My friend in Europe, Marcel Crok writes to me saying:
Hi Anthony
The two images in the link above are being used wildly during the current heat wave we experience in Western Europe.
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My bullshit detector goes off but I can’t really put my finger on it.
My bullshit detector goes off but I can’t really put my finger on it.
Can you share it with some experts in your network and ask for feedback?
Especially Antarctic looks crazy.
Cheers
Marcel
Here is the link and the screencap:
Here is an infographic I prepared that illustrates the problem. There’s only one datapoint, the Amundsen-Scot south pole station, where there data from it is being smeared over a 1200 kilometer radius in the image above on Reddit, but in the image below, using the controls available at NASA GISTEMP, set to the 250 kilometer smoothing, we can see lots of missing data in Antarctica:
Amundsen-Scot station is a nice little city of fossil-fueled warmth, where they measure the temperature for the south pole.
Schmidt and co know merely producing these graphs and blaming CO2 is cargo cult science, they have an agenda, proven over and over by their own public comments on the topic of AGW, they know they have no actual evidence, so push the agenda along with propaganda\advocacy. Schmidt imo has no integrity at all, he was appointed primarily for that fact, not his skill, because no average mathematician should be leading on GISS Temp at NASA, NASA should only employ the best. NOAA and NASA have been recruiting in their climate departments for years, based on beliefs not achievement. What had Schmidt achieved in order to get the job? Here’s a clue.. nothing.
In my simple IT work over 20 years I have helped hundreds of thousands of people, far more than Schmidt has ever done to help humanity, even though IT is not an environmental or humanitarian field. Schmidt deems himself an activist, yet I have never read of his achievements in this area, the supposed good he has done. All he has done is take a **** on NASA’s reputation. Having challenged him with questions many times, only to be ignored (just like with Zeke Hausfather lying and not fessing up) it gets tedious. These pathological liars, demonstrable liars both, have done nothing to further science, nothing to help anyone, and have only served to make progressives mentally ill (Holthaus)
FYI Schmidt is not arrogant because of his belief in his own intelligence, far from it, he knows himself he could not cut it in mathematics. His arrogance is a shield, to protect his fragile ego from the hard questions he can’t answer without debunking is own claims
When he does answer hard questions on Twitter, to the likes of Tom Nelson, Schmidt keeps redirecting to NOAA, because that’s his out, “ask NOAA” when presented with evidence of data manipulation and imho outright scientific malfeasance.
the lie is comparing June 1976 to june 2018.
instead of comparing June 1968/1968 to June 2018.
https://www.google.at/search?q=la+Ni%C3%B1a+1968+1979&oq=la+Ni%C3%B1a+1968+1979&aqs=chrome.
The reason for the comparison was because this summer has been referred to like the one in 1976, which has been the hottest recorded in the UK. Still very premature because August has not even started yet.
The comparison globally is a unfair one because 1976 still had influence from a Strong La Nina during 1975/76, whereas recently had Strong El Nino and currently ~+0.5. Blocking covers larger areas of the NH in 2018 so it will effect more regions.
What this does highlight is that despite a difference in global temperatures over more than 40 years. The heatwaves in severity are no worse than before because they rely on blocking being persistent not a little warming in global temperatures. Between the 1970’s and 2000’s these blocking patterns reduced with a more zonal jet stream especially during winter. Blocking patterns have increased this century with a decline in solar activity.
Central England Temperature = CET
The CET for June 1976 was 17.0c compared with June 2018 at 16.1c.
The CET for July 1976 was 18.7c compared with July 2018 that looks like finishing around 19.1c.
There have been warmer months in the past than these for both June and July.
As others have mentioned, that was sort of the point of comparing the two charts in the first place. During Britain’s 1976 heatwave, temperatures were slightly below average globally. The same was true in July 1976, by the way.
The point being that in 1976 Britain was a fairly isolated warm red blob in an otherwise mostly cooler than average world. In 2018, Britain’s is just another red blob in a canvas of other red blobs. Likely this will be the same in July.
There is a reason for more red blobs as you put it. There is far more blocking in the Northern Hemisphere over the last two months than 1976.
1976
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1976&maand=6&dag=16&uur=1800&var=1&map=1&model=noaa
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1976&maand=6&dag=30&uur=1800&var=1&map=1&model=noaa
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1976&maand=7&dag=16&uur=1800&var=1&map=1&model=noaa
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1976&maand=7&dag=30&uur=1800&var=1&map=1&model=noaa
Currently
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=32&model=gfs&var=1&time=3&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3
Matt G
No doubt that’s true to an extent. Some might argue that this ‘blocking’ feature has become more of an issue than it was previously, possibly due to Arctic sea ice reduction; but I don’t know enough to comment on that.
Personally I think that ‘warmist’ supporters have made a mistake in claiming that warmer than average temperatures across the Northern hemisphere this summer is ‘proof’ of global warming; or even ‘evidence for’.
To my mind that’s the same silly argument as claiming that a cold winter or spring, etc in the Northern Hemisphere is ‘proof’ that global warming doesn’t exist.
Neither ‘prove’ anything. As ever, the best we can fall back on are long-term (30-year +) trends averaged over large areas.
Is there a graph showing the trend in blocking v time, or, better yet, v atmospheric CO2 concentration, so that the blocking can be blamed on The Magic Molecule?
The NAO and AO indexes represent increased blocking in the Northern Hemisphere when in the negative phase. The trend is up then down so even the magic molecule has difficulty being responsible for this.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Winter-NAO-Index.svg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/Arctic_Oscillation.svg
The problem with the Arctic ice declining since the late 1970’s being, the jet stream become increasingly zonal around the same time until the 2000’s. There was a clear signal of this trend, but only since the 2000’s that blocking has become increasingly present. While Arctic ice has continued to decline and become more stationary for a number of years now. Solar activity has definitely declined this century and during the CET data with low solar activity, blocking regular occurred especially during the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. One year there would be a hot summer and the next year a severely cold winter. Sometimes they would had occurred in the same year.
I don’t see how a turn around can occur by the same trending factor, there must be something else changing the behaviour other than Arctic sea ice.
Yes, season’s are just weather so the alarmists are not doing their cause any good.
Heat maps are an abomination.
I recently left a query asking if ‘some experts in the network’ (as Marcel puts in) could consider whether this summer’s weather owes anything to the late February SSW event?
The Authorised Version is that the effects of SSWs only persist for a couple of months, but could the nature of the surface in the areas most affected by a particular event and their consequent ability to retain exceptional cold or heat extend that duration?
And, of course, the scales on the two maps are different.
Don’t worry, it’s still cold enough to snow dry ice regardless of the anomaly to data they don’t.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0110.1
Hmm, a proposition to sequester CO2 in Antarctica by putting a liquid nitrogen refrigerators within 400+ plants and subsequent burial. Wind will provide the energy so it will be carbon neutral. Now they just need to find the gnomes to operate the plants and unicorns to oversee the burial.
Does anyone know of any application of geostatistics to temperatures?
Geology has a long history of understanding the distance that you can use a data point to estimate other points. Thinking of Kriging and its use in say developing an estimate of a gold deposit.
I suspect the distance of influence of temperature measurements at discrete points would be quite low (maybe tens of kilometres), and definitely highly influenced by direction.
Marcel – Thanks for pointing this out. I have submitted a paper about the Antarctic to a peer-reviewed journal, in which I explain why (amongst other things) the IPCC’s view of Antarctica is now untenable (it’s very much related to the issue which you have identified). It took them three months to find reviewers, then two months for review. I have revised and responded in polite detail to every one of the reviewers’ comments, but the reviewers now don’t have time to review the revision. Another month later, and some more possible reviewers have apparently been approached, but they don’t have time either. In the meantime, rubbish from NASA and others gets a free run. It’s a frustrating game…..
I call BS on the premise of the map at upper right. Notice the caption is “Anomaly vs. 1951-1980.” Okay, then where’s the data to back up the assertion that 1951-80 was some perfect or perfectly representative era of climate? If you refuse to use some longer-range comparison for your comparison, then you are cherry picking.
The base period is arbitrary. It simply produces a number that is used to calculate the anomalies that are used in looking at trends. You could pull a number out of a hat, and the anomalies would stay the same *relative to each other*.
The anomalies are not relative to each other because the station coverage had greatly changed and there was little data during that period in the southern hemisphere especially at the beginning. SST’s especially from the beginning of that period were much worse being very limited in the northern hemisphere and scarce in the southern hemisphere.
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10178730
“Antarctica is all red. I think it is not a good sign”
It isn’t all red when done properly and how does UAH compare?
The UAH covering Antarctica up to 85S doesn’t show the made up warming that one land station causes for GISS. It does match up with some warming around 2 to 3 c above normal, when taking most land stations individually into account.
The last similar blocking in the northern hemisphere during summer occurred in 2006 shown below.
Summer 2006 was very similar to this summer in June and July so far for England using the CET, but currently marginally warmer than 2018.
Why miss this summer out and talk about 1976?
Partly because the media likes to hype up events with it being very dry in some regions over last 2/3 months similar to 1976, but ended in most regions with recent thunderstorms and rain. It will warm up again later this week with no rain in the forecast.