Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Climate doomsday stories are now such a joke, even Mainstream Media can’t help having a pop.
CHRISTMARS CHEER Humanity DOOMED because Earth is destined to become lifeless red planet just like Mars, scientist warns
Our home world is losing its atmosphere with every second that passes, meaning that every living being is in peril.
EARTH is slowly turning into a barren red world just like Mars and it spells DOOM for every living being on the planet.
That’s the terrifying warning from a top scientist who wants our species to wake up to the grim fate awaiting us.
Anjali Tripathi, an astrophysicist at Harvard University, has spoken out about a “frightening” natural effect called atmospheric escape.
In a recent TED talk, she said that 400 pounds of hydrogen and almost 6.6 pounds of helium escape from Earth into space with every single minute that passes.
Eventually, this will cause such a massive change in the makeup of Earth’s atmosphere that life will be unable to cling on any longer and the surface will be become blood red and barren.
…
“Our hydrogen from water breaking down will escape into space more rapidly, leaving us with a dry, reddish planet.”
Happily, we have a few billion years left until this grim scenario plays out, so we’ve plenty of time to prepare for the inevitable apocalypse.
Merry Christmas everyone.
…
Merry Christmas from Australia.
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The Denver Post says we’re doomed now. http://www.denverpost.com/2016/12/23/a-tumultuous-year-in-climate-change/
And a New Year’s quote for the Climate Hu$tlers and all Data Twisters:
MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPARSIN.
… “Mene”: God has numbered the days of your {control} and brought it to an end.
“Tekel”: You have been weighed on the scales
and found wanting.
“Peres”: Your {organization} is divided and given
to {the Science Realists}.
Daniel 5:25-27.
And for Eric and his family in Australia,
“Australian Jingle Bells”
MERRY CHRISTMAS from the United States of America!
(where “it’s the most wonderful time — in 8 years!” 🙂 )
Thank you, so much, for all the hard work you put into writing so many fine articles for WUWT!
Janice
Janice, LOL. Merry Chrimbo to you too.
🙂
Like politics, science seems to be losing it’s males much faster than the earth is losing it’s hydrogen. Both fields are taking on a decidedly post normal character. Can we chalk this up to an increase in nurture? An increasing X/Y chromosome ratio? It definitely is fueling the neomarxbrothers politics which got it’s foothold in Europe, but is spreading rapidly in the west. Don’t look for it to happen in the East, but that is a separate story.
Such a factor may explain the rise in nanny governance and at the same time, the growing anxiety and hysteria over climate change and the precautionary principle for which the solution is strengthening nanniness to take care of we helpless folk. I’ve definitely seen a steady increase in women going into climate science.
A few short years ago, it was pretty much all males and the stuff was all very boring, but it gradually it got noticed that a rising level of alarm loosened up more cash and by the turn of the millennium, women began to detect a opportunities for nurturing that they couldn’t resist. Men climate scientists still do all the fudging and fiddling with the temperature, sea level and ice data to keep the feed hoppers full of cash and in a way, I expect this to continue because although women might smother you with rules regulations, make you take your vitamins, wear a helmet and all that precautionary stuff, they still may be a bit fastidious about openly doctoring data and knowingly lying and cheating in their studies like men do. After all, the vast majority of folks in jail only have one X-chromosome, too.
We always had throngs of women making up the protest wing of climate science, but with men noticeably flagging, they’ve been taking the plunge. You don’t have to know a lot. There is one linear formula cast in stone and they have their own statistical methods that can make a hockey stick out of whatever data numbers you have. Anyway this is enough to put up for peer review for now.
I should put up sarc tags and trigger thingys to prevent being hauled into court, if for no other reason, for belonging to the only group not included in “diversity”
I think it’s like this, Mr. Pearse. There have always been high calibre female scientists. They just got tired of not being heard of. Like the woman who worked with Watson and Crick. You know…. what’s her name…. (I don’t even remember it).
So! They went into climate “science” because they were in great demand to be the “would I lie?” spokespersons for it. They got affirmative actioned into the front of the photo op because, to this day, most people are much more easily fooled by a female liar than a male. The average person (and even exceptional people like you (smile), to wit, your example above of women being less likely to be data twisters) believes women tell lies less frequently than men. I do not know if this is actually true. People think it is. Look at all the women the Obama administration had out there lying about Benghazi.
Thus, with little innocent Granny’s outfit on, the Big Bad Wolf could better fool people.
Not fooling anyone who takes a close look at the data, however. “Why Granny, what big teeth you have?!”
(Re: the high calibre female scientists — only half-serious, there — many, many, are still out there silently working hard at doing science — Verity Jones, Jennifer Marohasy, and Susan Crockford are just three of them.)
Dear Janice, I was hoping I wouldn’t have to compete with you in the wit department, but there you go again, and with such ease and in a few minutes. I’ve been working on mine for about 20 years… oops a little single X-chromosome lie slipped out, it was longer than that. Anyway, it took all that to get your attention, so I’ll just say Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and of course to all WUWT folks and many many more. I’ve been a little giddy I’m afraid when it became clear that all this catastrophic climate was going to get Trumped.
Hi, Gary,
Aw, thank you, but, really, you are in a different (higher) class: EDUCATED wit. I have native wit (and my own education, but only about 1/5 of it was technical).
You win in the courtesy department, that’s for sure! Thanks to your comment about women in general, I will walk up the road of life in the decades to come with my chin up and a smile and think, “I am beautiful!”
Merry Christmas and yes, indeed, “it’s the most wonderful time in 8 years!”
Janice
How much hydrogen and helium does the Earth collect from the solar wind every day?
Perhaps tens of ounces. We are, after all, being hit by what amounts to a very good vacuum.
Now, over a few billion years, that adds up.
But the He now being drilled will NOT ever be replaced, and – once vented from its underground rocks will be lost forever to space.
Helium lost from the earth can be made good from the vast reserves of the element on the moon – if the Germans haven’t got there first.
Happy Christmas!
We’ll be making new stuff once we have nuclear energy. Just make a list of elements you need and we will be commanding this earth ship until the sun does its final show. It turns out that the alchemists were onto something.
We could end up with a few comets from the Oort cloud hitting us, replenishing our water, over the next billion years.
Have they modelled that?
Based on their fanatical belief in global warming alarmism, about 30% of humanity is doomed to die from acute stupidity.
Merry Freaking Christmas!
Merry christmas to you Doc.
Can I ask you a question?
When two devices are in bluetooth contact, is their contact considered proximal or occlusal? If they lose their signal is it considered an open contact?
Happy new year too!
lol
Hm. Over 15 hours. Like pulling teeth to get an answer from that guy. 🙂
Looks like the Arctic is going to have a record high temperature for Christmas. What’s the excuse this time I wonder? The thing that strikes me is that it may not be quite melting, but it is not freezing. Low refreeze means less ice to melt come the Northern summer. It looks like we may be living in ‘interesting times’ next year if the ice does melt.
Have a great Christmas and blessed New Year, Nadolig Llawen a Blwyddyn Newydd Da i pawb.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Gareth while you are on that page look at the history going back to 1958 and you will see that this years ice level is normal having happened before many many times.
Hi Matt, I did look and they are not comparable. In 1958 there were occasional spikes in low temperature as well as high. This year the spikes are only upward, remarkably so and staying high. Look at the charts again and imagine the high temperatures are losses in finance, it becomes clearer then what the difference is. And this is a trend, not weather.
Gareth, don’t forget to look at the ‘bottom’ the planet too. If global warming is truly global, why is the ice trends in opposite directions between Arctic and Antarctic? If your answer is natural variability, please explain why the arctic is only warming due to AGW sources.
Increasing of 1.8% / decade.
It’s a good point Duncan, I don’t think anyone really has a definite idea of why the Antarctic behaves differently from the Arctic. Anyone who says they do is not being entirely honest. But the Arctic is disappearing. That is a fact. Grounded theory, solid observation, and that is what I was referring to. We cannot just ignore it and claim it is within reasonable variation.
Funny, current satellite imaging shows the Arctic to be precisely where it has been for many millennia. And covered with ice. Imagine that.
Gareth
There’s a bit of zero sum game going on here. Record cold in North America and Eurasia, a white Christmas in Jerusalem, but above average temps in the Arctic? Conservation of energy.
Happy Christmas!
Thanks for demonstrating that climate change kooks seem permanently confused between “weather” and “climate”. The climate impact of the recent sea ice levels has been zilch. The weather impacts of the sea ice levels has been zilch. The impact on the fevered imaginations of the climate consensus kooks has been spectacular. Feliz Navidad.
And it still won’t rise up to freezing! We are all gonna die in a fiery flood, I tells ya!
Happy CHRISTMAS to Anthony, Eric and all contributors to this informative site.
Without thoroughly checking the figures but what I see here is another example of supposedly educated people wearing blinkers (and being chronically depressed) while huffing and puffing themselves up into something they’re not.
What is the solar wind made of, did I remember right that El Sol is blowing out a billion tons per second, doesn’t some of that make it into earth’s atmosphere? What is all that stuff pouring in at the poles and making aurora(s)?
Aren’t there 100 tons per day of ordinary space dust falling in and didn’t one theory (at least one) claim all the water here on Earth came from comets anyway?
Its one of those cases where maybe its ‘Best to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool rather than open it and remove all doubt’
It appears that Dr. Tripathi was humorously presenting some accurate information. Contrast her comments with the climate kooks who seek to present their apocalyptic clap trap as if it were accurate in the scariest way possible.
And they’re so dour and po-faced and earnest like the worst kind of missionaries.
At this rate, if all Hydrogen comes from water, it takes 1.5 trillion years to deplete the ocean. That’s a thousand times longer than the timeframe Earth is doomed anyway due to ever increasing solar radiation.
I am quite surprised Anjali Tripathi, an astrophysicist at Harvard University can’t master the math to such a degree, that she had to come up with this particular non issue.
Had we advanced so far along the way to idiocy, that even Ivy League universities fail to keep up some semblance of scientific integrity?
OK.
And they call me Little Susie Sunshine!
I will brighten your day. The sun is thought to go nova in ~4.5 billion years.
According to my calculations, due to thermal radiative feedback, the stellar life cycle has accelerated and nova will happen in just 4.5 years. This will, of course, destroy the planet and everything on it.
And it is all your fault!
Merry Christmas.
+1
Tony
Is our sun big enough to go nova?
And, as pointed out upthread, in a billion years it is virtually certain we will get hit by a comet from the Oort cloud. Who knows. It is a reasonable hypothesis that the amount of water on earth has increased over the 4.5 billion years of its existence from the same source. This science lite, like lite beers seems to lack a certain something. From an astrophysicist, to not take a holistic view of this matter is disappointing. I think they are taught to be sensationalists to attract the cash – that seems to be the motivation for the new “narrative style” of scientific papers. I have a tongue in cheek discussion above of the effect of having more and more women,”the nurturers”, taking over climate science and politics.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/23/climate-funny-were-all-doomed-in-a-billion-years/comment-page-1/#comment-2381539
Secular brightening of the Sun can be counteracted for a while, extending the lifetime of terrestrial ecosystem for another 3 billion years or so beyond the usual 1 billion years limit. It is not easy, because requires a persistent effort for billions of years, basically the regulated flyby of an Oort cloud object in every 6000 years, but it is practicable. Every other dangerous object can also be diverted, especially with Orion class spaceships. We already have the outlines of technology to do that much.
arXiv:astro-ph/0102126v1 7 Feb 2001
Astronomical engineering: a strategy for modifying planetary orbits
D. G. Korycansky, Gregory Laughlin &. Fred C. Adams
RevMexAA (Serie de Conferencias), 22, 117–120 (2004)
ASTROENGINEERING, OR HOW TO SAVE THE EARTH IN ONLY ONE BILLION YEARS
D. G. Korycansky
In this scheme water loss is a non issue.
However, rate of Hydrogen loss might have been many orders of magnitude higher at the dawn of times, at the tail end of the Late Heavy Bombardment.
We do know from lab experiments, that abiogenesis requires a reducing environment, basically an overabundance of Hydrogen. In this respect not only an Oxygen atmosphere is a show stopper, but a nitrogen / carbon dioxide one is also too oxidative, preventing the spontaneous formation of complex biomolecules.
We also know, from the fossil record, that life appeared on Earth almost as soon as conditions permitted, shortly after the end of Late Heavy Bombardment. It is usually treated as a sign of abiogenesis being easy.
However, we also do know from the fossil record, that there was no truly reducing atmosphere on Earth, or if there was one, it was short lived. That’s because an ammonia / methane atmosphere behaves in a radically different way, than our current atmosphere.
Currently almost all terrestrial Hydrogen is locked up in water and there is a vapor trap at the top of troposphere, preventing water to penetrate into the stratosphere, where it could have a chance to meet energetic UV radiation, that would split Hydrogen off, letting it escape to space. Therefore rate of Hydrogen loss to space is minuscule.
On the other hand, in an atmosphere dominated by triatomic or even more complex gases there is no true tropopause, that is, convective currents go all the way up to the top of atmosphere. That’s because heat capacity ratio (Poisson constant) decreases with increasing complexity of molecules, and convection only stops at a certain altitude for an atmosphere mainly composed of diatomic gases, maintaining an extremely dry stratosphere above, free of convection. What is more, dew point of methane is extremely low, so there can be no methane trap at any level. That means an atmosphere with abundant methane will also have it at high altitude, where it meets hard UV radiation, Hydrogen is split off and escapes to space at a high rate. The process goes on until atmospheric methane is depleted, leaving behind an atmosphere of nitrogen / carbon dioxide mixture, which is hostile to abiogenesis.
That means abiogenesis either happened early or never. We do know it happened on Earth, otherwise we would not be here to contemplate the question (anthropic principle), but it says nothing about the a priori probability of abiogenesis, it can be arbitrarily small. So much so, that there is a good chance terrestrial life is a unique occurrence in the visible universe.
So Hydrogen loss to space can be important after all, but Anjali Tripathi somehow failed to mention the only interesting aspect of the question.
A billion years here, a billion years there, and pretty soon you’re talking about a significant amount of time. 😀
Merry Christmas everyone!
Billions shmillions, heck, they’re talking in Trillions now to be saved by a rather mediocre over-credentialled cloister of climate monks. Let’s see, the sun is 15 trillion centimeters from earth. A dollar bill is, what?, 15cm long? A trillion dollar bills would stretch between the earth and the sun, the costs they are talking about annually to save the planet!
Sigh. No CO2 leaving the planet?
Given the amount of ice in the belt, the NEOs and the outer system, I expect there are import solutions to this looming disaster. Appears we have a little time to figure them out though. Merry Christmas to one and all –
A billion years… or tomorrow. It’s a chaotic, chaotic, chaotic, chaotic world.
https://youtu.be/4W9Fr5lO__k
I don’t believe a word of it.
Possibly reflective of something going on in the bowels of the unspeakable order we find ourselves existing within . . stranger things have happened no doubt ; )
This is perfectly consistent with Quantum Mechanics – a very good validation of the theory. Metrology will continue to improve and refine the result. So far frequency measurements are the most precise measurements that can be performed in a laboratory.
“lot more work to come …. “ = we need more money.
CERN supposedly found Higgs boson (the god’s particle) which proved to be only a three day wonder even if true.
Now a new ‘catch phrase’ we got hold of anti-hydrogen.
Don’t you know that the hydrogen-anti-hydrogen nuke’s core will have weight of a sugar cube, we just need to learn how to make it without blowing up everything in sight.
Merry Christmas holidays and a happy forthcoming anno domini 2017 to you.
vukcevic says: “the hydrogen-anti-hydrogen nuke’s core will have weight of a sugar cube”
.
“The production of a nanogram (a billionth of a gram) of antihydrogen costs a few hundred million euros”
.
http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~fajans/ALPHA_Spanish/EN_almacenamiento.htm
Hi Richard
Precisely, we spent all our grant money to make one atom, sorry one anti-atom, double our grant and we will produce one maybe two more.
Further more, when we make enough of this exotic stuff, whatever is surplus to the military guys, we can use to prime a gamma-ray gun to blast any alien space ship even before it enters our solar system. Just send the dosh, not to mention we need to eat drink and be merry.
A few billion years? Thank G-d; I thought you said a few million years!
IF CO2 levels have not dropped to extinction levels well before then, the sun will expand so large that it will eventually destroy the planet Earth sometime maybe before then, while in progress towards a red giant.
http://www.universetoday.com/12648/will-earth-survive-when-the-sun-becomes-a-red-giant/
“Approximately 1.1 billion years from now, the Sun will be 10% brighter than it is today. This increase in luminosity will also mean an increase in heat energy, one which the Earth’s atmosphere will absorb.”
“In 3.5 billion years, the Sun will be 40% brighter than it is right now, which will cause the oceans to boil, the ice caps to permanently melt, and all water vapour in the atmosphere to be lost to space. Under these conditions, life as we know it will be unable to survive anywhere on the surface”
Lets why not ignore the sun because we seem to be good at doing this.
remember reading that most vertebrate species have a run of about 200,000years before evolving forward or checking out. Million or billion–doesn’t seem to really matter much. At the risk of being totally un PC–
Merry Christmas to all of you, and thanks for such a great web site.
Unless we figure out how to set up shop somewhere else it is unlikely we will survive a billion years as a species, impacts you know. And of course, anyone alive is doomed, no one gets out alive in the end.
But, Merry Christmas anyhow.
On these end-of-the-world threads I like to post this great paper by Franck et al – a scientific assessment of scenarios of biosphere extinction:
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00297542/document
CO2 starvation could wipe out life before either sun expansion or atmospheric loss (the latter I’m doubtful of due to the age of our living planet already).
Discovered the following while browsing NASA website for my billionth birthday party:
NASA considers Mars cannot have greenhouse effect without water (210 ppm), but they also declare Venus can with 20 ppm. WUWT?
Jaakko! I loved the phrase
so much that I thought, “I just have to repeat that. Heh. And then, I thought, eyes a bit wider, “Wow. That’s really true. Our souls are eternal. Someday, I WILL be a billion years old!!”
You are invited to my party, Jaakko. Please bring a main dish (entree) and either a salad or dessert to share (well, I certainly do not want to be doing the cooking on my birthday). Beverages will be provided. Hm? What’s that? Well, of COURSE we will be eating! Would it be heaven without eating?!? It will be “food” and “eating,” the same, but BETTER!
#(:))
Sounds great Janice. Year 1 000 001 960 or something in Venus – it must be hot because of all those friendly souls – I’ll bring the ambrosia.
🙂
Hello! Analytical chemist here!
I spent years with my colleagues (D.E. Emerson, P.W. Holland) analyzing the helium content of the atmosphere. It is remarkably stable at 5.2210 +/- 0.0004 parts per million, and uniform around the world, subject to no measurable seasonal variation. The source of helium is radioactive decay of minerals bearing uranium (mostly U-238) and thorium (almost exclusively Th-232) These minerals are chiefly granite and rhyolite, major components of the earth’s crust. The alpha particles produced by radioactive decay immediately capture electrons from the first atoms they encounter and become helium atoms. These atoms are ‘trapped’ in the rock, and gradually leak out to the earth’s surface through microscopic pores in the rock, entering the atmosphere. The number above represents a dynamic balance between production and escape from the atmosphere into space. Since the isotopes that produce helium have half-lives in the BILLIONS of years, changes in the overall rate of helium production are very slow. The rate of helium loss from the atmosphere is controlled by earth’s temperature, gravity and the concentration of helium in the atmosphere. None of these factors are changing measurably.
As far as hydrogen goes, the ‘hydrogen from water breaking down’ is almost entirely due to man-made hydrogen production in industrial processes, as water is much stabler than a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen. Free hydrogen occurs in the atmosphere at about one part-per-million, making it less than one-fifth as abundant as helium in the atmosphere.
The main source of hydrogen in the atmosphere is the capture of the solar wind in the earth’s magnetosphere. It is this captured hydrogen that is almost the sole source of the hydrogen ‘losses’ to space. Most of the hydrogen in the atmosphere is found at VERY high altitudes.
I would expect an astrophysicist to understand that this is a very minor atmospheric effect, and an *equilibrium*.
FWIW, the entire earth’s atmosphere weighs about 6 QUADRILLION (6,000,000,000,000,000) tons, so losing 406.6 pounds a minute will take a LONG time to make even a measurable difference.
Thank you, tadchem! Fine, super-well-informed, teaching and much appreciated.
We’re not doomed by lack of Flintstones, fossil fuels, steel or rare earth. There’s enough O2 or H2O in the Orth cloud, leaves us 1bln. years min.
What we really lack is optimism and a realistic view – eg on next real problems:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alternative-source-of-tire-rubber-gains-traction/
There one sees how laughable the discussion internal combustion / electric powered cars is:
the real problem is diesel / electric machines for heavy trains on the hard rails and traction / comfort for passengers and good on the roads.
Evolution, science, technics shows as what POLITICS is unwilling to learn:
The right next step right in time.