NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season still expected to be strongest since 2012

Forecasters now expect 70-percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms

In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, NOAA calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012.

Forecasters now expect a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5 to 8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2 to 4 major hurricanes. The initial outlook called for 10-16 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Atlantic-storms-NOAA-2016“We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.”

“Given these competing conditions, La Niña, if it develops, will most likely be weak and have little impact on the hurricane season,” added Bell. NOAA announced today that La Niña is slightly favored to develop during the hurricane season.

To date, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). Four made landfall: Bonnie (in South Carolina), Colin (in western Florida), Danielle (in eastern Mexico), and Earl (in Belize and Mexico).

As we move into the peak of hurricane season, when hurricanes are most frequent and often at their strongest, NOAA urges coastal residents to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place and to monitor the latest forecasts. Learn how NOAA forecasts hurricanes.

On the Web:

Atlantic hurricane season outlook update

Atlantic hurricane season outlook (May 27)

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August 11, 2016 9:57 am

The Gods must be angry.

auto
Reply to  Scott Frasier
August 11, 2016 2:05 pm

Scott,
No.
NOAA is batting 1000 [is that the American expression? Comes from baseball I think . . .] for all their after-season reports.
So, obviously, a ‘Forecaster’s prediction’ [Forecast? Expectation?, Hope? Blind guess? Random thingy with gut feeling added?] must be correct.
Are there computer models in there anywhere?
Auto,
Confidently predicting that the average number of legs possessed by the winners of the 2018 Preakness and the 2018 Epsom Derby will be exactly 4.000000.

emsnews
Reply to  auto
August 11, 2016 6:50 pm

Right now, mid-August, there is nothing, nada not a sign of a tropical storm much less, any hurricanes.

RAH
Reply to  auto
August 12, 2016 4:35 am

I think a drunk, blindfolded, spider monkey could throw darts at a board and do better than NOAA with their seasonal hurricane outlooks some of the times. But really it’s a very tough thing to do.

Bryan A
Reply to  auto
August 12, 2016 12:13 pm

Auto,
I believe that the Jockey also gets credit for the win so the Leg count should be 6.000000
(not that I’m horsing around)

Latitude
August 11, 2016 10:05 am

What a rip….they will upgrade/change their forecast as the season goes on
Even bigger rip…if the wind is blowing, it’s a cyclone
Big scary word that fools a lot of people

Bryan A
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2016 10:18 am

Interestingly there were 2 Tropical Storms in the Pacific Monday, both with sustained winds of 55 knots. The storm at the base of Baja was labeled “Tropical Storm” while the storm just east of Japan was labeled “Severe Tropical Storm” yet both had virtually the same statistics.

Greg
Reply to  Bryan A
August 11, 2016 12:25 pm

This does not look like anything but a continuation of the slump which started around 2005.comment image
If my observation that this is similar to the slump in cyclone energy which happened during the last temperature “plateau” in the late 1930s and 40s , is not just coincidental, then I would not expect cyclone activity to pick up much before 2020 when the cooling part of the cycle starts to make itself evident.

Greg
Reply to  Bryan A
August 11, 2016 12:26 pm

Oops, I forgot the link tot the article over at Climate Etc.
https://judithcurry.com/2016/01/11/ace-in-the-hole/

RH
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2016 10:31 am

It looks like they wait for the Weatherbell Saturday Summary to say something about hurricanes before putting their forecast out.

Simon
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2016 12:08 pm

Latitude August 11, 2016 at 10:05 am
“What a rip….they will upgrade/change their forecast as the season goes on”
How dare they use the latest evidence to shape an accurate forecast to help those who may be in the path of these terrible storms. Shame on them. They should be held accountable to the first forecast they offer.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Simon
August 11, 2016 1:44 pm

Tell us how “those who may be in the path of these terrible storms” would be helped by a prediction change from ~ 10-16 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes, to ~ 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 8 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes . . or please drop the climate justice warrior guilt trip routine. It’s creepy to watch such puffery . .

Latitude
Reply to  Simon
August 11, 2016 1:48 pm

..or something like that LOL
They always start out with a high forecast…
…and then lower it as the season goes on
They have no evidence, they can’t forecast squat….
..and their crying wolf makes people ignore them

Simon
Reply to  Simon
August 11, 2016 3:22 pm

“Tell us how “those who may be in the path of these terrible storms” would be helped by a prediction change from ~ 10-16 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes, to ~ 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 8 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes . . or please drop the climate justice warrior guilt trip routine. It’s creepy to watch such puffery . .”
With a cynical comment like that I hope the first storm heads your way. You can take their advice or leave it…. personally I hope you leave it.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Simon
August 11, 2016 5:44 pm

“You can take their advice or leave it….”
I don’t place bets on the number of named storms in a given year or whatever, so I guess I’ll be leaving their advice . . Good luck to you though . .

Latitude
Reply to  Simon
August 11, 2016 6:07 pm

Simon thinks knowing how many cars are on the road…will tell him when he can cross

4 Eyes
Reply to  Simon
August 11, 2016 6:49 pm

Simon, JohnKnight’s comment is perfectly logical and rational; it is not cynical. The bottom line is people should be prepared every hurricane season because there have always been and there always will be hurricanes, global warming or not. Talking up numbers achieves nothing.

RAH
Reply to  Simon
August 12, 2016 4:43 am

“accurate”? If you had actually looked at NOAAs record on these long range hurricane forecasts and updates you could not honestly make such a statement. This year they’re right in the ball park with Weatherbell.com and others but during several previous years their forecast was way out in left field because they refused to by swayed by reality when they predicted an active season initially and did not adjust in their update when the season was obviously less active than they predicted.

John
Reply to  Simon
August 12, 2016 7:34 am

I’m a big skeptic on modeled climate, some could call me a denier. But as a boater who spends half their time away from close docks, updated forecasts are important in planning long runs. You will hit weather regardless, but if more hurricane activity is predicted, I may decrease my distance away from shore or run a little closer to marina’s with large Travellifts (big crane like devices to pull your heavy boat out of the water).

Greg Woods
August 11, 2016 10:07 am

We really need a forecast for the year 2100. That should be easy for our Climate Models…

joelobryan
Reply to  Greg Woods
August 11, 2016 4:30 pm

Greg,
Easy for me and my trusty Tardis I borrowed from the Dr. I set the Tardis controls for September 15, 2100, Geosynchronous orbit over at 080deg W latitude position. I took my trusty iPhone and snapped a pic for you. I just got back from 2100.
Here ya’ go:
September 15, 2100 – Geosynchronous.
http://i68.tinypic.com/2mr74wk.png
Disclaimer: the Tardis have been known to take me to alternate reality univereses that have nothing to do with our universe….sort of like the Climate Models the IPCC uses.

joelobryan
Reply to  joelobryan
August 11, 2016 4:31 pm

080 deg W longitude that is.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  joelobryan
August 11, 2016 6:51 pm

It looks like the inside of a climate model! Little wheels going round, going round, going nowhere!

August 11, 2016 10:15 am

So when they get this updated prediction wrong, who will ever call them out about how wrong there models are? Answer, NOBODY!!!!!

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Bobby Davis
August 11, 2016 10:19 am

It’s not a prediction, it is an outlook based on the current conditions that can affect development of tropical systems. These conditions change throughout the season so this is just an update on those changes.

DanNCFla
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 11, 2016 11:49 am

It might be more helpful if the outlooks were for shorter terms than for the entire six-month season. Perhaps if it were reported that, for the short term, few if any threatening storms are expected out of Africa because winds and cooler water there are not conducive to development and prologed life, but the sea surface temps of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are conducive to the rapid development of storms, which are likely to make landfall. But who knows what October and November will look like.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 11, 2016 12:08 pm

It is a prediction. There is no difference between a prediction and an outlook, they can never be wrong if the get to update it.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 12, 2016 9:35 am

I live in Florida also Tom and I’m not betting on these guys. Oh by the way, why do the call this Dept. this if they aren’t predictions?
Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Latitude
Reply to  Bobby Davis
August 11, 2016 10:33 am

So when they get this updated prediction wrong….LOL
They can’t be wrong…look at their outlook probability

Marcus
August 11, 2016 10:17 am

Nowadays, if ten cows in a field fart at the same time, they name it as a storm !!

John M. Ware
Reply to  Marcus
August 11, 2016 10:43 am

Actually, if ten or more cows fart at the same time, it’s a plot! Name your villain . . .

Pop Piasa
Reply to  John M. Ware
August 11, 2016 10:56 am

Mr. Mammalian Methane, that’s a bad dude. You need the GreenPiece GreenPunks to clean this one up!

rbabcock
Reply to  John M. Ware
August 11, 2016 1:13 pm

Cows are ladies, last I looked.

Bryan A
Reply to  John M. Ware
August 12, 2016 12:23 pm

If 5 cows fart simultaneously it’s a gas. Potty…Potty…Potty….Potty
If 10 cows fart simultaneously it’s a Methane thunder storm.
If 20 cows fart simultaneously it’s a Methnado
If 30 cows fart simultaneously it’s a Methicane
If 40 or more fart simultaneously it’s a “Super Methicane”

Bryan A
Reply to  John M. Ware
August 12, 2016 2:32 pm

rbabcock
don’t be too concerned about it, I’m certain Pop Piasa wasn’t trying to STEER you wrong

Resourceguy
Reply to  Marcus
August 11, 2016 10:47 am

Ten or more cows in a field will soon become a legal liability as AG staffs set to working counting and blaming with RICO cow impact laws. Less than 10 cows is okay as a small business exemption….for now.

Steve Fraser
Reply to  Resourceguy
August 11, 2016 12:55 pm

Udderly no shame, have you….
[Do not be cowed into accepting BS from those who you would hurt you. .mod]

lewispbuckingham
Reply to  Resourceguy
August 12, 2016 1:43 am

Insufferabull!

Bryan A
Reply to  Resourceguy
August 12, 2016 12:25 pm

Time to Cowtow

Reply to  Marcus
August 11, 2016 2:32 pm

No that’s a climate carastrophe.

Bryan A
Reply to  son of mulder
August 12, 2016 12:26 pm

very Cowtastrophic

Tom in Florida
August 11, 2016 10:17 am

Perhaps it would be better to give us a specific number of these events with a plus or minus number around that.

Latitude
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 11, 2016 10:50 am

Tom, I just wish they would get a better storm track…
Every round thing that comes off Africa….they aim right at us
..then as it gets closer…they have the “cone of death” from Rio to Maine

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2016 12:11 pm

I get that. But they have to fill up air time with something. In any event, most of us that need to be watchful know what and when to be looking at these things that may come into play. Until then, let them have their day in the sun ….. clouds …… wind…… whatever.

RAH
Reply to  Latitude
August 12, 2016 12:36 pm

Their “cone of death” is a constantly changing track and quite often the final one is 100s or even 1000s of miles off from where the first one showed the storm going. In August of 2011 they forecast the Irene hitting every single eastern seaboard state at one time or another. They started with it coming ashore right at the tip of the Florida pan handle and then went right up the coast with their “cone of death” .
http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/irene-3.gif

ShrNfr
August 11, 2016 10:18 am

The Atlantic Ace appears to be coming in this year at an all time low since 1970: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp The global ACE may be a tad higher than 2013, but it is still very, very, low https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp?basin=gl
Of course, we all know that “global warming” causes “more intense storms”. Another total fail for the climate models.

Reply to  ShrNfr
August 11, 2016 11:34 am

Just remember: intense hurricanes/cyclones are caused by climate. Intense blizzards are just weather.

Reply to  billpatt
August 11, 2016 12:11 pm

They claim that intense blizzards are global warming as well.

Owen in GA
Reply to  ShrNfr
August 11, 2016 6:48 pm

Yes, but as hurricanes are heat engines, it is the heat flow from tropical water to polar space that drives ACE. I always thought the doomsayers had that one backward, but how would Chicken Little scare the barnyard with a prediction that the sky would fall less hard today than it did yesterday, when we all lived through the fall of yesterday.

Mark from the Midwest
August 11, 2016 10:20 am

NOAA’s month to month forecasts for temperature and precipitation for the upper Midwest have been pretty bad the last two years, so why should I believe them?

u.k(us)
August 11, 2016 10:24 am

Glad that is settled 🙂
Back in the day, you just took what She threw at ya.
You knew the odds, you made your bet, and nobody cried about the outcome.

TA
August 11, 2016 10:27 am

At the beginning of the summer, NOAA forecast that the West Coast of the U.S. would be hotter than the center of the U.S. this summer. See the link below for a forecast map.
The actual weather in the U.S. has been hotter in the central U.S. than on the West Coast (the normal state of affairs), and summer is almost over, so I guess NOAA missed this forecast. Maybe they will be more accurate with their hurricane forecast.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/noaa-2016-summer-outlook-where-are-highest-chances-hot-summer-us

AZ1971
Reply to  TA
August 11, 2016 11:52 am

Not only that, but the forecasts 3 months ago with the expectations for La Niña were far stronger and colder than now. They did the same thing with the expectations for Arctic sea ice extent as well. In fact, I recall that the forecast for August was to be above the long-term normal.
Forecasting is a crap shoot business, and NOAA is mediocre at best. If they had the best product, private companies like Joe Bastardi’s wouldn’t exist.

n.n
August 11, 2016 10:28 am

Near-normal. Above-normal. Historically, it’s all normal.

John M. Ware
Reply to  n.n
August 11, 2016 10:47 am

No–none of it is “normal” because there are no norms. There are averages, and almost every day is above or below average in some respect. Here in Virginia we average a bit over a tenth of an inch per day. We can’t call that normal, and then say that a half-inch of rain is abnormal (i.e., above normal).

Owen in GA
Reply to  John M. Ware
August 11, 2016 6:50 pm

normal: perpendicular to the plain. I have often been accused of sticking out from the crowd…

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  John M. Ware
August 11, 2016 8:29 pm

And THIS is slightly above normal:comment image?w=652

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  John M. Ware
August 11, 2016 8:57 pm

And this is crossroads:
https://youtu.be/becWr0vc6cA

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  n.n
August 11, 2016 8:21 pm

THIS is normal:
https://www.google.at/search?q=us+town+normal&oq=us+town+normal&aqs=chrome..69i57.16466j0j4&client=ms-android-samsung&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

Resourceguy
August 11, 2016 10:32 am

Let the monkey do it this year.

Mike Restin
Reply to  Resourceguy
August 11, 2016 11:52 am

When did they replace the monkey?

emsnews
Reply to  Mike Restin
August 11, 2016 6:55 pm

You need a billion monkeys pounding away at a billion computers while screaming for bananas to get the answer to our questions.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Mike Restin
August 11, 2016 6:57 pm

Didn’t you notice the drop-off in accuracy?

Bryan A
Reply to  Mike Restin
August 12, 2016 12:30 pm

I believe the answer was “42”

Matt Bergin
August 11, 2016 10:51 am

I just checked and of course today on the day of the announcement there is ZERO storm activity in either the Atlantic or Pacific ocean nor is any storm expected develop in the next 48 hours. To me this looks like the quietest season so far. The rest of the season will have to be pretty intense to live up to their expectations.

François
Reply to  Matt Bergin
August 11, 2016 12:05 pm

There is that little thing in the Pacific Ocean : 24° N, 154° E, no name, but who knows?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Matt Bergin
August 11, 2016 12:15 pm

Hurricane season peaks in mid September so it is still early considering that. Always keep in mind, no matter what number they settle on, it only takes one to get you.

mike
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 11, 2016 2:58 pm

Basically we’ll have weathered the worst by the end of October.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 11, 2016 3:46 pm

well since it’s expected to be the worst season since 2012 that would make it HISTORIC. So said the guy in the Napoleon hat

Evan Jones
Editor
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 12, 2016 4:14 am

Then there was the guy in the Napoleon hat in 1812 with the worst season ever.

peter
August 11, 2016 11:00 am

If the world were to start cooling, my understanding of how Hurricanes work would seem to indicate that we would see an increase in them due to the temperature differential between tropical and arctic regions. This increase in Hurricanes would of course be blamed on Climate Change, and they’d actually be right, but they for sure are not going to mention that it’s because the climate is cooling.

Marcus
August 11, 2016 11:03 am

..Off Topic but….Wow, I didn’t think the U.N. could screw up Haiti any worse than they already had..boy, was I wrong !
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/08/11/amid-haiti-cholera-epidemic-un-peacekeepers-spill-sewage-and-ignore-water-treatment-says-internal-report.html
Absolutely unacceptable…

August 11, 2016 11:15 am

So I wasn’t particularly following CAGW in 2005 (aka Katrina). Did the CAGWers wet themselves over that season? Was that year the new norm? Any links?

Reply to  taz1999
August 11, 2016 12:17 pm

Yes, Al Gore told us that this would be the new norm. However, that was also the last year that a ‘Major Hurricane’ has made landfall in the USA (Wilma made landfall in Florida Oct 24 of that year as a Cat 3 storm). This happens to be the longest period recorded with no major hurricane making landfall in the USA (now over well over 10 years, almost 11 years).

Bruce Cobb
August 11, 2016 11:20 am

Now into the 11th year of a hurricane drought (last major one to hit US mainland was Wilma, in Oct. 2005).
They just don’t make hurricanes like they used to.

jvcstone
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
August 11, 2016 3:17 pm

would really like to see a little more tropical activity in the gulf–getting pretty dry around this part of Texas.

August 11, 2016 11:23 am

Wow.
This is not a forecast. It’s a “now cast.”
And it’s not hard to say hurricane count will be higher than years since 2012 when two of those years had near record low hurricane activity – namely the last two years.
And still I think they are gonna wrong. Typically there are 2-3 tropical disturbances marching their way across from Africa on any give day in August. Right now there are NONE, and NONE expected in the next 48 hours.
see: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Summary – this is the worst case of political spin doctoring I’ve seen relative to the failed “CAGW will cause more hurricanes” meme.

Resourceguy
Reply to  wallensworth
August 11, 2016 11:53 am

Welcome to the new normal–now.

Reply to  wallensworth
August 11, 2016 11:55 am

Of course they’ll be right…They do the counting.

Cam
August 11, 2016 11:26 am

They really shouldn’t call it a “season” if they include outlier storms such as Alex that form in January/February. It should just be 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast.

Pop Piasa
August 11, 2016 11:36 am

Here is Weatherbell’s forecast
(I hope Mr. Bastardi won’t mind)
http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/2016_Hurricane_Forecast_Graphic(2).jpg
Please note that it was made in May.
IIUC, Joe has said that the presently warm waters off the gulf coast and eastern seaboard are primed to ramp up smaller storms as they approach landfall.

Joe Bastardi
Reply to  Pop Piasa
August 11, 2016 7:19 pm

that was the late March forecast. We updated in May so if you can put that on. We expanded threat up the east coast. Please have people read it, We are thinking the problem is late developing ( outside of MDR) storms that can deepen rapidly close to land. But this was the late March forecast, the May one was on the site under it to show folks what we changed. The KAPLAN AMO was 4th highest on record, behind major ace years lf 1998,2005,2010. We are not thinking the ace is nearly that high. Please I ask all people to read the ideas we have. The link to the latest is here http://www.weatherbell.com/final-2016-hurricane-forecast The first map that is posted here is there to compare to the change which is below. thanks

Caligula Jones
August 11, 2016 11:52 am

Anywhere I can find a list of:
1) what they have predicted in previous years (or projected, whatever term is acceptable this week) – and I mean their final FINAL list
2) what actually occurred

Reply to  Caligula Jones
August 11, 2016 12:22 pm

WUWT used to post a comparison of each ‘Outlook’ update and compare it to actual. I haven’t seen that type of post for several years though. It became a boring repeat every year. The ‘Outlook’ became more dire as the year progressed, until the hurricane season was almost over, then finally it would fall in line with reality.

Cam
Reply to  Caligula Jones
August 11, 2016 12:52 pm

Wikipedia – enter search Atlantic Hurricane Season. This gives each hurricane year and also what the various predictions were and storm summary for each storm

Caligula Jones
Reply to  Cam
August 12, 2016 7:10 am

Thanks Cam. I do the same thing with my hockey pool: see how close the experts were last year. My second team is totally random, and sometimes beats the experts.

Reply to  Caligula Jones
August 12, 2016 4:23 pm

” 2) what actually occurred ” changes. and
” 1) what they have predicted in previous years ” changes.
It will be just as they predicted. I’m thinking it will always be worse than what they thought. Whether it is or not, doesn’t much matter. NOAA/NASA has lost credit-ability.

Mike Maguire
August 11, 2016 12:08 pm

This looks like a good product and outlook. It does, however seem to be framed in a way to appear worse…”Strongest since 2012″.
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season was a slightly below average season.
The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a below average season in terms of named storms, and an average season in terms of both hurricanes and major hurricanes.
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season and the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes.
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, tied with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for having the third-most named storms on record.
Here is the ACE index so far this year. The E/C Pacific has been the active area:
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

August 11, 2016 12:26 pm

From Weather Bell
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png
I think this graph fully debunks the ‘increased hurricanes/cyclones’ non-sense.

Marcos
August 11, 2016 12:59 pm

NOAA used to use a 3-4 storm window for their predictions. They now use a 6-7 storm window. Sure does make it hard to be wrong when you get to make the ‘being right’ parameters as big as you want…

James at 48
August 11, 2016 1:04 pm

We”re getting into prime time. We’ll need to see quite a few storms over the next 6 weeks to have an active season.

August 11, 2016 1:16 pm

james – yes indeed.
St. Thomas USVI has a 1% chance of a Hurricane coming within 50nm each week in August.
That goes to 2% chance in September.
I found a nice greater Caribbean source on Hurricane odds… link below.
https://www.caribeez.com/weather/article/caribbean-hurricane-season

Pop Piasa
Reply to  wallensworth
August 11, 2016 1:23 pm

That link took me to the 2015 hurricane forcast.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Pop Piasa
August 11, 2016 1:33 pm

The internet is like my refrigerator: check the expiry date before consuming.

Reply to  Pop Piasa
August 11, 2016 2:28 pm

This link was posted because of the historical statistics contained in the article, not because it was a forecast for this year.

TonyL
Reply to  wallensworth
August 11, 2016 2:57 pm

Nice site. Good overview and chances of getting clobbered on any given island. Up to date forecasts, and interesting tourist info.
If you are going down there, this is one to bookmark and keep handy.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  TonyL
August 11, 2016 7:07 pm

For local weather forecasts I expect them to be about 90% correct about the next day’s weather and exactly wrong four days or more out. I would expect something similar for seasonal predictions.

August 11, 2016 1:33 pm

We lived in Florida for four years, every year they predicted we would have a bad hurricane season, every year we were sparred. But living in France we have had one hurricane, although officially called a storm, but with sustained winds of about 90mph, back in January 2009. We lost 8 trees and had no electricity for a week!

sciguy54
Reply to  ourfrenchoasis
August 11, 2016 7:25 pm

Ourfrench
One night in very late November of 2008 I was on a ship transiting the Gulf of Lion from Barcelona to Nice and we were buffeted for 3-4 hours by 70+ knot winds from the north, which I believe the French would call a tramontane. As we neared Nice the Alps were brilliantly white and appeared to crowd the beach in the cold clear sunrise. Quite a contrast from the previous balmy afternoon in Spain. The winter of 2008-2009 must have been a cold one in France.

noaaprogrammer
August 11, 2016 1:44 pm

In addition to just looking at the strengths and number of hurricanes, it seems to me that their durations over their speed ranges should also be a part of a statistical data base. Does anyone know whether or not that is available, and what year it started?

Latitude
Reply to  noaaprogrammer
August 11, 2016 2:29 pm

I don’t….but good point
With the “now” technology…and more planes available because of fewer storms
…they are clocking 30 min durations…and classifying and naming them
I forget which year it was…..2-3 years ago….they named four storms that were immediately downgraded as soon as they named them….but they got a name, so they counted

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2016 3:05 pm

I think it is OK to name a storm as soon as there is a closed circulation with sustained winds at 39 mph because it is easier to refer to a particular storm by name, especially if there are more than one happening at a time. For instance, if TS A poses no threat to my area and TS B is going on at the same time and is a possible threat to my area I would pay attention to TS Beta news and ignore TS Alpha. And if TS C is farther out and may need my attention in a several days or so, I can hold off on concern about that for now. Again, just an easier way to tell them apart when listening to forecasts and updates.

Latitude
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2016 3:20 pm

I sorta agree with that…but mostly don’t
When they find 39 in one quadrant for 10 mins…it gets a name
..and even if it’s a nada for the entire rest of the time…it keeps that name
That and “cyclone” gives the impression there’s more going on than there is
“three named storms in the Atlantic”…..and they are all three disorganized blobs with no hope of recovery

Barbara Skolaut
August 11, 2016 2:55 pm

Meh. Either we’ll have bad storms or we won’t, just like every other year from time immemorial.
Mother Nature will do what she wants to do; I just hope she does it to someone else besides me.

August 11, 2016 2:59 pm

“Forecasters now expect a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5 to 8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2 to 4 major hurricanes.”
Is this the approximate equivalent of 90% chance of 12 to 17 named storms and 90% chance of 5 to 8 hurricanes and 90% chance of 2 to 4 major hurricanes?
90% seems quite high to me for each of these. (90/100)^3=73/100

Tom in Florida
Reply to  son of mulder
August 11, 2016 3:08 pm

The problem with that kind of description is you could have 12 named storms with 8 becoming hurricanes, 2 making it to major status. Or you could have 17 named storms, 5 becoming hurricanes with 4 making it to major status. Or any combination of those numbers. I still prefer they pick a single number and +/- from there.

Ross King
August 11, 2016 3:21 pm

Stastically speaking,every climatological measure (given a statistically significant time) can be analysed on a bell-curve, with mean & Standard Deviation (SD).
What this is all about is the incremental shift of each set of data as the years advance.
Each significant shift (2xSD?) is a ‘flag’ for further research (not a Call to Arms!) otherwise it is of little statistical significance, being part of normative variance..

August 11, 2016 4:46 pm

Yogi Berra is credited as saying ” It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” NOAA was kind enough to justify there prediction (really a swag) based on “El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” and goes on to say “However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.”
I know NOAA is a favorite whipping boy for many; I might add, with good reason. Can someone please tell me whether the criticism of this forecast is based on conditions NOAA cites to justify their prediction (El Niño, etc.) or is the criticism based on past egregious behavior by NOAA? What basis for predicting 2016 hurricanes would be better than the ones NOAA selected?

emsnews
August 11, 2016 6:49 pm

It is now mid-August and ZERO hurricane/tropical storm anything on the Atlantic side of the globe. Nothing!!!

Joe Bastardi
August 11, 2016 7:26 pm

Lets remember that the worst season for the east coast, 1954 had an ace of 112 and the C storm Carol, hit on Aug 31. Our worry is not total ace in the middle of nowhere but the in close activity. The developing major cool regime in the central US means higher pressure there which enhances the storm threats in the western atlantic and gulf as it forced enhanced convergence in these areas. I appreciate people wish to look to Africa but when you look at years like 1954, you can see the big 3 did not gain storm intensity till well west, away from Africa comment image The danger in spiking the ball on the non season is that it takes a couple of slow moving storms over the well above normal waters, lets say a couple of Joaquin type rapid feedbacks and suddenly you are in very different territory. The definition of an active season is subjective. If it hits you , its an active season. And you can imagine given the nonsense of AGW hysteria, that a 1954 season occurring now would rely on the fact people dont know about it, to push the AGW issue. My only caution is to understand this kind of SST in close to the US can turn this season in a period of a few weeks to one that is grabbing headlines. Peace

Joe Bastardi
Reply to  Joe Bastardi
August 11, 2016 7:27 pm
climatologist
Reply to  Joe Bastardi
August 12, 2016 7:40 am

And it still remains a gamble

Latitude
Reply to  Joe Bastardi
August 11, 2016 7:33 pm

Thank you!

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Joe Bastardi
August 12, 2016 4:33 am

Yes, think back to Andrew. Almost falling apart on Aug 20 it quickly turned into a Cat 5 only 3 days later as it came into the very warm waters of the Bahamas. This is an excellent example of why you watch EVERYTHING as it approaches your area.

tadchem
August 11, 2016 10:14 pm

Expressed in terms of confidence limits, these numbers are 14.5 +/- 17%, 6.5 +/- 23%, and 3.0 +/- 33%.
This has all the precision of a sawed-off shotgun in the hands of a blind man.

SAMURAI
August 11, 2016 10:47 pm

Well of course NOAA is going to say this year’s hurricane season is going to be “worse than we thought”….
When they’re wrong, it’s forgotten, and they still get the “worse than we thought” headline at the start of the season, and if NOAA is wrong, there is ZERO accountability, and almost no MSM journalist will point out NOAA’s absolutely LOUSY record of accurately predicting ANY weather event over 10 days in the future..
Not a bad job if you can get it…

Lonanlad
August 12, 2016 7:14 am

Here in the UK the Daily Mail are reporting that “Hurricane Sandy” was the deadliest hurricane to hit the US since Katrina, correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t Sandy only classified as a super tropical storm when she hit the north east coast not a hurricane.

Reply to  Lonanlad
August 12, 2016 8:06 am

Correct…
“Superstorm Sandy” :-0, so-named because it was not even a hurricane at landfall they had to name it something that sounded even scarier.
The only reason it’s remembered at all is that it hit a populated area and caused a lot of damage.
If it had hit the Florida everglades where nobody lives, nobody would even remember it.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Lonanlad
August 12, 2016 9:50 am

Sandy was a hurricane when it was in the Caribbean. As it moved north it changed into a post tropical storm. Still, it was a monster with lots energy as it hit New Jersey.

Jenn Runion
August 12, 2016 9:56 am

Well I’ve had enough of the “dire” weather talks/predictions haven’t you?
In the last month, our forcasters have called for 3 “major/severe/get inside now!” Storms that amounted to some spectacularly unremarkable drizzle of rain.
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect is so overused that even here in WI, where.weather is watched closer than anyother place I’ve lived, the people are becoming jaded. Which is saying something. Now big stuff in the winter…yea they tend to get it right, but that is Winter and it doesn’t feed the CAGW machine like warmer temps and thunderstorms does.
So you tell me, how can the same equipment that can forecast a blizzard and pretty accurately I might add, get it so wrong on a typical thunderstorm? The answer? Global warming of course! The public is more apt to believe in global warming when they aren’t shovelling 12″of snow at 30 below zero F.

August 12, 2016 9:59 am

I live in Houma, LA. My house is about 5 houses away from the marsh that runs on for 20 miles to the Gulf. Hurricanes are important to me and mine. We are somewhat amazed at how wrong Al Gore was with that “STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT” prognostication. Of course he was wrong on so many other levels as well. The fear of increased storm activity reduced land values and forced local government and State Government to ad debt and taxes to pay for it to help “SAVE” us from the future of increased storms. We live in a “STATE OF FEAR”… oh!, BTW read the book by Crichton…very apropos.

Brian H
August 13, 2016 2:03 am

It;s reel hard to turn off or rationally rationalize those plugged parameters!

Brian H
Reply to  Brian H
August 13, 2016 2:03 am

It’s …

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