From the University of Illinois and the “correlation is not causation” department comes this claim.
Study finds possible connection between U.S. tornado activity, Arctic sea ice
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The effects of global climate change taking place in the Arctic may influence weather much closer to home for millions of Americans, researchers report.
The United States has experienced many changes in severe-weather behavior over the past decade, including fewer tornado touchdowns than in the past. A new study suggests that atmospheric circulation changes that coincide with a loss of Arctic sea ice may be partly to blame.
Atmospheric scientists from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Purdue University report their findings in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science.
“A relationship between Arctic sea ice and tornadoes in the U.S. may seem unlikely,” said (Robert) Jeff Trapp, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the U. of I. and a co-author. “But it is hard to ignore the mounting evidence in support of the connection.”
Photo by L. Brian Stauffer
The researchers performed statistical analyses of nearly three decades of historical weather and climate data and found significant correlations between tornado activity and the extent of Arctic sea ice – especially during the month July.
The team believes that the reduction in tornado activity boils down to how the diminishing Arctic sea ice controls the path of the jet stream. As Arctic sea ice retreats, the jet stream migrates from its traditional summer path over states like Montana and South Dakota to areas farther north, and the atmospheric conditions that are favorable for tornado formation follow suit.
“Tornadoes and their parent thunderstorms are fueled by wind shear and moisture,” Trapp said. “When the jet stream migrates north, it takes the wind shear along for the ride, but not always the moisture. So, even though thunderstorms may still develop, they tend not to generate tornadoes because one of the essential ingredients for tornado formation is now missing.”
The team believes that the correlation between Arctic ice retreat and jet stream migration may lead to advances in seasonal severe weather prediction.
“One of the reasons that we focused on sea ice is because, like the ocean and land, it is relatively slow to evolve,” Trapp said. “Because sea ice and the atmosphere are coupled, the response of the atmosphere is also relatively slow. We can use this property to help make long-term predictions for tornadoes and hail, similar to the way predictions are made for hurricane seasons.”
But before doing so, Trapp said they still need to understand the drivers of the sea ice changes and what role the tropics may be playing.
It remains unclear as to why this correlation is particularly dominant during the month of July, the researchers said, and they admit that they are only at the tip of the iceberg in terms of understanding the overall effects of climate change, and climate variability, on severe weather.
The paper:
The paper “Exploring a possible connection between U.S. tornado activity and Arctic sea ice” is available online and from the U. of I. News Bureau.
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-018-0025-9
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Let’s review. Perhaps I am wrong and the good people commenting here will correct me.
The position of the jet stream is the RESULT of the warmer southern air mass clashing with the colder northern air mass. The more powerful wins and the jet stream moves north or south as a result.
Over the central plains of the U.S. if the jet stream is moved north it is because the southern air is winning but that brings the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico right up along with it. It is the clash of warm moist gulf of Mexico air mass with the cold dry Canadian air mass that causes the thunderstorms and tornadoes.
So it would seem logical that a warmer arctic makes the Canadian air mass warmer so that it is more easily driven north by the southern air mass and the jet stream track moves north. But I don’t see the connection to less thunderstorm activity and tornadoes unless the warm southern air mass cools as it flows north thus reducing the difference in air masses further resulting in more stable air.
Did I just answer my own question?
The Gulf air also loses moisture as it cools, ie it rains.
Nebraska has been cooler than usual this year.
Tom in Florida
Tsk.
It doesn’t work that way in alarmist climate science and you know it.
Write out one hundred times “I am a climate automaton and will brook no contradiction”.
There, feel better now?
“The position of the jet stream is the RESULT of ….” and so on.
Jet streams are formed in the atmosphere at altitudes of about 8 to 15 kilometers, and are planet spanning, or nearly so.
You write of regional (limited) storms — the warmer (southern) air coming from the Gulf of Mexico is less dense than the cooler air farther north, and the less dense rides up (more or less) over the cooler. “Win” isn’t a term that fits. The phrase “more powerful” is better applied to muscle cars and pickup trucks.
Other things involved: Baroclinic waves (eddies) in upper atmospheric circulations, land masses, and the physics of conservation of angular momentum.
These are interrelated and complex, and why the patterns are so difficult to explain.
Do they not know that Arctic sea ice extent has essentially not changed in ten years?
Probably, but the average Joe doesn’t know that, and that’s who it’s targeted at.
The trend since 2007 is actually up, despite the record low year of 2012.
Theo
Aye my boy, the Trossachs are damn cold when yer wearin the Kilt!
Brrrrrrrrr…….
Could have fooled me.
https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.oGzIyqvoVnboEOXKkxin2QHaFu&pid=15.1&P=0&w=225&h=175
Where are you getting your data?
Kristi,
Did it really escape your notice that your graph isn’t for the past ten years?
Kristi
This is Arctic ice volume over the last 13 years (unlucky for some):
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Arctic-sea-ice-volume-12-years-August-8-2018-Kirye.png
On August the 8th. It goes the other way on the 9th.
I laughed out loud. Good joke. But, I doubt if
that is true as ice extent will not change much from
one day to the next. If it does, it will be due to wind
which just shows that the 15% extent is not the most
stable measure of ice.
True, it varies quite a bit so picking a single day doesn’t show much. The volume change over the last 20 or 30 years is a much better indicator. Ice on a lake can be 100% extent for weeks on end into spring, getting thinner and thinner…then gone in one day. Thats what we’ve got in the Arctic, extent reducing but volume plunging and whats left is mostly thin first year slush.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2278.0;attach=106207
RyanS
But, less Arctic sea ice, over the course of an entire year, means even greater heat lost from the exposed Arctic Ocean compared to an ice-covered Arctic.
Why are you worried about changes in Arctic Sea Ice extents or area?
I thought basic weather was generally understood. That heat around the Equator from the Sun mixing with the cold from the Poles creates high and low pressure turbulence. The more Ice at the Poles there is, the stronger the weather will become. Because of the difference between hot and cold mixing. Remove the Polar Ice and the whole Earth becomes a Tropical Weather Climate with more Atmospheric Water. Where more Ice at the Poles and Glacial conditions creates stronger storms globally, from the hot around the Equator from the Sun, and less Atmospheric Water that’s condensed to closer to the Equator.
johchi7
Duh!
It’s CO2 wotdunnit mate. Stick your science, I knows best!
Quick, quick, sarc key…….Oh never mind, too late.
I seriously cannot imagine any reputable Journal publishing this garbage. Things have really gone downhill drastically in the climate discipline.
I hate to get personal but, I’m sorry, that photograph looks like a badly reconstructed model of early man with green screen computers dropped in.
Or is it the lack of the usual immaculately manicured beard most alarmist climate scientist’s seem to sport that undermines his credibility.
He needs a goatee to be taken seriously.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zhBBsyXwPkg/VXrXwebm8uI/AAAAAAAAA98/sVGj8ktmCcM/s1600/Beard%2BHair%2BStyles%2B1.JPG
“they still need to understand the drivers of the sea ice changes”
Yes sir. They do need to understand that. It’s not as simple as agw causes sea ice decline.
https://chaamjamal.wordpress.com/2018/08/04/does-global-warming-drive-changes-in-arctic-sea-ice/
Well if that’s so – the hurricane drought could end soon as the Arctic ice seems to be on a trajectory toward recovery:
http://notrickszone.com/2018/08/10/sham-predictions-by-nasa-nsidc-u-of-cambridge-vp-al-gore-sen-john-kerry-exposed/
WUWT Readers, I’ve written a post to address the Social Media Censorship I wanted to share with you.
Comprehensive Climate Change Debating Points and Graphics; Bring It Social Media Giants. This is Your Opportunity to Do Society Some Real Good
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/08/11/comprehensive-climate-change-debating-points-and-graphics-bring-it-social-media-giants-this-is-your-opportunity-to-do-society-some-real-good/
>>
. . . they admit that they are only at the tip of the iceberg in terms of understanding the overall effects of climate change . . . .
<<
Sometimes the truth slips out. In other words, “They don’t have a clue!”
Jim
The study is loaded with weasel words.
I’m becoming much less enamoured of academia. Would we miss them if they disappeared?
found significant correlations between tornado activity and the extent of Arctic sea ice – especially during the month July.
A bit of googling suggests that July is the hottest month of the year (hence fastest rate of ice melting) and also the month of the year with the lowest incidence of major tornadoes.
They found a correlation with summer.
Duh.
Tornadoes on the brain.
Hate it when that happens.
“…As Arctic sea ice retreats, the jet stream migrates from its traditional summer path over states like Montana and South Dakota to areas farther north…”
Maybe a migrating jet stream is leading to sea ice retreat, not the other way around…
Old theory.
‘global climate change taking place in the Arctic’
I don’t think that has any actual meaning.
Yes. Surely any warming which might have occurred in the Arctic is regional.
The Antarctic, by contrast, hasn’t warmed at all.
I wonder when they will run out of fraudulent ideas to perpetuate nonexistent “global warming”. Probably never as long as public funds are doled out to pseudo-scientists for fraudulent research. When the Trump witch hunt is over, perhaps Trump will clean house at NOAA and NASA, the liars at the forefront of this conspiracy.
Statistical mumbo jumbo searching for a ‘p’ they can call significant.
That little superscript reference number 51? It refers to this paper. “Whiton, R. C., Smith, P. L., Bigler, S. G., Wilk, K. E. & Harbuck, A. C. History of operational use of weather radar by U.S. weather services. Part I: The Pre-NEXRAD era. Wea. Forecast. 13, 219–243 (1998)”
NEXRAD became operational in 1988 with full implementation, operation and ability over the years. Since that early period, Nexrad has undergone improvements, software and hardware changes.
Great advances occurred to NEXRAD’s capabilities along with improvements to NEXRAD analysis during the last five-eight years of this alleged study.
Limitations and biases that apparently not represented with error bounds.
Modeled sparse data is then used to find assumed correlations? BAsed upon jet stream movements?
From that NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory site:
Nowhere in Trapp’s research is correlation identified, evaluated or proven; other than through mutable statistics, run until results they liked were gained.
Causation remains unproven.
Just more press release glory and funding seeking.
Ever since the global warming and then climate change debate started everything that’s bad with weather would happen. Less ice, severe droughts, floods, more and worse hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones, more cat 5 tornados. The list goes on. It seems when there is a result that doesn’t fit the prediction a researcher comes up with a reason why not but still links it back to climate change or CO2.
You think THAT is a connection? Well how about this: My research shows that 100% of a small group I am studying that ever ate carrots, died within about 100 years.
I just need a grant or two to expand my study to a larger group – but it looks promising! A few $million should do it.
Did they see it coming?
Did they see it coming?
Well done.
I don’t see the connection. Arctic sea ice is increasing and tornadoes are getting less frequent and less powerful. We may be close to setting a record low for the number of tornadoes moving through Tornado Alley this year.
Tornado strength and numbers are definitely down. It doesn’t look like it has anything to do with Arctic ice. This study certainly didn’t show any connection, as far as I could see.
Heavy sea ice year in the US Arctic. Quiet tornado season too. Guess this year doesn’t fit the correlation.
https://portal.aoos.org/old/#module-metadata/f55d3d00-aa4e-11e3-8992-00219bfe5678/a5b58402-a9c1-11e3-a3fe-00219bfe5678
“Because sea ice and the atmosphere are coupled, the response of the atmosphere is also relatively slow
sigh. welcome to my beautiful nightmare in the Land of Confusion-
So we have here: A Little Gem – and Garbage
Firstly garbage – “relative”
Relative to what? Another atmosphere perchance, so how many do we have?
Another time, another place maybe but: Do Please Give Us A Clue: Mr Grinning Idiot Scientist. Keep practising that look to get the superb smug of Gore The Great.
The gem: “ice & atmosphere are coupled”
Here we have a (subconscious)** admission that what happens on the ground affects what happens in the atmosphere – the subject of my repetitive ravings since I first ever writ anything on here. Good on ya.
** The human animal cannot pass untruth. He *knows* without knowing, that forest-cutting, paddy-fielding, ploughing, agriculture-in-general *and* Urban Heat can and does affect the weather.
How can less tornados be assosiated with extreme weather. It is doublespeak. Call it what it is: milder weather.
Extreme weather is a meaningless PC term that is suddenly all the rage. What is the scientific definition.
If it is normal to get tornados how can a tornado be extreme weather. That would make normal weather the new extreme. It is nonsensenonsense.
“The team believes that the correlation between Arctic ice retreat and jet stream migration may lead to advances in seasonal severe weather prediction.”
The use of the word ‘retreat’ is emotive and meaningless. Every year the arctic ‘retreats’ by approx 10,000,000 sq. km.
Connection?
Longest day = mid June
Peak Tornado = early June
Minimum Arctic Ice = mid September
And Hurricanes?
Longest day = mid June
Peak sea temp Miami = mid August
Peak sea temp South UK = mid August
Peak Hurricanes = early Sept
Minimum Arctic Ice = mid September