'Correcting' Trenberth et al.

(See the note below before taking this post seriously – Anthony)

Guest essay by Steven Wilde

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Here we see the classic energy budget analysis supporting the hypothesis that the surface of the Earth is warmer than the S-B equation would predict due to 324 Wm2 of ‘Back Radiation’ from the atmosphere to the surface.

It is proposed that it is Back Radiation that lifts the surface temperature from 255K, as predicted by S-B, to the 288K actually observed because the 324 Back Radiation exceeds the surface radiation to the air of 222 Wm2 ( 390 Wm2 less 168 Wm2) by 102 Wm2. It is suggested that there is a net radiative flow from atmosphere to surface of 102 Wm2.

I now discuss an alternative possibility.

The portions I wish to focus on are:

i) 390 Wm2 Surface Radiation to atmosphere

ii) 78 Wm2 Evapo-transpiration surface to atmosphere

iii) 24 Thermals surface to atmosphere

iv) 324 Back Radiation atmosphere to surface

The budget needs to be amended as follows:

The 78 Wm2 needs to be corrected to zero because the moist adiabatic lapse rate during ascent is less than the dry lapse rate on adiabatic descent which ensures that after the first convective cycle there is as much energy back at the surface as before Evapo-transpiration began.

The 24 Wm2 for thermals needs to be corrected to zero because dry air that rises in thermals then warms back up to the original temperature on descent.

Therefore neither ii) nor iii) should be included in the radiative budget at all. They involve purely non radiative means of energy transfer and have no place in the radiative budget since, being net zero, they do not cool the surface. AGW theory and the Trenberth diagram incorrectly include them as a net surface cooling influence.

Furthermore, they cannot reduce Earth’s surface temperature below 255K because both conduction and convection are slower methods of energy transmission than radiation. To reduce the surface temperature below 255K they would have to work faster than radiation which is obviously not so.

They can only raise a surface temperature above the S-B expectation and for Earth that is 33K.

Once the first convective overturning cycle has been completed neither Thermals nor Evapo-transpiration can have any additional warming effect at the surface provided mass, gravity and insolation remain constant.

As regards iv) the correct figure for the radiative flux from atmosphere to surface should be 222 Wm2 because items ii) and iii) should not have been included.

That also leaves the surface to atmosphere radiative flux at 222 Wm2 which taken with the 168 Wm2 absorbed directly by the surface comes to the 390 Wm2 required for radiation from the surface.

The rest of the energy budget diagram appears to be correct.

So, how to decide whether my interpretation is accurate?

I think it is generally accepted that the lapse rate slope marks the points in the atmosphere where there is energy balance within molecules that are at the correct height for their temperature.

Since the lapse rate slope intersects with the surface it follows that DWIR equals UWIR for a zero net radiative balance if a molecule at the surface is at the correct temperature for its height. If it is not at the correct surface temperature it will simply move towards the correct height by virtue of density variations in the horizontal plane (convection).

Thus, 222 UWIR at the surface should equal 222 DWIR at the surface AND 222 plus 168 should add up to 390 and, of course, it does.

AGW theory erroneously assumes that Thermals and Evapo-transpiration have a net cooling effect on the surface and so they have to uplift the radiative exchange at the surface from 222 Wm2 to 324 Wm2 and additionally they assume that the extra 102 Wm2 is attributable to a net radiative flux towards the surface from the atmosphere.

The truth is that there is no net flow of radiation in any direction at the surface once the air at the surface is at its correct temperature for its height, which is 288K and not 255K. The lapse rate intersecting at the surface tells us that there can be no net radiative flux at the surface when surface temperature is at 288K.

A rise in surface temperature above the S-B prediction is inevitable for an atmosphere capable of conducting and convection because those two processes introduce a delay in the transmission of radiative energy through the system. Conduction and convection are a function of mass held within a gravity field.

Energy being used to hold up the weight of an atmosphere via conduction and convection is no longer available for radiation to space since energy cannot be in two places at once.

The greenhouse effect is therefore a product of atmospheric mass rather than radiative characteristics of constituent molecules as is clearly seen when the Trenberth diagram is corrected and the lapse rate considered.

Since one can never have more than 390 Wm2 at the surface without increasing conduction and convection via changes in mass, gravity or insolation a change in the quantity of GHGs cannot make any difference. All they can do is redistribute energy within the atmosphere.

There is a climate effect from the air circulation changes but, due to the tiny proportion of Earth’s atmospheric mass comprised of GHGs, too small to measure compared to natural variability.

What Happens When Radiative Gases Increase Or Decrease?

Applying the above correction to the Trenberth figures we can now see that 222 Wm2 radiation from the surface to the atmosphere is simply balanced by 222 Wm2 radiation from the atmosphere to the surface. That is the energy being constantly expended by the surface via conduction and convection to keep the weight of the atmosphere off the surface. We must ignore it for the purpose of energy transmission to space since the same energy cannot be in two places at once.

We then have 168 Wm2 left over at the surface which represents energy absorbed by the surface after 30 Wm2 has been reflected from the surface , 77 Wm2 has been reflected by the atmosphere and 67 Wm2 has been absorbed by the atmosphere before it reaches the surface.

That 168 Wm2 is then transferred to the atmosphere by conduction and convection leaving a total of 235 Wm2 in the atmosphere (168 plus 67).

It is that 235 Wm2 that must escape to space if radiative balance is to be maintained.

Now, remember that the lapse rate slope represents the positions in the atmosphere where molecules are at their correct temperature for their height.

At any given moment convection arranges that half the mass of the atmosphere is too warm for its height and half the mass is too cold for its height.

The reason for that is that the convective process runs out of energy to lift the atmosphere any higher against gravity when the two halves equalise.

It must follow that at any given time half of the GHGs must be too warm for their height and the other half too cold for their height.

That results in density differentials that cause the warm molecules to rise and the cold molecules to fall.

If a GHG molecule is too warm for its height then DWIR back to the surface dominates but the molecule rises away from the surface and cools until DWIR again equals UWIR.

If a GHG molecule is too cold for its height then UWIR to space dominates but the molecule then falls until DWIR again equals UWIR.

The net effect is that any potential for GHGs to warm or cool the surface is negated by the height changes relative to the slope of the adiabatic lapse rate.

Let’s now look at how that outgoing 235 Wm2 is dealt with if radiative gas concentrations change.

It is recognised that radiative gases tend to reduce the size of the Atmospheric Window (40 Wm2) so we will assume a reduction from 40 Wm2 to 35 Wm2 by way of example.

If that happens then DWIR for molecules that are too warm for their height will increase but the subsequent rise in height will cause the molecule to rise above its correct position along the lapse rate slope with UWIR to space increasing at the expense of DWIR back to the surface and rising will only stop when DWIR again equals UWIR.

Since UWIR to space increases to compensate for the shrinking of the atmospheric window (from 40 Wm2 to 35 Wm2) the figure for radiative emission from the atmosphere will increase from 165 to 170 which keeps the system in balance with 235 Wm2 still outgoing.

If the atmosphere had no radiative capability at all then radiative emission from the atmosphere would be zero but the Atmospheric Window would release 235 Wm2 from the surface.

If the atmosphere were 100% radiative then the Atmospheric Window from the surface would be zero and the atmosphere would radiate the entire 235 Wm2.

==============================================================

Note: I’m glad to see a number of people pointing out how flawed the argument is. Every once in awhile we need to take a look at the ‘Slayer’ mentality of thinking about radiative balance, just to keep sharp on the topic. At first I thought this should go straight into the hopper, and then I thought it might make some good target practice, so I published it without any caveat.

Readers did not disappoint.

Now you can watch the fun as they react over at PSI.  – Anthony

P.S. Readers might also enjoy my experiment on debunking the PSI light bulb experiment, and note the reactions in comments, entirely opposite to this one. New WUWT-TV segment: Slaying the ‘slayers’ with Watts

Update: Let me add that the author assuredly should have included a link to the underlying document, Earth’s Global Energy Budget by Kiehl and Trenberth …

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April 8, 2014 11:51 am

I note the term “back radiation” can also be confusing
It is used both for radiation back to space (mostly by the ozone, peroxides and the nitrogenous oxides) and radiation back to earth (Water, CO2 and ozone and others)
I am not sure how this can be differentiated

george e. smith
April 8, 2014 11:51 am

I read the first few sentences/paragraphs, and decided, I couldn’t follow the detail narrative, closely enough to track the argument. But some comments come to mind.
evidently, some folks think that “latent heat” is some source of energy that is available to “heat” (aka ‘raise the temperature of’) the atmosphere.
NO !! Latent heat is energy that must BE LOST BY a vapor, TO A COLDER SINK, BEFORE it can change phase to a liquid or solid. It raises the temperature of nothing, so any moisture/solid precipitating out, does not bring a host of heat energy back to earth with it.
Secondly Trenberth’s ENERGY BUDGET, which has been mischaracterized (including by me mistakenly) as a RADIATION budget, is in fact NOT an energy budget at all.
It is a POWER budget, or more strictly a POWER DENSITY (area) budget.
POWER; P = dE / dt is an instantaneous differential quantity, it is a RATE of energy flow / change / conversion /usage/ arrival / whatever.
An ENERGY budget for a climate consideration, would be given in Petajoules or some larger unit involved in perhaps some 30 year climate relative time frame; an INTEGRAL OF THE POWER BUDGET.
Why this is important, is because the real universe does not average anything, it responds instantly to any and all happenstances, as they happen, without any delays to compute some average.
As a result, the actual rate of radiant energy loss from the earth, is substantially greater than Trenberth’s numbers, because the major energy losses, occur from the earths HIGHEST TEMPERATURE zones, and NOT from the earth’s COLDEST TEMPERATURE zones.
Ice and snow at the poles INHIBIT the cooling of the earth; they DO NOT ENHANCE the earth’s cooling rate.
Urban heat islands are wonderful for radiating large quantities of energy back into space during the heat of the day.
In any case, I don’t see where Stephen is going with this.
Trenberth, is a bit confused, in that he includes in his ersatz “energy” budget, completely internal to the earth system fluxes of “heat energy” that cannot cross the earth / space boundary line. Yet he then goes on to completely ignore, totally astronomical amounts of other earth internal “heat energy” fluxes that are going on in the earth’s oceans and ocean currents, from tropics to poles. And once transported to the poles, these energies become trapped, by the abysmally low thermal radiative power available at polar temperatures.
Kevin, if you want to know why you can’t account for the “missing heat”, maybe it’s because you totally ignore the ocean “heat energy” fluxes, in your “earth energy budget.”
Nature does not average power.
TSI is 1362 or 1366 W/m^2 all over the sunlit half of the earth’s intercept circle, and it has that value for each and every atto-second of time, give or take some noise, and solar goings on, that Leif can educate us on; plus of course some well understood orbital ellipticity change during a year.
I defy anyone in a normally inhabited zone to go out on a clear sunny day, near noon, and point a radiometer towards the sun, and get within 10%, maybe even 25 % of 342 W/m^2 or maybe it’s 250 W/m^2 Trenberth thinks you will read. You won’t; you’ll get a number closer to 1,000 W/m^2.
Which is why earth is hotter than Trenberth thinks it should be.

Ian
April 8, 2014 11:52 am

Willis Eschenbach says:
April 8, 2014 at 11:18 am
“Their basis is described in the underlying document, Earth’s Global Energy Budget. People commenting without having read that are just guessing …”
Willis,
I tried your link but it seems to have been disconnected.
I think I found the paper here http://www.geo.utexas.edu/courses/387h/PAPERS/kiehl.pdf
Is that correct?
[Try here … w.]

Slartibartfast
April 8, 2014 11:53 am

Trenberth’s papers are no longer as linked.
Try, instead, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/trenbert/trenberth.papers/KiehlTrenbBAMS97.pdf

Alan McIntire
April 8, 2014 11:53 am

The “Skydragons” have a point that Trenberth’s figures are oversimplified, not showing a day/night difference. To take care of that, check “Newton Cooling” out at wiki,
and take into consideration that the earth is NOT asymptotically cooling to 0 K at night, but to the higher temperatue of the atmosphere.
I did a rough calculation of daily cooling of the atmosphere.
mass atmosphere = 5* 10^18 kg=5*10^21gm
temp atmosphere 255K (effective radiating temp to space- underestimates heat content)
specific heat 1.01 joules/gm C
5* 10^21*1.01*255= 1.288 * 10^24 joules
radius earth = 6400km= 6.4*10^6 meters.
area earth = 4 pi r^2 =514,718,540,364,021.76
240 watts/sq meter = 240 joules/sec per square meter
60 sec/min*60 min/hr*24hr/day=86,400 secs per day
5.147* 10^14 sq meters*240 joules/sec/sq meter *8.64*10^4 secs/day= 1.067*10^22 joules per day radiated away
1.067*10^22/1.288*10^24 = 0.83%
So the atmosphere as a whole cools by less than 1% over the course of a day. That figure makes sense when you figure that the earth’s surface temperature my change by 10 C or more overnight far more than average changes over a week, but weather patterns persist for several days, and that’s why meteorologists can predict daily highs out a week or so. That cooling is obviously mostly from the
earth’s surface and air near the surface ,leaving most of the atmosphere unchanged.

April 8, 2014 11:55 am

Anthony,
Thanks for coming “clean” on this article. I am a layman at best, still trying to learn from my betters here.
On my first read, thought I had one of those new “smell-phones”, either that or my dog farted. His logic process and lack of references were big clues…

MikeB
April 8, 2014 12:05 pm

The problem when you introduce nonsense like this is that other weirdoes chip in with their own brand of competing nonsense. AlecM for instance with his own nonsensical brand of physics that only he pretends to understand.
Willis Eschenbach April 8, 2014 at 11:18 am
I can’t follow your link. I get object not found. Is this problem at my end or is the link incorrect? Would like to see it, thanks.

April 8, 2014 12:09 pm

since the IR wave leaves the earth headed towards the colder body(space) i have yet to see anyone explain how co2 could possibly REVERSE that flow of the wave? no force is required to push it away from the earth that is its natural movement and some force would be required to reverse that movement and send it back to earth, co2 has no such power…….sorta like insulation on a house, it does slow heat loss but it does NOT REVERSE the flow and send heat back into the house.

Duster
April 8, 2014 12:09 pm

dbstealey says:
April 8, 2014 at 10:30 am
Duster says:
… the inward or down-welling LIR is never 50% of the reradiated IR…
That has been my understanding for a long time now. Greenhouse gases radiate in all directions, therefore a CO2 molecule at, for example, a 20 km altitude would re-radiate an IR photon that it absorbed from the surface in all directions, therefore far less than 50% of the re-radiated photons would return to heat the earth. Most would proceed into outer space. It is only at the surface that a photon has a 50% chance of warming the planet. The rest of the photons radiate into space, cooling the planet.
That is just one of several arguments falsifying the greenhouse gas conjecture.

I don’t think it falsifies the greenhouse conjecture. The interaction between GHGs and LIR is a laboratory fact. I do think that there are a great many folks who are thinking about the same problem in such profoundly different terms that they don’t understand each other and, instead a “come again” and a “please explain your first-principles assumptions more clearly,” there is a great deal of “no, no, you’re wrong.” A lot of the argument hinges upon the semantics of the words “greenhouse effect,” which has been admitted to be a misnomer for years.
Off hand I would far rather hear a “slayer’s” opinion than that of a believer in CAGW, if only because the CAGW believer has divorced him- or herself from empirical reality and demonstrable geological history in favour of computer games (-ah computer models, models, I meant models) and scary numbers. The CAGW faithful are in their own minds heroically defending the planet from the rest of us – drama, not science.

April 8, 2014 12:25 pm
AlecM
April 8, 2014 12:26 pm

MikeB: prove to the other readers using standard physics that anything i have written here is wrong. You won’t be able to. I measured coupled convection and radiation in plants and lab for decades and made optical pyrometers from scratch. The literature is immense, as is the experimental data; the theory is still being developed but it’s tough.Then along comes Climate Alchemy and claims a Radiation Field (aka Irradiance) is a real energy flux rather than the potential energy flux of that emitter to a sink at absolute zero. This is a basic failure of what to me was 1st year degree physics.
Engineers are taught to calculate the two S-B equations and the difference of RF is the predicted real IR flux. Trenberth adds the DOWN RF to the net real IR flux and gets the UP RF, claiming it’s a real rather than a potential energy flow. This was and is an appalling scientific mistake and the fudges are worse. All process engineers I have spoken too, agree this Energy Budget is wrong.
When ‘back radiation’ aka ‘IR Forcing’ increases, net surface IR emission decreases. To get the net heat transfer, surface temperature must increase to increase the other heat transfer modes. There can be no creation of energy. You can prove this by MODTRAN, written by professionals. it sets real total heat transfer from surface to lower atmosphere for 15 deg C surface temperature consistent with the right OLR as between 100 and 170 W/m^2 or so if you do some simple runs.
What climate Alchemy does is to force extra imaginary heat into the base and cools the top, apparently to prove the imaginary extended GHE exists when it can’t.

commieBob
April 8, 2014 12:35 pm

Willis Eschenbach says:
April 8, 2014 at 11:18 am
commieBob says:
April 8, 2014 at 10:43 am
None of the numbers in the diagram are direct measurements. They are all based on calculations. The budget, as illustrated, is a hypotheses.
Oh, not true in the slightest. The origin of each of the numbers is different. Their basis is described in the underlying document, Earth’s Global Energy Budget. People commenting without having read that are just guessing …

There is no instrument that will directly give any of the numbers in the illustration. They are ALL based on some kind of calculation. All the calculations are based on assumptions and all the measurements on which they are based have tolerances.
As an example, I give you one of the less problematic measurements: upwelling infrared. The instrument is in a satellite. It sees a small portion of the planet’s surface. The global number is based on integrating all the measurements taken as the satellite orbits the planet. So, we have a bunch of measurements taken at varying times. Even assuming that the instrument is perfect (it isn’t) we still have a mess of assumptions to sort out. We integrate the data over what period … a day, a week, a year, a decade? I guarantee that each will produce a different result, different enough that three significant digits is not warranted.

SkepticGoneWild
April 8, 2014 12:53 pm

Trenberth, besides being caught in lies about hurricanes and global warming (Climategate), is a science goof. He calls the diagram, “The global annual mean Earth’s energy budget”, when all the “flows” are in terms of power, not energy. The First Law of Thermodynamics relates to the conservation of “energy”, not power.

Alf
April 8, 2014 12:59 pm

So does Stephen Wilde need to be humiliated? The lack of humility was the first thing that made me suspicious of CAGWing blogs.

JohnG
April 8, 2014 1:00 pm

Steven Wilde is not a Slayer and his “physics” doesn’t follow what the Slayers criticize about the K&T Model. The problem is an ontological one: taking solar flux which impinges only in real time and over a hemisphere as a cosine distribution, but averaging it linearly over the entire Earth instead, produces a numerical value of temperature forcing (-18C) which wouldn’t even be able to melt ice, and is hence not physically meaningful. Hence the K&T style diagram isn’t physically meaningful nor is any physics it purports to demonstrate, or invent, physically meaningful. It is not ontological. The light bulb test is a really good one though, but you have to be careful about interpreting the results, scientifically.

Richard G
April 8, 2014 1:03 pm

Oh, that’s not right.
http://youtu.be/pXnJELh78qs

April 8, 2014 1:07 pm

Duster says:
I don’t think it falsifies the greenhouse conjecture.
Sorry for not making my post clearer. I was referring to the claim that a rise in CO2 would lead to runaway global warming.
Yes, CO2 causes some warming. But it is so minuscule that it cannot be measured — and the net result may well be global cooling. Really, how could it not be, based on your argument? Most re-emitted photons [‘back radiation’] escaped from the earth and troposphere, where they came from in the first place. They take their LWIR energy with them.
At current and projected concentrations, CO2 has no measurable effect. Any warming from human CO2 emissions is simply too small to measure, as this chart shows. Any minor warming from CO2 is swamped by other forcings, which is why every alarmist prediction has failed.

Max™
April 8, 2014 1:25 pm

Seems to me that the Earth is a mechanism for reducing the power of sunlight by turning it into longwave IR.
As the planet is blocking the sunlight that would normally pass through a given region of space, there is an imbalance, the energy can’t just fly straight through like neutrinos do, so it has to be absorbed and then emitted again at lower power.
As the planet is a sphere, at most it can emit half of what one hemisphere receives from each hemisphere (otherwise there would be no energy available for the shaded hemisphere to emit while the lit one was absorbing) and it does so in a less than perfectly efficient fashion.
What happens when you have a section of machinery or circuitry with lower efficiency than other parts?
Yup, it gets warmer.
It’s not as complicated as it is presented, as long as you remember everything flows downhill you can get the right answer eventually.

April 8, 2014 1:53 pm

Have to say there’s a very nasty attitude by some here to Stephen Wilde who has been the virtue of patience and has courteously countered the arguments against him without once getting as bitchy as the clique that runs this website. I have to say the arrogance and sneering condescension shown has put be right off this blog. It shows up people here as no different to the level that the Cookes and Nutchellis grope for. There though at least they are in a bitter contest with sworn enemies , here though Steven is a sceptic with a theory and this is how he gets treated with scorn and all those that don’t even grasp the science involved (I don’t but I’m not a bully) crawl out of the wood work to give the man a kicking to ingratiate themselves with their leaders. It pathetic and a sorry day for the blog. Roy in particular shows a very poor attitude sometimes for a so called Christian with the same vitriol that the Dawkins bandwagon uses.
Poor show all round.

Frank
April 8, 2014 1:55 pm

Andy: I think articles like these provide credibility to critics who claim that WUTW is “anti-science”. Steve Wilde’s gross mistakes in this article are his responsibility, but to some extent they become WUTW’s when you host them. Gross mistake = not understanding the difference between the energy flux provided by convection (100 W/m2) and the radiative energy flux provided by convection (0 W/m2).
If you feel it is appropriate to expose your readers to radical ideas like these, perhaps you should sponsor a debate between Steve Wilde and some other contributor, or include a rebuttal from some other contributor. Posts like this give knowledgable skeptics a bad name.

April 8, 2014 2:12 pm

Alf says:
“So does Stephen Wilde need to be humiliated? The lack of humility was the first thing that made me suspicious of CAGWing blogs”
Its almost like a set up, a slaughter , he must have felt pleased to his essay featured not knowing it was to have a feeding frenzy with all the so called ‘ Sunday scientist’ chomping on the leftovers
Absolutely, Alf, it’s disgusting and has made me very wary and sceptical of sceptics

gbaikie
April 8, 2014 2:12 pm

–One difficulty with these claims is that the author is looking at a different thing than Kiehl/Trenberth were looking at. The K/T budget is looking at the heat transfer from the surface to the atmosphere. Steven Wilde, on the other hand, seems to be looking at heat transfer within the atmosphere.—
Yes it seems no one is being clear about it.
–For example, when the surface is warmer than the atmosphere, it is constantly losing energy to the atmosphere through conduction/convection. This is not affected in the slightest by the fact that Steven mentions, which is that air warms when it descends. So what? The surface will still be losing heat to the atmosphere as long as it is warmed by the sun.–
But does diagram show this?
You could arrows going down in same location as the arrows going up. Wilde’s point is they balance out to zero. Regionally they cool but not globally. Or they are negative in tropics and positive elsewhere.
–The same is true about evaporation. When water on the surface evaporates, it cools the surface. Period. It doesn’t matter that “the moist adiabatic lapse rate during ascent is less than the dry lapse rate”. That’s true … but it doesn’t return energy to the surface, that would be a violation of the Second Law.–
What do mean? Of course it returns energy to surface.
I would say the formation of water droplets does allow heat to be radiated it space. Though such droplet aren’t selective in terms radiating to space. So they radiate and they absorbs energy. But terms of gas until such time as returns to returns to liquid state, the latent heat is stored.
–I find it quite bizarre that Steven Wilde claims that the earth’s surface doesn’t lose heat by either conduction/convection or evaporation, but purely by radiation. That flies in the face of all common sense as well as physics. That’s like claiming that humans aren’t cooled when our sweat evaporates, because of adiabatic lapse rate mumble mumble mumble …-
Ultimately for for energy to leave Earth it must be radiated. And H20 Gas converts it’s energy as gas when becomes a liquid. Though as H20 gas it transfers it’s kinetic energy to other gas molecules. And it absorb and re-radiate IR radiation as gas molecule.
What find bizarre is idea that light can increase the kinetic velocity of gas molecules in any way one could call significant- and it is increasing or decreasing the kinetic energy of gas is warming or cooling gases.
—The adiabatic lapse rate is a separate issue—the obvious reality is that both humans and the planetary surface are cooled by evaporation no matter what the lapse rate does. To claim otherwise reveals a serious, profound misunderstanding of the processes involved.–
Lapse rate is altered significantly because H20 as it is not as ideal gas at Earth temperature and pressure- as H20 has transitions between gas and liquid phases. H20 is sticky molecule.

April 8, 2014 2:16 pm

One last comment:
Anthony when you remarked to Stephen ‘if you can’t stand the heat’ did you tell him initially when I assumed he was informed that his essay would be featured that it wasn’t so much come into the kitchen for a coffee and a chat that the chief chefs were going to throw scalding fay over his head.
Was he aware or did you lure him in?
REPLY: He offered this essay as-is with no solicitation on my part of any kind, if he can’t stand behind his own words after they are ridiculed, then he’s got nothing.
All you hand-wringers out there should walk a mile in my shoes. I’m ridiculed whether I publish this junk or not. The slayers lambast me for not allowing this sort of stuff, others lambast me for allowing it to be pointed out as dreck.
And, if I hadn’t published it and allowed it to be exposed to some very critical review, it would likely show up somewhere else where it gets a pass.
-Anthony

WestHighlander
April 8, 2014 2:19 pm

I thought for a while this was for April 1
Trenberth’s diagram is KRAPP because it ignores the reality of a rotating sphere with both water, earth, ice, etc. in 3D. Trenberth tries to model something which is inherently dynamic with a static model. The climate of the earth would be unrecognizable in the absence of the constantly moving terminator between sun and darkness which moves both daily and annually and gives us a habitable planet. Take the average of light and dark and you don’t have anything meaningful.
However, the criticism of the model is full of ad hoc assertions about molecules not being at their proper height — sounded pre-Maxwellian

Frank
April 8, 2014 2:29 pm

Commie Bob: The amount of heat convected upwards is one of the simplest energy fluxes to measure. Simply take the amount of rain that falls on the earth in a year and calculate how much energy is released into the atmosphere when water vapor condensed to produce that rain. The only instrument you need is a meter stick to measure rainfall and the heat of vaporization of water that has been determined through numerous well-controlled laboratory experiments (not difficult, uncontrolled, non-transparent measurements in the atmosphere). It turns out that average precipitation is very close to 1 m per year. (Deserts get almost nothing, tropical rainforests 2+ m; so the mean must lie somewhere near 1 m). The power need to vaporize 1 cubic meter of water in one year is roughly 80 J/s (W), which is how Trenberth’s value was calculated. (The actual number is higher, because some precipitation falls as frozen water, which releases about 10% more heat than rain.)
There are thousands of independent measurements of radiative fluxes made with a variety of instruments. Sensible heat WAS not measured by Trenberth – it was chosen to produce an energy imbalance of about 1 W/m2 a guesstimate from how fast the planet is warming. In later work, he had to reduce the imbalance, because ARGO showed less heat flowing into the ocean than previously estimated. Trenberth claimed his value was in line with estimates from reanalysis, but he doesn’t use those number directly. Sensible heat is basically a fudge factors that doesn’t appear unreasonable.

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