In spite of claims that polar bear populations are facing pressure from loss of Arctic summer sea ice, their numbers have in fact grown. Video follows.
Guest essay by Dr. Susan Crockford
For more than ten years, we’ve endured the shrill media headlines, the hyperbole from conservation organizations, and the simplistic platitudes from scientists as summer sea ice declined dramatically while polar bear numbers rose.
Now, just in time for International Polar Bear Day, there’s a video that deconstructs the scare. It runs about 8 minutes, written and narrated by me, produced by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.
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Yeah, but what about the Arctic penguins?
Arctic penguins were hunted to extinction in the early 1800s. They were not related to Antarctic penguins but they looked surprisingly similar and they were the first birds to be called penguins.
http://zidbits.com/2013/11/did-penguins-once-inhabit-the-northern-hemisphere/
Now that is certainly aukward now, isn’t it?
Welsh whalers when they saw Great Auks called them “Pen Gwyn Fawr” , big white heads, as opposed to the local Auks common around the coast of Wales which were much smaller. Great Auks had white faces which accounts for their name. The Pen Gwyn name rapidly mutated into Pen guin and was applied to similar birds in Antarctic when sailors first visited those regions. However, they generally look the same, but do not have white heads.
Welsh is still spoken in Paragonia which resulted in a visit from Patagonian Penguins to an Eisteddfod in Wales. Croeso nôl! ( or welcome back !)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/32857157
Auks were not, are not and apparently will not ever be penguins.
Kip,
It is the Antarctic “penguins” which are not now, never have been and never will be true penguins. They are spheniscids, of the Order Sphenisciformes, Family Spheniscidae and modern Genera Aptenodytes, Eudyptes, Eudyptula, Megadyptes, Pygoscelis and Spheniscus, plus a number of extinct genera.
The scientific name of the great auk is Pinguinus impennis. It was a true penguin. It belongs to Family Alcidae (auks) in the Order Charadriiformes.
Bring back the great auks!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/08/19/plot-hatched-to-reintroduce-extinct-great-auk-to-british-shores/
Opus had image issues as well:
http://www.gocomics.com/bloomcounty/2013/06/07
Kip, just wait till they are homogenised, they can be anything then!
There are so few polar bears because most of them swam to the Antarctic after reading about the 150.000 trapped penguins there (h/t Chris Turney) which looked like “Gefundenes Fressen” as the Germans say; easy pickings. After the Great Penguin Eating most of the polar bears died from over-eating and / or overheating because of the rapidly warming Antarctic. That’s why there are so few polar bears & penguins.
They should have stopped swimming when they reached Sable Island. If there is a place in need of polar bears this is it.
400 estimated seal pups birthed in 1963 which has increased to 62,054 in 2010.
“Grey seal pup production in 2014 is estimated to be 93,000 (95% CI=48,000 to 137,000) animals, with a total population of 505,000 (95% CI=329,000 to 682,000). Sable Island production is estimated to
account for about 77% of the estimated total number of pups born in 2014.”
http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/ResDocs-DocRech/2014/2014_037-eng.pdf
I figured it was probably something like that.
interesting post sc,and some people wonder why certain cod populations are increasing slower than others. an extra 62 k every year seals may have something to do with it. marine biologists also ignore that some of the huge populations of cod in the past could well have been a result of high levels of predation on seals by man.
Too late mate, they’ve already died out because you won’t find any there now!!!! Just ask the conservationists! (Sarc off!)
Heheheh. YEAH!
Just as I suspected. “Soylent Green is people”
Excellent video with a lot of good data. Would like to have seen a two or three paragraph synopsis with a few charts, thought, for us ADD readers.
For ADD readers pictures are best
In the picture above they are actually clearing the KELP off the wreck of Franklin’s ship the HMS Erebus. Arctic waters are very nutrient rich and sunlight poor. Less sea ice means a more robust food chain where plankton feeds shellfish which feed seals which feeds polar bears.
The 100% ice cover during summer and winter that the Global Warmists pray for would instead result in the extinction of pretty much everything. You won’t read that anywhere.
2 corrections…
1) You will read that here at WUWT
2) Warmists actually pray for the ice to melt so that their careers and cash flows can continue
Good news for the Polar bears.
Another climate warming scare bites the dust.
Bad news for the seals. ≺sniff≻
So global warming will kill seals? God I have to get some abstracts together for funding…….
If people bother to spend time researching known Polar Bear eating habits, the idea that low sea ice levels being a threat to the Bears, would lose steam.
There has been lots of work on polar bear feeding habits. I have known some of the people studying polar bears and they are wonderful people and competent researchers. They can tell you things about polar bears that you never thought to ask.
When faced with the question of what happened to polar bears during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the best the researchers can do is to deny that it happened.
Everyone, no matter how competent, can suffer from cognitive biases and blind spots. Experts tend to believe other experts. When a Nobel Prize* winning expert like Dr. Michael Mann tells them that the MWP didn’t exist, they will believe him. Thus, they don’t have to worry about what did happen during the MWP when there was less summer sea ice. If they faced that question they would save themselves embarrassment.
*[sarc]
what happened to polar bears during
===========
what about the Holocene optimum when the arctic was pretty much ice free for 4 thousand years? why didn’t the polar bears go extinct then?
I think they float, too, often.
Trouble is, the average Dude on the Train doesn’t spend time “researching” (or indeed, reading) anything, they just believe whatever the “news” feed on Facebook or whatever tells them. The “cat ladies” believe anything the WWF or Greenpeace magazines say (Send us money or these animals will DIE!) It would be hilarious if it weren’t so pathetic. When I say “carbon” is not a problem in need of solving, most “nice” people still look at me like I’ve got three heads.
Is it possible to ever recover from fake polar bear news if the official all clear signal is not given by Facebook and HuffPo? This will be a good test of media power?
A most interesting article and video.
Hmmm … let’s hope for the extinction of … greenpiss.
Thank you Dr. Keep up the excellent work.p
Enjoyed your new book on polar bears, also. Highly recommended to all here.
Thanks! However, not everyone is a reader and this video may reach an audience that a science-based thriller of a novel or a non-fiction book will not.
That said, there is something about a solid volume you can hold in your hand, pull off the shelf to share with others, lend to your friends and relatives, or look up a reference.
Sometimes, you need the easy-to-read format with all the references.
“Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change” has that, along with a 2 page, bullet-point summary and short (2 page) conclusions.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1541139712/
And need I point out that the royalties do help a little to offset all the time I put into trying to keep this field from being swamped by hype.
Susan
The crisis or ursine obesity? …… 😉
or -> of
An excellent video. Unfortunately you’ll never get a corrupt organisation like Greenpeace to change its ways. There are too many high salaries at stake and too many useful idiots to keep on side.
Phillip,
The point is not to get Greenpeace (or WWF, or Polar Bears International) to change their ways.
The aim is to inform those who simply have not heard that polar bear numbers are up, even though the summer sea ice in 2007 reached what the experts said would be devastating levels – and stayed there.
Since 2007, polar bears have been living through their dire sea ice future but they thrived.
Model busted, assumptions busted, confidence in polar bear experts busted.
Time to re-examine the ESA listing with an independent team from a range of disciplines, based on the models and predictions that got them put on the list in the first place.
Dr. Susan Crockford, zoologist
Susan,
I agree with you entirely, but how do you get the information out to the general public? The MSM won’t give this any coverage. The so-called BBC will ignore it and continue to tell the public that the Arctic will soon be ice-free and the polar bears will then be gone. The GWPF has an outstanding list of expert advisers and trustees and produces some excellent articles and videos, but none of its output reaches the general public.
Dr Phillip Bratby, retired physicist
Phillip,
Actually, in 2015 a number of MSM outlets (in the UK anyway) picked up my Polar Bear Day essay “Twenty Good Reasons Not to Worry About Polar Bears” – even the BBC gave it a mention on their 6am news. I
t got so much attention, in fact, that the UK’s rapid response team at Carbon Brief was called into action.
http://polarbearscience.com/2015/03/13/polarbearscience-has-been-carbon-briefed-success-at-last/
So the word does get out eventually; its just hard to know what exactly will attract their attention.
And FYI, nothing to do with the above, but here in Victoria it has been **snowing like crazy** for more than an hour.
Environment Canada says to expect 2 cm at the airport: the record greatest snowfall for 27 February (1941-2013) was 3.0 cm in 1976. At this rate, we may beat the record.
Last year, it was truly spring in late January. Go figure.
“Time to re-examine the ESA listing with an independent team from a range of disciplines”
The expression “draining the swamp” comes to mind. As it does for many areas of climate “science”.
With respect. That’s hardly “snowing like crazy” 😉
I’m a little south and east of you on Whidbey island (assuming you mean Victoria, BC), and an inch (2.5cm) is nothing. Maybe you meant 20cm?
Susan, Having lived in Victoria during that 1976 winter I suggest you stay of the roads until it is melted. No one there has a clue how to drive on a snowflake for pete’ sake ( I worked on ski hills for 3 years and lived in Victoria for one year and fled back the the OK Valley as soon as I could! ( The constant wind was another factor but it is a beautiful city none the less).
One simple way to get the news out is to share the video url on your personal Facebook account and on other available online media.
Thank you for keeping it real Dr Crockford. Some theories die hard even with mounting proof against them when politics take precedence over science. We still have useful idiots parading around in polar bear suits to decry CAGW and they aren’t being questioned.
It’s how the kale-gulping Earnestly Concerned social climbers virtue-signal their “arrival” at Upper Middle Middling–the Prius with the Snowflake U. sticker in the back window, right next to the WWF sticker and the one that says “Coexist” in symbols.
More WINNING! It’s not getting old. Great job Dr Crockford! The eco loons are in full retreat
Yet the false meme will live on for years in the age of social media edgeacation.
Are they turning away donations for this fake news at WWF etc.?
It will be difficult for the green blob to give up their major sources of donations: the three “P’s” – polar bears, penguins and pandas. It has worked for decades.
What about whales? I remember “save the whales” was the warcry of every greenie, back in the early 80’s at least.
It has made some brief resurgences which have piqued public interest, but mostly I think that it was the fun of watching million-dollar, carbon-fibre, greenie-boats getting pulverised by steel, Japanese, whaling ships.
Everyone likes a little carnage.
Unfortunately, due to Trump Derangement Syndrome, the Left are getting carpal tunnel writing checks to the Green Blob dot-orgs. right now. The ones with money, that is, that aren’t pajama boys and trigglypuffs living in Mummy’s basement.
Goldrider
I cannot thank you enough for inspiring me to look up “trigglypuff” in the urban dictionary – the brief video is just spectacular. Do not watch this with any liquid in your mouth (I’ve warned you):
link: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=trigglypuff
Where’s Griffie?
Griff only cares about the ice, not the people or animals that live there!
He pulled a Crockford, for Jim Rockford beating a hasty 180 degree retreat. Well, almost funny.
Meanwhile Antarctic sea ice at a record low and Arctic sea ice at record low for this time of year. Not been much mention of that here.
Because as of today, neither of your ‘record’ assertions is true.
He he, chuckle, chuckle…
And what has ‘truth’ got to do with anything? It is only impressions and feeling which have any meaning! [sarc for those requiring explanation]
Have look on the sea ice pages under references you can see the menu at the top of ever page. Nothing hidden here. Make sure you have your eyes open when reading
The polar bears are sleeping now, y’see. And please watch the video, then you’ll learn that most seal hunting is in spring / early summer, not at the time of minimum sea ice in early September.
Simon,
It does depend on what data set you are looking at, so it helps to be specific.
I posted a tweet earlier this morning showing that NSIDC’s interactive graph is showing 2017 and 2006 on 26 Feb (latest available) are pretty much the same. Polar bear number did not decline due to sea ice changes in 2006.
A little less ice than average at this time of year has no effect on polar bear health or survival.
However, too much thick ice close to shore can be devastating – as it was in the Southern Beaufort the springs of 1974-1976 and again in 2004-2006, when the population size dropped by about 50%.
Too much at this time of year at the local level (too thick, too compacted with few open leads) is a problem because it reduces breathing area for ringed and bearded seals – so they go off somewhere else to have their pups and leave polar bears with little to eat.
This phenomenon is well-documented in the literature and I’ve written about it often.
Thank you Dr. Crockford – In comments under several earlier WUWT articles, I’ve alluded to the idea that since ice does not support photosynthesis, Polar Bears must find their food sources at the edge of the ice.
Since Polar Bears have been exhaling CO2 over the winter months, they’ve lost body mass and need to replenish this lost carbon. Ice does not support a source for this carbon. Bears leverage the extraction of carbon from atmospheric CO2 by phytoplankton which then is consumed up the food chain to the seals.
Carbon Dioxide is the base of the Polar Bear’s food chain (same for all carbon based life forms).
Polar Bears consume seals
seals consume fish
fish consume phytoplankton
phytoplankton consume CO2
More CO2 helps Polar Bears. All of the carbon in all Polar Bears was extracted from atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.
I watched the live webcam from Churchill, MB this morning, and saw an adult and a cub walking around and eating.
Antarctic sea ice hardly exists. Arctic sea ice is almost solely a function of winds. The earth turns beneath the ice and bumps it along out between Greenland and Europe, and Greenland/Newfoundland. Good winds mean there is very little ice. Everything but seals do better then. Bears do much better because there’s nowhere for seals to hide.
There were multiple instances of people bringing submarines to the surface right under the North Pole in the late 50s early 60s.
You’ve only been studying the arctic 20 years. I’ve been studying it 50. You simply don’t have the first clue about what a healthy arctic ecosystem looks like.
Here’s a hint: warm. Yeah that’s why this is considered an AVERAGE optimum period in earth history.
Because IT ISN’T WARMER.
There’s nothing unusual about either poles’ ice conditions.
I have seen the pictures of subs surfacing in late winter at the North Pole from 50 years ago. Did the heat rejected from the subs condensing steam help melt the ice?
It really is sad the way the trolls can’t tell the difference between weather and climate.
There’s always a big loss of ice after an El Nino.
MarkW
“There’s always a big loss of ice after an El Nino.”
I call BS? Reference please.
Be a big boy and do your own research Simon, instead of demanding it from the grownups (and then ignoring it).
“Be a big boy and do your own research Simon, instead of demanding it from the grownups (and then ignoring it).”
Ha ha, what a joke? I’m not the one making the fictional claim.
It’s summer there. Like, the Sun . . . ? /sarc
There have been whole posts on recent sea ice here. You ought to read the blog before making such blatantly erroneous assertions.
Antarctic sea ice is about at the same level now as in 1997, another El Nino year, plus 2006, 1993, 1984, 1980 and a number of other years that were close:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
WWF Norway still runs its “Polar Bear Godfather” campaign, where you can “save the polar bears” with a small donation…No, don’t send seal meat.
http://www.wwf.no/fadder/isbjorn/
“Give the polar bears a future”
Thank you Dr. Crockford. Our whole family enjoyed your latest book!! Highly recommended reading for all who find the Polar Bear a fascinating creature!!
Link; https://www.amazon.ca/Polar-Bear-Facts-Myths-Science/dp/1541123336/ref=sr_1_fkmr1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1488223056&sr=8-1-fkmr1&keywords=Dr+Susan+Crockford
Thanks David! Much appreciated feedback.
Polar bears do well when there’s no ice because the seals are forced to stay near shore and it’s a slaughter.
More ice = better for seals = not as good for bears.
Ice can multiply many times, the amount of space a bear has to cover to hunt the same seal.
Seals must sleep. When they can spread out along the ice for miles and miles it’s INFINITELY harder to find them easily.
On the other hand when there’s nothing but a gravel bar to park on – not so much.
E Mendes,
I don’t know where you get information like this “Polar bears do well when there’s no ice because the seals are forced to stay near shore and it’s a slaughter.”
A statement like that may seem logical to you but I’ve seen nothing at all in the extensive literature on seals or polar bears to indicate that it is true.
Ringed seals especially do well with less ice because they do most of their feeding for the year during the open-water period: a longer ice-free period means they can feed longer and pack on more fat for the coming winter and more females are able to produce healthy pups the following spring. More seal pups in spring = more food on the ice for polar bears.
Bearded and ringed seals give birth onshore in the Sea of Okhotsk but there are no polar bears there and as far as we know, there never has been.
The seals that spend time on the ice during the summer are primarily adult bearded and harp seals. Those adult seals know to watch out for bears and also, the broken ice affords them many escape route. So a bear may stalk seals in summer but they are not likely to be successful very often. Some bears, of course, may learn how to do this well with a few practiced techniques but in general, most bears out on the ice during the summer eat few seals.
i love your work dr crockford . clear concise and to the point, you have that knack of being able to explain things in easy to understand terms to the layman without losing the important detail of the topic. keep up the good work.
Susan, “Bearded and ringed seals give birth onshore in the Sea of Okhotsk but there are no polar bears there and as far as we know, there never has been.”
I guess those seals are smarter than we give them credit for.
Dr I don’t know what you are trying to say. You basically repeated what I said. When there’s less ice, it makes polar bears’ main food healthier and more well fed, therefore more plentiful,in the first place.
With less surface area to haul out on and have young.
It doesn’t get any simpler.
There are more of them,
and fewer places to hide.
Particularly for the young which are legendarily unable to defend themselves, life without a lot of ice is short and ends violently with bears simply killing the young, eating the fat, and leaving the rest, as a way of life.
When there are many ring seals on a small amount of ice the slaughter is substantial.
The problem is getting the facts in front of people. As mentioned up thread the BBC wouldn’t touch facts like those Dr. Crockford presents here with a disinfected bargepole. I wonder if we can get Chris Booker at The Telegraph do do a piece on this and at least mock the BBC for their failure to report the facts if not shame them into some actual journalism for a change?
As Paul Homewood has posted the video at https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/02/27/as-polar-bear-numbers-continue-to-increase-gwpf-calls-for-re-assessment-of-endangered-species-status/#comments, there is a good chance that Christopher Booker will pick up on it.
Grrff!
Griffy!
Griff, we’re waiting to see if you attempt another kneecapping of Dr Crockford. And we’ve noticed you’ve recently added Dr Curry to your list of hits. Of course, since you post anonymously, we really have no idea about your qualifications (I mean other than you’re a weak troll).
I know this is a personal question, but do you ever pick on anybody but women?
“I know this is a personal question, but do you ever pick on anybody but women?”
Ooooh ! That’s gotta hurt !!
I bet this hurts even more !!
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/02/27/house-urges-epa-to-rescind-veto-on-alaskan-mine-despite-local-opposition.html
+ 1.
I post anonymously for several reasons but I am happy to state that I am a Master Mariner Foreign Going with 5 years command time and then 22 years as an estuary Pilot.
So how about it, Griff?
What ARE your qualifications?
Griff, like Tony McCleod, does not have the testicular fortitude to debate with the good Dr. Crockford because he, and everyone else who has witnessed these two in recent month fail time again, any challenge to Dr. Crockford’s qualifications, abilities, knowledge and experience on the subject will be severely dealt a blow.
Perhaps the hypothesis that life adapts should be explored? Not every species is a special snowflake but those with a belief in CAGW are most definitely of that class.
Nature’s joke is on us. When the “eye” of Hurricane Sandy came by, the wild turkeys and deer walked out of the woods and began foraging like nothing happened. My horses had a good roll and did the same. Meanwhile the radio is shrieking about “all of Manhattan flooded and without power up to 34th Street, disruption and chaos, oh the HUMANITY!!!” Now who’s smarter, the animals or us? I think we’ve now complicated our lives to the point where adaptation will be extremely costly. The Indians who once lived here would have shrugged, moved the wigwam uphill 15 feet, and gone and shot a deer for supper! 😉
How do mother-bears manage to den down over winter and nourish their cubs before and after birth adequately? Are the cubs a hindrance in the happy times of seal hunting in the spring?
They lay on so much fat in spring, summer and fall that a human would die of lipid poisoning. Why the bears don’t is an area of physiological study.
They do die–at about 18 years!
Sow ready to den up for the winter:
Would be dangerously morbidly obese if human.
Hindrance or no, the cubs need to learn how to hunt from mama bear, and the spring hunt is the best time for schoolin’.
Any Greenie over-concerned with polar bears should go try petting one.
That’s the explanation! Decreasing ice -> more scare stories -> more green tourism -> more unfortunate incidents -> well-fed bears. Given the number of scare stories, it’s a wonder the bear population isn’t higher
Future eaten alive person:
Samoyed on steroids? At least that’s what he thought … until ….
I hope that bear is a vegetarian, I have read too many stories like this “Man gets eaten by his “lifelong” friends his lions”
Joel
Strange you should mention that. While reading about polar bears on the web, I found this gem:
“Are polar bears aggressive?
Unlike grizzly bears, polar bears are not territorial. Although stereotyped as being voraciously aggressive, they are normally cautious in confrontations, and often choose to escape rather than fight. Satiated polar bears rarely attack humans unless severely provoked.”
I would have guessed polar bears rarely attack humans because most polar bears never see a human. However, I strongly concur greenies should test this polar bear behavior.
‘Satiated polar bears rarely attack humans unless severely provoked.’
Yep, That’s the money quote right there – ‘satiated’. Polar bears are the only true predators of the bruin clan and will quite readily hunt humans, even if they’ve never encountered them before.
But if they’re ‘satiated’ – as in ‘full’ – there’s no need.
Joel
Some preditors (lions) will kill – even if satiated – if taunted by what looks like prey. Yet another behavior greenies can test for…
“Oooh, dessert!”
I understand that Polar bears evolved in the UK and the most recent skull was about twelve thousand years old. Might be of interest.
Polar bears originated in SE Alaska:
http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/100401_polarbears
The Irish polar bear fossils and DNA to which you refer show that hybridization with female grizzlies occurred before polies disappeared from the British Isles, not that polies originated there:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/wildlife/8622987/Polar-bears-traced-back-to-Britain.html
Polar bears biggest danger is human crafted bullets . Over 30.000 polar bears after 500 per year are shot
or otherwise killed by the most dangerous predator on earth …us .