From Keele University and the “It’s like deja vu all over again” department with the leader of the “ship of fools” thrown in for comic relief. Long-time WUWT readers surely remember the single “Most influential tree in the world” from the Yamal fiasco, where the “signal” in one tree (YAD06) biased an entire paper with a hockey stick shape, making it worthless. Well, here we are again with another single tree used to define the entire globe. Obviously they’ve learned nothing, then again, it’s Chris Turney.
Loneliest tree in the world marks new age for our planet
An international research team, including Professor Christopher Fogwill from Keele University, has pinpointed a new geological age, the Anthropocene.
When humans first set foot on the moon in 1969, the people of that decade thought the world had changed forever. Little did they know the world had already laid down the precise marker of a far greater global change four years earlier, signalling our planet had entered an entirely new geological epoch, a time period defined by evidence in rock layers, the Anthropocene.
That new epoch began between October and December 1965 according to new research published today in Scientific Reports by members of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013-2014, which was co-led by co-author Professor Christopher Fogwill from Keele University.
The researchers were able to mark this profound change so precisely because of a “golden spike” found in the heartwood of a strange and singular tree, a Sitka Spruce found on Campbell Island, a World Heritage site in the middle of the Southern Ocean The spruce is locally referred to as ‘the loneliest tree in the world’ with the next closest tree over 200km away on the Auckland Islands.
The radioactive carbon spike was created by the culmination of mostly Northern Hemisphere atmospheric thermonuclear bomb tests in the 1950s and 1960s. The signal was fixed in the wood of the Campbell Island Sitka spruce by photosynthesis.
Professor Fogwill, Head of the School of Geography, Geology and the Environment at Keele University, said:
“The impact that humanity’s nuclear weapons testing has had on the Earth’s atmosphere provides a global signal that unambiguously demonstrates that humans have become the major agent of change on the planet. This is an important, yet worrying finding. The global atomic bomb signal, captured in the annual rings of this invasive tree species, represents a line in the sand, after which our collective actions have stamped an indelible mark, which will define this new geological epoch for generations to come.”
Various researchers from around the world have been talking about declaring a new geological epoch called the Anthropocene, indicating the point where human influence on the planet fundamentally changed the natural world. However, for a new epoch to be officially declared there must be a clear and precise “global” signal that can be detected in the geological forming materials of the future. This radiocarbon spike is that signal.
Lead author Professor Chris Turney, from University of New South Wales, said:
“We were incredibly excited to find this signal in the Southern Hemisphere on a remote island, because for the first time it gave us a well defined global signature for a new geological epoch that could be preserved in the geological record. Thousands of years from now this golden spike should still stand as a detectable marker for the transformation of the Earth by humankind.”
In the Northern Hemisphere, the atmospheric radiocarbon peak occurred in 1964 where the signal is preserved in European trees. That same peak took until late 1965 to reach the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere. With that, the signal became global, precise and detectable in the geological record, meaning it fitted the requirements as a marker for a new epoch.
The 100-year-old tree itself is an anomaly in the Southern Ocean. It is naturally found along the North American Pacific Coast but it is credited with being planted on Campbell Island by the Governor of New Zealand in 1901. The oceanic climate has had an unusual effect on the spruce. Although it has grown to 10m tall, the tree has never produced cones, suggesting it has remained in a permanently juvenile state.
Co-author Professor Mark Maslin, from University College London, said:
“It seems somehow apt that this extraordinary tree, planted far from its normal habitat by humans has also become a marker for the changes we have made to the planet, it is yet further evidence, if that was needed, that in this new epoch no part of our planet remains untouched by humans.”
The study:
Global Peak in Atmospheric Radiocarbon Provides a Potential Definition for the Onset of the Anthropocene Epoch in 1965
Abstract
Anthropogenic activity is now recognised as having profoundly and permanently altered the Earth system, suggesting we have entered a human-dominated geological epoch, the ‘Anthropocene’. To formally define the onset of the Anthropocene, a synchronous global signature within geological-forming materials is required. Here we report a series of precisely-dated tree-ring records from Campbell Island (Southern Ocean) that capture peak atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) resulting from Northern Hemisphere-dominated thermonuclear bomb tests during the 1950s and 1960s. The only alien tree on the island, a Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), allows us to seasonally-resolve Southern Hemisphere atmospheric 14C, demonstrating the ‘bomb peak’ in this remote and pristine location occurred in the last-quarter of 1965 (October-December), coincident with the broader changes associated with the post-World War II ‘Great Acceleration’ in industrial capacity and consumption. Our findings provide a precisely-resolved potential Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) or ‘golden spike’, marking the onset of the Anthropocene Epoch.
Open access here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-20970-5
So who says 1965 is the beginning of a new Epoch? There’s no consensus, and they can’t even decide if that’s the name. From Wikipedia’s definition of the Anthropocene:
As of August 2016, neither the International Commission on Stratigraphy nor the International Union of Geological Sciences has yet officially approved the term as a recognized subdivision of geological time,[3][5][6] although the Working Group on the Anthropocene (WGA) voted to formally designate the epoch Anthropocene and presented the recommendation to the International Geological Congress on 29 August 2016.
…
In January 2015, 26 of the 38 members of the International Anthropocene Working Group published a paper suggesting the Trinity test on 16 July 1945 as the starting point of the proposed new epoch.[20] However, a significant minority supports one of several alternative dates.[20] A March 2015 report suggested either 1610 or 1964 as the beginning of Anthropocene.[21] Other scholars point to the diachronous character of the physical strata of the Anthropocene, arguing that onset and impact are spread out over time, not reducible to a single instant or date of start.[22]
A January 2016 report on the climatic, biological, and geochemical signatures of human activity in sediments and ice cores suggested the era since the mid-20th century should be recognised as a distinct geological epoch from the Holocene.[23]
Turney is just looking to get his name listed as the identifier of the Anthropocene, nothing more. Fortunately, it won’t be decided by him.
The study is nothing but a headline grabber posing as science, just like Chris Turney’s original “Spirit of Mawson” aka “ship of fools” fiasco.
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Okay, maybe that’s not true the digital versions of “Waterworld” and “The Day After Tomorrow” have been pressed into gold discs and now orbit the outer planets for our far future progeny (or extra-terrestrial aliens) to find and interpret as historical records. But it IS true that the story of Xenu and all the Scientology dogma is written on gold sheets and stored in climate-proof and atomic attack resistant underground bunkers in New Mexico. Imagine future beings finding that after we’re all long gone, and then judging all humanity based on Xenu and the Body Thetans (BTs) freed in nuclear bomb volcanoes and caught in e-ribbons for brainwashing and Dianetics knitting needle abortion engrams! They’ll (rightly) think we here folks are nuts.
Chris Turney, are you going to allow the (real) Scientologists dogma and scriptures to outlive climate Scientology dogma and scripture? Lew papers inscribed on gold discs and buried in deep, geologically stable salt domes is the ticket, dude!
Hmmm… I got my degree from Keele, but that was back in the days when degrees didn’t come by collecting enough cornflake packet tops.
Chris Fogwill’s bio contains this:
“Chris obtained his BSc in Geological Oceanography at the University of Bangor in North Wales in 1995, and then joined the Department of Earth Sciences at Cambridge University as a postgraduate research assistant in the palaeoceanography group. This was followed by a PhD at the University of Edinburgh focused on ice-sheet reconstruction and modelling in Antarctica and Patagonia. After a NERC-funded postdoctoral research position within the School of Geoscience at Edinburgh, Chris took up a position as Senior Lecturer and Director of Programme in Physical Geography at the University of Exeter in 2007. This was followed by the Australian Research Council Future Fellowship in 2012 at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, where he was awarded an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship in 2012 based at the Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), the leading hub for climate system modelling in the Southern Hemisphere.
Chris is also an Associate Editor for Antarctic Science and the Nature family journal Scientific Reports; is a member of the Earth’s Past Future Research Network, and leads the PRECISE Network, a consortium of leading Asia-Pacific researchers focused on the projection of future sea-level rise. In joining Keele as Head of School and Chair in Glaciology and Palaeoclimatology, he will develop new capacity for the analysis of ice cores and cosmogenic nuclides within the School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Sciences, as well as drive new directions in climate and ice-sheet modelling with colleagues from both the School of Computer Science and Mathematics and his wider international network.”
You can see the connections there, and why he was chosen to do the work.
There is probably really nothing wrong with his analysis, as far as it goes, its just the extrapolation of the facts that he uncovered that go well beyond reasonable.
Hive minds are not creative. That’s why they run the same political playbook every cycle. It’s also why Hollywood barely puts out anything but sequels and copycats.
It mustve been disappointing when they found no warming signal in the rings. They certainly will have looked for it. But I guess divergence is spacially diverse.
Why even argue over proxies? The Hockeystick shows rapid and substantial warming over the past 100 years. Instrumental data sets controlled for the Urban Heat Island Effect don’t show that.
The “Faith-Based” Science; CAGW
Followers of the “Faith-Based” Science of Global Warming are worshiping at the altar of a Pagan idol and being deceived by a false prophet. Just recently the now discredited American Association of for the Advancement of Science awarded the Temple of CAGW’s High-Pharisee Michael Mann a distinguished award. The award is blasphemy and an affront to … Continue reading
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/02/19/the-faith-based-science-cagw/
Climate “Science” on Trial; Cherry Picking Locations to Manufacture Warming
One of the greatest scientific battles today is between which temperature measurements are most accurate. There are ground measurements maintained by NOAA, NASA GISS and the Hadley CRU, and then there are satellite measurements maintained by NASA UHA. Dr. Roy Spencer maintains a nice blog reporting on the satellite measurements. In reality, there are really … Continue reading
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/02/18/a-tale-of-two-cities-cherry-picking-locations-to-manufacture-warming/
There can be no argument over which temperature measurements are least accurate. Treemometers win that one hands down!
Mr. Watts, your blog post does not reflect well on your ability (and perhaps desire) to study materials for their content and meaning. Very superficial analysis.
Mr. Watts, your blog post does not reflect well on your ability (and perhaps desire) to study materials for their content and meaning. Very superficial analysis.
Just what all blogs need — another troll.
There is already more things to read than I have time for.
Please Vicki, do not post here again.
Speaking of superficial analysis, Vicki drops by to show us how it is done.
Since you consider yourself so smart, why don’t you stick around awhile and show where Mr. Watts came up short?
Or have you already flown back to your coven so you can tell your sisters what a good job you did telling us off?
Mr. Watts, your blog post does not reflect well on your ability (and perhaps desire) to study materials for their content and meaning. Very superficial analysis.
Vicki S. Nikolaidis your multiple postings do not reflect well on your ability to read simple instructions on the comment form.
If you have a meaningful complaint, state it with details. Otherwise it looks just like more of the “I don’t like your opinion” style of baseless complaint.
multiple postings? that’s was not intended. Let me know when you are ready to talk science! Thanks!
Unintentional or not, it is what occurred; without merit in any of the postings.
Then the door is left open for you to start a dialogue.
Result: No dialogue.
Empty posts, empty claims. all smears and total lack of substance from Vicki.
Meanwhile, commenters have raised a number of technical hurdles:
A) One tree represents local effects; not global.
B) Eras are geologic, not temporary brief plant matter
Anything else is unsurprising hubris.
@Vicki: You obviously didn’t check out this link which refers to the YAD06 tree to create the hockey stick graph:
BTW: 3 strikes and you’re out!
Sorry, I don’t get it, are you actually saying that the whole Mann’s temperature reconstruction for the past 1000 or so years is based on a single tree somewhere in Siberia, approximately, between 1945 and 1980? (that’s the yellow part of the graph you refer to)? Are you joking?
“Mr. Watts, your blog post does not reflect well on your ability (and perhaps desire) to study materials for their content and meaning. Very superficial analysis.”
Vicki, your comment does not reflect well on your ability (and perhaps desire) to study materials for their content and meaning. Very superficial comment.
This poor tree is obviously struggling to grow in an inhospitable Climate. It is in need of specialist botanical care and not molestation by Professor Chris Turkey. After his Ship of Fools Epic, it is surprising to see him surfacing again Using trees as thermometers is just plain looney, after all this counter-evidence on the subject.
I was hoping it was a cherry tree, for obvious reasons.
Let’s be very clear.
Michael Mann’s “special” tree in no way resulted in his bogus hockey stick. The stick caame about as a result of faulty math and a deliberate effort to hide the truth by sticking two graphs together. It was not science and it was not honest. There is a simple word for it.
It’s actually way past time we asked the many Warmists and apologists who frequent this site a simple question.
Do you believe Mann’s hockey stick paper is fraudulent? It’s a litmus test for scientific and personal integrity.
“Do you believe Mann’s hockey stick paper is fraudulent?”
Maybe need to use the word “think” instead of “believe.” That at least implies that some logic or reason is involved while “believe” is almost like “feel” these days.
For all we know now, the next radioactive bomb spike could usher in the M-A-Destructocene, making the Anthropocene (geologically speaking) extraordinarily brief to be considered an ‘epoch’.
You might not believe this, but I was playing golf on that island and damn if my ball didn’t end up under that tree. Anthropocene? And I say chop it down, it’s obscene to have just one tree out in the middle of nowhere.
I never thought that I would see
A world wide graph from a single tree
A tree that grows into the sky
Then used to create a climate lie
(With apologies to Joyce Kilmer)
how hard did they look for a tree that said the opposite ?
You have to read carefully. What they found was that in about the 1960’s there was a spike in certain radioactive isotopes taken up by the tree. These are not isotopes that occur naturally, so the implication is that they are man-made.
So far, so good.
The next step is a bit of a leap. They attributed this spike to nuclear tests made in the northern hemisphere, and took this to be proof that the fallout from those northern hemisphere tests had spread over the entire globe (at least, partially covering both hemispheres). As a post above points out, nuclear tests were not limited to the northern hemisphere, and there were even tests in Australia – basically this tree’s own back yard. So the assumption about fallout covering the globe isn’t really substantiated by this at all.
The basic science of detecting the isotope uptake in a (somewhat) specific date range seems solid enough.
The next step, making the assumption that this was due to northern hemisphere tests seems a bit half-cocked.
The real leap into absurdity occurs in then assuming that this will show up in any geological record.
It won’t. The half-life of the isotopes will ensure that they are basically undetectable by the time they make it into any rock.
This is the usual “climate science” story – start with some kernel of reasonably solid science and use it to construct castles in the air.
The Holy Marker peaked in 1965 and has been declining since. Because of radioactive decay, it will continue to decline until it is undetectable. Does that mean that the ‘Anthropocene’ is coming to an end?
What I gather from this is that each of these “researchers” (and I use that term loosely) is looking for the “seminal signal”, the “mark the spot” indicator – whatever else you want to call it – that will give them some fleeting bit of fame and possibly fortune, so they focus narrowly on one single thing, failing and/or refusing to recognize that a group of factors is more believable than a single thing.
The result is that I have less and less faith in their lopsided opinions about anything, opinions which are markedly biased toward the results they WANT, as against the REAL results that they get – as in the tree in the Maldives mentioned above.
When you have to fudge the results to make your point, dishonesty is your only product. The more I see of this kind of thing, the less inclined I am to believe anything that any of them (Warmians, CAGWers, etc.) say now because they make it clear that they will counterfeit anything to get what they want. That means they can’t be trusted, period.
YAWN….a complete irrelevance to science. A crab does not need to know it is called a crab. The world carries on regardless. These people are just trying to get their names in the history books.
A bit on my time at Keele and the Geology dept.
I knew a few people doing Geology. They were all pretty solid people, with a good science background at the time.
One day, I met a postgrad student, doing his PhD in Geology. I asked him what exactly he was doing.
He told me that he was working on some simulation program, adapting Fortran library packages, taking fluid mechanics equations and slowing them down enormously – basically, working on a program to simulate a rock.
I hope he got his PhD, and I am sure there was a lot more to it than simulating a rock, but I still haven’t quite got over the amusement factor.
Sounds Like he was working for solid answers from a solid foundation
/s
No Anthony, it’s not posing as science, it’s perfectly valid, if minor science, on which the authors have tried to hang too much significance. At best they have found a manmade signal coincident with the early anthropocene, but time will show it is a hundred or two years too late to mark the beginning. It does not directly relate to the defining characteristic of the anthropocene – the radical change of energy equilibrium on our planet – but it is perfectly valid science.
I thought you claimed some scientific credentials?
“the radical change of energy equilibrium on our planet”
Ha ha ha. Good one. Have you head of the Alarmocene?
Oops. Should have been “heard” not “head.” The declining radiation is impacting my spelling.
Nonsense. Finding something isn’t science. It’s what you do next that is science – explaining it. And they have not explained it, but attempted to hang all sorts of non-scientific meaning on it. And merely making banal assertions isn’t science either. Are you claiming scientific credentials?
Tree is not rock! [already mentioned].
Funny the abstract states “the only alien tree on the island”. WTF!
The guy did not bother to find out “who” planted the tree!
If it is alien, did it really get the C14 from the atmos or did someone else “spike” it! A-Ha!
Planted Evidence Again Soils The Piltdown Man!
Case closed. Book’m Dan-O.
Ha ha
It’s not only “the only alien tree on the island”. It is the only tree on the island. Period.
The tree has been growing in that spot for over a hundred tears
Did you read what you are commenting on?
“The tree has been growing in that spot for over a hundred tears”
Yes. All those tears. Because it is so lonely.
Back before humans ruined the planet it probably would have wandered around and found some friends. At least that’s what I think I heard that scientists say.
Here’s something I read that seems worth commenting about. Professor Fogwill, Head of the School of Geography, Geology and the Environment at Keele University describes the solitary Sitka spruce on Campbell Island as “this invasive tree species”.
After a hundred years, for a tree species to be called invasive… wouldn’t there have to be at least TWO on the island by now?
Oh well, it’s not like he’s dean of the university, just head of the department.
Gay trees
For a plant to be classed as “invasive” it has to be, well, invasive. This tree hasn’t produced a single seedling in a century, so it is about as uninvasive as it is possible to be. There are some alien plant species on Campbell, but none that can really be called invasive. The main invasive species was rats, but they have been successfully eradicated.
The loneliest tree in the world — and a bunch of busybodies come around bothering it and taking core samples. Poor thing.
Sure, why not?
Extrapolation from isolation to the wild.
Inference from limited, circumstantial evidence to global, universal assertions.
The conflation of logical domains is not limited to climate science.
Thought the tree was YAD061? Either way a single record applied globally is like averaging anomolies.
As my daughters would say when I took them camping,
“If you’ve seen one tree, then you’ve seen them all.”