From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
Cliff Mass
Some records are more significant than others.
And some records are being used to hype normal temperature variability in unfortunate ways.
Consider yesterday (Sunday). SeaTac Airport beat its daily record (77F0 for that specific date, reaching 81°F.
The Seattle Times puts the 81°F day on the FRONT PAGE! Must be a slow news day.
The Seattle Times story was heavy on hype, with several unfounded statements (see below).
Temperatures scorched past their record high.
Foreshadowing the inevitable summer of drought. (This is total nonsense, by the way).
Should you worry about the RECORD high temperature yesterday? Read on.
Why Monday’s record did not mean much.
Monday’s record high was a daily record.
Daily records are frequently broken because there are so many opportunities to do so (365 chances each year!). Breaking an annual record (the warmest day of the year) is much more significant.
Breaking the daily high-temperature record yesterday was particularly lame.
Why? Because the previous high temperature on that date (77F) was particularly low.
You can see this by looking at the plot (at SeaTac) of observed temperatures (blue lines) and record highs (red shading). The previous record high temperature on that day (77F) was anomalously COLD. The coldest daily high for ANY DAY IN MAY. Even the end of April had warmer record highs.
By the luck of the draw, May 3 never got above 77°F, and thus this was a record ready to be broken. Low-hanging meteorological fruit.
The 81F record is still a low record high in May at SeaTac, cooler than ALL the other record highs for the month.
Breaking this wimply record has little meaning and does not foretell an inevitable summer drought as stated by the Seattle Times reporter (Conrad Swanson).
The latest forecasts are emphatic that there will be a cool down, with light precipitation returning.
The latest European Center Forecast has SeaTac temperatures dropping to normal (highs in the 60s).
Showers will return on Friday and Saturday (see below).
The kind of hype and exaggeration of heat and drought found in the Seattle Times and several amateur YouTube channels is unfortunate.
People are being misinformed and made to worry without cause. Hyping climate change and exaggerating normal climate variability may get more clicks and revenue, but the costs of such misinformation are substantial.
