Added: 11/11 8:30AM PST See update below. Records were set over the past two days at Central Park, but the 144 Year old record still stands.
Dr. Ryan Maue has been tracking the forecasts for the Northeast, and the result is…ah, chilling. Maue says the “polar vortex” is responsible for the exceptionally cold and dry air invading the Northeast USA.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/929224013083238401
He goes on to say that the all time record for New York City of 22°F forecast by morning in NYC would be coldest, earliest temperature on record.
The previous earliest record of reaching 22°F was Nov 13, 1873. The 21°F expected for NYC would be the coldest in 144 years. Further up Long Island, temperatures are expected in the teens.
A record low temperature that lasted 103 years has already been set in Central Park according to the National Weather Service:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
0245 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 27 SET IN 1914.
Source: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=okx
The rest of New York State will be even colder by morning, with temperatures in the teens to hovering near zero.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/929221133689393152
UPDATE: here below is what NWS New York said this morning. Overnight winds kept temperatures from falling to record lows. I’ve updated the title from “144 year earliest cold record for New York City to be broken – new 103 year record low already set” to “103 year record cold low for New York City set” to be accurate going forward.
Two records for cold were broken in the last two days.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
0801 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY
THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 28 LAST SET IN 1933.
Record low temperatures were set at 5 of our 6 climate sites this morning. Temperatures will only rise into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/queX7mE4fY
— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) November 11, 2017
Ssssssh!
This air was so much colder than the ocean, which “remembers” the summer, that the water was “steaming” like a cup of tea this morning. Also the Atlantic was so “hot” today that islands in the distance seemed to float over the shimmer of a mirage, like you see shimmering over a hot highway in July.
Everything is relative. The Atlantic really wasn’t hot as a summer highway; it was cool, but the air was bleeping FRIGID!
https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2017/11/11/local-view-cold-comfort/
A great success for green energy! All the wind turbines installed in the ocean are finally having some effect. The propellers are blowing wind over the water, cooling the surface, basic high school physics. Al Gore was right all along.
Err, that would be the polar vortex, the movement of which, they can not model too well?
You mean the so called declining numbers of polar bears racing around in ever decreasing circles, desperate to find breathing space which is being massively reduced due to their increasing over-population?
I don’t think this polar bear is racing around anything!
They cannot model ENSO either. Clueless!
This just shows how much short term variability there is in the climate and why we shouldn’t get excited about single “record” events like hot days or cold days. Taking that reasoning a little further along, a swing of one or two degrees over a century in the average temperature is to be expected and is certainly not abnormal. Our human lifespan and perspective is far too short. The earth is billions of years old. We’re here for the blink of an eye.
Trebla,
You nailed it.
Back in the days when programmes presented by David Attenborough were informative and not full of global warming lies, he presented Life On Earth. At the start he was in a desert somewhere with a row of burning braziers stretching into the distance. They were scaled at billions of years to indicate how long Earth has existed. Standing at the last brazier he said that our presence amounted to only a number of inches within that last brazier.
So then TomO, when CO2 doubles, the ‘models’ tell us that Arctic Amplification causes it to warm 3x as fast so that a polar vortex will become like a sirocco from Morocco! Maybe Brittney Spears is the model they are using for this. Tom, it is your duty as an independent person to overcome the modern education they shackled you with and think for yourself. The teachers, professors, CNN, the DNC, aren’t always right. Sound bytes aren’t enough. The NYT, the Atlantic and even American Progress have made a mistake or two. Journalists and politicians (lawyers) aren’t good sources. The parrots aren’t a he heroes in this crazy world. Think for yourself even if you come up wrong now and again.
You do come to WUWT at least which gives you other perspectives, which makes you head and shoulders above most of your fellows. Don’t waste all the opportunity by clinging to catechisms.
Arctic amplification is for real, and that is one thing the climate models got right. The part of the northern hemisphere with variable snow/ice coverage has greater temperature change than the world as a whole does due to surface albedo positive feedback. Check global maps of almost any time in the past decade of monthly or better still yearly global temperature anomalies. Arctic amplification would stop if the Arctic gets warm enough to make it free of ice and snow whenever wherever the sun shines in the Arctic, or if it and near-Arctic high latitudes get covered year-round with ice and snow, and that would shift the high positive feedback to the middle and some subtropical latitudes in the northern hemisphere. (Note the high climate instability that was common during ice age glaciations due to variable snow/ice coverage at latitudes that get more sunlight than the Arctic does.)
Please supply the data that demonstrates this, the posters should not have to do so themselves.
You have made an assertion which makes no sense whatsoever, the angle of incidence of Sunlight when the Ice is at it’s higher extents is so low that it would not matter if it was Ice or Water.
So please prove it.
Yo meant “the movement of which they cannot CONTROL”, didn’t you?
No!
Their models are a tragedy of incompetence. They have all the predictive value of a homogenized astrology reading. Unphysical, unscientific, codified guesswork, approximation, and data manipulations. You might as well read tea-leaves! Anyone here who works on these nonsensical models should be ashamed. Ashamed for taking money under false pretenses.
tom0mason – right on with the association of Climate Science and Astrology. Both use models, both claim model success whatever happens.
Yes, but record cold is just *weather*, while any warm event, drought, flood, storm, wind, fire, are all because of global warming.
Actually record cold is also a symptom of global warming…..
And the pause is also a symptom of climate change.
And so are mild winters. It’s “extreme” weather, you know!
So still true when the temperature doubles? Gee Jimmy, no honest person can be that devout. Say it slowly with sincerity and I think you will get what I mean. I think you will smile.
Only CO2 can cause a 144-year record to be broken! Proof of CAGW! /sarc
it won’t last. previous record low will need to be adjusted downwards to satisfy. the. computer models.
The record lows and highs that you see in weather reports are unadjusted. For example, the daily climate reports at http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx
such as the one for Central Park NY for November 10th. It says the low temperature of 24 degrees F breaks the previous record of 28 set in 1933 and 1926. That 28 degrees F is raw data from a thermometer. The adjustments that are used for global temperature determinations are by a fraction of a degree, and done only in processes for determining climate change.
Yes but they predicted more cold weather, except when global warming causes more warm weather…
This is caused by the same Australian coal mines who killed off all the polar bears on the Great Barrier Reef
& drowned the penguins (that’s why penguins moved from Manhattan to Antarctica).
Not all of them
http://vps.templar.co.uk/Cape%20Town/DSC_1023.JPG
Is it true some NY nuns were kidnapped by the local platoon of the Green Brigade in the mistaken belief they were penguins needing saving from extinction?
Yes, that is why penguins live only in the southern hemisphere!!
The only exception being, Pittsburgh, PA.
“Yes, that is why penguins live only in the southern hemisphere!!” … On closer checking, you’ll find that some penguins do live in the Northern Hemisphere, on one or more of the Galapagos Islands.
Not all species of penguins live where it is cold year round. The chinstrap penguin lives on the Antarctica Peninsula, nearby parts of South America and nearby islands. Other penguin species live in even warmer parts of the southern hemisphere. There is the Galapagos penguin, which lives on the equatorial Galapagos islands.
Yet another extreme weather event.
Exactly as predicted by the climate modelers.
When will you sceptics ever learn?
Sarc
Cold weather occurred.
Gather round for the “sceptic” circle jerk.
Global warming alarmists say “buy thermal underwear futures”.
I floated the idea a couple of years ago of using warm weather and cold weather clothing sales as a proxy for what people are feeling in the world of changing climate.
Unfortunately it was a nonstarter, UN-IPCC and it’s Soros affiliated universities wouldn’t fund it.
Polar vortex https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere
I was think we all know its due to a weather pattern but the act of giving this one a particular name (that does predate the warming alarmism) to make it appear well understood and predicted by AGW is a bit too much.
This is obviously “rotten” coldness.
This is an interesting statistic. But your reporting does differ from how you report a record high temperature. When that happens you always seem to doubt its validity by pointing out it has happened previously. It will be interesting to see the average temperature over the year in that region to see if this reflects on climatic issues as opposed to weather.
You mean like record temperatures in California, that only apply to that particular day?
No, there is no difference. And how does a regional average temperature reflect global changes in climate? And why a year?
Because year on year statistics gives a better idea of trend than single events.
A record high temperature somewhere seems to always be linked in the media to “global warming/climate change” with an implied “See what’s happening, it is gonna get worse”, while a record low temperature somewhere is simply a local weather report.
If you haven’t noticed that, Gareth, then you aren’t paying attention.
That is not what I see on this Website. The consistent message is see, ( which appears valid) is that you cannot correlate one weather event to climate change. That should be a constant, not a principle to be selectively used to re-enforce ones argument. If we dismiss that principle for cold weather, we must also dismiss it for hot weather, or storms or whatever else nature throws at us.
average temperature over a year is now “climate” ??? ahhhh … no …
Here is an example which may help you to understand why one days observations are not usually much help.
Look at the attached chart and imagine you have taken a temperature in the Arctic in middle of Summer.
Ah! you may say, The Arctic temperature is below average !
But look at the whole year, does your conclusion after one days observation hold up ?
You may get excited over one observation, but a years worth of data tells you something radically different.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Gareth,
The DMI Polar temperatures graph is telling a tale of two influences, and taking an average for an entire year mixes two quite different factors.
The fact the summer temperatures have been below normal for several years likely is a by product of the “Quiet Sun”. It may only be a slight dip but it is the one time of year any sea-ice can actually be melted from above. A half degree is big when it is the difference between H20 being solid and being liquid.
Once the sun is no longer a factor up above the Arctic circle the temperatures have been above average. Though above average they are below freezing, and can melt no ice. The higher temperatures are due to winds stirring up the air, and also inrushes of milder air from the south.
Though it seems counter-intuitive that a “cooler” Quiet Sun could be causing milder temperatures, it is possible if less energy from the sun can be shown to result in weaker westerlies at the equator. In other words the decrease in the sun’s energy would be measured by anemometers rather than thermometers.
Weaker westerlies would result in stronger El Ninos and weaker La Ninas, which would in turn result in milder, moister air at the equator.This then would translate north and cause milder winds to reach the Pole in the dark of winter (at least until surplus heat was exhausted at the equator.)
Even if my ideas of the cause of the cooler summers and the warmer winters at the Pole are incorrect, I think the general premise is valid: The two events have causes that are so different that averaging temperatures over an entire year tends to blear what should be a clear distinction.
Nothing ever died from an average temperature. Would you be one of those people who would argue that a record hot day was even warmer due to AGW? Plenty do. What do they believe about record cold temperatures though? That never seems to be mentioned. And nobody died from an average temperature.
Where I wrote “westerlies” I meant “trade winds”.
Gareth,
Reading comprehension fail! The whole point of the article is that record lows as well as record highs are nothing more than weather. They both happen with similar frequency. And your notion that a single year regional average tells us anything about long term global climate is laughable.
I did not say yearly records give definitive information on long term climate.
1/10 for reading comprehension Paul.
One observation tells us little. Yearly observations tell us much more. Long term observations like CET can be very useful in assessing climatological trends. Essentially, the longer the period of observation, the more useful the data. So one day, not much use. One year, better.
Since sometime in the 1990s or after the 1980s, record lows for specific dates at specific places in the US became much less frequent than record highs. There are two reasons. One is manmade global warming due to increase of greenhouse gases, mostly CO2. The other is growth of urban effects and energy consumption around places where official thermometers are located. Developments of mcmansions and other urban growth cause daily low temperatures in increasingly urban areas to mostly get warmer, with much less effect on daily high temperatures.
Gareth,
Wrong. One day and one year are equally useless for telling us about long term climatic trends. The fact that you don’t understand this basic concept is telling.
Double reading comprehension fail for Paul now but that is okay let me just explain the keywords here for you Paul. “Yearly observations” – The culmination of observations throughout the year and since context is a foreign concept for you it is very easy to understand the underlying context is a culmination of yearly observations.
“the longer the period of observation” – Obviously this means there is no determination of duration in which observations are taken the longer the better and obviously this could be decades or even centuries.
I will tell you what I see, all you are doing grooming what others say to conform to your level of idealism without any thought put to actually understand another persons point of view actually means. What is “laughable” here is you believe your own contortionist view which is reminiscent of adolescence behaviour. However no one is laughing because the people who are serious render your commentary moot on sight.
A logical mind looks for ways in which knowledge contained within oneself is flawed then seeks a better a solution.
https://www.inthesnow.com/ski-areas-pyrenees-dolomites-opening-early/
So is New Hampshire. http://brettonwoods.com/ https://www.skiwildcat.com/
We need more wind turbine at once !
On the ski slopes, right? The slopes can be very windy. (Maybe wind turbines on skis. They could generate their own wind that way! They’ll need a long cable for the electricity, but that could surely be done.)
Well, that’s like putting a small wind-turbine/generator on the back of your EV, to charge it & keep it running forever…
Beng135: Precisely!
Was in Gainsborough yesterday – we all know the place, its where King Canute (Knut – son of Sweyne Forkbeard(sp)) did his ‘tide turning’ stunt.
Not on a nice gentle sandy beach somewhere – he was up against the Trent Aegir – a force to be *seriously* reckoned with. One Big Lump of a river that simply stops, turns round and flows backwards, as fast as you can run, twice per day. And in total silence. Sends shivers down yer spine.
Anyway, the coffee shop I went to had a notice up apologising for their broken-down heating system – especially painful in the coldest November, so far, that Gainsboro has had for 7 years.
(Someone likes ‘watching the weather’)
Meanwhile, my tracking of long standing Wunderground stations, although showing a minor up-tick for September, still has England cooling at 0.3degC per year.
I recall Nick recently ‘having kittens’ at 6 deg per century warming, how will he cope with 30 degC (thirty, three oh) per century of cooling?
Explaining it away as the Polar Vortex is disingenuous. I don’t believe I have seen a heatwave anywhere that wasn’t caused by weather patterns – blocking highs and so on – rather than just appeared without any apparent reason.
It is lying by omission. Failing to give you all the known facts. How much mention of the big El Nino was there when jubilantly claiming the warming was back after the 18 year ‘pause’? Quietly in the background while nobody was looking if at all. The old adage that a lie can be halfway around the world before the truth has got its boots on is so true with a legacy media wanting scary headlines as opposed to factual reporting.
Weather Underground, who hypes up manmade global warming, hyped up the recent El Nino. My sensation there is that they were trying for implying that some of the high magnitude of the recent great El Nino was manmade.
The local bank says it’s 31 degrees this morning. In Jasper Alabama, just about as far into the deep south as you can get. It helps me understand the cagw alarmists so much better – they’re freaking nuts.
Its only cold until Gavin and his mates get their hands on the data. !
Nick or Mosh will find a way of homogenising it.
The odds are that what we can expect as a result of global warming is to see more
of this pattern of extreme cold. – – – Dr. John Holdren, The White House – 1/8/2014
The same Dr. A John Holdren that in the 70’s ranted on about Global Cooling going to kill everyone by the year 2000…
The funniest part is, the reason for the cold air then was also the polar vortex, which in a colder world would increase in amplitude and drive more cold air further south.
@menicholas the funniest part is, a colder world doesn’t have this problem the cold air bottles up because the vortex is much stronger.
Holdren’s rant about global cooling was in the late 60’s.
I remember chilly times in the 1980s and 1970s when outbreaks of cold Arctic air were common. One term I heard in the mid 1980s was “Siberian Express”.
The polar vortex has existed for as long as the Earth has had poles and rotation and an atmosphere.
Vortex was trotted out as a new way to make something entirely natural sound scary.
Holdren, a fear mongerer and hypester from the population bomb and ice age scams, is hardly credible if his track record is any judge.
Yes but he was President Obama’s “science advisor.” Doesn’t that count for something (or NOT.) I am surprised that Holdren can make such video’s with a straight face. He must be getting paid very well. Of course I am certain his ego has expanded greatly after “being in the White House.” He now thinks even higher of his own opinion that he did a decade ago.
A pattern of extreme cold due to “warming” would have to be matched by areas of extreme heat or the averages would not hold. There would need to be an explanation of why more energy retained causes far less mixing than what less energy retained does. It really makes no sense at all, but I guess that’s how it’s supposed to work. If sense were called for, there’d be little discusssion.
http://pamola.um.maine.edu/wx_frames/GFS-025deg/ARC-LEA/T2_anom/00.png
Looks like winter has been “turned on it’s side” this has been happening quite often the last several years. From my understanding the warmer winter temperatures we see in the Arctic cause the polar vortex to break down and form many fragment of smaller vortex’s. These smaller vortex’s tend to plunge south and cold air from Siberia is allowed to cross the arctic quickly and with little resistance. The effect of this is shortened or lengthened transition seasons and potentially brutal winters. It is very common these days to jump from late summer into early winter in only a few weeks.
Short springs and falls are not new. In Philadelphia, in most years air conditioning season starts a lot less than 3 months after snow tire season ended, and this is not new. For example, in 1974, the first 90 degree official temperature reading in Philadelphia for that year was soon followed by weather forecasts for frost in the suburbs, a bit of which actually happened. I remember an April heavy snow shower (2 inches in 20-25 minutes) in the Philadelphia suburb of Haverford in 1977 or 1978, and an April snow thunderstorm dumping about 2-3 inches of snow in less than an hour in a northwestern neighborhood within Philadelphia around 1970.
notice the rate of new ice formation relative to average
Sea ice extent is honestly such a bullshit metric mainly because it is relative to ice drift and has no relevance to the the state of the ice. The real king we need to look at is sea ice volume.
Toneb
I have no idea what you are trying to show by adding that plot of polar temperature anomalies, but it does illustrate that – when the arctic sea ice is below average levels for any day between mid-August and mid-April, the newly-exposed Arctic Ocean is LOSING more heat to the arctic sky (and then to space by increased LW radiation losses) than if more sea ice were present.
Less sea ice = More arctic ocean cooling. But slightly higher arctic air temperature – as the graphic shows. (Because the exposed arctic ocean at 2-4 degrees C is not “insulated” by a 1-2 meter “lid” of sea ice, thus more convection losses, more evaporation losses, less conductive losses, more LW radiation losses. And NO increased solar SW heat increases, since the the sun below the horizon!)
What that pic does show is that my 2 year old based forecast for a cold wave to sweep Europe for this winter is coming closer. …https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/19/arctic-sea-ice-extent-ends-up-not-even-close-to-setting-a-new-low-record/comment-page-1/#comment-2614666
I notice the red areas seem to be in areas where temperatures are made up. Is that a coincidence?
“I have no idea what you are trying to show by adding that plot of polar temperature anomalies”
Simply that regional cooling re current weather has a flip side – consequent regional warming elsewhere.
The blue is well outweighed by the red.
Your “flip side” is a gross over-simplification. Is that as far as your intellect can go?
Casablanca and south to Marrakesh looks hot.
Where we are it is 40°F and raining.
So?
Meanwhile in the frost belt nothing unusual. When the front came through northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire early yesterday morning we had rain, hail and thunder snow across the northern sections. Temperatures dropped into the teens with wind chills approaching zero in places. The roads were completely glazed with snow and ice as they often are in late November. Temperatures this morning across the region range from 9 to 20F with wind chills down to zero at 6 AM. http://www.weather.gov/btv/observations
Temperatures are predicted to be widespread single digits tonight. This is not unusual for this time of year and in the oldest local records dating back to 1894 the record low temperature for 10 November was 9F in 1995. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv
At another station with a shorter history the low on that date was 2F. Killington ski area opened this week and several others around the region open this weekend with man-made snow. I may not have put enough firewood up this year.
So, 9 degrees is typical, but it is the record as well?
menicholas:
The 9F record is for 10 November for that station and the St Johnsbury reporting station is in an area surrounded by brick and stone buildings and lots of asphalt. Other rural stations in the surrounding area are colder for November.
If you search the NWS Burlington VT and Gray ME NOW database under November “calendar day summaries”, “minimum temperatures” “por-2017” you will see the entire month. Other local stations with colder temperatures are East Haven, Island Pond, and Sutton 2 NE. Further afield Northfield to the west and Colebrook and Whitefield, NH likewise show colder temperatures for November.
We are expecting single digit temperatures tonight and may break the record FWIW.
Keith
http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=gyx
http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv
Where I live, we just broke a cold record a few days ago and there is the most snow on the ground on record right now.
I don’t see that global warming is happening at all. If it is, there is no noticeable difference and there are no negative impacts. The seasonal temperature changes dominate what the weather and climate is like and the extra CO2 is having no impact at all.
Global warming is going to melt the snow and ice. Well, if you are a place that used to get snow in the winter 50 years ago, you still get snow in the winter around the same dates as always.
Bill I
No noticeable change other than we have the only summer this year in September and a warm October. Was quite decent. We set a new low record high, about 2 C below the previous cold ‘high’ for the day, across a large part of Ontario, -3 v.s. the old high of -1. That dated from the 20’s.
It was -13 C last night (8.6F) in Waterloo.
polar vortex……stupid as naming a car Probe
The “Probes” sold well in San Francisco I heard.
So do radar detectors with Ky-band
@Lattitude … but not as bad as Prefect. That mistake was intergalactic.
To wit: … Although Ford had taken great care to blend into Earth society, he had “skimped a bit on his preparatory research,” and thought that the name “Ford Prefect” would be “nicely inconspicuous.” Ford “had simply mistaken the dominant life form.”
I once had a Probe. It was a turkey. I dumped it.
Hollywood types are too busy reciting poetry about Climate Change/Global Warming to worry about the Hollywood sleeze of the Woody Allen’s, Polanski’s and Weinstein’s and their ilk.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2015/nov/20/our-melting-shifting-liquid-world-celebrities-read-poems-on-climate-change
About 70% liquid, they are right there! More like a vodka slushie…
They better read the poetry fast… before the police show up.
John of Cloverdale,
Who needs a bunch of suspect actors reading poems for a Guardian audience, when you can have some at WUWT?
SMOKE AND MIRRORS
Chocolate fireguards spread from coast to coast
Where’s Don Quixote when needed most?
Great tricorned sticks poking natures eye
Cruciforms proving the global lie
Promulgated as man made warming
Junk science which is the real warning
Naked emperors must one day heed
Cries to dress their naked greed.
The new inquisition denies any
Contrarian views of the many
Opposed to the gospel of Al Gore
Stake burning s to rival those of yore
Censored scientists striving to be heard
Voices drowned by the stampeding herd
Of sycophantic media hacks
“Publish and be damned” but wont print facts.
David Bellamy and Johnnie Ball
Scientists of repute before their fall
‘the truth is out there’ but you can bet
Its only found on the internet
Jo Stalin and Gobbels thought them well
Ostracise opponents who might tell
The story behind the propaganda
Of the tax gathering agenda
So called experts daily dose of doom
Shepherding the sheep to the fold in gloom
Each outrageous global warming claim
Printed as fact to apportion blame
The drip feed gets more inedible
As the claims get more incredible
Canutist Ministers do not know
That carbon dioxide makes plant glow.
Unimpressed cats get a vegan dish
To save the planets declining fish
A UN panel recently vows
To tax the emissions of dairy cows
Science purporting to verify facts
Subsumed by powers to generate tax
Sinister canards will only die
With seekers of truth like you an I.
See John, who need the fake news Guardian
Waterside4,
PoetLaureat to the fore!
Time for a Global Cooling celebration.
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/11/10/global-cooling-celebration/
I hate cold! I want my global warming!
I like cold! I’ll send you my warming if you send me your cooling!