Global warming/climate change advocates want us to believe that computer models will accurately predict temperature out to the year 2100, yet NOAA, which uses computer models to predict the next seasonal outlook, couldn’t even get that right. The north, northeast, and deep south have been in a deep freeze, with blizzard like conditions, and well below normal temperatures. Temperature records have fallen all over the eastern half of the USA in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, advocates of global warming/climate change certainty, such as Al Gore and Michael Mann, took advantage of the cold snap and said have said “that’s exactly what we should expect from the climate crisis“.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, reality bites for NOAA’s short term climate prediction.
From climate.gov, excerpts of their prediction in October.
Both the temperature and precipitation outlooks lean on typical La Niña impacts, particularly those of the past 30 years, and bear some resemblance to the outlooks issued for last winter (not surprisingly since the forecast guidance is similar – more on that below). In the image above, the winter precipitation outlook favors below-normal precipitation across the entire southern U. S., with probabilities greatest (exceeding 50%) along the eastern Gulf Coast to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, and southern South Carolina. In contrast, above-average precipitation is more likely across much of the northern parts of the country, in the northern Rockies, around the Great Lakes, in Hawaii, and western Alaska.
The temperature outlook shown above indicates above-average temperatures across the southern US, extending northward out West through the central Rockies and all the way up to Maine in the eastern part of the nation. Above-average temperatures are also favored in Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska. Chances are greatest in an area extending from the desert Southwest to central and southern Texas and Louisiana (greater than 50%).
Probabilities are tilted toward colder-than-normal temperatures along the northern tier from the Pacific Northwest to Minnesota and also in southeastern Alaska. However, the likelihood of below-average temperatures across the North is modest, with no probabilities in these regions reaching 50%.
…
Read the full outlook here
Surprisingly, the much maligned (as being with skill according to most NOAA meteorologists) Farmers Almanac got it somewhat right with the headline:
WINTER OUTLOOK 2017–2018: COLDER THAN LAST YEAR
Overall, the long-range winter forecast for 2017–2018 shows generally colder temperatures than last winter for the U.S. and Canada but not colder than a typical winter, based on historical averages.
However, their national forecast map didn’t really do justice to the cold wave we’ve seen.
The result is that 2017–18 winter temperatures will be colder than last winter, they will likely still be above normal in the eastern and north-central states, with below-normal temperatures the rule from the Gulf States westward to California and from the Intermountain region westward to the Pacific Northwest.
The reality has been quite different than the climate forecasts.
Arctic air brings bone-chilling temperatures to US (CNN)
Arctic Outbreak Was One of the Coldest on Record For Late December Into Early January (TWC)
Parts of the central and eastern U.S. experienced one of their coldest late December through early January periods on record.
…
Dozens of other cities from the northern Rockies to Texas to the Great Lakes and East Coast had at least a top-five-coldest two-week stretch ending Jan. 5, according to the SERCC.
According to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center, (SERCC) the following cities shivered through their record-coldest Dec. 23-Jan. 5 stretch:
- Bangor, Maine
- Worcester, Massachusetts
- Buffalo, New York
- Flint, Michigan
- Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Duluth, Minnesota
- Rockford, Illinois
- Waterloo, Iowa
- Lincoln, Nebraska
While winter is not yet over, and a warm-up is forecast for mid-week as the jet-stream changes, forecaster Joe Bastardi suggests that we’ll see more below normal weather soon afterwards.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/950005857193951232
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/950007855314341888
UPDATE: Dr. Ryan Maue quantifies just how cold it’s been:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/950134254725451777
Rob still can’t read.
NOWHERE did I state that this article was fake news. It was just an empty load of mindless rhetoric
I just noted that they RENOWNED for FAKE NEWS.
Now, Answer the question you are weaselling away from answering.
Do you agree that Sydney was NO WARMER than in 1939, despite massive urbanisation?
“. . . and meteorological winter includes December, January, and February.”
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/meteorological-versus-astronomical-seasons
And yet the peer reviewed paper 2018 hottest year ever is hot on the presses I’m sure
Raleigh, NC has apparently now set a new all-time record for continuous hours below freezing. In my book “trend” indicators like this are probably more meaningful than “point” indicators for a given low temp or given snowfall total.
If only Joe Bastardi could put a little more Del Ray in his Del Mar peninsulacentric view of the weather. Is Joe left handed? Begun to feel like everything west of the Chesepeake Bay.is just there to support his elbow while he draws lines all over the mid Atlantic. Surely the west coast difference in Dec precipitation 2016 v. 2017 was worth one daily update?
I understand that global warming scares you. It should. Regarding the cold snaps. The Arctic region is warming faster than any other, and studies suggest that this warming is weakening the jet stream, which ordinarily acts like a giant lasso, corralling cold air around the pole. Thus the cold snaps. That is weather. That does not change the overall trend of the climate. The world is getting warmer and the impact on the world will be profound.
“The world is getting warmer and the impact on the world will be profound.”
Thanks Chicken Little.
Andrew
such unsupported nonsense, who are you, Mann or Gore in disguise, your gibberish is not supported by people who forecast this weather back in December, and got it right.
NOAA’s bad science got it wrong
Why?
Well the people who got it right used analogue years from the past.
NOAA got it wrong because AGW is factored in.
1984 was worse for a cold snap, so by your logic, climate change made it colder but makes it not as cold as the past?
Baaahahahahahahahahahaha
and no, living standards for humans for the last 200+ years have increased substantially in part due to a warming world. Only mentally ill eco muts see danger
The Ice Bowl was played in Green Bay on December 31, 1967.
waiting for Rob to answer..
weaselling .. I like that word.. very descriptive 🙂
Don’t worry, NOAA will eventually get this winter’s forecast correct. 🙂
Predict, fail, and rationalize away.
You could pretty much attach this mechanism, macro and micro, to the entirety of the climate change fiasco.
The new ‘scientific method.’
That was not a projection, it was a healthy dollop of wishful thinking imo. Confirmation bias
Anthony: I’m posting this without having read the comments, so if this is a duplicate I apologize. There’s a typo in your article—”with” should be “without” in:
“Surprisingly, the much maligned (as being with skill according to most NOAA meteorologists) …”
Read a BBC story, just to tell you what s wrong with it?
Sheer waste of time.
BBC has not accurately reported anything in many years.
BBC news ranks right with huffpo, vox, desmog and other bottom dwellers. Even the National Enquirer is
better.
Just when it appears the BBC could not slip deeper into advocacy nonsense, they dive deeper.
Skip the BBC!
Which does bring up Robbie and his tantrums.
You made a “record cold” claim.
Citing BBC is a warning, that emotive hand waving rules, not rational science or legitimate sources.
Then Robbie whines that ‘we’ should go read the article on BBC and rebut it; apparently point by point.
Nope! Beneath our dignity to stray from science discussions to tabloid nonsense.
Is it cold here in the Eastern USA?
It was, and may well be cold again.
Is it as cold as previous cold episodes in the 1800s’ or the 1930s’?
I doubt it.
I especially doubt that it was colder than other periods in history; e.g. George Washington’s winter at Valley Forge.
For seven plus years, I delivered mail from door to door. There were several similar cold periods during those years.
But then, tabloids never discuss all of the near records, just the new alleged records. Nor does the BBC and their biased sources mention that many of the alleged records are based on very short temperature histories.
Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell, Ryan Maue, etc. have been predicting this winter’s cold and cold snaps for several months now.
Old news for those following Joe and Ryan’s twitters.
There is zero genuine science linking weather to CO2, global warming, whatever.
Climate change has always been in action since Earth’s atmosphere formed.
Freaking out over tiny variances requires ignoring recorded history and science. Cue the BBC and their drama queen articles.
The problem with relying too much on ENSO (like NOAA has done) is that other teleconnections come into play. The brutal NH Winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 occurred during a strong El Nino as well as the Great Pacific Climate Shift. That period was marked by 2 very hot summers followed by brutal winters. Obviously something else was at play.
“FAIL: NOAA’s winter climate outlook claimed ‘warmer than normal’ temperature”
While winter is still far from over, they seem to have got it wrong so far because as usual they fail to take into account the sun. This failure of taking any notice of the sun is the same reason why climate predictions fail. The AMO, ENSO especially rely on solar energy and don’t magically change with CO2 because CO2 has no noticeable effect on them and never will.