Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball
“Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practise to deceive!”
Sir Walter Scott (1771-1832)
Support for the global warming/climate change agenda is becoming increasingly desperate, hysterical, and illogical. The causes are many, but chief among them are a plethora of contradictory evidence and growing public skepticism or at least disinterest. There are bizarre parallels to the Frankenstein and Dracula stories. The monster of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) collapses as it turns on the scientists who created it. Dracula needed the energy of blood but knew the dangers of exposure to sunlight. The IPCC failure to consider the Sun is a similar exposure and is causing their demise.
The latest desperate move involves the agreement on the reduction of Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC). The Paris Climate Agreement is disintegrating for a variety of reasons all of them inherent in the science and politics from the start of the AGW deception. Promoters of AGW needed a victory, an agreement that appeared to show success in dealing with the alarmism they created. They had to show that Protocols, like the Kyoto Protocol or its replacement the Green Climate Fund (GCF), are effective. They reached back to the Montreal Protocol that they claim was successful. HFCs became a crossover vehicle, a political/science hybrid.
The Montreal Protocol is the world’s most successful environmental treaty, already doing double duty saving the ozone layer and curbing climate change. With global climate action needed now more than ever, sealing an HFC deal under the Montreal Protocol is the biggest thing that can be done this year to build on the Paris agreement and protect our children’s future.
When the planet or children’s future are threatened In fact, the Montreal Protocol only appeared to succeed. This is because they applied the major distorting assumption of most environmental disaster claims. A natural change occurs and it is exploited as an unnatural change. Most people think that all change is gradual over long periods of time and variation in nature is almost non-existent. From this, it appears logical to claim that any change is unnatural and caused by humans. The ozone, like all other natural variables, varies considerably over short time periods.
A few years ago I was summoned to appear before the Canadian Parliamentary Committee on Ozone in Ottawa. I did not want to go because I know these are orchestrated charades. The truth is not the objective for government or opposition but simply for politicians to promote either a party or a political agenda. It turned out that it was quasi-judicial and I had to appear. A few things happened at the hearing that relate to the current HFC claims.
A delegation from Dupont attended but remained, to my surprise, quiet. I spoke with some of them after. They knew the science was wrong. The silence was because they had a replacement ready and stood to make more money and also gain a PR coup. As Dupont note
Today, DuPont manufactures hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as alternatives to CFCs for the air conditioning and refrigeration industries.
A York University (Toronto) professor made a presentation on ozone levels over Toronto. He failed to tell the politicians that there were no ozone readings for Toronto at the time. His data was computer model generated. The politicians did not know it because I asked them.
I pointed out at the hearing that ozone reduction due to CFCs claim was an untested, unproven hypothesis. It was doomed to fail because it assumed that insolation, including ultraviolet radiation that creates ozone, was constant. In an interview afterwards I also warned that the replacement (HCFC) was potentially more damaging.
Since then we learned among other things that UV varies considerably, Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) affect ozone destruction, there is no empirical evidence that CFCs were destroying ozone. The evidence put forward came primarily from Susan Solomon, a bureaucratic scientist at NOAA who was contributing author to the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) and co-chair of Working Group I (the Physical Science Report of the Fourth Assessment Report (2007). Because of Solomon’s connection, I explained in an earlier article how the ozone issue was a dry run for the global warming deception.
They are making claims that a reduction in HFCs will reduce global warming
Over all, the administration estimated that the agreements announced on Tuesday would reduce cumulative global consumption of HFCs by the equivalent of 700 million metric tons of carbon dioxide through 2025. That is about 1.5 percent of the world’s 2010 greenhouse gas emissions, or the same as taking 15 million cars off the road for 10 years.
A modern claim equivalent to the medieval question of how many angels on the head of a pin, and equally meaningless. All this is based on assumptions and claims made about HFCs by the IPCC that are simply wrong. Much of it revolves around the designation of HFC as a greenhouse gas with a specific Global Warming Potential (GWP). This was a designation, an artifice, created originally because of the minimal amounts of methane in the atmosphere. Cattle and their methane were identified in claims by people like Jeremy Rifkin as the greater threat to the atmosphere, the planet, and humanity in a book and campaign titled Beyond Beef. Their problem was that methane is only 0.00017% of the total atmosphere and 0.36% of the total greenhouse gases. They needed a multiplier, and it became the GWP. Estimates of problems with this index are wide ranging and constantly changing.
The global warming potential is an attempt to provide a simple measure of the relative radiative effects of the emissions of various greenhouse gases. The index is defined as the cumulative radiative forcing between the present add some chosen time horizon caused by a unit mass of gas emitted now, expressed relative to that for some reference gas (here CO2 is used).
Derivation of GWPs requires knowledge of the fate of the emitted gas and the radiative forcing due to the amount remaining in the atmosphere. Although the GWPs are quoted is single values, the typical uncertainty is ± 35%, not including the uncertainty in the carbon dioxide reference.
They determined the original GWP values on a decision taken at the Conference of the Parties 3, 1997.
GWP values to be used by Parties for reporting any emissions and for any other commitments under the Kyoto Protocol are the 100 year GWP values from IPCC (1996)
All GWPs depend on the AGWP for CO2 (the denominator in the definition of the GWP).
This hasn’t changed because Assessment Report 5 says,
Emission metrics such as Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) can be used to quantify and communicate the relative and absolute contributions to climate change of emissions of different substances, and of emissions from regions/countries or sources/sectors. The metric that has been used in policies is the GWP, which integrates the RF of a substance over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of CO2.
One of the problems is the original observation said,
The uncertainty in the AGWP for CO2 is estimated to be ±15%, with equal contributions from the CO2 response function and the RF calculation.
But there is a bigger problem. The original calculations assumed an atmospheric residency time for CO2 was 100 years.
The diagram and the comments are a combination of the original graph and quotes from Lawrence Solomon’s book The Deniers. As Solomon explained
“The IPCC chose to assume CO2 remained in the atmosphere for up to 100 years (red bar in graph). If a shorter residence time was assumed, the IPCC climate models would not be able to predict the accelerated warming that is hypothesized to be caused by human CO2 emissions.”
I know there are arguments about what residency time means, but it is irrelevant because the IPCC used the 100-year value in their calculations of GWP. The cumulative error means that HFC has a much lower GWP than is used to promote the claims of the success of the Montreal Protocol. But while important, that is a minor part of the complete fiasco that summarizes as follows.
1. No empirical evidence exists to show that CFCs were creating “holes in the ozone.”
2. Ozone levels and their variability were and are natural.
3. False science was created to prove CFCs were a problem.
4. A political structure was set up that used the false science to impose completely unnecessary restrictions on a wide range of manufacturing, business, and everyday activities.
5. Dupont produced CFCs originally as an inert, safe, replacement mostly for ammonia in refrigeration equipment.
6. Dupont did not oppose the ban on CFCs because they already had a replacement, HCFCs, and later HFCs, to advance crony capitalism.
7. Politicians pushed by the environmental lobbies produced the Montreal Protocol, that is similar to my description years ago of Kyoto as an unnecessary political solution to a non-existent scientific problem.
8. Most countries were part of the Montreal Protocol but were not required to take any action.
9. A similar deception was created around CO2 with attempts to produce a political solution, the Kyoto Protocol. Again most countries were not required to take action.
10. The Kyoto Protocol collapsed when the false science was exposed through leaked emails.
11. A replacement, the Green Climate Fund, although approved at COP 21 in Paris, is failing.
12. Failure of the Paris agreement required a victory.
13. Elimination of HFCs offered the opportunity to keep the focus on a human cause, link it to the false success of the Montreal Protocol and keep the entire AGW debacle afloat.
14. Dupont will likely produce the replacement refrigerant, and crony capitalism will continue. It is crony capitalism, not good business, because they know the proper science and make a conscious corporate decision. If they don’t know the science, then their license should be revoked.
The developing nations suffered from the original CFC ozone destruction claims. The developed world reduced their percentage of food loss between the farm and the table from approximately 60 percent to 30 percent. This was denied to the developing world when CFCs were banned. It was another example of Paul Driessen’s Eco-Imperialism, the imposition of western green agendas that are harmful to people in the developing world.
A major problem with globalization or unilateral policies, the one-size-fits-all mentality, is that it never really fits anyone. This is the case with the HFC agreement. There is a contradiction between the claim that the planet is threatened by anthropogenic greenhouse gases and dispensation for some of the largest producers and potentially biggest users. Consider that
Some developing countries, specifically India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and the Gulf states will not freeze their use until 2028. China, the world’s largest producer of HFCs, will not actually start to cut their production or use until 2029. (My bold)
How many more refrigerators does this mean? How many more air conditioners?
There never was a problem with CFCs or CO2. Artificial science was created using these beneficial gases to advance a political agenda. Perhaps the ultimate irony in this Alice in Wonderland, but frightening scenario, is the proposal that CO2 become the replacement refrigerant gas for CFCs, and guess who is behind that proposal.
Why not use sulfur dioxide as a replacement, going back to the refrigerant commonly used into the 1930s before it was replaced by much safer Freon?
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/ie50270a010?journalCode=iechad
I encountered an old SO2 refrigerator purchased by college friends in the early 70s, really cheap from a junkyard. I walked into their apartment and immediately smelled sulfurous odor, but one of the bad effects of SO2 is that it deadens the smell receptors so they didn’t smell the leaking refrigerant. I told them to junk the machine. Fortunately they did.
Lawyers are already on the scene:
http://www.experts.com/Articles/Hydrogen-Sulfide-and-Sulfur-Dioxide-Basic-Toxicology-and-Primary-Litigation-Issues-By-Thomas-H-Milby-MD
At the time of low activity geomagnetic large influence on the distribution of ozone has Earth’s magnetic field. Ozone is moved closer to the Earth’s poles.
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/Fcolourful.jpg
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_50_sh_f00.png
ren,
Yoda-like your comment was:
“At the time of low activity geomagnetic large influence on the distribution of ozone has Earth’s magnetic field.”
Is there any way I could convince you to clarify and expand on what you were trying to say?
rip
Ozone (O3), or trioxygen, is a triatomic molecule consisting of three oxygen atoms. It is an allotrope of oxygen that is much less stable than the diatomic allotrope (O2), breaking down with a half life of about half an hour in the lower atmosphere to O2. Ozone is diamagnetic, which means that its electrons are all paired. In contrast, O2 is paramagnetic, containing two unpaired electrons.
Source: Boundless. “Ozone.” Boundless Chemistry. Boundless, 26 May. 2016. Retrieved 24 Oct. 2016 from https://www.boundless.com/chemistry/textbooks/boundless-chemistry-textbook/nonmetallic-elements-21/oxygen-153/ozone-594-3612/
Another interesting post from Dr. Ball. — Eugene WR Gallun
5. Conclusions
From the extended study of 68 selected FDs (>2 % for CRs with 10 GV rigidity) out of
617 FEs recorded at neutron monitors between 2008 and 2013, the following conclusions
can be drawn:
Author’s personal copy
D. Lingri et al.
• The examined time period, covering the minimum between the Solar Cycles 23 and 24
and the ascending phase of the Solar Cycle 24, shows once again that there is a temporal
continuity between the solar events and the cosmic ray intensity. When crucial phenomena
take place on the Sun, the intensity of the cosmic rays is affected significantly and Forbush
decreases are recorded on the Earth’s surface, as it is presented in Figures 1 and 2. These
FDs are directly associated with fast halo CMEs on the Sun and the shock waves they
create, but neither of them is necessarily connected with a solar flare.
• As it is shown in Table 1, the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24 is characterized by a
large number of FDs, but no strong events. Specifically, during the first two years of Solar
Cycle 24, only a few relatively strong cosmic ray events occurred, far fewer than during
the corresponding period of Cycle 23. As a result the geomagnetic storms that happened
were much weaker than those of the previous Solar Cycle 23, with the Dst index to reach
values smaller than −100 nT only a few times (Table 2).
• We find that the FDs studied in this article, from 2008 to 2013, were associated with
strong flares of class ≤ M, and only three (on 18 February 2011, 8 March 2012, and
14 July 2012) were associated with X-class flares. The greatest one occurred on 8 March
2012 with amplitude of 11.70 % for cosmic rays of 10 GV, obtained by GSM from all
neutron monitor stations (Figure 3). These three FDs analyzed in detail (Figure 4) and
their amplitude was found to be about the same in the polar neutron monitor stations as
in the mid-latitude stations, almost independent of the cut-off rigidity of each station up
to 6 GV (Figure 5).
• The statistical analysis of these events in relation with solar and interplanetary parameters
(Table 4) showed that the Dst index has a quasi-linear relation with the amplitude of the
FDs (Figure 6), but there is no obvious correlation with the solar wind velocity (Figures 6
and 7). On the contrary, the amplitude of the FDs has a linear relation with the solar
wind velocity (Figure 8). It is obvious that the most energetic event of March 2012 is an
interesting and distinct event, worthy of a more detailed future study.
• In addition, a good correlation was found between the FD amplitudes and the Dst index
values, with respect to the corresponding CME velocities (Figure 9). However, most of
the CMEs were not related to a large geomagnetic storm. Finally, from the temporal distributions
of the FD amplitude, the solar wind velocity, and the CME velocity versus the
time interval needed for the CMEs to arrive at Earth (Figure 10) we find that the maximum
average velocity of the solar wind was 539 ± 13 km s−1 and the average CME velocity
was 975±31 km s−1. The time interval varies between 40 and 80 hours as it was recorded
at Earth.
In summary, we can say that the FDs of the cosmic ray intensity remain the most important
of the cosmic ray events recorded at the ground-based neutron monitors and present many
different characteristics in relation with the solar activity parameters during the different
phases of the solar cycles. Nowadays, the monitoring and prediction of these events provide
important information to the scientific community in the context of space weather studies.
http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr/publications/D110.pdf
“How many more refrigerators does this mean? How many more air conditioners?”
And not a single digit of accounting for the environmental burden of prematurely scrapping millions of tons of perfectly good, perfectly maintainable pieces of refrigeration equipment including home and office air conditioning units and grocery store freezer units, when their replacement is forced by subsequent regulations, unavailability of replacement parts, or artificially high costs.
And, in the Keynesian mindset, all this waste is only good for the economy because of all the jobs it will “create” due to all the new equipment that will be required to be manufactured and installed.
And we wonder why our economy barely grows.
What is the explanation for any of the ozone depleting gases for defying the trade winds and only affecting the south pole?
A series of images shows the development of the first Stratospheric Sudden Warming monitored by satellite, in early 1979. As the air warms, the winds that normally circle the North Pole counterclockwise switch direction. The low pressure area over the pole, in blue, distorts and splits. These warming events affect winter weather patterns on the ground. Source: Lorenzo M. Polvani
http://www.symmetrymagazine.org/sites/default/files/legacy/images/200903/article07_image01_v2.jpg
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/charts/jpg/polar_n_f.jpg
http://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/march-2009/cosmic-weather-gauges
Let’s see pressure anomalies over the southern polar circle and galactic radiation.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.aao.cdas.gif
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/realtime/southpole.html
Chlorofluorocarbons were little used for refrigeration until better synthesis methods, developed in the 1950s, reduced their cost. Source Wikipedia.
Gordon Dobson first observed the Antarctic ozone hole in 1956.It’s a natural feature of the Antarctic stratosphere in spring and it results from the replacement of air containing ozone with air from the troposphere that contains little ozone (and a lot of NOx) as part of the process of the final warming of the stratosphere.
The origin of the hole is described in exhaustive detail here: https://reality348.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/23-the-dearly-beloved-antarctic-ozone-hole-a-function-of-atmospheric-dynamics/
The arrangement of land and sea in the northern hemisphere precludes the generation of an enduring hole in the Arctic but fleeting holes do occur frequently in the month of March.
But for the release of NOx by the soil the partial pressure of ozone would increase all the way to the surface of the planet.
The higher tropopause in the northern hemisphere in summer is due to the abundant land masses of the northern hemisphere and their release of NOx.
We have available an excellent site for the study of trace gas content here:: http://macc.aeronomie.be/4_NRT_products/5_Browse_plots/1_Snapshot_maps/index.php?src=MACC_o-suite&l=TC
Just check ozone distribution against the distribution of NOx and you can draw your own conclusions.
The ban on CFCs via the Montreal protocol was the first major achievement of the environmental movement and it led to the assertion that CO2 emissions would result in global warming. The southern hemisphere has not warmed in December for seven decades.. Neither the assertion that the ozone hole is the result of human activity nor the assertion that the planet would warm if the CO2 content of the atmosphere increased have the slightest foundation in observed atmospheric behaviour.
“It would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
― Joseph Goebbels
Alas for Yorick!
It really won’t matter what they do. By the time they have electricity prices jacked up to unaffordable rates, you won’t be able to afford to run freezers, fridges or air conditioning. Which is already happening in places like Ontario. Where seniors have been forced to shut off their air conditioning in the hot summers and go and sit in air conditioned malls all day. Or the grocer who expanded and renovated his grocery store and put in all new refrigeration, and was then forced to close down 2/3 of his store including meat and bakery departments because his power bill went to $5000,00 a month from around $1500.00 a month. Which essentially turned him into just another convenience store.
Good article Dr. Ball.
What I haven’t seen discussed, and I think highlights the insanity of this attempt to ‘save the planet’ by banning HFCs is the incredibly small quantity of HFCs that are in the atmosphere. According to the IPCC AR5, taking the most common automobile refrigerant HFC134a, the atmospheric concentration is 63 parts per trillion. Put on the same scale that CO2 is measured, that is 0.000063ppm, as compared to 400ppm for CO2. So there is only 0.00000016 as much HFC134a in the atmosphere as there is CO2. Even if you apply a dubious 1,000 factor of GWP, HFC134a would only have .00016 the impact of CO2.
Then consider that humans have added ~600 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere over the last ~19 years, and it hasn’t caused the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere to increase. The small positive trend over that time period is due to the natural 2016 El Nino.
Then consider that refrigerants for cars, buildings, refrigeration are not constantly added to the atmosphere in the same way as burning fossil fuels does, because they are sealed into systems for decades, and like the old R12, most of them can be recovered. To ban them when they are so insignificant is insanity, as their proven positive benefits far far outweigh the insignificant potential, unproven harm. And to claim that the ban on HFCs is ‘saving the planet’ from catastrophic warming a hundred years from now is just ludicrous. It’s just an example of bureaucrats doing what they do, pushing an agenda, justifying their existence and controlling peoples’ lives.
Of course DuPont acquiesced to banning R-12. Their patent had expired by the time of the Montreal Protocol and they needed new protections against competition for their new refrigerant, R-22 and R-134a. The price of R-12 was falling as other companies were getting into the market, thus regulation was desired by DuPont to bar any competing chemical companies. Now that R-22 and R-134a patents are expiring, well golly, those chemicals are just as evil as R-12 was and now need to be banned. Can I also state that when I had to convert my truck’s A/C system over to R-134a, that it didn’t work as well either?
As an auto mechanic in the 70s I did a lot of air conditioning work with R-12. It was common practice at the time when filling a system just to let a partial can left over vent – you could see the condensation of the heavier-than-air R-12 literally rolling along the ground. At the time I always wondered how on Earth it could ever get up into the upper atmosphere – I have ever since then been skeptical of what we were being told.
R-12 worked great, too – when a system was working good you could get inside air vent temps in the low to mid 30s F and it was always a possibility to have condensation freeze up on the evaporator. I don’t even come close to that problem with “modern” auto air conditioning systems!
Muons, heavier versions of electrons, are around us all the time, a byproduct of the cosmic rays that shoot out from supernovae and other high-energy events in space. When particles from those rays hit Earth’s atmosphere, they often decay into muons.
Muons are abundant on the surface of the Earth, but in Axani’s University of Alberta underground office, shielded by the floors above, they might be few and far between. A pocket detector would be the perfect gadget for measuring the difference.
Now a doctoral student at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Axani has nearly made this device a reality. Along with an undergraduate student and Axani’s adviser, Janet Conrad, he’s developed a detector that sits on a desk and tallies the muons that pass by. The best part? The whole system can be built by students for under $100.
http://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/the-100-muon-detector
Excuse me? My CFC’s/HFC’s are safely contained in my refrigerator – and have been for 15 years. Why ban a ‘utility’ rather than ‘regulate’ it’s handling/handlers? W/o concern about their environmental ‘danger’, just don’t vent them to the atmosphere!
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2843032
I usually don’t like spaming, but i think you can and must spam this for the next 30 years, time for it to actually reach brains.
Following up on nabbiz:How are projections of emissions of HFC made? And how extensive and reliable are measurements of HCF concentrations in the atmosphere? Anyone have some good references? The always quoted 1000 GWP number is meaningless without such information.
At the time of low solar activity will occur pressure anomalies over the polar circle.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.obs.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.ao.cdas.gif
A few years ago I was summoned to appear before the Canadian Parliamentary Committee on Ozone in Ottawa.
If by a few you mean ‘~twenty’!
1. No empirical evidence exists to show that CFCs were creating “holes in the ozone.”
2. Ozone levels and their variability were and are natural.
3. False science was created to prove CFCs were a problem.
4. A political structure was set up that used the false science to impose completely unnecessary restrictions on a wide range of manufacturing, business, and everyday activities.
5. Dupont produced CFCs originally as an inert, safe, replacement mostly for ammonia in refrigeration equipment.
6. Dupont did not oppose the ban on CFCs because they already had a replacement, HCFCs, and later HFCs, to advance crony capitalism.
All these statements except #5 (except that it was General Motors that developed it) are untrue.
Re #6,
Dupont strongly opposed the phaseout of CFCs in aerosols in the late 70s but started developing replacements as a result of that phaseout.
In March 4, 1988, Richard E. Heckert, chairman of E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, wrote a letter to three Senators who had sharply criticized the company, he said there was no reason for Du Pont to stop making chlorofluorocarbons.
Shortly thereafter the report of a NASA meeting showed that the writing was on the wall and Dupont quickly changed its strategy.
Let’s look at the forecast of circulation in the lower stratosphere at the northern hemisphere.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z70_nh_f120.png
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/charts/jpg/polar_n_f.jpg
Reblogged this on Earth Network .news and commented:
Tim Ball was a professor of geography at the University of Winnipeg from 1988 to 1996. He is a prolific speaker and writer in the skeptical science community. [2]
He has been Chairman to the now-defunct Natural Resources Stewardship Project (NRSP), “Consultant” to the Exxon-funded Friends of Science (FoS), senior fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy (FCPP), and has connections to numerous other think tanks and right-wing organizations. [3], [4], [1]
Tim Ball is member of Climate Exit (Clexit), a climate change denial group formed shortly after the UK’s decision to leave the EU. According to Clexit’s founding statement (PDF), “The world must abandon this suicidal Global Warming crusade. Man does not and cannot control the climate.” [5], [6]
Source: http://www.desmogblog.com/tim-ball
In the 1970’s I attended a talk by Sherwood Rowland and asked a few questions about his new theory, recycled from his nitric oxide theory to help block the SST. Remember that the theory was based on the increase in Chlorine in the stratosphere. I asked what the historical level of chlorine was and how much it had risen from CFC use. I still don’t know the total level in the stratosphere during the peak of CFC production and what percent increase was possible in the total level.
Recently I heard the report of a new paper showing that the ozone hole was being repaired because of the Montreal protocol but I don’t believe that it even addressed that important issue, i.e. the change in Chlorine levels.
CFC destruction of the ozone layer is a Halloween monster that won’t die.
The Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) at Uccle (Belgium, about 50° latitude North) measures total ozone column since 1971. The overall yearly pattern is a sine-wave going from a maximum of about 370 DU in spring to about a minimum of 280 DU in October. The day-to-day natural variations about this mean pattern are enormous, as seen by the grey bands (2 sigma bands) in this picture: <a href = "http://ozone.meteo.be/meteo/view/en/113200-ajaxcontroller.html/1569014/image.jpg" .
We find the same pattern in our measuring station in Luxembourg, with a more or less zero trend.since 2002. What I want to stress is that nothing could be more wrong than assuming the ozone layer a well-behaved, only moderately wiggling blanket.
Sorry for the bad link to Uccle’s picture. Here it is again:
…