From the “garbage in, doomsday out” department.
Apocalypse by 2040? Shock as MIT computer model predicts END DATE for civilisation
An apocalyptic computer model, processed by one of the world’s largest computers in 1973, has predicted the end of civilization by 2040.
The prediction came from a programme nicknamed World One, which was developed by a team of MIT researchers and processed by Australia’s largest computer.
It was originally devised by computer pioneer Jay Forrester, after he was tasked by the Club of Rome to develop a model of global sustainability.
However, the shocking result of the computer calculations showed that the level of pollution and population would cause a global collapse by 2040.
This shows that the world cannot sustain the current level of population and industrial growth for more than two decades.
Australian broadcaster ABC has republished its original report from the 1970s, since there is just two years until a major change is expected according to the computer model.
The model based its predictions on trends such as pollution levels, population growth, availability of natural resources and quality of life on earth.
The eerie calculation has been remarkably accurate in certain predictions, such as a stagnated quality of life and diminishing pool of natural resources.
A fascinating forecast shows that the quality of life is expected to drop dramatically right after 2020.
At this time the broadcasters addreses the audience: “At around 2020, the condition of the planet becomes highly critical.
“If we do nothing about it, the quality of life goes down to zero. Pollution becomes so seriously it will start to kill people, which in turn will cause the population to diminish, lower than it was in the 1900.
“At this stage, around 2040 to 2050, civilised life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist.”
Source: Express UK
Remember when only crazy people stood on the corner with signs that said “The end is near”?
I used to see a guy like that almost every day on my lunch hours. He had a carefully outlined list of all the invading space aliens, prophecies, denizens of the Netherworld, not including Chthulhu, and how much money he’d need to survive. People would give him $1 to $5 to make him go away.
So who was the dumber of the two in that?
Didn’t include Chthulhu? Guy was clueless.
My first impression of the article was… This is a HOOT!
The good news is that now we don’t have to worry about ‘global warming’ any more. I’m gonna stop paying taxes and splurge on my credit cards.
Anyone got a boat and motorcycle for sale? Where’s the best whorehouse in Texas?
See-
william Johnston : August 13, 2018 4:09 pm
So should I sell my boat and motorcycle???????/
Bugger! the time frame is probably a smidgeon (or two) beyond my reasonable expectations of being a first-hand witness. I hope the rest of you can celebrate another demonstrated massive fail on my behalf!
Well, who can blame them for thinking the end is nigh in 1973? Take a look at the Top 100 of 1973: http://billboardtop100of.com/1973-2/ 😉
Better than today’s hit pop music.
https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100
So we are indeed in a downward cultural spiral.
A whole lot better than the soul-rottting fungus known as ‘rap/hip hop’!
Everywhere I tune I CRap is being played
From the billboard top 100 I’ll take : #51 — Dr. Hook and The Medicine Show —The Cover Of Rolling Stone
This was the original rap expose’ in 1973
Gonna send 5 copies to my mother.
PaulH, you be diss’n my year!
~¿~
My name is Michael, I’ve got a nickel, I’ve got a nickel shiny and new
I’m gonna buy me all kinds of candy, that’s what I’m gonna do
Malthusian Theory:
“..In 1798 Malthus published anonymously the first edition of An Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society, with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and Other Writers.The work received wide notice. Briefly, crudely, yet strikingly, Malthus argued that infinite human hopes for social happiness must be vain, for population will always tend to outrun the growth of production. The increase of population will take place, if unchecked, in a geometric progression, while the means of subsistence will increase in only an arithmetic progression. Population will always expand to the limit of subsistence and will be held there by famine, war, and ill health. “Vice” (which included, for Malthus, contraception), “misery,” and “self-restraint” alone could check this excessive growth….”.
Source: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Malthus.
I don’t know for certain how popular Malthusian thinking still is today after 220 years, but the fear of food production and resource shortages due to population growth seems to have been eclipsed (for the time being anyway) by the climate alarmist narrative. And today, 50 years after the prediction failures of “The Population Bomb,” this mindset has been shown to be the product of those who have little or no faith in the ability of humanity to innovate and resolve problems (perhaps even before they start).
I for one still have faith our ability to continually improve the human condition if stupidity doesn’t get in the way (and that is a big IF). For those who don’t, I guess there are websites on the Internet of companies that can actually make a sandwich board for you saying “The End Is Nigh” (or some such thing) if one is really inclined to demonstrate how much of a fool he can be in public. Bill McKibben and company are planning another climate march in San Francisco (where else) on Sept. 8th. Judging from his tweets, he must be really looking forward to it.
Whenever I hear someone say or imply that they are “saving the planet,” I simply remind myself that we humans will probably go extinct millions or billions of years before the Earth begins dying out (depending on how many more years of life our Sun has). It all depends on how it happens and when our time comes. And a 100,000 years after we are gone, Ma Nature probably won’t even remember that we were ever here. For all I know, there could be a massive meteor on its way here right now with our number on it.
All of this leaves me wondering how much the human intellect really has evolved since Malthus’ day. Perhaps nowhere near as much as we would like to believe.
As long as there’s a way to make money vending impending extinction, there will be those who are gifted with the knack for retailing it en masse.
At the time, Malthus’ understanding of population dynamics was probably up to date. But just as in most other subjects, the state of human knowledge has advanced since then and we now know that their ideas were incomplete. This doesn’t diminish the genius of the top thinkers of the time (whether you include Malthus in that group or not); Newton was not a dolt because he didn’t know about relativity. But, this does mean that their theories are incomplete/invalid and should not be relied on. At least not without taking into account what we have learned since then.
Did this model successfully predict socio-political and influences of now historic calamitous events that hadn’t happened yet when it was run?
What parameters did they base the model on, anyway?
primarily, the human in the model has no brains or hands; only a stomach.
These predictions seem to overlook that past predictions were wrong because we humans don’t just sit around waiting for the disaster to occur. We are constinctly advancing technology to overcome these problems. According to some like Paul Ehrlich, he wrote in 1968 mass starvation was going to wipe us out in the 1980’s. These people seem to forget that we have a strong will to survive.
In 22 years, the children being born today will be entering the work force.
The education they receive either will or will not prepare them for what is in front of them.
We have allowed the Progressive establishment to take over our schools, colleges, and universities.
A progressive establishment that has turned today’s young adults into snowflakes and Beebos(1).
So the prediction may be accurate unless the Liberals are tossed out on their ass today, and a semblance of critical thinking and reasoning is returned to our campuses.
(1) Lost young adults with “a few screws loose.”
Joel, there are many of our local kids here who are true conservatives. They have been subjected to the socialist academic environment, gotten their degrees by playing along peacefully and just ignoring the indoctrination. Once they return to the community they tell the rest of us how screwed up their alma-mater was. Gives me hope.
A fascinating forecast shows that the quality of life is expected to drop dramatically right after 2020.
Yall better hope the Don does it again,……… cos if he doesn’t that will come true.
1973 huh? Using the “one of the world’s largest computers”?
Not impressed.
In 1996 programmers developed software that using the latest generation computers attempted to map the entire history of the civilised world from 4000BC out into the near future. The aim was to discover if it was possible to build a civilization that would stand the test of time.
What did they discover?
Gandhi loves his nukes!
Jokes aside, I would take Sid Meier over Club of Rome any day.
That was my first thought as well, just what did we have for computing power then? I worked on the 32-bit CPU in the early 80s and remember a Mb of memory was $1000 in the late 80s. I had a hand-held basic-programed computer with a qwerty keyboard that had 50K of memory. I’d bet a modern smart phone is more powerful than anything from the early 70s.
That’s for sure, any supercomputer of the 70’s would have had to crunch numbers for decades to do just a modern climate model. How could it run enough factors involved to give a year’s predictions, much less the end of society? Keep in mind, though, that society was mesmerized at that time by the advances of science and the wonder of computers. Much GIGO could exist with little informed public scrutiny.
Link to technology from 1972-73
https://www.thocp.net/timeline/1972.htm
Cray-1 (1975 so older than whatever they used to model).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cray-1
CPU 64-bit processor @ur momisugly 80 MHz
Memory 8.39 Megabytes (up to 1 048 576 words)
Storage 303 Megabytes (DD19 Unit)
FLOPS 160 MFLOPS
I can remember being impressed by those numbers when they came out.
Seems to me that it is MIT that has undergone collapse, spouting Club of Rome propaganda.
Spot on!
Or grammar becomes so seriously it will start to kill people’s brain cells.
Hmm, I’m 59 years old, so in 2040 I’ll be 81. My old man died at 83. I figured I might make it to 90, but 81 is fine. Sucks for everyone younger than me, but whatever.
Sounds like total BS, but even if it’s true it changes pretty much none of my plans.
The super computer in 1973 was eclipsed by the TI 30 hand held calculator a few years later. Back in 73 we still had Freon. And we knew that the Russians would only ever bomb us on the first Tuesday of the month at 10:00 am.
In which movie does one character say, “I hear the world is going to end tonight. I think I’ll just go home and watch it on television.”?
Was that movie “Failsafe”?
A bit of hubris, calling yourself the “Club of Rome.” More apt would be the “Club of Barstow.”
“Quality of life will go down to zero” awe damn, and we were just about to turn it to 11.
Okay. Then we should have a big party until that time.
But, of course, the predictions I heard back in the early to mid 70’s also talked about how we would be out of oil by 1990. From an old contest show: “Tell him what he didn’t win Jay”
The truth is that peak oil has been predicted again and again, and yet we are awash in it. That’s because the assumptions about things like resources never takes into account innovation, and the things the price signal can incentivize. People look at a snapshot in time and are simply unable to look beyond what they know.
Even if we ran out of something like Uranium (fat chance), we could extract Uranium from sea water. The prediction is always “if nothing changes in our knowledge”.
“Say say two thousand four zero party over, oops, out of time
So tonight I’m gonna party like it’s two thousand thirty-nine”
Yeah, that can work.
Prediction of human demise always discounts human ingenuity.
Can’t remember who said it first.
Maybe it was in an Adam West Batman script.
“Okay. Then we should have a big party until that time.”
So many women….so little time !!
So glad to know. I I’ll be 88 by then and now I can plan my retirement and make sure we consume every penny we worked so hard for.
I graduated as agricultural engineer when the first report came out and must admit that it impressed me.
Indeed, in those days, computers could not be wrong. It took me a number of years to understand the limits of simulated computer predictions (when I was working on my PhD)
I was told that Gore was a member of the club. Can anyone confirm this?
In any case it looks as if this Malthusian inspired attack on humanity fizzled out and then they invented the climate scare. That gave them a better run for their money – for our money I mean -with trillions wasted that could have been put to a much better use, such as electrification of the world.
I love the “Garbage In, Doomsday Out” slogan, it could apply to any climate model …
Thanks for a good laugh, Anthony.
w.
Ok, I’d love to hear how this model was validated!
It produced what the writers wanted to see. So it must be correct.
Only God the Father (of the Bible) has determined the end of the world as we know it. When Jesus returns, all people will see Him at the same time and know.
Is this computer program one that was written in or shortly before 1973? Without accounting for pollution controls such as catalytic converters, positive crankcase ventillation, and coal-fired power plants getting “scrubbers” and diesel engines becoming made less-polluting? Without accounting for modern technology that makes automatic transmissions in modern cars as efficient as ideally-operated manual transmissions? Or cars getting smaller and lighter in the US after the mid 1970s? Without accounting for increased farm productivity due to more CO2, cold temperatures warming while extreme hot temperatures are hardly warming, and advancing technologies including GMO technology?
You must be kidding. “Or cars getting smaller and lighter in the US after the mid 1970s?”
Have you been in a parking lot to observe this recently?
scientology’s wicked step sister?