Guest essay by Eric Worrall
LSE Grantham Institute Communications Director Bob Ward has written a post for the Guardian in which he admits he’s not sure of how anthropogenic CO2 might be impacting hurricanes, but he thinks President Trump should answer for them anyway.
Irma and Harvey lay the costs of climate change denial at Trump’s door
The president’s dismissal of scientific research is doing nothing to protect the livelihoods of ordinary Americans
Bob Ward
Sunday 10 September 2017 09.05 AEST
As the US comes to terms with its second major weather disaster within a month, an important question is whether the devastation caused by hurricanes Harveyand Irma will convince Donald Trump and his administration of the reality of climate change.
The president’s luxurious Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida may escape Irma’s wrath, but with the deaths of so many Americans, and billions of dollars in damage to homes and businesses, the costs of climate change denial are beginning to pile up at the door of the White House.
…
Climate change cannot be blamed for the hurricane count in any single season, nor for the occurrence of any single storm, but there are three ways in which it is making the consequences worse.
First, although the intensity of a hurricane depends on many factors, warmer seawater tends to promote stronger storms. Average sea surface temperatures have been rising, and some parts of the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are warmer than average at the moment, which is a key reason why both Harvey and Irma became so strong so quickly.
Second, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour, which can result in heavier rainfall. That is true not only for hurricanes but also for weaker storms across the world. Even relatively mild tropical storms can cause great damage by dropping huge volumes of rain over one area.
Third, apart from strong winds and heavy rainfall, hurricanes cause damage through storm surges as their winds push seawater ahead of them. Storm surges can inundate extensive low-lying coastal areas, sweeping away everything in their path. Sea levels have been gradually rising globally, making storm surges bigger and deadlier.
Scientists are still not sure about the other ways in which climate change may be impacting hurricanes. The main reason Harvey created such extreme flooding around Houston was that it stalled over the city and dumped rain for several days without moving on. We do not know if climate change played a role in creating the atmospheric conditions that made that happen.
…
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/10/hurricane-irma-harvey-climate-change-trump
The biggest problem for alarmists like Bob is there is no upward trend in hurricane frequency or intensity.
As I noted in a previous post, NOAA doesn’t think the alleged impact of anthropogenic CO2 on storm intensity is detectable. (h/t Benny Peiser)
… It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate). …
Read more: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
Here is what the IPCC says about climate change and hurricanes;
… Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin … In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low …
Read more: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/coverage-of-extreme-events-in-ipcc-ar5.html
Speculative climate models suggest there should be an upward trend. But that predicted projected upward trend has not been observed in the real world.
Many climate alarmists seem to think we should treat climate model projections as equivalent to real world observations. For example, climate scientist Kevin Trenberth said the following back in April this year;
… With climate models as tools, we can carry out “what-if” experiments. What if the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had not increased due to human activities? What if we keep burning fossil fuels and putting more CO2 into the atmosphere? If the climate changes as projected, then what would the impacts be on agriculture and society? If those things happened, then what strategies might there be for coping with the changes?
…
The models are not perfect and involve approximations. But because of their complexity and sophistication, they are so much better than any “back-of-the envelope” guesses, and the shortcomings and limitations are known.
…
The reality is climate models ARE computer driven guesses. Climate models have never been validated in any meaningful scientific sense – an issue which bothers some climate scientists so much, they argue that the definition of science itself must be changed, to accommodate climate models’ lack of scientific falsifiability.
… Climate models are important and complex tools for understanding the climate system. Are climate models falsifiable? Are they science? A test of falsifiability requires a model test or climate observation that shows global warming caused by increased human-produced greenhouse gases is untrue. It is difficult to propose a test of climate models in advance that is falsifiable.
Science is complicated – and doesn’t always fit the simplified version we learn as children. …
Read more: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/10/claim-climate-science-does-not-have-to-be-falsifiable/
I believe it is past time people who attempt to promote computerised guesses as established fact are held to account for their nonsense. The scientific method, falsifiability, is what separates science from superstition. Scaremongering, attempting to lay blame on President Trump for natural disasters on the basis of unproven climate model projections, projections which have no corroboration from real world observations, in my opinion is beneath contempt.
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yeah well he looks the part too
+1, ball headed fart
He’s increasing the albedo of the earth.
@ur momisugly).noaaprogrammer
I’d really like to agree with your 3:12PM post, but, since Mr. Ward’s head seems to be well stuck up into his rear nether region, one would expect very litle albedo change.
address all complaints to:
Bob Ward, Mental Ward for Educated Idi0ts.
Well, you can’t blame Bob Ward for brains intelligence or common sense; but you sure can blame Bob for shrieking hand waving alarmism and false claims.
IYI – Intellectual Yet Idiot a favorite of N. N. Taleb
HIFI is similar to IYI (but cruder)
“Climate change cannot be blamed for the hurricane count in any single season”
Sort of right at the top isn’t it? This seems a repeating pattern with alarmists, the “we’re right, but there’s no structure to our argument”. It just boils down to “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain”. They’re always right, and they don’t need no stinkin’ badges! The people who don’t believe them are just to stupid to see the truth.
That, in a nutshell, is the alarmist creed.
That was my immediate response. He looks just the part for a wannabe go to ‘expert’ for the mania media to go to and put on television and tell us wot’s happening on our planet and why us humans and even the inhuman Donald Trump are responsible.
Apparently there is a market for it and where there’s a market there is way of marketing anything. You have to look the part though and he certainly does. Give him a bit of a beard and ease off on the 100% shave over and he could be a Michael Mann impersonator or even a Gavin Schmidt.
thinkin’ a bit more about it, if you threw in John Cook and Tim Flannery you would have the ultimate 5 piece, lookalike ‘crock’ band. They would make KISS seem pedestrian and mainstream and certainly would not need makeup.
“Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment”
“World class research that makes a difference”
If the climate isn’t actually changing as assumed, what difference will the research make apart from employing the sort of people who would want to be employed at such a place?
(Keeps them off the streets I suppose, concentrates them in a known location, clearly identifies them as two bob hacktivistas, encourages them to have the same ‘look’ (near bald, stupid grin etc and be readily identified….) In other word it really does make adifference.
I withdraw the quesion your honour.
One of Josh’s cartoon pictures of Bob (fast fingers) Ward is in order.
He bought W’s Hurricane making machine and shipped it from the Crawford Ranch to Mara Largo.
Maybe hurricanes are actually progressive Democratic activists…
Generate lots of wind. Leave nothing but destruction in their wake. Sounds about right.
This just gets better and better. PLEASE, Bob Ward, PLEASE keep talking…
Writing like this is why the Guardian now has to BEG for funds to keep publishing their Fake News.
Exactly, this is just a one-way equation now. Does this oxygen thief think that people who have figured out they’ve been lied to will unfigure it out based on this tripe? Whereas others who see the desperation of having to lie harder will join the realists. Not all, of course, with this being the virtue-signaler’s dream come true. Interesting that aol/Huffin and puffinton Post don’t seem to be pushing it so hard, as they are better Fake News merchants and may have noticed this loser of a meme.
In related news, has anyone else noticed the inverse relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide increases and the use of the words “the debate is over”? That bell-shaped curve must be making a mark, because it surely is.
+10
Does the HOME know he is loose? I thought we kept better control of mentally insane.
The green blob is just relying on the cynical comment by H.L. Mencken that no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.
And the IQ of the UK ain’t lookin’ too impressive these days, neither.
I’ve read that a there are a lot of Brits who are seeking German citizenship.
The situation in Briton should be improving soon.
Oh,oh, I knew it. Trump is a God. We have to beseech him for good weather. Well, instead of writing Santa, we have to write Trump for what weather we want. After all, man knows all, and man runs the planet. Ah, the rise of shamanism.
Wrong. It’s Russians who hacked the USA weather generating systems.
Again, somebody beat me to it. I salute you.
Need a faster keyboard.
“…the costs of climate change denial are beginning to pile up at the door of the White House.”
50% of the American public will interpret this as any skeptic and registered Republican being stupid cuz they don’t believe in Natural Climate Change.
The Skeptic Community let the Warmists and their media friends get away with this sleight of hand (it was/is a very devious use of wording).
I agree with Joe Bastardi.
Bob Ward another U.N. climate change lackey?
“…the costs of climate change denial are beginning to pile up at the door of the White House.”
In one sense, he’s right about that.
But the cost of “Climate Change” lies squarely at the feet of the previous occupant.
(PS Don’t leave Congress out of it. The Dem’s and Rino’s resistance to Trump are not stemming Obama’s tide.)
kokoda – AZEK (Deck Boards) doesn’t stand behind its product
September 10, 2017 at 1:19 pm
Last I heard, CC does not rate with Uncle Sam’s offspring, in any poll…..Yes, it’s that bad for the green slime. But Donald is Prez, should tell us something.
As a Houstonian dealing with the aftermath of Harvey, and with family and friends in Florida getting hit by Irma right now, I would like to ask Mr. Ward a question:
At long last, after having to backbone from exaggerated claim after exaggerated claim, do you have no sense of shame?
Mr.Ward is acting like a sanctimonious vampire, feeding off of the suffering of people.
Even as he admits he has no evidence to support his claims and guilt trip, he seeks to use the suffering of millions of people any way.
That behaviour meets the definition of cynical bad faith.
Is this what a major opinion leader if the so-called climate consensus is allowed to do with no resistance from his community?
Soulless people do not have shame.
Sheri, most accurate comment it takes one to know one.
Ron, you know that we all love you.
On the other hand, you’ve heard that absence makes the heart grow fonder. So get lost.
Ron: Originality and cogent comments are not your strong point.
He has no sense of shame – just dementia. People with it tend to repeat themselves over and over again.
hunter,
Well said, any responsible person would not lie and pontificate at the suffering of people attempting to sell fake snake oil merchandise
What a low life, nor respectable media would publish such rubbish.
Trump’s been in office for several months, during which practically nothing has changed WRT energy production. Now Merkel, she’s shut down some and will shut down all of her zero emission powerplants (nuclear) and replace them with coal fired power plants. Are there really people this clueless holding down responsible jobs? Oh, that’s right – he’s in “communications”. That explains a lot. Never seen the inside of a science classroom I would guess. Didn’t qualify for the esteemed universities either, I would also guess.
arthur,
In the CAGW crowd, it’s not what actually happens, it’s how you FEEL about it. If Trump had not withdrawn from the Paris accord, we all know the hurricanes would still have occurred in exactly the same way, but the CAGW people would FEEL that they were not due to climate change.
Perhaps a better question is : “What’s a Bob Ward? “
It’s a wing in a mental hospital where they put Biased Old Bloviators…the B.O.B Ward.
Bobward is nearer to the English policemen.
LSE founded by Fabians (also supporters of eugenics and Stalin) so no surprise really.
“Stalin is a good Fabian” GB Shaw
That’s what they do.
“The end justifies the means.”
So how much did the Grantham Foundation donate to hurricane relief? Compared to various other ’causes’:
http://buyingbias.org/tag/grantham-foundation
Not a lot from what I can see – but Bob is on a mission – anything to stop Trump – remember Lord Stern and his ilk – all part of the Grantham lot – ‘SAVING the PLANET’ from co2. So the brown stuff gets piled at the white house door. Charming.
?w=640
Good animation.
It’s just the same old Ludacris garbage.
So, in other words, if President Trump had not pulled out of the Paris Accord and was all in on fighting climate change, these destructive hurricanes would not have occurred, or at least would not have been his fault. We are watching insanity personified with these deranged progressives. They lack the self-awareness to even begin to see what moonbats they present themselves as. I’ve never seen anything like it and it only continues to escalate.
By pulling out of Paris and its demand for unlimited US dollars, Trump has ensured that the US Treasury has the funds to enable the US citizens affected to restore their lives and properties. Otherwise it would have gone to unaccountable, often dubious, politicians and entrepreneurs abroad .
Why does the White House not point out that obvious fact?
Trump has only been in office for 8 months, and only for the US. Just how much extra plant food could have been pumped into the atmosphere during that time?
My cup of coffee went cold before I could finish it. I guess I can blame Trump for that too.
/snark
No it is “global warming”. I’m not buying into this climate change/weirding thing.
Nope, that was a polar vortex.
Bob Ward is a total fracking retard.
Looks like the Anglican Church branch of Protestantism (Calvinists) are rushing to the forefront to blame humans, individually, on the acts of nature. Of course the members of the Anglican Church will overlook their own membership, like Tony Blair, and blame those they deem inferior and in need of a good and bloody old fashion Crucifixion.
On Monday, young school children will report to their teachers, “Trump Ate My Homework!” and spare the poor dogs of their usual beatings.
Ha hahahaa
John Podesta’s group has for almost 2 decades worked behind the scenes to get Progressive-leaning Episcopalian church laity members into influential laity positions to the attend annual US Anglican (Episcopal) church congresses. From those influential positions they forced the church clergy to adopt favorable CC positions along with other progressive social causes.
It was a calculated, considered take-over by Liberal ideology on a wide range of issues. It will ultimately be the death of the US Episcopalian Church.
The World Council of Churches is also a member of the UNEP – Geneva Environment Network.
UNEP – Geneva Environment Network, Est. 1999
World Council of Churches (WCC)
http://www.environmenthouse.ch/?q=en/green_guide/world-council-churches
The Lutheran World Federation (LWF)
http://www.environmenthouse.ch/?q=en/green_guide/lutheran-world-federation
Information on these organizations at above websites.
One of the reasons why the Episcopalians are a rapidly dying congregation.
Duh, Tony B Liair is a catholic.
In 2010, The Tablet named him as one of Britain’s most influential Roman Catholics.
My opinion of the ‘man’ is not printable.
If Bob Ward was calling on Pres. Trump to throw virgins into volcanoes to appease the gods, it would make about as much sense as his post in the Guardian. How does the President’s attitude toward climate change cause natural disasters? Is there any evidence that U.S. emissions have gone up significantly since Trump became President? I doubt they have, but even if they did, how could they generate hurricanes so quickly when 12 previous years of increased CO2 failed to do so?
These people aren’t interested in science. They’re political henchmen interested in spreading blame and superstition. If we lived in the past, these are the people who would be demanding human sacrifices to appease the gods after just one season of crop failure. We can’t just stand by and do nothing, they reason. A crisis demands that we do something, even if our actions harm more people than doing nothing.
“The president’s dismissal of scientific research is doing nothing to protect the livelihoods of ordinary Americans”
Wha? Never mind if this guy is on the same planet as us. Is he in the same universe? What “scientific research” is he even babbling about? “Protecting the livelihoods”? Huh? Most idiotic red herring I’ve seen in a while.
Here is a summary of The Climate scientists belief –
1) We Got no emperical Data showing an increase in hurricane activity over the last 150 years – all of which was during a period of warming.
2) Even though we got no emperical data of an increase in hurricane activity during the last 150 years of warming – we can confidently state that our models predict more intense hurricanes.
3) Our models are more accurate than any real time data because we are the smartest climate scientists
Let ‘im talk… (the more they talk, the more they lose at the polls)
From ‘acts of God’ to ‘acts of Man’ to ‘acts of a man’, Trump.
I propose from now on all hurricanes should be called Donald, Hurricane Donald 1, Hurricane Donald 2, etc.
Bob Ward is right. How do I know this? Because I’m privy to highly secret information, but because I’m just as bad at keeping a secret as my older sister – except her own – I just can’t resist telling you. Ready?
Trump is a God! Yes, Donald Trump is actually a God. Lest you think I’m kidding just ask yourself; could a mere mortal have caused two such devastating hurricanes – one right after the other? Of course not. Think about it, only a god could do that. Therefore, if Trump is responsible for Harvey and Irma, and we happen to know this because people much smarter than ourselves tell us he is, well then, the vonclusion is inevitable – Donald Trump is a God!
For all of us: scream it from the rooftops; in the valleys and plains; in the mountains; on the seas; in Hollywood; in D.C.; on the college campuses – Trump is a God!
Mr. Ward is the poster child for green slime.