103 year record cold low for New York City set

Added: 11/11 8:30AM PST See update below. Records were set over the past two days at Central Park, but the 144 Year old record still stands.


Dr. Ryan Maue has been tracking the forecasts for the Northeast, and the result is…ah, chilling. Maue says the “polar vortex” is responsible for the exceptionally cold and dry air invading the Northeast USA.

He goes on to say that the all time record for New York City of 22°F forecast by morning in NYC would be coldest, earliest temperature on record.

The previous earliest record of reaching 22°F was Nov 13, 1873. The 21°F expected for NYC would be the coldest in 144 years. Further up Long Island, temperatures are expected in the teens.

A record low temperature that lasted 103 years has already been set in Central Park according to the National Weather Service:



RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

0245 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017



...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...



A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY

YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 27 SET IN 1914.



Source: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=okx

The rest of New York State will be even colder by morning, with temperatures in the teens to hovering near zero.

UPDATE: here below is what NWS New York said this morning. Overnight winds kept temperatures from falling to record lows. I’ve updated the title from “144 year earliest cold record for New York City to be broken – new 103 year record low already set” to “103 year record cold low for New York City set” to be accurate going forward.

Two records for cold were broken in the last two days.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

0801 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017



...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...



A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY

THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 28 LAST SET IN 1933.

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Ssssssh!

This air was so much colder than the ocean, which “remembers” the summer, that the water was “steaming” like a cup of tea this morning. Also the Atlantic was so “hot” today that islands in the distance seemed to float over the shimmer of a mirage, like you see shimmering over a hot highway in July.
comment image

Everything is relative. The Atlantic really wasn’t hot as a summer highway; it was cool, but the air was bleeping FRIGID!

https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2017/11/11/local-view-cold-comfort/

BernieG

A great success for green energy! All the wind turbines installed in the ocean are finally having some effect. The propellers are blowing wind over the water, cooling the surface, basic high school physics. Al Gore was right all along.

tom0mason

Err, that would be the polar vortex, the movement of which, they can not model too well?

You mean the so called declining numbers of polar bears racing around in ever decreasing circles, desperate to find breathing space which is being massively reduced due to their increasing over-population?

I don’t think this polar bear is racing around anything!
comment image

John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia

They cannot model ENSO either. Clueless!

Trebla

This just shows how much short term variability there is in the climate and why we shouldn’t get excited about single “record” events like hot days or cold days. Taking that reasoning a little further along, a swing of one or two degrees over a century in the average temperature is to be expected and is certainly not abnormal. Our human lifespan and perspective is far too short. The earth is billions of years old. We’re here for the blink of an eye.

Paul Penrose

Trebla,
You nailed it.

Gerry, England

Back in the days when programmes presented by David Attenborough were informative and not full of global warming lies, he presented Life On Earth. At the start he was in a desert somewhere with a row of burning braziers stretching into the distance. They were scaled at billions of years to indicate how long Earth has existed. Standing at the last brazier he said that our presence amounted to only a number of inches within that last brazier.

Gary Pearse.

So then TomO, when CO2 doubles, the ‘models’ tell us that Arctic Amplification causes it to warm 3x as fast so that a polar vortex will become like a sirocco from Morocco! Maybe Brittney Spears is the model they are using for this. Tom, it is your duty as an independent person to overcome the modern education they shackled you with and think for yourself. The teachers, professors, CNN, the DNC, aren’t always right. Sound bytes aren’t enough. The NYT, the Atlantic and even American Progress have made a mistake or two. Journalists and politicians (lawyers) aren’t good sources. The parrots aren’t a he heroes in this crazy world. Think for yourself even if you come up wrong now and again.

You do come to WUWT at least which gives you other perspectives, which makes you head and shoulders above most of your fellows. Don’t waste all the opportunity by clinging to catechisms.

Arctic amplification is for real, and that is one thing the climate models got right. The part of the northern hemisphere with variable snow/ice coverage has greater temperature change than the world as a whole does due to surface albedo positive feedback. Check global maps of almost any time in the past decade of monthly or better still yearly global temperature anomalies. Arctic amplification would stop if the Arctic gets warm enough to make it free of ice and snow whenever wherever the sun shines in the Arctic, or if it and near-Arctic high latitudes get covered year-round with ice and snow, and that would shift the high positive feedback to the middle and some subtropical latitudes in the northern hemisphere. (Note the high climate instability that was common during ice age glaciations due to variable snow/ice coverage at latitudes that get more sunlight than the Arctic does.)

A C Osborn

Please supply the data that demonstrates this, the posters should not have to do so themselves.
You have made an assertion which makes no sense whatsoever, the angle of incidence of Sunlight when the Ice is at it’s higher extents is so low that it would not matter if it was Ice or Water.
So please prove it.

Sara

Yo meant “the movement of which they cannot CONTROL”, didn’t you?

tom0mason

No!
Their models are a tragedy of incompetence. They have all the predictive value of a homogenized astrology reading. Unphysical, unscientific, codified guesswork, approximation, and data manipulations. You might as well read tea-leaves! Anyone here who works on these nonsensical models should be ashamed. Ashamed for taking money under false pretenses.

kaliforniakook

tom0mason – right on with the association of Climate Science and Astrology. Both use models, both claim model success whatever happens.

Richard

Yes, but record cold is just *weather*, while any warm event, drought, flood, storm, wind, fire, are all because of global warming.

Jimmy Haigh

Actually record cold is also a symptom of global warming…..

Urederra

And the pause is also a symptom of climate change.

billw1984

And so are mild winters. It’s “extreme” weather, you know!

Gary Pearse.

So still true when the temperature doubles? Gee Jimmy, no honest person can be that devout. Say it slowly with sincerity and I think you will get what I mean. I think you will smile.

Only CO2 can cause a 144-year record to be broken! Proof of CAGW! /sarc

it won’t last. previous record low will need to be adjusted downwards to satisfy. the. computer models.

The record lows and highs that you see in weather reports are unadjusted. For example, the daily climate reports at http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx
such as the one for Central Park NY for November 10th. It says the low temperature of 24 degrees F breaks the previous record of 28 set in 1933 and 1926. That 28 degrees F is raw data from a thermometer. The adjustments that are used for global temperature determinations are by a fraction of a degree, and done only in processes for determining climate change.

Yes but they predicted more cold weather, except when global warming causes more warm weather…

Michael Darby

This is caused by the same Australian coal mines who killed off all the polar bears on the Great Barrier Reef

& drowned the penguins (that’s why penguins moved from Manhattan to Antarctica).

Leo Smith

Is it true some NY nuns were kidnapped by the local platoon of the Green Brigade in the mistaken belief they were penguins needing saving from extinction?

Hans

Yes, that is why penguins live only in the southern hemisphere!!

The only exception being, Pittsburgh, PA.

“Yes, that is why penguins live only in the southern hemisphere!!” … On closer checking, you’ll find that some penguins do live in the Northern Hemisphere, on one or more of the Galapagos Islands.

Not all species of penguins live where it is cold year round. The chinstrap penguin lives on the Antarctica Peninsula, nearby parts of South America and nearby islands. Other penguin species live in even warmer parts of the southern hemisphere. There is the Galapagos penguin, which lives on the equatorial Galapagos islands.

Bitter&twisted

Yet another extreme weather event.
Exactly as predicted by the climate modelers.
When will you sceptics ever learn?

Sarc

Donald

Cold weather occurred.

Gather round for the “sceptic” circle jerk.

Global warming alarmists say “buy thermal underwear futures”.

tom0mason

I floated the idea a couple of years ago of using warm weather and cold weather clothing sales as a proxy for what people are feeling in the world of changing climate.
Unfortunately it was a nonstarter, UN-IPCC and it’s Soros affiliated universities wouldn’t fund it.

B.j.

I was think we all know its due to a weather pattern but the act of giving this one a particular name (that does predate the warming alarmism) to make it appear well understood and predicted by AGW is a bit too much.

Mike Bryant

This is obviously “rotten” coldness.

Gareth

This is an interesting statistic. But your reporting does differ from how you report a record high temperature. When that happens you always seem to doubt its validity by pointing out it has happened previously. It will be interesting to see the average temperature over the year in that region to see if this reflects on climatic issues as opposed to weather.

lee

You mean like record temperatures in California, that only apply to that particular day?

Phoenix44

No, there is no difference. And how does a regional average temperature reflect global changes in climate? And why a year?

Gareth

Because year on year statistics gives a better idea of trend than single events.

JohnWho

A record high temperature somewhere seems to always be linked in the media to “global warming/climate change” with an implied “See what’s happening, it is gonna get worse”, while a record low temperature somewhere is simply a local weather report.

If you haven’t noticed that, Gareth, then you aren’t paying attention.

Gareth

That is not what I see on this Website. The consistent message is see, ( which appears valid) is that you cannot correlate one weather event to climate change. That should be a constant, not a principle to be selectively used to re-enforce ones argument. If we dismiss that principle for cold weather, we must also dismiss it for hot weather, or storms or whatever else nature throws at us.

Kaiser Derden

average temperature over a year is now “climate” ??? ahhhh … no …

Gareth

Here is an example which may help you to understand why one days observations are not usually much help.
Look at the attached chart and imagine you have taken a temperature in the Arctic in middle of Summer.
Ah! you may say, The Arctic temperature is below average !
But look at the whole year, does your conclusion after one days observation hold up ?
You may get excited over one observation, but a years worth of data tells you something radically different.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Gareth,

The DMI Polar temperatures graph is telling a tale of two influences, and taking an average for an entire year mixes two quite different factors.

The fact the summer temperatures have been below normal for several years likely is a by product of the “Quiet Sun”. It may only be a slight dip but it is the one time of year any sea-ice can actually be melted from above. A half degree is big when it is the difference between H20 being solid and being liquid.

Once the sun is no longer a factor up above the Arctic circle the temperatures have been above average. Though above average they are below freezing, and can melt no ice. The higher temperatures are due to winds stirring up the air, and also inrushes of milder air from the south.

Though it seems counter-intuitive that a “cooler” Quiet Sun could be causing milder temperatures, it is possible if less energy from the sun can be shown to result in weaker westerlies at the equator. In other words the decrease in the sun’s energy would be measured by anemometers rather than thermometers.

Weaker westerlies would result in stronger El Ninos and weaker La Ninas, which would in turn result in milder, moister air at the equator.This then would translate north and cause milder winds to reach the Pole in the dark of winter (at least until surplus heat was exhausted at the equator.)

Even if my ideas of the cause of the cooler summers and the warmer winters at the Pole are incorrect, I think the general premise is valid: The two events have causes that are so different that averaging temperatures over an entire year tends to blear what should be a clear distinction.

TimTheToolMan

Nothing ever died from an average temperature. Would you be one of those people who would argue that a record hot day was even warmer due to AGW? Plenty do. What do they believe about record cold temperatures though? That never seems to be mentioned. And nobody died from an average temperature.

Where I wrote “westerlies” I meant “trade winds”.

Paul Penrose

Gareth,
Reading comprehension fail! The whole point of the article is that record lows as well as record highs are nothing more than weather. They both happen with similar frequency. And your notion that a single year regional average tells us anything about long term global climate is laughable.

Gareth

I did not say yearly records give definitive information on long term climate.
1/10 for reading comprehension Paul.
One observation tells us little. Yearly observations tell us much more. Long term observations like CET can be very useful in assessing climatological trends. Essentially, the longer the period of observation, the more useful the data. So one day, not much use. One year, better.

Since sometime in the 1990s or after the 1980s, record lows for specific dates at specific places in the US became much less frequent than record highs. There are two reasons. One is manmade global warming due to increase of greenhouse gases, mostly CO2. The other is growth of urban effects and energy consumption around places where official thermometers are located. Developments of mcmansions and other urban growth cause daily low temperatures in increasingly urban areas to mostly get warmer, with much less effect on daily high temperatures.

Paul Penrose

Gareth,
Wrong. One day and one year are equally useless for telling us about long term climatic trends. The fact that you don’t understand this basic concept is telling.

Jeffrey John Banks

Double reading comprehension fail for Paul now but that is okay let me just explain the keywords here for you Paul. “Yearly observations” – The culmination of observations throughout the year and since context is a foreign concept for you it is very easy to understand the underlying context is a culmination of yearly observations.

“the longer the period of observation” – Obviously this means there is no determination of duration in which observations are taken the longer the better and obviously this could be decades or even centuries.

I will tell you what I see, all you are doing grooming what others say to conform to your level of idealism without any thought put to actually understand another persons point of view actually means. What is “laughable” here is you believe your own contortionist view which is reminiscent of adolescence behaviour. However no one is laughing because the people who are serious render your commentary moot on sight.

A logical mind looks for ways in which knowledge contained within oneself is flawed then seeks a better a solution.

Robertvd
flynn

We need more wind turbine at once !

Sheri

On the ski slopes, right? The slopes can be very windy. (Maybe wind turbines on skis. They could generate their own wind that way! They’ll need a long cable for the electricity, but that could surely be done.)

beng135

Well, that’s like putting a small wind-turbine/generator on the back of your EV, to charge it & keep it running forever…

Sheri

Beng135: Precisely!

Peta of Newark

Was in Gainsborough yesterday – we all know the place, its where King Canute (Knut – son of Sweyne Forkbeard(sp)) did his ‘tide turning’ stunt.

Not on a nice gentle sandy beach somewhere – he was up against the Trent Aegir – a force to be *seriously* reckoned with. One Big Lump of a river that simply stops, turns round and flows backwards, as fast as you can run, twice per day. And in total silence. Sends shivers down yer spine.

Anyway, the coffee shop I went to had a notice up apologising for their broken-down heating system – especially painful in the coldest November, so far, that Gainsboro has had for 7 years.
(Someone likes ‘watching the weather’)

Meanwhile, my tracking of long standing Wunderground stations, although showing a minor up-tick for September, still has England cooling at 0.3degC per year.

I recall Nick recently ‘having kittens’ at 6 deg per century warming, how will he cope with 30 degC (thirty, three oh) per century of cooling?

Phoenix44

Explaining it away as the Polar Vortex is disingenuous. I don’t believe I have seen a heatwave anywhere that wasn’t caused by weather patterns – blocking highs and so on – rather than just appeared without any apparent reason.

Gerry, England

It is lying by omission. Failing to give you all the known facts. How much mention of the big El Nino was there when jubilantly claiming the warming was back after the 18 year ‘pause’? Quietly in the background while nobody was looking if at all. The old adage that a lie can be halfway around the world before the truth has got its boots on is so true with a legacy media wanting scary headlines as opposed to factual reporting.

Weather Underground, who hypes up manmade global warming, hyped up the recent El Nino. My sensation there is that they were trying for implying that some of the high magnitude of the recent great El Nino was manmade.

F. Leghorn

The local bank says it’s 31 degrees this morning. In Jasper Alabama, just about as far into the deep south as you can get. It helps me understand the cagw alarmists so much better – they’re freaking nuts.

AndyG55

Its only cold until Gavin and his mates get their hands on the data. !

Nick or Mosh will find a way of homogenising it.

Steve Case

The odds are that what we can expect as a result of global warming is to see more
of this pattern of extreme cold. – – – Dr. John Holdren, The White House – 1/8/2014

Great Greyhounds

The same Dr. A John Holdren that in the 70’s ranted on about Global Cooling going to kill everyone by the year 2000…

menicholas

The funniest part is, the reason for the cold air then was also the polar vortex, which in a colder world would increase in amplitude and drive more cold air further south.

Jeffrey John Banks

@menicholas the funniest part is, a colder world doesn’t have this problem the cold air bottles up because the vortex is much stronger.

Crispin in Waterloo

Holdren’s rant about global cooling was in the late 60’s.

I remember chilly times in the 1980s and 1970s when outbreaks of cold Arctic air were common. One term I heard in the mid 1980s was “Siberian Express”.

hunter

The polar vortex has existed for as long as the Earth has had poles and rotation and an atmosphere.
Vortex was trotted out as a new way to make something entirely natural sound scary.
Holdren, a fear mongerer and hypester from the population bomb and ice age scams, is hardly credible if his track record is any judge.

Edwin

Yes but he was President Obama’s “science advisor.” Doesn’t that count for something (or NOT.) I am surprised that Holdren can make such video’s with a straight face. He must be getting paid very well. Of course I am certain his ego has expanded greatly after “being in the White House.” He now thinks even higher of his own opinion that he did a decade ago.

Sheri

A pattern of extreme cold due to “warming” would have to be matched by areas of extreme heat or the averages would not hold. There would need to be an explanation of why more energy retained causes far less mixing than what less energy retained does. It really makes no sense at all, but I guess that’s how it’s supposed to work. If sense were called for, there’d be little discusssion.

Toneb
Jeffrey John Banks

Looks like winter has been “turned on it’s side” this has been happening quite often the last several years. From my understanding the warmer winter temperatures we see in the Arctic cause the polar vortex to break down and form many fragment of smaller vortex’s. These smaller vortex’s tend to plunge south and cold air from Siberia is allowed to cross the arctic quickly and with little resistance. The effect of this is shortened or lengthened transition seasons and potentially brutal winters. It is very common these days to jump from late summer into early winter in only a few weeks.

Short springs and falls are not new. In Philadelphia, in most years air conditioning season starts a lot less than 3 months after snow tire season ended, and this is not new. For example, in 1974, the first 90 degree official temperature reading in Philadelphia for that year was soon followed by weather forecasts for frost in the suburbs, a bit of which actually happened. I remember an April heavy snow shower (2 inches in 20-25 minutes) in the Philadelphia suburb of Haverford in 1977 or 1978, and an April snow thunderstorm dumping about 2-3 inches of snow in less than an hour in a northwestern neighborhood within Philadelphia around 1970.

comment image

notice the rate of new ice formation relative to average

Jeffrey John Banks

Sea ice extent is honestly such a bullshit metric mainly because it is relative to ice drift and has no relevance to the the state of the ice. The real king we need to look at is sea ice volume.

Toneb
I have no idea what you are trying to show by adding that plot of polar temperature anomalies, but it does illustrate that – when the arctic sea ice is below average levels for any day between mid-August and mid-April, the newly-exposed Arctic Ocean is LOSING more heat to the arctic sky (and then to space by increased LW radiation losses) than if more sea ice were present.

Less sea ice = More arctic ocean cooling. But slightly higher arctic air temperature – as the graphic shows. (Because the exposed arctic ocean at 2-4 degrees C is not “insulated” by a 1-2 meter “lid” of sea ice, thus more convection losses, more evaporation losses, less conductive losses, more LW radiation losses. And NO increased solar SW heat increases, since the the sun below the horizon!)

What that pic does show is that my 2 year old based forecast for a cold wave to sweep Europe for this winter is coming closer. …https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/19/arctic-sea-ice-extent-ends-up-not-even-close-to-setting-a-new-low-record/comment-page-1/#comment-2614666

Sheri

I notice the red areas seem to be in areas where temperatures are made up. Is that a coincidence?

Toneb

“I have no idea what you are trying to show by adding that plot of polar temperature anomalies”

Simply that regional cooling re current weather has a flip side – consequent regional warming elsewhere.
The blue is well outweighed by the red.

Michael Jankowski

Your “flip side” is a gross over-simplification. Is that as far as your intellect can go?

John F. Hultquist

Casablanca and south to Marrakesh looks hot.
Where we are it is 40°F and raining.
So?

Keith

Meanwhile in the frost belt nothing unusual. When the front came through northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire early yesterday morning we had rain, hail and thunder snow across the northern sections. Temperatures dropped into the teens with wind chills approaching zero in places. The roads were completely glazed with snow and ice as they often are in late November. Temperatures this morning across the region range from 9 to 20F with wind chills down to zero at 6 AM. http://www.weather.gov/btv/observations

Temperatures are predicted to be widespread single digits tonight. This is not unusual for this time of year and in the oldest local records dating back to 1894 the record low temperature for 10 November was 9F in 1995. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv

At another station with a shorter history the low on that date was 2F. Killington ski area opened this week and several others around the region open this weekend with man-made snow. I may not have put enough firewood up this year.

menicholas

So, 9 degrees is typical, but it is the record as well?

Keith

menicholas:

The 9F record is for 10 November for that station and the St Johnsbury reporting station is in an area surrounded by brick and stone buildings and lots of asphalt. Other rural stations in the surrounding area are colder for November.

If you search the NWS Burlington VT and Gray ME NOW database under November “calendar day summaries”, “minimum temperatures” “por-2017” you will see the entire month. Other local stations with colder temperatures are East Haven, Island Pond, and Sutton 2 NE. Further afield Northfield to the west and Colebrook and Whitefield, NH likewise show colder temperatures for November.

We are expecting single digit temperatures tonight and may break the record FWIW.

Keith

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=gyx
http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv

Where I live, we just broke a cold record a few days ago and there is the most snow on the ground on record right now.

I don’t see that global warming is happening at all. If it is, there is no noticeable difference and there are no negative impacts. The seasonal temperature changes dominate what the weather and climate is like and the extra CO2 is having no impact at all.

Global warming is going to melt the snow and ice. Well, if you are a place that used to get snow in the winter 50 years ago, you still get snow in the winter around the same dates as always.

Crispin in Waterloo

Bill I

No noticeable change other than we have the only summer this year in September and a warm October. Was quite decent. We set a new low record high, about 2 C below the previous cold ‘high’ for the day, across a large part of Ontario, -3 v.s. the old high of -1. That dated from the 20’s.

It was -13 C last night (8.6F) in Waterloo.

Latitude

polar vortex……stupid as naming a car Probe

F. Leghorn

The “Probes” sold well in San Francisco I heard.

I Came I Saw I Left

So do radar detectors with Ky-band

@Lattitude … but not as bad as Prefect. That mistake was intergalactic.

To wit: … Although Ford had taken great care to blend into Earth society, he had “skimped a bit on his preparatory research,” and thought that the name “Ford Prefect” would be “nicely inconspicuous.” Ford “had simply mistaken the dominant life form.”

Sara

I once had a Probe. It was a turkey. I dumped it.

John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia

Hollywood types are too busy reciting poetry about Climate Change/Global Warming to worry about the Hollywood sleeze of the Woody Allen’s, Polanski’s and Weinstein’s and their ilk.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2015/nov/20/our-melting-shifting-liquid-world-celebrities-read-poems-on-climate-change

Patrick MJD

About 70% liquid, they are right there! More like a vodka slushie…

Mike Bryant

They better read the poetry fast… before the police show up.

waterside4

John of Cloverdale,
Who needs a bunch of suspect actors reading poems for a Guardian audience, when you can have some at WUWT?

SMOKE AND MIRRORS

Chocolate fireguards spread from coast to coast
Where’s Don Quixote when needed most?
Great tricorned sticks poking natures eye
Cruciforms proving the global lie
Promulgated as man made warming
Junk science which is the real warning
Naked emperors must one day heed
Cries to dress their naked greed.

The new inquisition denies any
Contrarian views of the many
Opposed to the gospel of Al Gore
Stake burning s to rival those of yore
Censored scientists striving to be heard
Voices drowned by the stampeding herd
Of sycophantic media hacks
“Publish and be damned” but wont print facts.

David Bellamy and Johnnie Ball
Scientists of repute before their fall
‘the truth is out there’ but you can bet
Its only found on the internet
Jo Stalin and Gobbels thought them well
Ostracise opponents who might tell
The story behind the propaganda
Of the tax gathering agenda

So called experts daily dose of doom
Shepherding the sheep to the fold in gloom
Each outrageous global warming claim
Printed as fact to apportion blame
The drip feed gets more inedible
As the claims get more incredible
Canutist Ministers do not know
That carbon dioxide makes plant glow.

Unimpressed cats get a vegan dish
To save the planets declining fish
A UN panel recently vows
To tax the emissions of dairy cows
Science purporting to verify facts
Subsumed by powers to generate tax
Sinister canards will only die
With seekers of truth like you an I.

See John, who need the fake news Guardian

Ross King

Waterside4,
PoetLaureat to the fore!

F. Leghorn

I hate cold! I want my global warming!

Sheri

I like cold! I’ll send you my warming if you send me your cooling!

RAH

If Joe Bastardi and gang are right then this is just the beginning of a late November and December that will be remembered by many of us in the regions of the NE, East central, and eastern portions of the Midwest. They’re talking temperatures for the first half of this winter that are comparable to the depths of the winter during the 2013-14. During the same period above average precip is expected so I suspect that many more new lows will be set during that period and we in IL, IN, OH have the best shot at a white Christmas we’ve had in some time.

According the Joe the US model isn’t seeing it yet and shows warmer than average temperatures for that period. But the European model is starting to see it.

menicholas

They are now predicting snow across the eastern US for Thanksgiving.
Depending on how far south, that could be pretty unusual.
SW Florida, BTW, is oasty toasty warm with clear blue skies and extremely perfect weather, and expected to stay this way for the foreseeable future.
But, if there is a big snowstorm in the NE US, Florida will get cold. Always does.

RAH

When I was a kid in the late 60’s and early 70’s, every Thanksgiving morning Dad and I and some uncles and my grandfather would go rabbit hunting. I don’t recall any of those times that there wasn’t at least some snow on the ground and I remember one in particular when there was nearly a food of snow.

RAH

“Record cold temperatures freeze Chicago”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/record-cold-temperatures-freeze-chicago/ar-BBEPAsn?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

BTW this truck driver was down in the area a little SW of Macon, GA Wednesday and Thursday this week. Rained all day Thursday and I had my bunk heater on both nights.

This is consistent with the beginning of a little ice age.

Javier

In 2014, Dr. John Holdren, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy for the Obama administration said: “a growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern we can expect to see with increasing frequency, as global warming continues.”
The Huffington Post. January 8, 2014

Extreme cold is also explained by global warming.
comment image

Patrick MJD

That’s the most reliable model to date! And it’s a cartoon…

Too funny!!!!

Robertvd

comment image

¿ The Sun ?

Patrick MJD

Data reliable before 1930? I am not convinced.

Bruce Cobb

Firefox won’t connect to that site.

menicholas

Try solarham.com

RAH
RAH

Is there not pretty good correlation between low solar activity and deeper than normal dips in the “polar vortex”? It looks like 20 our of the last 30 days the sun has been spotless.
http://sidc.oma.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

Sheri

Too simplistic. A chaotic system such as climate will be ruled by multiple factors and the dominent ones will most likely change over time. It’s not “which one”, it’s which one “at the moment”.

Alexander Vissers

Another extreme weather event, told ya! Global climate discruption now reached New York city, its like the day before yesterday (or was it 1914). Better put some extra coal in the stove.

Sheri

My garden froze August 23rd in 2015. It meant absolutely nothing, other than I had to trim off frost-bitten plants and hope they would recover. The weather was very warm thereafter until well into October, many of the plants recovered, and I got a normal yeild from the garden. So much for “extreme weather”.

menicholas

So, how cold did it actually get?

Bruce Cobb

Here in New Hampshire it got so cold, the cows gave ice cream.

Going back this far, you must also subtract the Urban Heat Island effect. So assume the UHI is approx 3 degrees F, then the equivalent temp expected might be -18 F.

beng135

Low of 14F here in central Appalachians at a low elevation. Almost certainly a daily record low.

In Manitoba we set an all-time record low on Nov 9 – -26.6C. We are sending this south to share with you. You are welcome. Please send some FL warmth north in return. We are friends – and all that!

beng135

Thanks for sharing — it’s nice & clean, but would you please add alittle more CO2 to it?

etudiant

Low for Central Park in Manhattan was 24*F.

ossqss

comment image

joelobryan

upside: the plumbers will be making a lot of extra Christmas cash.

Bruce Cobb

Plumber? I hardly knew her.

The Solar Output is now into the Solar Cycle Minimum. This will last for 4 to 5 years. Solar UV and EUV are now at the lowest values for a Solar Cycle. You can monitor the amount of Solar UV (EUV) by analyzing the Solar Radio Flux; presently at 68 sfu. The Solar UV(EUV) creates Ozone for the Ozone layer.

The increase Solar UV (EUV) causes the Troposphere to expand providing a warming blanket. The decrease in Solar UV(EUV) causes the Troposphere to contract reducing the insulation effect.

Presently, an Ozone hole is starting to open over the Arctic. The Ozone hole will provide a path for heat to move directly into space.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_toz_nh_f00.png

NOT CO2; it is the Sun.

beng135

That looks like mostly ozone mountains…..

DWR54

Jet stream is looping fairly low across N America at the minute.

http://pamola.um.maine.edu/fcst_frames/GFS-025deg/DailySummary/GFS-025deg_WORLD-CED_WS250.png

Sara

That ‘polar vortex’ is something the weather forecasters used to call an Alberta clipper, because it came from that general direction. I think it starts in Siberia and flows over the North Pole. Maybe they should be checking Siberian weather now.

Historically, an Alberta Clipper was an extratropical cyclone that forms in Alberta, moves southeast into the midwest US, then moves eastward into the mid-Atlantic US and/or southern New England. In somewhat recent years, some in the news media have referred to the chilly weather pattern that favors these storms as an Alberta Clipper, before they started saying it was the polar vortex shifting southward.

Steve Oregon

above,,,,Trebla, “a swing of one or two degrees over a century in the average temperature is to be expected and is certainly not abnormal”

True enough. But finding a swing of one or two degrees where one may not exist is less than normal.
So much so that it could even be sinister.

The raw data rural temperature trend suggests abnormality. 🙂
comment image

Is this degrees F or C?

David Gradidge

In The Times today reported that many of the alpine ski resorts are opening early following heavy snow falls with more to come. However the same thing happened last year and was followed by “50 days without a snowflake”.

Retired_Engineer_Jim

NWS New York NY

@NWSNewYorkNY

Record low temperatures were set at 5 of our 6 climate sites this morning. Temperatures will only rise into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon.
5:15 AM – Nov 11, 2017

What is a climate site when it is at home? I have always assumed that the NWS reporting stations were reporting the weather.

Sara

It snowed in my kingdom yesterday, about 0.4 inch. I got my usual ‘first snowfall’ photos. the temperature dropped to 16F Thursday nigh, and that brought us cold WEATHER. The fact that our October WEATHER was wet and warm kept most of the trees full of green leaves, and my neighbor mowed my lawn on Wednesday.

It’s weather, you silly climate-holics. You have no control over it. You can only hope for an accurate forecast (which we got) and enough common sense to dress appropriately. just glad I did all my grocery shopping on Thursday before the cold set in.

Apple cider heated up, with a slice of lemon in it, is good for this kind of weather.

Gunga Din

Records.
I have a few vinyl record. And about 30 or so Bakelite records.
Add outside heat, the vinyl records becomes…malleable.
I don’t know about NYC, but here in my little spot on the globe, past records have been mauled.
(Hope this appears correctly)

Rocord Lows Comparison						
Newer-'12			Older-'07 (did not include ties)			
7-Jan	-5	1884	Jan-07	-6	1942	New record 1 warmer and 58 years earlier
8-Jan	-9	1968	Jan-08	-12	1942	New record 3 warmer and 37 years later
3-Mar	1	1980	Mar-03	0	1943	New record 3 warmer and 26 years later
13-Mar	5	1960	Mar-13	7	1896	New record 2 cooler and 64 years later
8-May	31	1954	May-08	29	1947	New record 3 warmer and 26 years later
9-May	30	1983	May-09	28	1947	New tied record 2 warmer same year and 19 and 36 years later
	30	1966				
	30	1947				
12-May	35	1976	May-12	34	1941	New record 1 warmer and 45 years later
30-Jun	47	1988	Jun-30	46	1943	New record 1 warmer and 35 years later
12-Jul	51	1973	Jul-12	47	1940	New record 4 warmer and 33 years later
13-Jul	50	1940	Jul-13	44	1940	New record 6 warmer and same year
17-Jul	52	1896	Jul-17	53	1989	New record 1 cooler and 93 years earlier
20-Jul	50	1929	Jul-20	49	1947	New record 1 warmer and 18 years earlier
23-Jul	51	1981	Jul-23	47	1947	New record 4 warmer and 34 years later
24-Jul	53	1985	Jul-24	52	1947	New record 1 warmer and 38 years later
26-Jul	52	1911	Jul-26	50	1946	New record 2 warmer and 35 years later
31-Jul	54	1966	Jul-31	47	1967	New record 7 warmer and 1 years later
19-Aug	49	1977	Aug-19	48	1943	New record 1 warmer and 10, 21 and 34 years later
	49	1964				
	49	1953				
21-Aug	44	1950	Aug-21	43	1940	New record 1 warmer and 10 years later
26-Aug	48	1958	Aug-26	47	1945	New record 1 warmer and 13 years later
27-Aug	46	1968	Aug-27	45	1945	New record 1 warmer and 23 years later
12-Sep	44	1985	Sep-12	42	1940	New record 2 warmer and 15, 27 and 45 years later
	44	1967				
	44	1955				
26-Sep	35	1950	Sep-26	33	1940	New record 2 warmer and 12 earlier and 10 years later
	35	1928				
27-Sep	36	1991	Sep-27	32	1947	New record 4 warmer and 44 years later
29-Sep	32	1961	Sep-29	31	1942	New record 1 warmer and 19 years later
2-Oct	32	1974	Oct-02	31	1946	New record 1 warmer and 38 years earlier and 19 years later
	32	1908				
15-Oct	31	1969	Oct-15	24	1939	New tied record same year but 7 warmer and 22 and 30 years later
	31	1961				
	31	1939				
16-Oct	31	1970	Oct-16	30	1944	New record 1 warmer and 26 years later
24-Nov	8	1950	Nov-24	7	1950	New tied record same year but 1 warmer
29-Nov	3	1887	Nov-29	2	1887	New tied record same year but 1 warmer
4-Dec	8	1976	Dec-04	3	1966	New record 5 warmer and 10 years later
21-Dec	-10	1989	Dec-21	-11	1942	New tied record same year but 1 warmer and 47 years later
	-10	1942				
			31			
?			Dec-05	8	1976	December 5 missing from 2012 list
						
Record Highs comparison						
Newer-April '12			Older-'07 (did not include ties)			
6-Jan	68	1946	Jan-06	69	1946	Same year but "new" record 1*F lower
9-Jan	62	1946	Jan-09	65	1946	Same year but "new" record 3*F lower
31-Jan	66	2002	Jan-31	62	1917	"New" record 4*F higher but not in '07 list
4-Feb	61	1962	Feb-04	66	1946	"New" tied records 5*F lower
4-Feb	61	1991				
23-Mar	81	1907	Mar-23	76	1966	"New" record 5*F higher but not in '07 list
25-Mar	84	1929	Mar-25	85	1945	"New" record 1*F lower
5-Apr	82	1947	Apr-05	83	1947	"New" tied records 1*F lower
5-Apr	82	1988				
6-Apr	83	1929	Apr-06	82	1929	Same year but "new" record 1*F higher
19-Apr	85	1958	Apr-19	86	1941	"New" tied records 1*F lower
19-Apr	85	2002				
16-May	91	1900	May-16	96	1900	Same year but "new" record 5*F lower
30-May	93	1953	May-30	95	1915	"New" record 2*F lower
31-Jul	100	1999	Jul-31	96	1954	"New" record 4*F higher but not in '07 list
11-Aug	96	1926	Aug-11	98	1944	"New" tied records 2*F lower
11-Aug	96	1944				
18-Aug	94	1916	Aug-18	96	1940	"New" tied records 2*F lower
18-Aug	94	1922				
18-Aug	94	1940				
23-Sep	90	1941	Sep-23	91	1945	"New" tied records 1*F lower
23-Sep	90	1945				
23-Sep	90	1961				
9-Oct	88	1939	Oct-09	89	1939	Same year but "new" record 1*F lower
10-Nov	72	1949	Nov-10	71	1998	"New" record 1*F higher but not in '07 list
12-Nov	75	1849	Nov-12	74	1879	"New" record 1*F higher but not in '07 list
12-Dec	65	1949	Dec-12	64	1949	Same year but "new" record 1*F higher
22-Dec	62	1941	Dec-22	63	1941	Same year but "new" record 1*F lower
29-Dec	64	1984	Dec-29	67	1889	"New" record 3*F lower

PS I also later got the 2002 list of records from “TheWayBackMachine” (I got the rest “realtime.). There were NO new record highs or lows set in those 5 years.
All the numbers came from NOAA.

Gunga Din

Should have made clearer the the comparison is between 2007 records and 2012 records.
Sorry.

Gunga Din

And please note how many new 2012 “records” contradict the 2007 (and 2002) records.

Allan M R MacRae

Nice here, about 30C, sunny with occasional clouds, on the beach in Thailand.

I predicted here last week that in ~6 months the UAH LT anomaly would cool to ~0.0C, based on equatorial ocean cooling. Bundle up!

James in Perth

New record low was also set in Pittsburgh at 17F beating the old record by a healthy 4 degrees!

http://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2017/11/11/record-low-temperature-17-degrees-weather-nov-11/stories/201711110113

observa

I seem to recall we used to call it inclement weather but it’s been a long time.

Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
Nothing to see here…moving right along.

The rules are pretty straightforward:

Cold = Weather
Hot = Climate