40-year veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell’s Saturday Summary shows how the Earth’s surface has cooled dramatically over the past three years and that Arctic sea ice is piling up.
Hurricane threat to East Coast due to natural factors
First at his most recent Saturday Summary, the 40-year meteorologist first warns that in-close developing hurricanes of the sort seen in the 1930s are a risk to the US East Coast this year, due the current Atlantic temperature pattern. The reason has nothing to do with CO2 in the atmosphere, but because of natural sea surface temperature cycles.
Sea surface temperatures see “pretty dramatic turnaround”
Next Joe Bastardi illustrates the stark sea surface cooling the globe has seen over the recent years. The following two charts show the “pretty dramatic” cooling that has occurred over the past three years, 2015 vs 2018:
Cropped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary.
The two images above show the surface temperatures of the globe for the years 2015 – 2018. Note the profound cooling that has taken place from 2015 to 2018.
Bastardi calls it “a pretty big flip” and “a pretty dramatic turnaround”.
Arctic turns frigid
As sea surface temperatures around Greenland and in the Arctic are currently below normal, they are having an impact on Arctic surface temperatures this summer.
Joe Bastardi notes that according to the Danish DMI, Arctic temperature has been below normal over the entire summer:
Moreover, Arctic mid-summer temperatures, north of 80°N latitude, have dipped to near freezing over the past days. This is likely in large part linked to the cold North Atlantic sea surface temperatures we’ve been witnessing. All this suggests ocean cycles, and not CO2, are the real Arctic drivers.
Snow and ice climbing past decade
The cold polar temperatures are naturally having an impact on Arctic snow and ice.
Japanese blogger Kirye tweeted here that Arctic sea ice volume is currently at the 4th highest level since 2003, thus defying the dire alarmist predictions of Arctic sea ice disappearing by now.
Arctic sea ice volume (m3) has eased off from third place and is now at the 4th highest level since 2003, and showing an upward recovering trend over the past decade. Chart: Kirye.
Also at the 11:50 mark of his Saturday Summary video, Joe shows that Arctic sea ice extent is well above the levels seen over the previous years.
More at No Tricks Zone
You can see more about the Arctic at the WUWT sea-ice page
UPDATE: In response to Mr. Bastardi’s comments in the thread for this post, the title was changed to be more reflective of what his briefing points were. – Anthony
Here we can see the local peak ice volume in years: 2004 , 2009 2014 . This is the circa 5y periodicity I noted in Arctic sea ice variations in 2013 , which got Grant Foster in a hissy fit.
https://climategrog.wordpress.com/category/intolerance-in-scientific-debate/
This pattern would suggest that next year will see another local peak and be higher than this year. Before dropping back somewhat in the following year. The two panic years in summer ice minimum , 2007 and 2012 were also five years apart.
It now seems pretty clear that the supposed “tipping point” effect caused by a positive feedback from open water absorbing more sunlight was alarmist speculation, based on conjecture which can no longer be backed up by observation.
The sustained recovery since 2012 OMG minimum is simply not compatible with the hypothesis that this positive f/b is a dominant factor. The actual behavior is much more supportive of negative feedbacks leading to a recovery or a much longer term cycle of about 60 years, of which our satellite data is just a snip.
As I noted in Sept 2016 : THE DEATH SPIRAL IS DEAD.
https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2016/09/17/the-death-spiral-is-dead/
Just in case that Twitter account gets deleted for propagating non approved facts, here is the source link to the DMI data, which seems to come from ERA interim.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/txt/IceVol.txt
DMI temperatures and volume are not data. They are model outputs.
Not data: MODELS
models
with a M
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23717
http://ocean.dmi.dk/models/hycom.uk.php
The volume model is based on Hycom model and it is currently diverging from the model it is based on.
because DMI volume is based on a model, because ALL arctic ice volume data relies on models
it is vitally imprtant to:
1. Compare and present ALL the models? why? because the biggest uncertainty is structural
2. Investigate past attempts to “validate’ the model using what little validation data there is
( like from icestat, cryostat, and actual insitu spot measurements)
http://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:1504406/component/escidoc:1577914/polfor.2016.006.pdf
Bottom line: its far too uncertain to say anything definitive about volume, basically you can talk about the long term trend. Anything else and you will likely fool yourself
Also, DMI north of 80 does not do proper area averaging, so take it with a grain of salt.
Arctic looking cold.
Then why was it so darn warm in the 90s, and the last 5 years its not, Lets put it this way, comparing DMI to DMI and also looking at ACTUAL SURFACE AND 5 K TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC this summer, its colder than average, And given its near the top of the averages, where variations at the warm time of the year are not that great, it is significant, But go back and look at the 1990s, I can actually see why there was so much concern when its peaking 2-3 C above the mean, But the same system that measured that, is measuring it now so you cant have it both ways, BTW I dare anyone to go back and look at every single year and it will reveal precisely what I am saying about summers not warming compared to before, Winters yes, Seems to work fine then
I agree with Joe.
Note what DMI themselves say;
“Since the data are gridded, it is straight forward to deduce the average temperature North of 80 degree North. However, since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic. The ‘plus 80 North mean temperature’ graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.”
Emphasis mine, although they do put an exclamation point in there.
“But the same system that measured that, is measuring it now so you cant have it both ways,”
Actually DMI say:
“In the plot, the red curve is based on the average 2 m temperatures north of 80 degree North, from the twice daily ECWMF analyses. These are gradually becoming better and more detailed, as the NWP model system at ECMWF is improved with time. That is why the name shift with time (e.g. from T799 to T1279 in year 2010).”
Re: “BTW I dare anyone to go back and look at every single year…”
About 4 months back I did just that, Joe. Actually went through them a couple of times to confirm/deny my initial impressions.
The last 5 years, arctic summers have been colder than average. In the 90s’ they were warmer than average. The trends are as plain as an AGW proponent’s dissembling.
AGW warnings should concern us about conditions for our great grandchildren.
People are always looking for something conclusive happening today or in the recent past or the distant past. Even the physicists I brief on our projects think like this.
I guess it’s here to stay, it’s just stupid human nature.
Excerpted quote from article:
And it appears to me that the Mauna Loa maximum yearly average atmospheric CO2 ppm measurements began to reflect the aforesaid ……. “pretty dramatic” [sea surface] cooling ….. in 2016 with only a 1.95 ppm increase …… and continuing thru 2017 with only a 1.59 ppm increase.
To wit:
Mauna Loa yearly max CO2 ppm + yearly increase
2013 5 2013.375 399.78
2014 5 2014.375 401.78 +2.00 ppm increase between 5-13 and 5-14
2015 5 2015.375 403.96 +2.18 ppm increase between 5-14 and 5-15
2016 5 2016.375 407.70 +3.74 ppm increase between 5-15 and 5-16
2017 5 2017.375 409.65 +1.95 ppm increase between 5-16 and 5-17
2018 5 2018.375 411.24 +1.59 ppm increase between 5-17 and 5-18
If the aforesaid ….. “pretty dramatic” cooling of the sea surface continues, then the yearly average ppm increase between 5-18 and 5-19 will be somewhat less than +1.59 ppm, ….. and I will predict it to be +1.03 ppm.
Here is an interesting spot which I have been watching of late. The temp anomalies have been running close to -12 F for some time now in the eastern section of Hudson Bay. Today the anomaly rose into the -8 F range. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-42.79,45.42,1107/loc=-78.606,59.683
Look at the 700mb flow straight from due north.
Meanwhile, UK and much of Europe swelters now for nearly two months, and hardly any rain at all, grasses all burned brown. Big ridge (high) in mid Atlantic and across UK. Part of coming climate shift? Wild jet stream. Towards cold??? Sunspot absence?
The waves get bigger, Roger. More summer heat, more winter cold in the storm tracks. It’s not convincing enough to come to any conclusions about the future yet.