Models suggest hurricane #Matthew could hit Florida twice

Last night, hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue noted that the GFS model started to act a bit “loopy” when it came to forecasting the track of Hurricane Matthew.

He notes:

GFS 00z one of those head-scratchers … it’s a (unlikely possibility but let’s get through the next 48-hours first.

mattew-huricane-gfs-loop

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783556526090903552

Due to an interaction between the two storms, Matthew may get forced back towards the USA after making a turn to the northeast:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783537696190889984

Dr. Roy Spencer noted this morning that NHC had the possibility in their forecast discussion:

 

This is a large departure from previous forecasts, and the National Hurricane Center’s discussion this morning is just hinting at the new scenario where Matthew does not recurve poleward the way most hurricanes do.

Such unusual hurricane tracks are particularly difficult to forecast, and I suspect the NHC forecasters are beginning to tear their hair out over this storm.

loopy-matthew

We live in interesting times.

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John F.
October 5, 2016 10:17 am

Has something like this ever happened before?

lonetown
Reply to  John F.
October 5, 2016 10:45 am

Hurricane Agnes did something of a loop. As a tropical storm it turned inland over NY and looped at Elmira and came back over southern NY. It was 3 days of heavy rain.

a
Reply to  John F.
October 5, 2016 11:14 am

John, if i’m not mistaken, katrina did the same sort of thing. (difficult to remember ’cause my katrina memories are all viewed through the lense of PTSD) Looks likes deja vu all over again to moi…

Menicholas
Reply to  John F.
October 5, 2016 11:22 am

Ivan. 2004.

Reply to  Menicholas
October 5, 2016 11:48 am

Hurricane Mitch, in 1998, had a wild track: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=echw4ZL7VAU

Reply to  John F.
October 5, 2016 12:36 pm

Gulf hurricanes loop often just because of the nature of the basin. Atlantic hurricanes don’t loop nearly as often — when they do, it is usually a spinning in one spot for a while until it decides which way to go (see Agnes in 1972).
The Beyblade mode seems very unusual.

Reply to  lorcanbonda
October 5, 2016 5:01 pm

If nobody understands Beyblades — how about Battling Tops?
Hurricanes are like tops — a slight push can move them in any direction, but the spin keeps them going. When two hit, they can go in any direction.

Reply to  John F.
October 5, 2016 6:54 pm

Edith, 1963. It looped around, off the coast of NC, headed back down the coast towards Florida, then looped around and went north again, all over a period of 9 days. I think they referred to the initial loop as a hairpin turn (I remember some storm of my youth doing what they called a hairpin turn, but can’t remember which one).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1963atl.gif

Reply to  pinroot
October 6, 2016 12:33 pm

Oops, correction, it was hard to follow those low resolution lines. The hurricane I mentioned was actually Hurricane Ginny…comment image

October 5, 2016 10:18 am

I was assured the science was settled..

Latitude
October 5, 2016 10:18 am
Latitude
Reply to  Latitude
October 5, 2016 10:19 am

…click on forward

Myron Mesecke
October 5, 2016 10:21 am

Twice?
The first thing we will hear is, “It’s worse than we thought.”

emsnews
October 5, 2016 10:21 am

Just like Camille! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/
Click on that to get a list of all known hurricanes except from 1890to 1924.

Reply to  emsnews
October 5, 2016 4:34 pm

point of order – Camille was *not* a looper. It went pretty straight from the Caribbean to the Mississippi Gulf Coast…and wiped it clean.

Resourceguy
October 5, 2016 10:24 am

Climate change causes loopy storms. Don’t ya know

Bruce Cobb
October 5, 2016 10:24 am

If it does do it, then it will due to “climate change”.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 5, 2016 10:31 am

Jinx!

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 5, 2016 10:33 am

Too true. Any weird weather is automatically “climate change”.

Reply to  Tom Halla
October 5, 2016 10:37 am

sadly… it’s ” any weather” is automatically ” human induced ” climate change.

Acidohm
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 5, 2016 10:48 am

Or Global Weirding!!

MarkW
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 5, 2016 12:35 pm

If the weather is not exactly the same as it was last year, it’s “climate change”.

Pop Piasa
October 5, 2016 11:05 am

Maybe this will suck enough heat out of the coastal waters to starve any others that move in. Won’t help the gulf, though.

Menicholas
Reply to  Pop Piasa
October 5, 2016 11:43 am

In 2004 and 2005, a great many storms passed over the same waters in succession, and many of the later ones had plenty of fuel.
http://www.recmod.com/hurricane/hurricane2004/2004-season.jpg
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/track.gif

joelobryan
Reply to  Menicholas
October 5, 2016 12:12 pm

If you examine the track of Wilma, you’ll see anecdotal support for Pop’s cooled surface water-subsequent Hurricane cyclone energy conjecture.

MarkW
Reply to  Menicholas
October 5, 2016 12:37 pm

Depends on what you mean by same waters.
Also the chart gives no indication of how far apart the various storms were in time, or what time of year.

Reply to  Menicholas
October 5, 2016 12:37 pm

Storms often follow the same path in the same year because the conditions that create them haven’t changed.

ossqss
October 5, 2016 11:16 am
Wim Röst
Reply to  ossqss
October 5, 2016 11:24 am

But, with much less power, more as a normal depression. Look at the numbers of isobars.

Menicholas
Reply to  Wim Röst
October 5, 2016 11:38 am

Yes but people will be trying to cleanup and get tarps on roofs, and other such measures, and will be severely hampered by an extended windy and rainy period.
The forecast had previously been for dry conditions to move in after the storm.
Plus, intensity forecasts that far out are not worth much…if it makes a bigger loop it will pass over plenty more warm water and have time to reorganize and strengthen.
Lets hope it does not double back.

ossqss
Reply to  ossqss
October 5, 2016 11:41 am

There is plenty of support for the storm SST wise in that area including the Gulf Stream. Anticipated interaction with Nicole is what I believe is weakening the forecast at this point. Either way, it would not be a good thing for the recovery efforts.

Climate Heretic
October 5, 2016 11:23 am

The ‘doom sayers’ at the time said: “It’s going to come back you will see” and “it’s coming back”. The cyclone? Cyclone Tracey (Darwin NT, Australia) 1974. I was there
Even if Matthew did come back. There is nothing you can do about it. Only to batten down.
Regards
Climate Heretic

ossqss
Reply to  Climate Heretic
October 5, 2016 11:44 am

comment image

ossqss
Reply to  ossqss
October 5, 2016 11:46 am

And both were powerful storms.

Climate Heretic
October 5, 2016 11:24 am

Sorry, Tracey should have been Tracy.
Regards
Climate Heretic

Reply to  Climate Heretic
October 6, 2016 1:07 am

I’m going with Traci. Cute girl.

Sierra Tango
October 5, 2016 11:24 am

Hurrican Betsy took such a path in 1965

Randy Dailey
Reply to  Sierra Tango
October 5, 2016 11:39 am

Wasn’t Betsy the one that curved around and then came back and crossed Fla south of Ft. Lauderdale. I was living there then and I seem to recall a Hurricane that did the loop around.

Reply to  Randy Dailey
October 6, 2016 6:27 am

Hurricane Betsy stalled off the east coast of Florida and then changed direction toward Miami and the Gulf. This happens frequently with hurricanes. They are like tops and will change direction with the slightest push.

ElderX
Reply to  Sierra Tango
October 5, 2016 4:35 pm

yep and slammed Louisiana

Barbara Skolaut
October 5, 2016 11:33 am

Climate Change! We’re all gonna dieeeeeee!!!!!!!!!
/sarc Or not.
Well, eventually . . . .

kenin
October 5, 2016 12:24 pm

After the hurricane is done with the Florida coast, I assume pseudo environmental agencies/feds will rise up and use this occasion to rob and intimidate those with property in that region…… of those very properties under the guise of conservation to avert another disaster in the future.

Mark from the Midwest
Reply to  kenin
October 5, 2016 12:54 pm

They will use tax dollars to help people rebuild in the same idiotic spots where idiots have been building their idiotic homes for eternity. Only they will do it in an environmentally aware and sustainable fashion, making an 520 square foot single-wide cost about $720K to rebuild. Ah, govmint, you gotta love it.

Latitude
Reply to  Mark from the Midwest
October 6, 2016 6:30 am

You mean the same idiotic spots where there are wild fires, tornadoes, ice and snow storms, straight line winds, floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcanoes, land and mud slides, sink holes, heat waves, etc………and dust devils

fred4d
October 5, 2016 12:54 pm

Saw the tracks this morning and thought Matthew would skirt Florida with some bad but not horrible weather then head out into the Atlantic like a good hurricane. Missing me completely. Now the tracks show it has chance to take another run at me. Of course by that point some of the models had it hitting Indiana. Lots of storms this year are getting stuck somewhere along the Atlantic coast instead of zooming off to the NE.

Reply to  fred4d
October 5, 2016 3:13 pm

And…
Crossing the Country and re-emerging out in the Pacific, heading North into the Gulf of Alaska and slamming into Anchorage as a “1st” time ever, a Category “5” Hurricane Blizzard with sustained winds exceeding 155mph with up to “20” feet of snow in some locations !
A [Global Warming] Hurricane “Blizzard” ?
Wow Man, the weather is becoming extremely weird ???
Go Figure

Mumbles McGuirck
October 5, 2016 1:09 pm
Curious George
October 5, 2016 1:09 pm

Supercomputers are busy forecasting Year 2100 climate.

Catcracking
October 5, 2016 2:22 pm

Interesting Surface Wind data from NOAA show very a small area of Hurricane force winds at surface, larger area of tropical storm winds. This may explain why ground and Buoy data does not reflect 140 MPH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153139.shtml?radii#contents
Looks like wind velocities are being hyped inadvertently (mislead by NOAA?) by media since the entire story is not being told?

Roy Spencer
October 5, 2016 2:57 pm

Loopy hurricanes are the inevitable result of imbibing in too much carbon dioxide.

October 5, 2016 3:04 pm

Years ago I went to a Van Halen Concert and a Hurricane Matthew broke out…
“Here we go round and round and round, run, run around and round and a run round” !
They’re givin Me the Run-Around ?
Go figure ???

yarpos
October 5, 2016 4:16 pm

Mmmmm, models

October 5, 2016 4:51 pm

Hurricanes are subject to “forcing” forces.
The forcing which causes hurricanes’ tracks to double the measured angle of their travel to 360 degrees is known as “path sensitivity.”
Loving lovers of the environment know that path sensitivity is purely due to the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by American hating deniers.
Deny it all you want, haters. You’re causing the destruction that will come from this path sensitivity loop. Repent and be saved! Make your checks to “The Consensus” and mail them to “Our Savior of the Lowered Waters” c/o IRS, Washington DC.
Now shut up, deniers!
/sarc.

Reply to  kentclizbe
October 6, 2016 6:23 am

I’ve been determining a “Path Sensitivity Reconstruction Model” (PSRM) which proves that the hurricane path sensitivity is based primarily on the Global Wind Turbine Concentration Factor (GWTCF). I am amazed that people do not understand the worldwide effects on Tropical Cyclone Path Sensitivity (TCPS) due to the massive numbers of man-made wind turbines and their effects on hurricanes. It’s just common sense, really.
From these numbers, I have projected a number of Representative Path Sensitivity Reconstruction Models (RPSRM). RPSRM 8.6 assumes that the number of wind turbines will continue to grow at the current expansion rates (exponentially) without UN intervention. I don’t have to tell you what a disaster this would be for the TCPS models. The entire world will be swamped with competing Tropical Cyclones battling it out in tournament style.
The computer model proves it!

Reply to  lorcanbonda
October 6, 2016 1:12 pm

And once you homogenize the data collected in the Tropical Cyclone Path Sensitivity (TCPS) global measurement database, gridding out the whole world into 3 meter squares, in-filling where there is no wind turbine, smearing data across entire continents where there is no turbine, correcting the historical turbine counts to reflect current consensus views of the number of turbines which by all rights should have been installed in 1932, the Representative Path Sensitivity Reconstruction Models (RPSRM) becomes our go-to solution for guiding political decisions related to hurricane paths.
Unless you’re a hating-hater-denier.
In that case you can drown in your deplorable basket!

October 6, 2016 7:20 am

Hurricane Betsy 51 years ago…it made the loop off of the east coast of florida, then cut across florida into the gulf of mexico and right up the mississippi river in new orleans…as an 8 year old, i lived through it…this one and many more afterwards…

Horse Feathers
October 6, 2016 7:45 am

I bet the alarmists are hoping for something unusual so they can do a Madame LeFarge and cry out, “J’accuse!” and pin it on some apologists who will readily fall upon their knees and repent their sins. Actually though, it seems more like a fairy tale than A Tale of Two Cities. 😉

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