Models suggest hurricane #Matthew could hit Florida twice

Last night, hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue noted that the GFS model started to act a bit “loopy” when it came to forecasting the track of Hurricane Matthew.

He notes:

GFS 00z one of those head-scratchers … it’s a (unlikely possibility but let’s get through the next 48-hours first.

mattew-huricane-gfs-loop

Due to an interaction between the two storms, Matthew may get forced back towards the USA after making a turn to the northeast:

Dr. Roy Spencer noted this morning that NHC had the possibility in their forecast discussion:

 

This is a large departure from previous forecasts, and the National Hurricane Center’s discussion this morning is just hinting at the new scenario where Matthew does not recurve poleward the way most hurricanes do.

Such unusual hurricane tracks are particularly difficult to forecast, and I suspect the NHC forecasters are beginning to tear their hair out over this storm.

loopy-matthew

We live in interesting times.

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57 thoughts on “Models suggest hurricane #Matthew could hit Florida twice

    • Hurricane Agnes did something of a loop. As a tropical storm it turned inland over NY and looped at Elmira and came back over southern NY. It was 3 days of heavy rain.

    • John, if i’m not mistaken, katrina did the same sort of thing. (difficult to remember ’cause my katrina memories are all viewed through the lense of PTSD) Looks likes deja vu all over again to moi…

    • Gulf hurricanes loop often just because of the nature of the basin. Atlantic hurricanes don’t loop nearly as often — when they do, it is usually a spinning in one spot for a while until it decides which way to go (see Agnes in 1972).

      The Beyblade mode seems very unusual.

      • If nobody understands Beyblades — how about Battling Tops?

        Hurricanes are like tops — a slight push can move them in any direction, but the spin keeps them going. When two hit, they can go in any direction.

    • Edith, 1963. It looped around, off the coast of NC, headed back down the coast towards Florida, then looped around and went north again, all over a period of 9 days. I think they referred to the initial loop as a hairpin turn (I remember some storm of my youth doing what they called a hairpin turn, but can’t remember which one).

    • point of order – Camille was *not* a looper. It went pretty straight from the Caribbean to the Mississippi Gulf Coast…and wiped it clean.

  1. Maybe this will suck enough heat out of the coastal waters to starve any others that move in. Won’t help the gulf, though.

    • In 2004 and 2005, a great many storms passed over the same waters in succession, and many of the later ones had plenty of fuel.

      • If you examine the track of Wilma, you’ll see anecdotal support for Pop’s cooled surface water-subsequent Hurricane cyclone energy conjecture.

      • Depends on what you mean by same waters.
        Also the chart gives no indication of how far apart the various storms were in time, or what time of year.

      • Yes but people will be trying to cleanup and get tarps on roofs, and other such measures, and will be severely hampered by an extended windy and rainy period.
        The forecast had previously been for dry conditions to move in after the storm.
        Plus, intensity forecasts that far out are not worth much…if it makes a bigger loop it will pass over plenty more warm water and have time to reorganize and strengthen.
        Lets hope it does not double back.

    • There is plenty of support for the storm SST wise in that area including the Gulf Stream. Anticipated interaction with Nicole is what I believe is weakening the forecast at this point. Either way, it would not be a good thing for the recovery efforts.

  2. The ‘doom sayers’ at the time said: “It’s going to come back you will see” and “it’s coming back”. The cyclone? Cyclone Tracey (Darwin NT, Australia) 1974. I was there

    Even if Matthew did come back. There is nothing you can do about it. Only to batten down.

    Regards
    Climate Heretic

    • Wasn’t Betsy the one that curved around and then came back and crossed Fla south of Ft. Lauderdale. I was living there then and I seem to recall a Hurricane that did the loop around.

      • Hurricane Betsy stalled off the east coast of Florida and then changed direction toward Miami and the Gulf. This happens frequently with hurricanes. They are like tops and will change direction with the slightest push.

  3. After the hurricane is done with the Florida coast, I assume pseudo environmental agencies/feds will rise up and use this occasion to rob and intimidate those with property in that region…… of those very properties under the guise of conservation to avert another disaster in the future.

    • They will use tax dollars to help people rebuild in the same idiotic spots where idiots have been building their idiotic homes for eternity. Only they will do it in an environmentally aware and sustainable fashion, making an 520 square foot single-wide cost about $720K to rebuild. Ah, govmint, you gotta love it.

      • You mean the same idiotic spots where there are wild fires, tornadoes, ice and snow storms, straight line winds, floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcanoes, land and mud slides, sink holes, heat waves, etc………and dust devils

  4. Saw the tracks this morning and thought Matthew would skirt Florida with some bad but not horrible weather then head out into the Atlantic like a good hurricane. Missing me completely. Now the tracks show it has chance to take another run at me. Of course by that point some of the models had it hitting Indiana. Lots of storms this year are getting stuck somewhere along the Atlantic coast instead of zooming off to the NE.

    • And…

      Crossing the Country and re-emerging out in the Pacific, heading North into the Gulf of Alaska and slamming into Anchorage as a “1st” time ever, a Category “5” Hurricane Blizzard with sustained winds exceeding 155mph with up to “20” feet of snow in some locations !

      A [Global Warming] Hurricane “Blizzard” ?

      Wow Man, the weather is becoming extremely weird ???

      Go Figure

  5. Years ago I went to a Van Halen Concert and a Hurricane Matthew broke out…

    “Here we go round and round and round, run, run around and round and a run round” !

    They’re givin Me the Run-Around ?

    Go figure ???

  6. Hurricanes are subject to “forcing” forces.

    The forcing which causes hurricanes’ tracks to double the measured angle of their travel to 360 degrees is known as “path sensitivity.”

    Loving lovers of the environment know that path sensitivity is purely due to the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by American hating deniers.

    Deny it all you want, haters. You’re causing the destruction that will come from this path sensitivity loop. Repent and be saved! Make your checks to “The Consensus” and mail them to “Our Savior of the Lowered Waters” c/o IRS, Washington DC.

    Now shut up, deniers!

    /sarc.

    • I’ve been determining a “Path Sensitivity Reconstruction Model” (PSRM) which proves that the hurricane path sensitivity is based primarily on the Global Wind Turbine Concentration Factor (GWTCF). I am amazed that people do not understand the worldwide effects on Tropical Cyclone Path Sensitivity (TCPS) due to the massive numbers of man-made wind turbines and their effects on hurricanes. It’s just common sense, really.

      From these numbers, I have projected a number of Representative Path Sensitivity Reconstruction Models (RPSRM). RPSRM 8.6 assumes that the number of wind turbines will continue to grow at the current expansion rates (exponentially) without UN intervention. I don’t have to tell you what a disaster this would be for the TCPS models. The entire world will be swamped with competing Tropical Cyclones battling it out in tournament style.

      The computer model proves it!

      • And once you homogenize the data collected in the Tropical Cyclone Path Sensitivity (TCPS) global measurement database, gridding out the whole world into 3 meter squares, in-filling where there is no wind turbine, smearing data across entire continents where there is no turbine, correcting the historical turbine counts to reflect current consensus views of the number of turbines which by all rights should have been installed in 1932, the Representative Path Sensitivity Reconstruction Models (RPSRM) becomes our go-to solution for guiding political decisions related to hurricane paths.

        Unless you’re a hating-hater-denier.

        In that case you can drown in your deplorable basket!

  7. Hurricane Betsy 51 years ago…it made the loop off of the east coast of florida, then cut across florida into the gulf of mexico and right up the mississippi river in new orleans…as an 8 year old, i lived through it…this one and many more afterwards…

  8. I bet the alarmists are hoping for something unusual so they can do a Madame LeFarge and cry out, “J’accuse!” and pin it on some apologists who will readily fall upon their knees and repent their sins. Actually though, it seems more like a fairy tale than A Tale of Two Cities. ;-)

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