the final coal plant closures hits, full Islamization of Germany’s legal and political systems will be in place. That’s not racist. Its the reality of differing birth rates between two very diffrent cultures in one land.

    • And if the EU remains intact (I give that about a 5% chance), the children of those immigrants and their children will be full EU citizens able to move about anywhere in the EU to keep the islamization going. And you can bet that will happen as energy costs destroy living standards and jobs in Germany.

      • And George Soros will be laughing his ass off in whatever depth of hell his evil soul is in by then. He’ll finally have his revenge on Germany’s Christians.

      • I guess it will all work out since many if them come from areas that do not have reliable power. Nothing to adjust to.
        It just means the civilized world is shrinking. Oh, well, it was a good run.

      • Joel, the Germans are going to be switching to Russian gas, not renewables. They had relied on German ingenuity, a can-do self reliance and a societal beehive order and obedience to be the best at the new green society.

        They failed and recognize that the big failure, that of their competitive industry and economy were next. The deal with Russia on gas is huge. If it weren’t, they wouldn’t be willing to court such American displeasure over this deal.

        They had front-loaded their economy with supporting indigent EU members, opening their doors to hoards of more indigents and culture/society killing demographics on top of the green silliness. They are at a point similar to that of the devastation of their country wrought by themselves with the Second World War. Trump and Brexit were the catalyst, the kick in the A55 that re-engaged their brains.

        I had written Germany off 15yrs ago not seeing anything that could save them. Now, I believe they can turn a corner. The Russians love and respect the Germans and both countries will be beneficiaries economically and industrially. Russia will in this way, also overcome the Western propagandized view of them put up by liberal elites and largely also bought into by the right.

    • At the present rate of immigration by Muslims and high birth rate, all of western and northern Europe will be under Sharia law by 2060. Eastern Europeans are more sensible. They realize the threat of Islam.

  9. Let`s see. Shut down nuclear; shut down coal; will natural gas be next. The Germans are suicidal.

  10. The free market system, with environmental guidance from govt, should determine the natural direction energy production and pricing should go. When govt dictates what will happen, ruin is sure to follow. Will the people in Germany’s govt, that made these decisions, be held accountable – therein lies a huge problem.
    Who is John Galt?

    • As the woman said………….you can ignore reality, but you still suffer the consequences of ignoring reality.

      This is problem of Climate Science being dogma based instead of evidence based.

  11. This must get close to a perfect description of insanity. Given no coal or nuclear, limited gas and oil and no chance of solar power producing much for the great majority of the time, this only leaves windmills to power the economy. Yet, as the German grid engineers must have been telling their political masters until they were blue in the face, windmills are simply not fit-for-purpose for powering more than a small part of the electrical power grid of a developed nation. There are two reasons:
    1) windmills need almost constant back-up by power stations using alternative energy sources (if there are any!) which, in turn, makes the whole ball-game hideously expensive; and
    2) the physical properties of windmills mean that they only work well in winds between around 15mph and 50mph (not far above which they have to be shut down) and, even then, the significant sensitivity of the output between around 15mph and 30mph means that large output fluctuations inevitably occur, leaving grid engineers with major power planning headaches even at relatively low percentages of wind-driven power supply.
    Anyone thinking they can run the bulk of the electrical infrastructure of a major developed economy with
    windmills is living in cloud-cuckoo land.

    • I appreciate the cloud-cuckoo reference. And add; it’s an insult that anyone takes the name White Rose without understanding and respecting the historical context.

    • Intermittent renewables above 25 % penetration triples the cost assuming you have natural gas backup. Germany says they will buy hydro power from Norway when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine. But this will entail huge costs of electricity degradation from long distance power losses. It also involves massive upgrading of Germany’s power infrastructure. If you don’t build natural gas plants as a backup then you will have power outages. Does Norway have enough hydro power to power all of German industry?

      ” In winter 2010/2011, Norwegian reservoir levels were extremely low, and in certain specific hours, electricity prices reached record levels after a long period of low temperatures and low inflow. However, the power supply system was able to meet demand. High prices were important in encouraging lower consumption, higher production and more import of electricity.”
      https://energifaktanorge.no/en/norsk-energiforsyning/kraftproduksjon/

      Based on that quote it seems the answer is unlikely.

      With this plan Germany’s electricity costs will skyrocket. Since electricity is only 15% of total energy used in the economy, the CO2 emissions won’t go down much. So one questions why would a sane government do this? The only conclusion is that German leaders are insane.

    • Their real plan is to import electricity from outside, perhaps even building plants in other countries. Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Czechia, and others will be glad to supply electricity from coal and gas. They’ll also continue to buy nuclear powered electricity from France.

      They just might be able to make it work if they keep 8 or so coal plants as a ready reserve for a windless day or two.

      • With enough money, you can accomplish just about anything, Philo. That doesn’t mean you can still sell BMW’s at a profit.

        • You can if you build them in S. Carolina where BMW is expanding their manufacturing plant. HQ in Germany, build everything somewhere else. Economic suicide.

          • BMW also built a plant in Mexico rather than in South Carolina. The reason for this is EU has tariffs on vehicles built in US (at least at that time). Mexico has free trade agreement with the EU where the cars are sold.

    • “Those that don’t learn the lesson of South Australia are doomed to repeat it.” Apologies to Santayana.

  12. Are Germans so guilt ridden that they are determined to create their own holocaust by committing genocide against their own people?

    • Doubt it, she was born in West, grew up and got chemistry PhD in the East, just coincidence that at the same time Putin was head of USSR operations there.

      • Merkel’s predecessor Gerhard Schroeder is chairman of the board of Nord Stream AG and of Rosneft, the Russian Gas company. What do you suppose Merkel’s next gig will be?

  13. I am personally glad Germany is doing this. It will give the rest of the world a truly visceral and horrifying example of the Green Blob and World Government. I give them 2-5 years into the program until they invent some reason of slowing the closures and reopening either the nuclear or coal plants.

    We can all count on the MSM for their ability to report on the outcome of this as honestly as it reported on the Socialist utopia of Venezuela…

    • Germany can act as an object lesson, showing the reality of renewable energy dependence. I expect that like South Australia you will see the sale and installation of generators at residences and businesses will skyrocket. Carbon dioxide emissions will rise because of that assuming the fuel is available ot run the generators. If not, then Germany’s economy will collapse. It’s businesses will move to countries with reliable energy sources. All of Germany will then resemble the East Germany of the bad old days of the Cold War, and they will have done it to themselves.

  14. They might just switch over to wood pellets (renewable!)) imported from Siberia. They’re going to run out of lignite anyways in a few decades.

    • All they have to do is invade Russia to get control of the natural gas supplies. That usually works well…

  15. coal-burning plants with a capacity of 12.5 gigawatts to be shut down by 2022.
    ==========
    The date of 2022 is key. Merkel has announced she will resign as chancellor in 2021. She will get the credit for shutting down the coal plants, which she can then parley into some choice position in the EU, UN, etc.

    Merkel’s successor will get the blame if the lights go out, so Germany will be forced to buy Russian gas. If Putin says jump, Germany will ask “how high”.

  16. “There won’t be any more coal-burning plants in Germany by 2038.”

    I’ll believe it when it happens.

    More than likely the populace will get tired of freezing in the dark long before the last coal plant is shut down.

  17. I am surprised at this, considering the abject and documented failure of the Energiewendung. This is national masochism.

    • The Germans, at last estimate, individually pay at least three to four times as much for their electricity usage as I do. Watch that cost go up as they get closer and closer to the drop-dead date (no pun intended; I’m serious) for the plants that are closing.

      Why the rest of CDU/CSU hasn’t got rid of Merkel already I’ll never know.

      • Its been said, Larry, that Germans use 1/3 the electricity as the U.S., so its a wash. Actually, it is evidence of their relatively small and homogenized country.

        While the U.S. thinks and acts big, this latest elitist scheme shows just how small Germany’s thinking has become.

  18. It fascinating that a small group of faceless bureaucrats/politicians/activists can, with one vote, place an entire country on a path to penury. I’ll guess that there weren’t many (any) true scientists or engineers in the cabal.

    This is a prime example of an isolated elite dictating to the people at large. It provides the politicians with cover to implement socialism.

    • Germany has a well established history on what happens after the country enters a state of penury and attempts to procure foreign resources.

      Resumed by this joke:
      Frankfurt airport ground control gives very complex instructions to a B747 captain that just landed. The aircraft asks for precisions. The ground control guy jokes:
      -Ach, so firts time around here yankee boys ?
      To which the captain replies:
      -Negative Sir, I have been here many times on a different type of Boeing but I didn’t land.

  19. The U.K. passed their climate law in he midst of a light snowfall in London at the end of October, the first time snow had fallen that early there in decades. Germany votes to shut down coal as Australia suffers rolling blackouts after demolishing reliable baseload power stations. Oh the arrogance of politicians on a religious crusade.


    • “There is a horrifying recent example from my own country of what happens when electricity prices are hiked so much that poorer families can’t afford to turn on the heater. There was a brief cold snap last winter, and 25,000 more excess winter deaths than usual resulted, chiefly because those who are less well-off can no longer afford electrical power or heating oil because global-warming policies have made these essential commodities six times costlier than they would be if the free market had been allowed to work without governmental interference”.

      (Of discount rates and candy-canes Guest Blogger / January 11, 2019 By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley)

        • Thermal solar is an economic dead end. It can never pay back its investors and deliver reliable electricity at an affordable cost. Only by harvesting the politically granted tax incentives and other paybacks do investors put their money into these ventures. Which is why Democrats suckle at the teets of those investors for campaign cash. Feeding at the electricity consumer trough.

        • Snows there pretty much every year.

          Averages more than a foot per year.

          Why is that the correct question?
          Does the answer make the question incorrect?

          (and a quick look shows a projection of 1 or 2 inches for next tuesday … I guess the correct question may be how many birds are saved by each Tonopah snowfall event.)

  20. Human sized hamsters wheels for Germany….

    Perhaps this is how they are fighting their immigration problems…no wait those immigrants also want to return to how humans lived back in the 11th century…how progressive of Germany

  21. Just another goalpost move for Germany and it will end up like the last one. It never ceases to amaze what lack of knowledge politicians have when it comes to “renewable” energy.

  22. “There won’t be any more coal-burning plants in Germany by 2038.”

    According to this article, lignite German mines will have almost been depleted by then. Finding other fuel sources sounds like a good idea. Wood pellets, anyone?

    A large part of the German lignite opencast mines would have been depleted by 2030, and the remaining lignite reserves would have been exhausted by 2050 at the latest.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/germanys-climate-agenda-on-the-brink-of-the-abyss/

  23. This will not end well for Norway when the 4th Reich (EU/Germany) decide they need all the energy they can lay their hands on. It’s time to get a hacksaw and cut the power lines out of the country and dig trenches along the borders to Sweden and Finland.

  24. “This is an historic accomplishment,” said Ronald Pofalla,

    — historic, yes, accomplishment, no

    chairman of the 28-member government commission, at a news conference in Berlin following a marathon 21-hour negotiating session that concluded at 6 a.m. Saturday. The breakthrough ended seven months of wrangling. “It was anything but a sure thing. But we did it,” Pofalla said. “There won’t be any more coal-burning plants in Germany by 2038.”

    — 21 hours, seven months. So this is the compromise. Some must have wanted more cuts sooner. Some must have had some reservations. Concluded at 6 a.m. — maybe they were locked in a room without food or water or sleep until they confessed…

    — There won’t be any more Germany by 2038.

  25. Sheer madness. Germany has lost its mind. I can predict what will happen, but our knucklehead green politicians in the US are going to be pointing to this for some time – until the bottom falls out of the German economy.

  26. ” … will shut down all 84 of its coal-fired power plants over the next 19 years … ”

    19 years is a long time. Plenty of time to change their minds. 19 years ago Bill Clinton (I don’t remember him either) was the US president.

    • When I look back, 19 years is a very short time. But I agree that it is a long time to come up with more stupid ideas.

  27. “There won’t be any more coal-burning plants in Germany by 2038.”

    Oh, yes there will be. Some or all may be shut down presently, but unless modern society crumbles in Germany, a way will be found to magically recommission most of them. Mark my words well.

    • Don’t kid yourself, the big push is for a combined European Army, and we all know who will end up controlling that.

  28. So our children will never know snow and many will never know where a country named Germany used to be and is now a huge game park.

  29. This will turn out just like Merkel’s, “Wir schaffen das,” regarding the “migrants” from “Syria.”

  30. “The commission’s recommendations are expected to be adopted by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government”

    Only if Merkel desperately wants to end her public career on a disastrous down note.

  31. Every month I check on what’s happening with ammonia fuel. This month I found an article about alternative fuels for transportation. link I note with some bemusement that the compressed air powered car refuses to die. 🙂

    • What’s that got to do with renewable energy in Germany, you ask? Ammonia is touted as one way to store energy from renewable sources. As far as I can tell, its main advantage is that it can be stored very cheaply in large tanks. ie. for mass long term storage, it’s probably cheaper than batteries.

    • commieBob, that was hilarious.
      Everybody, the article was dead serious and covered all the bases on all the options for powering a car.
      Things they covered as realistic options:
      1) Water powered, water as fuel.
      2) Liquid nitrogen(!)
      3) Pure solar, “the problems have been addressed”

      The kind of magical thinking on display in the article goes a long way in explaining why the electric grids in Germany and Australia are collapsing.

      • In my early career, I would often sit at the feet of the masters. They were uniformly easy to understand. They spent a lot of time discussing things in terms of first principles.

        Junior engineers and scientists, on the other hand, most often explained things in a very confusing manner. They usually didn’t provide viable solutions.

        What I learned was to look for violations of first principles. The approach was very productive.

        Whoever wrote the article evidently doesn’t have a grasp of first principles.

    • In Germany, they just exchange the old Ferraris eletricity meters against brand new, remotely controllable ones, nationwide. They will take you off-grid when it deems necessary. Your power consumption is under full control, for a start. And when wind and PV cannot deliver, you’ll be remorselelessly taken down.

  32. Through Google for instance this is being trumpeted as a great advance for renewables in the ‘life and de@th’ battle against the elements, aka climate change™.
    Hard coal and lignite made up about 22% of the primary energy consumption in Germany in 2017; fossil fuels oil natural gas coal together made up 80%, renewables were 13% while the rest was nuclear and ‘other’ (Statista).
    Coal, most of which is imported, will be replaced quietly by gas no doubt with little effect except on electricity price with a corresponding reduction in consumption and increased hardship for many.

  33. Average yearly sunshine hours for German cities (North, Central and South).
    Compiled from 1961-1990 data according to the website:
    https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Germany/annual-hours-of-sunshine.php.

    Some sunshine average hours/day for major German cities: Berlin –> 4.45 hours, Hamburg –> 4.26 hours, Frankfurt –> 4.35 hours, Munich –> 4.68 hours, Stuttgart –> 4.63.

    Sunshine hours for U.S. cities in contrast:
    https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/US/average-annual-sunshine-by-city.php.

    Chicago –> 6.87 hours/day, Miami –> 8.64, NYC –> 6.95, Dallas –> 7.80, Kansas City –> 7.70, Phoenix –> 10.6, Sacramento –> 9.88 hours/day, etc….

    If that German commission thinks it can replace nuclear and coal plants with solar panels, me thinks that they are in for a huge disappointment. I have my doubts that wind energy is any better in Deutschland. If their neighboring countries follow suit, there could be some real problems on the horizon.

    Germany committed suicide militarily in the early 1940s. Now they are planning on doing it economically. The first time it happened was from believing in one man’s ideology that they shouldn’t have. And now……

  34. Country is run by women. Feelings over facts is to be expected. The mistake of my life was to move to Germany. Then, Merkel opened the borders and now this. The bill for electricity is already high.

  35. Will be interesting to see it implemented. Does the anti coal / anti nuke virtue signalling include not using interconnectors to those awful sources of power in other countries? or is it a faux righteousness like California , strutting and preening while quietly leaning other States?

    • Of course not. Poland’s coal generators are counting on quite the windfall from this. Germany will only succeed in moving the coal generation east. This is doubly true with Macron’s plans to kill France’s nuclear plants in a similar time frame.

  36. Excellent! Now we wait and see how it works out. If it works out, Great! Then we adopt the technologies that made it happen. If it doesn’t, Oh well, no skin off of our noses!

  37. It seems Germans are still able to focus totally on unsound ideas to their own detriment.

  38. To borrow from John McEnroe.
    “You can not be serious”!!
    Where do the German industrialists think they will get the energy from to power their industries?
    Perhaps they have decided to give up on industry and become Trappist monks, relying on the generosity of others to keep them going brewing beer and selling eggs for income.
    The greens will be thrilled.

  39. Germany may well sink into third world utility service, you can rest assured Putin’s Russia will dig that coal out and do with it as they please, most likely paying German miners subsistence wages to dig it and German railroaders subsistence wages to move it. All while putting a pittance into Germany through taxes and tariffs. The “German Solution” has been trudging forward for decades, you don’t honestly think a True Son of Mother Russia such as Vladimir Putin will let this debt go uncollected, can you?

  40. It is really not the problem for Germany that it seems to be. They will simply export pieces of paper (dollars, euros), which can be printed Ad infinitum, in exchange for electricity imported from neighbouring countries. People for some reason seem to place value on these pieces of paper, willingly accepting them in exchange for tangible goods and services. When that doesn’t work anymore, and that time will come, one can always simply “annex” those neighboring regions that had the fore site to build nuclear power stations.

  41. Actually, this is excellent news for the US! With such an aggressive plan to eliminate both nuclear and coal, there is an excellent chance that by 2030 (just 11 years from now) Germany will have demonstrated their folly for all the world to see.

    Since things in the US are moving much slower in that same direction, there’s now a great chance that seeing Germany’s great “experiment” fail in practice, the US can reverse its own “green” trend so that we’ve only wasted several $trillions on this path, inside of hundreds of $trillions.

    And, yes, by 2030 the US should still have enough natural gas and CCGT equipment to send to Germany so that we can once again rebuild their (energy) infrastructure.

  42. Look at a wind resource potential map for Germany. It has been well known for many years that Germany’s wind potential is low, very spotty. Given their northerly latitude, solar hasn’t much of a chance either. So I guess they are leaving themselves no options but to rejoin the reemergent USSR, and tossing in western Germany to boot.

  43. “This is an historic accomplishment…”

    You haven’t accomplished one damn thing yet, except compose an inane virtue-signaling bloviation indicating vast ambition with half-vast preparation, for public consumption. Before you shut down even the first coal-fired power plant you need to find a replacement, and your “Energiewende” has proven that unreliables are not a replacement.

    “Do. Or do not. There is no try.” – Yoda.

  44. Hitler and Merkel; two leaders with totally different objectives but a similar outcome – the destruction of their own nation and most of Europe. Artillery for Adolph, energiewende and unfettered Muslim immigration for Angela. At least after Hitler both Germany and Europe recovered. Merkel has done a real snow job though – Eurabia will be thanking her for many a long millennia. She’ll take the cake for most influential leader in history. No one would’ve predicted that when she came to power.

  45. Just like their relatives in the UK, Anglo Saxon Celtic, are very slow to anger, unlike the French, but when they do get pushed too far they fight.
    Look at the movie footage of the 1920 tes and even the early 1930 before Hitler came along, plenty of street fighting. Mercle and her Green successor will not last. Germany as with many other parts of the EU is slowly going to the right politically.

    I doubt if it will even get to brown outs, but it will put a big strain on the massive EU Grid system, so expect other countries in Europe to either cut Germany off the Grid, or tell her to stop this
    nonsense

    The big industries will also get involved , and the result will be a right wing political party.

    Its very unlikely that this could produce another Hitler, but certainly a far better Leader will emerge, perhaps a German TRUMP.

    MJE

  46. Just look at the extremes to which people have been driven because of the Climategate charlatan’s lies about CAGW being real. Talk about a small group of people screwing things up royally! They aren’t just screwing Germany up, they are screwing the whole world up.

    To German citizens: Those Climategate Charlatans that have deceived your leaders and driven them mad with delusions of CO2 catastrophe, have names. You ought to sue them for damages.

  47. Germany, one of the world’s biggest consumers of coal, will shut down all 84 of its coal-fired power plants over the next 19 years

    Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,

    Discuss

  48. The problem with the Germans is that they are smart, hard working and stubborn. Avoid going to war against them if at all possible.
    This leads to , when things are tanking, an unwillingness to abandon sunk costs and change course.
    This is going to get interesting. That 73% are in favor of the coal phaseout just means that the German eduction system has become as terrible as those in Australia and the US. There is very little technical knowledge among the populations.

  49. Good luck with that-
    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/power-cuts-‘australians-should-be-outraged-by-this’/ar-BBSONcY
    but perhaps Germans really want to relive the ‘good old days’ according to no prizes for guessing-
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/warmists-really-want-you-to-suffer/news-story/cac7aaeb2807be26eb4185b7ab023d0f

    Personally guys I’d refresh the memory about Napoleon and Stalingrad and all that snow and cold before you go reminiscing about blackouts and war time. Don’t listen to these Greenshirt masochists.

  50. They are at 40% renewable already… with no problems and no grid shut downs.

    An awfully large amount of German electricity from conventional power plants is currently exported (it has been keeping France lit up over the past few years while their reactors have seen major shut downs).

    They are only just starting on their major north/south HVDC grid improvements, needed to ship solar north and wind power south…

    their offshore wind programme and interconnectors to e.g Norway are continuing apace.

    Really, there is no problem here… and their plans will I’m sure include reskilling and re-employment of displaced power workers.

      • 2013 date on that article. The situation has changed since – and the predictions did NOT come true

        The aluminium plant outage was an near unique event… if I remember rightly there was a problem when that occurred from the post Fukushima nuclear shutdown

        The export to e.g Polish grid issue is resolved.

    • Too bad the original goal to phase out all coal plants by 2030 didn’t pass. The faster phase out would crash the grid earlier so other nations, like Scotland and Australia, might rethink their own suicide pacts before their own grid collapses.

    • Mid january we have been near a collaps as the frequecy was down to 49.8 Hz
      source

      On Thursday the 01/10/2019 at 20:02:05 clock UTC the mains frequency briefly reached the value of 49,800 Hz. This is remarkable, since at this value the control range of the primary control power is 100% exhausted and first automatic shutdown measures are active to avoid a further frequency reduction The first image shows the frequency response in the timeframe of one hour, the second image shows the range of 10 minutes around the incident. At 19:55 UTC, the drop in frequency caused by the electricity trade begins at the hour change. At 20:01, stagnation sets in for about a minute. Then the frequency drops to about 49.800 Hz at about 2.5 mHz / second. At 49.8 Hz, the slope reverses abruptly and the frequency increases again. When the 49.8 Hz was reached, the first measures for frequency keeping were triggered, whereby previously defined loads were dropped. This can e.g. Pump storage in loading operation or industrial companies with disconnectable loads. For example, the French grid operator RTE that more than 1.5 GW industrial loads were automatically dropped for 20 to 45 minutes, which was the first time since construction of this instrument (see press release).
      The third picture shows the current frequency drop along with the other discharge limits. If the frequency of an additional 600 MHz would be dropped, the remaining storage pumps had been thrown at 49 Hz, the first 12.5% ​​of consumers had been thrown off, which would mean a blackout for these groups. Only after further load drops of 50% of consumers, the power would be switched off below 47.5 Hz, which would be a complete blackout.
      From a system perspective, the incident was not critical because only the first of several levels was triggered. This solved the problem automatically.
      The search for the reason for this incident is still ongoing. There was a power plant in Spain. which had a failure in the period (558 MW, see blog of Herbert Saurugg). Failures of this magnitude are normally easily absorbed by the primary control power (3000 MW). According to the current state of affairs (see press release ENTO-E dated 16.01.2019), TenneT Germany on the border to Austria had incorrect measurements but these did not cause the frequency drop.

      The Gridradar website operates a Wide Area Monitoring System (WAM). It was found that the lowest frequency (49.799 Hz at the time) occurred in France / Spain. Further results are provided by the analysis of the phase angle. The comparison of the phase angle at different locations gives an idea of ​​the current load flow. Analogous to a cardan shaft, the phase angle in regions which feed power into the network precedes the power-related regions.
      The phase angle shows that in the region of France / Spain, the performance was increased significantly about 15 minutes before the event, and falls significantly below the original value about 5 minutes before the event. This can be caused by the failure of a power plant that has been started up at the hour, or by the hourly trading. The evaluations can be found at https://gridradar.net/news.html.

      On the one hand, the incident has shown that the tools for automatic load shedding work.
      On the other hand, the question arises as to why the primary control could not stop this slow frequency drop. Here are two potential options:

      The error in the power balance of the grid was greater than the then activated primary control power (over 2.6 GW).
      The service to provide primary control power was not met by many power plants during this period.

      source

    • Griff, I have no idea where you live, but certainely not in reality 😀
      One of our problems is the money we have to pay for our electricity bills, the second the resulting prices of products calculating these bills in their product prices ans than the fear of the unssen “chance” of blackout.

      • I don’t know where you live either. The quote above from you doesn’t make it clear. but I don’t see that it represents an renewable or green grid issue. and I note that increasing use of grid storage specifically for frequency response will mitigate this sort of problem.

  51. Hugs January 28, 2019 at 12:21 am

    The west rebuilt germany in their own image, only better. The Marshall Plan. We didn’t take away anything

    • Millions of Germans would have starved in the years after WW II without the efforts of the Allies, and in particular the US. The Germans are smart and industrious but without the massive help from the Marshall plan they would not be nearly where they are today. Anyone that was around during the time of the wall and saw the difference between East and West would know that.

      But the Marshall plan wasn’t all about helping Germany for the sake of the Germans. It’s prime purpose, the real justification for the massive expenditure of US wealth in helping to rebuild, was preventing a fertile ground for Communism to grow in and thus prevent the expansion of Stalin’s power to the west. West Germany was to be the stopper and it was, but not nearly to the extent envisioned by Marshall and the other architects of the plan. Thus I and millions of other Americans, spent parts of our lives in West Germany s part of the massive US military presence there long after the formal occupation ended right up into the 1990s. And over all those years millions more how were not stationed there spent a month or so there during the annual Reforger exercises when whole Divisions deployed for war games to Germany.

      During my 8 1/2 years on teams in 10th SFG(A) I was stationed in Germany for three and on TDY in Germany for over a year more. Loved it. But it seems the Germany now is not the Germany I knew.

      • Anyone that was around during the time of the wall and saw the difference between East and West would know that.
        Guess where Merkel comes from ?
        Source

        A new biography covering Chancellor Angela Merkel’s life in East Germany has caused a stir by suggesting she was closer to the communist apparatus and its ideology than previously thought.

        Published this week and written by journalists Günther Lachmann and Ralf Georg Reuth, the book quotes Gunter Walther, a former colleague of hers at the Academy of Sciences in East Berlin, as saying she had been secretary for “Agitation and Propaganda” in the Freie Deutsche Jugend (FDJ) youth organization at the institute. Merkel, a trained physicist, worked at the academy from 1978 until 1989.
        [..]
        “With Agitation and Propaganda you’re responsible for brainwashing in the sense of Marxism,” he said. “That was her task and that wasn’t cultural work. Agitation and Propaganda, that was the group that was meant to fill people’s brains with everything you were supposed to believe in the GDR, with all the ideological tricks. And what annoys me about this woman is simply the fact that she doesn’t admit to a closeness to the system in the GDR. From a scientific standpoint she wasn’t indispensable at the Academy of Sciences. But she was useful as a pastor’s daughter in terms of Marxism-Leninism. And she’s denying that. But it’s the truth.”

        • Some say she is IM “Erika”, an alleged Stasi-informer and collaborationist. Putin knows it all.

  52. Interesting. I have never seen a country commit suicide before.

    It has not happenned since the Western Roman Empire paid the Visigoth leader Alaric a fortune in gold to NOT attack Rome. So he took the gold and attacked Rome, and that was the end of the Western Roman Empire.

    Many people think this merely represented a change in administration, but it did not. The social system collapsed, with everything from agriculture to water to transport no longer functioning, and so 60% of the population died out in less than a generation. It was the greatest calamity Europe had ever seen – much worse than the Black Death.

    Could this happen to Germany? I think it could – a UK government study in the 80s (lots of strikes then) concluded the nation was never more than 10 days away from revolution. That is how long it takes for the population to realise there is no more food in the shops, and they take to the streets.

    Just think of the effects of a large midwinter anticyclone over Germany. No electricity production for two weeks, and no storage facilities for electricity. Nothing would work. No water, transport, food, heating – nothing would work. But there would be plenty of angry people on the streets…..

    R

    • ralfellis

      “a UK government study in the 80s (lots of strikes then) concluded the nation was never more than 10 days away from revolution. ”

      Don’t believe that one for a minute. Stationed in Germany Dec. 1986 to Dec. 1989. TDY there several times before that starting in 1982. Spent time all over West Germany, including West Berlin. Trained with their Army and tactical units of their police. Spent time in every major city of the country.

          • I read that as a hypothetical — *if* the Germans were cut off from the outside, the resources on hand would empty out quickly and reach revolution-state in ten days. West Germany never was isolated, so the fact that they couldn’t feed themselves didn’t really matter outside the few years immediately after WWII.

            Whether the hypothetical is true is a separate question. I can well believe resources in Germany could exhaust quickly, given dependencies on outside food — but that’s true in many, many countries, and as the example of Venezuela shows moving from prosperity to privation neither makes revolution fast or easy in the face of armed forces, especially with a disarmed populace.

          • Kind of tough to isolate Germany that way with borders with seven other free countries, if you count Luxomburg. And as for revolt due to starvation in a police state? During WW II the bulk of the civil population of Japan were below mere subsistence level from the middle of 1942 on and it only got worse as the war progressed. it wasn’t much better for their Army in China either. Most of the offensives in China from 1942 onward were aimed in large part at procuring more rice. Of course Japan is kind of a unique case due to it’s culture.

          • >>but I KNOW that the West German nation never
            >>came close to starving in the 80s.

            I was talking about Britain, which did come close to starvation, with the 3-day week.

            And this analysis of the UK applies to most if not all nations – a starving nation will always end up in revolt. And if Germany loses electricity for two weeks, it will be on the edge of starvation and revolt.

            R

        • In fact during the 4+ years I spent in Germany in the 80s I can’t remember coming across a single person begging in the street. I don’t remember a single person looking malnourished. Not even the Turk squatters that I saw which made up the largest portion of the illegal immigrants there at the time begged or looked malnourished. Nope the biggest hassle on the streets of the major Germany cities that I remember were the gals working the “Erocenters” trying to drag my ass in there to buy overpriced drinks and….. well, you know.

  53. I don’t see this as being a specifically German problem. Scotland is in the same position, if not worse. Our saving grace is that we are connected to the rest of the UK, so when the turbines stop the lights don’t go out. I dread to think what will happen to our electricity supplies if there’s a decision to go independent.

    This insanity is even affecting France, where the nuclear capacity means there is no need for wind turbines.

    No, it’s a more general problem in that politicians have been convinced by crafty wind turbine seller adverts. Adverts that conflate the market penetration of renewables with success of wind turbines when the real success has been with hydro and biomass, that quote electricity figures as if they were total energy figures, that cherry-pick performance over short favourable intervals.

    Politicians need to be shown the real facts:
    -That wind turbines actually provide only a fraction of a percent of world energy, and that after over 20 years of development.
    -That outages are too long to be covered by any feasible battery or pumped storage capacity.
    -That performance claims quoting electricity generation only are irrelevant if the intention is to make transport and heating electric. In that case, total energy is what matters.
    -That a comparison of expenditure and energy replaced over the last decade suggests that it will cost the world $200 trillion USD to go 100% renewable by the wind/solar route, and that’s not including the cost of energy storage systems, smart grids or the like.

    Perhaps if we had a letter writing campaign, we might get this message across?

    • You must be one of the few Scots I’ve encountered who have their eyes open.
      I rarely meet anyone who thinks that we’re heading towards serious problems.
      People just don’t seem to understand or care, and swallow the green propaganda quite happily.
      The trouble with Scotland is that the SNP government are in hock to the Greens for their political support.
      They want also to shut our two remaining nukes at Hunterston (already in trouble with graphite problems) and Torness, and there’s a moratorium on fracking.
      If they succeed in doing that we’ll be left with only the gas plant at Peterhead.
      You’re right about being connected to England as our saving grace, without that we’d be stuffed.
      The figures for the interconnection make interesting reading.
      I’m seriously considering moving out of Edinburgh for my retirement, so I can have a house
      with an LPG tank for my heating which can also be used to fuel a generator.
      About 50 years ago, I can remember my mother’s friend in Shetland finally getting rid of the diesel generator in her shed, as the mains power had become reliable enough.
      Seems like we might be going backwards.
      Like you, I worry that political independence for Scotland will be an energy policy disaster.
      Letter writing campaign? Sign me up.

    • you aren’t paying attention to tha actual situation on the ground in Scotland. which is at 68% of electricity fdemand met…

      https://www.scottishrenewables.com/forums/renewables-in-numbers/

      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/renewable-energy-electricity-wind-wave-scotland-climate-change-oil-gas-a8283166.html

      And yes, Scotland will remain connected to other countries… including Norway through a new HVDC connection.

      There is much tidal turbine, wave and pumped storage capacity in Scotland still to be tapped…

  54. In Oz for many years we referred to the VW beetle as Hitler’s revenge.

    I guess it is now reasonable to refer to Angela Merkel as Stalin’s revenge.

  55. There will be several elections between now and 2038. Germany will move down the path, but they’ll never get all the way there.

    • The problems to the grid will get increasingly apparent the further down the path they move so they’d have to be pretty stupid or pretty quick at moving down the path (or both) to get all the way there. If they ever do get close to all the way there they’ll have ignored the Kirk Lazarus rule:

  56. They sure are counting on finding a lot of unicorn farts. Their invading army of Islamic jihadists is about to slaughter them back to the stone age. Too slow apparently. They want to go back to pre-industrial energy levels now.

  57. Good on you, Germany! Your ability to find solutions to technical difficulties will surely find a way and hopefully many other countries will join you in the search for clean, safe energy – Vorsprung Durch Technik.

    But, judging by the negative and bitter responses on here, you have a lot to do to win over those who only want to believe in ABC (Anything But Carbon). Maybe you never will and who cares. Especially with regards to websites such as this one. I often come here to see what excuses and new justifications come up to prevent any meaningful response to global warming, and usually I am not disappointed! Mystified at times, of course – who wouldn’t be, seeing the goal-posts being moved every few months: It’s not warming…it’s warming a little…ok, it’s warming but it’s good for us…we don’t know everything so we can’t know anything…anyway, it’s not us, so there!

    However, there has to come a point where every rational person has to say ‘Enough’! It used to be quite funny on here and sometimes a little enlightening. But now, to see so much bile and anger being poured out against the traditional bogeymen of “LEFTISTS”, “COMMUNISTS”, “Islamization”, “World Government”; against the imagined “4th Reich (EU/Germany)”; that there is (apparently) something “just wrong with the German mindset. Arrogant and self important without judgement” or, again apparently true to those who want to believe it, that the “Germans obey orders”. Talk about Godwin’s Law. On steroids!

    The penultimate straw: Misogyny – “Country is run by women. Feelings over facts is to be expected”

    The last straw: antisemitism – “And George Soros will be laughing his ass off in whatever depth of hell his evil soul is in by then. He’ll finally have his revenge on Germany’s Christians”. That poster needs to be remembered: Joel O’Bryan

    All of this unchallenged and on only one post within this website. Who knows what other dirty, nasty comments can be found deep within it. You should all be ashamed of yourselves. Goodbye and good riddance.

    • Everyone who comes here has the right to post his opinion and what he thinks, be it right or wrong, utter nonsense or the deepest thoughts ever thought. This, too, is called freedom. Sorry to see that you don’t like it.

    • JMurphy: “I often come here to see what excuses and new justifications come up to prevent any meaningful response to global warming, and usually I am not disappointed! Mystified at times, of course – who wouldn’t be, seeing the goal-posts being moved every few months.”

      In 2010 , nine years ago, Democrats were in control of both Congress and the White House. They could have enacted a stiff tax on carbon and signed that tax into law. But they didn’t.

      Barack Obama was President between 2009 and 2016. He could have declared a carbon pollution emergency, using that declaration as justification for pursuing aggressive enforcement of the Clean Air Act against all sources of America’s carbon emissions, not just against coal. But he didn’t.

      President Obama’s announced goal was for America’s carbon emissions to be reduced 80% by 2050.

      However, his published plans got us possibly one-third of the way towards that objective. At no point in his presidency did Barack Obama ever mention the necessity of imposing a program of direct carbon fuel rationing if his GHG reduction schedule wasn’t being met.

      More likely than not, Democrats will be in control of both the Congress and the White House in 2021. At which point a program of massive government spending on renewable energy projects will begin.

      That said, let us ask these questions of all of America’s AGW activists:

      Will the new Democrat president commit to President Obama’s original goal of an 80% reduction in America’s GHG emissions by 2050?

      Will a Democrat controlled Congress enact a stiff tax on carbon?

      Will the new Democrat president declare a carbon pollution emergency and begin enforcing the Clean Air Act to it maximum possible effectiveness?

      Will that new Democrat president also be honest in stating that if other GHG control measures can’t get us to an 80% reduction by 2050, a government-mandated program of carbon fuel rationing must be imposed at some point in the future?

    • This is a joke right? Cause it really made me laugh! Goodbye! Farewell! Enjoy the cold, cold winters!

    • This is not a technical problem, and that is not what the debate is about. You can run a power grid on hamsters driving dynamos if you want, you just need very many hamsters, cages, dynamos and a lot of hamster food.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkNTAiWX8g0

      Likewhise you can, if you must, technically run a power grid on wind and solar equalized by huge (and I mean HUGE) rechargeable batteries or pumped reservoirs. But economically it isn’t feasible. This project is so ridiculously expensive because it wastes such HUGE amounts of resources (ironically in the misguided endeavour to SAVE resources) that it will break any nation’s back that even attempts it – economically and politically.

  58. I hope the Kremlin is updating its hypothetical attack plan with the one or two missiles to turn NATO dark and leave it to Americans to salvage the situation in a just-in-time defense plan.

  59. As a last ditch effort to stave off defeat Angela unleashed her vengeance weapons.
    The V1 wind turbine and the V2 solar panel.

  60. The German energy plan in ~2000 planned to shut all German nuclear power plants down by 2020, replacing them (mostly) with wind power. This was unattainable, partly because the electricity grid needed to support wind power proved to be too expensive and permits to build the grid were often blocked. So what did Germany actually do? They built over 20 new lignite burning power plants in the last 18 years. Lignite is among the dirtiest of all coal types. Their 2000 energy plan was a complete failure. Now, after building all these coal plants and actually increasing CO2 production, Germany decides they’re going to shut them down. Note the shutdowns won’t be in the next year or two, they’re planned over the next 19 years. Germany is just kicking the can down the road.

    • A valid argument. The Green Blob, forerunners of animal rights and preservation of nature to the utmost, don’t let out a single word on this, what you call, avian holocaust costing so many lives of our feathered friends. Hypocrisy and a disrespect for life seem to have become another ugly trait of their characters.

    • Except in Germany they don’t: because the wind farms which killed large numbers of birds were 1980s designs installed on entirely unsuitable sites – Altamont pass being the chief culprit.

      German – EU – windfarm planning is of non-lattice tower designs, where extensive surveys of bird life need to be completed before approval. They aren’t right in the path of migrating birds. In the UK and Germany, birds do NOT suffer from windfarms.

      • @griff

        . In the UK and Germany, birds do NOT suffer from windfarms.

        As usual, you are wrong, once more.
        google.de will help you
        Windmill will more and more be planted in forrests, even there where protected birds live not far away.
        Proven is, that protected birds were shot to fullfill the demand of the not-existance of protected birds in requested regions.

  61. Energy itself it not renewable. It’s just called ‘renewable’ if more of it comes in. So they are relying on more of it coming in. Hmmmmmm.

  62. When do they acknowledge their high cost, early adopter solar panels that are in decline to minimal output?

    They helped build the industry with volume but where do they stand with that now? The same goes for inverters that fail before the panels go out.

  63. I look at this as the German version of a “no deal brexit”. It’ll predictably be a total catastrophe, but the government is determined to pull it through against all reason, because a small but loud ideological minority is shouting for it from the bottom of their lungs. We are not smarter than the Brits, we are just differently imbecile.

  64. What was it that the American Commander at Bastogne said to the Germans when asked to surrender?

    NUTS!

    I think that is appropriate again.

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