From NASA Goddard:
Satellites from NASA and NOAA have been tracking and analyzing powerful Hurricane Matthew since its birth just east of the Leeward Islands on Sept. 28.
On October 4, 2016, Hurricane Matthew made landfall on southwestern Haiti as a category-4 storm–the strongest storm to hit the Caribbean nation in more than 50 years. Just hours after landfall, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired a natural-color image that showed the western extent over the eastern tip of Cuba and the eastern-most extent over Puerto Rico.
At NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland the NASA/NOAA GOES Project combined infrared and visible imagery from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite into an animation of Matthew. The animation of imagery from Oct. 3 to Oct. 5 shows Hurricane Matthew making landfall in Haiti and eastern Cuba then move toward the Bahamas.
On Oct. 5, there were many warnings and watches in effect on Oct. 5 from Cuba to the Bahamas to Florida.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma and Las Tunas; the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island; the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island; the Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. In Florida a Hurricane Warning is in effect from north of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line and Lake Okeechobee.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey and north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti, Turks and Caicos Islands. In Florida a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Chokoloskee to Golden Beach, the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward, and Florida Bay.
At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near 21.8 degrees north latitude and 75.2 degrees west longitude. That’s about 55 miles (90 km) north-northwest of Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba and about 105 miles (165 km) south of Long Island, Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said “Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 kph), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening, Oct. 6.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 kph) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3 or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).”
The minimum central pressure reported by both Hurricane Hunter planes was 962 millibars.
An unconfirmed wind gust of 155 mph (250 kph) was reported in Baracoa, Cuba, on the night of Oct. 4 as the eye of Matthew passed nearby.
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Meanwhile, the latest spaghetti model runs (18Z) are markedly different than yesterday, showing loops and wider curves out into the Atlantic. Click for much larger images.
While some models show landfall through Florida, many others show it away from the coast, and never actually making landfall at all.
Link to .kmz file is here if you want to look at it in Google Earth yourself.
Do a right click and “save as”, complete download, double click it and it will open Google Earth (assuming you have it installed) . See the model output in “temporary places” folder in the left sidebar pane. Loads of data available that you can enable and disable with checkboxes.
Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue had this to say:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783760634299224065
Paul Dorian of Vencore weather seems to think (as we did earlier) that we may have a loopback on our hands. He writes:
After its arrival in east-central Florida – perhaps even as a category 4 (major) hurricane – Hurricane Matthew is likely to slide parallel to the coastline of northeast Florida and Georgia before beginning to turn more sharply to the northeast near the South Carolina/North Carolina border region. This sharp right turn will likely be the beginning of a loop to be made by Matthew which will quite likely prevent it from moving close to the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, this expected loop by Matthew could actually result in a second hit to hit the Bahamas/Florida region sometime next week – albeit in a weakened state. While somewhat unusual, it is not unprecedented for Atlantic Basin tropical systems to move in a looping fashion at some point during their lifetime; especially, during the latter stages of the tropical season when weather systems can slow down due to atmospheric blocking patterns.
…
Latest computer forecast models tend to agree on an eventual looping pattern for Matthew which will become influenced by a deep upper-level trough moving east from the middle of the country. Another factor in the ultimate track of Matthew will be Tropical Storm Nicole which currently sits out over the central Atlantic. These two systems could “dance around” each other for a number of days and we may just end up dealing with Matthew near the Southeast US coastline later next week. The 12Z GFS forecast maps feature an arrival of Hurricane Matthew near or at the east-central coast of Florida early tomorrow (map above) and then there might be a return visit around Monday night (map below) after a complete loop over the western Atlantic Ocean. The low pressure system seen to the east of Matthew on both forecast maps is Tropical Storm Nicole. While the center of Matthew could stay south of the North Carolina coastline, heavy rain and strong winds could actually extend northward well into North Carolina and perhaps even into southeastern Virginia.
It’s a forecasting and evacuation nightmare at this point. Maue adds the nightmare model scenario:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783731619899252740
Meanwhile, despite the increased uncertainty, the usual doomsters are out in force:
Questions about wet, wild & weird Hurricane Matthew? Some answers: https://t.co/p0hflBltRI pic.twitter.com/Lj54NexKLH
— @borenbears (@borenbears) October 5, 2016
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Whatever happens, there is nothing mankind can do to change the weather. No reason to panic, but for thorough planning and preparation.
Let’s hope for the best and may God be with the people there.
Thanks Non Nomen . One of the most sensible comments on this thread. (And there have been many sensible ones).
Apart from cloud seeding.
Nothing?
Ah more settled science and certainty from Skeptics.
Let’s see.
You believe that climate is chaotic, that it’s too complicated to understand or model, But you know
that there is nothing we can do to change it. So even though it’s chaotic and the flap of a butterflies
wing can change things, man’s influence is less than a butterflies wing. Sounds a bit contradictory
to me.
Plus, as we know changes in vegetation, can drive the increase or decrease in organic particles
in the atmosphere. As Skeptic Rud points out these particles aid in the creation of clouds.
Just like GCRs
But adding c02 to the atmosphere, yes the trace gas c02, will increase plant growth.. skeptics said so
So when it comes to the trace gas c02 it has some powerful influence on plant growth..how can a trace gas have such a strong influence? and who knows
maybe increased vegetation has an influence on CCN and hence on clouds and hence on the weather. Its all so complicated there are many theories, the science is still young we cant rule out that man has an effect on the weather.
I’m relieved that you have figured out the final answer to the question… and all with a wave of your arms
That is why I come here.
The best science EVER!
Dear $teven M0$her,
1. the flap of a butterflies wing
can change thingscan change nothing but the position of the butterfly, for the air displacement effect of its wings is OVERWHELMED by the supervening causation of forces far more powerful.2. There is no conclusive evidence that changes in vegetation, so far as a GLOBAL climate impact are concerned, are significantly caused by human CO2 emissions (most if not ALL the CO2 affecting the plants is natural sourced). Again, the rational conclusion is that the TWO ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE LARGER natural drivers of greening overwhelm the tiny potential (not one direct cause–>effect measurement, only correlation) human impact. Further, granted that human CO2 is significantly beneficial to plants, GOOD, i.e., the net effect on climate is benign or beneficial.
3. CO2 {} has some powerful influence on plant growth..how can a trace gas have such a strong influence? — Comparing CO2’s powerful effect on photosynthesis to its weak-to-the-point-of-non-existence effect on the climate of the earth (only in a laboratory/closed system like a greenhouse is there any evidence at all that CO2 MIGHT affect the climate of the earth — and not one measurement proves that it is not overwhelmed by other climate drivers) is nonsense.
4. Why you come here…. that remains a mystery. My guess, since you are not ignorant and are a bright man (thus, your way off remarks above are clearly cynically made and intended to fool the ignorant), is that you come to WUWT to promote your enviroprofiteer interests. That is, for you, it appears to be mostly about the money.
Mr. M0sher, many of us at WUWT over the years have sensed that you still have a spark of goodness and truth in your soul. This is evidenced by your sometimes conflicted writing. You love Anthony (as a friend), but, you love money, too. You realize this (perhaps, now, only subconsciously, but the real (I hope) “you” of the spirit is crying out against the dark side of you, the “you” of the flesh (i.e., materialism/money)) yet, you choose to shun the light and dwell in darkness.
COME BACK (you weren’t a cynical, money-serving, little boy, were you?….. You WERE??! Aaaaaaa. Heh, no, I do not believe that)! At least, privately come back. Isn’t the state of your eternal soul FAR more important than making a few bucks before you take that irreversible step across the line of mortality… the finish line is nearer now than it was yesterday. Remember (I recall that you cited Screwtape once, so, I assume you have read C. S. Lewis’ Screwtape Letters): the Ev1l One does not shout, “Reject that truth, Steven!” Oh, no. He simply whispers gently in your ear, “Wait awhile. You’ll always have time… .”
WAKE UP! Time for YOU is going to run out one of these days. The day will come when you will never again be able to leave the darkness.
Your critic here, but truly concerned (and bracing myself for your anger/scorn, but determined not to give up on you),
Janice
I’ve been talking about “weather”. You are talking about climate. Obviously, you haven’t read my posting properly but just took it as a pretext to rant as you have done so often before.
Do your homework and get a life.
@ur momisugly Steven Mosher
I’ve been talking about “weather”. You are talking about climate. Obviously, you haven’t read my posting properly but just took it as a pretext to rant as you have done so often before.
Do your homework and get a life.
i had the best laugh ever Steven
i have the best answer to your question: When a storm hits we still have no magickal electromagnetic (or other) wall to break it’s wind, repel the storm surge and so on….
we can do nothing about that except being prepared. or maybe you have a special gun invented to blow away a hurricane into the open sea?
and yes CO2 has a powerfull influence on plant growth because it’s their food. so the ecosystem’s law comes in action: increase the food supply of any living organism and it will prosper.
Or do you think that they increase the CO2 levels in greenhouses just for fun?
He would go to the north.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_150_nh_f00.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/500gz_anomalies_nh.gif
FYI, this site combines hurricane maps from every conceivable source in one page,
http://bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html
LarryFine: That’s a great site. Is this just a one-off for this particular hurricane, or does it track everything all the time?
Growing ionization atmosphere in the northern hemisphere.
http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/rtimg/dose.15km.png
I heard on the news this morning that the pressure had dropped to 940 millibars.
I will be looking to see what wind speeds ground based instruments pick up, vs what is reported.
@ur momisugly Janice Moore
My posting “Non Nomen October 7, 2016 at 12:12 am ” wasn’t directed at you, my apologies.
You gave a fine reply, Steven M. did not.
Thank you, Non Nomen. That was so kind of you to take the time to tell me. I see what happened. Anthony lets him post freely (unless he tosses out of his window as he drives by WUWT at 50 miles per hour a “Not!” or “Debunked!” or the like, lol), but wants to be certain to review his comments first, so…. his name is one of the “magic words” around here.
And, to you, too — weather is not climate and, aside from VERY short-term (and very small regional effects compared to the planet), we cannot cause meaningfully enduring change in the weather.
Only God can. 🙂
Oh, brother…. “and to you, too fine comment “
That phenomenon the Caribbean and the East coast have been and still are experincing is clearly a “weather”-matter. Whether people attribute it to climate doesn’t matter, it isn’t a climate thing. Some people have problems understanding that there are things on this tiny little ball that are not accessible to ratio but are a matter of higher powers. Mankind will rise to the occasion as it always did. Planning, preparation and adaptation are the keys, not modeling and subsequent panic. They fiddle around with models of which the physics are faulty and where an ideology is the driving power. It’s a deception, some sort of “Ersatz”-church. There is a fine sentence, printed on each dollar bill after 1956…
Janice, enjoy life!
N.N.