Where The Temperature Rules The Sun

I’ve held for a long time that there is a regulatory mechanism in the tropics that keeps the earth’s temperature within very narrow bounds on average (e.g. ± 0.3°C over the 20th Century). This mechanism is the timing and amount of the daily emergence of the cumulus cloud field, and the timing and emergence of thunderstorms.

Now, the current paradigm is that the sun rules the temperature, and our daily experience seems to bear that out. When the amount of sun reaching the surface goes up, the temperature goes up. This has led to the claim that the temperature must perforce follow the forcing in a linear fashion. For those interested in the math, the claim is that changes in temperature are equal to changes in forcing times a constant called the “climate sensitivity”. And much energy has been wasted trying to determine the value of that constant.

Despite hundreds of thousands of hours of both human and computer time dedicated to the quest, here’s the great progress that has been made:

nir shaviv utter stagnation.png

Figure 1. Dr. Nir Shaviv’s comments on the history of estimates of the “climate sensitivity” parameter.

I hold that this stunning lack of progress is undeniable evidence that the underlying paradigm is flawed. As I said above, daily experience shows that the sun rules the temperature … but it turns out that while this is true on land, at sea things are quite different.

To show the difference, I looked at the correlation between sunlight striking the surface, and the temperature. Remember that a positive correlation means that the temperature and the sun are moving in the same direction, as the current paradigm insists. A negative correlation, on the other hand, means that they are going in opposite directions. Here’s a map of the globe showing the correlation between temperature and solar radiation at the surface.

ceres cor surface sun temperature.png

Figure 2. Correlation between the solar radiation at the surface, and the surface temperature. This is calculated on a 1° x 1° gridcell basis.

There are several interesting things about this graph. First, it is easy to see why people have been fooled into thinking that the temperature slavishly follows the forcing. On the land, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, the positive correlation is nearly perfect—when the surface sun increases, the temperature goes up, and vice versa. It leads to the obvious but incorrect conclusion that it is a feature of the whole planet.

But in the tropical ocean, things are quite different. There, we find large areas of negative correlation, where when the sun is increasing the temperature is decreasing, and vice versa.

We have two choices in assigning causation in these areas. Either increasing tropical sunshine at the surface is driving the surface temperature down, which seems highly unlikely. Or, as I said above, increasing tropical temperature leads to increasing clouds, which reduces the amount of sunshine at the surface.

I’m gonna go with Choice B …

There is another interesting aspect of this graphic. We know that the reason that the Earth’s surface temperature is well above that predicted by the Stefan-Boltzmann equation is the poorly-named “greenhouse effect”. How can that be, if the temperature doesn’t follow the forcing as the climate paradigm states?

The answer is that other than in small isolated patches, this phenomenon doesn’t occur where the temperature is less than about 24°C. Below that, as the forcing goes up the temperature goes up as daily experience leads us to expect. So the greenhouse effect is able to warm up the planet … but only to a certain point. Beyond that, things start going the other direction.

Next, it is important to note the size of the phenomenon. A negative correlation between temperature and sunshine occurs over an area where no less than 17% of the sunlight is striking the earth. This is more than enough to serve as a thermoregulatory mechanism.

Finally, it is important to remember that this is not a static phenomenon. As temperatures increase and decrease these areas, the sun is moving in the opposite direction. This keeps the tropical temperature, and thus the global temperature, from getting either too hot or too cold.

My best regards to all. I’m still in the Solomon Islands, you’re welcome to read about my misadventures on my blog.

w.

My Usual Request: When you are commenting please QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS YOU ARE DISCUSSING so we can all understand just what you are talking about.

Further Reading:

The Thermostat Hypothesis 2009-06-14

Abstract: The Thermostat Hypothesis is that tropical clouds and thunderstorms actively regulate the temperature of the earth. This keeps the earth at an equilibrium temperature.

The Details Are In The Devil 2010-12-13

I love thought experiments. They allow us to understand complex systems that don’t fit into the laboratory. They have been an invaluable tool in the scientific inventory for centuries. Here’s my thought experiment for today. Imagine a room. In a room dirt collects, as you might imagine. In my household…

Emergent Climate Phenomena 2013-02-07

In a recent post, I described how the El Nino/La Nina alteration operates as a giant pump. Whenever the Pacific Ocean gets too warm across its surface, the Nino/Nina pump kicks in and removes the warm water from the Pacific, pumping it first west and thence poleward. I also wrote…

Air Conditioning Nairobi, Refrigerating The Planet 2013-03-11

I’ve mentioned before that a thunderstorm functions as a natural refrigeration system. I’d like to explain in a bit more detail what I mean by that. However, let me start by explaining my credentials as regards my knowledge of refrigeration. The simplest explanation of my refrigeration credentials is that I…

 

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Kristian
December 17, 2017 5:05 am

Willis, you state:

(…) daily experience shows that the sun rules the temperature … but it turns out that while this is true on land, at sea things are quite different.

That’s because on land, the surface stays put, while at sea, the surface moves.

Further, you write:

(…) in the tropical ocean (…) we find large areas of negative correlation, where when the sun is increasing the temperature is decreasing, and vice versa.

We have two choices in assigning causation in these areas. Either increasing tropical sunshine at the surface is driving the surface temperature down, which seems highly unlikely. Or, (…) increasing tropical temperature leads to increasing clouds, which reduces the amount of sunshine at the surface.

“Choice B” is definitely part of the answer, but is not the full answer. It’s a ‘chicken-and-egg’ kind of situation, an integrated causation loop. Here’s Trenberth et al. (2002) explaining what happens:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/2000JD000298.pdf

“The negative feedback between SST and surface fluxes can be interpreted as showing the importance of the discharge of heat during El Niño events and of the recharge of heat during La Niña events.Relatively clear skies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific allow solar radiation to enter the ocean, apparently offsetting the below normal SSTs, but the heat is carried away by Ekman drift, ocean currents, and adjustments through ocean Rossby and Kelvin waves, and the heat is stored in the western Pacific tropics. This is not simply a rearrangement of the ocean heat, but also a restoration of heat in the ocean. Similarly, during El Niño the loss of heat into the atmosphere, especially through evaporation, is a discharge of the heat content, and both contribute to the life cycle of ENSO.”
(My emphasis.)

December 17, 2017 6:43 am

Willis said:

“So if I take heat from the surface today and return it to the surface tomorrow, that results in surface heating? On what planet, particularly for a constantly occurring phenomenon?”

Of course it will, provided that new insolation from an external source is continuing throughout at the same rate as before.

That is the same principle as that employed in the radiative theory whereby energy is returned to the surface by DWIR for a net delay in energy throughput.

Delaying the speed of energy throughput when energy in is constant causes a rise in temperature whatever the reason for the delay.

December 17, 2017 7:05 am

Willis asked:

“if back radiation is NOT heating the ocean as you claim, then what is the energy source that keeps it from freezing? ”

The weight of an atmosphere on an ocean surface alters the energy required to cause evaporation from the ocean surface.

With no atmosphere at all the ocean waters would be able to evaporate away to space using internal energy alone.

With an atmosphere the waters need to accumulate more insolation from the sun before they can start a water cycle involving evaporation and rainfall.

The heavier the atmosphere the warmer the oceans need to become in order to initiate a water cycle.

So, what heats the oceans is accumulated solar energy the amount of which is related to atmospheric mass and not DWIR at all.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 19, 2017 1:56 am

There is nothing in your ‘proof’ that is wrong given the initial parameters of an adiabatically isolated single column with parallel sides. That is why I have not quoted from it.
I have told you why those initial parameters are inadequate.
Your ‘proof’ (and that of Robert Brown) is simply an irrelevance.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 4:41 am

Well that is the basis of Robert Brown’s model and the Coombes and Lau analysis. What is different about yours?

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 4:52 am

Willis says this in his ‘proof’:

“But when the temperature of a perfect blackbody planet rises … the surface radiation of that planet must rise as well.
And because the atmosphere is transparent, this means that the planet is radiating to space more energy than it receives. This is an obvious violation of conservation of energy, so any theories proposing such a warming must be incorrect.”

But previously Willis accepted my comment that there is nothing to stop a planet with a surface at 288K radiating to space at 255k whilst conducting into a developing atmosphere sufficient kinetic energy to account for a surface temperature rise of 33k.

Once the atmosphere is in place with constant convective overturning then there is a constant one cycle delay in the loss of that 33k of kinetic energy to space which must yield a surface temperature rise of 33k

Any delay in the rate of radiative energy throughput, however caused, must result in a higher temperature.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 8:19 am

Stephen Wilde December 19, 2017 at 4:52 am
Willis says this in his ‘proof’:

“But when the temperature of a perfect blackbody planet rises … the surface radiation of that planet must rise as well.
And because the atmosphere is transparent, this means that the planet is radiating to space more energy than it receives. This is an obvious violation of conservation of energy, so any theories proposing such a warming must be incorrect.”

But previously Willis accepted my comment that there is nothing to stop a planet with a surface at 288K radiating to space at 255k whilst conducting into a developing atmosphere sufficient kinetic energy to account for a surface temperature rise of 33k.

Actually there is, if the surface is at 288K it will radiate into space as a 288K object if it has a developing atmosphere it will also conduct to the atmosphere. If the atmosphere doesn’t return the same amount of heat to the surface the surface will either cool down or heat up until a steady state is reached.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 8:28 am

Phil,

Kinetic energy is just molecular motion.

The same unit of kinetic motion cannot both release a photon and be conducted away simultaneously. That would be a breach of the first law.

The atmosphere does indeed return to the surface in adiabatic descent the same amount of energy as was removed from the surface in adiabatic ascent.

Trick
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 9:06 am

“The same unit of kinetic motion cannot both release a photon and be conducted away simultaneously.”

Sure they can since they are independant processes. Release a photon and bang into another molecule all at same instant.

Trick
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 9:10 am

“The atmosphere does indeed return to the surface in adiabatic descent..”

Tests show this is not observed in real world convection processes, the high pressure returns laterally to the low pressure areas. This is where surface winds come from Stephen. You really need to observe the tests.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 10:34 am

Trick,

Banging into another molecule and transferring some of its energy will delay the release of a photon. Release of a photon will reduce the energy transferred by collision. You can’t have it both ways without breaching the first law.

Real world convection shows exactly what I say but sure there is a lateral component.
Descending columns of higher pressure air spiral outwards and downwards towards the nearest low pressure.
Rising columns of lower pressure air spiral outwards and upwards towards the nearest high pressure cell.
That is why the wind flow on meteorological synoptic maps actually flows at a slight angle to the line of the isobars.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 11:18 pm

Stephen Wilde December 19, 2017 at 8:28 am
Phil,

Kinetic energy is just molecular motion.

The same unit of kinetic motion cannot both release a photon and be conducted away simultaneously. That would be a breach of the first law.

You are confused, when a molecule that is vibrationally excited emits a photon it has no effect on the translational kinetic energy of the molecule, the molecule can also collide with another molecule and lose kinetic energy. There is no breach of the first law.

At the macro scale a slab of rock will emit thermal radiation depending on its temperature while at the same time conducting heat to its surroundings, if the heat lost exceeds the heat input then the rock will cool down until a steady state is reached. It’s a standard heat transfer analysis, you make a control volume and balance all the inputs and outputs.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 11:29 pm

Stephen Wilde December 19, 2017 at 10:34 am
Real world convection shows exactly what I say but sure there is a lateral component.
Descending columns of higher pressure air spiral outwards and downwards towards the nearest low pressure.
Rising columns of lower pressure air spiral outwards and upwards towards the nearest high pressure cell.
That is why the wind flow on meteorological synoptic maps actually flows at a slight angle to the line of the isobars.

You’re sure it’s not the interplay of friction and the Coriolis force which causes the angle to be greatest near the surface and reduce as you go further from the surface?

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 20, 2017 1:37 am

Phil said:

“when a molecule that is vibrationally excited emits a photon it has no effect on the translational kinetic energy of the molecule, the molecule can also collide with another molecule and lose kinetic energy. There is no breach of the first law.”

So you think that the energy used in the emission of the photon can still be used again in a collisional exchange?

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 20, 2017 6:24 am

Willis Eschenbach December 20, 2017 at 1:51 am
Stephen Wilde December 20, 2017 at 1:37 am Edit

Phil said:

“when a molecule that is vibrationally excited emits a photon it has no effect on the translational kinetic energy of the molecule, the molecule can also collide with another molecule and lose kinetic energy. There is no breach of the first law.”

So you think that the energy used in the emission of the photon can still be used again in a collisional exchange?

Perhaps I missed something, but I don’t read what Phil said that way at all.

What I think he said is that there are two kinds of energy in a vibrationally excited CO2 molecule—the kinetic energy of it zooming around, and the energy in the vibration. Now when that CO2 molecule emits a photon, the vibrational energy is lost … but the kinetic energy is unchanged. Which to me is quite true.

Yes that’s exactly right Willis.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 20, 2017 1:31 am

Of course it is that interplay which combines vertical and lateral transport but that doesn’t falsify the premise that high pressure air descends and low pressure air ascends all around the globe such that at any given moment half is rising and half is falling.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 20, 2017 9:28 am

The total energy of a molecule is comprised of both types of motion. Collisions will transfer BOTH the zooming about type AND the vibrational type.
So, collisions will delay the emission of photons.
Conduction via collisions will thereby reduce radiation to space until convective cycle 1 concludes with the return of KE to the surface in descent.
Radiation from the vibrational mode alone will still reduce conduction via collisions since both modes are utilised to transfer energy via collisions.
So, your proposition is invalid.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 20, 2017 9:46 pm

Stephen Wilde December 20, 2017 at 9:28 am
The total energy of a molecule is comprised of both types of motion. Collisions will transfer BOTH the zooming about type AND the vibrational type.
So, collisions will delay the emission of photons.

No, some collisions can remove vibrational energy, they don’t delay the emission of photons.

Conduction via collisions will thereby reduce radiation to space until convective cycle 1 concludes with the return of KE to the surface in descent.

This is a complete non sequitor

Radiation from the vibrational mode alone will still reduce conduction via collisions since both modes are utilised to transfer energy via collisions.

This makes no sense, both emission and conduction take place according to the temperature if the total of the losses exceeds the input the temperature goes down, and vice versa

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 19, 2017 8:24 am

Stephen Wilde December 2, 2017 at 9:48 am

Willis:

“i) Kinetic energy at the surface can either be conducted away or radiated away. Both cannot occur simultaneously. If one rises the other drops. So, if you have kinetic energy sufficient to produce a temperature of 288k as per the Earth’s measured surface temperature there is no physics that prevents 255k radiating to space and the other 33k being conducted to the atmosphere.”

OK …

A C Osborn
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 19, 2017 8:52 am

The Hubris of Mr Eshenbach knows no bounds.
I lost count of how many commenters on his so called “Proof” post showed where he was wrong.
In fact the majority of them agreed whole heartedly with the very person he is slagging off here.
But of course Mr Wilde and all those other posters are completely wrong.
When is a “Proof” not a proof, well according to the IPCC, when the majority disagree with the initial assumptions and the assumptions of the proof itself. ie Consensus
Should we do a count of how many Commenters agreed and how many disagreed to see which side had the concensus?

A C Osborn
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 19, 2017 9:15 am

So based on the Comments on your so called proof which you quote throughout this post the “Peer Review” says failed it.
The Proof should therefore be withdrawn.
But don’t let that stop you quoting it.
Just like the Steel Greenhouse Fantasy and the really pathetic Light Bulb in a Glass post or Phil’s hold a foil to your face comment to demonstrate Direct Back Radiation, it is all happening in your world but not in the real one.
We do not need to disprove your “Proof”, it has already been done on the original post, you just don’t accept it, exactly as you do not accept when posters here disagree with you and point out where you are wrong.

Reply to  A C Osborn
December 19, 2017 11:04 am

Hi AC.

Prompted by you I took a look at the responses to Willis’s so called ‘proof’ back in 2012 and found it hilarious that so many back then were telling him much the same as I have tried to tell him here yet his eyes remain tight shut.

Willis, Phil and Trick contend one or more each of the following:

i) That kinetic energy can do work to effect two independent functions simultaneously or be in two places at once thereby breaching the first law.

ii) That delay in radiative energy through a system as a result of conduction and convection cannot cause a rise in system temperature.

iii) That there is no significant adiabatic process going on in an atmosphere.

iv) That air that goes up in thermals never comes down again.

And all those contortions are necessary because they refuse to adapt the radiative energy budget to accommodate non radiative energy transfers.

Paul Bahlin
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
December 19, 2017 11:25 am

Stephen says…

“And all those contortions are necessary because they [Willis et al] refuse to adapt the radiative energy budget to accommodate non radiative energy transfers.”

Perhaps because all those non radiative energy transfers are incapable of changing the temperature one iota unless their transport effects the radiation effectiveness of the syestem.

Reply to  A C Osborn
December 19, 2017 11:31 am

Paul,

They obviously do adversely affect the radiative effectiveness during the first atmospheric convective cycle until the surface temperature rises far enough above S-B to enable radiation to space to match radiation in from space again whilst retaining enough additional molecular motion at the surface to keep convective overturning running and hold the atmosphere in hydrostatic equilibrium.

Maybe you should have a look at the responses to Willis’s 2012 post which he claims as a ‘proof’. He has been told what he got wrong repeatedly then and over the years since.

Reply to  A C Osborn
December 20, 2017 6:39 am

Stephen Wilde December 19, 2017 at 11:04 am

Willis, Phil and Trick contend one or more each of the following:

i) That kinetic energy can do work to effect two independent functions simultaneously or be in two places at once thereby breaching the first law.

ii) That delay in radiative energy through a system as a result of conduction and convection cannot cause a rise in system temperature.

iii) That there is no significant adiabatic process going on in an atmosphere.

iv) That air that goes up in thermals never comes down again.

To the best of my knowledge I have not ‘contended’ any of these, I’ll make Willis’s request: please QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS YOU ARE DISCUSSING.

And all those contortions are necessary because they refuse to adapt the radiative energy budget to accommodate non radiative energy transfers.

No, it’s necessary to do proper heat transfer analysis, not the way you attempt to do it.

December 19, 2017 10:31 am

A C Osborn December 18, 2017 at 10:09 am
As to foil in front of my face.
I have already established the correct interpretation for that.
Unfortunately your interpretation is bogus.

It is not heating my face by back radiation to my hotter face.

Really if it’s Al foil it has 95% reflectivity so it will return 95% of the emission from your face and only absorb 5% of it. Your mechanism might work if you used black paper instead, do you see the same warming then?

First of all it is blocking the amount of air my face can radiate to and then It is using it’s own radiation as it heats from my face and Conduction to heat the colder air between it and my face which makes my face feel warmer as the air around it is warmer.

Check out Kirchoff’s Laws.

A C Osborn
Reply to  Phil.
December 19, 2017 4:46 pm

This is the last time I am going to bother interacting with you.
I will keep it to words of one syllable so you understand.
It
Does
Not
Work.
I tested it, I made measurements, foil warms the air, which changes the environment of the object.
Use a fan to move the air between the object and the foil to prevent it warming.
NO HEATING OF THE OBJECT, ONLY COOLING.
GOODBYE AND STUFF YOUR KIRCHOFF’S LAW UP YOUR OROFICE as Mr Eschenbach would say.

Reply to  A C Osborn
December 19, 2017 11:00 pm

Oh
Yes
It
Does

Paul Bahlin
December 19, 2017 1:47 pm

There are some WUWT topics that get me really twitchy about language. This is one of them. While i agree whole heartedly with the premise here, the comments leave me wanting much more than what squeeks out.

Apart from the off topic diversions, which are many times just indecipherable word salad, there are serious commenters who, innocently, use language which is so imprecise as to just muddy the waters. I would even submit for debate, that this imprecision is often the jumping off point for some of the more raggedy word salad comments.

Here is an example….

Many, many people comment that convection and evaporation cool ‘the surface’ but that is only true if we all have prior agreement on what ‘the surface’ is. We have no such agreement. So for me, i read such a comment and proclaim “no it does not”. Why? Well for me, ‘the surface’ means the entire planet’s surface.

Convection and evaporation are net zero energy exchanges taken over the entire planet.
So it would be much more correct to say that the convection and evaporation of a tropical squall line cools the portion of the surface under it. It’s a perfectly true observation as far as it goes, but it just seems to get out ahead of the rest of the (far more important and difficult) story as people run with it alone.

Now, of course i realize that most people who make the imprecise point are fully aware of that and are doing shorthand. But when you read carefully, the responses to such statements, you come away with the feeling that there are just as many who don’t fully grasp this concept. Especially, some of the world salad commenters who begin to regurtiate the point as complete repudiation of 100 years of known and accepted thermo.

I would even go so far as to say this challenge is what makes many threads drift off into babble.

I would love to see this topic extend into a meaningful discussion of how Willis’ theory DOES lead to cooling of the ENTIRE surface by virtue of the transport mechanism’s (convection, radiation) ability to impact the radiation regime through albedo changes and opportunities for increased outbound (out of the system) radiation. That’s what cools ‘the surface’!

It’s not the wagons that move the freight. It’s the horses!

Paul Bahlin
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 19, 2017 5:02 pm

First off, you’re reading way more into this than the point of my comment, which is that language gets us into trouble. This exchange is a pretty good example of how easy that is.

My science point is is that transport (convection, rain, evaporation) doesn’t cool anything (at the planetary level) unless it upsets the radiation regime, somehow.

My language point is that the radiation parameters of your hypothesis, while crucial, are barely discussed. Not by you, but by readers who hop on transport mechanics to argue that you don’t need radiation to explain surface temperature.

Go back and read comments that say conduction, or convection, or evaporation cools ‘the surface. I’m not convinced that all those comments are made by people that think there is a second act to those transport/transform mechanisms. I’m also not sure that when they say surface, they are talking about the surface under some weather, or the entire surface.

The distinction is seldom if ever made. It is assumed a lot and i would wager that there are many different assumptions in play.

Paul Bahlin
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 19, 2017 3:33 pm

I probably was guilty of the same imprecise language. My intent was that they are net zero energy exchange absent radiation. When the discussion drifts into GHG atmosphere, for example.

What happens to the radiation regime is precisely the interesting point that gets swept aside while the comments home in on convection and evaporation micro details like the lapse rate of a silver wire, for example.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 20, 2017 6:49 am

Mr. Eschenbach: Okay, I’ll do your thought experiment. It’s really not too relevant to my theory, but I’ll do it if you’ll then do mine. I’ll preface my answer, though, with the observation that what I’m asking readers to consider is whether what they think they know of Fourier’s Law (which, remember, is heat flow down a temperature gradient) is completely consistent with what they know about the ballistic motion of an ideal-gas molecule in a gas column at equilibrium subject to gravity.

Now, your thought experiment. You say, “Ceteris paribus, will the temperature of the two sides ever equalize?” Actually, cetera aren’t paria in the situation in which my theory comes into play. Still, your thought experiment, your conditions.

Yes, I believe the temperatures at the silver bodies’ erstwhile-different-temperature ends will equalize. But—and here’s an interesting point—Fourier’s Law actually says they won’t. Not completely. If you solve the partial differential equation that Fourier inflicts upon you, you conclude that temperature difference will decay ever more slowly as the temperature difference decreases, so the difference never exactly reaches zero.

Yet you and I agree that the temperatures will equalize. Here’s what we don’t mean. Let’s say you precisely bisect the silver barbell at the handle into precisely equal-heat-capacity halves. If you could instantaneously measure heat energy in each half to infinite precision, do we mean that your heat-energy measurements would be exactly the same? No. Not exactly. Even at equilibrium the random energy transfers among molecules would make one of the halves ever so slightly hotter than the other. On the other hand, repeating the measurement might instead find the difference reversed. If you do the measurements repeatedly, you will almost always find differences, but some will be opposite the others.

Still, we say the two ends’ temperatures equalize. What we mean is that zero is the average value approached as the number of measurements gets large. Depending on how close to zero you want to find the average to be, though, the number of measurements you’d need to get there repeatably could be large indeed. If the precision to which you want to find zero is small enough with respect to the standard deviation of those individual-measurement differences, reliably finding an average close enough to zero may take more than a lifetime.

Now, as I said, my theory concerns a case in which cetera aren’t paria: there’s a gravitational field with respect to which temperature measurements occur at different altitudes. But what I’m saying that the tiny equilibrium lapse rate I claim gravity would impose upon an ideal gas would be so small with respect to the random variance that detecting it reliably would similarly be time prohibitive.

Okay, so now I’ve done your experiment. How about you do mine? Mine’s basically Dr. Brown’s without the silver wire, except we’ll make the column’s ceiling altitude exceed the molecules’ altitude limit, which is the ratio that the total gas-column (potential + kinetic) energy bears to the least-massive molecule’s weight.

Here’s the experiment. Take whatever time is required (i.e., presumably forever, but this is a thought experiment, so you can do it) to make a repeatable infinite-precision mean-molecular-kinetic-energy measurement of whatever molecules are found in a narrow altitude range that includes that maximum height we mentioned. (A molecule can reach that maximum only in those insanely unlikely but still possible cases in which all the other molecules sit at rest on the enclosure floor.)

Since we’re talking about equilibrium—saying that heat has stopped flowing—Fourier’s Law seems to say such an average measurement at that altitude would be the same as it would be everywhere else: total system kinetic energy (maybe 3/5 the total system energy for a monatomic ideal gas in three dimensions) divided by the number of molecules.

Given that the system’s entire total energy when a molecule reaches that altitude is soaked up by that molecule’s potential energy, though, wouldn’t your knowledge of ballistic motion tell you the average kinetic-energy value at that altitude would be near zero instead? Doesn’t the above interpretation of Fourier’s Law violate conservation of energy? Who you gonna believe, Joe Fourier or your lying concept of ballistic molecular motion and energy conservation?

Well, I know what I say. I say the measurement at that altitude would be near zero. I also say a measurement at zero altitude would be (just a skosh above) what Fourier says, so the lapse rate would be the Fourier equilibrium temperature divided by the molecules’ altitude limit. The four graphs I supplied upthread illustrate this. And the record length (a simulated week and a half) I needed repeatably to generate the last three graphs illustrates that measuring my claimed lapse rate would take too long as a practical matter.

Okay, your mind is rebelling. It seizes upon the fact that in the case of our atmosphere a molecule’s reaching the altitude limit is too improbable to occur before the universe ends. Or that the gravitational uniformity I’ve assumed isn’t even close on that distance scale. Or that I haven’t taken quantum mechanics into account. All those things are true, as are others.

But do those distinctions really make a fundamental difference? If you’re honest, doesn’t this thought experiment make you open to reconsidering how you look at Fourier’s Law?

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 21, 2017 6:44 am

That’s your objection to Dr. Brown’s proof? That’s just Zeno’s paradox all over again.

A silly Zeno’s-paradox statement was precisely the gambit I expected you to adopt if you were interested in a high-school-level debate instead of an adult conversation about the implications of a finite gas’s finite energy content. You seem to have lived down to my expectations.

Still, maybe you honestly don’t comprehend the difference between (1) increasingly small quantities in increasingly short time intervals as in Zeno’s paradox and (2) the increasingly small quantities in same-length time intervals that Fourier’s Law dictates.

Maybe you honestly did confuse my doing your thought experiment with my objection to Dr. Brown’s proof—even though I had said explicitly of your thought experiment that “It’s really not too relevant to my theory,” and even though I set forth my own, different thought experiment to demonstrate my objection. My objection wasn’t that a blind application of Fourier’s Law would prevent equilibrium from ever being reached but that at equilibrium in a gravitational field it would violate energy conservation.

You just argued successfully that Fourier’s Law says that heat NEVER stops flowing, and then you say it does. I’m lost again.

Maybe you honestly didn’t see the distinction, namely, that your thought experiment assumed starting in a non-equilibrium state, whereas mine assumed equilibrium from the beginning. Maybe you honestly did misunderstand me to say—as I did not—that Fourier’s Law requires heat to start flowing in a system that begins at equilibrium. In short, maybe your logic capability really is so feeble that you honestly believe what you write.

I’m not inclined to think so, but maybe my professional experience slants my opinion. Over my legal career I conducted hundreds—maybe over a thousand—in-depth technical discussions, mostly with the principals or smarter employees of high-tech companies. Often large sums of money were at stake, and sometimes the life of a company, so those guys tended to be serious and to want to get it right.

My opinion based on experience with guys like that is that almost anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of physics would have been able to grasp the fact that energy conservation would prevent the mean molecular kinetic energy near the molecular altitude limit from being anywhere near that of the gas column as a whole, which is near what would prevail at altitude zero. And most would see that the ratio borne to the molecular altitude limit by the difference between the resultant near-zero temperature at high-altitude and the higher, altitude-zero temperature is a non-zero (albeit exceedingly small) lapse rate.

That type of experience is what inclines me to think you really do understand my discussion’s implications but dishonestly continue to argue because you’ve based so many comments on Dr. Brown’s proof over the years and were intemperate in defending it upthread. As I say, though, I may be judging you too harshly; my experience is somewhat skewed, and there’s certainly evidence in support of the proposition that your math and logic abilities truly are as limited as this thread makes them appear.

In either case, it’s evident that hope triumphed over experience when I imagined that this time you might finally prove to be a worthy interlocutor. So I see no worthwhile purpose that continuing this discussion would serve.

December 20, 2017 6:04 am

@Willis Eschenbach
Willis, in this comment:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/24/can-a-cold-object-warm-a-hot-object/#comment-2686091
I asked your opinion about RADIATIVE balance temperatures. No answer before the comments were closed.
Still interested in your opinion so I’ll rephrase a bit:
– Effective temperature Earth (albedo 0.30) is ~255K
– Effective temperature moon (albedo 0.11) is ~270K
– Actual average temperature moon according Diviner project ~197K.
Imo realistic radiative balance temperature for a spherical blackbody at our distance from the sun ~167K.

What ‘blackbody’ temperature for the moon do you agree with?
If 270K, then why is the actual average temperature on the moon so much lower?
If ~167K then what causes the average temperature on Earth to be more than 120K higher?

Reply to  Ben Wouters
December 20, 2017 8:09 am

The slow rotation of the moon causes the local temperatures to be in near equilibrium with the solar flux. Also because of the long night the night temperature is almost constant determined by the heat retention properties of the regolith. This would be a source of differences between the two bodies.comment image
Fig. 8. (a) Zonal mean hourly daytime bolometric temperatures and (b) standard deviation. (c) Zonal mean hourly nighttime bolometric temperatures and (b) standard deviation. Higher nighttime temperatures and standard deviations at latitudes above ±80° in (c-d) result from the occurrence of low-angle illumination of surfaces, especially during polar summers. Nighttime is defined here by local time, not sun elevation.

Reply to  Phil.
December 21, 2017 12:47 am

Phil. December 20, 2017 at 8:09 am
Thanks for the plots.
I like the one on this Diviner page:
https://www.diviner.ucla.edu/science
Clearly shows the temperature fluctuations over a whole year. Especially the 89Lat one is interesting.

Reply to  Phil.
December 21, 2017 1:46 am
A C Osborn
Reply to  Phil.
December 21, 2017 6:42 am

Sorry, I chose the wrong reply position.
Ben, that second paper is fascinating, however I do have a couple of questions.
The idea that the Surface Radiation is a reflection of the temperature at the Centre of an Object sounds OK for a homogeneous object, but for something like the Earth it makes absolutely no sense what so ever.
The surface can be at +10C and 10 ft down -10C and a 70 miles further down 1000s of degrees.
The second question is regarding the relevance of comparing the Total Surface of the Moon to just 30% of the Earth and totally ignoring the Water, which in no way has a Surface reperesenting the centre of the Earth or for that matter the solid surface or even the bottom of the Water.
The Science being used seems to defy pure logic.
I understand they are trying to establish what temp the Earth would be without an Atmophere, but they are also assuming without water, which then does not seem to be accounted for in any of the real world calculations.

Reply to  Phil.
December 21, 2017 3:14 pm

A C Osborn December 21, 2017 at 6:42 am
Not clear to me what your first question is. Pse clarify a bit.

Water is imo indeed the deciding difference between the moon and the earth. On Earth we have no RADIATIVE balance anywhere. We DO have a balanced ENERGY budget (more or less).
I think it is possible to explain the very high average temperature on earth AND have a balanced energy budget.

Reply to  Phil.
December 21, 2017 8:29 pm

A C Osborn December 21, 2017 at 6:42 am
Sorry, I chose the wrong reply position.
Ben, that second paper is fascinating, however I do have a couple of questions.
The idea that the Surface Radiation is a reflection of the temperature at the Centre of an Object sounds OK for a homogeneous object, but for something like the Earth it makes absolutely no sense what so ever.

Where do you find this?

A C Osborn
Reply to  Phil.
December 22, 2017 11:14 am

Ben, it stems from this statement.
“Planck’s The Theory of Heat Radiation, an English translation of the second edition of which (1913) was published by Dover
For example, Planck recognized that ‘the surface of a body never emits rays, but rather it allows parts of the rays coming from the interior to pass through.”

Reply to  Phil.
December 23, 2017 8:27 am

A C Osborn December 22, 2017 at 11:14 am

For example, Planck recognized that ‘the surface of a body never emits rays, but rather it allows parts of the rays coming from the interior to pass through.

Don’t know what Planck was thinking about, perhaps neutrinos.
To me the flux through the crust is simple conduction (assuming no heat generation IN the crust).comment image
The flux through the continental crust is ~65 mW/m^2.
Without sun, atmosphere and oceans a temperature of ~40K enables the surface to radiate this amount of energy directly to space and a stable situation can exist.
Switch on the sun and you introduce a second energy source, working against the outward flux.
The crust will warm up from both sides. Since the interior temperature is much higher than the solar generated temperature once the crust is heated up sufficiently the geothermal flux will start to flow again, but now with a must warmer crust.
http://sites.sinauer.com/bloom/images/Bloom_WT_0901.jpg
Temperature around 10m is ~equal to the average surface temperature. Going further down the temperature increases with ~ 25K/km initially.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 21, 2017 1:08 am

Willis Eschenbach December 20, 2017 at 12:23 pm
From the linked post:

As a result, the Earth’s albedo is about 0.30, while the Moon’s albedo is only about 0.11. So the moon should be absorbing more energy than the Earth. And as a result, the surface of the moon should be just below the freezing temperature of water. But it’s not, it’s much colder.

So you’re using ~270K as the starting point for your analysis. This assumes solar radiation is spread evenly around an entire planet. Is not happening in real life. In our solar system with only one sun planets are illuminated on one side only. So a better calculation gives ~331K radiative balance temperature for the dayside and ~3K for the night side resulting in ~167K average surface temperature.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/24/can-a-cold-object-warm-a-hot-object/#comment-2686091

On the actual moon daytime temps are close to radiative balance temperatures. The night time temps are much higher than 3K, most probably due to some geothermal flux plus heat carried over from the day side.
This way the temperatures on the moon are as expected.
Dr Brown agrees with this in his post:

Start with a nonrotating superconducting sphere, zero albedo, unit emissivity, perfect blackbody radiation from each point on the sphere. What’s the mean temperature?

Now make the non-rotating sphere perfectly non-conducting, so that every part of the surface has to be in radiative balance. What’s the average temperature now? This is a better model for the moon than the former, surely, although still not good enough. Let’s improve it.

So for Earth the question is:
why is the average surface temperature at least 90K higher than the moons, or over 120K above a the simple blackbody calculation.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 21, 2017 2:53 pm

Willis Eschenbach December 21, 2017 at 2:15 am

As Dr. Brown pointed out, the temperature of the earth in the absence of GHGs is not a simple problem … so I’m not sure where you are getting those numbers

The 90K is just the difference between the avg earth surface temp (~290K) and the avg lunar surface temp (~197K)
Radiative balance with incoming solar means that a surface has such a temperature that it radiates as much energy as it receives and has stabilized at that temperature. A spherical blackbody at our distance of the sun would have a RADIATIVE balance temperature of ~167K, not the 255K for Earth or the 270K for the moon.

the answer to your underlying question, why is the earth as warm as we find it, is the poorly-named “greenhouse effect

I don’t think our low density, low temperature, low heat storage capacity atmosphere is capable of INCREASING the temperature of the deep oceans, the soil to significant depth etc.
A much more realistic explanation is available. The role of the atmosphere is just to reduce the energy loss to space.
This DOES mean that after removing the atmosphere, the temperatures will drop, but no temperature INCREASING effect.

A C Osborn
Reply to  Ben Wouters
December 21, 2017 6:41 am

Ben, that second paper is fascinating, however I do have a couple of questions.
The idea that the Surface Radiation is a reflection of the temperature at the Centre of an Object sounds OK for a homogeneous object, but for something like the Earth it makes absolutely no sense what so ever.
The surface can be at +10C and 10 ft down -10C and a 70 miles further down 1000s of degrees.
The second question is regarding the relevance of comparing the Total Surface of the Moon to just 30% of the Earth and totally ignoring the Water, which in no way has a Surface reperesenting the centre of the Earth or for that matter the solid surface or even the bottom of the Water.
The Science being used seems to defy pure logic.
I understand they are trying to establish what temp the Earth would be without an Atmophere, but they are also assuming without water, which then does not seem to be accounted for in any of the real world calculations.

December 20, 2017 6:22 am

@Willis Eschenbach
Willis, in this thread I commented:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/14/where-the-temperature-rules-the-sun/comment-page-1/#comment-2694670
No reaction sofar. It seems you actually believe that CB’s near the equator drive the Hadley circulation.
If so, do they “suck in” the trade winds over hundreds if not thousands of kilometres?
Do they create outflow winds near the tropopause poleward at increasing speeds, eventually creating the Subtropical jetstream?
What causes the band of surface high pressure areas near 30 N/S, that is an integral part of the Hadley circulation?

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 21, 2017 1:41 am

Willis Eschenbach December 20, 2017 at 12:31 pm

For the thunderstorm to rise to their max altitude and then pump air from the surface to the upper troposphere, something’s gotta give. The air above them is forced into horizontal movement, displaced by the swiftly rising columns of air inside the Cb towers.

I can tell from personal experience that outside the anvil the wind around a Cb doesn’t differ from the prevailing wind. A Cb is mostly a self contained system, where rising and falling air stay (mostly0 within its boundaries.
see eg http://www.tornadochaser.net/capeclass.html
especially page 2.

The mechanism for the Hadley cells and other similar circulations is well known and doesn’t require Cb’s.
The process is very similar to the sea breeze mechanism, so lets start there.
Start in the early morning with equal temperature and pressure over land and sea, so no wind at all.
The sun warms the land faster than the sea, so the air over land expands, while the surface pressure remains the same initially. Due to the expansion the pressure at eg 1 or 2 km becomes higher than the equivalent pressure over sea, so air begins to flow from land to sea AT ALTITUDE.
This creates lower surface pressure over land and higher surface pressure over the sea.
Now the surface wind begins to blow from the sea towards the land.
Over land the air is rising and over sea sinking to complete the cycle.

Same for the Hadley cells. Hot surface near the tropics, cold surface near the poles.
But now the Coriolis effect kicks in turning the pole-ward flow at altitude towards the east and creates the subtropical jet around 30 N/S. Backflow near the surface are the Tradewinds

ps the Bejan link doesn’t work.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
December 21, 2017 3:04 pm

Willis Eschenbach December 21, 2017 at 2:23 am

However, I find it very hard to believe that the thunderstorms have little to no effect on the Hadley cells, which is what I think you’re saying.

I’m afraid you’ll have to get used to that idea 😉
see
http://www.ux1.eiu.edu/~cfjps/1400/jetstream.jpg
The subtropical jet is at the first latitude where the pressure gradient force and the Coriolis effect balance. Polar jet is another example. Nothing a few Cb’s can do to influence this powerful system. Actually the pole ward flowing air sinks slowly and creates the Trade wind inversion that limits or even prevents convection.

Paul Bahlin
December 23, 2017 6:01 am

“”Mathematics aren’t wrong, those who mis-apply them get wrong answers.”

And those who don’t use them to propose new science probably need to lay off the Jack.