Latest hurricane #Matthew forecast spaghetti plots show increased uncertainty with a nightmare scenario

From NASA Goddard:

Satellites from NASA and NOAA have been tracking and analyzing powerful Hurricane Matthew since its birth just east of the Leeward Islands on Sept. 28.

On Oct. 4, 2016, Hurricane Matthew made landfall on southwestern Haiti as a category-4 storm -- the strongest storm to hit the Caribbean nation in more than 50 years. Just hours after landfall, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image. At the time, Matthew had top sustained winds of about 230 kilometers (145 miles) per hour. Credits: NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens
On Oct. 4, 2016, Hurricane Matthew made landfall on southwestern Haiti as a category-4 storm — the strongest storm to hit the Caribbean nation in more than 50 years. Just hours after landfall, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image. At the time, Matthew had top sustained winds of about 230 kilometers (145 miles) per hour. Credits: NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens

On October 4, 2016, Hurricane Matthew made landfall on southwestern Haiti as a category-4 storm–the strongest storm to hit the Caribbean nation in more than 50 years. Just hours after landfall, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired a natural-color image that showed the western extent over the eastern tip of Cuba and the eastern-most extent over Puerto Rico.

At NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland the NASA/NOAA GOES Project combined infrared and visible imagery from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite into an animation of Matthew. The animation of imagery from Oct. 3 to Oct. 5 shows Hurricane Matthew making landfall in Haiti and eastern Cuba then move toward the Bahamas.

On Oct. 5, there were many warnings and watches in effect on Oct. 5 from Cuba to the Bahamas to Florida.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma and Las Tunas; the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island; the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island; the Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. In Florida a Hurricane Warning is in effect from north of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line and Lake Okeechobee.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey and north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti, Turks and Caicos Islands. In Florida a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Chokoloskee to Golden Beach, the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward, and Florida Bay.

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near 21.8 degrees north latitude and 75.2 degrees west longitude. That’s about 55 miles (90 km) north-northwest of Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba and about 105 miles (165 km) south of Long Island, Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said “Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 kph), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening, Oct. 6.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 kph) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3 or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).”

The minimum central pressure reported by both Hurricane Hunter planes was 962 millibars.

An unconfirmed wind gust of 155 mph (250 kph) was reported in Baracoa, Cuba, on the night of Oct. 4 as the eye of Matthew passed nearby.


Meanwhile, the latest spaghetti model runs (18Z) are markedly different than yesterday, showing loops and wider curves out into the Atlantic. Click for much larger images.



While some models show landfall through Florida, many others show it away from the coast, and never actually making landfall at all.

Link to .kmz file is here if you want to look at it in Google Earth yourself.

Do a right click and “save as”, complete download, double click it and it will open Google Earth (assuming you have it installed) . See the model output in “temporary places” folder in the left sidebar pane. Loads of data available that you can enable and disable with checkboxes.

Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue had this to say:

Paul Dorian of Vencore weather seems to think (as we did earlier) that we may have a loopback on our hands. He writes:

After its arrival in east-central Florida – perhaps even as a category 4 (major) hurricane – Hurricane Matthew is likely to slide parallel to the coastline of northeast Florida and Georgia before beginning to turn more sharply to the northeast near the South Carolina/North Carolina border region.  This sharp right turn will likely be the beginning of a loop to be made by Matthew which will quite likely prevent it from moving close to the Mid-Atlantic region.  In fact, this expected loop by Matthew could actually result in a second hit to hit the Bahamas/Florida region sometime next week – albeit in a weakened state.  While somewhat unusual, it is not unprecedented for Atlantic Basin tropical systems to move in a looping fashion at some point during their lifetime; especially, during the latter stages of the tropical season when weather systems can slow down due to atmospheric blocking patterns.

Latest computer forecast models tend to agree on an eventual looping pattern for Matthew which will become influenced by a deep upper-level trough moving east from the middle of the country.  Another factor in the ultimate track of Matthew will be Tropical Storm Nicole which currently sits out over the central Atlantic.  These two systems could “dance around” each other for a number of days and we may just end up dealing with Matthew near the Southeast US coastline later next week.  The 12Z GFS forecast maps feature an arrival of Hurricane Matthew near or at the east-central coast of Florida early tomorrow (map above) and then there might be a return visit around Monday night (map below) after a complete loop over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The low pressure system seen to the east of Matthew on both forecast maps is Tropical Storm Nicole.  While the center of Matthew could stay south of the North Carolina coastline, heavy rain and strong winds could actually extend northward well into North Carolina and perhaps even into southeastern Virginia.


It’s a forecasting and evacuation nightmare at this point. Maue adds the nightmare model scenario:

Meanwhile, despite the increased uncertainty, the usual doomsters are out in force:

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October 5, 2016 1:30 pm

Maue’s comments missing at end.

Reply to  rokshox
October 5, 2016 1:31 pm

Nevermind. Disable ad-blocker to see.

Curious George
October 5, 2016 1:34 pm

Never mind a mere hurricane. Climate forecasts are more important (and reliable).

October 5, 2016 1:37 pm

From FB Skeptical Scientists against CAGW
“Hurricane Felix was a category 5 when it hit Florida in 2007, and Matthew is now at category 3 and expected to increase to 4 when (and if), it hits the SE coast yet, they have “…never seen anything like it”?
Is it any wonder people don’t believe their bullshit any more?”
Can anybody fact check this?

Reply to  Nicholas Schroeder
October 5, 2016 1:53 pm

Hurricane Felix did not hit Florida — it hit Nicaragua as a Category 5 & weakened quickly. It was a Cat 1 by the time it hit El Salvador.
Matthew is a strange storm. So, they may have “never seen anything like it”, but Andrew and Hugo were also pretty big storms to hit between Florida and South Carolina.

Bryan A
Reply to  lorcanbonda
October 5, 2016 2:34 pm

Hurricane Wilma hit Fla in 2005 and crossed the southern tip as a Cat 2-3comment image
Also in 2005, Hurricane Katrina srossed the southern tip of Fla as a Cat 1 before moving on to Lacomment image
In 2004 Hurricane Jeanne hit the southern tip of Fla as a Cat 3comment image
Also in 2004 Hurricane Charley struck Fla on the Gulf Coast side as a Cat 4comment image
But in 2007 I couldn’t find ant Cat 5 storms striking the US

Reply to  lorcanbonda
October 5, 2016 3:08 pm

But in 2007 I couldn’t find ant Cat 5 storms striking the US

That’s because Wilma was the last major hurricane to hit the US. Wilma was also the last hurricane to hit Florida until this year.

Reply to  Nicholas Schroeder
October 6, 2016 6:32 am

Most of the other hurricanes hit and came ashore. Matthew is unusual in that it looks like it is going to drag along most of Florida’s east coast, as a cat 3-4.

Frederik Michiels
Reply to  MarkW
October 12, 2016 2:11 am

hurricane David did the same thing in 1979 and quite some others did. so though unusual, nothing’s unprecendented about this.
in the end the most damaging winds stayed over sea and on places where hurricane force winds were experienced, they never got higher then category 1 strength….

Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 1:40 pm

Re: increased uncertainty (Whee! Now, the fun begins! 🙂 )
IT COULD ENGULF THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, …… no…. wait………..a……………. minute………………. . We are now more uncertain, gentlemen and ladies, THIS storm is the SUPER-SOAKER OF THE UNIVERSE!!! It could engulf the entire PLANET!
Well. That’s what our models say.
Just like global warming. It’s a PLANETARY EMERGENCY!

george e. smith
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 5:25 pm

Well I have a house just outside the shoreline (East) of the largest lake in the USA west of the Mississippi River; Tulare Lake.
Lemore Naval Air Station, and the city of Hanford California are both right in the middle of Tulare Lake.
If Mathew veers any further to the West, we could have one of the biggest dust storms that they have ever seen in the heart of California’s Orange growing region; and cotton too. Just imagine the monster pillow fight with all those cotton bolls blowing around.
But I do hope this mess stays out in the Atlantic, although it seems too late for Haiti. Howcum it is Haiti, and not the Dominican Republic that always takes the shellacking ??

Reply to  george e. smith
October 6, 2016 12:09 am

@ George e.: “Howcum it is Haiti, and not the Dominican Republic that always takes the shellacking ??”
Could that have to do with (if you look at a map of the Island , as I know you have) that the DR has trees left on it compared to the bare rock that Haiti has become since the Clinton’s Foundation and Bush has “spent billions” on the “re-construction” ( read destruction) of that part of the island?.
To me any storm would take the path of the least resistance . That I think is the reason it might have slipped between Haiti and Cuba as well but that is just my speculation.
No matter what, it is a disaster for any of these people that should have been way better off by now since the earthquake, after all there hasn’t been a disaster since then. But I guess the gold mine is fine.

Reply to  george e. smith
October 6, 2016 6:35 am

Those trees were cut down decades ago. I’ve seen similar pictures going back at least to the 1970’s. The existence of trees makes very little difference. The difference is that the DR is much wealthier than is Haiti. (No where close to US standards, but not the bottom of the barrel as is Haiti.)
Thus they can afford stronger houses and better emergency services.

Joe Crawford
Reply to  george e. smith
October 6, 2016 8:17 am

“Howcum it is Haiti… ” Cus Haiti’s on the wrong end of the island?

Stewart Pid
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 10:29 pm

The mother of all hurricanes, a veritable sharkicane & worse than we thought to boot!!

Gary Pearse
October 5, 2016 1:42 pm

Cooler central and eastern Atlantic seems to make recent storms more restricted to quick development in the Western Atlantic rather than the standard gradual start off the West African coastal waters. Does this effect their ‘durability’?

October 5, 2016 2:09 pm

I left Daytona this afternoon and am now in Orlando. This storm is dangerous and most of eastern Florida should prepare just as if we were expecting a direct hit on our own house.
The problem as I see it is that weather reports in Florida have been so over the top for the last decade that many will not pay as much attention to the reports and advise as they should. I hope and pray that from Miami to Jacksonville, my fellow Floridians prepare for a major storm. I am doing so.

Janice Moore
Reply to  markstoval
October 5, 2016 2:35 pm

Keep safe, Mark. Glad you are being careful. We need you here!

Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 5:01 pm

About 10 feet before the lowest garage level begins to flood. Which is why all lowest garage level cars have now been moved to the ‘ground level’ another 10 feet up by building valet.Including my wife’s. Our ten acres were carefully designed with such events in mind after Andrew. Berms, dunes, and careful contour landscaping with genset supplied pumps.

Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 5:09 pm

Just move this reply down below ScottR to be comprehensible. Must be my hurricane freight guidiness. Lowering pressure, and all that…

Reply to  markstoval
October 5, 2016 3:11 pm

We finished hurricane prep about 3 hours ago. GoBag was stocked years ago, so no shopping hassles. Wife went to her rental triplex to unlock outdoor closet with storm shutters so tenants can put them up. We are under a voluntary evacuation order (on the barrier island east of the intercoastal and A1A, directly on the Atlantic in north Fort Lauderdale–wonderful beach with the wonderful first of 3 coral reefs just a few hundred meters offshore. We will shelter in place. Took a direct hit from Wilma as a strong Cat 2. Took 18 months to repair the 10 acre grounds, but the twin condo towers were fine (reinforced concrete sitting on footings down to bedrock, with post Andrew 150 mph hurricane glass everywhere. Quarter inch thick aluminum 4 inch high sills double bolted into concrete every foot. Just lubed and checked all the sliding door latches to make sure they lock. Never lost water with Wilma although we will prep that final detail tomorrow morning just in case. Each Building has a big nat gas fired spark ignited emergency genset to maintain essential services (elevators, common area lighting, emergency services, security), and is supplied from underground cables. Wilma had us electrically down otherwise for about 12 hours until FPL restored the substation. I am more worried about the possible loop back than the first pass– the real bad stuff will be well north of Fort Lauderdale beach. But a loop back means we would have to prep twice. Bummer.

Janice Moore
Reply to  ristvan
October 5, 2016 4:10 pm

Take care, Rud (and wife! <– a happy end to your story shared on Anthony's personal thread last summer, I hope… ??)

Reply to  ristvan
October 5, 2016 4:11 pm

I don’t know… How much storm surge can you stand?

Reply to  ristvan
October 5, 2016 5:45 pm

I am more worried about the possible loop back than the first pass– it will come back as a low, don’t worry

South River Independent
Reply to  ristvan
October 5, 2016 9:39 pm

Have you read John D. McDonald’s “Condominium”? It is about a condo that was built on inferior footings.
I was in Pensacola in 1969 when Camille, a Cat 5, missed us and hit Waveland, Mississippi. It did suck all of the water out of the swimming pool a couple hundred feet from our apartment. As a Navy Ensign, I spent most of my time prepping some of the area’s Navy bases in the days leading up to the storm’s arrival. The day before, I supervised the storm prep of the Aviation Officer Candidates’ barracks at Saufely Field. My wife rode out the storm in our ground floor apartment rather than join some friends on the second floor. A friend’s trailer in a nearby park was moved off its supports.

Joel O’Bryan
October 5, 2016 2:15 pm

A few Notable CONUS landfalling hurricanes of the last 25 years.
Andrew- 1992
CONUS land fall: Cat 4
Ivan – 2004
CONUS land fall: Cat 3comment image
Katrina – 2005
CONUS land fall 1: Cat1 in South FL
CONUS land fall 2: Cat 3 near NOLAcomment image
Rita – 2005
CONUS Land fall: Cat 3
Wilma – 2005
CONUS land fall: Cat 3
Ike – 2008
CONUS land fall: Cat 2comment image

Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
October 6, 2016 12:23 am

I noticed this before and as I see it most if not all, as cat3 or higher seem to follow the paths of least resistance . I wonder if that has been “modelled” into the equations? EvenIke seem to lose strength over Cuba to regain it over the Gulf. Most of them stayed over water ( heat source and easier).

Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
October 6, 2016 6:25 am

I did a rough estimated rain fall on the continent from ike as about 1/4 to 1/3 of Lake Erie (I spent the day driving through all of the bad weather it caused).
It is an incredible amount of water.
An incredible amount to evaporate, haul a couple thousand miles. And all of that energy of condensation lost to space. Look at the work done.
So, as we watch Matthew, that’s what a significant part of a great lake looks like flying across the world on it’s own.

P. Walker
October 5, 2016 2:18 pm

Sitting on the coast of Georgia approximately 100 yards from the Atlantic. Hope this beast turns east.

October 5, 2016 2:23 pm

I was in Australia when a cyclone came in at N. Queensland, crossed the top of the continent, slid down the west coast a ways, then SE across the continent to soak Melbourne. Now that was persistence.

October 5, 2016 2:25 pm

meanwhile, the hype is category 11
and they are making paper so there can be citations later like ‘the storm was so fearsome the governor had to declare a state of emergency!’ (that’s gonna feed the narrative if the hurricane doesn’t hit)

Tom in Florida
Reply to  gnomish
October 5, 2016 5:34 pm

The reason for the emergency declaration by the Governor is to set into motion a schedule of events that take a while to accomplish. It authorizes the State to spend the money that is set aside for these plans. This includes pre-positioning of supplies, National Guard call ups and other pre storm actions. The saying here is that individuals are on their own for 2-3 days, the County government will help for a few more days after that but the State resources take about a week to get to where they are needed.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
October 7, 2016 10:00 am

that’s a good one
mind if i use it next time i run into a fire house yelling ‘MOVIE!’?

Michael Bentley
October 5, 2016 2:26 pm

Mark is a voice of reason in a shouting match of hysteria.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Michael Bentley
October 5, 2016 2:34 pm

Mark (Stoval, I presume) is, indeed, a voice of prudence. However, our exaggeration and parodying of the hysteria and shouting of the global warming (“biggest” “worst” “unprecedented”) crowd is not a “shouting match.”
One side, iow, is shouting, the other is mocking them.

NW sage
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 5:18 pm

Perhaps we have a consensus – and all that implies? All hypothetical guesses must therefore be true because there is a consensus (or there once was)!

October 5, 2016 2:31 pm

It is highly likely that Matthew has reduced to a Hurricane 3 status as a result of TS Nicole taking the air flow away.

Reply to  ozonebust
October 5, 2016 3:30 pm

No, it was the mountains of Cuba that disrupted the west side and even partly collapsed the eyewall. Matthew is reorganizing, helped by lots of warm 30C water around the Bahamas and low wind shear. Will reach Florida as a renewed Cat 4. Not good, but pretty certain.

Reply to  ristvan
October 5, 2016 3:53 pm


Tom in Florida
Reply to  ristvan
October 5, 2016 5:29 pm

The waters of the Bahamas are fairly shallow so that will impede strengthening, however, as soon as it is over the deeper, extremely warm waters between the Bahamas and Florida it could undergo a dramatic intensification in a very short time.

October 5, 2016 2:32 pm

There is a strong time frame dependency to the forecast uncertainty. The 1700 cone of uncertainty just released by NHC has narrowed appreciably from the last one at 1200 through 2pm Friday. Looks like landfall north of Jupiter all the way up through at least Daytona, all as a Cat 4. Coastal central Florida is going to be damaged big time. Still shifting west with each new version. Then the cone sharply widens (more uncertainty), and the 5 day track is now starting to show the loop, although with very large uncertainty. Accessible directly or via Wunderground.

Reply to  ristvan
October 5, 2016 4:44 pm

rud…something ain’t right again
HH plane went in late this afternoon…and only recorded winds to support a cat 2
NHC is still calling it a cat 3

Reply to  Latitude
October 5, 2016 4:46 pm

Rob!…..I’m laying down typing LOL

October 5, 2016 2:44 pm

The problem is that many meteorological types are so invested in the “global warming causes……” crapola that every forecast becomes a nightmare scenario. We poor lay folk don’t know what to believe anymore.

Michael Jankowski
October 5, 2016 2:57 pm

I can imagine an unlimited number of ways in which this hurricane will be described as “unprecedented” due to climate change.
I am more worried about people below Lake O than i am most of the Atlantic coast of FL.

October 5, 2016 3:19 pm

If you can get past the political comments, you might want to check out the weather analysis at the 1pacificredwood YouTube channel.

October 5, 2016 3:31 pm

“better get the sugar boats up on the shore
looks like a hurricane comin’ along”
Bay of Mexico by the Kingston Trio circa 1960 somebody with greater facility could post the U tube version a great little song

Janice Moore
Reply to  fossilsage
October 5, 2016 4:31 pm

Here ya go, fossilsage (in appreciation for the back-up with ol’ kenin):
This oldie but a goodie goes out to….. fossilsage on Watts Up In Music, FM 105.16, your “go to source for ‘gee whiz’ music!
“Bay of Mexico”


Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 6:09 pm

Thank you Janis, when I went there to listen I stumbled on the “Merry Minuet” whose first line is “There’s Hurricanes in Florida”…I love lots of their songs but consider “Desert Pete” to be my personal theme song!

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 7:36 pm

My pleasure, fossilsage, er, I mean “Desert Pete.” 🙂

Smokey (Can't do a thing about wildfires)
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 6, 2016 5:38 am

Oooooh, now you’ve gone & dredged up memories of riding with my folks up & back on US-101 from San Jose to Long Beach, WA… how Charlie kept singing about some dream-girl named Mariah while he was stuck on the MTA for lack of a quarter… how you had to prime the pump or your lemon tree would make sour fruit… how some big, strong preacher man who just wouldn’t hit nobody back even if they had it coming just couldn’t seem to remember the name of the Reuben James…
I was little and may be misremembering some of this. ~_^ Good times, good times.

October 5, 2016 3:51 pm

Looks more and more like this hurricane which is a major storm, not trivial, is going to perhaps (we can’t tell!) go in a huge circle…this happened in the past more than once, hurricanes originally were named after us females because they are so capricious and temperamental.

Janice Moore
Reply to  emsnews
October 5, 2016 4:15 pm

Oh, emsnews, you KNOW it wasn’t that (men can be very temperamental — well, they like to pretend they aren’t, though, so of course the mostly male name-bestowers WOULD go with female names, lololol).
Rather, it was that women are powerful and exciting!
(this is all just for fun, dear mostly male WUWTers — Vive la difference!)

Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 5:57 pm

A woman can wreck your place and there’s basically nothing you can do about it.

Phil R
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 6:25 pm

I think that most everyone on this site (though I don’t presume to speak for anybody except me) are sane enough to get the gist of and enjoy your comments. It’s a sad commentary on the current state of political correctness that your final caveat is almost obligatory.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 7:44 pm

Thank you, Phil R! You made my evening. Yes, OH, yes. I have been “trained.” Since 2013, I have been roundly rebuked on occasion (by men) for joking along those lines (and along many lines — my sense of humor is too silly for some, poor “John”….. HE REALLY got mad one time (just for being too silly), heh. Oh. Well.). Pretty touchy subject — but, FUN!
And, while you clearly are not asking for one, I apologize for the patronizing “don’t throw tomatoes at me!” disclaimer (here and for all the times I am going to do it in the future!). It is not intended for MOST of you — but, once (actually about 12 times!) bitten, twice shy. Not going to get THAT tomato thrown at me again.

Phil R
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 8:07 pm

I couldn’t throw ‘maters if i wanted to, anyway. I’ve tried growing them off and on for several years and they just don’t do well in my yard. Watch out for the green peppers though!!

Phil R
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 8:09 pm

Dang, “I,” not “i.”

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 8:24 pm

Oh, green peppers are fine (just so they are not old and mushy). lolololol They’ll just bounce off.

Reply to  Janice Moore
October 6, 2016 12:35 am

@ Phil R, I couldn’t grow tomatoes either but then a lady gave us some seeds that were from Russia and were grown in Siberia, they are called Fakels. Unbelievable results ! Try to find some seeds some where . Even I couldn’t kill them!

October 5, 2016 4:21 pm

What odds are the bookmakers giving?

Reply to  toorightmate
October 5, 2016 5:10 pm

Those odds can’t be good for Florida . It sure is looking like our record hiatus from majors is going to end soon. All I could say was Uh Oh when it made that left hook over the north coast of Cuba. But I have freight to haul. Just got in and am heading for Philly tomorrow with a refer full of Nestles product. Would rather be here monitoring what is going on. Tougher to keep up while on the road. Imagine the USAF, USA, and USN have their aircraft based in Florida headed to points north or west and the USN is sending any surface units at risk out of harms way. Imagine the fields of the Eglin AFB complex and Pensacola NAS are filling up now. Now it’s off to bed for a 05:00 departure.

Janice Moore
Reply to  RAH
October 5, 2016 5:18 pm

Stay safe, out there, O Warrior Driver (and well-informed commenter!). 🙂
Praying as usual (daily).

Phil R
Reply to  RAH
October 5, 2016 6:30 pm

(Channeling Homer Simpson) “mmmmm Nestles product.” Coming through Norfolk by any chance? :>)

Reply to  RAH
October 6, 2016 1:13 am

I lived in Orlando for one year in 1963-64. Besides filling the bathtub for drinking water, what I remember most was the B-52 wing at McCoy AFB (S. of Orlando) flying out over the house heading North.

Janice Moore
Reply to  toorightmate
October 5, 2016 5:21 pm

Well, tooroitmite (smile), one of the U.S.’s finest hurricane experts, Dr. Klotzbach, would likely tell you to bet against landfall north of Miami ( ).

tony mcleod
October 5, 2016 6:17 pm

This is an informative site, just click on the storm and then the different sat pics, etc.

tony mcleod
Reply to  tony mcleod
October 5, 2016 7:20 pm
October 5, 2016 7:39 pm

Global Human Sharknado Apocalypse!
Religious Tents:
Humans Cause Climate Sharknado
Climate Sharknado Kills Humans
Dan-O, “Guilty as found!”
Wade-O, “Right On. Can U Dig It?”

Ha ha

Steve Fraser
October 5, 2016 8:17 pm

Looking at the 1800Z sim, the loop back fizzles…

October 5, 2016 8:30 pm

Is it even possible that the storm may not be a Hurricane as (if) it makes
landfall in Florida?

Janice Moore
Reply to  Catcracking
October 5, 2016 9:04 pm

Well, Cat of the oil refining expertise, of course! “With God, all things are possible” and I have been praying that God would “slow the winds and push that hurricane {Matthew} out to sea, away from Florida” for 3 or 4 days, now. We shall see if God says, “Yes!”
(I realize you were looking for a data-based answer — but, just wanted to share that with you!)

South River Independent
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 5, 2016 9:57 pm

Prayer and fasting.

Reply to  Catcracking
October 6, 2016 5:48 am

Janice, Ha, I assume you looked up catcracking, if not do so? It’s been a good life
No I did not expect a data based answer, watching Hermine closely with a boat on the coast I realized NOAA changed the track way too much. to depend on their predictions.
The gods of NOAA have reduced the probability of hurricane force winds at ground level to 70-80% this morning and we know they are always right. Keep Praying
Sarcasm off

Janice Moore
Reply to  Catcracking
October 6, 2016 6:42 am

Hi, Cat,
No, I just recall our pleasant conversation on a thread where you shared some great info. (and video) about airplane fuel history and WWII, etc..
Take care,

Joel O'Bryan
October 5, 2016 9:45 pm

If Matthew gets north of 30N, its taking a trip out into the Atlantic and the loop isn’t gonna happen. If it stays south of 30N, then the looping may happen.

October 5, 2016 10:41 pm
Non Nomen
October 5, 2016 11:55 pm

Whatever happens, there is nothing mankind can do to change the weather. No reason to panic, but for thorough planning and preparation.
Let’s hope for the best and may God be with the people there.

Reply to  Non Nomen
October 6, 2016 12:42 am

Thanks Non Nomen . One of the most sensible comments on this thread. (And there have been many sensible ones).

tony mcleod
Reply to  Non Nomen
October 6, 2016 4:36 am

Apart from cloud seeding.

Reply to  Non Nomen
October 6, 2016 7:52 am

Ah more settled science and certainty from Skeptics.
Let’s see.
You believe that climate is chaotic, that it’s too complicated to understand or model, But you know
that there is nothing we can do to change it. So even though it’s chaotic and the flap of a butterflies
wing can change things, man’s influence is less than a butterflies wing. Sounds a bit contradictory
to me.
Plus, as we know changes in vegetation, can drive the increase or decrease in organic particles
in the atmosphere. As Skeptic Rud points out these particles aid in the creation of clouds.
Just like GCRs
But adding c02 to the atmosphere, yes the trace gas c02, will increase plant growth.. skeptics said so
So when it comes to the trace gas c02 it has some powerful influence on plant can a trace gas have such a strong influence? and who knows
maybe increased vegetation has an influence on CCN and hence on clouds and hence on the weather. Its all so complicated there are many theories, the science is still young we cant rule out that man has an effect on the weather.
I’m relieved that you have figured out the final answer to the question… and all with a wave of your arms
That is why I come here.
The best science EVER!

Janice Moore
Reply to  Steven Mosher
October 6, 2016 10:03 am

Dear $teven M0$her,
1. the flap of a butterflies wing can change things can change nothing but the position of the butterfly, for the air displacement effect of its wings is OVERWHELMED by the supervening causation of forces far more powerful.
2. There is no conclusive evidence that changes in vegetation, so far as a GLOBAL climate impact are concerned, are significantly caused by human CO2 emissions (most if not ALL the CO2 affecting the plants is natural sourced). Again, the rational conclusion is that the TWO ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE LARGER natural drivers of greening overwhelm the tiny potential (not one direct cause–>effect measurement, only correlation) human impact. Further, granted that human CO2 is significantly beneficial to plants, GOOD, i.e., the net effect on climate is benign or beneficial.
3. CO2 {} has some powerful influence on plant can a trace gas have such a strong influence? — Comparing CO2’s powerful effect on photosynthesis to its weak-to-the-point-of-non-existence effect on the climate of the earth (only in a laboratory/closed system like a greenhouse is there any evidence at all that CO2 MIGHT affect the climate of the earth — and not one measurement proves that it is not overwhelmed by other climate drivers) is nonsense.
4. Why you come here…. that remains a mystery. My guess, since you are not ignorant and are a bright man (thus, your way off remarks above are clearly cynically made and intended to fool the ignorant), is that you come to WUWT to promote your enviroprofiteer interests. That is, for you, it appears to be mostly about the money.
Mr. M0sher, many of us at WUWT over the years have sensed that you still have a spark of goodness and truth in your soul. This is evidenced by your sometimes conflicted writing. You love Anthony (as a friend), but, you love money, too. You realize this (perhaps, now, only subconsciously, but the real (I hope) “you” of the spirit is crying out against the dark side of you, the “you” of the flesh (i.e., materialism/money)) yet, you choose to shun the light and dwell in darkness.
COME BACK (you weren’t a cynical, money-serving, little boy, were you?….. You WERE??! Aaaaaaa. Heh, no, I do not believe that)! At least, privately come back. Isn’t the state of your eternal soul FAR more important than making a few bucks before you take that irreversible step across the line of mortality… the finish line is nearer now than it was yesterday. Remember (I recall that you cited Screwtape once, so, I assume you have read C. S. Lewis’ Screwtape Letters): the Ev1l One does not shout, “Reject that truth, Steven!” Oh, no. He simply whispers gently in your ear, “Wait awhile. You’ll always have time… .”
WAKE UP! Time for YOU is going to run out one of these days. The day will come when you will never again be able to leave the darkness.
Your critic here, but truly concerned (and bracing myself for your anger/scorn, but determined not to give up on you),

Non Nomen
Reply to  Steven Mosher
October 7, 2016 12:12 am

I’ve been talking about “weather”. You are talking about climate. Obviously, you haven’t read my posting properly but just took it as a pretext to rant as you have done so often before.
Do your homework and get a life.

Non Nomen
Reply to  Steven Mosher
October 7, 2016 12:14 am

@ Steven Mosher
I’ve been talking about “weather”. You are talking about climate. Obviously, you haven’t read my posting properly but just took it as a pretext to rant as you have done so often before.
Do your homework and get a life.

Frederik Michiels
Reply to  Steven Mosher
October 12, 2016 2:42 am

i had the best laugh ever Steven
i have the best answer to your question: When a storm hits we still have no magickal electromagnetic (or other) wall to break it’s wind, repel the storm surge and so on….
we can do nothing about that except being prepared. or maybe you have a special gun invented to blow away a hurricane into the open sea?
and yes CO2 has a powerfull influence on plant growth because it’s their food. so the ecosystem’s law comes in action: increase the food supply of any living organism and it will prosper.
Or do you think that they increase the CO2 levels in greenhouses just for fun?

October 6, 2016 5:01 am

FYI, this site combines hurricane maps from every conceivable source in one page,

Reply to  LarryFine
October 6, 2016 10:11 am

LarryFine: That’s a great site. Is this just a one-off for this particular hurricane, or does it track everything all the time?

October 6, 2016 6:25 am

Growing ionization atmosphere in the northern hemisphere.

October 6, 2016 6:28 am

I heard on the news this morning that the pressure had dropped to 940 millibars.

David A
October 6, 2016 7:45 am

I will be looking to see what wind speeds ground based instruments pick up, vs what is reported.

Non Nomen
October 7, 2016 12:17 am

@ Janice Moore
My posting “Non Nomen October 7, 2016 at 12:12 am ” wasn’t directed at you, my apologies.
You gave a fine reply, Steven M. did not.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Non Nomen
October 7, 2016 7:35 am

Thank you, Non Nomen. That was so kind of you to take the time to tell me. I see what happened. Anthony lets him post freely (unless he tosses out of his window as he drives by WUWT at 50 miles per hour a “Not!” or “Debunked!” or the like, lol), but wants to be certain to review his comments first, so…. his name is one of the “magic words” around here.
And, to you, too — weather is not climate and, aside from VERY short-term (and very small regional effects compared to the planet), we cannot cause meaningfully enduring change in the weather.
Only God can. 🙂

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 7, 2016 7:37 am

Oh, brother…. “and to you, too fine comment

Non Nomen
Reply to  Janice Moore
October 8, 2016 12:14 am

That phenomenon the Caribbean and the East coast have been and still are experincing is clearly a “weather”-matter. Whether people attribute it to climate doesn’t matter, it isn’t a climate thing. Some people have problems understanding that there are things on this tiny little ball that are not accessible to ratio but are a matter of higher powers. Mankind will rise to the occasion as it always did. Planning, preparation and adaptation are the keys, not modeling and subsequent panic. They fiddle around with models of which the physics are faulty and where an ideology is the driving power. It’s a deception, some sort of “Ersatz”-church. There is a fine sentence, printed on each dollar bill after 1956…
Janice, enjoy life!

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