Added: 11/11 8:30AM PST See update below. Records were set over the past two days at Central Park, but the 144 Year old record still stands.
Dr. Ryan Maue has been tracking the forecasts for the Northeast, and the result is…ah, chilling. Maue says the “polar vortex” is responsible for the exceptionally cold and dry air invading the Northeast USA.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/929224013083238401
He goes on to say that the all time record for New York City of 22°F forecast by morning in NYC would be coldest, earliest temperature on record.
The previous earliest record of reaching 22°F was Nov 13, 1873. The 21°F expected for NYC would be the coldest in 144 years. Further up Long Island, temperatures are expected in the teens.
A record low temperature that lasted 103 years has already been set in Central Park according to the National Weather Service:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
0245 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 27 SET IN 1914.
Source: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=okx
The rest of New York State will be even colder by morning, with temperatures in the teens to hovering near zero.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/929221133689393152
UPDATE: here below is what NWS New York said this morning. Overnight winds kept temperatures from falling to record lows. I’ve updated the title from “144 year earliest cold record for New York City to be broken – new 103 year record low already set” to “103 year record cold low for New York City set” to be accurate going forward.
Two records for cold were broken in the last two days.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
0801 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY
THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 28 LAST SET IN 1933.
Record low temperatures were set at 5 of our 6 climate sites this morning. Temperatures will only rise into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/queX7mE4fY
— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) November 11, 2017
If Joe Bastardi and gang are right then this is just the beginning of a late November and December that will be remembered by many of us in the regions of the NE, East central, and eastern portions of the Midwest. They’re talking temperatures for the first half of this winter that are comparable to the depths of the winter during the 2013-14. During the same period above average precip is expected so I suspect that many more new lows will be set during that period and we in IL, IN, OH have the best shot at a white Christmas we’ve had in some time.
According the Joe the US model isn’t seeing it yet and shows warmer than average temperatures for that period. But the European model is starting to see it.
They are now predicting snow across the eastern US for Thanksgiving.
Depending on how far south, that could be pretty unusual.
SW Florida, BTW, is oasty toasty warm with clear blue skies and extremely perfect weather, and expected to stay this way for the foreseeable future.
But, if there is a big snowstorm in the NE US, Florida will get cold. Always does.
When I was a kid in the late 60’s and early 70’s, every Thanksgiving morning Dad and I and some uncles and my grandfather would go rabbit hunting. I don’t recall any of those times that there wasn’t at least some snow on the ground and I remember one in particular when there was nearly a food of snow.
“Record cold temperatures freeze Chicago”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/record-cold-temperatures-freeze-chicago/ar-BBEPAsn?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp
BTW this truck driver was down in the area a little SW of Macon, GA Wednesday and Thursday this week. Rained all day Thursday and I had my bunk heater on both nights.
This is consistent with the beginning of a little ice age.
In 2014, Dr. John Holdren, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy for the Obama administration said: “a growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern we can expect to see with increasing frequency, as global warming continues.”
The Huffington Post. January 8, 2014
Extreme cold is also explained by global warming.
That’s the most reliable model to date! And it’s a cartoon…
Too funny!!!!
¿ The Sun ?
Data reliable before 1930? I am not convinced.
Firefox won’t connect to that site.
Try solarham.com
Try this:
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml
Is there not pretty good correlation between low solar activity and deeper than normal dips in the “polar vortex”? It looks like 20 our of the last 30 days the sun has been spotless.
http://sidc.oma.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
Too simplistic. A chaotic system such as climate will be ruled by multiple factors and the dominent ones will most likely change over time. It’s not “which one”, it’s which one “at the moment”.
Another extreme weather event, told ya! Global climate discruption now reached New York city, its like the day before yesterday (or was it 1914). Better put some extra coal in the stove.
My garden froze August 23rd in 2015. It meant absolutely nothing, other than I had to trim off frost-bitten plants and hope they would recover. The weather was very warm thereafter until well into October, many of the plants recovered, and I got a normal yeild from the garden. So much for “extreme weather”.
So, how cold did it actually get?
Here in New Hampshire it got so cold, the cows gave ice cream.
Going back this far, you must also subtract the Urban Heat Island effect. So assume the UHI is approx 3 degrees F, then the equivalent temp expected might be -18 F.
Low of 14F here in central Appalachians at a low elevation. Almost certainly a daily record low.
In Manitoba we set an all-time record low on Nov 9 – -26.6C. We are sending this south to share with you. You are welcome. Please send some FL warmth north in return. We are friends – and all that!
Thanks for sharing — it’s nice & clean, but would you please add alittle more CO2 to it?
Low for Central Park in Manhattan was 24*F.
upside: the plumbers will be making a lot of extra Christmas cash.
Plumber? I hardly knew her.
The Solar Output is now into the Solar Cycle Minimum. This will last for 4 to 5 years. Solar UV and EUV are now at the lowest values for a Solar Cycle. You can monitor the amount of Solar UV (EUV) by analyzing the Solar Radio Flux; presently at 68 sfu. The Solar UV(EUV) creates Ozone for the Ozone layer.
The increase Solar UV (EUV) causes the Troposphere to expand providing a warming blanket. The decrease in Solar UV(EUV) causes the Troposphere to contract reducing the insulation effect.
Presently, an Ozone hole is starting to open over the Arctic. The Ozone hole will provide a path for heat to move directly into space.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_toz_nh_f00.png
NOT CO2; it is the Sun.
That looks like mostly ozone mountains…..
Jet stream is looping fairly low across N America at the minute.
http://pamola.um.maine.edu/fcst_frames/GFS-025deg/DailySummary/GFS-025deg_WORLD-CED_WS250.png
That ‘polar vortex’ is something the weather forecasters used to call an Alberta clipper, because it came from that general direction. I think it starts in Siberia and flows over the North Pole. Maybe they should be checking Siberian weather now.
Historically, an Alberta Clipper was an extratropical cyclone that forms in Alberta, moves southeast into the midwest US, then moves eastward into the mid-Atlantic US and/or southern New England. In somewhat recent years, some in the news media have referred to the chilly weather pattern that favors these storms as an Alberta Clipper, before they started saying it was the polar vortex shifting southward.
above,,,,Trebla, “a swing of one or two degrees over a century in the average temperature is to be expected and is certainly not abnormal”
True enough. But finding a swing of one or two degrees where one may not exist is less than normal.
So much so that it could even be sinister.
The raw data rural temperature trend suggests abnormality. 🙂
Is this degrees F or C?
In The Times today reported that many of the alpine ski resorts are opening early following heavy snow falls with more to come. However the same thing happened last year and was followed by “50 days without a snowflake”.
NWS New York NY
✔
@NWSNewYorkNY
Record low temperatures were set at 5 of our 6 climate sites this morning. Temperatures will only rise into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon.
5:15 AM – Nov 11, 2017
What is a climate site when it is at home? I have always assumed that the NWS reporting stations were reporting the weather.
It snowed in my kingdom yesterday, about 0.4 inch. I got my usual ‘first snowfall’ photos. the temperature dropped to 16F Thursday nigh, and that brought us cold WEATHER. The fact that our October WEATHER was wet and warm kept most of the trees full of green leaves, and my neighbor mowed my lawn on Wednesday.
It’s weather, you silly climate-holics. You have no control over it. You can only hope for an accurate forecast (which we got) and enough common sense to dress appropriately. just glad I did all my grocery shopping on Thursday before the cold set in.
Apple cider heated up, with a slice of lemon in it, is good for this kind of weather.
Records.
I have a few vinyl record. And about 30 or so Bakelite records.
Add outside heat, the vinyl records becomes…malleable.
I don’t know about NYC, but here in my little spot on the globe, past records have been mauled.
(Hope this appears correctly)
PS I also later got the 2002 list of records from “TheWayBackMachine” (I got the rest “realtime.). There were NO new record highs or lows set in those 5 years.
All the numbers came from NOAA.
Should have made clearer the the comparison is between 2007 records and 2012 records.
Sorry.
And please note how many new 2012 “records” contradict the 2007 (and 2002) records.
Nice here, about 30C, sunny with occasional clouds, on the beach in Thailand.
I predicted here last week that in ~6 months the UAH LT anomaly would cool to ~0.0C, based on equatorial ocean cooling. Bundle up!
New record low was also set in Pittsburgh at 17F beating the old record by a healthy 4 degrees!
http://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2017/11/11/record-low-temperature-17-degrees-weather-nov-11/stories/201711110113
I seem to recall we used to call it inclement weather but it’s been a long time.
Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
Nothing to see here…moving right along.
The rules are pretty straightforward:
Cold = Weather
Hot = Climate