A University of Aizu team has identified two distinct Indo-Pacific processes shaping the unique features and extraordinary ferocity of super El Ninos. A systematic analysis of these processes and their interactions will improve forecasts of the elusive super El Ninos, the researchers claim.
“Until recently, scientists believed that climate and weather processes operating within the Pacific Ocean could explain the occurrence of super El Ninos. The infamously failed prediction of a super El Nino event in 2014 had its root in these assumptions,” says Saji Hameed from the University of Aizu, who led the study.
To unveil the mechanisms of super El Ninos, Hameed and his colleagues conducted computational simulations that recreated selected Pacific Ocean processes involved in the generation of El Ninos. To their surprise, they discovered a mechanism embedded within the Pacific Ocean, which prevented sea surface temperatures in the far-eastern Pacific rising too far above normal.
“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures are a notable feature of the super El Ninos that occurred in 1972, 1982, and 1997. The fact that Pacific Ocean processes responsible for generating regular El Ninos could not explain this key signature of super El Ninos came as a big shock,” says Dachao Jin, co-author of the study.
Noting that the years of super El Ninos co-occurred with Indian Ocean Dipole events (a phenomenon similar to El Nino, but generated by processes inherent to the Indian Ocean), the researchers explored possible mechanisms linking both phenomena. They found that while Pacific processes are needed to initiate El Ninos, it was the extra energy generated by the Indian Ocean Dipole, and transferred to the Pacific through atmospheric pathways, which eventually transformed the El Nino into a super El Nino event.
“A model for super El Ninos’ was published in Nature Communications.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04803-7
Explore further: Cause of El Nino abnormality found
More information: Saji N. Hameed et al. A model for super El Niños, Nature Communications (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04803-7
This paper is unbelievable rubbish. I visited the online paper – full text – and searched for “upwelling”. No hits. I searched for “Bjerknes”. No hits.
El Niño-La Nina (ENSO) is a coupled intermittent nonlinear oscillation linking Peruvian upwelling with the east to west blowing equatorial trade winds. This is the Bjerknes feedback discovered by, um, Bjerknes, the Norwegian oceanographer.
The millennial research community have forgotten Bjerknes and are now trying to explain an oceanic phenomenon while ignoring the ocean.
This is like trying to explain chemical reactions while ignoring electrons, looking only at protons, neutrons and gravity. Or to explain the orbits of planets and stars while ignoring gravity, looking only at electromagnetism and a planet’s surface colour.
ENSO is nothing to do with frickin meteorology! It’s about the Humbolt current and Peruvian upwelling. And maybe the ocean-driven trade winds whose existence depends on gradients of ocean surface temperature.
1972-73 and 1997-98 El Nino episodes were associated with slow solar wind periods. The 1982-83 El Nino would have been triggered by volcanic aerosol effects like 1991-92 was.
Joe Bastardi is working on this on his daily free met report (http://www.weatherbell.com/). He use his stock of analogues to help with short term forecasting, which calls for more work than your average Climatista seems to put in.
He notes a cold Indan Ocean eastern dipole and can give a good guess from experience at near-future seasonal USA weather. All in public, so we can all learn with him.
The Humboldt current, well that has its own sources around the might of Antarctica as well as what comes from the tropical west….
Joe B’s use of analogues reminds me of how Lorentzian Chaos works – once set in motion, predictable from initial condition. But not before. So keeping proper records should not be neglected.
Bob Tisdale really cracked ENSO and we should remember that too. Thanks Bob, you’re a Beaut.
The current Quiet Sun is, after due lag, seeming to weaken the ENSO by less deep solar ocean heating equatorally. We are finding that has power as a predictor.
The likes of Ian Wilson may wish to comment on initiators such as lunar crossings to the north of the equator…. But we do seem to see the effects of reduced solar energy input to Kelvin waves. As Bob Tisdale says, Charge-Discharge operates, and it needs solar recharge.
“Joe B’s use of analogues reminds me of how Lorentzian Chaos works – once set in motion, predictable from initial condition.”
Joe has also noted that low solar is associated with El Nino, that’s a negative climate feedback and nothing to do with chaos.
“The current Quiet Sun is, after due lag, seeming to weaken the ENSO by less deep solar ocean heating equatorally (sic)”
A quiet Sun increases El Nino conditions, and we very recently had a super El Nino. And with the decline in solar wind pressure since the mid 1990’s, tropical low cloud cover has declined, allowing increased ocean heating.
What!?
Where did they buy their computer code? Or did it arrive in a Cracker Jack box?
Now, predict the next dozen El Ninos and report your research after getting multiple accurate predictions. Predictions stated and documented now! Not revealed as a surprise after the El Ninos occur.
The assumption is that this fancy surprising computational codes identify and predict all precursors, each ocean section state and all post occurrences.